Energy Development in China - From a View Point of Sustainable by jeq15539

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									Energy Development in China
- From a View Point of Sustainable
Development
            Yang Hongwei, Zhou Dadi
       Energy Research Institute, P. R. China
                   yanghw@mx.cei.gov.cn



  SBSTA in-session workshop on climate mitigation
         Hotel Maritim, Bonn, Germany
                   19 June 2004
 World Energy Trend
IEA, 2003.         (Mtoe)
                                                                                                世界能源需求量
                   1971     2000     2010      2020     2030
Coal               1449     2355     2702      3154     3606                35000
                                                                            30000                                           IEA-WEO
Oil                2450     3604     4272      5020     5769                                                                2002情景
                                                                            25000




                                                                    百万吨标油
                                                                                                                            SRES A1B情景
Natural gas         895     2085     2794      3498     4203                20000                                           SRES A2情景
Nuclear power       29       674     753       728      703                 15000
                                                                                                                            SRES B1情景
Hydropower          104      228     274       320      366
                                                                            10000
                                                                                                                            SRES B2情景
                                                                             5000
Other renewables    73       233     336       477      618
                                                                                0
Total              5000     9179    11131    13198      15265




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                                                                                                     年份
IPCC scenarios (Mtoe)
                         2000         2010               2020                  2030                       2040            2050
Coal                     2228       3003-4235          3836-5504             4666-7186               4738-8227          4872-9457
Oil                      3854       4214-5280          4223-6922             4050-9201              3625-11273         3273-13903
Natural gas              2473       2928-3481          3653-4922             4471-6813               5402-9486         6619-13369
Nuclear power             230        268-371            327-726              359-1275                547-1933           911-2930
Bio-energy                1139         897             900-1470              1280-2080               1890-3070          2870-4600
Other renewables          271        300-360            370-550               530-960                760-1960           1140-3990
Total                 10193        12100-13400        14100-17000           16500-21400             18900-26400        21300-31200
   Stable increase in world energy demand and consumption
   Fossil fuel as dominant energy resource in the following
    decades
   Impacts of technology development on future energy
    utilization
   Role of environment in energy development is becoming more
    important
   Environmental issue has played an important role in the
    energy development of many countries, as one of the most
    important reasons why many countries selected oil and
    natural gas as major energy sources
   Climate change will exert important influence on long term
    energy development in many countries
Different situation for energy
development
   Oil & natural gas dominant period?
   Optimization of final consumption has completed?
   Local environmental protection: strict standard,
    higher environmental cost?
   Constraints for nuclear power development?
China is a developing country
   Per capita GDP is only about 1,000 US dollars
   Per capita commercial energy consumption is
    only 1 tce
   More than 60% people live in the rural area,
    living on the agriculture
   Need another 50 years to become a middle level
    developed country
Per capita GDP in 1999 in some countries(US$)




     (1995 constant price).
       The urbanization course in China                 The urbanization level of other
                                                              countries in 1995
100%                                             100%

 80%                                              80%

 60%                                              60%

 40%                                              40%

 20%                                              20%

  0%                                               0%
       1980    1985    1990     1995      2000          Korea   America   Japan   France Germany
   Pre capita living areas (m2)


            Canada
    England(1992)
      North Europe
    America(1995)
       Japan(1993)
urban area in China
 rural area in China

                       0   10   20   30   40   50   60
                 car stock for100
                     persons
      Ja




                  0
                 10
                 20
                 30
                 40
                 50
                 60
                 70
        pa       80
 G        n
     er
       m
           an
  Am         y
      er
         ic
             a
    Fr
      an
Si         ce
   ng
     ap
         or
 Au          e
     st
        ra
           lia
     C
        hi
                                    Per capita car ownership




           na

           EU
Per capita steel production (kg/person)


   World Average

  Canada(1994)

  France(1995)

   Japan(2000)

      US(1995)

   China(2001)
               0   200    400    600      800   1000
Social economic development, the
highest priority

   Economic development is and will be the
    dominant social target;
   To be a middle level developed country by the
    middle of this century;
   High economic growth rate is expected, needed,
    and possible for longer period
Long process for
industrialization
   Industrialization is still the main course of
    economic and social development for decades
   Manufacture industry will keep increase
   Urbanization will be speed up, with more than 1%
    population moving into cities each year
   Need more job for young people and farmers, 10
    million new positions needed annually
   Infrastructure construction is far from completed
Energy consumption and GHG emission
will increase for many years
   TPE consumption in China will be doubled or increase
    even more in the next two decades
   Per capita energy consumption will be close to the world
    average by around 2020
   Per capita GHG emission still much lower than that from
    developed countries
   Energy consumption in China remains at very low level
    compared to many other countries
   Trend of China’s energy development is within the very
    normal range, compared to the development history of
    other countries
                            Per capita emissions (t-C)




Per capita GDP (1000 US$)
                            Emission intensity (t-C/1000 US$)




Per capita GDP (1000 US$)
Continuous efforts on
sustainable development
   Efforts include activities in many fields
   Outstanding achievement in energy efficiency
   Efforts on developing energy alternatives
   Efforts on forestry protection and reforestation
   Enhance local environment protection
   Land management to promote sinks
Energy efficiency
improvement
   Promulgated Energy Conservation Law
   Developed energy conservation plans for each of the 5
    years’ development plans
   Issued associated energy conservation policy and
    regulations
   Established comprehensive energy conservation
    management and service system
   Issued technical guidance for energy conservation
   Developed and enforced series of energy conservation
    standards
   Initiated national energy conservation programs
Achievement in energy
efficiency
   Average GDP annual growth rate 9.7% from 1980 to
    2000, energy consumption increased 3.9% annually
   Kept the energy consumption elasticity coefficient around
    0.5 from 1980 to 2000,
   Energy intensity decreased more than 5% annually in the
    same period, (1.1% in average for the world)
   More than billion tons of fossil fuel saved
Action in renewables
   By the end of 2000,small and mini hydro up to
    23.799 GW, generating power 77.2 TWh
   Widely use of solar heaters all over the country
   Development of PV, especially for power supply
    in remote areas
Future development
   The elasticity of industrial energy consumption can be
    obviously less than that of other sectors, especially in the
    energy-intensive industries
   Substantial progress could be made in optimizing energy mix
    through speeding-up the development of natural gas,
    hydropower, nuclear power and full utilization of the
    international oil & gas resources
   Accelerating the optimization of energy mix will promote
    energy efficiency improvement, reduce energy demand and
    improve energy supply security
   Environmental issue will play a more and more important role
    in China’s future energy development
   The growth rate of GHG emission can be mitigated by
    strengthening the enforcement of sustainable energy strategy

								
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