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Survey of Arizona Latino Voters Post SB 1070

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Survey of Arizona Latino Voters Post SB 1070 Powered By Docstoc
					Political Implications of
  Immigration in 2010:
Latino Voters in Arizona
    Commissioned by



        May 11, 2010
                            p1
                                         Arizona Latino Attitudes
                                Contact

                Matt A. Barreto, Ph.D.
                matt.barreto@latinodecisions.com
                909-489-2955

                Gary M. Segura, Ph.D.
                gary.segura@latinodecisions.com
                206-280-5069

                                                                p2
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010
                                         Arizona Latino Attitudes
                                Survey Overview
    • Statewide survey of Latino registered voters in state
      of Arizona
    • Primary aim was to understand Latino views
      towards Arizona immigration law, 1070
    • Also included questions national immigration reform
      and political parties
    • n=402, margin of error +/- 4.9
    • Field dates, April 30 – May 5, 2010
    • Partnered with Latino politics faculty at Arizona
      State University, and Northern Arizona University
                                                                p3
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010
          Arizona Latino Attitudes
       Survey Overview

We examine 4 topic areas:

 1. Reaction to Arizona law
 2. National immigration policy
 3. Partisan implications
 4. Impact on 2010 turnout

                                  p4
           Arizona Latino Attitudes




1. Reaction to the Arizona Law




                                  p5
                                         Arizona Latino Attitudes
                                Latino views on 1070
                   Do you support or oppose Arizona immigration law 1070?


       80
                    70
       70
       60
       50
       40
       30
       20                                                                   12
                                         11
       10                                                   4
        0
                 Strongly        Somew hat oppose    Somew hat support   Strongly
                 oppose                                                  support

                                                                                               p6
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010    n=402 +/- 4.9                      Contact: 909.489.2955
                                         Arizona Latino Attitudes
                                Latinos in comparison
                   Do you support or oppose Arizona immigration law 1070?
           100
                                               Oppose      Support
                           81
            80
                                                                         70


            60


            40

                                                              23
            20                            16



              0
                                Latinos                       Rasmussen - AZ

                                                                                                 p7
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010     n=402 +/- 4.9                       Contact: 909.489.2955
                                         Arizona Latino Attitudes
                             Views by generation status
                      Do you support or oppose Arizona immigration law 1070?
             100
                        90
                                                               Oppose        Support
                                          82
                                                          79
              80
                                                                        67

              60


              40
                                                                               29

                                                               17
              20                                 12
                               8

                0
                        1st Gen            2nd Gen        3rd Gen       4th Gen
                                                                                          p8
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010    n=402 +/- 4.9                 Contact: 909.489.2955
                                         Arizona Latino Attitudes
                        Views by party identification

                        Do you support or oppose Arizona immigration law 1070?
                100
                            86                                         Oppose            Support
                                                                                78
                 80

                                                       61
                 60


                 40                                               33


                 20                                                                          16
                                       10


                  0
                                 Dem                        Rep                      Indep
                                                                                                        p9
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010      n=402 +/- 4.9                             Contact: 909.489.2955
                                         Arizona Latino Attitudes
                        Support for Arizona Boycott
                      People should boycott Arizona-based com panies or stop
                         doing business w ith the state to send a m essage

               100


                80


                60                 55

                                                                  41
                40


                20


                 0
                                  Agree                        Disagree

                                                                                                p10
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010    n=402 +/- 4.9                        Contact: 909.489.2955
                                         Arizona Latino Attitudes
                           Fears about racial profiling
                          How likely that Latinos w ho are legal im m igrants OR U.S.
                            citizens w ill get stopped or questioned by police?

                  100
                                         85
                   80


                   60


                   40


                   20                                                     14


                    0
                                      Likely                           Not likely

                                                                                                         p11
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010         n=402 +/- 4.9                            Contact: 909.489.2955
                                         Arizona Latino Attitudes
                        Profiling views by generation
                      Latinos who are legal immigrants OR U.S. citizens will get
                                  stopped or questioned by police?
                                               Likely     Not likely
               100
                                          89
                        85                                   81             80
                80


                60


                40


                                                                       17          19
                20             14
                                                 8

                 0
                         1st Gen          2nd Gen            3rd Gen        4th Gen
                                                                                                  p12
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010    n=402 +/- 4.9                          Contact: 909.489.2955
                                         Arizona Latino Attitudes
                           Fears about racial profiling
                          When deciding w ho to stop and question, the police w ill
                            prim arily choose people because they are Latino


