Political Implications of
Immigration in 2010:
Latino Voters in Arizona
Commissioned by
May 11, 2010
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Arizona Latino Attitudes
Contact
Matt A. Barreto, Ph.D.
matt.barreto@latinodecisions.com
909-489-2955
Gary M. Segura, Ph.D.
gary.segura@latinodecisions.com
206-280-5069
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Survey Overview
• Statewide survey of Latino registered voters in state
of Arizona
• Primary aim was to understand Latino views
towards Arizona immigration law, 1070
• Also included questions national immigration reform
and political parties
• n=402, margin of error +/- 4.9
• Field dates, April 30 – May 5, 2010
• Partnered with Latino politics faculty at Arizona
State University, and Northern Arizona University
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Survey Overview
We examine 4 topic areas:
1. Reaction to Arizona law
2. National immigration policy
3. Partisan implications
4. Impact on 2010 turnout
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Arizona Latino Attitudes
1. Reaction to the Arizona Law
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Arizona Latino Attitudes
Latino views on 1070
Do you support or oppose Arizona immigration law 1070?
80
70
70
60
50
40
30
20 12
11
10 4
0
Strongly Somew hat oppose Somew hat support Strongly
oppose support
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Latinos in comparison
Do you support or oppose Arizona immigration law 1070?
100
Oppose Support
81
80
70
60
40
23
20 16
0
Latinos Rasmussen - AZ
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Views by generation status
Do you support or oppose Arizona immigration law 1070?
100
90
Oppose Support
82
79
80
67
60
40
29
17
20 12
8
0
1st Gen 2nd Gen 3rd Gen 4th Gen
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Views by party identification
Do you support or oppose Arizona immigration law 1070?
100
86 Oppose Support
78
80
61
60
40 33
20 16
10
0
Dem Rep Indep
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Support for Arizona Boycott
People should boycott Arizona-based com panies or stop
doing business w ith the state to send a m essage
100
80
60 55
41
40
20
0
Agree Disagree
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Fears about racial profiling
How likely that Latinos w ho are legal im m igrants OR U.S.
citizens w ill get stopped or questioned by police?
100
85
80
60
40
20 14
0
Likely Not likely
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Profiling views by generation
Latinos who are legal immigrants OR U.S. citizens will get
stopped or questioned by police?
Likely Not likely
100
89
85 81 80
80
60
40
17 19
20 14
8
0
1st Gen 2nd Gen 3rd Gen 4th Gen
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Fears about racial profiling
When deciding w ho to stop and question, the police w ill
prim arily choose people because they are Latino
100
80 72
60
40
27
20
0
Agree Disagree
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Fears about racial profiling
If most of the immigrants in Arizona where White
Europeans, this law would not have been passed
100
80 76
60
40
21
20
0
Agree Disagree
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Hurting relations with police
In the future, I would be less likely to report a crime or
volunteer information to the police
100
80
60
47 50
40
20
0
Agree Disagree
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Driving Latinos away?
If you are repeatedly required to prove your U.S.
citizenship to law enforcement, would you consider
moving to another state
100
80
66
60
40 34
20
0
Yes No
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Summary of Reaction
to SB1070
• Latino opposition to the new law is overwhelming:
– 98% were knowledgeable of the law, SB 1070
– Transcends generation and transcends party
• Latino voters see the law as personally threatening:
– US citizens and legal immigrants will be targeted;
– Racial profiling will be the mechanism of enforcement;
– If immigrants were white, there would be no law.
• Majority support for the boycott, though modest.
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Arizona Latino Attitudes
2. National Immigration Policy
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Arizona Latino Attitudes
Most Important Issue
What do you think are the most important issues that
President Obama and the Congress should address over
the next year?
Immigration 59%
Fix the economy 22%
Health Care 17% Respondents could
select 2 issues
Create more jobs 13%
Education 5%
War on terror 4%
Banking reform 2%
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Support for Policy Reform
What should national policy be towards illegal immigrants?
70
60
60
50
40
30
20 17 17
10
3
0
Deport illegal Guest worker Pathway to Immediate
immigrants program citizenship legalization
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Support for Policy Reform
What should national policy be towards illegal immigrants?
