IPO Index and Export Rice Prices (US$t FOB - Source OSIRIZ) by bdu12746

VIEWS: 11 PAGES: 2

									InterRice
Monthly report of the world market of rice
May 2008
Patricio Méndez del Villar
patricio.mendez@cirad.fr

RICE: Global prices stabilization is confirmed
                                                                                  Market Trends

In May, the world prices remained globally high, but                                                             OSIRIZ/InfoArroz International prices Index (IPO)
stabilization, and even a decrease by the end of the                                                                         base 100 = january 2000
month, is confirmed. The arrival of the Asian harvest                                                      455
                                                                                                                             source: Osiriz/InfoArroz
tends to soft sales restrictions imposed in some                                                           435
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                                                                                                           395
exporting countries. By the buyers’ side, flatter prices are                                               375
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also expected. However, some traders suggest that they                                                     335
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will avoid massive sales in order to prevent from sharp                                                    275
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drops in export prices. There is a risk of stronger                                                        235
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speculation on both sides. Therefore, prices can be very                                                   175
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volatile in the following months.                                                                          115
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points, to 433.7 points (basis 100 = January 2000),
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against 370.6 points in April. By the beginning of June,
the IPO index had fallen to 376.9 points.

                              IPO Index and Export Rice Prices (US$/t FOB - Source: OSIRIZ)
                                              IPO            Usa2/4 Thai100B Thai5         Inde5               Viet5      Inde25        Thai25         Viet25          Pak25   A1Super
  2006                                       126,8            383          311      305     271                  268         235           274             248           229     219
  2007                                       143,6            442          337      328     298                  312         278           307             294           284     270
  JAN- MAR                                   219,3            602          499      489     464                  472         447           446             450           437     446
  APRIL                                      370,6            830          908      888     780                  863         748           790             760           575     748
  MAY                                        433,7            988          1024     998     900                1088          850           908             815           800     850
                          05-may-08          449,1            975          1100     1050    900                1100          850          1000             820           800     900
                          12-may-08          435,6           1000          1025     1000    900                1100          850           900             820           800     850
                          19-may-08          440,6           1000          1050     1040    900                1100          850           910             820           800     870
                          26-may-08          409,5            975          920      900     900                1050          850           820             800           800     780
                           02-jun-08         376,9            925          840      820     900                  880         850           740             700           800     700
Source: Osiriz/InfoArroz
                     Monthly Evolution of World Rice Prices                                                      Weekly Evolution of World Rice Prices
                         US$/t FOB Bangkok, Houston and Ho Chi Minh City                                               US$/t FOB Bangkok, Houston and Ho Chi Minh City
                                     Source: Osiriz/InfoArroz                                                                      Source: Osiriz/InfoArroz
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                                 Usa2/4   Thai100B   Viet5    A1Super
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                                                                        World production and trade
FAO’s new forecasts point to an increase of world                                          2007. A new expansion in rice areas, motivated by
production in 2007 to 653 million tones of paddy rice                                      higher prices, is only feasible after the 2008/09 season.
(equal to 435.2 Mt of white rice). 2008’s projections
indicate a new high by 2.1% to 666 Mt.                                                     The world stocks in 2007 were estimated at 105.5 Mt,
                                                                                           against 104.7 Mt in 2006. In 2008, the world stocks are
With world prices inflation, the global trade in 2008                                      likely remain around 105 Mt.
could went down by 10% to 28.7 Mt, against 31 Mt in
                                               Production of Rough Rice                                                                                       World Rice Stocks
                    675                                                                                                             160

                    650
                                                                                                                                    150
                    625
                                                                                                                                    140
                    600
    Millions tons




                                                                                                                     millons tons
                    575                                                                                                             130


                    550
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                    525
                                                                                                                                    110
                    500
                                                                                                                                    100
                    475

                    450                                                                                                             90
                          1985   1987   1989   1991   1993   1995     1997   1999   2001   2003   2005   2007                           85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 9 6 97 98 99 0 0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 0 8
                                                                                                                                      19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
                                                                    years
                                                                                                                                                                           years