                  100


                   80                    72


                   60

                   40
                                                                        27

                   20


                     0
                                     Agree                            Disagree


                                                                                                       p13
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010        n=402 +/- 4.9                           Contact: 909.489.2955
                                         Arizona Latino Attitudes
                           Fears about racial profiling
                          If most of the immigrants in Arizona where White
                          Europeans, this law would not have been passed
                100


                 80                 76


                 60


                 40

                                                                   21
                 20


                  0
                                   Agree                        Disagree

                                                                                              p14
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010     n=402 +/- 4.9                     Contact: 909.489.2955
                                         Arizona Latino Attitudes
                          Hurting relations with police
                        In the future, I would be less likely to report a crime or
                                   volunteer information to the police
                100


                 80


                 60
                                    47                                  50

                 40


                 20


                  0
                                   Agree                             Disagree

                                                                                                      p15
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010     n=402 +/- 4.9                             Contact: 909.489.2955
                                         Arizona Latino Attitudes
                                Driving Latinos away?
                           If you are repeatedly required to prove your U.S.
                         citizenship to law enforcement, would you consider
                                        moving to another state
                100


                 80
                                                                    66
                 60


                 40                 34


                 20


                  0
                                   Yes                              No
                                                                                                p16
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010    n=402 +/- 4.9                        Contact: 909.489.2955
                            Arizona Latino Attitudes
                  Summary of Reaction
                  to SB1070

• Latino opposition to the new law is overwhelming:
  – 98% were knowledgeable of the law, SB 1070
  – Transcends generation and transcends party
• Latino voters see the law as personally threatening:
  – US citizens and legal immigrants will be targeted;
  – Racial profiling will be the mechanism of enforcement;
  – If immigrants were white, there would be no law.
• Majority support for the boycott, though modest.

                                                             p17
           Arizona Latino Attitudes




2. National Immigration Policy




                                  p18
                                         Arizona Latino Attitudes
                                Most Important Issue
        What do you think are the most important issues that
        President Obama and the Congress should address over
        the next year?

        Immigration                           59%
        Fix the economy                       22%
        Health Care                           17%         Respondents could
                                                          select 2 issues
        Create more jobs                      13%
        Education                             5%
        War on terror                         4%
        Banking reform                        2%
                                                                                    p19
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010    n=402 +/- 4.9            Contact: 909.489.2955
                                         Arizona Latino Attitudes
                            Support for Policy Reform
                    What should national policy be towards illegal immigrants?
          70
                                                              60
          60

          50

          40

          30

          20                              17                                17

          10
                       3
           0
                 Deport illegal      Guest worker         Pathway to     Immediate
                  immigrants           program            citizenship   legalization


                                                                                               p20
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010    n=402 +/- 4.9                       Contact: 909.489.2955
                                         Arizona Latino Attitudes
                           Support for Policy Reform
                     What should national policy be towards illegal immigrants?
            100
             90                                           85
                                                               78
             80                                                              72
                                                                      70
             70
                                                                                           1st Gen
             60
                                                                                           2nd Gen
             50                                                                            3rd Gen
             40                                                                            4th Gen
             30
             20
             10
              0
                     Deport illegal       Guest worker     Opportunity for
                      immigrants            program         Citizenship*
                                                                    * Combines path to citizenship and
                                                                      immediate legalization categories
                                                                                                          p21
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010    n=402 +/- 4.9                              Contact: 909.489.2955
                                         Arizona Latino Attitudes
                           Support for Policy Reform
                    How important that Congress passes immigration reform
                            before the November 2010 election?
          90
                          78
          80
          70
          60
          50
          40
          30
          20                                        13
          10                                                           6

           0
                     Very important        Somewhat important   Not too important


                                                                                             p22
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010    n=402 +/- 4.9                     Contact: 909.489.2955
                                         Arizona Latino Attitudes
                            Support for Policy Reform
                    How important that Congress passes immigration reform
                            before the November 2010 election?
         100

          90                             % who said “very important”
                     78
          80                                                             74

          70                                                                        67
                                                       61
          60
                                    53
          50

          40

          30
                  Arizona        National           National           National   National
                 May 2010        Mar 2010           Nov 2009           Apr 2009   Nov 2008

                                                                                                     p23
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010       n=402 +/- 4.9                          Contact: 909.489.2955
                             Arizona Latino Attitudes
                Summary on National Policy

• The Arizona law has radically increased the salience
  of immigration as an issue;
  – Immigration is now the #1 issue to Latino voters
• Latino voters overwhelmingly prefer a policy option
  that includes a path to legalization;
• There is growing impatience with the administration:
  – Almost four in five voters think there needs to be a bill passed by the
    November election.
  – Support for a national bill is highest we have ever recorded

