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Perceptions of Immigration in Arizona

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					        Perceptions of Immigration in Arizona
Results of a Survey of 600 Registered, Likely 2010 General Election Voters
                          Methodology
A survey of 600 registered, likely 2010 general election voters in Arizona was
conducted by telephone using professional interviewers. Interviews were conducted
among 500 voters as a whole, and an additional 100 interviews were conducted
among registered Hispanic voters. The data was then weighted to reflect the
electorate as a whole.

A voter file sample was used and respondents were screened to be registered voters
likely to participate in the November 2010 general election.

Due to the increasing prevalence of cell phone only households, 20% of interviews
were conducted among voters with cell phones.

Interviews were conducted May 13-19, 2010.

The margin of error for the sample as a whole is plus or minus 4.0 percentage
points at the 95% level of confidence. The margin of error for subgroups varies and
is higher.


                                                                                      2
A Majority of Arizonans Are Angry or at Least Mildly
 Frustrated With the Current Immigration Situation
 “Does the current immigration situation make you angry, mildly frustrated, or is it just one of
                         many issues you have an opinion about?”

                                  2%


                                                       36%
           37%                                                                Angry

                                                                              Mildly frustrated

                                                                              Just one of many issues you
                                                                              have an opinion about
                                      25%                                     Not sure




              Note: Data from Rasmussen Reports Poll, conducted April 27, 2010
                                N=500 likely Arizona voters
                                                                                                      3
Those Who Are Angry, Focus Their Anger Overwhelmingly on the
       Federal Government’s Handling of Immigration
“Are you more angry at immigrants looking for a job or angry at the federal government for the
   way it deals with immigration?” *(Question asked to those who answered “angry” in the previous question)




  Federal government for the
  way it deals with immigration                                                   85%

  Immigrants looking for a job
                                                       10%



                                        0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

         Angry at federal government                Angry at immigrants looking for a job

                  Note: Data from Rasmussen Reports Poll, conducted April 27, 2010
                                    N=500 likely Arizona voters
                                                                                                              4
Most Arizonans Believe It Is Critically Important that Congress
Address Comprehensive Immigration Reform Before the 2010
                   Congressional Election
  “With all the different issues the Congress and President must address, how important do you
   think it is that they should pass a bill on immigration reform before the 2010 Congressional
                                       election in November?”

 Net Not Important                                                            Net Important
       16%                                                                         77%
                                             7%
                                   9%
                          7%

                                                                         56%
                        21%




  Very important    Somewhat important       Not too important     Not important at all   Don't know



                                                                                                       5
      White and Hispanic Arizonans, Democrats, Republicans and
Independents All Believe That Congress Should Move Quickly to Address
                 Comprehensive Immigration Reform
“With all of the different issues the Congress and President must address, how important do you think it is that they should pass a
 bill on immigration reform before the 2010 Congressional election in November-is it very important, somewhat important, not too
                                                 important or not important at all?”

                                                                                                          Net Latinos saying
                                                                                                         immigration reform
                          Hispanic voters                                                84%               should be a high
                                                                                                       priority in April polling:
                             White voters                                             77%                        65%*




                               Democrats                                                  84%

                              Republicans                                              77%

                           Independents                                             69%

                                             0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
                                                        Net Important


                                             *Data from Benenson Strategy Group poll conducted March
                                             29-April 19, 2010 among n=400 Latino voters in Arizona
                                                                                                                                    6
     A Plurality of Arizonans Believe Both Parties Are
  Ignoring or Avoiding the Issue of Immigration Reform

                                                   From what you have heard, do you think
                                                 Democrats/Republicans in the US Congress are:   White   Hispanics



                                                                                    45%          49%      31%
        Ignoring or avoiding the issue of
               immigration reform                                            36%                 38%      24%

                                                                  24%                            21%      41%
 Working on passing immigration reform                              28%                          29%      21%

                                                        13%                                      14%      13%
Opposing or blocking immigration reform                    19%                                   16%      39%

