SUMMARY TABLES
THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2005
Table S–1. Budget Totals
(Dollar amounts in billions) 2003 In billions of dollars: Receipts ....................................................... Outlays ......................................................... Deficit 1 .................................................... Gross Domestic Product (GDP) .............. As a percent of GDP: Receipts ....................................................... Outlays ......................................................... Deficit........................................................
1
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
1,782 2,158 375 10,828
1,798 2,319 521 11,466
2,036 2,400 364 12,042
2,206 2,473 268 12,641
2,351 2,592 241 13,279
2,485 2,724 239 13,973
2,616 2,853 237 14,702
16.5% 19.9% 3.5%
15.7% 20.2% 4.5%
16.9% 19.9% 3.0%
17.4% 19.6% 2.1%
17.7% 19.5% 1.8%
17.8% 19.5% 1.7%
17.8% 19.4% 1.6%
The Budget incorporates the HHS actuaries’ estimates for the Medicare Prescription Drug, Improvement, and Modernization Act of 2003. Because CBO’s 10–year cost estimates of this bill were significantly below the HHS actuaries’ estimates and because of the uncertainties involved in these estimates, Table S-13 also includes deficit calculations that reflect the lower CBO estimates.
365
366
Table S–2. Discretionary Totals
(Budget authority; dollar amounts in billions) Actual 2001 Discretionary budget authority: Homeland Security (non-Defense) .................. Department of Defense ....................................... Other Operations of Government .................... Total, Discretionary budget authority ........... Percent change by category: Homeland Security (non-Defense) .................. Department of Defense ....................................... Other Operations of Government .................... Total, Percent change ............................................... Supplementals: Homeland Security................................................ Defense and Other War on Terror ................... Non-Defense, non-Homeland ........................... Total, Supplemental funding ............................. Total, Discretionary budget authority with supplementals ..................................................... Percent change by category with supplementals: Homeland Security (non-Defense) .................. Department of Defense ....................................... Other Operations of Government .................... Total, Percent change ...............................................
*Less than $0.5 billion.
2002
2003
2005 2004 Enacted Proposed
2004–2005 Dollar Change
10 303 331 644
13 328 351 691
24 365 370 758
28 375 384 787
30 402 386 818
3 26 2 31
13.9% 5.3% 14.9% 10.2%
21.5% 8.3% 6.0% 7.3%
84.9% 11.5% 5.4% 9.8%
18.2% 2.7% 4.0% 3.8%
9.7% 7.1% 0.5% 3.9%
3 14 3 20
12 18 14 44
6 80 5 91
* 87 * 87
664
735
849
874
818
56
41.6% 10.3% 16.0% 13.6%
86.3% 9.1% 9.2% 10.7%
21.8% 28.9% 2.6% 15.6%
5.5% 3.7% 2.7% 2.9%
9.3% 13.1% 0.4% 6.4%
SUMMARY TABLES
THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2005
Table S–3. Agency Growth in Discretionary Spending
(Budget authority; dollar amounts in billions) Growth Actual Agency Agriculture ..................................................... Commerce..................................................... Defense .......................................................... Education....................................................... Energy ............................................................ Health and Human Services .................. Homeland Security..................................... Housing and Urban Development ........ Interior............................................................. Justice ............................................................. Labor ............................................................... State ................................................................ Transportation .............................................. Treasury ......................................................... Veterans Affairs ........................................... Corps of Engineers .................................... Environmental Protection Agency ........ Executive Office of the President.......... General Services Administration .......... International Assistance Programs ...... Judicial Branch ............................................ Legislative Branch ...................................... NASA .............................................................. National Science Foundation ................. Small Business Administration .............. Social Security Administration ............... Other Agencies............................................ Total, Discretionary Spending .......... Emergency Response Funds and Supplementals ........................................ 2001 19.2 5.1 302.5 40.1 20.0 54.0 14.0 28.4 10.3 18.4 11.9 7.7 14.6 10.3 22.4 4.7 7.8 0.3 0.2 12.6 4.0 2.8 14.3 4.4 0.9 6.0 7.0 643.8 2002 20.1 5.4 327.8 48.5 20.9 59.5 15.7 29.4 10.5 18.6 12.1 9.0 12.8 10.5 23.8 4.5 7.9 0.3 0.2 12.7 4.3 3.0 14.8 4.8 0.8 6.4 6.8 691.0 2003 21.7 5.6 365.3 53.1 21.9 65.7 22.0 30.1 10.5 19.0 11.8 9.2 13.5 10.7 26.4 4.6 8.1 0.3 1.3 13.6 4.6 3.4 15.3 5.3 0.8 6.7 7.9 758.5 Estimate 2004 20.7 5.8 375.3 55.7 23.3 69.3 27.1 30.4 10.6 19.3 11.7 9.3 13.9 11.2 29.1 4.6 8.4 0.3 0.5 15.7 4.8 3.6 15.4 5.6 0.8 7.2 8.0 787.3 2005 19.1 5.7 401.7 57.3 23.6 68.2 28.3 31.3 10.8 18.7 11.9 10.3 13.3 10.8 29.7 4.0 7.8 0.3 0.2 19.3 5.4 4.0 16.2 5.7 0.7 7.6 6.5 818.4 2004 2005 Change 1.7 0.1 26.5 1.7 0.3 1.1 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.6 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.2 3.7 0.6 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.4 1.5 31.1 Percent 8.1% 1.0% 7.1% 3.0% 1.2% 1.6% 4.6% 2.8% 1.9% 3.1% 1.3% 10.7% 3.9% 3.6% 1.8% 13.1% 7.2% 0.5% 49.2% 23.5% 11.5% 12.3% 5.6% 3.0% 10.4% 5.9% 19.1% 3.9% Average Cumulative
2001–2005 2001–2005 0.2% 2.9% 7.3% 9.3% 4.2% 6.0% 19.3% 2.5% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 7.3% 2.1% 1.1% 7.3% 4.1% 0.2% 6.8% 5.3% 11.3% 7.8% 9.8% 3.3% 6.7% 6.8% 5.9% 2.0% 6.2% 0.9% 12.1% 32.8% 43.0% 17.7% 26.2% 102.3% 10.3% 5.7% 2.1% 0.4% 32.8% 8.3% 4.3% 32.5% 15.4% 1.0% 30.2% 22.8% 53.6% 35.2% 45.4% 14.0% 29.7% 24.7% 25.8% 7.6% 27.1%
20.0
43.8
90.9
87.3
367
368
Table S–4. Percentage Year-to-Year Growth in Discretionary Budget Authority
2000 to 2001 13% 41% 5% 37% 13% 19% 4% 34% 21% 14% 36% 1% 40% 12% 7% 14% 3% 4% 8% 8% 9% 5% 13% 1% 7% 23% 5% 14% 15% 10.2% 13.6% 2001 to 2002 4% 6% 8% 21% 4% 10% 12% 4% 2% 1% 2% 16% 12% 2% 6% 4% 1% 5% 1% 9% 10% 4% 8% 15% 6% 3% 8% 21% 6% 7.3% 10.7% 2002 to 2003 8% 3% 11% 10% 5% 10% 39% 2% * 2% 2% 3% 5% 2% 11% 3% 2% 14% 7% 6% 13% 4% 11% * 5% 33% 11% 85% 5% 9.8% 15.6% 2003 to 2004 4% 4% 3% 5% 6% 5% 23% 1% 1% 2% 1% * 3% 5% 10% 1% 3% 8% 15% 5% 5% * 5% 1% 7% 9% 3% 18% 4% 3.8% 3.0% 2004 to 2005 8% 1% 7% 3% 1% 2% 5% 3% 2% 3% 1% 11% 4% 4% 2% 13% 7% * 23% 12% 12% 6% 3% 10% 6% 21% 7% 10% 1% 3.9% 6.4% Average Growth 2001 2005 * 3% 7% 9% 4% 6% 19% 2% 1% 1% * 7% 2% 1% 7% 4% * 7% 11% 8% 10% 3% 7% 7% 6% 2%
Agency Agriculture ................................................................... Commerce ................................................................... Defense ........................................................................ Education..................................................................... Energy .......................................................................... Health and Human Services ................................ Homeland Security................................................... Housing and Urban Development ...................... Interior........................................................................... Justice ........................................................................... Labor ............................................................................. State .............................................................................. Transportation ............................................................ Treasury ....................................................................... Veterans Affairs ......................................................... Corps of Engineers .................................................. Environmental Protection Agency ...................... Executive Office of the President ........................ International Assistance Programs .................... Judicial Branch .......................................................... Legislative Branch .................................................... NASA ............................................................................ National Science Foundation ............................... Small Business Administration ............................ Social Security Administration ............................. Other Agencies.......................................................... Percent Growth by Category: Defense (DOD) .......................................................... Homeland Security................................................... Non-Defense, non-Homeland .............................. Total, excluding emergency supplementals......... Total, including emergency supplementals ..........
