USA Club of Rome in cooperation by benbenzhou

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									USA Club of Rome in cooperation with the Mexican,
Canadian, Puerto Rican, Venezuelan, Brazilian, Argentine
national associations of the Club of Rome




draft copy for working
group



Progress Report on the
Study of the Future of
the American
Hemisphere
The 2005-2055 Future scenarios dissected


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Copy ite 2009
For any quotations of text, phases, figure, maps, charts or statistics use
Thorhaug et al. 2009.




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SUMMARY: ( there is
duplication to be cut)
The Western Hemisphere, now divided into 38 nations has an
abundance of biological, mineral, and physical resources including
extensive water, fisheries and other oceanic, animal resources, and
vibrant groups of peoples (and their cultures) speaking nearly
1000 languages. These resources have always been shared am ong
many nations. An example is the large schools of migratory fish
which proceed without boundaries between the nations. Other
examples are flows of air, river water and ocean currents. No one
nation can solve the future sustainability problem by themselv es,
but depend on cooperation with the others as did indigenous
trading nations throughout the hemisphere. For the first time, we
are presenting a future analysis of the next 45 -50 years of the
Western Hemisphere and its nations. Our group has had previous
authors present global future analyses, while this is hemispheric.
Much of the hemisphere is governed by constitutional democratic
governments for most of the hemisphere’s 38 nations created 235
to 150 years ago throughout the hemisphere. The intra -
hemispheric peace in the last 100 years (no intraHemispheric
Wars) has led to a stability enhancing hemispheric trade and
strengthening relations between nations. Relative balances of
human populations with food, water, other natural materials
including energy have been our good fortune to enjoy for
centuries, indeed twenty or more millenium. The question is if the
citizens will continue to enjoy these resources.
To quantify our analysis, we have used the International Future model ( Hughes, 1995)
for each nation , summed into 4 regions, then into the whole of the Americas. The 50
year future of the Western Hemisphere (2005-2055) (using the projections of Barry
Hughes’ International Futures Model, 1995) information has informed us, been
digested, and we have found critical problems for the following disciplines by
committees of wise experienced field practitioners in the following fields: 1.)Population;
2.)Food ; 3.)Health and drinking water ; 4.)Environment; 5.) Energy; 6.)Legal issues
;7.)Economic issues ; 8.) Poverty alleviation; 9.)Social issues; 10.) Language, Culture
and Art issues; 11.)Education; 12.)Governance; 13.)Security issues; 14.)Technology
issues; 15.) Religious issues. Debate and research to find wise solution sets to these
critical problems ensued . Solution sets to the critical problems arising in the future
which this model brings out have been explained by each disciplinary committee

             The models clearly indicate two separate, interrelated, sets of
             forward moving processes: First, the highly industrialized
             existence characterized by the large industrial urban centers
             scattered from Vancouver and Fairbanks to Santiago and Buenos
             Aires wherein a fossil-fuel based economy powers hundreds of
             millions of urban inhabitants whose lives demand a great variety
             of material resources and demand infrastructure support systems
             including a high level of medical, transport, energy, agriculture,



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water and other resources. Secondly, a rural existence, which
frequently is composed of indigenous mountainous citizens (the
original hemispheric inhabitants) in poverty ( less than $2/day/
person) with minimum demand on most resources (except forests
and water) and very little demand for infrastructure services. This
poverty population will have extremely high population growth up
to 131% in 50 years in the Northern Central America and the
Andes from Southern Ecuador south to Paraguay plus Haiti. This
process of life is coupled with very little access to services and
infrastructure resulting in very high infant mortality, low
education levels, almost no access to capital, and poor
infrastructure access ( clean drinking water, sewerage
facilities,etc). It is highly likely in this next 50 years that the two
sets of existences will robustly conflict about resources and
governance opportunities. We clearly see the beginnings of this
interaction occurring in 2009 in several ongoing paths: 1.)
migration from the poor nations into the richer; 2.) internal
migration to the cities for employment; 3.) civil disobedience of
the citizens living on less than $2/day in certain nations; and 4.)
civil demands in both a national and international setting
developing from Chiapas, Mexico to Bolivia. This interaction
between the two groups and their resource use and civil processes,
regardless of nation, we view as one of the large events of the
hemisphere’s next 50 years.
Other rapidly changing major events occurring simultaneously
includes resource depletion chiefly by the industrialized citizens:
problems from depleting fossil energy and its environmental by
products, fish, agricultural soil, forests, and CLEAN drinking
water. The chopping of forests for cooking and high population
rates are the major simultaneous events in the rural poverty group.
There are also critical sets of non-sustainable problems unique to
the highly industrialized groups which are likely to accelerate into
far greater problems than at present such as loss of capacity of
governance, corruption, air and water pollution due to weak
administrations, criminal groups operating outside government
control including internationally, etc. There are other problems in
the poor rural (or semi-urban) groups which include population
growth up to 131% in the 50 years, child mortality up to 117
deaths/1000 births, high maternal deaths, lack of education (
especially girls), cutting down the forests for cooking fuel (which
provide important oxygen, sequestration of carbon and other
services).
We have delineated sets of solutions for all these problems, which
when initiated now, rather than later when the crises appear, will
lead to sustainable paths for the nations and peoples who choose



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           to follow them. AWARENESS of being a part of the hemisphere
           and that all your actions reverberate to create the hemisphere’s
           future is one of the primary prerequisites of the changes to come
           for all together to create a sustainable path for our mutual future.
           Many other recommendations were made by the committees and
           listed in the RECOMMENDATIONS SECTION. The problems
           will for the first time be presented directly to stakeholders whose
           actions are having an effect on the hemisphere (such as
           woodchoppers and their resource managers in north Central
           American, Andean, and Amazonian forests; cement mining
           concerns; fishermen and their resource managers throughout the
           hemisphere, energy production units, etc.; local drinking
           administrators; coal mining companies), but also to national
           governments and their ministries, international government and
           local government when relevant (local drinking water managers).

For the first time, we are presenting an analysis of the next 45-50
years of the Western Hemisphere and its nations. We recognize
the abundance of biological, mineral, and physical resources of the
hemisphere, and the great value of the constitutional democratic
governance for most of the hemisphere’s 38 nations created 235 to
150 years ago throughout the hemisphere. The intra-hemispheric
peace in the last 100 years has led to enhancing the hemispheric
trade and strengthening relations between nations. Relative
balances of human populations with food, water and energy have
been our good fortune to enjoy for centuries, indeed millenium.
To aid this prediction we use the International Future model ( Hughes,
1995) summed into 4 regions, then into the whole o f the Americas.
The 50 year future of the Western Hemisphere (using the projections
of Barry Hughes’ International Futures Model) information has
informed us, been digested, and we have found critical problems for
the following disciplines by committees of wise experienced field
practitioners in the following fields: 1.)Population; 2.)Food; 3.)Health
and drinking water; 4.)Environment; 5.) Energy; 6.)Legal
;7.)Economic; 8.) Poverty alleviation; 9.)Social issues;10.)Language
Culture and Art issues; 11.)Education; 12.)Governance;13.)Security
issues ;14.)Technology issues;15.)Religious issues.



