CHAPTER 17 - SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC

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					Existing Conditions and Trends Report                                  Social and Economic
Cimarron and Comanche National Grasslands

CHAPTER 17 – SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC

INTRODUCTION
In this report, a social and economic impact is a change in social, cultural, or economic
conditions that directly or indirectly results from a Forest Service action. The objective of social
and economic impact analysis is to identify potential effects the agency may have on local or
county systems and people using natural resources for consideration by resource managers.
Social and economic impacts are closely linked and interdependent with social impacts focusing
on cultural and lifestyle changes that may occur, and economic impacts focusing on Forest
Service actions that may directly or indirectly change the employment and or income in an area.
This analysis provides a description of the social and economic environment and trends in the
area surrounding the Cimarron and Comanche National Grasslands (Grasslands). The Cimarron
Grassland (Cimarron) is entirely within Kansas, in Morton and Stevens Counties. The Comanche
Grassland (Comanche) is entirely within Colorado, in Baca, Las Animas, and Otero Counties.

Analysis Area
The five counties included in the analysis area represent the region of direct economic and social
relationships and interactions with the Grasslands and its management policies. The Grasslands
affect the economic and social environment of each of the five counties differently. This is
strongly influenced by the portion of the county that is privately managed versus the percentage
of federally owned and managed lands.
Table 1 highlights the total county land base and the percentage that is within the National Forest
System as National Grasslands. The Grasslands cover just over a half of a million acres, or
about 9% of the land within the five-county area. In general, one may expect that Grasslands
management has less potential to affect the social and economic environment of counties that
have less land administered by the Grasslands (such as Las Animas and Stevens), whereas
Morton (Kansas) and Otero (Colorado) Counties, that have 21 and 23% of their land base within
the respective Grasslands, would be more affected by the Grasslands management decisions.




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Table 1. County Acres by Ownership
                                     National Grassland in County
                        Total
                                     Forest Service Acres1               Planning Area2
                        County
     County             Acres        Acres                   %           Acres                %
     Baca (CO)          1,637,147    205,881                 13          672,253              41
     Las Animas
                                                                                              6
     (CO)               3,054,583    64,829                  2           180,261
     Otero (CO)         812,257      172,903                 21          269,634              33
     Morton (KS)        467,723      107,591                 23          316,018              68
     Stevens (KS)       466,592      945                     0.2         6,057                1
     Total              6,438,303    552,149                 9           1,444,223            22
USDA-FS 2003, Colorado Department of Agriculture 2003).
1
    The Forest Service Acres includes only those lands administered by the Forest Service.
2
 The Planning Area is the area within the Grasslands administrative boundaries that includes Forest
Service-administered lands and also private and state-owned and state-managed lands.
The Comanche Planning Area includes about 1.1 million acres of land, 36% of which is in Federal
ownership and 80% is within private and state ownership, including several small towns served by major
highways. The Cimarron Planning Area includes just over 322,000 acres; 23% is in Federal ownership
and the remaining 69% is in private and State ownership. Table 1 highlights the significant checkerboard
ownership and in-holdings within the Comanche; the Cimarron is more contiguous ownership.

Grasslands-Related Discussion Topics
The following section highlights the lifestyle, quality of life, economy, and level of interest associated
with Grasslands management. It will be updated and edited after public comments are gathered and
issues identified.
Communities surrounding the Grasslands are generally concerned about the direction and pace of change
in their culture and economy. The Grasslands are viewed as contributing to sustainable levels of grazing
for the local livestock industry, offering a wide variety of recreation opportunities, and managing wildlife
habitat and access for both hunting and viewing opportunities.
The Cimarron is the largest block of public land in Kansas, and supports the local economy through
grazing and oil and gas activities. In Colorado, the Comanche supports local ranching and farming
operations, as well as small oil and gas activities.
The Grasslands see conflicts between user groups. For example, access is a minor issue compared to the
fragmentation of ownership and grazing management. Fragmentation affects access for all user groups, as
well as wildlife habitat. While local community members and grazing associates contend that grazing is
both appropriate and necessary for local operations, some environmental groups believe the fragmentation




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of the Grasslands affect wildlife habitat, and would like to see the Grasslands serve as a consolidated
source of habitat for wildlife and native vegetation.

DEMOGRAPHICS
Demographic information provides a general description of a community or region. It allows the decision
maker and the public to understand trends and changes within an area and how those trends influence or
are influenced by Grasslands management. Demographics identify potential social and economic impacts
for specific groups that are defined by age, race, etc., and influence the nature of social relationships in the
community.
The characteristics of population considered for this analysis include population and growth trends, age
composition, racial diversity, and households below the poverty level. These characteristics can reflect
conditions, management, or events on the Grasslands, or they may reflect independent factors or concerns.
Where possible, explanations of trends that are not typical of the State or region are provided. Otherwise,
trends are assumed to reflect some preference or response to natural, physical, or political framework, and
would be expected to continue in the future.

Population
Population, the number of people living in an area, is important to consider. The composition of the area’s
population can influence the ability of the area to absorb or adapt to changes. It is important to consider
any potential changes within the context of trends that are occurring outside Grassland planning activities.
In general, the population within the five county area of the Forest has been increasing since 1990. The
early 1990s saw rapid growth, while more recently, the rate of growth has leveled off, but the population
is still increasing as a whole. Table 2 shows 1990 and 2000 census data for the states and counties as well
as the total change over the 10-year period.
Table 2. Population in 1990 and 2000, by State and County
                                                                                                    10-year
                                         1990                      2000            Difference
State and County                                                                                    change
                                Number of People                                                 Percentage
Colorado                               3,294,394                  4,301,261         1,006,867         30.6
     Baca County                         4,556                      4,517              -39            -0.9
     Las Animas County                   13,765                     15,207            1,442           10.5
     Otero County                       20,185                     20,311              126             0.6
Kansas                                 2,477,574                  2,688,418          210,844           8.5
     Morton County                       3,480                      3,496              16              0.5
     Stevens County                       5,048                     5,463              415             8.2
US Dept. of Commerce 1990a, 199b, 2000a, 2000b
Population and Growth Trends - Figure 1 shows the population trend for the analysis area beginning in
1969 through 2000. The total population for each state or county has been indexed to 1969 in order to
graph the trends of all places without the state population numbers overwhelming the smaller population
numbers of the counties.