*0.5 percent or less
SUMMARY TABLES
7% 31% 4% 6% 5%
THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2005
Table S–5. Discretionary Proposals by Appropriations Subcommittee
(Budget authority in billions of dollars) 2005 2004 Change: Enacted Proposed 2004–2005 17.7 38.7 366.1 0.5 27.3 17.5 27.1 20.0 140.9 3.5 9.3 28.7 90.1 — 787.3 87.3 16.4 39.4 392.5 0.6 27.0 21.3 28.3 20.0 141.8 4.0 9.5 26.0 92.0 0.4 818.4 — 1.2 0.7 26.4 * 0.3 3.8 1.3 0.1 0.9 0.4 0.2 2.7 1.9 0.4 31.1
Appropriations Subcommittee Agriculture and Rural Development ................................................................................... Commerce, Justice, State, and the Judiciary ................................................................. Defense ........................................................................................................................................ District of Columbia .................................................................................................................. Energy and Water Development.......................................................................................... Foreign Operations ................................................................................................................... Homeland Security ................................................................................................................... Interior and Related Agencies .............................................................................................. Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education .................................................... Legislative Branch..................................................................................................................... Military Construction ................................................................................................................ Transportation, Treasury, and General Government .................................................... Veterans Affairs, Housing and Urban Development ..................................................... Allowances .................................................................................................................................. Total, excluding supplemental funding
......................................................................
Supplemental funding..............................................................................................................
*0.5 percent or less
369
370
Table S–6. Homeland Security Funding by Agency
(Budget authority in millions of dollars) 2003 Actual Homeland Security Funding: Department of Agriculture ........................................................ Department of Commerce ........................................................ Department of Defense-Military 1 ......................................... Department of Energy ............................................................... Department of Health and Human Services...................... Department of Homeland Security ........................................ Department of Justice ................................................................ Department of State ................................................................... Department of the Treasury ..................................................... Department of Transportation ................................................. Department of Veterans Affairs .............................................. Corps of Engineers ..................................................................... Environmental Protection Agency ......................................... Social Security Administration ................................................ National Aeronautics and Space Administration .............. National Science Foundation .................................................. Other Agencies............................................................................. Total, Homeland Security Funding ...................................... Less Department of Defense-Military 1 ............................... Less Department of Homeland Security Project BioShield 2 ................................................................................ Total, Homeland Security Funding, excluding Defense and BioShield .......................................................... Less Mandatory Homeland Security Funding 3 .............. Less Discretionary Fee-Funded Activities 4 ..................... Net Non-Defense Discretionary Homeland Security Budget Authority ......................................................................
1 2 3 4
2004 Estimate Supplemental
2005 Proposed
Supplemental
300 112 8,442 1,247 4,002 18,652 1,893 633 80 383 154 36 133 132 205 285 429 37,118 8,442 — 28,676 1,760 3,414 23,502
110 — — 162 142 4,411 457 1 — — — 39 — — — — 7 5,329 — — 5,329 — 705 6,034
327 131 7,024 1,363 4,109 23,492 2,166 701 90 284 271 103 123 143 191 328 461 41,307 7,024 885 33,398 1,948 3,655 27,795
— — — — — 91 16 — — — — — — — — — — 107 — — 107 — — 107
651 150 8,023 1,497 4,276 27,214 2,581 955 87 243 297 84 97 155 207 344 525 47,386 8,023 2,528 36,835 2,261 4,081 30,493
SUMMARY TABLES
Defense homeland security funding declines in 2004 due to one-time force protection investments in 2003. The Administration is proposing a separate BEA category for the DHS Bioshield program (see Chapter 14 in the Analytical Perspectives volume). Mandatory homeland security programs include Agriculture Quarantine and Inspections, Border Protection, and Immigration Enforcement. Discretionary fee-funded homeland security programs include Visa Processing, Airport Security, and Social Security physical and computer security measures.
THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2005
Table S–7. Adjustments of 2004 Discretionary Levels
(Budget authority in billions of dollars)
CBO Estimate of 2004 Likely Enacted ................................................................................................................................ Estimating differences: Receipt estimates in housing and homeland security programs ...................................................................... Differences due to scoring interpretations ................................................................................................................ Other technical scoring differences ............................................................................................................................. OMB Estimate of 2004 Enacted ............................................................................................................................................ Post-enactment adjustments: Reclassifications and technical reestimates: Medicare administrative costs for P.L. 108–173, shift mandatory to discretionary ................................ Remove Project BioShield from discretionary category .................................................................................. Rebase appropriations changes to Justice and USDA mandatory programs ......................................... Technical revisions ........................................................................................................................................................ Revised OMB Estimate of 2004 Enacted Current Year Levels ..................................................................................