Debate an d research t o find wi se solu tion set s to t hese criti cal
probl ems en su ed.
          The models clearly indicate two separate, interrelated, sets of
          forward moving events: First, the highly industrialized existence
          characterized by the large industrial urban centers scattered from
          Vancouver and Fairbanks to Santiago and Buenos Aires wherein
          a fossil-fuel based economy with hundreds of millions of urban



                                                                                  5
         inhabitants whose lives demand a great variety of material
         resources and lives demand infrastructure support systems with a
         high level of medical, transport, energy, agriculture, water and
         other resources. The second existence is a rural existence,
         frequently of indigenous mountainous citizens (original
         hemispheric inhabitants) in poverty with minimum demand on
         most resources (except forests and water) and little demand for
         infrastructure services. It is highly likely in this next 50 years that
         the two sets of existences will robustly conflict about resources
         and governance opportunities. We clearly see the beginnings of
         this interaction occurring in 2009 in migration from the poor
         nations into the richer, and internal migration to the cities for
         employment, civil disobedience of the citizens living on less than
         $2/day in certain nations and civil demands developing from
         Chiapas, Mexico to Bolivia. This interaction between the two
         processes, regardless of nationality, we view as one of the large
         events of the hemisphere’s next 50 years, along with resource
         depletion, problems from fossil energy, fish, agricultural soil, and
         CLEAN drinking water. There is a critical set of non-sustainable
         problems of highly industrialized groups such as loss of capacity
         of governance, corruption, air and water pollution, criminal
         groups operating outside government control, etc. We have
         delineated solutions for all these problems, which when initiated
         now, rather than later when the crises appear, will lead to
         sustainable paths for the nations and peoples who choose to
         follow them. AWARENESS of being a part of the hemisphere
         and acting to create its future are the primary prerequisites of the
         changes to come to create a sustainable path for our mutual future.
         The problems will not only be presented to stakeholders (such as
         woodchoppers and their resource managers in north Central
         American, Andean,and Amazonian forests, fishermen and their
         resource managers throughout the hemisphere, energy production
         units, etc.), but also to national governments and their ministries,
         international government and local government hen relevant (local
         drinking water managers).



Introduction
Why would we study the future of the Western Hemisphere? We
live here and wish to see the hemisphere sustain itself fo r our
children’s and grand children’s futures. There are paths to the
future which may lead us to a far more satisfactory future than
others. We are attempting to predict which paths are the



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satisfactory ones so that disruption will not occur. What are the
present patterns of the people of the hemisphere’s use of their
resources and the nations’ population sizes and what will the
combination of these do to the hemisphere’s sustainability over
the next 50 years? We have used Hughes International futures
Model to answer this question. We do see good paths and bad
paths for us to take from the anaylsis.

Next we have outlined the critical areas which appear to us not to
be sustainable for the next fifty years under the present usage
patterns. Then we attempt (within the wisdom and experience of
our committee members’ ability) to find alternate patterns of
usage for these critical resource problems—alternative ones which
could result in a sustainable hemisphere. Finally, we intend to
take our new information directly to the stakeholders. These are
persons and groups who could affect the pattern s of behavior
changing critical points where either non-sustainability or
sustainability could occur.

We do this in hope that the paths toward sustainability will be of
value to peoples in all of the Western hemisphere. If the citizens
are knowledgeable about potential conflicts and crises well ahead
of time, a wiser path may be chosen to proceed to a sustainable
future by many stakeholders of the Hemisphere. Our process and
its results may also be of value to the Eastern Hemisphere and to
other continents, who clearly have many similar problems in their
futures.


Within is our progress report to date.

We live at a critical time when many problems, avoided in the past
by all the stakeholders, have formed a knot of conflict so that
these problems can no longer be avoided. We ask ourselves and
then act on the result, ―What will we leave our grandchildren?‖
We then ask this of the critical stakeholders.

A hemispheric model with critical problems and solutions has
never been done for solely the Western Hemisphere, although sets
of models have been done for the entire earth with different time
scales. Major modelers who are or have been USA Club of Rome
members (Meado ws et al., 1972, 1992, 2001; Barney et al. 1978,
Mesorovic and Pestel, 1978; Hughes, 1995) have calculated the
total earth’s resources and seen that the large increases in



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populations in Asia and Africa expected over the next 50 years
will degrade the level of life significantly for many living in these
regions. The Western (also kno wn as American) hemisphere has
not been modeled and examined separately from these earth
models except as specific nations. We have ascertained
immediately from our projected model that the Western
Hemisphere will not gro w to the human density per km square or
have the accelerated growth rate of the Asian or African
continents. But in some regions of our hemisphere, it is clear that
population density is already proceeding beyond its basic resource
sustainability and its governance capacity.

We also find that in terms of the planet Earth’s natural resources,
the Western Hemisphere is important to the whole world in its
remaining primal forests producing a large share of the globe’s
oxygen, for its 25% of the world’s fresh water, its food crops (the
food it cultivates to add to the whole world’s diet), its mineral
deposits, and for its rich and sustainable fish particularly of the
southern part of the hemisphere. Its people, pattern of various
constitutional democracies, inventions, global leaders, and
economies are also important to other parts of the world.

Assessing the particular hemispheric problems within a series of
interrelated disciplines is our present task. One of our members,
Dr. Barry Hughes, has carried this out numerically using his o wn
sets of equations in the 5 th and 6th generational models
International Futures model for the next 50 years (until 2055) in
terms of population, health, governance, economics, environment,
education, water, well being, and food production. We depend on
the Hughes research and underlying assumptions of his
International Futures (IF) model for the quantitative basis of this
study. We (the underlying committees) have studied the IF model
and decided on the critical problems that the obvious conflict
between a rapidly increasing population and limited land size and
limited resources will bring about in the fields of population,
social issues, health, drinking water, food, economics, legal
framework, environment, governance, religion, security, poverty
alleviation, language arts, technology, and culture will bring
about. Then with the wisdom from our combined professional
experience as well as information we can gather, we are presently
in process of finding what are the critical priorities of the
Hemisphere for the next 50 years and we are gathering solutions
which could either avert or significantly lessen crises and conflict
along the timeline to 2050.



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The study of what will happen in the next fifty years may be
critical to the total hemispheric sustainability. Unless wisdom,
good and wise governance of peoples and resources, and
modification of present patterns of behavior occur, many in the
hemisphere have realized that they may experience major
upheavals, not previously occurring in the hemisphere.




Our Story’s Introduction:



The Western Hemisphere was once attached to a very large continent (
Pangaea) which did not have an Atlantic Ocean, but only the Tethys
Sea surrounding it. The south end was attached to Australia, India,
South Africa, and Antarctica, while the north end was attached to
Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Russia and Europe. Gradually, the
earth’s forces separated South America from first India which scudded
northward to Asia, then Africa, Australia, Antarctica and finally South
Africa. Meanwhile North America drifted westward away from the
mid-Atlantic ridge as Europe drifted eastward while the Atlantic
Ocean grew, spreading out the sea floor between the continents with
lava from the earth’s core so that North and South American each
stood separate from Pangea. The North American continent also grew
with Central America emerging from the sea bed as well as the
archipelago of islands in the Eastern Caribbean. The Bahamas
separated from Florida as Yucatan Island bumped into Mexico and
finally, the Panamanian land rose from the sea cutting off the Pacific
Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean and creating one Western Hemsiphere
from various parts. Terrestrial plants and animals had inhabited the
land masses during this drifting time. The oceans were full of plants
and animals. Various climate changes had and continued to occur
including vast glacial and interglacial flooded periods in North and
South America. Oceanic plants and animals long occupying the Tethys
Sea and the emerging Atlantic and Pacific were cut off from the other
seas except at the Antarctic and Arctic ends of the hemisphere. During
these periods a series of dramatic changes in mountainous regions
through subduction and volcanism occurred in central and then
Eastern and finally Western North America. These were matched by
similar events in western South America as the Andes arose from deep
earth activities and the large coastal plains of Brazil, Argentina -
Uruguay and Venezuela-Guyana became upland from the seafloor .
Some areas of seafloor experienced thousands of meters of uplift by


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geological processes. Vast forests appeared as well as abundant water
sources from both ground water, precipitation, melting glaciers and
fossil glacial lakes. [The basic theory of continental drift was
proposed based on the similarity of plants from South America and
Africa by Alfred Wegener in 1912, first proposed by Abraham
Ortelium in 1596).