100
90 85
78
80 72
70
70
1st Gen
60
2nd Gen
50 3rd Gen
40 4th Gen
30
20
10
0
Deport illegal Guest worker Opportunity for
immigrants program Citizenship*
* Combines path to citizenship and
immediate legalization categories
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Support for Policy Reform
How important that Congress passes immigration reform
before the November 2010 election?
90
78
80
70
60
50
40
30
20 13
10 6
0
Very important Somewhat important Not too important
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Support for Policy Reform
How important that Congress passes immigration reform
before the November 2010 election?
100
90 % who said “very important”
78
80 74
70 67
61
60
53
50
40
30
Arizona National National National National
May 2010 Mar 2010 Nov 2009 Apr 2009 Nov 2008
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Summary on National Policy
• The Arizona law has radically increased the salience
of immigration as an issue;
– Immigration is now the #1 issue to Latino voters
• Latino voters overwhelmingly prefer a policy option
that includes a path to legalization;
• There is growing impatience with the administration:
– Almost four in five voters think there needs to be a bill passed by the
November election.
– Support for a national bill is highest we have ever recorded
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Arizona Latino Attitudes
3. Partisan Implications and
Consequences
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Arizona Latino Attitudes
Political Implications
Which political party do you think is responsible for the
new immigration law in Arizona?
70
59
60
50
40
33
30
20
10
2
0
Democrats Republicans Both
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Political Implications
Party identification: Arizona Latinos May 2010
80
70
60 55
50
40
32
30
20
12
10
0
Republican Indep / Other Democrat
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Political Implications
Party identification: Arizona Latinos May 2010
Which party do you do you feel closer to?
80
71
With leaners
70
recoded as
partisans
60 55
50
40
32
30
20
20
12
9
10
0
Republican Indep / Other Democrat
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Political Implications
Which party do you plan to vote for in upcoming elections
for U.S. Congress and Senate in November 2010?
80
70 64
60
50
40
30
17 19
20
10
0
Republican Undecided Democrat
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Political Implications
Who do you plan to vote for in the upcoming election for
Governor of Arizona in November 2010?
80
69
70
60
50
40
30
19
20
12
10
0
Brewer Undecided Goddard
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Political Implications
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is
doing as President?
100
90 % who approve
81
80 74
73 73
70
60
50
40
30
Arizona National National National
May 2010 Mar 2010 Nov 2009 Apr 2009
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Political Implications
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is
doing as President?
70
60 % who strongly approve 57
50
40
40 35
31
30
20
10
0
Arizona National National National
May 2010 Mar 2010 Nov 2009 Apr 2009
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Partisan Fallout
Do you know Obama/McCain position on AZ immigration law?
70
60 56 56
50
40
30
20
10 6 5
0
Favors it Opposes it Favors it Opposes it
Obama McCain
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Partisan Fallout
Combined awareness of Obama/McCain on immigration law
Know where both stand 37
Only know McCain favors 19
Only know Obama opposes 19
Don't know either position 25
0 10 20 30 40 50
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Partisan implications
Do you think the Democrats in Congress are mostly ignoring
immigration, working to pass reform, or blocking reform?
60
50
42
40 36
30
20
11
10
0
Ignoring Working Blocking
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Partisan implications
Do you think the Republicans in Congress are mostly ignoring
immigration, working to pass reform, or blocking reform?
60
50
40 35 36
30
21
20
10
0
Ignoring Working Blocking
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Partisan implications
Do you think the Democrats in Congress are mostly ignoring
immigration, working to pass reform, or blocking reform?
60
50 46 May
42 April
38
40 36
30
20
11 10
10
0
Ignoring Working Blocking
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Partisan implications
Do you think the Democrats in Congress are mostly ignoring
immigration, working to pass reform, or blocking reform?
60
-10 working
50 +4 ignoring May
46
42 April
38
40 36
14 point
swing in 3
30 weeks time
20
11 10
10
0
Ignoring Working Blocking
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Partisan implications
Do you think the Republicans in Congress are mostly ignoring
immigration, working to pass reform, or blocking reform?
60
May
50
Apr
+4 ignoring +3 blocking
40 35 36
-7 working 33
31
30 28
21
20
10
0
Ignoring Working Blocking
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Partisan implications
Approve or Disapprove of Obama handling of immigration?
60
10 point
55
swing in 3
weeks time
50
- 8 approval +2 approval
48
47
45
45
40
40
35
30
Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove
May April
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Partisan implications
If immigration reform is not passed before Nov 2010, would you
say that is understandable, or going back on a promise?