786.0
0.9 0.3 0.1 784.9
1.5 0.9 1.5 0.3 787.3
371
372
Table S–8. Mandatory Proposals
(In millions of dollars) Total 2005–2009 2005–2014
2004 Agriculture: Forest Service Recreation Fee Proposal ........................ Extend expiring National School Lunch Act provisions ............................................................................... Subtotal, Agriculture ........................................................... Education: Reform the Federal Student Loan Programs to Help Students Afford College: Expand Teacher Loan Forgiveness .............................. Retain Variable Interest Rates ........................................ Increase Loan Limits for First-Year Students from $2,625 to $3,000 ............................................................. Standardize FFEL and DL Extended Repayment Plans .................................................................................... Additional Benefits to Students ...................................... Subtotal............................................................................... Standardize Guaranty Agency Insurance Premium .... Eliminate Rollover of Tax-Exempt Special Allowance. Other Student Loan Reforms ............................................... Subtotal, Education............................................................. Energy: Reclassification of Nuclear Waste Disposal Fees as discretionary .......................................................................... Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), lease bonuses ................................................................................... Subtotal, Energy .................................................................. Health and Human Services (HHS): Medicaid/State Children’s Health Insurance Program: Medicaid proposals ............................................................. Program Integrity ................................................................. Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Reauthorization ....................................................................
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
— 11 11
— 18 18
17 — 17
12 — 12
7 — 7
2 — 2
38 18 20
— 18 18
— — — — — — — — — —
227 — 20 184 251 682 497 490 116 189
50 103 58 112 286 609 352 448 65 256
52 200 75 33 373 667 337 418 92 180
54 198 78 41 293 664 339 430 95 200
57 175 82 86 287 687 341 456 90 200
440 676 313 390 1,490 3,309 1,866 2,242 226 1,025
763 1,783 775 1,022 3,062 7,405 3,952 4,949 807 2,303
— — —
749 — 749
754 1,200 446
757 — 757
767 — 767
767 — 767
3,794 1,200 2,594
7,655 1,200 6,455
SUMMARY TABLES
175 — 96
889 1,542 279
846 1,737 328
959 1,924 337
1,098 2,120 350
1,252 2,327 361
5,044 9,650 1,657
7,863 23,553 3,390
THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2005
Table S–8. Mandatory Proposals—Continued
(In millions of dollars) 2004 Healthy Marriages: Healthy Marriage and Family Formation Initiative ... State-based Abstinence Grants ..................................... Child Support Enforcement: Increase Collections and Improve Program Effectiveness ........................ Subtotal, Healthy marriages ........................................ Foster Care: Clarify Statutory Eligibility Definition ....... Child Welfare Program Option ............................................ Compensation for 2000–01 Military Wage Credits (non-paygo): Payment to Medicare trust funds ................................... Medicare trust fund receipts ............................................ Subtotal, HHS................................................................... Homeland Security: Extend Bureau of Customs and Border Protection’s Fees .......................................................................................... Interior: ANWR, lease bonuses: State of Alaska’s share: Receipts.............................................................................. Expenditures ..................................................................... Federal share ........................................................................ Permanent Recreation Fee Authority ............................... Correct trust accounting deficiencies in individual Indian money investments................................................ Increase Indian Gaming Commission Fees 1 ............... Bureau of Land Management Land Sale Authority: Receipts .................................................................................. Expenditures ......................................................................... Subtotal, Interior .............................................................. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Total 2005–2009 2005–2014
118 9 — 109 — —
59 30 63 92 67 7
13 45 10 68 69 90
38 49 70 157 72 120
40 50 49 139 75 26
40 50 39 129 78 195
72 224 105 401 361 4
272 474 248 994 807 —
— — 163
181 181 526
— — 474
— — 422
— — 633
— — 857
181 181 2,912
181 181 12,113
—
820
1,391
1,448
1,507
1,570
6,736
15,691
— — — — 6 — — — 6
— — — — — — 24 6 18
1,201 1,201 1 19 — 3 33 17 33
1 1 1 3 — 4 38 25 13
101 101 101 32 — 5 48 32 80
1 1 1 70 — 5 48 38 64
1,304 1,304 104 80 — 17 191 118 80
1,359 1,359 159 465 — 42 471 379 256
373
374
Table S–8. Mandatory Proposals—Continued
(In millions of dollars) 2004 Labor: Unemployment Insurance fiscal integrity......................... Federal Employees’ Compensation Act ........................... Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation ............................ Black Lung Disability Trust Fund debt refinancing (non-paygo): Black Lung Disability Trust Fund .................................... Interest receipts on repayable advances .................... Subtotal, Labor................................................................. Treasury: Outlay effects of refundable tax credits: 1 Health care tax credit ......................................................... Child tax credit ...................................................................... Earned income tax credit .................................................. Contingent offset for refundable portion of the health care tax credit ....................................................................... Move Asset Forfeiture Fund to the Department of Justice: Treasury Asset Forfeiture Fund ...................................... Justice Asset Forfeiture Fund ......................................... Extend the Rum Carryover for Puerto Rico .................... Subtotal, Treasury ........................................................... Veterans Affairs: Reverse Allen Case providing compensation for drug and alcohol abuse-related disabilities .......................... Limit home loan guarantees to one-time use ................ Eliminate the “45 Day Rule” for Death Pension ............ Accelerated education benefit payment........................... Subtotal, Veterans Affairs ............................................. Army Corps of Engineers: Additional user fees ................................................................. Program expenditure of fees ................................................ Subtotal, Army Corps of Engineers .......................... 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Total 2005–2009 2005–2014
— — —
11 7 —
23 15 39
35 15 160
37 22 154
39 28 163
145 87 516
371 290 310
— — —
2,764 2,764 18
517 517 77
512 512 210
506 506 213
507 507 230
722 722 748
2,121 2,121 971
— — — —
82 — 440 82
3,760 145 131 3,760
5,041 147 130 5,041
6,388 149 119 6,388
7,133 150 134 7,133
22,404 591 74 22,404
65,355 1,368 643 65,355
— — 58 58
251 251 79 361
251 251 21 7
251 251 — 17
251 251 — 30
251 251 — 16
1,255 1,255 100 417
2,510 2,510 100 625
51 — — — 51 — — —
162 — 1 * 161 7 — 7
235 — 1 * 234 7 6 1
259 — 1 * 258 7 7 —
304 — 1 * 303 7 7 —
321 — 1 * 320 7 7 —
1,281 — 6 * 1,275 35 27 8
3,130 91 13 * 3,026 70 62 8
SUMMARY TABLES
THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2005
