Bhutan political crisis, Debt scenario and International Financial Institution
Presented by : Mohan Tamang Democratic Youth of Bhutan 15th Jan 2009
Bhutan at a glance
Area-46,000 sq km Districts:20 Population: 700,000 GDP-3.359 billion US$ Per Capita income: US$1400
Development activities-1965
First Five year plan 1965-70 (India, 60% of the aid) Agriculture Infrastructure, Roads, Hydro power, Educational institution Annual budget 23,072 (11,500 million as current expenditure and Nu 11,571 m as capital expenditure 2008-2009). Primary focus-service sectors, health/Education.
Economic performance
GDP growth double to 17% (GDP (PPP)-US$ 3.359 billion estimate
Tala hydropower generation-tripled generation capacity doubling 460 MW+1,020 MW=1480 MW. Commissioned in 2006.
BoP improved in FY2007 (power and non power sector exports shot up 76.6% and 63.7% respectively) Tourism-21.6% visitors =24.2% Target visitors 30,000/Nu 600. US, Europe, Japan
Punatsangchu I-1,095 MW under construction-2014. Mangdechu-670 MW and Punatsangchu II- 990 MW: 2009-2016 (4,235)
Employment
Hydropower-creating few jobs Government encouraging privatization. Royal families taking over Schools. Gedu Plywood (Kuwait Fund)
Mining exploration/Privatization
Massive exploration by Cos owned by Royal families Singye Construction, Lhaki groups, Tashi Commercials Pugli, khakara khola dolomite.500 Million Nu Kalapani-calcium carbonate. Immensely damaging Environment/ecology.
Global financial crisis-1930s depression
Ngultrum depreciated by 15-18% (one US$=Nu 49.30) Constant decline-third country imports expensive-technology/raw material. Current Account surplus 10.1% of GDP. FY2009 construction phase/imports will lower current account surplus to 2.4% of GDP. Public sector debt to stay around 70% (IMF and WB debt sustainability analysis in 2007. Debt - Nu 16.5 billion (excluding India) Debt to development partners 10 m dollars 2008 but when exchange rate was Nu41/dollar (excluding New Delhi). Debt is long term 12-30 yrs, concessional. India, JICA, Austria,DANIDA,Helvetas-10th five year plan. (GoI Nu.100 billion) Aid won’t affect-GNH
IMF consultation report 2007
19th-31st July 2007,Thimphu.Art IV,AoA.
Legitimizing Monarchy Report suggests that under the vibrant leadership of Jigme Khesar……
Tashi cho Dzong (Fort)
Pertinent threats in the pretext to eradicate unemployment
Education- market needs Liberalizing trade regime implementing financial sectors reforms Investing in lower non – labor costs.
Poverty Report
RGoB Poverty analysis report 2004. 32 % under poverty. Big gap between rich and poor. Nu 740/month) or US$17. Constraints: landlock, limited scope for diversification of production. So paradox is the Gross National Happiness
Voices
Continued movement
Demystify GNH. Eco variables inevitable indexes for development. Set Human rights records as pre requisites for extending grants. Defense Expenditure 2002-9.3 million US$ 2007-13.7 million US$. Ethnicisation of State Militia recruitment.
Obstacles
IFIs including neighboring countries-India, Nepal.
International Communities
USA, New Zealand, Canada, Denmark, Australia, Norway, Netherlands-Resettlement 8,500/1,08,000
You and I must stand to fight to End monarch and cronies like IMF and WB. JUSTICE
The End