Real Estate Trends In Asia: Financialisation of Real Estate
Jonathan Yap Head, South India November 2005
Agenda
• The Changing Market Dynamics • The Implications For Property Players • Ascendas’ Experience • Conclusion
Changing Market Dynamics
Investment Demand Increasing
Currently, 10% of world population is >60. By 2050, this will hit 21%. Retirement/pension money therefore increasing. US pension fund is a USD 5 trillion market. A 1% shift in allocation towards real estate a USD 50 billion demand!
Aging Population
8 7 6 5
(%)
7.5 5.7 4.5 5.9
World Asia Europe Latin North America
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
2002 2050
4 3 2 1 0 US Australia LT Govt Bond REIT/LPT Yield
Percentage of total population over age 60 Source: United Nations
Source: CEIC, JP Morgan
Changing Market Dynamics
Investment Demand Increasing
REIT IPOs continues to be hugely oversubscribed. REIT Demand in Asia has increased. Just Japan and Spore alone, REITs market cap grew by almost 3X to S$36b in last 2 years!
Source: UBS
Changing Market Dynamics
Regulators Responding • Spore
2001: Revised Guidelines (tax transparency) 2002: CPF Investment Scheme 2003: Gearing limits raised to 35% (from 25%) 2004: Tax exemption for individuals; Withholding tax reduced to 20% (from 22%) 2005: Withholding tax reduced to 10% (from 20%); Waive stamp duty; Gearing limits raised to 60%
• Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Thailand • Elsewhere – In the works
Changing Market Dynamics
Trend : “Financialisation” Of The Real Estate Market Previously Going forward
Changing Market Dynamics Globalisation Of Source of Funding
• Local ► Global play • Accessibility increasing • Interest in cross border transactions increasing
Agenda
• Evaluating Changing Market Dynamics • Implications To Property Players • Ascendas’ Experience • Conclusion
Implications For Property Players • Cost of capital is vital
– Local players who are investing will have to compete with lower cost of global capital – Ability to tap onto the global capital will become increasingly important
• Tapping on global capital is vital
– What is the value proposition for global capital? – Understanding what global capital wants is important – Real estate is local in nature
Implications For Property Players • The niche for property players
– Development expertise – Management expertise – Local market deal sourcing expertise
• Organising to tap on capital
– Tax considerations – Structural consideration – clean vehicles – Mitigating risks
Agenda
• Evaluating Changing Market Dynamics • Implications To Developers • Ascendas’ Experience • Conclusion
At A Glance
• Asia’s foremost business space provider • Principal markets in Singapore, China, India & Korea • 23 million sq ft of space managed valued at S$3.6 billion • Track record of over 1,150 customers
China Philippines Korea
India
Singapore
Australia
Total Business Space Solutions
Real Estate Fund Management
• Ascendas Real Estate Investment Trust • Ascendas India IT Parks Trust
Real Estate Products
Wide range of business space for industrial distribution, hi-tech, R&D, office & commercial activities: • Land Parcels • Ready-built facilities • Built-to-suit space • Cluster parks
Real Estate Services
Development & project management Property and estate management Fitout services e-infrastructure solutions
Ascendas in India
International Tech Park, Bangalore
International Tech Park, Chennai
International Tech Park, Kolkata
The V, Hyderabad
Cyber Pearl, Hyderabad
Ascendas Business Model
Create Assets
Unlock Asset Value
Maximise Shareholder Value
Enhance Asset Value
Ascendas’ Experience: Accessing global capital through A-REIT
Ascendas REIT (A-REIT) listed in Nov 02 - Spore’s 1st business and industrial space REIT Currently 7 listed REITs.
July 2002 • CapitaMall Trust listed on SGX-ST Nov 2002 • A-REIT listed on SGX-ST August 2003 • Fortune REIT listed on SGX-ST May 2004 • CapitaCommercial Trust listed on SGX-ST July 2005 September Dec 2004 2005 • Suntec REIT listed • Mapletree Logistics • Prime REIT on SGX-ST Trust listed on listed on SGX-ST SGX-ST
Prime REIT
10,000 8,000
S$m
REITs m kt cap increase m ore than 15 tim es in 3 years
6,000 4,000 2,000 0
Ju l -0 2 Ju l -0 4 Ju l -0 3 Ja n03 Ja n04 Ja n05 Ma r-0 5 Ju l -0 5 Ma r-0 4 Se p04 Se p02 Ma r-0 3 Se p03 No v No v No v Ma y Ma y Ma y Se p05 -04 -02 -03 -03 -04 -05
S$11b
S$0.7b
CMT
A-REIT
Fortune REIT
CCT
Suntec REIT
MLT
Prime REIT
Singapore REITs legislation introduced in 1999
Share Price (S$) 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50
11/29/2002 2/28/2003 5/30/2003 8/29/2003 11/28/2003 2/27/2004 5/31/2004 8/31/2004 11/30/2004 2/28/2005 5/31/2005 8/31/2005
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Ascendas’ Experience AREIT Share Price & Volume
Volume Share Price
Volume (million of units)
Ascendas’ Experience
AREIT & Comparable Returns
6.0 5.4
4.3 4.0 2.9 2.5 2.0 2.0
0.7 0.2 0.0
Ba nk sa vings de posit s Ba nk fixe d de posit (12 mont hs) (1) Int e rba nk ove rnight int e re st CP F (ordina ry a c c ount ) (3) 10 Ye a r gove rnme nt bond (4) ra t e (2) S TI Inde x (5) A-REIT a nnua lise d yie ld (6)
Notes: (1) Bank fixed deposit rate (12 months) as at 8 October 2005. Source: MAS website (2) Interbank overnight interest rate as at 8 October 2005. Source: MAS website (3) Based on interest paid on CPF ("Central Provident Fund") ordinary account from Jul to Sep 2005. Source: CPF website (4) As at 8 October 2005. Source: Singapore Government Securities ("SGS") website (5) Based on Bloomberg data as at 30 September 2005 (6) Yield based on A-REIT's closing price of S$2.12 per unit and annual forecast DPU of 11.37 cents as stated in A-REIT circular dated 20 September 2005
Accessing Global Capital For Other Markets • India, China, Korea • Considerations: • Single geographical exposure or bundled? • Direct investments or through funds? • Listed or unlisted vehicles?
Accessing Global Capital: Challenges
• Streamlining operations • Creating the expertise to understand and source global capital • Adding capital market expertise to a developer company
Agenda
• Evaluating Changing Market Dynamics • Implications To Developers • Ascendas’ Experience • Conclusion
Conclusion
Real estate funding will continue to be increasingly global Property players need to focus on their local expertise and at the same time tap on global capital Increasingly important for local property players to restructure their operations to court capital Property players in Asia will look very different in the future
THANK YOU
www.ascendas.com