Table S–8. Mandatory Proposals—Continued
(In millions of dollars) 2004 Federal Communications Commission (FCC): Analog Spectrum Lease Fee ............................................... Extend Spectrum Auction Authority and Authorize Fees .......................................................................................... Spectrum Relocation Fund ................................................... Subtotal, FCC ....................................................................... Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation: Merge Bank Insurance Fund and Savings Association Insurance Fund .................................................................... Social Security Administration (SSA): Cross-program recovery of SSA overpayments: On-Budget ......................................................................... Off-Budget (non-paygo) ................................................ Close Loophole that Allows Some Workers to Avoid Government Pension Offset (non-paygo) ................... Reduce Improper Payments by Requiring Reporting of Non-Social Security Covered Pension Income (non-paygo) ........................................................................... Compensation for 2000–01 Military Wage Credits (non-paygo): On-Budget ......................................................................... Off-Budget ......................................................................... Supplemental Security Income Pre-Effectuation Reviews and Other Technical Adjustments ................ Extend SSI Eligibility to Refugees and Asylees to eight Years after Entry ......................................... Mandate Expedited, Electronic Reporting of Death Information by States: On-Budget ......................................................................... Off-Budget (non-paygo) ................................................ Subtotal, SSA ................................................................... 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Total 2005–2009 2005–2014
— — — —
— — — —
— 50 200 150
500 1,850 400 1,750
500 1,700 500 1,700
480 3,100 600 2,980
1,480 400 1,700 620
2,580 5,525 2,500 5,605
—
—
568
742
60
63
1,187
861
— — —
49 2 1
69 3 3
48 3 5
11 3 7
8 3 9
185 14 25
211 27 109
—
—
—
215
323
282
820
2,313
— — — —
759 759 3 64
— — 26 68
— — 58 74
— — 99 —
— — 142 —
759 759 328 206
759 759 1,803 206
* * *
* * 9
* * 33
* * 255
* * 443
* * 444
* * 1,166
* * 4,257
375
376
Table S–8. Mandatory Proposals—Continued
(In millions of dollars) 2004 Indirect Impact of Other Proposals (Third Scorecard): Power Marketing Administrations to directly fund Corps of Engineers and Bureau of Reclamation’s hydro operations and maintenance expenses and other proposals..................................................................... Total, Mandatory Proposals ................................................. Paygo ............................................................................................ Non-Paygo .................................................................................. Spending effects of permanent extension of 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, included in baseline: Child tax credit 1 .................................................................. Earned income tax credit 1 .............................................. Total
.............................................................................................
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Total 2005–2009 2005–2014
— 187 181 6
168 1,156 1,321 165
163 2,074 2,231 157
150 584 657 73
147 862 676 186
160 5,691 5,557 134
788 9,199 9,128 71
1,585 35,424 34,560 864
— — —
— — —
4,265 — 4,265
4,131 — 4,131
4,003 — 4,003
3,936 — 3,936
16,335 — 16,335
47,809 5,676 53,485
* $500,000 or less. 1 Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the outlay effect is shown here.
SUMMARY TABLES
THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2005
Table S–9. Effect of Proposals on Receipts
(In millions of dollars) Total 2005–2009 2005–2014
2004 Make Permanent the Tax Cuts Enacted in 2001 and 2003, assumed in the baseline: Extend certain provisions through 2010: Child tax credit 1 ................................................................... Marriage penalty relief ......................................................... 10 percent individual income tax rate bracket............. Total, extend certain provisions through 2010 ........ Permanently extend certain provisions: Dividends tax rate structure ............................................... Capital gains tax rate structure......................................... Expensing for small business............................................ Marginal individual income tax rate reductions .......... Child tax credit 2 ................................................................... Marriage penalty relief 3 ..................................................... Education incentives ............................................................ Repeal of estate and generation-skipping transfer taxes, and modification of gift taxes ........................... Modifications of pension plans ......................................... Other incentives for families and children ..................... Total, permanent extensions ......................................... Total, extensions of tax cuts enacted in 2001 and 2003, assumed in baseline .......................... Tax Incentives: Simplify and encourage saving: Expand tax-free savings opportunities .......................... Consolidate employer-based savings accounts ......... Establish Individual Development Accounts (IDAs) .. Total simplify and encourage saving ..........................
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
— — — —
2,166 5,318 4,005 11,489
8,930 6,634 5,981 21,545
9,023 3,883 6,435 19,341
9,067 1,850 4,036 14,953
8,325 423 2,956 11,704
37,511 18,108 23,413 79,032
42,079 18,108 27,343 87,530
— — — — — — — — — — — —
498 — 226 — — — 11 1,000 — — 287 11,776
486 — 3,336 — — — 16 1,609 — — 4,475 26,020
485 — 5,711 — — — 22 1,732 — — 6,980 26,321
642 5,268 4,102 — — — 24 1,977 — — 10,729 25,682
17,272 7,366 3,205 — — — 37 2,244 — — 30,124 41,828
15,161 12,634 16,128 — — — 110 8,562 — — 52,595 131,627
81,280 49,970 24,798 395,269 72,786 32,426 6,758 180,111 1,804 3,531 848,733 936,263
— — — —
3,949 214 134 3,601
8,192 318 286 7,588
5,488 337 326 4,825
2,798 358 300 2,140
685 380 255 50
21,112 1,607 1,301 18,204
5,558 11,763 1,380 7,585
377
378
Table S–9. Effect of Proposals on Receipts—Continued
(In millions of dollars) 2004 Invest in health care: Provide refundable tax credit for the purchase of health insurance 4 ............................................................ Provide an above-the-line deduction for high-deductible insurance premiums ......................... Provide an above-the-line deduction for long-term care insurance premiums ............................................... Provide an additional personal exemption to home caregivers of family members ....................................... Allow the orphan drug tax credit for certain pre-designation expenses .............................................. Clarify the Health Coverage Tax Credit 5 ..................... Total invest in health care............................................... Provide incentives for charitable giving: Provide charitable contribution deduction for nonitemizers ........................................................................ Permit tax-free withdrawals from IRAs for charitable contributions........................................................................ Expand and increase the enhanced charitable deduction for contributions of food inventory .......... Reform excise tax based on investment income of private foundations ........................................................... Modify tax on unrelated business taxable income of charitable remainder trusts ............................................ Modify basis adjustment to stock of S corporations contributing appreciated property ............................... Repeal the $150 million limitation on qualified 501(c)(3) bonds ................................................................. Repeal certain restrictions on the use of qualified 501(c)(3) bonds for residential rental property ....... Total provide incentives for charitable giving........... 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Total 2005–2009 2005–2014