The American hemisphere was populated by human species
somewhere between 20,000 and 30,000 years ago surely coming from
the land bridge between Northeast Asia into the Bering straights to
Alaska exposed during a glacial period, and possibly from a variety of
other sources such as Asia and Africa and other directions by water
migration (T hor Heyderdahl). There were several thousand languages
and a population estimated between 20 and 80 million spread
throughout the Hemisphere when the first Europeans arrived to gather
fish and furs around 1000 AD.

During this entire 30,000 year period the hemisphere was sustainable,
except possibly in very small sites of intense agricultural civilization
in Meso-America. The rich soil, forests, wetlands, rivers and lakes
and marine and estuarine waters allowed a robust human culture in
many groups of the indigenous peoples, mainly based on hunting-
gathering the rich biota . In the 11,000 to 10,000 BC period the
Andean inhabitants began cultivating their rich and unique flora such
as potatoes, squash, maize, chili, tobacco, bean varieties, manioc,
peppers, tomato, arrowroot, and chocolate well as domesticated
animals such as cameloids (vicunas, llamas, alpacas, guanacos), birds,
dogs and small mammals. These technical advances and others
possibly simultaneous passed throughout the trading ranges which
included areas as far north as central North America. The estuaries,
and banks of the coastal rivers and Midwest North American river
valleys were particularly fertile areas for agricultural development.
An entirely new set of plants were domesticated (as differentiated
from the middle East, the African, or the Chinese) during this period
for management of risk in food production (drought, famine, weather
events) so that by the time the Viking traders/hunters (1000 AD) and
then the groups of explorers (1492 onward) entered they found large
urban centers in many locations of the hemisphere.

The first European explorers, recorded as the Norwegian-born Leif
Erickson in 1000 AD with his group, sailed the very short distance
westward from western Greenland to the continental land mass. They
came repeatedly over hundreds of years to export fish and furs along
the Canadian Maritimes, Hudson Bay coasts and rivers down into



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central USA, leaving traces of runes but no permanent settlements,
and having various relations with indigenous tribes .

Informed by the Icelandic legend (skalds) about a new hemisphere to
the west from mid-ocean trawling Icelandic fishermen who moored at
Canary Islands ports off the Spanish coast, the Italian Christopher
Columbus (financed by the Spanish Throne) sailed west bumping into
the small San Salvador Island and other adjacent Bahamian Islands
then jogging southward to Hispaniola, Jamaica and other islands on
later voyages. He claimed these lands for the Spanish throne, all of
which areas were inhabited by the indigenous peoples of the
Americas. Immediately, explorers transporting national militaries
poured into the hemisphere from a series of European nations (Spain,
England, Netherlands, Portugal, France, Austria, Italy, Denmark)
claiming lands they found inhabited by indigenous peoples as property
of their mother countries. A wave of European immigration followed
the explorers and Military from Europe. Subsequently, waves of
immigrants from Africa (frequently not arriving voluntarily for the
sub-Saharan groups), and Asia pouring into the all portions of the
hemisphere from the Arctic to Antarctic for the next four hundred
years chiefly driven by a desire to exploit the ―New World’s‖
resources, but in some cases to avoid the conflicts in their mother
nations.
A series of revolutions from the European colonizing powers occurred
from 1770’s on ward, some more disruptive than others. Washington,
Adams, Bolivar, Jose de San Martin, Christophe and others were
extremely important in these revolutionary affairs and creating
constitutional democracies throughout the hemisphere. These
revolutionaries were interested in creating a Western hemisphere
identity, differing from the colonial cul tures which they were
separating from. They were keenly aware of one another’s revolutions
and helped one another in the battles as well as the nation -building
after the revolution from the European power was ended.
In the nineteenth and twentieth centuri es, the hemisphere passed from
an agricultural area to industrial. An enormous technology was built
not only with imported inventions from Europe and Asia, but
technology created in the Western Hemisphere such as Norman
Borlaug and the green revolution (wheat 1940’s), John Fitch, the
steam engine ( 1794), Joseph Henry, the telegraph (1831), National
parks, Andrew Jackson ( 1832), John Avery and Hiram Abial Pitts, the
threshing machine (1837), the Colt revolver (1839), steel plow, John
Deer (1839), Alexander Graham Bell (telephone), Wilbur and Orville
Wright (airplane), Henry Ford (assembly line automobiles),
computers and personal computers, many medical and scientific
advances. In the twentieth century enormous pioneer breakthroughs
from Chile and Argentina to Canada in many artistic forms from




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literature to fine art and music created a Western Hemisphere voice
truly authentic and of the experience in the Hemisphere.

During and because of these diasporas and the simultaneous
industrialization of both Europe and the Western hemisphere, as well
as intensive use of its biological and mineral resources, the
sustainability of the hemisphere has come to be highly sensitive to the
887.3 million persons living in the western hemisphere in 2005. Many
believe a ―tipping‖ point has been reached. New patterns of existence
are clearly necessary to proceed sustainably.




The Resources of the American
Hemisphere:
The American Hemisphere has been blessed with unusually abundant
natural resources, partly because of the pre-Columbian history of
sustainability due to a small population, and partly due to a
coincidence of the natural world. It is extremely important that we
retain this present level of natural resources now that a logarithmic
level of resource usage has been reached. So that we not squander the
resources in a generation or two. The reason that perhaps there is such
an abundance of resources is that the European experience only
impacted and began degrading the hemisphere some 450 years ago.
There is about 30% of the world’s fresh water in the hemisphere.
Three of the four natural expanses of forest which Meadows et al.
(2004) discuss as critical to oxygen production for the planet and
other important natural resources are in the hemisphere (the Canadian-
USA northern forest, the Amazon--shared by 7 nations--and the forest
from Alaska to Chile in the mountain ranges of the Pacific coast
nations). There is abundant and fertile farmland found throughout the
nations. The inland, coastal and oceanic fisheries are vast and have
the only two remaining non-degraded fisheries of 12 regions in the
world (according to FAO) in the southeastern and southwestern South
American coasts. Almost all of the 38 nations have oceanic coast line
for fisheries. The oceanic space of the hemisphere is vast and rich in
plants and animals partly due to offshore islands (Hawaii and Aleutian
Islands) and those held as territories (such as Guam, American Samoa,
Easter Islands, many Chilean and Argentinean Islands ) by many