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Figure 1. Population Trends, 1969 – 2000 indexed to 1969 (US Dept of Commerce 2003)

                                                    Colorado
                                2.5
                                                    Kansas
                                                    Baca County
                                                    Las Animas County
                                 2
                                                    Otero County
   Population Indexed to 1969




                                                    Morton County
                                                    Stevens County
                                1.5



                                 1



                                0.5



                                 0
                                      1969


                                             1971


                                                       1973


                                                               1975


                                                                      1977


                                                                             1979


                                                                                      1981


                                                                                                1983


                                                                                                       1985


                                                                                                              1987


                                                                                                                      1989


                                                                                                                                1991


                                                                                                                                       1993


                                                                                                                                              1995


                                                                                                                                                       1997


                                                                                                                                                              1999
The overall growth for the State of Colorado shows the fastest trend, much larger than any of the other
areas. Stevens County shows the largest increase of all the counties and is higher than the State of
Kansas. All three of the Colorado counties have flat or declining population trends. This is consistent
with many rural, agricultural counties throughout the Great Plains.
The State of Colorado Demographer and the Kansas Water Office has population forecasts for their state
and counties through 2030. The expectations of population increases and declines are shown in Table 3.
Kansas Water Office relies on these forecasts to predict future demand for water.
Table 3. Thirty-Year Population Forecasts for Colorado and Kansas and Counties in the Analysis Area

                                                                                                              Population Forecast             30-Year Percent
   State and County                                                      Population in 2000
                                                                                                              in 2030                         Change in Population
   Colorado                                                                         4,335,540                 7,156,422                       65
                                  Baca County                                        4,517                    3,709                           -18
                                  Las Animas County                                  15,276                   24,396                          60
                                  Otero County                                       20,244                   22,724                          12
   Kansas                                                                           2,690,453                 3,330,832                       24
                                  Morton County                                      3,501                    3,552                           0
                                  Stevens County                                     5,456                    6,683                           22
Colorado State Demographer Office 2002, Kansas Water Office


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During the next 30 years, the population of Colorado is expected to increase by 65% from 4,335,540
people in 2000 to 7,156,422. Baca County is forecast to continue a population decline, from 4,517 in
2000 to 3,709 in 2030, a loss of almost 18% over the next 30–year period. Las Animas County is forecast
to increase in population, 15,276 in 2000 to 24,396 in 2030, an increase of almost 60 percent. Otero
County’s population is forecast to increase from 20,244 in 2000 to 22,724 in 2030, just over 12 percent
growth in 30 years.
The Kansas Water Office forecasts population (by county) to use in predicting future demands for water.
The State population is forecast to increase 24%, from 2,690,453 in 2000 to 3,330832 in 2030. Stevens
County reflects the State trend, with a forecast increase of 22%, from 5,456 in 2000 to 6,683 in 2030.
Morton County shows almost no change over the 30-year period with a population of 3,501 in 2000 and a
forecast population of 3,552 in 2030.
Age Composition - Figure 2 highlights each state and county by the age distribution for the 2000 total
population. Kansas and Colorado have similar overall age distributions. The two counties in Kansas
show similar age composition trends to the State of Kansas. The three Colorado counties show different
age distributions, with more of the population in the 65 and over category, and fewer in the younger-age
categories. With more of the total population in the older-age category, these Colorado counties may face
a decline or a continued decline in population, will have different income sources, and different
infrastructure needs to accommodate this population.

Figure 2. Age Distribution by State and County, 2000 U.S. Department of Commerce 2000a and 200b
                                 100.0
                                  90.0
                                  80.0
   Percent of total population




                                  70.0
                                  60.0                                                                          65+
                                  50.0                                                                          55-64
                                  40.0                                                                          35-54

                                  30.0                                                                          20-34
                                                                                                                0-19
                                  20.0
                                  10.0
                                   0.0
                                                              County




                                                                                 County




                                                                                          County



                                                                                                      Stevens
                                          Colorado




                                                     Kansas




                                                                                          Morton
                                                                       Animas
                                                                       County




                                                                                                      County
                                                                                 Otero
                                                               Baca




                                                                        Las




Racial Diversity - Racial diversity is limited in both overall state populations; all study area counties
follow similar trends, although several counties have seen greater change between 1990 and 2000 census
counts as shown in Table 4. All three Colorado counties had small increases in their American Indian
populations over this 10-year period, and all counties except Baca had increases in the “some other race”
category. Both Kansas counties had large increases over the 10-year period in their Hispanic/Latino
populations, while Las Animas and Otero counties in Colorado had a decline. Some of these changes
may be due to changes in the Census methods, which allow a person to select from more specific race
categories. In Morton and Stevens Counties, such changes in racial diversity are likely related to hog and
dairy farm development in the area which provide for additional unskilled job opportunities.