— — — — — — —
24 173 68 71 — — 336
1,417 1,764 489 460 — — 4,130
1,059 2,014 805 398 — — 4,276
854 2,292 1,572 398 — — 5,116
632 2,501 2,435 415 — — 5,983
3,986 8,744 5,369 1,742 1 — 19,841
4,700 24,775 21,428 3,759 2 — 54,662
— 68 — — — — — — 68
1,248 450 42 133 8 21 8 5 1,915
1,103 341 87 83 5 13 10 6 1,648
1,111 327 96 84 6 15 11 12 1,662
1,144 330 106 86 6 18 10 18 1,718
1,173 329 116 90 6 21 10 25 1,770
5,779 1,777 447 476 31 88 49 66 8,713
12,036 3,498 1,224 1,009 68 239
SUMMARY TABLES
94 299 18,467
THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2005
Table S–9. Effect of Proposals on Receipts—Continued
(In millions of dollars) 2004 Strengthen education: Extend, increase, and expand the above-the-line deduction for qualified out-of-pocket classroom expenses .............................................................................. Encourage telecommuting: Exclude from income the value of employer-provided computers, software, and peripherals ....................... Increase housing opportunities: Provide tax credit for developers of affordable single-family housing ....................................................... Protect the environment: Extend permanently expensing of brownfields remediation costs .............................................................. Exclude 50 percent of gains from the sale of property for conservation purposes ........................... Total protect the environment ....................................... Increase energy production and promote energy conservation: Extend and modify the tax credit for producing electricity from certain sources .................................... Provide tax credit for residential solar energy systems................................................................................. Modify treatment of nuclear decommissioning funds Provide tax credit for purchase of certain hybrid and fuel cell vehicles ................................................................ Provide tax credit for energy produced from landfill gas .......................................................................................... Provide tax credit for combined heat and power property ................................................................................ Extend excise tax exemption (credit) for ethanol 5 .... 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Total 2005–2009 2005–2014
23
229
240
249
260
263
1,241
2,611
—
27
45
43
48
55
218
668
—
7
81
327
776
1,352
2,543
16,409
178 — 178
243 45 288
212 88 300
201 101 302
191 58 249
181 — 181
1,028 292 1,320
1,858 292 2,150
— — — — — — —
401 12 193 79 34 154 —
337 11 147 223 67 107 —
305 17 154 376 91 64 —
278 23 162 556 104 62 —
139 10 169 542 117 13 —
1,460 73 825 1,776 413 400 —
2,175 73 1,767 2,211 737 349 —
379
380
Table S–9. Effect of Proposals on Receipts—Continued
(In millions of dollars) 2004 Permit electric utilities to defer gain from sales of electric transmission property ...................................... Modify tax treatment of certain income of electric cooperatives ........................................................................ Total increase energy production and promote energy conservation .................................................... Total tax incentives ....................................................... Simplify the Tax Laws for Families: Establish uniform definition of a qualifying child 6 ........ Simplify adoption tax benefits................................................ Eliminate household maintenance test for head-of-household filing status ........................................ Reduce computational complexity of refundable child tax credit 7 ............................................................................... Simplify EITC eligibility requirements regarding filing status, presence of children, investment income, and work and immigration status 8 ................................ Simplify the taxation of dependents .................................... Consolidate rules for lifetime learning credit, Hope credit, and education expense deductions, and simplify other higher education provisions ................... Allow annual reporting and payment of combined State and Federal unemployment insurance taxes by employers of household employees ......................... Simplify taxation of capital gains on collectibles, small business stock, and other assets..................................... Total simplify the tax laws for families ............................ Strengthen the Employer-Based Pension System: Ensure fair treatment of older workers in cash balance conversions and protect defined benefit plans ........... Improve the accuracy of pension liability measures...... Total strengthen the employer-based pension system . 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Total 2005–2009 2005–2014
11 — 11 280
475 14 1,362 563
615 20 1,527 383
532 21 1,560 3,594
227 22 1,434 7,461
100 23 913 10,467
1,749 100 6,796 22,468
361 235 7,186 109,738
— — — —
38 4 123 —
34 39 297 —
29 40 284 —
20 42 285 —
9 43 281 —
130 168 1,270 —
142 411 2,555 21
— —
64 11
36 25
35 20
32 25
33 43
72 124
272 498
—
19
94
311
294
282
1,000
2,558
— — —
20 4 155
1 5 521
1 11 709
1 1 700
1 17 709
24 6 2,794
30 35 6,480
SUMMARY TABLES
— 8,537 8,537
— 12,297 12,297
— 7,340 7,340
— 3,042 3,042
— 1,586 1,586
— 5,467 5,467
— 15,626 15,626
2,373 15,869 13,496
THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2005
Table S–9. Effect of Proposals on Receipts—Continued
(In millions of dollars) 2004 Close Loopholes and Improve Tax Compliance: Combat abusive tax avoidance transactions.................... Limit related party interest deductions ............................... Modify qualification rules for tax-exempt property-casualty insurance companies ....................... Prevent abusive overvaluations on donations of patents and other intellectual property .......................... Prevent overvaluations and other abuses in charitable donations of used vehicles ................................................. Reform the treatment for leasing transactions with tax-indifferent parties............................................................ Ensure foreign subsidiaries of U.S. companies cannot inappropriately avoid U.S. tax on foreign earnings invested in U.S. property through use of the exception for bank deposits ............................................... Modify tax rules for individuals who give up U.S. citizenship or green card status ....................................... Require increased reporting for noncash charitable contributions ............................................................................ Clarify and simplify qualified tuition programs ................. Total close loopholes and improve tax compliance ... Tax Administration, Unemployment Insurance, and Other: Improve tax administration: Implement IRS administrative reforms........................... Increase continuous levy for certain Federal payments .............................................................................. Permit private collection agencies to engage in specific, limited activities to support IRS collection efforts..................................................................................... Total improve tax administration .................................. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Total 2005–2009 2005–2014
