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					Noether Associates Insight
Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs)
November 2009
Agenda



                             Introduction to Hybrid Vehicles

                             Hybrid Markets




www. noetherassociates.com                                     1
  Introduction to Hybrid Vehicles
  A hybrid vehicle uses an electric motor to supplement or replace a traditional internal combustion engine.




                                                   Hybrid Vehicles Types




             Hybrid Electrical Vehicles (HEV)        Electrical Vehicles (EV)            Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCV)

             Uses a combination of a battery     Uses electricity from batteries to   Combustion of H2 in fuel cell is
             powered motor and a gasoline        propel an electric motor             used to provide power to an
             engine                              Batteries are recharged from         electric motor
             The gasoline engine and             standard household electricity       Zero emissions
             regenerative braking recharge the   and regenerative breaking            Require H2 refueling
             battery                             Zero direct emissions, although      infrastructure
             Less emissions and better           indirect emissions are present       No full scale production
             mileage than conventional           from external power sources
             vehicles                            No full scale production
             Full scale production


Source: Electric Auto Association

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 What Makes a Vehicle a Hybrid?
 All hybrid vehicles contain a battery that provides electricity to a motor which is the vehicle’s primary or auxiliary
 power source. The battery is recharged from either onboard or external sources as well as energy captured from
 braking.
                                                 Recharging Plug (EV):
                                                 Recharges the electric battery
                                                 from an external power source
                                                                                                              Electric Battery (All Hybrids):
                                                                                                              Provides power to the
                                                                                                              electric motor
       Integrated Starter-
       Generator or Belt-Starter
       Generator (HEV):
       Combination
       starter/alternators provide                                                                                Regenerative Braking (All
       the necessary power boost                                                                                  Hybrids):
       to start the hybrid gasoline
       engine from the idle-off                                                                                   Energy from braking is
       position                                                                                                   captured and stored in the
                                                                                                                  battery

                                                                                                     Hydrogen Fuel Cell (FCV):
                                                                                                     Combustion of hydrogen recharges the
                                                                                                     electric battery


                                                                                  Electric Motor (All Hybrids):
                                      Hybrid Gasoline Engine                      Provides primary power to
                                      (HEV):                                      the vehicle to FCVs and EVs,
                                                                                  and auxiliary power to HEVs
                                      Provides primary power to
                                      the vehicle and recharges
                                      the battery
Source: Noether Associates Analysis

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 Hybrid Carbon Emissions Reduction
 Hybrid carbon emissions are significantly lower than conventional vehicles, due to the reduced consumption of fossil
 fuels.


  Life-cycle carbon abatement potential of various power train technologies compared to
  today’s gasoline-powered internal combustion engine
  %
                                                                                          HEVs are regarded as the “bridge
                                                                                          technology” paving the way for the
                                                                                          adoption of true zero emission vehicles
       Full Hybrid HEVs                             56%

                                                                                            While some HEVs may offer up to 43%
                                                                                            fewer emissions than conventional
                                                                                            vehicles, some Mild Hybrid designs
                                                                                            have only marginally lower emissions
                         EVs          19%   30%   49%                                       than conventional engines

                                                        Additional reduction with
                                                                                            FCVs are the only true emissions free
                                                        more “non-coal electricity”         vehicles currently in development


                       FCVs                                                      100%




Source: Noether Associates Analysis

 www. noetherassociates.com
 HEV Types: Mild and Full Hybrids
 HEVs come in two types, “Mild Hybrids” which requires the gasoline engine to be turning in order to run, and “Full
 Hybrids” able to run purely from electric power at low speeds and accelerations.


  What kind of HEV is it?


                      Features                               Mild Hybrid HEV   Full Hybrid HEV   Full Hybrids and Mild Hybrid HEVs use
                                                                                                 many of the same technologies, but the
                                                                                                 differences between them are significant
    Shuts off the engine when the vehicle is
    stationary (idle-off)
                                                                                                   Mild Hybrid technology is easier and
                                                                                                   cheaper to implement
    Uses regenerative braking and operates
    above 60 volts                                                                                 Many manufacturers entering the
                                                                                                   market begin by offering Mild Hybrids
    Uses electric motor to provide                                                                 Some Mild Hybrid HEVs, such as the
    additional power to a conventional
                                                                                                   Honda Insight, achieve better mileage
    engine
                                                                                                   than current Full Hybrid offerings*
    Can drive at low speeds using only the                                                         Next generation HEV design is focused
    electric motor                                                                                 on Full Hybrid systems




Note: Increased mileage does not necessarily equate to reduced emissions
Source: IEA (International Energy Agency); HybridCenter.org

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 HEV Idle-off Technologies: BSG and ISG
 BSG and ISG systems provide the necessary power to enable a hybrid gasoline engine to start from the idle-off
 position.