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Table 4. Percent of Racial Diversity by State and County, 2000 and 1990 Census (US Dept. of
Commerce 1990a, 1990b, 2000a, 2000b)
                                              American     Asian, Native                Hispanic or
                                 Black or      Indian,        Hawaiian,         Some      Latino
        Racial                    African      Alaska       Other Pacific       other     (of any
       Diversity       White     American      Native          Islander         race       race)
         2000                                        Percent of total
   Colorado                 85          4         2                 3             9           17
         Baca County        96         0.1        3                0.3            3            7
          Las Animas
              County        86         0.6         4               1             13           42
        Otero County        82          1          3               1             17           38
   Kansas                   88          6          2               2             4             7
      Morton County         90         0.4         2               1             8            14
      Stevens County        85          1          2              0.3            14           22
         1990
                       88        4           0.9            2               5           13
   Colorado
                       95        0.0         1              0.1             3           5
        Baca County
         Las Animas
                       87        0.3         1              0.3             11          43
             County
                       83        0.5         1              0.9             15          35
        Otero County
                       90        6           0.9            1.3             2           4
   Kansas
                       95        0.1         2              0.6             3           10
      Morton County
                       90        0.6         2              0.0             8           10
      Stevens County

Environmental Justice
Executive Order (EO) 12898 (February 11, 1994) directs Federal agencies to focus attention on the human
health and environmental conditions in minority communities and low-income communities. The purpose
of EO 12898 is to identify and address, as appropriate, disproportionately high and adverse human health
or environmental effects on minority populations and low-income populations.
Table 4 above highlights the minority characteristics of the five counties compared to Colorado and
Kansas state statistics. Table 5 shows county and state poverty statistics, percent of individuals living
below the poverty level, as defined by the U.S. Census Bureau. Because none of the counties in the
project area contain low-income or minority populations as defined by EO 12898, no additional outreach
or analysis has been completed. Low-income populations exist if 20% or more of the total population is
at or below the poverty level, and a minority population exists if 50% or more of the total population is
considered minority. Any management actions taken on the Grassland will effect the surrounding
population in a similar way – the potential impact will be felt proportionally by the total population
surrounding the Grasslands.




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Table 5. Poverty by County and State, 1980, 1990, and 2000 Censuses
   State and County                Percent of Individuals Below the Poverty Level
                                   1980                            1990                         2000
   Colorado                                     10.1                            11.7                      9.3
                   Baca County                  20.6                            19.0                     16.9
             Las Animas County                  20.4                            26.2                     17.3
                  Otero County                  20.3                            23.9                     18.8
   Kansas                                       10.1                            11.5                      9.9
                 Morton County                  11.6                            16.2                     10.5
                 Stevens County                  7.2                            11.8                     10.3
US Dept. of Commerce 1980a, 1980b, 1990a, 1990b, 2000a, 2000b
Although there are no environmental justice concerns, as defined by EO 12898, the Colorado counties do
have higher poverty rates than the state average it is important to consider the situation throughout the
planning process. Table 6 shows the percent of county populations, by race, that is at or below the
poverty level. Compared to state averages, most of the counties show higher levels of poverty within
several minority groups, but poverty within the white population is also higher than state averages.
Table 5. Percent of Population below Poverty Level, by Race, 2000 Census
                                                   American       Asian, Native                          Hispanic or
                                    Black or        Indian,        Hawaiian,            Some    Two or     Latino
      County and                     African        Alaska        Other Pacific         other    more      (of any
        State             White     American        Native          Islander             race    races      race)
                                                              Percent of total population
   Colorado State       12.32           1.13           0.37            0.50              2.91    0.85          6.30
         Baca County    30.11           0.00           0.44            0.09              1.55    0.97          2.97
          Las Animas
               County   24.71           0.00           2.42             0.18            4.79     1.74          18.64
         Otero County   24.60           0.31           0.92             0.09            9.15     1.51          21.63
   Kansas State         13.75           2.41           0.28             0.49            1.44     0.82          2.67
      Morton County     15.73           0.00           0.46             0.00            3.95     0.51          8.07
      Stevens County    13.44           0.00           0.37             0.00            6.33     0.29          8.49
US Dept. of Commerce 2000a, 2000b
Totals may not add to 100% because people can select a race as well as Hispanic or Latino.

EMPLOYMENT AND INCOME
Employment is important to consider, because one of the main functions of a region’s economy is to
provide jobs for its residents. Personal income measures the dollars that analysis area residents have to
spend and save. The general trends in employment and income of a region put the potential impacts of
changes in Grassland management in context of current trends and changes. In this section, general trends
are outlined as well as specific trends occurring in those sectors likely to be most effected by changes in
Forest Service management such as grazing, recreation and tourism, and mineral/oil/gas industries.

Employment Trends
Along with population changes and growth, employment within the analysis area has been changing.
Figure 3 shows the percent change in employment over the 10-year period from 1990 to 2000 by major


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sector as an average of the counties involved. Individual counties within the analysis area show some
degree of variability, but overall trends for this period are consistent.
Figure 3. Percent Change of Employment, by Industry Sector, between 1990 and 2000 for the
Analysis Area Counties

                        Government

                            Service
                          Non-farm
    Industry Sector




                               Farm
                             Mining
                               AFF

                       Construction
                      Manufacturing

                      Transportation

                                   -60   -40   -20   0      20     40      60     80    100    120     140    160
                                                     Percent change in employment, 1990-2000

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 2004.
*Some figures were estimated due to disclosure regulations of employment and income data.

Sectors defined according to Standard Industry Classification Manual, 1987.
       Government includes all Federal, State, and local government employees involved in executive,
               legislative, judicial, administrative and regulatory activities.
       Services include businesses engaged in providing a wide variety of services for individuals,
               business, government, and other organizations. Examples include; hotels, health, legal,
               engineering, and professional services; and other educational institutions.
       Non-farm includes private employment and government and government enterprises.
       Farm includes net income of sole proprietors, partners, and hired laborers arising directly from the
               current production of agricultural commodities, either livestock or crops. It includes net
               farm proprietors’ income and the wages and salaries pay in kind and other labor income of
               hired farm laborers; but specifically excludes the income of non-family farm corporations.
       Mining includes the extraction of minerals occurring naturally, quarrying, well operations, milling,
               preparation at the mine site, and exploration and development of mineral properties.
       AFF (Agricultural, Forestry, and Fishing services) includes businesses engaged in agricultural
               production, forestry, commercial fishing, hunting, and trapping and related services.
       Construction includes new work, additions, alterations, reconstruction, installations, and repairs of
               structures.
       Manufacturing includes the processing of materials (products of agriculture, forestry, fishing,
               mining, and quarrying) into new products. Examples include food, textiles, mineral
               processing, lumber, wood products, furniture, paper, machinery, and appliances.
       Transportation, public utilities and communications includes passenger and freight transportation,
               communications services, electricity, gas, steam, water and sanitary services and all
               establishments of the United States Postal Service.


