WEEKLY MARKET WATCH

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WEEKLY MARKET WATCH Powered By Docstoc
					WEEKLY MARKET WATCH
  Issue No. 138 April 16th 2007 – April 21st 2007




                                                    Credit Libanais S.A.L




                         Research Unit


  Weekly Market Watch can be accessed via internet on the web address below:
                         www.creditlibanais.com.lb
                                                                                      CONTENTS
                                                                                      C


                     T ABLE OF CONTENTS

        LEBANON NEWS
                                                                    The Lebanese Banking Sector
        ECONOMIC INSIGHTS                                           In the banking sector, the consolidated
                                                                    balance sheet of commercial banks in
- The Lebanese Banking Sector                                  1
                                                                    Lebanon revealed a 0.50% monthly
- Lebanon’s Coincident Indicator                               1
                                                                    expansion in total banking sector assets
- Foreign Currency Reserves                                    1
                                                                    to LBP 114,110 billion in February 2007
- Balance of Trade up to February 2007                         2
                                                                    from LBP 113,543 billion in January
- Economist Intelligence Unit Forecasts a Conditional
  Growth for Lebanon in 2007                                   2    2007.
- Beirut Port Activity Up To March 2007                        3    Balance of Trade up to February
                                                                    2007
        CORPORATE NEWS                                              On the current account side of the
                                                                    balance of payment, the Higher
- Audi Bank Distributes Dividends to Shareholders              4    Customs     Council     revealed    that
                                                                    Lebanon’s balance of trade deficit
        MONETARY PERFORMANCE & PUBLIC FINANCE
                                                                    widened b y $ 212 million year-on-year
- Monetary Performance                                         5    to $1,310 million as at end of February
- Money Markets                                                5    2007, up from $1,098 million during the
- Public Debt                                                  5    same period in 2006.
                                                                    Economist     Intelligence Unit
        FOREIGN EXCHANGE & FIXED INCOME                             Forecasts a Conditional Growth
- Foreign Exchange                                            6     for Le banon in 2007
- Fixed Income                                                6     The        London-based         Economist
                                                                    Intelligence Unit (EIU) expects the
        LEBANESE EQUITIES & GDRs                                    Lebanese economy to grow by 2% in
                                                                    real terms in 2007 followed by a 2.7%
- Credit Libanais Indices                                     7
- Lebanese Equities                                           8     growth in 2008, contingent upon a
                                                                    favorable political climate. The EIU
- Lebanese GDRs                                               8
                                                                    attributed said consensus growth to the
                                                                    sizeable financial aids and supports
        ARAB MARKETS                                                secured by the Lebanese government in
                                                                    the aftermath of the Paris III Summit.
- The Egyptian Stock Market                                    9    Tunisia’s Inflation in March
- Tunisia’s FX reserves up to April 17, 2007                   9    According to Tunisia’s National Statistics
- Tunisia’s Inflation in March                                 9    Institute, the consumer price index
- Morocco’s Inflation in the First-Quarter in 2007             9    eased in March by 2.4% year-on-year.
- Bahrain Telecom’s Profits up to March 2007                   9    March’s contraction in the consumer
- Kuwait’s Central Bank Foreign Assets up to March 31, 2007    9    price index was mainly attributed to the
- The Kuwaiti Stock Market                                     9    2.4% decline in transportations costs. It
- Arab GDRs                                                   10    is    worth   noting    that    Tunisia’s
                                                                    government is expecting a 3.5%
                                                                    inflation rate for the year 2007
        U.S. MARKETS                                                compared to 4.5% in 2006.
- Jobless Claims in April 2007                                11    Consumer Price Index in March
- Consumer Price Index in March 2007                          11    2007
- Retail Sales in March 2007                                  11    The U.S. Labor Department reported
- Housing Starts in March 2007                                11    that the Consumer Price Index “CPI”
- U.S. Treasury Prices                                        11    expanded by 0.6% in March 2007. Core
- U.S. Market Indices                                         11    CPI (excluding food and energy) grew
                                                                    by 0.1% in March.
Weekly Market Watch

                                                                   RESEARCH UNIT
                                                                   SOFIL CENTER – BEIRUT - LEBANON
                                                                   TEL: 01-200028/9 FAX: 01-326786
                                                                                                                         ECONOMIC INSIGHTS


The Lebanese Banking Sector
In the banking sector, the consolidated balance sheet of commercial banks in Lebanon revealed a 0.50%
monthly expansion in total banking sector assets to LBP 114,110 billion in February 2007, up from LBP
113,543 billion in January 2007. This is attributed to a 0.82% monthly expansion in banking sector
deposits. Year-on year, total banking sector assets have grown by 6.48% from LBP 107,160 billion in
February 2006. On an annual basis, total banking sector deposits, including non-residents private sector
deposits, added 6.32% to LBP 95,016 billion as at end of February 2007, with dollarization rate advancing
to 76.01%, up from 72.31% in 2006.