                                                                              p24
           Arizona Latino Attitudes




3. Partisan Implications and
   Consequences



                                  p25
                                         Arizona Latino Attitudes
                                   Political Implications
                        Which political party do you think is responsible for the
                                   new immigration law in Arizona?
                70
                                                     59
                60

                50

                40
                                                                            33
                30

                20

                10
                               2
                 0
                          Democrats             Republicans                Both
                                                                                                     p26
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010    n=402 +/- 4.9                             Contact: 909.489.2955
                                         Arizona Latino Attitudes
                                Political Implications
                             Party identification: Arizona Latinos May 2010
               80

               70

               60                                                      55

               50

               40
                                               32
               30

               20
                        12
               10

                0
                         Republican            Indep / Other            Democrat
                                                                                                    p27
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010    n=402 +/- 4.9                            Contact: 909.489.2955
                                         Arizona Latino Attitudes
                                Political Implications
                             Party identification: Arizona Latinos May 2010
                                Which party do you do you feel closer to?
               80
                                                                               71
                                           With leaners
               70
                                           recoded as
                                           partisans
               60                                                      55

               50

               40
                                               32
               30
                                  20
               20
                        12
                                                          9
               10

                0
                         Republican            Indep / Other            Democrat
                                                                                                    p28
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010    n=402 +/- 4.9                            Contact: 909.489.2955
                                         Arizona Latino Attitudes
                                   Political Implications
                      Which party do you plan to vote for in upcoming elections
                         for U.S. Congress and Senate in November 2010?

               80

               70                                                        64

               60

               50

               40

               30
                              17                    19
               20

               10

                0
                         Republican             Undecided            Democrat
                                                                                                   p29
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010    n=402 +/- 4.9                           Contact: 909.489.2955
                                         Arizona Latino Attitudes
                                   Political Implications
                       Who do you plan to vote for in the upcoming election for
                              Governor of Arizona in November 2010?

               80
                                                                          69
               70

               60

               50

               40

               30
                                                    19
               20
                              12
               10

                0
                           Brewer               Undecided              Goddard
                                                                                                   p30
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010    n=402 +/- 4.9                           Contact: 909.489.2955
                                         Arizona Latino Attitudes
                                Political Implications
                  Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is
                                    doing as President?
        100

         90                              % who approve
                                                                           81
         80                                                     74
                     73                     73
         70

         60

         50

         40

         30
                   Arizona                National            National   National
                  May 2010               Mar 2010            Nov 2009    Apr 2009
                                                                                              p31
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010       n=402 +/- 4.9                   Contact: 909.489.2955
                                         Arizona Latino Attitudes
                                Political Implications
                 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is
                                   doing as President?
       70

       60                                % who strongly approve              57


       50
                                                                  40
       40                                 35
                   31
       30

       20

       10

        0
                 Arizona             National                   National   National
                May 2010             Mar 2010                  Nov 2009    Apr 2009
                                                                                                   p32
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010         n=402 +/- 4.9                      Contact: 909.489.2955
                                         Arizona Latino Attitudes
                                Partisan Fallout
                         Do you know Obama/McCain position on AZ immigration law?

                   70

                   60                        56                  56

                   50

                   40


                   30

                   20

                   10            6                                             5

                    0
                             Favors it    Opposes it          Favors it   Opposes it
                                     Obama                            McCain
                                                                                                     p33
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010     n=402 +/- 4.9                            Contact: 909.489.2955
                                                Arizona Latino Attitudes
                                          Partisan Fallout
                                          Combined awareness of Obama/McCain on immigration law



           Know where both stand                                                    37




         Only know McCain favors                               19




       Only know Obama opposes                                 19




         Don't know either position                                   25



                                      0            10          20          30            40             50

                                                                                                               p34
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010             n=402 +/- 4.9                              Contact: 909.489.2955
                                         Arizona Latino Attitudes
                                   Partisan implications
                   Do you think the Democrats in Congress are mostly ignoring
                    immigration, working to pass reform, or blocking reform?
           60


           50
                           42
           40                                       36


           30

           20
                                                                       11
           10

            0
                        Ignoring                 Working             Blocking

                                                                                             p35
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010    n=402 +/- 4.9                     Contact: 909.489.2955
                                         Arizona Latino Attitudes
                                   Partisan implications
                  Do you think the Republicans in Congress are mostly ignoring
                    immigration, working to pass reform, or blocking reform?
           60