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All sectors except for the farming industry show a larger increase in employment from 1990 to 2000. This
is likely due to a decrease in the net income of sole proprietors, partners, and hired laborers from the
current production of agricultural commodities, either livestock or crops for the counties involved.
Increases of non-farm employment occurred in Baca, Las Animas, and Otero counties. In Kansas,
Morton and Stevens counties saw an increase in farm employment, although not at a rate large enough to
counter the decline for Baca, Las Animas, and Otero Counties.
The largest employment growth in the five county analysis area was in the agricultural, forestry, and
fishing services (AFF) sector, which includes commercial farm operations. The AFF sector increased by
140% and this increase in jobs is related to dairy farm production, cattle industries, as well as food and
feed grains. Much of the growth seen here is based on individual farm proprietors (counted under Farm)
selling their operations to larger, commercial firms. So the activity and employment may be similar, but
it is counted under a different sector. Manufacturing and construction increased about 85% and 95%,
respectively. The remaining sectors saw increases in employment of 60% to 80%. The increases in
employment are associated with the moderate increases in population, especially in Las Animas and
Stevens Counties. This growth results in residential and commercial business increases, as well as in
development of the infrastructure required to accommodate the population increases.
In conjunction with population growth, employment in the trade and services sector has also increased
over the 10-year period; much of this growth has been in wholesale and retail trade. These sectors support
other industries, such as construction, manufacturing, and services, which have also shown growth over
this time period. An increase in the retirement community is also associated with population growth. The
percent of population of people aged 65 and older for the area ranges from 13%–22%. This portion of the
population creates growth in housing, medical facilities, and other professional services.
In all analysis area counties, health care is a large portion of the workforce, as shown in the services
sector. Health care includes such positions as ambulatory health care services, clinics for physicians,
dentists and chiropractors, as well as staff for general medical and surgical services.
Tourism services have increased over the 10-year time period. The related businesses are travel
accommodations, hotels, full-service and limited service restaurants, as well as drinking establishments.
Government employment has also increased and government positions now make up approximately 23%
of all employment opportunities in the five counties. This employment includes those in the local, state,
and Federal positions in the government sector.
Table 7 highlights the differences in the composition between the economies of the five counties. The
table displays the percent of total employment within each sector by county for 2000. Much of the
employment for all counties is within the services, non-farm, and government sectors (local, State, and
Federal).
Table 7. Percent Employment of Full-Time and Part-Time Employment, by Industry Sector, in
2000 for the Analysis Area Counties
                                    Baca          Las Animas      Otero        Morton    Stevens

                                    percent of total employment
   Non-farm                             69             92           93           84         81
   Farm                                 31              8            7           16         19
   Government                           26             24           20           30         24
   Services                             12             24           26           10         11
   Mining                               (1)            1            (L)           5          5


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                                              Baca              Las Animas            Otero         Morton        Stevens

                                              percent of total employment
   Finance                                          4                  7                6              4             (3)
   AFF                                             (1)                 1                2             (2)            (3)
   Construction                                    (1)                 7                4             (2)             5
   Manufacturing                                    2                  2                 7            (2)            (3)
   Transportation                                   4                  5                6              9              6
   Total employment (# of jobs)                   2,905              7,719            10,492         2,138          3,363
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 2004
(L) less than 10 jobs but included in the totals
(1) not shown to avoid disclosure of confidential information, but estimates are included in total. Mining, AFF, and Construction equal 200
jobs ~7%.
(2) not shown to avoid disclosure of confidential information, but estimates are included in total. AFF, Construction, and Manufacturing
equal 132 jobs ~ 6%.
(3) not shown to avoid disclosure of confidential information, but estimates are included in total. AFF, Manufacturing, and Finance,
insurance, and real estates equal 319 jobs ~ 9%.



Income Trends
Figure 4 highlights the changes in personal income between 1990 and 2000, by major sector. Again, this
shows an overall increase of percent income by every sector except for the farm industry, which showed
an overall loss in 60% in the analysis area with a large loss in Las Animas County. Nominal dollars,
which do not account for inflation, are displayed.
Figure 4. Change in Personal Income, by Sector between 1990 and 2000, Nominal Dollars (U.S. Bureau of
Economic Analysis 2004)


     Government

          Services

        Non-farm

              Farm

            Mining
                             Average
               AFF
                             Baca
     Construction            Las Animas
                             Otero
   Manufacturing             Morton
                             Stevens
  Transportation

                   -200           -150            -100         -50         0        50                         100             150
                                                           Percent Change 1990-2000