Lebanon’s Coincident Indicator
Banque Du Liban’s coincident indicator, which is an index portraying the general trend in the economy, fell
by 3.16% on a yearly basis to 177.70 in December 2006, from 183.50 in December 2005, implying a
moderate contraction in economic activity.

                                                                                           Coincident Indicators




                                                                                                                                                                                            Lebanon News
                                                                                                                                                                                            Lebanon News
                                                        220
                                                        200
                                                        180
                                                        160
                                                        140
                                                        120
                                                        100
                                                         80
                                                         60
                                                         40
                                                         20
                                                          0


                                                                                                                             Jul-06
                                                                                Feb-06

                                                                                         Mar-06
                                                                       Jan-06




                                                                                                           May-06

                                                                                                                    Jun-06
                                                              Dec-05




                                                                                                                                                                      Nov-06

                                                                                                                                                                               Dec-06
                                                                                                                                                        Oct-06
                                                                                                                                               Sep-06
                                                                                                                                      Aug-06
                                                                                                  Apr-06




As far as the inflationary environment is concerned, Banque Du Liban’s consumer price index (CPI) rose by
5.49% on a yearly basis to 106.57 in February 2007, from 101.02 in February 2006, signaling a substantial
expansion in the average price of a Lebanese-consumer good-basket.



Foreign Currency Reserves
Banque Du Liban’s (BDL) biweekly balance sheet revealed a 2.80% expansion in Lebanon’s gross foreign
currency reserves during the first-half of the month of April 2007. More particularly, gross foreign currency
reserves rose by $351.54 million during the first-half of April 2007 to $12.92 billion, up from $12.56 billion
during the second-half of March 2007.




Weekly Market Watch

                                                                                              SOURCE:
                                                                                              ASSOCIATIONS OF BANKS                                              IN                     1
                                                                                              LEBANON , BANQUE DU LIBAN
                                                                                           ECONOMIC INSIGHTS


Balance of Trade up to February 2007
On the current account side of the balance of payment, the Higher Customs Council revealed that
Lebanon’s balance of trade deficit widened by $212 million year-on-year to $1,310 million as at end of
February 2007, up from $1,098 million during the same period in 2006. Total exports rose by 30.77% on a
yearly basis to $408 million, counterbalanced by a 21.84% expansion in imports to $ 1,718 million.

Balance of Trade                     For The Two- Month Period Ending            YOY
(US$ Million)                       February 2006        February 2007         % Change
 Exports                                312                  408                30.77%
 Imports                                1,410                1,718              21.84%
 Trade Deficit                         (1,098)              (1,310)             19.31%
Source: Higher Customs Council


                                                                       Cumulative Balance of Trade Deficit




                                                                                                                          Lebanon News
                                                                                                                          Lebanon News
                                                            USD Million
                                                             1,900



                                                                   0
                                                                           February 2006          February 2007

                                                             -1,900


                                                                          Exports           Imports         Deficit




Economist Intelligence Unit Forecasts a Conditional Growth for Lebanon in 2007
The London-based Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) expects the Lebanese economy to grow by 2% in real
terms in 2007 followed by a 2.7% growth in 2008, contingent upon a favorable political climate. The EIU
attributed said consensus growth to the sizeable financial aids and supports secured by the Lebanese
government in the aftermath of the Paris III Summit. On the other hand, the EIU pointed to the impact of
the July Israeli aggression on Lebanon which hampered the economic growth witnessed in the first half of
2006 resulting in a negative 6.4% growth for the full year 2006.




Weekly Market Watch

                                                                            SOURCE:
                                                                            AS-SAFIR ,    HIGHER     CUSTOMS          2
                                                                            COUNCIL , THE DAILY STAR
                                                                                                                  ECONOMIC INSIGHTS


Beirut Port Activity Up To March 2007
The Beirut port freight activity rose by 11.81% during the first quarter of 2007 relative to the same period
in 2006, reaching a total of 1,297,000 tons. During the month of March alone, freight activity improved by
15.5% to 508,000 tons compared to 440,000 tons in March 2006. Similarly, during the first quarter of
2007, the number of vessels expanded by 12.45% to 614 in comparison with 546 vessels through March
2006. During the month of March 2007 alone, the number of vessels rose by 12.38% to reach 236 vessels,
up from 210 vessels in March 2006. In this perspective, Beirut port revenues grew by 27.52% year-on-
year to $27.80 million as at end of March 2007, up from $21.80 million as at end of March 2006. The
following table summarizes the latest statistics reported by the Port of Beirut:

             Indicators         For The First Three-Month Period Ending   YOY
                                    Mar-06              Mar-07          % Change
Freight Activity(000 Tons)            1,160                        1,297                              11.81%
Number of Vessels                      546                          614                               12.45%
Number of passengers                  2,539                          0                               -100.00%
Number of Imported Cars              10,415                        9,839                              -5.53%




                                                                                                                                                                  Lebanon News
                                                                                                                                                                  Lebanon News
Number of Containers                142,246                       240,618                             69.16%
Revenues( $Million)                   21.80                        27.80                              27.52%
Source: Beirut Port
                                                                                      Beirut Port Freight Activity