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nations from Argentina and its Antarctic islands to Canada’s many
Arctic islands. This increases the size and resources of the nations.
The non-biological resources are also very great. Energy resources
ranging from fossil fuels, atomic energy resources, hydro energy, and
all the renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, ocean thermal,
ocean current, geothermal, natural fossil resources have abundant
renewable energy resources and frequently hydro resources. There are
metals, and other minerals in great abundance throu ghout the
hemisphere from Canada to Chile. Many of the nations have a great
deal of terrestrial land space per person such as Guyana, Brazil, and
Canada. All nations except Bolivia and Paraguay have extensive
oceanic space.
There are also societal and political positive endowments. There has
not been an intra-hemispheric war among the hemispheric nations for
the past 100 years. The borders are decided on with negotiation s. (
Although there have been internal wars within nations and wars in
which the nations of the hemisphere participated in other portions of
the globe and a small dispute of Peru -Ecuador solved in most part by
diplomacy.) There are 25 democracies which signed the UN treaty of
52 signatory nations, 60 years ago, all of which are still democracies.
Most of the 38 nations in the continent are constitutional democracies,
except Canada (a parliamentary democracy) and some colonies of
Europe (parliamentary democracies). There has not been a religious
war for a century or more, and many nations have religious tolerance
written into their constitutions. Presently there are 38 nations, some
fairly recently released by their colonial governance. Several
European Colonial powers still govern colonies in the Caribbean
Islands, the Atlantic (Faulklands, Bermuda) and Greenland. The size
of nations ranges greatly from the giants, Canada and Brazil, to
Belize, El Salvador, and Tobago and other small island nations.
The peoples themselves are of a wide diversity throughout the
hemisphere. Additional to the indigenous peoples, who number 50
million of pure Amerindian and over 300 million of mixed
Amerindian (dependent on the definition nationally, which varies a
great deal, the substantial number of whom are within Central and
South America). There is a mixture of European, Asian, African with
one another and the indigenous populations, which has bred
vigorously in very healthy ( hybrid vigor is the botanical term for the
increased health benefits from cross-breeding plants) groups of
peoples from the southern tip of Chile to the northern edge of Canada.
The island peoples of the Caribbean and Pacific , who are included,
also possess this hybrid vigor, which enhances the dynamism of the
hemisphere’s inhabitants and productivity.
The experience of settlers from other continents into a hemisphere
inhabited by tribes and groups of indigenous peoples who governed
themselves and had massive trade and international relations with one
another in Pre-Columbian eras, taught the immigrants from other
continents a great deal, which is reflected in many constitutions.
Many of the tribes had highly refined governance patterns, which



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changed many immigrants concepts of governance, including George
Washington and Simon Bolivar . The indigenous tribal councils, tribal
agriculture, hunting, and water rights were important learning tools
for all as were the indigenous use and respect for living and natural
resources, of the hemisphere, which had been mostly lost in the Asian
and European worlds from which the diasporas came. The experience
of self reliance was very important to the spirit of the peoples of the
Americas. No infrastructure or societal network was there to sustain
the needs of the pioneers throughout the nations. A hemispheric spirit
of self-reliance and fortitude and respect for nature was built,
differing from the European experience in this same time frame .
Foods not found on other continents sustained the earliest settlers
through their troubling and desperate first years. These were
frequently were farmed with great success with the new settlers’
technical skills gained both from the indigenous peoples and European
tradition. The foods were exported into other continents: corn,
tobacco, chili, tomatoes, potatoes, turkey, cashews, squash, pumpkin,
chocolate, vanilla, melons, and many more hemi-spherically native
foods such as boniata, nearly 3000 varieties of potatoes, and many
fruit. American hemisphere species of plants were under cultivation
for more than 10,000 years Pre-Columbus. The bountiful fish and
shellfish were favorite foods of the native American peoples and
indigenous capture methods were freely shared with the settlers. The
fur trade wherein the indigenous peoples partnered with the colonists
from the Western hemisphere supported many of the early colonists
(British, French, Dutch, Russian, Scandinavian).The Western
hemisphere changed the colonists who immigrated to the ―new World‖
which included an independent existence with no infrastructure to
support them, need for great resourcefulness on the frontier, new
foods, and their changes in the concepts of valuation of resources and
governance law and justice patterns. Since there were no kings in the
hemisphere, a democratic spirit arose in many locations ―far from the
kings‖ which included egalitarian values and simpler lifestyles. There
was within the various worlds living in the hemisphere more
similarities than differences. (The indigenous peoples were in some
locations and some times brought into this world and sometimes
excluded.)
Modeling of the Western Hemisphere.

We benefit greatly in these global modeling researches and from
the modelers themselves who proceeded us in the Club of Rome
USA, especially the Limits to Growth and its two updates
including Limits to Growth-30 years out by Donella and Dennis
Meado ws, Jorgen Randers et al.( 1972, 1992, 2004). The modeling
of Mike Mesorovich and Edward Pestel in Mankind at the Turning
Point and Multilevel Computer Model of the World Development
Systems, of Jerry Barney Global 2000 and Global 2000 Revisited,
What Shall We do (with coauthors), and James Botkin , Mircea
Malitza and Mahdi Elmandjra No Limit to Learning . These were


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all global models and in some cases such as Gerald O. Barney, (
USA 2000)_single nation models.
We particularly thank Barry Hughes, who has constructed the
International Futures Model and generously allowed us to utilize
his model. He receives great thanks from each committee . These
global researchers have all been extremely valuable to our
USACOR history to develop our forward thinking capacity and
to lay the broad outlines into which the results we lay forth herein
are a portion.
Our goal is to find ―do-able‖ solutions to the critical problems of
sustainability in the Western Hemisphere’s discipline by discipline
and their interactions including several ―soft ― subjects (not
immediately amenable to computer models which includes
language-art-and-culture, poverty alleviation, legal issues,
religious and ethical considerations as well as social issues) but all
of which subjects are extremely important subjects to the
sustainability equation.




Chapter I. POPULATION INCREASE in the
American Hemisphere 2005-2055.

The population of the Hemisphere was estimated to be 20 to
80million at the time of Columbus ( 1492) and whatever the real
number, fell drastically with the diseases transmitted in both
directions by the early European explorers, since neither the
indigenous Americans had natural immunity to European
diseases, nor the other way around hav ing been separated by
millennium at least. Health of the indigenous people has been
calculated from gravesite archeology and appears that North
American hunter gathers were taller and had better nutrition than
the shorter, more sedimentary central Mexican and Central
American agricultural peoples. (      ).


 Our concern is the future population . The projections of
population changes based on the Internationa Futures models
sho w a series of important results.The population of the American
Hemisphere will increase to 1.19 billion people from 887.2 million,
a 34.4 percent increase in the next 50 years. This is small growth
compared to Africa (138%), and less than Asia (37.6%) and the
world (44.9%) in the same time frame. Ho wever, this amount of
growth will create local disruptions, since population growth will
occur unevenly among nations. Frequently the highest growth



                                                                    15
comes to those nations which have their resources , infrastructure,
finances and governance already pressed to accommodate their
present populations. All of the high growth occurs in nations of
the hemisphere found in poverty.
Presently the population of North America is 438 million (or 49.3
% of the hemisphere). This is split between its three large nations
in both land and population size. All three have net immigration
as well as births increasing their population size. Hughes’ model
predicts that the increase will be 7 million for Canada at 33.5
presently (24.2 % gro wth), 87 million for the USA (29.7 %), and
37.6 million for Mexico to 137 million (28.8%) making 564 million
total population for North America or a 28.1 % average increase.


South America’s population is presently 370 million or 41.7 % of
the hemispheric population. The majority of peoples are split
between the large nations (Brazil, Peru, Argentina, Colombia,
Venezuela), having 86 % or 320 million and a series of smaller
nations (Uruguay, Chile, Paraguay, Ecuador, Guyana, Bolivia and
Suriname), which have 14 %. The increases will be to 500 million
population which is 34.4 % which are unevenly spread both in
absolute numbers and in percentage increase , with all the Andean
nations which have most of the indigenous peoples, especially
Paraguay (108.7%) and Bolivia (71.7%) increasing far more
rapidly than the others percentage-wise, especially than the
industrialized states.
The Central American projections are the most critical, since
three nations are projected to have over 100% increase, which has
been found to be hard to assimilate within a 50 year period .
Guatemala will increase from 12.8 to 28.6 million (131%),
Nicaragua from 5.7 to 11.9 million (109 %), and Honduras from
7.5 to 15.6 (113%), making a 25.5 million increase in a small area
of the hemisphere. Others also have high population increases
such as Belize (66.5%), El Salvador (59.8%) Panama (38.7%),
Costa Rica ( 47.1%), creating substantial growth in the fifty years
span, making the average 96.3% for the Central American region,
by far the highest population gro wth region in the hemisphere.
These are the smallest continental nations in the hemisphere and
have fewer resources to absorb this gro wth.
The Caribbean region will be extremely varied between Haiti
(96.9%) at the high end and Tobago at the lo w end. Beyond the
obvious migration problems to North and South America,
Bahamas, and Europe which this engenders, the total number of
increases are about 7.5 million, which is small compared to any of
the other three regions. However, on a small island, the limits to
resources are immediately seen, and an increase of this size can be
difficult to cope with.