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The largest increase for the analysis area was AFF, although only two counties were compared because of
disclosure concerns in the smaller sectors in a county. All other areas had strong increases in the percent
change of personal income over the 10-year period.
Personal income is made up of various sources, such as earnings (non-farm and farm income), transfer
payments, rents, and other equivalents. The largest component is generally income from non-farm
earnings, which includes all wages and salaries that are not directly associated with farming activity. Farm
income includes proprietors’ net farm income, wages and payments-in-kind for farm labor, and salaries of
officers or corporate farms. Transfer payments include retirement, disability, income maintenance, and
unemployment payments made to individuals. Property income includes all dividends, rent, and interest
earned.
The Colorado State Demographers Office has completed several years of a Base Analysis by county. The
jobs and income associated with each basic industry are displayed, and several industries are further
broken down by sub-category. Because the State of Kansas does not have similar data by county, Table 8
shows only data for the year 2002 for the three Colorado counties. Las Animas County shows negative
income, or losses, taken in the agribusiness industry during 2002, as a result of ongoing drought
conditions. Also showing a loss, or negative income, is the effects of commuters in Las Animas County.
This pattern of negative income associated with commuters indicates that people from outside Las
Animas County commute into the County each day for work, but since their paychecks are cashed and
spent where they live, this income is considered a loss to the County. If these jobs were held by residents
of the County, the paycheck would be cashed and spent locally, as an asset to the County. Otero County
shows a positive income associated with commuters, indicating that people are living in the county but
working elsewhere. Of the total jobs in Baca County, 43% are in Agribusiness, and 30% in Households
(retirees, public assistance, or investment incomes), and 17% are in government (local, county, State,
Federal). The other counties show trends similar to Agribusiness and Households, which provide a large
portion of the counties’ economy.
Table 8. Basic Industry Jobs and Income by Colorado County, 2002 (Colorado State Demographer
Office 2002)
Basic Industry Groups                             Baca County         Las Animas County        Otero County
                                                          Income               Income                 Income
                                                 Jobs      ($000)     Jobs      ($000)       Jobs      ($000)
Agribusiness
                                                 1,011   $43,403.54    812   ($14,314.32)    1,701   $53,636.39
       Agricultural Production                    882    $40,372.86    613   ($19,587.78)     752    $29,509.11
       Agricultural Processing                     54     $1,287.63     76     $3,253.37      730    $17,997.89
       Agricultural Inputs                         74    $1,743.04     123     $2,020.08      220    $6,129.39
Mining                                             6       $239.40     131    $6,216.41        0        $0.00
Manufacturing                                      0        $0.00      103    $1,948.86       169    $5,399.49
Regional/National Services                        47     $1,099.89     210    $13,614.39      543    $17,640.01
       Communications                               0       $0.00        0       $0.00          0       $0.00
       Construction                                42      $864.43     164     $5,454.52      118    $2,884.11
       F.I.R.E                                     0        $0.00       0        $0.00         0        $0.00
       Trade and Transportation                     3      $208.22      40     $7,928.76       12    $5,016.55
       Professional and Business Services           0       $0.00        3      $188.14         5      $35.71
       Private Educational and Health Services      2       $27.24       3       $42.97       408     $9,703.64
Tourism                                           35       $441.31     439    $8,325.70       173    $2,930.10
       Resorts                                     32      $343.55     298    $4,028.66       150    $2,434.59
       Second Homes                                 0       $0.00       69     $2,472.08       0        $0.00
       Tourist Services                             0       $0.00       34      $742.92         6      $126.44

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Basic Industry Groups                                         Baca County        Las Animas County            Otero County
        Tourism Transportation                                3      $97.75         38    $1,082.05          16      $369.07
Government                                                   397    $9,657.20      147    $5,712.69         159     $6,150.66
Households                                                   712   $16,658.05     1,902  $52,522.95        3,214 $83,080.36
        Retirees                                             534   $12,504.45     1,489  $41,126.67        2,072 $53,550.89
        Commuters                                             1      $26.84       -179   ($4,946.36)        182     $4,704.10
       Households w/ public assistance income-
     excluding retirees                                      68      $1,590.63        373    $10,293.62     653    $16,872.15
       Households w/ dividends, interest and rental
     income-excluding retirees                               108    $2,536.13      219       $6,049.02      308     $7,953.23
Worker Local Res. Services                                   67     $1,579.54     2,894     $79,896.13     2,121   $54,813.08
Total All Industries                                        2,373   $85,324.39    7,208     $162,930.34    8,921   $267,000.71


The data provided by the Colorado State Demographer may reflect trends different from information
provided by other government sources. The Colorado Demographer has developed a different protocol
and organization of industry groups based on working directly with individual counties and field
verification. Because Kansas does not have similar data for comparison or model building, and because
the Colorado Demographer’s data is available for a limited number of years and does not offer trend, job
and income data must be taken from other sources to round out the analysis.
Figure 5 highlights the percent change in personal income from 1990 to 2000 by state and counties in the
analysis area. Overall, Colorado had the largest increase: almost 120% growth. The Colorado counties
also demonstrated high growth increases. Las Animas and Otero Counties had a positive growth increase
from 60% to 80%, followed by Baca County which showed the lowest increase: a 20% increase. Kansas
showed an overall increase, as well: an increase over 60%. Morton and Stevens Counties showed
increases around 50% in personal income.
Figure 5. Percent Change in Personal Income, 1990 to 2000, Shown by State and Counties in
Analysis Area, in Nominal Dollars (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 2004)


               Stevens

                Morton

                Kansas

                  Otero

            Las Animas

                   Baca

              Colorado

                          0          20               40            60           80          100          120          140
                                                           Percent Change in Personal Income




Table 9 highlights the personal income components for each county in the analysis area compared to state
statistics between 1990 and 2000. The majority of the components of personal income are net earnings,
which is true for all counties in both time periods. Although in all counties involved, a larger portion of

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income is associated with transfer payments and property income than the averages of these payments for
both Colorado and Kansas, this is especially true with Las Animas and Otero Counties. This is likely due
to the 13% to 22% of the population being of retirement age in all counties . The only county to show a
large change in the structure of personal income was Baca County, where there was a shift from net
earning to transfer payments over the 10-year period; property income stayed relatively the same.
Table 9. Components of Personal Income by County and State, 1990 and 2000, in Nominal Dollars
(U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 2004)
                    1990                                          2000
                    Net Earning      Transfer        Property      Net Earning       Transfer       Property
                                     Payments         Income                         Payments        Income
   Colorado                70%         10%             20%               74%            8%            18%
             Baca          66%         13%             21%               58%           19%            23%
      Las Animas           49%         28%             22%               50%           30%            20%
            Otero          56%         23%             20%               55%           28%            17%
   Kansas                  67%         12%             21%               67%           13%            20%
          Morton           58%         14%             27%               58%           17%            24%
          Stevens          67%         11%             22%               65%           12%            23%