                                                            1,600,000                                      1,335,840
                                                                                                                       1,361,328
                                                                                  1,362,150
                                                            1,400,000                          1,303,068                                          1,297,000
                                                                        1,158,604                                                        1,160,151
                                                            1,200,000                                                           1,079,232

                                                            1,000,000
                                                  In Tons




                                                              800,000
                                                              600,000
                                                              400,000
                                                              200,000
                                                                  -
                                                                         Mar-00


                                                                                      Mar-01


                                                                                                  Mar-02

                                                                                                             Mar-03

                                                                                                                       Mar-04


                                                                                                                                   Mar-05


                                                                                                                                            Mar-06


                                                                                                                                                     Mar-07




 Weekly Market Watch

                                                                                          SOURCE:
                                                                                          THE BEIRUT PORT, AS-SAFIR                                           3
                                                                                        CORPORATE NEWS


Audi Bank Distributes Dividends to Shareholders
Audi Bank’s extraordinary general assembly meeting held on April 18, 2007 reached the following
resolution pertaining to the distribution of dividends (after the deduction of a 5% dividend withholding
tax):

−   Holders   of common shares will receive a dividend of LBP 2,506 per share.
−   Holders   of Preferred shares “A” will receive a dividend of USD 2.85 per share.
−   Holders   of Preferred shares “C” will receive a dividend of USD 2.078 per share.
−   Holders   of Preferred shares “D” will receive a dividend of USD 7.36 per share.




                                                                                                               Lebanon News
                                                                                                               Lebanon News



Weekly Market Watch

                                                                            SOURCE:
                                                                            THE BEIRUT STOCK EXCHANGE      4
                                                                                                                   M ONETARY PERFORMANCE
                                                                                                                         & P UBLIC F INANCE


MONETARY PERFORMANCE

On the monetary front, all monetary aggregates closed on a positive note during the week ended April 5,
2007.The overall money supply “M4” rose by LBP 202 billion on a weekly basis to LBP 86,666 billion during
the week ended April 5, 2007. Lebanese-pound denominated deposits and currency in circulation, “M1”
advanced by 3.48% to LBP 3,241 billion, up from LBP 3,132 billion the week before.

Local currency, term deposits, “M2” posted a LBP 112 billion expansion during the week ended April 5,
                  Money Supply
2007 standing at LBP 23,791 billion. This has triggered a moderate LBP 3 billion expansion in the private
sector savings (“M2-M1”) to LBP 20,550 billion.
      84,460                                                                                                                   Money Supply
Money Supply
     84,440


                                          Money Supply
                                            March. 29, 2007           April. 05, 2007        % Change
     84,420
(LBP Billion)
     84,400
                                                                                                         86,700
 M1   84,380                                             3,132              3,241             3.48%      86,650
      84,360
 M2   84,340
                                                        23,679              23,791            0.47%      86,600
                 LBP Billion                                                                             86,550
 M3   84,320                                            81,736              81,962            0.28%
               January. 18, 2007    January. 25, 2007                                                    86,500
 M4             79,800                                  86,464              86,666            0.23%      86,450




                                                                                                                                                              Lebanon News
                                                                                                                                                              Lebanon News
 M2 - M1 (LBP Savings)
           79,600                                       20,547              20,550            0.01%      86,400
                79,400
                                                                                                         86,350
                                                                                                                   March. 29, 2007      April. 05, 2007
Source: Banque Du Liban
            79,200

                79,000

                         September. 7, 2006 September.14, 2006


MONEY MARKETS
On the money market front, the April 12 th Treasury bill auction raised LBP 282.327 billion, up from LBP
35.887 billion the week before. The auction revealed a surplus over nominal subscriptions of LBP 235.317
billion compared to a deficit of LBP 101.466 billion in the preceding week’s auction. The bulk of the
subscriptions were concentrated in the three-year to maturity T-bills, constituting alone more than 71.14%
of total aggregate subscriptions, followed by the two-year and one-year to maturity securities, which
constituted around 28.07% and 0.79% of weekly subscriptions respectively.

Certificates Of Deposits                            45 Days       60 Days
Lebanese Pounds
Interest Rate/Period                                    4.40%     4.89%

Lebanese Treasury Bills                          3 Months        6 Months      12 Months       24 Months          36 Months          60 Months
Treasury Yield                                      5.22%         7.24%              7.75%       8.50%             9.32%                9.45%




PUBLIC D EBT
As far as public debt is concerned, statistics released by the Lebanese Ministry of Finance show an annual
5.91% expansion in gross public debt to $40.85 billion as at end of February 2007, from $38.57 billion
during the same month in 2006. Of the total gross public debt, 50.09% is external debt while the
remaining 49.91% is domestic debt. Public sector deposits fell to $2.67 billion as at end of February 2007,
while net public debt rose by 8.93% year-on-year to $38.18 billion from $35.05 billion in February 2006.
Net domestic debt represented 46.40% of net public debt in February 2007, 3% higher year-on-year, while
foreign debt increased by some 6.25% to $20.46 billion.