           50


           40              35                                           36


           30
                                                    21
           20


           10

            0
                        Ignoring                 Working             Blocking

                                                                                              p36
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010    n=402 +/- 4.9                      Contact: 909.489.2955
                                         Arizona Latino Attitudes
                                   Partisan implications
                   Do you think the Democrats in Congress are mostly ignoring
                    immigration, working to pass reform, or blocking reform?
           60

           50                                             46                    May
                       42                                                       April
                               38
           40                                   36


           30

           20
                                                                    11      10
           10


            0
                        Ignoring                 Working             Blocking

                                                                                             p37
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010    n=402 +/- 4.9                     Contact: 909.489.2955
                                         Arizona Latino Attitudes
                                   Partisan implications
                   Do you think the Democrats in Congress are mostly ignoring
                    immigration, working to pass reform, or blocking reform?
           60
                                               -10 working
           50           +4 ignoring                                             May
                                                          46
                       42                                                       April
                               38
           40                                   36
                                                                14 point
                                                                swing in 3
           30                                                   weeks time

           20
                                                                    11       10
           10


            0
                        Ignoring                 Working             Blocking

                                                                                              p38
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010    n=402 +/- 4.9                      Contact: 909.489.2955
                                         Arizona Latino Attitudes
                                Partisan implications
                   Do you think the Republicans in Congress are mostly ignoring
                     immigration, working to pass reform, or blocking reform?
            60

                                                                                     May
            50
                                                                                     Apr
                         +4 ignoring                              +3 blocking
            40         35                                             36
                                               -7 working                       33
                                31
            30                                            28

                                                 21
            20


            10


             0
                         Ignoring                  Working             Blocking

                                                                                                 p39
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010    n=402 +/- 4.9                         Contact: 909.489.2955
                                         Arizona Latino Attitudes
                                Partisan implications
                           Approve or Disapprove of Obama handling of immigration?

                    60
                                                         10 point
                    55
                                                         swing in 3
                                                         weeks time

                    50
                                - 8 approval                                    +2 approval
                                                48
                                                                         47
                                                                                          45
                    45

                                 40
                    40


                    35


                    30
                              Approve       Disapprove                Approve           Disapprove
                                      May                                       April
                                                                                                                 p40
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010        n=402 +/- 4.9                                     Contact: 909.489.2955
                                          Arizona Latino Attitudes
                                 Partisan implications
                       If immigration reform is not passed before Nov 2010, would you
                            say that is understandable, or going back on a promise?
                  60
                                              54
                                  -14
                  50   understandable

                                                                   41          +12
                               40
                                                                               understandable
                  40

                                                                                   29
                  30


                  20


                  10


                   0
                         Understandable   Going back          Understandable    Going back
                              May 2010 - AZ                     Nov 2009 - National
                                                                                                              p41
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010       n=402 +/- 4.9                                   Contact: 909.489.2955
                                         Arizona Latino Attitudes
                                   Partisan implications
                      Over the past year, do you consider yourself to be more excited
                                or less excited about the Republican Party
                 90
                                             80
                 80

                 70                                              - 42 excited
                                                                                  62
                 60
                         -69 excited
                 50

                 40

                 30
                                                                   18
                 20
                              11
                 10

                  0
                          More excited   Less excited          More excited   Less excited
                             May 2010 - AZ                      Mar 2010 - National
                                                                                                              p42
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010        n=402 +/- 4.9                                  Contact: 909.489.2955
                                          Arizona Latino Attitudes
                                 Partisan implications
                       Over the past year, do you consider yourself to be more excited
                                 or less excited about the Democratic Party
                  60

                           -14 excited        49
                  50
                                                                      - 2 excited
                                                                                    40
                  40                                                38
                               35


                  30


                  20


                  10


                   0
                           More excited   Less excited          More excited   Less excited
                              May 2010 - AZ                      Mar 2010 - National
                                                                                                          p43
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010        n=402 +/- 4.9                              Contact: 909.489.2955
                                          Arizona Latino Attitudes
                                 Partisan implications
                       Over the past year, do you consider yourself to be more excited
                                 or less excited about the Democratic Party
                  60

                           Among Democrats only                     52
                  50
                               42             42
                  40


                  30
                                                                                   24