— — — — — 340
46 51 67 432 158 1,591
63 93 114 270 102 2,712
85 146 116 273 105 3,285
113 203 119 277 108 3,565
128 265 121 287 112 3,766
435 656 537 1,539 585 14,919
1,071 3,116 1,184 3,207 1,197 33,385
— 1 — — 341
24 23 49 7 2,346
21 20 31 12 3,438
22 22 32 13 4,099
22 24 33 13 4,477
23 25 34 17 4,778
112 114 179 62 19,138
234 272 367 194 44,227
— —
52 10
47 18
46 19
47 20
49 20
241 87
505 202
— —
— 62
47 112
151 216
190 257
153 222
541 869
1,531 2,238
381
382
Table S–9. Effect of Proposals on Receipts—Continued
(In millions of dollars) 2004 Strengthen financial integrity of unemployment insurance: Strengthen the financial integrity of the unemployment insurance system by reducing tax avoidance and improper benefit payments 9 ......... Other proposals: Increase Indian gaming activity fees .............................. Total tax administration, unemployment insurance, and other .................................................... Reauthorize Funding for the Highway Trust Fund: Deposit full amount of excise tax imposed on gasohol in the Highway Trust Fund 9 .............................................. Impose additional registration requirements on the transfer of tax-exempt fuel by pipeline, vessel, or barge 9 ...................................................................................... Repeal installment method for payment of heavy highway vehicle use tax 9 ................................................... Allow tax-exempt financing for private highway projects and rail-truck transfer facilities ......................... Total reauthorize funding for the Highway Trust Fund .. Expiring Provisions (excludes proposals assumed in the baseline): Minimum tax relief for individuals ......................................... Research & Experimentation (R&E) tax credit ................ Repeal the disallowance of certain deductions of mutual life insurance companies...................................... Combined work opportunity/welfare-to-work tax credit DC tax incentives ....................................................................... Authority to issue Qualified Zone Academy Bonds ....... Deduction for corporate donations of computer technology ................................................................................ 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Total 2005–2009 2005–2014
—
—
2
108
142
120
368
216
— —
— 62
4 114
4 328
5 404
5 347
18 1,255
43 2,065
—
—
648
666
681
699
2,694
6,443
— 407 — 407
76 30 20 86
93 31 49 723
96 32 77 717
91 31 94 709
87 32 97 721
443 156 337 2,956
747 341 619 6,912
86 672 — 12 47 2 —
9,383 3,610 85 187 97 9 180
13,881 5,187 51 268 54 15 46
— 6,291 48 162 7 22 —
— 7,129 45 86 9 28 —
— 7,775 43 46 24 30 —
23,264 29,992 272 749 191 104 226
23,264 78,351 471 768 363 254 226
SUMMARY TABLES
THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2005
Table S–9. Effect of Proposals on Receipts—Continued
(In millions of dollars) 2004 Net operating loss offset of 100 percent of alternative minimum taxable income .................................................... IRS user fees ............................................................................... Disclosure of tax return information related to terrorist activity 5 .................................................................................... Abandoned mine reclamation fees ...................................... Authority to issue Liberty Zone Bonds ............................... Excise tax on coal 9 .................................................................. Total extend other expiring provisions ............................ Promote Trade: Implement free trade agreements with Morocco, Australia, and Central American countries 9 ............... Total budget proposals, including proposals assumed in the baseline ................................................ Total budget proposals, excluding proposals assumed in the baseline ................................................ 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Total 2005–2009 2005–2014 370 214 — 1,254 221 — 53,921 82 464 — 2,550 616 180 101,037
1,326 — — — — — 2,145
755 32 — 239 8 — 14,043
101 44 — 245 27 — 19,341
203 45 — 252 45 — 6,075
154 46 — 256 62 — 6,903
129 47 — 262 79 — 7,559
— 6,860 6,860
389 12,135 359
583 35,233 9,213
675 29,188 2,867
749 37,491 11,809
831 61,015 19,187
3,227 175,062 43,435
8,305 1,122,115 185,852
* $500,000 or less. 1 Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the receipt effect is shown here. The outlay effect is $4,265 million for 2006, $4,131 million for 2007, $4,003 million for 2008, $3,936 million for 2009, $16,335 million for 2005–2009 and $18,906 million for 2005–2014. 2 Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the receipt effect is shown here. The outlay effect is $28,903 million for 2005–2014. 3 Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the receipt effect is shown here. The outlay effect is $5,676 million for 2005–2014. 4 Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the receipt effect is shown here. The outlay effect is $82 million for 2005, $3,760 million for 2006, $5,041 million for 2007, $6,388 million for 2008, $7,133 million for 2009, $22,404 million for 2005–2009 and $65,355 million for 2005–2014. 5 Policy proposal with a receipt effect of zero. 6 Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the receipt effect is shown here. The outlay effect is $36 million for 2006, $36 million for 2007, $36 million for 2008, $37 million for 2009, $145 million for 2005–2009 and $333 million for 2005–2014. 7 Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the receipt effect is shown here. The outlay effect is -$181 million for 2006, -$183 million for 2007, -$185 million for 2008, -$187 million for 2009, -$736 million for 2005–2009 and -$1,701 million for 2005–2014. 8 Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the receipt effect is shown here. The outlay effect is -$440 million for 2005, $131 million for 2006, $130 million for 2007, $119 million for 2008, $134 million for 2009, $74 million for 2005–2009 and $643 million for 2005–2014. 9 Net of income offsets.
383
384
Table S–10. Receipts by Source—Summary
(In billions of dollars) 2003 Actual 793.7 131.8 713.0 (189.1) (523.8) 67.5 22.0 19.9 34.5 — Estimate 2004 765.4 168.7 732.4 (198.4) (534.0) 70.8 23.9 22.6 34.3 20.0 2005 873.8 230.2 793.9 (218.8) (575.1) 73.2 21.4 22.1 36.5 15.0 2006 956.5 250.0 834.0 (230.9) (603.1) 75.8 23.9 24.4 41.2 — 2007 1,049.3 251.0 878.7 (242.4) (636.3) 77.9 21.5 26.2 46.2 — 2008 1,133.4 252.1 918.8 (251.2) (667.6) 80.0 22.2 27.6 51.2 — 2009 1,209.9 255.7 960.2 (261.2) (698.9) 82.2 23.6 30.0 54.8 —
Source Individual income taxes............................... Corporation income taxes .......................... Social insurance and retirement receipts ......................................................... (On-budget) ............................................ (Off-budget) ............................................ Excise taxes .................................................... Estate and gift taxes .................................... Customs duties .............................................. Miscellaneous receipts................................ Adjustment for revenue uncertainty 1 ...
Total, receipts ................................................. 1,782.3 1,798.1 2,036.3 2,205.7 2,350.8 2,485.3 2,616.4 (On-budget) ............................................ (1,258.5) (1,264.1) (1,461.2) (1,602.5) (1,714.5) (1,817.7) (1,917.5) (Off-budget) ............................................ (523.8) (534.0) (575.1) (603.1) (636.3) (667.6) (698.9)
1
These amounts reflect an additional adjustment to receipts beyond what the economic and tax models forecast and have been made in the interest of cautious and prudent forecasting.