Weekly Market Watch

                                                                                                      SOURCE:
                                                                                                      BANQUE DU        LIBAN         STASTICS,            5
                                                                                                      REUTERS, ABL
                                                                                                            FOREIGN EXCHANGE


FOREIGN EXCHANGE
As far as foreign currencies are concerned, the U.S. Dollar strengthened against major foreign currencies
on Friday owing to higher U.S. equity prices which boosted investor sentiment on the US economy. In mid
Friday session, the U.S. Dollar appreciated by 0.22% against the Yen closing at 118.70 Yen. Additionally,
the Euro depreciated by 0.13% against the U.S. Dollar closing at $1.3588 and the new Zealand Dollar was
trading 0.50% higher against the U.S. Dollar at $0.7473.

On a weekly basis, the Euro advanced by 0.44% against the U.S. Dollar to a market close of $1.3588 on
Friday, from $1.3529 in the preceding week’s closing. The U.S. Dollar retreated against the Japanese Yen,
closing at 118.70 Yen, 0.40% lower than the previous week’s closing. Furthermore, the Dollar depreciated
by 0.52% against the Swiss Franc on Friday, to a session close of 1.2080 Swiss Franc.

 Forex Markets                 USD                  JPY         CAD         CHF         EURO            GBP
  Lebanese Pds.              1,507.50           12.70         1,335.25    1,248.65     2,050.80      3,016.66
Source: Banque Du Liban, Reuters, CBS

FIXED INCOME
The activity on the Eurobonds front remained weak due to the ongoing political deadlock gripping the
country. Prices, however, fell on the back of news regarding an upcoming $400 million new issue by the
government. Additional details of this new Eurobonds issue should become available in the coming days.
Spreads finished the week at 390.27.

 Lebanese Eurobonds               Currency          Coupon     Maturity Issue Spread    Bid          Ask      Bid Yield Bid Spread
                                                             Government Eurobonds
 Lebanese Republic                   USD             8.630%     Oct-07      250        100.020     101.020      8.230%      321
 Lebanese Republic                   USD             7.380%     Jun-08      376         99.000     100.000      8.290%      343
 Lebanese Republic                   USD            10.130%    Aug-08       516        102.000     103.000      8.420%      360
 Lebanese Republic                   USD            10.250%     Oct-09      440        104.000     105.000      8.400%      377
 Lebanese Republic                   USD             0.000%    Nov-09       325        100.000     101.000      8.600%      397
 Lebanese Republic                   USD             7.000%    Dec-09       349         96.500       97.500     8.510%      388
 Lebanese Republic                   USD             7.130%    Mar-10       370         96.500       97.500     8.520%      390
 Lebanese Republic                   USD             7.880%    May-11       366         97.500       98.500     8.610%      402
 Lebanese Republic                   USD             7.750%    Sep-12       385         96.250       97.250     8.630%      406
 Lebanese Republic                   USD             8.630%     Jun-13      478        100.000     101.000      8.620%      403
 Lebanese Republic                   USD             7.380%     Apr-14       -          93.250       94.250     8.690%      408
 BDL                                 USD            10.000%     Apr-15      625        107.250     108.250      8.720%      409
 Lebanese Republic                   USD             8.500%    Jan-16        -          98.000      99.000      8.830%      418
 Lebanese Republic                   USD            11.630%    May-16       647        116.750     117.750      8.890%      424
 Lebanese Republic                   USD             8.250%     Apr-21       -          95.750       96.750     8.780%      408
 Lebanese Republic                   EUR             5.880%     Apr-12       -          93.000       94.000     7.620%      347
  Lebanese Republic                  EUR             7.250%    May-09       393         99.750     101.750      7.380%      323
                                                             Corporate Eurobonds
 Credit Libanais                     USD             6.880%    Sep-08        -          97.880       98.880     8.550%      375
 Bq Mediterranee                     USD             6.250%    Aug-07       322         99.250     100.250      8.860%      387
 Bq Mediterranee                     USD             7.630%     Jul-10       -          97.500       98.500     8.520%      390
 Bq Mediterranee                     USD             7.630%    Dec-12                   95.500       96.500     8.650%      406
 Audi Investment Bank                USD            10.750%    May-10       475        106.000     108.000      8.460%      384
 Fransabank                          USD             8.500%    Dec-07       542        100.000     101.000      8.470%      348
Source: Capital Market Credit Libanais, Bloomberg




Weekly Market Watch

                                                                                              SOURCE:
                                                                                              REUTERS, CREDIT LIBANAIS CAPITAL       6
                                                                                              M ARKETS, BLOOMBERG
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      LEBANESE EQUITIES &
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            GDRS