                                                                  16
The greatest part of the gro wth from 887.2 million to 1.19 billion
is obviously found in the largest nations: Mexico, Canada, USA,
Brazil, Peru, and Argentina account for 191.6 million increases.
The 3 highest in Central America account for 25.5 million
increase. The 29 other nations in total account for 84.9 million
increase. However, the data do not include that the exiting of
Guatemala, Nicaragua and Honduras are likely to be to North
America and account for a portion of the growth there.
The geographic areas of high population gro wth nations are
important to understand. These nations will need particularly
good solutions to solve and govern the nexus of interactive
problems of poverty, health, social, educatio n, and food problems
that such a high increase in population create s. They are ranked
by percentage in this order: Guatemala (131%), Nicaragua
(113%), Honduras (110%), Paraguay (108 %), Haiti ( 96.9%),
Bolivia (71.7 %), Grenada (67.4%), Costa Rica (66.5%), El
Salvador (59.8%).These nations are chiefly in the mountains
which form the backbone of the Pacific Coast, with the exception
of Haiti and Grenada, which are in the Caribbean, but also
mountainous. Ho wever, not all mountainous nations (e.g. Mexico,
Ecuador, Costa Rica, Panama, Canada, USA, Argentina,and
Chile) have projections of such growth rates. The mountains may
reflect that the less po werful poor have been pushed to margin
land which is not on coastal plains, but in the mountains.


Interestingly, the low gro wth nations appear to lie at the two ends
of the Hemisphere plus the east coast of South America plus some
nations in the Caribbean archipelago. Notably all are positive
growth (except the small nations of Guyana and Suriname), unlike
Europe, which is a net negative, so that problems of too lo w a
growth will not be encountered in the hemisphere in the 50 years
of this study. In rank of lo west population gro wth these nations
are: Guyana (-17.3%), Suriname (-4.5%) Tobago (3.3%),
Barbados (3.6%), Uruguay (14.5%), Bahamas (22.4%), Jamaica
(22.7%), Canada (24.2%), Mexico (24.2%), Brazil (24.4%), USA
(28.8%), Argentina (30.6%), Chile (31.0%) .
The rest of the middle-gro wth nations have gro wth from 35% to
58%.
For population, clearly the critical problems will be found in
northern Central America, the land-locked Andean nations
Paraguay and Bolivia, and two Caribbean nations of Haiti and
Grenada. These nations are already beginning to affect their
neighbors with population overflo w. The concept of lo we ring the
population growth rate by choice involves many interactive
solutions such as better life choices via access to capital plus
poverty alleviation programs, better maternal and infant care to
lessen mortality involved with growth rate, better education of
women in poverty in these nations, and other programs of life


                                                                      17
betterment. Several nations have faced and achieved a decreased
population growth of large numbers in poverty such as Brazil,
Colombia, and Mexico. These could be used as models.


 We have the good fortune to begin when the model of Professor
Barry Hughes, which has dissected the nations of the hemisphere
in terms of an array of factors, population being a primary one,
has been accomplished. The information about the model is found
in Appendix I. We quote from the results of this model.




The critical problems which are most likely
to occur:
The obvious problems which doubling the size of the population
presents are enormous stresses on the natural resource utilization
such as doubling agricultural needs and drinking water, doubling
the social needs such as the schooling, employment, health care
systems, and governance problems (generally for increase in
transport, garbage, electrical, drinking water and other necessities
the government provides). Canada has one of the lowest
percentages of increase, and yet has the most land available into
which to expand their people as has Guyana. Although Canada
has a high level of both legal and illegal immigration, clearly the
births minus deaths play a part in Canada’s growth also with
longevity increasing and a very low infant mortality.
Among other problems, the populations in the high growth nations
will all be young, that is under 50 years old. This creates extra
needs for employment, schooling, health, housing stock and other
infrastructure needs greater than found in these nations at
present. Second, those existing inadequacies such as safe drinking
water or poverty alleviation through access to capital, will be
exacerbated with a 100-131% population increase.


There are 50 million indigenous people many of whom live from
Chiapas southward along the Andes and in Northern Central
America plus some in the Amazon basin’s 7 nations . There are
upward of 300 million people of indigenous plus ― other‖ mixture.
Many of these citizen live in the same areas, although Mexico has
a series of ―other‖ living throughout as does Brazil and Venezuela .
See Figure xx.




                                                                  18
Interdisciplinary PROBLEMS of the high population gro wth rate
nations in the next 50 years which potentially may tip the
sustainability balance.


1.)   Greater poverty shared by the rapidly expanding number of
      people who will be born into homes and into areas already
      in poverty ( under or around $2/day/person) . As the
      increased number of children are born to families in
      poverty, the difficulty of implementing results from poverty
      alleviation solutions increases.


2.)   Large numbers of deaths among the new born, still born,
      birthing women, infants and small children due to
      inadequate health care in the areas where the high
      population rate children will be born (highly unevenly
      spread health care services and health education in the
      exact nations of high growth rate).

3.)   High pressure on the agricultural lands and water
      furnishing these lands and fisheries resources as
      well as energy resources ( chiefly firewood and
      charcoal in poverty mountainous areas) to feed the
      increased population including problems of a.)
      expanding into marginal soils (most population
      growth is in high mountains) which may yield
      lower crop amounts ; b.) decimating any native
      vegetation (deforestation) in the expanding
      agricultural areas; c.)This is coupled with
      decreasing soil fertility due to incorrect farming
      practices; d.) Artisanal and subsistence fisheries
      used by the poor to supplement lack of protein in
      their children’s diets have already decimated fresh
      and coastal fishing in the Caribbean and much of
      North America.
4.)   Pressure on governance to provide the societal necessities
      for population increases of 50 to 131% (schools, drinking
      water delivery, health care, infrastructure, creation of jobs,
      etc.) in nations already pressed for government facilities.
5.)   Migration of the increasing number of young to urban
      centers for employment and thus fewer farmers to work on
      the food problem and more unemployed in the urban
      centers.




                                                                  19
6.)    Migration internationally to nations of higher income such
       as Paraguayans to Argentina and Chile, Central Americans
       to North America, Bolivians to Peru and Brazil , Haitians to
       Bahamas, Dominican Republic and Jamaica, U SA and
       Canada.
7.)    Greatly increased energy needs among the poor as their
       population expands for more fuel for cooking and heating ,
       which is likely to decimate forests further.
8.)    Greatly expanded energy needs throughout the hemisphere
       through increased industrialization, electrification, and
       rising transport needs, for the large industrialized nations
       whose increasing populations participate in the
       industrialized portion of the hemispheric economy . A period
       of intense pressure on fossil energy which is diminishing
       and possible disruption as the transition to renewable
       energy (which is highly abundant in the Western
       hemisphere) occurs during this 50 year period.
9.)    Accelerated pressure on natural resources from all of the
       sectors such as water, forests for lumber, f uel, and other
       resources.
10.)   Biodiversity diminution of important plants and animals for
       pharmaceuticals, foods, and other products as more people
       extend agricultural areas into forests, wetlands overfishing
       coral reefs ( Haiti, Jamaica) and other biodiversity
       repositories.
11.)   Loss of the religious faiths within the nations which in part
       contain the positive societal connections, the stewardship of
       natural resource connections, and the social philosophies
       which bind the peoples of the nations together.