                                                            17%                                  16%      15%
                     Don't know/refused                      18%                                 18%      17%


                                            0%          20%              40%               60%
                                                 Democrats                 Republicans
                                                                                                                7
Arizonans “Strongly” Support Comprehensive Immigration
                        Reform
       “Do you favor or oppose requiring illegal immigrants currently living in the United States
       to pay a fine and back taxes, learn English and pass a criminal background check to get
                 on a path to legalization?” COMPREHENSIVE IMMIGRATION REFORM
      100%
                                          +57
       80%                   73%

       60%


       40%
                                                     16%
       20%                                                                     11%

       0%
             Favor, strongly       59%    Oppose, strongly       11%        DK/Refused
             Favor, not strongly   13%    Oppose, not strongly    5%




                                                                                                    8
    There Is Little Nuance Based on Demographic Subgroup—
Arizonans of All Stripes Provide Broad Support for Comprehensive
                        Immigration Reform
“Do you favor or oppose requiring illegal immigrants currently living in the United States to pay a fine and back taxes, learn English
                             and pass a criminal background check to get on a path to legalization?”



                                                                                           74%
                    White voters                   15%
                                                                                          73%
                 Hispanic voters                        23%



                                                                                            76%
                     Republicans                    15%

                                                                                         72%
                  Independents                        18%

                                                                                       69%
                      Democrats                      16%

                                    0%           20%          40%           60%          80%          100%
                                                       Favor        Oppose                                                           9
     These Numbers Mirror Polling From 2007 Across the Intermountain West
     Where Voters Were More Likely to Prefer a Comprehensive Approach to
             Immigration Reform Than Increased Border Security
  “I want you to tell me whether you agree more with the first statement or more with the second
                            statement, even if neither is exactly right. ”
     DATA FROM FIVE SURVEYS OF 500 VOTERS IN ARIZONA, COLORADO, NEW MEXICO, MONTANA AND NEVADA IN 2007




Comprehensive immigration reform
that includes border security,
employer sanctions and a guest
worker program will do more to curb
illegal immigration into the country                             50%          Prefer comprehensive
STATEMENT B
                                                                              immigration reform
More border security and a fence                                              Prefer more border
between Mexico and the U.S. will do
                                                          34%                 security
more to curb illegal immigration into
our country
STATEMENT A




                                    0%   20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
                                                                                                         10
Among the Electorate as a Whole, Six in 10 Support
                     SB1070
 As you may have heard, the Arizona state legislature recently passed and Governor Brewer signed a
 law that will require state and local police to determine the immigration status of a person if there is
      a reasonable suspicion he or she is an illegal immigrant. Do you favor or oppose this law?
     100%
                                          +30
       80%
                             60%
       60%


       40%                                            30%

       20%                                                                      9%

        0%
             Favor, strongly       54%     Oppose, strongly       27%
                                                                            DK/Refused
             Favor, not strongly    6%     Oppose, not strongly    3%




                                                                                                       11
Yet, By a Margin of 13 Points They Are More Likely to Prefer
 National Comprehensive Reform to Their Own State’s Law
            COMPARISON OF SUPPORT FOR COMPREHENSIVE SOLUTION AND SB1070



                              +13                          - 15
    100%
                     73%
     80%                        60%

     60%
                                                                  31%
     40%
                                                       16%
     20%


     0%
                      Favor                             Oppose

                       Comprehensive Reform             SB1070

                                                                          12
Both White and Hispanic Voters Are More Favorably Disposed
 Towards a Comprehensive Solution to Illegal Immigration
               COMPARISON OF SUPPORT FOR COMPREHENSIVE SOLUTION AND SB1070




                                                             74%
                                                                       +5
       White voters
                                                            69%




                                                             73%
                                                                     +55
     Hispanic voters
                                   18%



                       0%   20%      40%       60%       80%      100%
                  Favor comprehensive immigration reform                 Favor SB1070

                                                                                        13

				
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