SUMMARY TABLES
THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2005
Table S–11. Comparison of Economic Assumptions
(Calendar years) Projections 2004 GDP (billions of current dollars): CBO January ....................................................................................................... Blue Chip Consensus January 1 ................................................................. 2005 Budget......................................................................................................... Real GDP (chain-weighted): 2 CBO January ....................................................................................................... Blue Chip Consensus January 1 .................................................................. 2005 Budget......................................................................................................... Chain-weighted GDP Price Index: 2 CBO January ....................................................................................................... Blue Chip Consensus January 1 .................................................................. 2005 Budget......................................................................................................... Consumer Price Index (all-urban): 2 CBO January ....................................................................................................... Blue Chip Consensus January 1 .................................................................. 2005 Budget......................................................................................................... Unemployment rate: 3 CBO January ....................................................................................................... Blue Chip Consensus January 1 .................................................................. 2005 Budget......................................................................................................... Interest rates: 3 91–day Treasury bills: CBO January................................................................................................... Blue Chip Consensus January 1 ............................................................. 2005 Budget .................................................................................................... 10–year Treasury notes: CBO January................................................................................................... Blue Chip Consensus January 1 ............................................................. 2005 Budget .................................................................................................... 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Average 2004–2009
11,629 11,660 11,612 4.8 4.6 4.4 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.4 5.8 5.8 5.6
12,243 12,291 12,187 4.2 3.7 3.6 1.1 1.6 1.3 1.7 2.1 1.5 5.3 5.5 5.4
12,814 12,929 12,796 3.1 3.3 3.4 1.5 1.8 1.5 2.0 2.3 1.8 5.0 5.4 5.2
13,389 13,588 13,449 2.7 3.1 3.3 1.8 1.9 1.7 2.2 2.4 2.1 5.1 5.3 5.1
14,023 14,292 14,151 2.8 3.2 3.2 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.4 5.2 5.3 5.1
14,686 15,045 14,890 2.8 3.2 3.1 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.5 5.2 5.2 5.1 3.4 3.5 3.5 1.5 1.8 1.6 2.0 2.2 2.0 5.3 5.4 5.3
1.3 1.3 1.3 4.6 4.7 4.6
3.0 2.6 2.4 5.4 5.4 5.0
4.0 3.7 3.3 5.5 5.5 5.4
4.6 3.9 4.0 5.5 5.6 5.6
4.6 4.1 4.3 5.5 5.6 5.8
4.6 4.1 4.4 5.5 5.6 5.8
3.7 3.3 3.3 5.3 5.4 5.4
Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Aspen Publishers, Inc., Blue Chip Economic Indicators. All forecasts reflect December 2003 comprehensive revisions to the National Income and Product Accounts. 1 January 2004 Blue Chip Consensus forecast for 2004 and 2005; Blue Chip October 2003 long run extension for 2006–2009. 2 Year-over-year percent change. 3 Annual averages, percent.
385
386
Table S–12. Budget Summary by Category
(In billions of dollars) Total 2005–2009
2003 Outlays: Discretionary: Defense (DOD) ............................................................................ Nondefense .................................................................................. Total, Discretionary ................................................................ Mandatory: Social Security ............................................................................. Medicare ........................................................................................ Medicaid and SCHIP ................................................................. Other ............................................................................................... Total, Mandatory ..................................................................... Net interest ........................................................................................ Total Outlays .......................................................................................... Receipts .................................................................................................. Deficit 1 ............................................................................................... On-budget deficit ................................................................................. Off-budget surplus...............................................................................
1
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
388 438 826 470 246 165 298 1,179 153 2,158 1,782 375 536 161
433 475 908 492 266 183 314 1,254 156 2,319 1,798 521 675 154
429 485 914 510 290 188 320 1,308 178 2,400 2,036 364 543 179
415 478 892 529 336 198 305 1,368 213 2,473 2,206 268 470 202
426 479 904 552 372 213 305 1,441 246 2,592 2,351 241 466 225
447 476 923 576 393 232 325 1,527 275 2,724 2,485 239 487 248
467 476 942 608 418 251 335 1,612 299 2,853 2,616 237 501 263
2,183 2,393 4,576 2,775 1,809 1,081 1,590 7,256 1,211 13,043 11,694 1,349 2,466 1,117
The Budget incorporates the HHS actuaries’ estimates for the Medicare Prescription Drug, Improvement, and Modernization Act of 2003. Because CBO’s 10–year cost estimates of this bill were significantly below the HHS actuaries’ estimates and because of the uncertainties involved in these estimates, Table S-13 also includes deficit calculations that reflect the lower CBO estimates.
SUMMARY TABLES
THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2005
Table S–13. Outlay Impact of Prescription Drug and Medicare Improvement Act of 2003 (P.L. 108–173)
(Dollar amounts in billions) Total 2004–2008 2004–2013
2004 Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Actuaries’ Estimate 1 ............................................................... CBO Estimate 1
..............................................................................
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
8 4
13 6
43 28
56 40
58 44
60 47
178 122
534 395
President’s Budget Deficit Estimates ...................................... As a percent of GDP ................................................................. Administration’s Deficit Adjusted for CBO Estimate 2 ...... As a percent of GDP .................................................................
Note: See the HHS chapter in this volume for further information. 1 Excludes revenue effects, debt service, and intrabudgetary transactions. 2 Includes debt service.
521 4.5% 516 4.5%
364 3.0% 357 3.0%
268 2.1% 251 2.0%
241 1.8% 224 1.7%
239 1.7% 223 1.6%
237 1.6% 220 1.5%
1,632
1,571
Explanation of Difference in Estimates: The largest portion of the difference in these cost estimates is attributable to assumptions regarding beneficiary participation, market behavior, and cost growth rates. Even small differences in these assumptions can dramatically change the overall cost estimates. For example, CBO and the Medicare actuaries both assume comparable savings from private-plan management of the drug benefit. CBO, however, assumes that these savings will be realized earlier; the Medicare actuaries assume that it will take longer for plans to achieve maximum savings.
387
388
Table S–14. Current Services Baseline Summary by Category
(In billions of dollars) Total 2005–2009
2003 Outlays: Discretionary: Defense (DOD) ............................................................................ Nondefense .................................................................................. Total, Discretionary ................................................................ Mandatory: Social Security ............................................................................. Medicare ........................................................................................ Medicaid and SCHIP ................................................................. Other ............................................................................................... Total, Mandatory ..................................................................... Net interest ........................................................................................ Total Outlays .......................................................................................... Receipts .................................................................................................. Surplus/deficit 1 ............................................................................... On-budget deficit ................................................................................. Off-budget surplus...............................................................................
1
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
388 438 826 470 246 165 298 1,179 153 2,158 1,782 375 536 161
433 475 908 492 266 182 314 1,254 156 2,319 1,791 527 682 154
420 490 910 510 290 188 320 1,309 178 2,397 2,037 360 539 179
398 487 885 529 336 198 306 1,370 213 2,468 2,215 253 455 202
402 495 896 552 372 214 303 1,441 245 2,583 2,354 229 453 224
413 501 914 577 393 233 325 1,528 273 2,715 2,497 218 465 247
423 510 933 608 418 252 339 1,618 296 2,847 2,636 211 474 263
2,056 2,481 4,537 2,776 1,809 1,086 1,593 7,265 1,206 13,008 11,738 1,270 2,385 1,115
The Budget incorporates the HHS actuaries’ estimates for the Medicare Prescription Drug, Improvement, and Modernization Act of 2003. Because CBO’s 10–year cost estimates of this bill were significantly below the HHS actuaries’ estimates and because of the uncertainties involved in these estimates, Table S-13 also includes deficit calculations that reflect the lower CBO estimates.