Solutions to critical population
problems .
The report has been split into 15 committees each of
whom have after extensive meetings have found their
most critical problems and some beginnings of solutions
in their section’s disciplines:
1) Population issues and solutions
2)Food issues and solutions
3)Health and drinking water issues and solutions



                                                                     20
4)Environmental issues and Solutions
5) Energy issues and Solutions
6)Legal issues and solutions
7)Economic issues and Solutions
8) Poverty alleviation issues and solutions
9) Social Issues and Solutions
10)Language, Culture and Art issues and Solutions
11) Educational issues and Solutions
12) Governance issues and solutions
13) Security issues and Solutions
14) Technology issues and solutions
15) Religious issues and Solutions


The various committees have studied the computer
model’s data, have discussed in detail the hemisphere’s
problems within their committee’s, and among the whole
group and after extensive debate have come to a series
of critical problems and then potential sets of solutions
for these problems which appear most likely to disrupt
the sustainability of this hemisphere. The worked from
the data provided by the International Futures model of
Barry Hughes as well as from their own vast experiences
in practical matters within the field. Each member is an
experienced field worker within the discipline that they
advised on having extensive field experience within the
hemisphere and in other continents. The report herein is
a work in progress from these committees and a final
report will ensue in time.




Chapter II. Agriculture and food
Daniel Pauley, Nancy Nicholson, Mary Jo Ryan
Duncan, Anitra Thorhaug
Food and water are most basic needs which mankind has sought
during its history over tens of thousands of years in the
hemisphere. Few except fishermen hunt and gather today. The



                                                               21
chief employment in the hemisphere is farming. Soil to grow the
agricultural needs of various peoples and water for crop growth
have been premium commodities throughout history and created
important migrations from Asia into Europe and from Europe
into the Western Hemisphere . Some of the people of the Diaspora
into the American hemisphere came solely for better or more
agricultural land, particularly 1700-1900 from small rocky or
semi-desert or overpopulated nations and then from Northern
Europe during the potato blight and famine. Today nations with
much cash around the world who have not balanced their
agriculture with their populations are reaching out to buy milli ons
of acres of land in order to grow agriculture in other nations,
chiefly in Africa and primarily for the water associated with the
African nations’s agricultural lands.
Let us examine results Barry Hughes’ International Futures’
model for the Western hemisphere’s next 50 years. Agricultural
predicted demand rises 67% or increases by the demand for an
additional 357.4 million metric tons of agriculture demand, going
from 532.6 million metric tons per year in 2005 to demand for
889.9 million metric tons in 2055 (whole of the Western
Hemisphere). The hemispheric agricultural production is
predicted to increase 44.4 % from 803.3 million metric tons to
1160, which is 356.7 million metric tons additional. This means a
great deal less export outside the hemisphere, which affects trade
balances. Although we will feed ourselves, the agrobusiness aspect
will diminish. Obviously increased prices for agriculture will
occur. Borlaug (1970) pointed out this production is not spread
evenly throughout the nations. North American production
increases 36% of the hemispheric output which will rise from
from 535.6 to 729.7, or and additional 194 million metric tons. The
prediction is that South America production rises 65% from 240.9
to 397.1 million metric tons, while Central America produces 70%
more which rises from 15.61 presently to 26.61 million metric tons
in 2055. These are important increases in production because this
is where much of the population expansion lies . However, the
agricultural imports also rise 5.5 times in South America, and 6.6
times in Central America while in North America imports are
predicted to stay the same which for the continent. For the
average of the total hemisphere imports of food per nation
increase three fold from 75.68 to 227 million metric tons, mostly in
Central and South America. (Note much of this import-export of
food is between Western hemisphere nations, although Asia and
Europe receive significant quantities.) Additionally, agricultural
exports are also increasing strongly for North America (growing
67% or from 130 to 218 million metric tons); for South America it
doubles (from 37.89 to 78 million metric tons); for Central
America it increases 26% (from 4.963 to 6.256 million metric
tons); and over all for the hemisphere, agricultural exports almost
double (175% or 174 million metric tons to 303.4). Underlying
these predictions is the increased yield per hectare which is
predicted to increase for the hemisphere from 3.1 tons to 4.5



                                                                  22
tons/hectare with North America increasing from 1.89 to 2.6,
South American 2.5 to 4.96 and Central America 2.7 to 3.95 tons
per hectare. Thus, there will no doubt be a large increase in
demand due to 320 million more people to feed with many citizens
attaining a higher level of demand and consumption than they
have in 2005. Although some of this demand is made up for by
increased agricultural imports, much will have to be made by
increasing the yield and spatial extent of the crops. The
interdisciplinary questions must be raised about how this will
interact with water resources, environment (such as forests ,
wetlands, and other areas), and whether people in the
industrializing nations will continue to be employed in the
agrobusiness sector.
ADD WATER STATISTICS HERE

Dennis Meado ws (2008, personal communication) has predicted to
us from the Meadows, Randers and Meadows (2001) revised
World 3 model in ―Limits to Gro wth—30 years out‖ (Meado ws et
al., 2001) that the first global crisis will likely be seen around 2025
in agriculture. In 2008 crises in foo d occurred in nations around
the earth. Indeed several governments were toppled due to food
crises. Most of these nations were in Asia and Africa , where
conditions are worse than this hemisphere.
Fisheries are an ancient method of obtaining protein within the
hemispheric cultures. It has been used hemispherically for at least
ten thousand years and has remained sustainable in the
hemisphere in most areas for much of these millennia. It is the last
hundred years of increasingly sophisticated capture methods and
intense fishing without regard to the sustainability and reality of
the fisheries sustainability needs has created the diminished
fisheries of 2008. Both for marine and fresh-water fisheries
catches have decreased in southern and eastern North America
and especially throughout the Greater Caribbean Basin. The one
piece of good news is that the east and west coasts of far South
America have been found to be the only coastal areas of presently
sustainable fishing in the entire world (Garcia, 1996) based on
FAO statistics. Ho wever, a Canadian group led by Pauly et al.
(2004) have found that artisanal and subsistence fishing are
underreported in the FAO reports from which the International
Future’s model data is taken for this report (meaning that the
FAO data would be too optimistic generally in terms of available
fish remaining). Possibly this is because the numbers are reported
by the governments who report large-scale commercial large
landings, which are much easier numbers to access than artisanal
or subsistence fishing for which frequently there are no good
records. To include smaller captures such as artisanal and
subsistence fishing is far more diverse and difficult to record.
Pauly and colleagues have begun correcting the actual records
with detailed accounting of artisanal and in some cases,