                  20


                  10


                   0
                           More excited   Less excited          More excited   Less excited
                              May 2010 - AZ                      Mar 2010 - National
                                                                                                          p44
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010        n=402 +/- 4.9                              Contact: 909.489.2955
                              Arizona Latino Attitudes
                 Summary of Partisan Effects
• A majority of Latino voters blame Republicans for the
  passage of the new law:
  – But a third of Latino voters blame both parties;
• A growing number of respondents believe Democrats
  are ignoring the issue;
• Both parties are paying costs for the issue:
  – GOP costs more severe, but enthusiasm for Democrats is severely
    constrained by perceived inaction.
  – There is not a knee-jerk swell of support for Democrats, Latinos are
    proceeding very cautiously with respect to Democratic support


                                                                           p45
                              Arizona Latino Attitudes
                 Summary of Partisan Effects
• Generic two-party vote is Democratic, but soft:
  – The undecided signals a weak vote share in November;
• Support for Governor Brewer among Latino voters is a
  scant 12%;
• Obama approval overall appears stable (73%)
  – However - the strength of support is weakening;
  – And, a significant decline in approval for his handling of immigration
• Majority now believe that inaction on immigration
  before Nov is going back on a campaign promise
• Only 42% of self-identified Democrats are “excited”
  about what the Democratic party is doing today                             p46
           Arizona Latino Attitudes




4. Impact on Voting in 2010




                                  p47
                                          Arizona Latino Attitudes
                                  Impact on voting in 2010
                         How effect your decision to vote in November:
                       Congress passes comprehensive immigration reform
           70
                            63
           60

           50

           40

           30                                                           27


           20
                                                     9
           10

            0
                    More likely to vote      Less likely to vote   Have no effect

                                                                                               p48
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010     n=402 +/- 4.9                      Contact: 909.489.2955
                                          Arizona Latino Attitudes
                                  Impact on voting in 2010
                         How effect your decision to vote in November:
                    Congress NOT passing comprehensive immigration reform
           70

           60

           50
                            42                                          41
           40

           30

           20
                                                     12
           10

            0
                    More likely to vote      Less likely to vote   Have no effect

                                                                                               p49
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010     n=402 +/- 4.9                      Contact: 909.489.2955
                                         Arizona Latino Attitudes
                                   Impact on Voting in 2010
                               Among those who follow political news very closely


                         How enthusiastic are you about voting in November 2010

                                         Very much         Not at all
                80
                              73
                70

                60
                                                                    47
                50

                40                                                            34

                30

                20
                                         12
                10

                 0
                              Understandable                    Going back on promise
                            Obam a not passing im m igration reform before Nov-2010
                                                                                                         p50
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010     n=402 +/- 4.9                                Contact: 909.489.2955
                                         Arizona Latino Attitudes
                                 Impact on Voting in 2010
                               Among those who follow political news very closely

                         How enthusiastic are you about voting in November 2010

                                          Very much          Not at all
                80
                                                                      72
                70

                60
                               53
                50

                40

                30                         25

                20                                                              13
                10

                 0
                             Ignoring immigration                   Working on reform
                       Dem s in Congress are ignoring or w orking on im m igration reform
                                                                                                         p51
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010       n=402 +/- 4.9                              Contact: 909.489.2955
                                         Arizona Latino Attitudes
                                   Impact on Voting in 2010
                               Among those who follow political news very closely


                         How enthusiastic are you about voting in November 2010

                                         Very much          Not at all
                80

                70            64
                60

                50                                                   47
                                                                                 42
                40

                30

                20                        16

                10

                 0
                            Republicans to blame                  Both parties to blame
                           Which party is responsible for AZ im m ig law being passed
                                                                                                           p52
© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010      n=402 +/- 4.9                                 Contact: 909.489.2955
                       Arizona Latino Attitudes
              Summary of Effects on 2010
• Immigration can significantly affect the 2010 Elections;
• Perceptions of Democratic inaction, or the view that
  the President has broken his promise on this issue,
  substantially reduce enthusiasm for voting in Nov
• Affirmative movement on the issue is key to mobilizing
  the Latino electorate.
• Throughout, Latinos who do not see Dems protecting
  their interests, are very unlikely to vote in Nov


                                                        p53
                            Arizona Latino Attitudes
                  CONCLUDING THOUGHTS

• The Arizona statute has moved immigration front and
  center in the minds of Latino registered voters;
  – The issue carries high salience across all conceivable
    demographics of Latino voters
• The Latino electorate’s response is more sophisticated
  than some might have expected:
  – They are suspicious of Democratic and administration commitment on
    the issue;
  – In the absence of action, GOP misbehavior will not be sufficient to
    mobilize a Latino voting block, which is currently very energized

                                                                          p54

				
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