                  CREDIT L IBANAIS INDICES
                  On the Beirut bourse, the Credit Libanais Aggregate Stock Index (CLASI) fell by 0.97% week-on-week to
                  889.95 on April 20, 2007, down from 898.66 the week before. The negative performance of the index is
                  mainly attributed to the losses spotted by the Solidere “A” and “B” and HOLCIM Liban share prices. This is
                  further mirrored by the 3.78% contraction in the Credit Libanais Construction Sector Stock Index (CLCI), in
                  which Solidere “A” and “B” and HOLCIM Liban constitute all together more than 98% in terms of market
                  capitalization. Solidere “A” and “B” as well as HOLCIM Liban retreated to a market close of $14.99, $15.00
                  and $1.78 respectively down from $15.64, $15.55 and $1.84 in the preceding week. Simultaneously,
                  Byblos Bank Priority, BLOM Bank GDR and BEMO Bank listed share regressed to a market close of $1.86,
                  $68.00 and $4.15 respectively down from $1.92, $68.5 and $4.30 in the preceding week. On the other
                  hand, Bank Audi Listed share & GDR as well as Byblos Bank Listed share advanced to a market close of
                  $62.65, $64.00 and $1.82 respectively up from $61.50, $62.65 and $1.80 previously. The Credit Libanais
                  Financial Sector Stock Index (CLFI) however closed on a positive note last week, posting a 0.79% gain to
                  943.97, from 936.61 in the week of April 13, 2007.
                  The weekly index closing values and performance track are revealed in the section below:




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Lebanon News
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Lebanon News
                  Credit Libanais                                                                                                                                                                                 Closing                               Previous                                                            Net                                                      %
                  Indices                                                                                                                                                                                      20-Apr-07                              13-Apr-07                                                           Change                                                   Change
                  Credit Libanais Aggregate Stock Index <.CLASI>                                                                                                                                                  889.95                                           898.66                                                     -8.71                                                -0.97%
                  Credit Libanais Financial Sector Stock Index <.CLFI>                                                                                                                                            943.97                                           936.61                                                       7.37                                               0.79%
                  Credit Libanais Construction Sector Stock Index <.CLCI>                                                                                                                                         812.16                                           844.03                                                  -31.86                                                  -3.78%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Credit Libanais Financial Sector Stock Index
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Weekly Performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       CLFI


                                                                                                                                                                                                                1,050
                                                          Credit Libanais Aggregate Stock Index
                                                                  Weekly Performance                                                                                                                            1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Index Value




                                                                          CLASI                                                                                                                                  950

                                                                                                                                                                                                                 900
              1,050                                                                                                                                                                                              850
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          CLFI                                       0.79%
              1,000                                                                                                                                                                                              800
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         21-Feb-07


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      21-Mar-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        1-Nov-06




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              10-Jan-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             24-Jan-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     15-Nov-06
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   29-Nov-06

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 13-Dec-06
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                27-Dec-06
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          18-Oct-06




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           7-Feb-07



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        7-Mar-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  18-Apr-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     4-Apr-07
Index Value




               950
               900
               850
                                                                                                           CLASI                                           0.97%                                                                                    Credit Libanais Construction Sector Stock Index
               800
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Weekly Performance
               750                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       CLCI
                                                                                                                       07-Feb-07
                                                                                                                                   21-Feb-07

                                                                                                                                               07-Mar-07

                                                                                                                                                           21-Mar-07
                                                                                               10-Jan-07
                                                                                                           24-Jan-07
                                  01-Nov-06

                                              15-Nov-06

                                                           29-Nov-06

                                                                       13-Dec-06
                                                                                   27-Dec-06
                      18-Oct-06




                                                                                                                                                                       04-Apr-07

                                                                                                                                                                                   18-Apr-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                               1,200
                                                                                                                                                                                                               1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                               Index Value




                                                                                                                                                                                                                 800
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 600
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 400
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 200                                                                                                          CLCI                                                       3.78%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          17-Jan-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         30-Jan-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        18-Oct-06
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      31-Oct-06




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      12-Feb-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     25-Feb-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   10-Mar-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  23-Mar-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   13-Nov-06
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 26-Nov-06


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             22-Dec-06
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            4-Jan-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               9-Dec-06




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              18-Apr-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                5-Apr-07




                  Weekly Market Watch

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               SOURCE:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               CREDIT LIBANAIS RESEARCH UNIT                                                                                                                         7
                                                                                                LEBANESE EQUITIES &
                                                                                                 GDRS (CONTINUED)

  LEBANESE EQUITIES
  Activity on the Beirut Stock Exchange (BSE) gained              Audi Bank GDR was the top gainer of the week,
  momentum during the week ended Friday April 20,                 closing 2.15% higher on a weekly basis at
  2007 with some 496,107 shares changing hands, up                $64.00. Concurrently, Solidere “A” share was the
  from 209,710 s hares in the preceding week.                     top loser of the week, closing 4.16% lower on a
                                                                  weekly basis at $14.99. On the international
  Three gainers and eight losers were spotted                     front, the Solidere GDR witnessed a significant
  throughout the week with total market capitalization            contraction during the week, closing 2.56% lower
  standing at $8.43 billion, 0.91% below the                      at $15.25.
  preceding week’s $8.51 billion. Value traded rose by
  112.44% to $8.21 million, up from $3.86 million a               Heavy market capitalization-weighted Solidere
  week earlier.                                                   “A” & “B” revealed the largest 38.46%
  Solidere “A” & “B” shares led the weekly trades with            contribution to the week’s traded value with a
  208,177 shares traded. Other major trades included              turnover ratio of 0.13%. Other major contributors
  Byblos Bank listed and Priority shares and Holcim               to the week’s traded value included Audi Bank
  Liban with some 119,470 and 58,188 shares traded                and BLOM Bank GDR accounting for 27.57% and




                                                                                                                                   Lebanon News
                                                                                                                                   Lebanon News
  respectively.                                                   12.24% of total traded value respectively.