SUMMARY TABLES
THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2005
Table S–15. Impact of Budget Policy
(Dollar amounts in billions) Total 2005–2009 1,270
2004 Current Services Baseline Deficit ...... Proposals: Discretionary policy: Department of Defense................. Homeland security .......................... Other spending ................................ Subtotal, discretionary ....................... Revenue proposals 1
.........................
2005 360
2006 253
2007 229
2008 218
2009 211
527
— — * * 7 * 521 4.5%
9 1 6 4 * 1 364 3.0%
17 2 12 8 13 6 268 2.1%
26 4 21 9 8 5 241 1.8%
36 5 31 10 19 8 239 1.7%
49 6 43 12 29 14 237 1.6%
137 18 113 43 69 33 1,349
Mandatory proposals ......................... 2005 Budget Deficit 2 .............................. Percent of GDP ....................................
* $500 million or less. Note: Each line includes debt service. 1 Includes outlay impact of revenue proposals. 2 The Budget incorporates the HHS actuaries’ estimates for the Medicare Prescription Drug, Improvement, and Modernization Act of 2003. Because CBO’s 10–year cost estimates of this bill were significantly below the HHS actuaries’ estimates and because of the uncertainties involved in these estimates, Table S-13 also includes deficit calculations that reflect the lower CBO estimates.
389
390
Table S–16. Baseline Adjustments
(In billions of dollars) Total 2005–2009 2005–2014 1,549
2004 Budget Enforcement Act Baseline Deficits............................ Extend certain tax provisions: Permanently extend individual income tax rate cuts ..... Permanently extend estate and gift tax changes ........... Extend other provisions of the 2001 and 2003 tax acts 1 ......................................................................................... Subtotal, tax extenders ........................................................ Assume emergencies are one-time only ............................... Adjust pay factor to more accurately reflect changes in pay costs ....................................................................................... Debt service related to all changes ......................................... Current Services Baseline Deficit .............................................
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
527
393
305
292
288
271
— — — — —
— 1 11 12 43
— 2 29 30 79
— 2 29 30 86
— 2 28 30 89
— 2 44 46 92
— 9 139 148 388
395 180 414 990
— — 527
2 * 360
2 2 253
2 5 229
2 8 218
3 12 211
11 27 1,270
* $500 million or less. 1 Table S–9 provides a detailed list of expiring tax provisions assumed in the baseline.
SUMMARY TABLES
THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2005
Table S–17. Federal Government Financing and Debt
(Dollar amounts in billions) 2003 Actual Estimate 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Function Financing: Unified budget deficit ( ) ....................................................................................... Financing other than the change in debt held by the public: Net purchases ( ) of non-Federal securities by the National Railroad Retirement Investment Trust ...................................................... Changes in: 1 Treasury operating cash balance ............................................................... Compensating balances 2 ........................................................................... Checks outstanding, etc. 3 .......................................................................... Seigniorage on coins ........................................................................................... Less: Net financing disbursements: Direct loan financing accounts .................................................................... Guaranteed loan financing accounts ........................................................ Total, financing other than the change in debt held by the public Total, requirement to borrow from the public................................. Change in debt held by the public....................................................................... Change in Debt Subject to Statutory Limitation: Change in debt held by the public....................................................................... Change in debt held by Government accounts .............................................. Change in other factors .......................................................................................... Total, change in debt subject to statutory limitation .................................
375
521
364
268
241
239
237
20 26 5 8 1 6 1 2 373 373
1 * 22 — 1 12 3 14 507 507
* — — — 1 11 3 8 371 371
* — — — 1 19 3 15 282 282
* — — — 1 20 1 18 259 259
* — — — 1 20 2 17 256 256
* — — — 1 21 2 18 255 255
373 188 15 576
507 219 * 727
371 275 1 647
282 311 * 594
259 333 1 592
256 357 1 614
255 378 1 634
391
392
Table S–17. Federal Government Financing and Debt—Continued
(Dollar amounts in billions) Function Debt Subject to Statutory Limitation, End of Year: Debt issued by Treasury ......................................................................................... Adjustment for discount, premium and coverage 4 ..................................... Total, debt subject to statutory limitation 5 ............................................. Debt Outstanding, End of Year: Gross Federal debt: 6 Debt issued by Treasury .................................................................................... Debt issued by other agencies ........................................................................ Total, gross Federal debt ............................................................................... Held by: Debt held by Government accounts .............................................................. Debt held by the public 7 .................................................................................. As a percent of GDP ....................................................................................... 2003 Actual Estimate 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
6,733 5 6,738
7,459 5 7,464
8,106 5 8,111
8,700 5 8,705
9,292 5 9,297
9,906 5 9,911
10,540 5 10,545
6,733 27 6,760 2,846 3,914 36.1%
7,459 27 7,486 3,066 4,421 38.6%
8,106 26 8,133 3,341 4,792 39.8%
8,700 26 8,726 3,652 5,074 40.1%
9,292 26 9,318 3,985 5,333 40.2%
9,906 25 9,931 4,342 5,589 40.0%
10,540 24 10,564 4,720 5,844 39.8%
* $500 million or less. 1 A decrease in the Treasury operating cash balance or compensating balances (which are assets) would be a means of financing a deficit and therefore has a positive sign. An increase in checks outstanding (which is a liability) would also be a means of financing a deficit and therefore also has a positive sign. 2 Compensating balances are non-interest bearing Treasury bank deposits that Treasury mainly uses to compensate banks for collecting tax and non-tax receipts under financial agency agreements. Most of the balances at the end of 2003 were required to be invested in nonmarketable Depositary Compensation Securities issued by the Treasury; the rest of the balances, and the entire amount in previous years, was invested in the way that the banks decide. 3 Besides checks outstanding, includes accrued interest payable on Treasury debt, miscellaneous liability accounts, allocations of special drawing rights; and, as an offset, cash and monetary assets (other than the Treasury operating cash balance and compensating balances), miscellaneous asset accounts, and profit on sale of gold. 4 Consists mainly of unamortized discount (less premium) on public issues of Treasury notes and bonds (other than zero-coupon bonds) and unrealized discount on Government account series securities. 5 The statutory debt limit is $7,384 billion. 6 Treasury securities held by the public and zero-coupon bonds held by Government accounts are almost all measured at sales price plus amortized discount or less amortized premium. Agency debt securities are almost all measured at face value. Treasury securities in the Government account series are measured at face value less unrealized discount (if any). 7 At the end of 2003, the Federal Reserve Banks held $656.1 billion of Federal securities and the rest of the public held $3,257.5 billion. Debt held by the Federal Reserve Banks is not estimated for future years.
SUMMARY TABLES