Poland Commercial Real Estate Market
Hadley Dean Managing Partner, Poland
7th December, 2007 Going Global - Business Opportunities in Poland Conference 2007
Colliers International – facts sheet
Colliers International Poland is an independent member of COLLIERS MACAULAY NICOLLS (CMN)
334 offices in 27 countries
Colliers International Europe’s Offices
$688 million in revenue
28 m. sqm under management 6,398 professionals
$39 billion in transaction value
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Investment Advisory Group Office Tenant Representation Industrial Tenant Representation Retail Leasing Property Valuation Building Consultancy Property Management Hospitality Advisory Research & Consulting We accelerate your success by making our Knowledge your property.
Commercial Markets by Colliers International
Office Market Trends Industrial Market Trends
Office Market Overview
Warsaw Office Market 2007 Q3 Snapshot
TOTAL STOCK Q3 2007 (SQM)
2,690,704
VACANCY RATE Q3 VACANCY RATE Q3 2007 (%) 2006 (%) 3.6 6.6
SUBURBAN STOCK Q3 2007 (SQM) 1,599,372 CBD STOCK Q3 2007 (SQM) 1,091,332
SUBURBAN SUBURBAN VACANCY RATE Q3 VACANCY RATE Q3 2007 (%) 2006 (%) 3.4 CBD VACANCY RATE Q3 2007 (%) 3.8 5.5 CBD VACANCY RATE Q3 2006 (%) 8.3
Warsaw Office Market Leasing Activity*
500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 CBD Suburbs
sqm ( 000s)
2001 2002
2003 2004 2005
2006 2007f
*tenant deals signed (i.e. new tenants, renegotiations, expansions, & owner-occupier investments)
Warsaw Office Stock & Vacant Space
3000 2500 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2001 2002 Stock 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
sqm (000)
1500 1000 500 0
Vacant Space (right-hand scale)
sqm (000)
2000
Office Rents in Warsaw Q3 2007
AVERAGE HEADLINE RENT LEVELS (€) AVERAGE EFFECTIVE RENT (€) GROWTH IN EFFECTIVE RENTS Y-O-Y (%)
DISTRICT
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
26.36
24.85
65
SUBURBS
15.54
14.35
14
WARSAW (CITY AVERAGE)
20.95
19.60
44
Trends in the Warsaw Office Market
Very tight supply in CBD until at least 2010
Negligible levels of vacant space, rising rents
Flood of new projects in south and south west of city (400,000 sqm over 36 months) Vacancy rates to rise, but only slightly. High demand will support rents in the suburbs
Regional Office Market 2007
CITY TOTAL STOCK (SQM) VACANCY RATE (%)
KRAKOW
201,960
0.40
WROCLAW
158,510
2.40
TRICITY
141,400
4.50
POZNAN
113,130
4.00
LODZ
52,600
2.50
Trends in the Regional Office Market
Supply boom - (notably Wroclaw and Lodz) High demand will hold rents firm in most locations Developers count on continued flow of BPO investments (particularly Lodz and Wroclaw), vulnerable to downturn in demand
Poznan market remaining tight, rents rising
Colliers Success Stories – Office Deals
PROVIDENT POLSKA Colliers Office Department represented Provident Polska in negotiations of office lease. Total area leased: Client: Brokers: 6,600 sqm Provident Marcin Kania, Paweł Skałba
CANAL+ Advised by Colliers International CANAL+ decided to start the built-to-suite office building in the Stegny district of Warsaw. Total area leased: Client: Broker: 14,100 sqm Canal+ Cyfrowy Paweł Skałba
Colliers Success Stories – Office Deals
CAPGEMINI Colliers International assisted Capgemini, a world leader in IT consulting and outsourcing services, in its lease of over 10,000 sqm in Rondo Business Park in Kraków. Total area leased: Client: Broker: app. 10,000 sqm Capgemini Marek Ciunowicz
NESTLÉ POLSKA Colliers Office Department represented Nestlé Polska in the renegotiation of their lease in UBC I & UBC II, office buildings located in Mokotów district. Total area leased: Client: Broker: 5,300 sqm Nestlé Polska Paweł Skałba
Industrial Market
Industrial National Snapshot – H1 2007
Road Infrastructure
Region
Existing m2
Under construction m2 224 110 171 529
Planned m2
Vacancy rate
Average rent
Warszawa Silesia
1 439 951 400 958
1 060 699 477 000
5,0% 4,5%
2.70 - 5.00 € 3.15 €
Poznań
Łódź
420 048
196 901
707 000
9,9%
2.90 €
2.65 - 3.20 €
301 095
174 115
890 000
3,9%
Wrocław
203 867
104 330
375 972
4,3%
2.90 €
Kraków Gdańsk
19 000
0
150 000
0,00%
3.40 € 3.10 €
53 000
35 800
37 000
9,9%
Other
15 920
0
228 000
0,00%
-
TOTAL
2 853 839
906 785
3 925 671
7,51%
-
Modern Warehouses – National Stock & Pipeline
2 500
2 000
SQM (000s)
1 500
Planned [m2] Existing [m2]
1 000
500
0
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National Market – Leasing Activity
700 600 500
SQM (000s)
400 300 200 100 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 Warsaw 2004 Regions 2005 2006 2007f
Industrial Land Prices
€15- €30 €20-€35
SZCZECIN
TORUN
Zone I €45- €60
€15- €30
INDUSTRIAL LAND PRICES
Zone III €10- €25
Zone II €18- €30 €15- €25 €10- €15
€30- €50
€15- €25 €10- €15
Special Economic Zones for New Investments
14 areas across Poland offering enhanced economic conditions
Incentives include:
Corporation or income tax discounts
Fully prepared land with administrative clearance
for investment at competitive prices Free assistance in completing administrative formalities Exemption from real estate taxes in certain districts
Colliers Success Stories – Industrial Deals
PREGIS Pregis, represented by Colliers International in the lease transaction, became one of the first tenants for production space in Tulipan Park Gliwice. Client: Total space leased: Brokers: Pregis 16,000 sqm Renata Osiecka, Maciej Chmielewski
UNILEVER Colliers Industrial Department assisted Unilever in its lease of 42,000 sqm of industrial space in Central Poland. Client: Total space leased: Brokers: Unilever 42,000 sqm Renata Osiecka, Maciej Chmielewski
Colliers Success Stories – Industrial Deals
FIEGE Advised by Colliers International Poland Fiege Decided to lease 30,000 sqm of warehouse space in Silesia region. Client: Total space leased: Brokers: Fiege 30,000 sqm Renata Osiecka, Maciej Chmielewski
NESTLÉ Colliers International Poland represented Nestlé Polska in renegotiating their lease agreement of 20,000 sqm of warehouse space in Poznań. Client: Total space leased: Brokers: Nestlé 20,000 sqm Renata Osiecka, Maciej Chmielewski
Thank you for your attention! Hadley Dean, Managing Partner hadley.dean@colliers.pl Tel. +48 22 331 78 00 www.colliers.com
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