County percentages of total transfer payments for income maintenance, unemployment benefits, and
retirement benefits are shown for 1990 and 2000 as compared to state averages in Table 10. The retiree
population percent has remained fairly static in all counties however; as the population has increased the
retiree population continues to increase as well. All counties have high retirement payments although only
the counties in Kansas are higher than that state’s average. The unemployment insurance benefits have
changed little as a percent of transfer payments; they are stable or have increased slightly in all counties.
While income maintenance for Baca, Morton, and Stevens Counties has increased slightly, those numbers
for Las Animas and Otero Counties have shown some decrease. These changes may be due to changes in
Federal policy for distributing aid, rather than specific changes in county dynamics.
Table 10. Components of Transfer Payments by County and State 1990-2000, in Nominal Dollars
(U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 2004)
                                    1990                                           2000
                   Income        Unemployment   Retirement &      Income       Unemployment     Retirement &
                 maintenance       insurance        other       maintenance      insurance          other
                                    benefits                                      benefits
   Colorado           9%              3%            88%             8%              1%              91%
          Baca        8%              1%            91%             12%             1%              87%
   Las Animas        13%              2%            85%             11%             1%              88%
         Otero       13%              3%            84%             12%             2%              87%
   Kansas             6%              3%            91%             7%              2%              91%
       Morton         5%              2%            93%             5%              2%              93%
       Stevens        5%              2%            94%             6%              2%              93%




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Per Capita Personal Income
Per capita income is a measure of the population and income of an area. Table 10 shows the per capita
personal income (PCPI) between 1990 and 2000 in both real and nominal dollars. Real dollars remove
inflation trends and allow for direct comparisons between years for each county and state in the analysis
area. This measure of income is calculated as the total personal income of the residents of an area divided
by the population of the area. Per capita personal income is often used as an indicator of the character of
consumer markets and of the economic well-being of an area’s residents

Table 11. Per Capita Income by State and County, 2000 and 1990, Nominal and Real 2003 Dollars (U.S.
Bureau of Economic Analysis 2004).
                                                                                             10-year
                                                                                             average annual
                      Nominal Dollars                   Real 2003 Dollars                    growth
                      2000              1990            2000              1990               percent
   Colorado           32,434            19,680          34,082            25,663             4.3
   Baca               23,126            19,155          24,301            24,978             1.9
   Las Animas         18,928            12,224          19,890            15,940             4.5
   Otero              22,003            13,953          23,121            18,195             4.7
   Kansas             27,374            18,177          28,765            23,703             4.2
   Morton             22,838            15,049          23,998            19,624             3.7
   Stevens            27,340            18,993          28,729            24,767             5.1
   United
   States             29,469            19,584          30,966            25,538             4.2

Colorado, Kansas, and the United States. Of the areas compared in Table 11, Colorado has the highest
2000 per capita income, but the per capita incomes of the three Colorado counties are lower than the state
and national averages. Las Animas County has the lowest, but it also shows one of the highest growth
rates. Baca County shows little change over the 10-year period in real dollars. Otero County has the
highest growth rate of the Colorado counties, but the 2000 per capita income lags behind both the state
and national averages. Kansas’ Morton County shows a similar trend: its per capita income is less than
both the state and national averages, but has shown growth over the 10-year period. Stevens County
differs from the rest of the study area: its per capita income is about $30 less than the state average, and
has higher growth rates than the rest of the analysis area.

Grassland Related Employment and Income
This section focuses on Grassland-related resource programs:
Range management
Recreation and tourism
Oil and gas production


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These three industries are directly dependent on Grassland-related resources and are the most likely to be
affected (positively or negatively) by Grasslands management. These industries’ production activities
occur inside and outside the Grasslands; in many cases the two Grasslands are not the only source of
needed resources. Additional information from rangers, demographers, and economic development
specialists will be gathered and included.

Forest Service Contribution
The following tables summarize the resource activity by program (Range, Recreation/Tourism, and
Oil/Gas) on the Grasslands. The information presented here was used to further estimate the contribution
of the Grasslands within the local economy in terms of jobs and income. For a complete description of a
specific resource program, please see the other resource sections of this document. Table 12 highlights
the range program outputs in terms of allotments, permitted use, fees collected, and a summary of annual
head months provided by the Grasslands. The decline in grazing activity in 2002 can be attributed to
drought conditions; 2003 will reflect a similar trend and a decline in grazing activity as drought
conditions continue to affect the range program.
Table 12. Annual Range Program Use and Fees Collected on the Grasslands, 1999 – 2002 (USDA-
FS)
                                                            Fee          Fee to                       Permitted
                      Allotments     Fee per HM 1         Collected     Treasury        Total HMs      HMs 1
     1999                224             $1.35            $162,370      $44,753          120,274        21,623
     2000                224             $1.35            $153,334     $1,392,886        113,581        18,738
     2001                224             $1.35            $148,254      $37,521          109,818        18,241
     2002                216             $1.54            $78,982       $21,925          51,287         14,722
     4- year             222             $1.40            $135,735      $374,271         98,740         18,331
     average
1
    Estimated
Table 13 summarizes the recreational uses on the Grasslands. Developed recreation use is limited
because of the small number of developed sites, but there is a large dispersed recreation program.
Dispersed recreation includes hunting, fishing, wildlife watching, and other activities that do not rely on
infrastructure or facilities.
Table 13. Annual recreation visits and fees collected on the Cimarron and Comanche National
Grasslands, 1999 – 2003 (USDA-FS).
                        Developed                Dispersed
       Year                                                            Fees collected        Total Visits
                        recreation visits 1      recreation visits 2

       1999             700                      38,769                $3,081                       39,469
       2000             803                      38,769                $3,873                       39,572
       2001             828                      38,769                $4,745                       39,597
       2002             644                      38,769                $4,233                       39,413
       2003             570                      38,769                $5,511                       39,339
       5-year           709                      38,769                4,289                 39,478
       average
1
    Based on an estimate of 3.5 people per campsite and 30 people per group picnic area.