                                                       EQUITIES

                               Closing                Weekly        Total       Market        P/E      P/BV     YTD Price
                                           %change    Volume     Outstanding Capitalisation                       Perf.
                                                      Traded       Shares       ($000)
BEIRUT STOCK EXCHANGE
Solidere A                        $14.99     -4.16%    162,163    100,000,000    $1,499,000    44.09     1.39         -5.6%
Solidere B                        $15.00     -3.54%     46,014     65,000,000     $975,000     44.13     1.39         -5.9%
BLC "C"                           $10.00      0.00%          -     33,745,000     $337,450     25.64    13.37          0.0%
Banque Audi Listed Shares         $62.65      1.87%    19,325      32,766,240    $2,052,805    13.90     1.60         6.19%
Banque Audi GDR                   $64.00      2.15%     16,778      9,829,902     $629,114     13.19     1.51         16.4%
Bank Of Beirut "C"                $12.80      0.00%          -     13,535,945     $173,260      7.18     1.17         0.00%
Bank Of Beirut Preferred "B"      $11.50      0.00%          -      3,000,000       $34,500      n.a      n.a         0.00%
Bank Of Beirut Preferred "C"      $24.90     -0.40%    28,600       2,920,000       $72,708      n.a      n.a        -0.40%
Byblos Bank "C"                    $1.82      1.11%     13,900    205,023,723     $373,143     10.14     1.04         0.55%
Byblos Bank Preferred            $109.10      0.00%          -      1,000,000     $109,100       n.a      n.a         6.86%
Byblos Bank Priority               $1.86     -3.12%    105,570    206,023,723     $383,204       9.4      1.0         2.76%
Banque BEMO                        $4.15     -3.49%    23,809       5,400,000       $22,410     16.6      1.5         3.75%
BLOM Bank GDR                     $68.00     -0.73%     14,883      7,389,601     $502,493      7.79     1.18        17.04%
BLOM Bank Listed Shares           $58.50      0.00%          -      7,166,667     $419,250      8.05     1.22        -1.76%
BLOM Bank Preferred "2002"       $102.00      0.00%          -        750,000       $76,500    16.75     2.91         0.00%
BLOM Bank Preferred "2004"       $101.00      0.00%          -        750,000       $75,750    16.58     2.88         1.00%
BLOM Bank Preferred "2005"       $101.00      0.00%          -      1,000,000     $101,000     16.58     2.88         0.00%
RYMCO                              $1.00      0.00%          -     10,000,000       $10,000    12.50     0.68         0.00%
Holcim Liban                       $1.78     -3.26%     58,188    234,192,509     $416,863      33.6     1.87         1.14%
Ciment Blancs Bearer               $2.00      0.00%          -      6,000,000       $12,000    14.49     2.15         0.00%
Ciment Blancs Nominal              $1.43      0.00%          -      3,000,000        $4,290    10.36     1.54        10.00%
Uniceramic Nominal "A"             $0.90      0.00%          -      4,290,000        $3,861   121.62     0.72         0.00%
Uniceramic Bearer "C"              $1.75      0.00%          -      8,580,000       $15,015    236.5     1.40         0.00%
Beirut InterBank Fund            $101.00      0.00%       908         200,000       $20,200      n.a     1.00        -1.94%
Beirut Global Income              $99.00     -0.50%     1,000         340,000       $33,660      n.a     1.00        -1.00%
Beirut Lira Fund (LBP)           102,500      0.00%     1,500         275,000        18,698      n.a     1.00        -1.91%
Beirut Golden Income (LBP)       102,500      0.00%          -        410,000        27,877      n.a     0.99        -4.21%
Beirut Preferred Fund            $101.50      0.00%     3,469         325,756        33,064      n.a      n.a            n.a
GLOBAL DEPOSITORY RECEIPTS
Solidere                          $15.25     -2.56%                 8,870,000       135,268      n.a      n.a
Audi                              $64.50      1.42%                 4,361,566       281,321      n.a      n.a        1.901%
BLOM Bank GDR                     $68.20      1.04%                 4,389,601       299,371      n.a      n.a        4.294%
   Weekly Market Watch

                                                                                    SOURCE:
                                                                                    REUTERS, BEIRUT STOCK EXCHANGE             8
                                                                                                      ARAB MARKETS
                                                                                               M                P
ARAB MARKETS

The Egyptian Stock Market
On a weekly basis, the Cairo Stock Exchange Index fell by 0.61% to a session close of 2,518.62 last week,
from 2,533.97 the week before. Among losers, Orascom Telecom and Egyptian Resorts shares fell by 2.2%
and 5% to 78.98 Egyptian pounds ($13.90) and 25.10 Egyptian pounds ($4.42) respectively. On the other
hand, Orascom Construction Industries shares rose by 1.4% to 320.01 Egyptian pounds ($56.24).

