IPv4 Consumption and transition to IPv6 LACNIC Campaign Latinamerica and the Caribbean in IPv6 1/1/11 Haiti, August 2008 Agenda Initial concepts. Why IPv6? IPv4 Runout Policies. Some initial concepts. IPv6 is the evolution of IPv4, the most successful network protocol of the history. IPv4 and IPv6 are not “compatibles on the wire”, which means an IPv4 only host can’t communicate with an IPv6 only host by itselves. IPv6 will not substitute IPv4, both protocol will co- exists for several years. Just like IPX is still existing in your networks. There won’t be an “IPv4 Blackout”. IPv6 Advantages Many more addresses: 340,282,366,920,938,463,374,607,431,768,211,456 available addresses. It makes simpler IPv4 tasks: Auto-configuration. Renumbering. Security (IPSEC). Multicast. IP Mobility. Innovation. Efficiency. ¿Why do we need a new network protocol? We need more addresses! Thousand of millons “always on” users. More divises to connect: cell phones, PDA, games consoles, etc. New applications: Home control, sensor networks. New broadband technologies: Wimax, DOCSIS 3.0, etc. Internet Number Resources Distribution IANA AFRINIC APNIC ARIN LACNIC RIPE IANA (Internet Assigned Numbers Authority) is currently a function of ICANN (Internet Coorporation for Assigned Names and Numbers) ISP ISP Usuario Final Usuario Final Usuario Final Regional Internet Registries IPv4 Run-out IPv4 has 4.3 billons available addresses. Initial allocations did not considered the success of the network. In the early 90s there was already fear about the run-out of IPv4 addresses and worked started on a successor. In 1993, CIDR arrives and then NAT. The end of IPv4 gets postponed. IPv4 Run-out. The plan 10 years Ago. IPv4 Pool Size IPv6 Deployment Size of the Internet IPv6 Transition using Dual Stack 6 - 10 years Time From Geoff Huston - RIPE 56. ¿What happened then? Thanks to CIDR and NAT the network grew without needing IPv6. The industry did not invest in IPv6. 2000 crisis? So, IPv6 did not flied. So, ¿What is the problem now? (1) 18% Left CIDR + NAT Central Pool Run-out Forecast : June 2011. Source: http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/index.html So, ¿What is the problem now? (2) 100 90 80 70 60 50 Observed at YE Poly. (Observed at YE) 40 30 20 10 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Other forecasts talk about 2010. Source: Alain Durand, Comcast. Stock de IANA 120 103 96 100 92 87 78 80 65 60 55 47 39 40 20 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 /8 UNITS The new plan… QuickTime™ and a BMP decompressor are needed to see this picture. From Geoff Huston - RIPE 56. Life After Run-out Current distribution of IPv4 addresses 1 16 28 18 AfriNIC APNIC 29 ARIN LACNIC 39 RIPE NCC 6 Registro Central Stock IANA Uso Espec. 26 Experimental 93 Unit: /8. A /8 = 1/256 of the total IPv4 addresses space. What could happen? There will be IPv4 addresses for many years. (in different ways). Difficulties for allocating big (and not so big) contiguous blocks. IPv6 could not be broadly used until IPv4 is exhausted or until there are adequate economic incentives. At some point, there could be “only IPv6” users. NAT Use Increases Secondary/Gray Market Carrier Class NAT. Internet Internet Global v4 address Global v4 address Access Access Concentrator Concentrator With NAT FTTH One Private IPv4 ADSL address from new Global v4 address “Private” space CPE CPE With NAT With NAT Private v4 address Private v4 address End Host End Host Shin Miyakawa , Ph.D. NTT Communications Corporation - IETF 72. Example of Concurrent Sessions. Webpage # of sessions No operation 5～10 Yahoo top page 10～20 AVERAGE 500 SESSIONS PER CUSTOMER! Google image search 30～60 Nico Nico Douga 50～80 OCN photo friend 170～200+ iTunes THAT! CAN YOU MANAGE 230～270 iGoogle 80～100 Rakuten 50～60 Amazon 90 HMV 100 YouTube 90 Shin Miyakawa , Ph.D. NTT Communications Corporation - IETF 72. Reflections IPv6 will not replace IPv4 neither in the short term nor in the midterm. Both protocols will coexist for many years. The policies for receiving IPv6 addresses are not an obstacle. Neither the associated costs. They aim to facilitate IPv6 adoption. IPv6 is ready for its utilization. As any other technology, it is something live that will be improved along the time. But it is ready. Many efforts should be focused in promotion and training. It is also a very good opportunity for innovation. Policy discussion There are several proposal being discussed in the RIRs’ open policy forums. To encourage adoption of IPv6 For facilitating the transfer of IPv4 addresses between organizations. For distributing one part of the remaining unallocated pool. For ensuring IPv4 addresses to new entrants. Any adopted or rejected proposal has impact in our communities, and in your businesses. Participation is very important. Information about how to participate in LACNIC policy development processes is available in the website. Scenarios Different possible scenarios based in what measures are taken and what policies are adopted. It is not possible to ensure that the access to IPv4 addresses in secondary markets (grey markets) will be equitable. There are a lot of things to do, but the most important is to work in IPv6 deployment and adoption. Thank you ! Obrigado ! Gracias !