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2
 Based on an estimate of 30% of People At One Time (PAOT) or seasonal capacity available, combined
Grasslands PAOT = 229,229).
Fees collected are from the Cimarron campground, Cimarron group picnic area, and Comanche Picket
Wire Canyonlands Auto Tour. Currently, fees are not collected for dispersed use, or any other sites within
the Grasslands. Estimates of developed recreation visits are based on the collected fees. Although the fees
collected have increased over the five-year period, the number of visits have decreased; this indicates the
variability in the proportion of campground fees and group picnic fees. The dispersed recreation visits are
estimated using a PAOT capacity measure and converting to visits, resulting in a stable estimate for the
five-year period.
Table 14 displays the oil and gas use between 1999 and 2001. This information is provided by the
Minerals Management Services, which has been working on national issues since 2001 and has not
released any additional recent data. The number of active wells is fairly stable, estimated to be 435 in
2003. The production of oil is slightly higher on the Comanche than on the Cimarron, but the Cimarron
produces more gas. All natural gas production is accounted for on the Cimarron.
Table 14. Minerals/Oil and Gas (USDA-FS 2004).
                                                                                       Natural
                       Oil          Oil          Gas           Gas       Natural Gas    Gas        Total
                   Production1    Royalty     Production2     Royalty    Production3   Royalty   Revenues4
     1999               234,951   $327,304     8,328,394    $1,644,310     626,451     $16,218   $4,096,259
     2000               163,729   $461,269     6,906,418    $2,038,443     981,184     $57,379   $5,208,659
     2001               132,080   $411,730     6,533,217    $3,459,817     656,874     $48,107   $4,000,669
     3-year
     average            176,920   $400,101     7,256,010    $2,380,857     754,836     $40,568   $4,435,196
1
    in barrels of oil
2
    in thousands of cubic feet of gas
3
    in liquid gallons of natural gas
4
    includes all royalties, rentals, and bonuses.

SOCIAL ENVIRONMENT
The social environment of a community or county includes the current situation and past trends related to
concerns with planning efforts. The social environment provides context for understanding the climate in
which decisions will be made and potential impacts may result.

Infrastructure and Community Resources
All counties in the analysis area have medical facilities, and several communities have specialized
medical clinics serving their local area.
Higher education is available within the analysis area at Trinidad State Junior College and Lamar
Community College in Las Animas County Colorado, and Otero Junior College (in La Junta) in Otero
County Colorado.
Transportation within the area includes U.S. Highway 287, which has been designated as the Ports-to
Plains Trade Corridor between New Mexico and northern Colorado. This designation is bringing
improved travel and safety on the major north-south highway. As an east-west highway, Highway 160
intersects Highway 287 just south of Springfield, Colorado. It serves as a major route across southern

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Colorado between Kansas and Arizona. Highway 50 from Pueblo, Colorado, and east to the Kansas state
line has been designated as a connector route and is being funded for major improvements starting in the
near future. The Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad is a main north/south freight line, with a short line,
the Cimarron railroad, serving the Walsh and Vilas east into Kansas. Several communities also support
bus service to the larger cities of Pueblo, Colorado Springs, and Amarillo, Texas.
Social associations and organizations are an important part of community and cultural life in this rural
area. The important formal and informal associations, which tie people of diverse backgrounds together,
include occupations, local businesses, schools, churches, local government, media and entertainment
centers. Agricultural organizations, like the Grange, Farm Bureau, agricultural suppliers, Cattlemen’s
Association, Soil Conservation Service, 4-H, Future Farmers of America, and others, which may have
dominated the cultural life of the area 50 years ago, do not have the same dominance they once had.
Today a multiplicity of organizations has arisen that matches the cultural diversity of the community
residents. The agricultural organizations have not disappeared, but reflect the relative importance of
agriculture to residents of the analysis area.

Lifestyles
In this analysis area, some segments of the community have strong traditional cultures, based on ranching
or agriculture. Residents in Baca, Stevens, and a portion of Morton, Counties are connected to their local
communities and enjoy the rural lifestyle, but they tend to be more connected south to Amarillo, Texas,
than to Pueblo or Colorado Springs. For these counties, Amarillo is the closest, largest metropolitan area
with extensive shopping opportunities and additional professional services that may not be available
locally. These counties also receive the majority of their news and television service from the Amarillo
area. The eastern portion of Morton County is most closely tied with larger service areas in Kansas, while
to the west, Las Animas and Otero Counties are strongly tied to Pueblo and Colorado Springs, Colorado.
As with so many rural places throughout the country, the declining population of younger people is a
concern. It is difficult for many young people to grow up in a rural community, and then find a
meaningful career path in their local area. Counties in the analysis area are working with economic
development plans to bring more industry and opportunities to their areas, and to encourage people to
stay, and to encourage others to move in and join their communities. Tourism is often considered, but it
is difficult to develop high wage, full time positions in the tourism sector. The wind power generation
operations are a growing source of economic activity that may provide local employment opportunities.
The new wind energy farm twenty miles north of Springfield in Prowers County is the fifth largest such
development in the nation. Serious consideration is being given to building a smaller energy wind farm
immediately southwest of Springfield. Some communities consider industrial sites, prison facilities, as
well as additional corporate agricultural operations, to be possible additions to their economic plans.

FEDERAL PAYMENTS TO STATES AND COUNTIES

Payments in Lieu of Taxes
Under the Payments in Lieu of Taxes (PILT) Act of 1976, to make up for lost property tax revenues to
counties, counties receive payments from the Federal government for having Federal lands within their
counties. Congress appropriates PILT payments based on a national formula, using population and
acreage of Federal lands and the value of other Federal revenues as key factors, is funded annually by
Congress.. The final annual PILT appropriation is based on the formula but is also sensitive to politics
and other national funding priorities from year to year. Table17 shows the amounts of PILT payments to
counties in fiscal years 1999–2003.