60
54
-14
50 understandable
41 +12
40
understandable
40
29
30
20
10
0
Understandable Going back Understandable Going back
May 2010 - AZ Nov 2009 - National
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Partisan implications
Over the past year, do you consider yourself to be more excited
or less excited about the Republican Party
90
80
80
70 - 42 excited
62
60
-69 excited
50
40
30
18
20
11
10
0
More excited Less excited More excited Less excited
May 2010 - AZ Mar 2010 - National
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Partisan implications
Over the past year, do you consider yourself to be more excited
or less excited about the Democratic Party
60
-14 excited 49
50
- 2 excited
40
40 38
35
30
20
10
0
More excited Less excited More excited Less excited
May 2010 - AZ Mar 2010 - National
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Partisan implications
Over the past year, do you consider yourself to be more excited
or less excited about the Democratic Party
60
Among Democrats only 52
50
42 42
40
30
24
20
10
0
More excited Less excited More excited Less excited
May 2010 - AZ Mar 2010 - National
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Summary of Partisan Effects
• A majority of Latino voters blame Republicans for the
passage of the new law:
– But a third of Latino voters blame both parties;
• A growing number of respondents believe Democrats
are ignoring the issue;
• Both parties are paying costs for the issue:
– GOP costs more severe, but enthusiasm for Democrats is severely
constrained by perceived inaction.
– There is not a knee-jerk swell of support for Democrats, Latinos are
proceeding very cautiously with respect to Democratic support
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Arizona Latino Attitudes
Summary of Partisan Effects
• Generic two-party vote is Democratic, but soft:
– The undecided signals a weak vote share in November;
• Support for Governor Brewer among Latino voters is a
scant 12%;
• Obama approval overall appears stable (73%)
– However - the strength of support is weakening;
– And, a significant decline in approval for his handling of immigration
• Majority now believe that inaction on immigration
before Nov is going back on a campaign promise
• Only 42% of self-identified Democrats are “excited”
about what the Democratic party is doing today p46
Arizona Latino Attitudes
4. Impact on Voting in 2010
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Arizona Latino Attitudes
Impact on voting in 2010
How effect your decision to vote in November:
Congress passes comprehensive immigration reform
70
63
60
50
40
30 27
20
9
10
0
More likely to vote Less likely to vote Have no effect
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Impact on voting in 2010
How effect your decision to vote in November:
Congress NOT passing comprehensive immigration reform
70
60
50
42 41
40
30
20
12
10
0
More likely to vote Less likely to vote Have no effect
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Impact on Voting in 2010
Among those who follow political news very closely
How enthusiastic are you about voting in November 2010
Very much Not at all
80
73
70
60
47
50
40 34
30
20
12
10
0
Understandable Going back on promise
Obam a not passing im m igration reform before Nov-2010
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Impact on Voting in 2010
Among those who follow political news very closely
How enthusiastic are you about voting in November 2010
Very much Not at all
80
72
70
60
53
50
40
30 25
20 13
10
0
Ignoring immigration Working on reform
Dem s in Congress are ignoring or w orking on im m igration reform
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Impact on Voting in 2010
Among those who follow political news very closely
How enthusiastic are you about voting in November 2010
Very much Not at all
80
70 64
60
50 47
42
40
30
20 16
10
0
Republicans to blame Both parties to blame
Which party is responsible for AZ im m ig law being passed
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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9 Contact: 909.489.2955
Arizona Latino Attitudes
Summary of Effects on 2010
• Immigration can significantly affect the 2010 Elections;
• Perceptions of Democratic inaction, or the view that
the President has broken his promise on this issue,
substantially reduce enthusiasm for voting in Nov
• Affirmative movement on the issue is key to mobilizing
the Latino electorate.
• Throughout, Latinos who do not see Dems protecting
their interests, are very unlikely to vote in Nov
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Arizona Latino Attitudes
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS
• The Arizona statute has moved immigration front and
center in the minds of Latino registered voters;
– The issue carries high salience across all conceivable
demographics of Latino voters
• The Latino electorate’s response is more sophisticated
than some might have expected:
– They are suspicious of Democratic and administration commitment on
the issue;
– In the absence of action, GOP misbehavior will not be sufficient to
mobilize a Latino voting block, which is currently very energized
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