Tunisia’s FX Reserves up to April 2007
According to Tunisia’s central bank, Tunisia foreign currency reserves stood at 8.64 billion Tunisian dinars
($6.71 billion) on April 17, 66% higher than the same period in 2006.The expansion in the Tunisian foreign
currency reserves is mainly attributed to a 9.4% rise in tourism receipts to 543 million dinars ($421.58
million) as at April 17, 2007 coupled with a 5.4% increase in expatriate remittances to 346 million dinars
($268.63 million).

Tunisia’s Inflation in March
According to Tunisia’s National Statistics Institute, the consumer price index eased in March by 2.4% year-




                                                                                                                                   Arab Markets
                                                                                                                                   Arab Markets
on-year. March’s contraction in the consumer price index was mainly attributed to the 2.4% decline in
transportations costs. It is worth noting that Tunisia’s government is expecting a 3.5% inflation rate for the
year 2007 compared to 4.5% in 2006.

Morocco’s First-Quarter Inflation in 2007
According to Morocco’s government, the consumer price index rose by 2.6% in the first quarter of 2007
versus the same period last year. The expansion in the consumer price index was mainly attributed to
rising food prices. It is worth noting that Morocco’s government is expecting a 2% inflation rate for the
year 2007.

Bahrain Telecom profits up to March 2007
Bahrain Telecommunications Co. “Batelco” posted its 2007 first-quarter net profits of 25.3 million Bahraini
dinars ($67.11 million), up 7.7% compared with the same period in 2006. On the other hand, the
company’s revenues increased by an annual 26.4% to 66.53 million dinars ($176.47 million) as at end of
March 2007 up from 52.63 million dinars ($139.60) in the first quarter of 2006.


Kuwait’s Central bank foreign assets up to March 31, 2007
Kuwait’s Central bank revealed a 46% expansion (sharpest monthly increase in at least 5 years) in its
gross foreign currency reserves during the month of March 2007. More particularly, gross foreign currency
reserves soared by $6.56 billion during the month of March 2007 to 6.02 billion dinars ($20.82 billion), up
from 4.12 billion dinars ($14.26 billion) during the month of February 2007. This significant expansion
owes in the first place to local banks and speculators who have increased their portfolio holding in Kuwaiti
Dinars.

The Kuwaiti Stock Market
On a weekly basis, the Kuwaiti stock market rose by 2.48% to a session close of 10,650.30 last week from
10,392.60 in the preceding week. Among gainers , Agility and National Bank of Kuwait shares rose by
2.34% and 0.86% respectively. On the other hand, Kuwait’s Mobile Telecommunications Co. (MTC) shares
fell by 1.3% to a market close of 3.220 Dinars ($11.14).


North Africa        Last       Previous     Net        %     GCC              Last        Previous      Net         % Change
Indices                                   Change   Change    Indicies                                  Change
Cairo SE GEN IDX.   2,518.62   2,533.97   -15.35    -0.61%   Kuwait SE IDX    10,650.30   10,392.60    257.70        2.48%
Tunis SE IDX.       1,924.51   1,913.06    11.45     0.60%   Bahrain SE IDX   2,109.17    2,128.85     -19.68        -0.92%




 Weekly Market Watch

                                                                                     SOURCE:
                                                                                     REUTERS                                   9
                                                                                         ARAB MARKETS
                                                                                   M               P



ARAB GDRS

The Arab GDR market experienced a slight contraction in trading activity last week. One loser and two
                       n
gainers were spotted i the market throughout the week, resulting in a market capitalization of $2.16
billion compared to $2.23 in the preceding week. Orascom Telecom fell by 4.94% to $67.40. On the other
hand, Suez Cement and Commercial International Bank GDRs closed the week 6.36% and 2.04% higher at
$10.53 and $10.00 respectively.
`
                                  Arab Global Depository Receipts

ARAB GDRs             Last      Weekly        GDRs           GDR Market           Country      Fiscal Net. Yield
                               % Change     Outstanding      Capitalisation
CIB                   $10.00     2.04%           9,999,000             99,990          Egypt              1.54%
SUEZ CEMENT           $10.53     6.36%           7,750,000             81,608          Egypt              2.61%