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Table 17. PILT payments to by county, 1999 – 2003 (BLM, PILT Web site).
                     Federal acres        1999          2000        2001         2002         2003
                     2003
                                          Nominal Dollars
  Baca County        204,919              252,973       219,044     212,792      145,648      204,920
  Las Animas         316,079              398,909       334,121     341,225      234,988      218,338
  County
  Otero County       181,265              227,544       198,724     191,060      131,007      108,201
  Morton County      103,295              18,776        16,644      15,791       10,890       9,800
  Stevens County     920                  167           148         141          0            0

Bankhead-Jones Farm Tenant Conservation Practice Act
Bankhead-Jones legislation, 1937, allows for the use of receipts for management of National Forest
System lands on the units from which they were earned. Collectively, these funds are called Conservation
Practice (CP) dollars. On National Grasslands, CP dollars have historically been obtained from grazing
receipts. Twenty-five percent of these CP dollars must be returned to the Treasury. The remaining 75%
may be used for a combination of conservation practices (50%) and for grazing association administration
(no more than 25%). The Forest Service and the local Grazing Association board develop a list of
required conservation practices. After the Forest Service approves the conservation practices, the Grazing
Association implements the conservation practices, with the grazing fees paid to the Forest Service
reduced up to 75% of total fees to account for the Grazing Association’s investment of money to
implement the conservation practices. Table 18 shows recent payments and a five-year average, and
authorized livestock use from grazing records.
Table 18. Bankhead-Jones Payments by County (in progress)
                            1999          2000          2001        2002         2003        5-year
                                                                                             average

  Baca County
  Las Animas County
  Otero County
  Morton County
  Stevens County




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DESIGN CRITERIA - LEGAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE FRAMEWORK
   1. The Multiple-Use Sustained-Yield Act of 1960 identifies guiding principles for managing the
      resources of the National Forest System. The direction to manage these resources for the greatest
      good over time necessitates the use of economic and social analysis in determining management of
      the National Forest System.
   2. The National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 requires that before any agency of the Federal
      government may take actions affecting the quality of the human environment, that agency must
      examine not only the potential impacts of that action on physical and biological resources, but also
      the socioeconomic consequences (40 CFR 1508.14).
   3. The Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act of 1974, as amended by the
      National Forest Management Act of 1976, establishes the requirement to consider economic
      effects in the land management planning process. Title 36 Code of Federal Regulations Part 219
      implements sections 6 and 15 of the National Forest Management Act. It provides guidelines for
      evaluating alternatives in forest plans and requires consideration of economic and social factors.
   4. Office of Management and Budget Circular A-94 (revised March 27, 1972) provides guidelines for
      evaluating the economic efficiency of Federal agency programs and projects.
   5. Office of Management and Budget Circular A-116 (issued August 16, 1978) requires executive
      branch agencies to conduct urban and community impact analyses of major initiatives and to
      conduct long-range planning.
   6. The Public Rangelands Improvement Act of 1978 requires economic analysis of grazing use on
      Forest Service administered lands, fee formulas, and funding of rangeland programs and
      identification of associated economic impacts on the livestock industry.
   7. Executive Order No. 12898 on Environmental Justice (issued February 11, 1994) requires that
      each Federal agency make achieving environmental justice part of its mission by identifying and
      addressing, as appropriate, disproportionately high and adverse human health or environmental
      effects of its programs, policies, and activities on minority populations and low-income
      populations.
   8. Bankhead-Jones Farm Tenant Act




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LITERATURE CITED

Colorado State Demographer Office. 2002. Economic Base Analysis by County.
       www.dlg.oem2.state.co.us/demog/demog.htm.

Colorado State Department of Labor. 2003. Population Projections. www.dola.state.co.us

Kansas Water Office. year unknown. 2040 population projections. http://www.kdhe.state.ks.us/water/.

Minnesota IMPLAN Group (MIG). 2002. IMPLAN Professional Version 2.0. Social accounting and
      impact analysis software. Stillwater, MN: Minnesota IMPLAN Group, INC.

New Perspectives Group, LLC. 2003. Arkansas Valley Marketing Coalition. CD-Rom, publishing
      location unknown.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2004. Regional Economic Information System, 1969- 2004.
       www.bea.doc.gov.

USDA. - Forest Service. 2004a. GDP Inflators. USDA-FS Inventory and Monitoring Institute.

USDA. - Forest Service. 2004b. Natural Resource Information System, Human Dimension Module.

U.S. Department of Commerce. 1980a. 1990 census of population, social and economic characteristics of
       Colorado. Bureau of the Census. Washington DC. www.census.gov.

U.S. Department of Commerce. 1980b. 1990 census of population, social and economic characteristics of
       Kansas. Bureau of the Census. Washington DC. www.census.gov.

U.S. Department of Commerce. 1990a. 1990 census of population, social and economic characteristics of
       Colorado. Bureau of the Census. Washington DC. www.census.gov.

U.S. Department of Commerce. 1990b. 1990 census of population, social and economic characteristics of
       Kansas. Bureau of the Census. Washington DC. www.census.gov.

U.S. Department of Commerce. 2000a. 2000 census of population, social and economic characteristics of
       Colorado. Bureau of the Census. Washington DC. www.census.gov.

U.S. Department of Commerce. 2000b. 2000 census of population, social and economic characteristics of
       Kansas. Bureau of the Census. Washington DC. www.census.gov.

U.S. Department of Commerce. 2003. Regional Economic Information System.

U.S. Department of Interior, Bureau of Land Management. 2004. Payments In Lieu of Taxes Database.
       http://www.blm.gov/pilt/



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U.S. Department of Labor, Occupational Safety & Health Administration. 1987. Standard Industry
       Classification Manual, http://www.osha.gov/pls/imis/sic_manual.html.




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