  Comparison of BSG and ISG

                                             Belt Starter-    Integrated Starter-   Both BSG and ISG systems are currently
                    Features
                                            Generator (BSG)     Generator (ISG)     being developed and marketed
    Replaces conventional belt-driven
    alternator with a belt-driven, higher                                             BSG systems are cheaper to produce
    power starter-alternator                                                          and are mainly being developed for
                                                                                      lower-end, Mild Hybrid designs
    Replaces correctional alternator and
    starter with a single machine                                                     Development of Full Hybrid HEV
                                                                                      designs is centered on ISG systems,
                                                                                      due to their increased capabilities
    Enables idle-off capability
                                                                                      Many manufacturers have developed
                                                                                      proprietary ISG technologies, such as
    Allows for battery regeneration                                                   Toyota’s Hybrid Synergy Drive, and the
    capability in some configurations                                                 GMs 2-Mode Hybrid System

    Provides a power boost to assist the
    engine when required




Source: EPA Report; mPowerUK

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Agenda



                             Introduction to Hybrid Vehicles

                             Hybrid Markets




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  The Global Hybrid Vehicle Market
  The United States represents the vast majority of the global hybrid sales, with Japan being the only other significant
  player in the world hybrid market.


  2008 Global Hybrid Sales
  Units Sold

                                                                                   The United States and Japan represent
                              Ne therlands    Othe rs
                                                                                   80% of the global hybrid market, due to a
                                  10,044       44,586
                                                                                   number of factors:
                                    2%          11%
                       UK
                                                                                      Leading technology position
                     13,248
                                                                                      Media attention promoting hybrid
                       3%
                                                                                      vehicles
                    Canada                                                            European countries have not promoted
                     16,657                                                           HEV technology but have focused their
                        4%                                                            efforts on improved conventional and
                                                                                      diesel engines as a “bridge technology”
                      Japan,                                                          until zero emission vehicles are ready
                      69,327                                      US                  for market entry, resulting in limited
                        17%                                     258,558               European HEV sales
                                                                 63%



                                             *Total = 412,420




* Note: 2008 Global Hybrid Registrations
Source: Autospies.com; Hybridcars.com

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  The US Hybrid Vehicle Market
  The US hybrid vehicle market is dominated by Toyota, with only a handful of other hybrid manufacturers having small
  market shares.


   Total Annual Reported US Sales of Hybrids, by Manufacturer* (2000-2008)
   Units Sold

                                                                                                          Toyota dominates the US hybrid
                                               Toyota        Honda         Ford       Nissan         GM
                                                                                                          market, representing 76% of the total
                                                                                                          market share
                                                                                   349,507
                                                                                                          –   Toyota was the first company to market a
                                                                                                              Full Hybrid HEV in the United States, the
                                                                                                              Toyota Prius
                                                                        257,006               258,558
                                                                                                          –   The Prius has received much media
                                                            217,005                                           attention and many celebrity
                                                                                                              endorsements
                                                                                                          –   Toyota hybrid technology is currently the
                                                                                                              most advanced on the market
                                                  97,004
                                                                                                          In 2008, sales of small, fuel efficient
                                      51,003
                           42,002                                                                         vehicles lagged as tight credit,
     19,500     27,001
                                                                                                          recession fears, and falling gas prices

     2000       2001       2002        2003       2004       2005       2006       2007           2008




* Note: Only the top 5 hybrid vehicle manufactures are included, others having negligible sales
Source: Autospies.com; Hybridcars.com

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 Toyota Enters the China Hybrid Market
 To date, attempts to bring hybrid technology to China have been largely unsuccessful, as seen by the shortcomings of
 Toyota Prius sales in China.


  Price Comparison of the Toyota Prius, 2008
  USD

                                                                                               Although the Prius is assembled in
                                                                                               China, the key hybrid components are
                                                                                               imported from Japan

                                                                                               The difference in price is largely due to
                     US                                       $21,500                          the tariffs on imported parts

                                                                                               In 2006, Toyota planned to sell 4,000
                                                                                               units in China; however, only 2,152
                                                                                               were sold, representing approximately
                                                                                               50% of the budgeted number
                 China                                                               $40,000   In 2009, Toyota recently announced to
                                                                                               cancel plans to bring the next
                                                                                               generation Prius to China




Source: Autobloggreen; Global & China Hybrid Electric Vehicle Industry Report 2008

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 Demand for Hybrid Vehicles in China
 Chinese consumers are relatively open to purchasing a hybrid vehicle if the cost is inline with that of a conventional
 engine car.


  Chinese Consumer Views on Hybrid Vehicles

                                                 I would be ready to buy a hybrid car at the same price
                                                 of a traditional car                                                  79%


                                                 Consumers are not sufficiently informed about hybrid
                                                 cars                                                            58%


                                                 Hybrid cars will trigger higher maintenance costs than
                                                 regular engine cars                                             56%
              24% do not           76% know
              know about          about hybrid   I would be ready to buy a hybrid car if it were 10%
                hybrids              cars        more expensive than a traditional car                          53%


                                                 Hybrid technology is not yet sufficiently developed
                                                                                                                51%


                                                 Hybrid cars are bought only by people who want to
                                                                                                          18%
                                                 “show off” their environmental awareness




Source: TNS 2008 Consumer Study

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