                                                                     23
subsistence, fisheries. Thus, the only product still hunted and
gathered in large scale and throughout the hemisphere (fish) may
not be as abundant in the Western Hemisphere as previously
reported by Garcia of FAO. The relative numbers may hold since
none of the rest of the world’s artisanal and subsistence fisheries
are in the numbers from FAO fisheries either. Also there are
minimal artisanal and subsistence fisheries in Uruguay,
Argentina, and Chile (highly industrialized nations), compared to
the Caribbean Islands (where large artisanal and subsistence
fisheries are found especially in high unemployment periods).
A second trend is seen in the world mariculture and aquaculture
map, where only Chile, Canada, and USA have large amounts of
cultured fish output, compared to Asia. The other hemispheric
nations have not yet begun to evaluate declining fisheries seriously
enough to promote gro wing fish. Every hemispheric nation should
be gro wing fish rather than importing fish.
A third trend in fishing occurring around the world is that of
Fishing Factory ships which enter territorial waters to capture
fish and in their capture methods take the entire food web, which
not only creates wholesale depletion, but also takes marine
mammals, and reptiles such as turtles, all of which are critical
biodiversity species and protected by international treaties.
A troubling interaction has recently occurred between food and
energy. Predictions for raising corn to provide ethanol fuel is one
solution to the energy crisis readily available to the Americas.
Brazil in particular has made strides in raising crops to be used
for ethanol. Farmers have put valuable crop land into ―energy‖
agriculture and opened processing plants. So me states in the USA
have created laws mandating 5 to 20% ethanol addition to
gasoline. Prices of both food and gasoline appear to rise as the
links between the agriculture and energy create an expanding
market during oil price increases. Other fuel-producing vegetative
species (such as Jatropha curcas and J. cuneata ) which is native to
the Caribbean Islands may help provide fuel (in island and central
American local economies where labor is very cheap) to provide
generator and small vehicle fuel.
Due to this and the growing population in the very areas of highest
biodiversity hot spots and tropical forests, it appears that
increased agriculture for the growing population will put pressure
on retaining forest and wetland areas , with a tendency to convert
even more of these areas to farmland. Other troubling interactions
between agriculture and environment are the deforestation of the
Amazonian jungle presently to create more space for grazing of
cattle and small farmers from the south of Brazil . (There appears
to be a controversy if large gro wers or indigenous peoples are
carrying out the deforestation.) The hemisphere has been
gradually denuded of forest to make space for agricultural land
for 450 years, although many of the colonists after 1780 took
advantage of the great grasslands which stretched from central


                                                                  24
Canada and Minnesota to the Rocky Mountains in North America
and down to Texas and in the Argentine Pampas . This trend
accelerated about 200 years ago, as Borlaug has pointed out, with
the steam engine bringing products more rapidly from farm to
market and then motorized vehicles with road systems, and in
some nations with expanding populations clearing for agricultural
land continues to accelerate. Agriculture has been pushed to
marginal lands where other important ecosystems such as
wetlands occur. Frequently these marginal lands require more
water or other inputs. There is a very delicate balance between
water required for agriculture and that required for the
population. Areas such as Southern California and the Central
Valley, or other dry lands such as Arizona, New Mexico, parts of
Texas, western Mexico and even in the much wetter South Florida.
On a hopeful note in North American some former agricultural
land is being reforested with tax credits from the government so
that in northeastern states of the USA there is more forest than
100 years ago (Marshall, 2008). Ho wever, this is the exception in
the hemisphere, but is a hopeful model .
Critical Problems:
How to provide sufficient nutrition for the extra 320 million
people (the size of the present USA) to be added (chiefly by
births,but also by longevity, and in migration to the hemisphere)
in the Western hemisphere since factors such as poor management
of soils, over usage of soil, decline of fisheries to the point of
collapse, pollution into and poor management and distribution of
water interact to have with the predicted food supply per capita in
50 years. The food shortages are likely to be felt in the Andes, and
northern Central America, and island nations such as Haiti,
before 50 years and such are already widespread in Asia and
Africa in 2008.
How to conserve the fisheries of the hemisphere to minimally
continue to provide protein source for local children ’s nutrition?
How to not have the fisheries beyond the territorial limits ruined
by large factory ships from non-hemispheric nations?
How to change industrialized nations’ eating habits into more
sustainable habits so that they eat lower on the food chain to
conserve agricultural space .
How to marshal the agricultural products with less waste during
harvest and distribution and created better local distribution of
staple foods to the malnourished poor.
How to not have massive investments in land and purchases or
leases of agricultural land with sufficient water by water and land
deficient other eastern hemisphere nations to the detriment of
food security of hemispheric nations.




                                                                      25
SOLUTIONS TO CRITICAL PROBLEMS:
1.) The green revolution by Norman Borlaug and colleagues needs
to be completed on the major and secondary food products of the
hemisphere through intensive research, (genetic resilience, high
yield, disease resistance, less use of commercial fertilizers, etc.), so
that the yield of the societally well-accepted food products can
increase locally. The corollary of this process of the Green
Revolution is to take these food production technological advances
freely and immediately to all of the island and mountainous
nations with poverty and malnutrition to gro w more food locally.
2.) More research on the productivity of unique South American
crop products which may be highly productive. There are many
lesser utilized native plants (e.g. many species and varieties of
potatoes, squash, fruiting trees and vines, and other plants under
cultivation, especially from Peru–where agriculture is 11,000
years old and where more than 200 species are no w eaten but not
consumed in North America), which could provide an
underutilized resource wherein research to produce high yields
could increase hemispheric agriculture for the future. These crop
plants will be suited to the climate s, pests, microbes and other
limiting variables of the hemisphere.
3.) A third solution (discussed for thirty-five years) is eating more
simply and at the plant base of the food web. Eating local
vegetables and fruits is far more productive and sustainable per
acre of land than eating meat at the top of the web. It also saves
energy, land, water and provides local jobs. There is a new
movement called ― meat without animals‖ including vegetarian
substitutes for meat which is more water and land efficient . Most
vegetables’ growing requirement require far less land , water and
total energy expenditure than do the requirements to produce
meat, (of which cattle uses the most land and require 15000 liters
of water per pound of meat whereas vegetables require about 1000
liters). Thus, the indigenous peoples who eat high content of
vegetable and fruit diets have been eating more sustainably than
the urbanized population who use more meat and dairy products
in a European style. Vegetarians have less cancer, heart disease
and diabetes. We are all capable of changing to eating many more
vegetables and less meat or fish which takes aqueous surface not
farm land surface(lo wer on the food chain). This would
immediately to the benefit of human health plus save energy of
agricultural transport, water and save forests and wetlands.
4.) Other solutions in this immediately available group are less
waste of food (at the production and consumer ends), and better
distribution of food to those in poverty. As Borlaug has said in his
Nobel Prize address, the local production of food is important
especially to those in poverty. For industrialized nations local food
production should be important as to transport costs, less need for
expensive fertilizers and nutrition.



                                                                      26
5) The increase in marine plant consumption (which species have a
full complement of minerals), and other native crop species not
widely eaten is an important solution for the future. Peoples in
East Asia no w eat many tens of pounds of marine algae per
capita/year. Seaweed has only recently increased in Western
Hemisphere diets. There is enormous oceanic space throughout the
hemisphere in which to gro w seaweed with little competition from
other important functions for this space. However, despite
enormous ocean spaces throughout the hemisphere, very little
commercial gro wth of food algae is presently occurring
throughout the hemisphere (Yarish, 2003).
6.) We need to increase fish sustainability by the following three
methods: 1.) Restoring Caribbean and North and South American
estuaries and fresh water lakes and rivers for fish nurseries as in
the island of Jamaica has begun (Thorhaug and Miller, 1982) . This
is currently found mostly throughout North America for
infrastructure and ―taking‖ of lands. It should be a major
rehabilitative program throughout the hemisphere; 2.)
Throughout the hemisphere the mariculture and aquaculture
production is very low compared to Asia or Africa. Mariculture
makes good employment, and helps local nutrition as well as being
an excellent export. Canada, USA, Chile have taken the lead with
sizeable mariculture production; others must follo w; 3.) Factory
fishing ships, which degrade the food web especially deplete a ten
thousand year old resource of great importance to the hemisphere ,
particularly from non-hemispheric nations, should be banned in
territorial waters. Some collective action to control fishing in the
greater area around the hemisphere should be attempted.
7.) Fishing rules need to emphasize the sustainability need of fish
egg laying being able to complete the breeding cycle without
danger of being captured so that increasing generations of fish can
sustain. These rules need to be communicated to artisanal
fishermen throughout the hemisphere in their native tongues.
Removal of subsidies to fisher men , especially to deep sea fishing
is important in preserving the deep sea fishing and keeping fish
prices internationally correct. Fishing quotas will be necessary
until sustainable fisheries reemerge in the Western Hemisphere.
Also consumer awareness is an important point of citizen
awareness in order to teach individuals ho w destructive the
fishing techniques were which obtained the seafood they are
eating. Perhaps a scale of awareness.