                                                                                                                         Arab Markets
                                                                                                                         Arab Markets
PACHIN                 $2.50     0.00%           8,000,000             20,000          Egypt              6.01%
EL EZZ STEEL REB.      $9.70     0.00%           9,000,000             87,300          Egypt                 n.a
ORASCOM TELECOM       $67.40     -4.94%         23,000,000          1,550,200          Egypt                 n.a
BIAT                   $8.10     0.00%           3,200,000             25,920       Tunisia               5.08%
ARAB POTASH            $4.00     0.00%           3,622,500             14,490        Jordan              11.79%
QATAR TELECOM         $33.00     0.00%           8,500,000            280,500          Qatar             10.74%

                                                                                                  Source: Reuters




Weekly Market Watch

                                                                        SOURCE:
                                                                        REUTERS                                     10
                                                                                                                          U.S. MARKETS


Jobless Claims in April 2007
The U.S. Labor Department reported a contraction in jobless claims during the week ended April 14, 2007.
Week-on-week, the number of applicants filing for unemployment benefits fell by 4,000 to 339,000. The
seasonally adjusted four-week average rose by 5,250, to 328,750. The insured unemployment rate stood
at 1.9% during the month of April.

Consumer Price Index in March 2007
The U.S. Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index “CPI” expanded by 0.6% in March
2007. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) grew by 0.1% in March. March’s increase in CPI lagged behind
U.S. economists’ expectations of 0.7%.

Retail Sales in March 2007
The U.S Department of Commerce revealed a 0.7% expansion in March’s retail sales, owing particularly to
an increase in gasoline sales, clothing and building materials. Excluding gasoline, retail sales rose by 0.4%
in March. March’s expansion in retail sales outpaced U.S. economists’ expectations which centered upon a
0.6% expansion in retail sales.




                                                                                                                                                                                                             U.S. Markets
                                                                                                                                                                                                             U.S. Markets
Housing Starts in March 2007
The U.S. Department of Commerce also reported a 0.8% expansion in permits in March 2007 reaching a
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.544 million units. On the other hand, housing starts increased by
0.8% (its highest level this year) in March 2007 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.518 million.
March’s expansion in housing starts’ outpaced U.S. economists’ expectations of 1.50 million annualized
units.

U.S. Treasury Prices
U.S. Treasury prices closed lower on Friday on the back of the expansion in the Dow Jones Industrial
Average reaching more than 12,900 (the highest since inception). On a weekly basis, the U.S. 10-year
Treasury note closed at 99-20/32, yielding 4.67% from 4.76% in the preceding week.


U.S. Market Indices
For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 2.77% to 12,961.98, up from 12,612.13 the week
before. Both the S&P500 and NASDAQ Composite index closed on positive notes last week, 2.17% and
1.38% higher at 1,484.35 and 2,526.39 respectively.




                                                                                                                         Dow Jones Industrial Average
U.S. Market Indices
                                 13-Apr-2007      20-Apr-2007 % Change
Closing Levels
                                                                                 14,600.00
 Dow Jones Industrial Average      12,612.13           12,961.98      2.77%      13,600.00
 Nasdaq Composite Index             2,491.94           2,526.39       1.38%      12,600.00

 Standard & Poor 500 Index          1,452.85           1,484.35       2.17%      11,600.00
                                                                                 10,600.00
 10-Year U.S. T-Bond                 4.76%              4.67%                     9,600.00                                                           Dow Jones                                    2.77%
                                                                                                                                                         DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
                                                                                  8,600.00
                                                                                  7,600.00
U.S. Treasury Bills      1M      6M     2Yr     3Yr       5Yr      10Yr   30Yr
                                                                                                                                                                                    29-Nov-06
                                                                                                         20-Feb-06




                                                                                                                                 25-May-06


                                                                                                                                             11-Jul-06




                                                                                                                                                                                                               03-Mar-07
                                                                                             04-Jan-06




                                                                                                                                                                                                 15-Jan-07
                                                                                                                                                                        13-Oct-06
                                                                                                                                                            27-Aug-06
                                                                                                                     08-Apr-06




                                                                                                                                                                                                                           19-Apr-07




Yield (%)                4.90   5.05    4.65    4.58      4.57     4.67   4.85




Weekly Market Watch

                                                                              SOURCE:
                                                                              REUTERS, CBS M ARKET WATCH                                                                                        11
                                                                                                      CONTACTS
                                                                                                   U.S. M




CONTACTS



RESEARCH                Fadlo I. Choueiri, CFA   fchoueiri@creditlibanais.com.lb        961-1-200 028 EXT: 235
                        Reine Macaron            rmacaron@creditlibanais.com.lb         961-1-200 028 EXT. 232
                        Daniel El Jiz            deljiz@creditlibanais.com.lb           961-1-200 028 EXT. 230



MONEY MARKETS DESK      Robert Araman            raraman@creditlibanais.com.lb          961-1-200 028 EXT. 116
FX DESK                 Christian Hajjar         chajjar@creditlibanais.com.lb          961-1-200 027
CAPITAL MARKE TS DESK   Joe Raad                 jraad@creditlibanais.com.lb            961-1-322 191
                        Halim Abou Arraj         habouarraj@creditlibanais.com.lb       961-1-327 975

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 Weekly Market Watch

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