                                                                                                            Export market

In Thailand, export prices had a moderate increase of                                                              In the United States, export prices went up by 20% in
12%, far below the previous months rise (50% to 60%                                                                May. In the beginning of June, it was possible to observe
per month). The export market continued active with                                                                falling prices, just like in Asia. The external market was
sales increasing by 67% in relation to the same period of                                                          very active, growing by 15% in relation to the previous
2007. Thai authorities calculate that exports in 2008 are                                                          month. In May, the Long Grain 2/4 was at $ 988/ton,
likely to surpass 10 Mt, against 9.5 Mt in 2007. In May,                                                           against $ 830 in April.
the Thai 100%B rose to US$ 1024/ton Fob, against $
908 in April. However, by the beginning of June, this                                                              In Mercosul, export prices increased by more than 50%,
product was quoted at $ 840. The Broken A1 Super also                                                              following Asian prices trend. In the beginning of June,
rose to $ 850/ton, against $ 748/ton. In the beginning of                                                          prices started to get steady like in other export markets,
June, the broken rice was at $ 700.                                                                                going down the line of $ 1000/ton. The new regional
                                                                                                                   harvest, larger than in the year before, starts to hit the
In Vietnam, high quality rice prices went up by 26% in                                                             market and prices tend to fall.
one month, exceeding Thai prices. In the beginning of
June, prices started to decrease due to the availability of                                                        In Africa, despite world prices relative stability, prices
the main crop, which arrives to the market. Even so, the                                                           remain, and they are going to continue, high. Such that
export restriction measures will not be banned before                                                              imports are projected to reduce, especially from India.
July. In May, the Viet 5% reached $ 1088, against $ 863                                                            African imports may reach 8.2 Mt in 2008, against 9.8 Mt
in April. In the beginning of June, it was at $ 880. The                                                           in 2007.
Viet 25% was pigged at $ 815/ton, against $ 760 in April.
                                                                                                                                Millions              Production                        Exports            Stocks
In Pakistan, prices strongly rose by 40% in one month.                                                                           ton                2007          2008         2007          2008            2008
The regional demand is still strong but the exportable
availability is scarce. Local authorities remain giving                                                             World                          654,5         666,5             31,0       28,7           105,0
preference to internal supply. Nevertheless, Pakistan                                                               China                          184,1         185,5             1,4         1,6            60,6
expects to improve its capacity of exporting and wants to                                                           India                          139,1         140,0             4,4         3,0            14,0
surpass 3 Mt in 2009. In May, the Pak 25% was quoted
                                                                                                                    Indonesia                       54,7          57,0              -             -            2,4
at $ 800/ton, against $ 575 in April.
                                                                                                                    Vietnam                         35,8          35,6             4,6         4,8             4,1
In India, local authorities keep rice export restrictions in                                                        Thailand                        30,3          30,5             9,5        10,5             5,3
order to assure internal supply. In 2008, rice exports are                                                          Brazil                          11,7          12,3             0,2         0,3             1,8
likely to go down to 2.3 Mt against 5 Mt in 2007, because
of a moderate increase in rice production.                                                                          USA                              8,8           9,0             3,3         3,3             0,8
                                                                                                                    Pakistan     8,2     8,1      3,0                                          2,0             0,3
                                                                                                                   Sources: USDA & FAO, May, 2008

                                                                                                                                                        Patricio Méndez del Villar, June 3th 2008
                                                                                                                                                                      patricio.mendez@cirad.fr




InterRice - Monthly report of the world market of rice
May 2008 - n. 51
This monthly report is made by Patricio Méndez del Villar, researcher at the Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche
Agronomique pour le Développement - CIRAD, in France (www.cirad.fr). The contents are available in four languages: French (Osiriz),
Spanish (InfoArroz), English (InterRice) and Portuguese (InterArroz) with the support of InfoComm project from the United Nations
Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD, www.unctad.org/infocomm/). All these versions can be found at the website
www.infoarroz.org. It is a partnership with Natural Consultoria & Comunicação, a Brazilian company that contributes to divulge this work. All
rights reserved. Osiriz, InfoArroz, InterRice and InterArroz are registered marks

								
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