Chapter III. HEALTH AND DRINKING WATER
James Gray, MD, William Rowley, MD, E. Jackson
Allison, MD, Patrick Osewe, MD,




                                                                  27
The health of the citizens of the nations comprising the Western
Hemisphere is extremely important to individuals and their
governments. An important goal of this report to point out ways in
which individuals and governments may fulfill their desires to have
their nations populations living long and healthy lives. They wish to
live productive as well as healthy lives, so that the increase of life
expectancy in the 20 th century as well as decrease in infant and
childhood mortality has been very well received throughout the
hemisphere.
Many alternative health paths are available for the future of e ach
nation in the hemisphere. If the governments continue their present
paths, greater health can occur than at present. However, some
alternate paths suggested below could offer far better health solutions.
Clean and uncontaminated drinking water, a criti cal necessity for
healthy life, is one of the key factors, as is teaching of basic hygiene
and sanitation and providing simple health care clinics such as
maternal aid during pregnancy to impoverished peoples. Vaccination
programs have already done effective work in certain nations. Those
in extreme poverty in the hemisphere are usually without these simple
health resources at present.
The health of the geographic regions was split into a series of factors
including longevity, infant mortality, health care accessibility, and
malnourished children by the International Futures Model . The
populations of various nations have indeed large differences in health
factors presently, in the past, and the models project that differences
will continue to occur in the 50 year future, despite increases in health
throughout the hemisphere. For instance, infant mortality in North
America is projected to fall from 2005 values of 12.1 deaths /1000
births to less than 4.2 /thousand births by 2055. In this projection,
South America makes important progress from 32. deaths /1000 births
to 5.7/1000, while Central America & Caribbean will drop from an
average near 34.5 deaths/1000 births to around 14.5 deaths / thousand
births. Specific nations are far higher than the average of th eir region
(Haiti is 112 deaths/1000 births, Bolivia is even higher at 61
deaths/1000 born, Guatemala 68 deaths/1000 births in rural areas,
Honduras is 41 deaths/1000 children born).This Central American
infant mortality rate is unacceptable, but real prog ress is predicted by
2055 by cutting the infant mortality rate by more than two thirds. (See
Table x). Maternal death with births is unacceptably high in nations
associated with the highest infant mortality rates such as . Central
America is presently an average of 29.86. Haiti maternal death rates
are 6.9/1000 births, Bolivia (2.9/1000births) and Nicaragua,
Honduras, Guatemala ( all about 2.9/1000 deaths).
High birth rate appears highly correlated with high infant mortality
since North American goes from 15.8 births per million people at
present (check) to 10.2 in South America from 21.7 to 10.2 and
Central America and Caribbean from 29.8 to 12.6. The infant
malnutrition rate is predicted to fall from 15.7 to 0.1 in Central
America, which means a great deal of work and input of food needs to
occur. North and South America are 3.5 and 6.2 respectively to near 0.


                                                                         28
Longevity increases dramatically in North and South America from
73.8 and 67.3 to 82.6 and 83.6 respectively. In Central America the
rate is predicted to increase going from 66.5 to 79.6. The methods by
which these improvements in health occur are important items to be
included in any discussion of the future health of the hemisphere.
The International Future model for the hemisphere projects th e
average malnourished children will be 0.0984% of the total American
hemisphere population of children in 2055 , down substantially from
the 2005 average of 5.325%. These children are distributed now in the
poorest nations. 15.38 % of all children in Centr al America are
presently malnourished which will decline to 0. 5% in 2055.The South
American children are now 6.22 % malnourished which is projected to
drop to 0% and for North America this will drop to 0 from a present
average of 3.5%. The Caribbean is pr esently 15.38 malnourished
children, which will drop to 0.05%.


Can a better future occur for Central America and poverty areas of
South America such as Bolivia, Paraguay, and Peru and the Caribbean
such as Haiti? In many cases nations located immediately adjacent to
one another have very different statistics, such as Dominican Republic
vs. Haiti, Bolivia and Paraguay vs. Argentina, Mexico vs. Guatemala,
or Nicaragua vs. Costa Rica.
An important note is that the female rate of longevity persists until th e
end of the century as substantially higher than the male throughout
industrialized and non-industrialized nations, not only in the
hemisphere, but in the world. Is this soluble to bring the men’s
longevity upward?
The International Futures Project (Hughes, 1995) has also completed a
global health scenario (et al.2005) in which they have shown that
certain non-communicable diseases persist globally into 205 5. In men
and women, heart disease appears the largest killer after 60 years old.
Lung disease and malignant neoplasms are substantially greater in
men than women, while heart diseases are greater in women after 70
years old. Throughout the world AIDS virus kills substantially more
men than women, as do other communicable diseases. This study was
not broken out into nations or hemispheres. The AIDS/HIV is not as
severe in the Western Hemisphere as in Africa in most of the
hemisphere’s poverty-stricken nations. `
Other problems seen below are the delivery of health care, hygiene
and sanitation education to a vastly diffused population in difficultly-
accessible locations of high and relatively inaccessible mountains.
The educational curriculum is closely entwined with the delivery of
health care in some of these locations.

Resource utilization and sustainable health in the hemisphere is interesting
historically, William Collins ( 2003) has reported that in North America



                                                                               29
indigenous peoples in the East region, on average, appeared to have been
relatively healthy compared to other occupants of the Western Hemisphere,
including the European Americans, derived from the skeletal remains data for
the comparative health of populations in the hemisphere over very long
periods of time. ―Native Central Americans score at the bottom of the
distribution, on average, a few index points below African Americans. If one
looks at stature alone, rather than the composite index, African Americans
score surprising well -- higher than any other group in the sample.
Importantly, there appears to have been a decline in Native American health
status in the centuries preceding the arrival of Columbus. In the Western
Hemisphere, the transition to settled agriculture and the consequent rise of
dense, populous settlements, which until fairly recently was celebrated as the
basis for subsequent economic and social progress, appears to have been
associated with significant declines in the average human's health. Of course,
such a finding does not contradict the eventual benefits of economic
development, but it does reinforce a significant caveat to our interpretation of
the transition away from hunting and gathering ―. (Collins 2003). After
assembling a large, consistently coded dataset, a valuable contribution by
itself, the authors illustrate how the skeletal remains can shed light on the
comparative health of populations over very long periods of time. (The
backbone of History: Health and Nutrition of the Western Hemisphere.R.H.
Steckel and J. C. Rose editors. "Review of Richard H. Steckel and Jerome C.
Rose (editors), ― The Backbone of History: Health and Nutrition in the
Western Hemisphere." EH.Net Economic History Services, May 13 2003.)

The industrialized nations face different challenges than those above. The
chief difference is in changes with regard to treatment of chronic disease. For
example, about 125 million Americans have chronic diseases. Half of these
people have multiple conditions and roughly one-third have five or more
chronic conditions. Those individuals use up half of all spending on
Medicaid, two-thirds of Medicare, three-quarters of private insurance
spending, and represent 80 percent of health care visits. A patient with five or
more chronic diseases sees, on average, 13 doctors a year. Treating chronic
disease is the challenge. The health care system we have now is a nightmare.
Doctors are not reimbursed for coordination, they don't work in teams very
often, and there is no team leader. What we do now is not designed for the
problems that we are taking care of. We're headed to the practice of medicine


                                                                              30
in cooperative teams, using evidence-based decision-making where all
clinicians are on the same sheet of music. There's got to be continuous
healing relationships, with more emphasis on education and coaching. You
can't just focus on the current medical problem; you have to focus on all of
the risks. People with diabetes don't die of diabetes; they die of heart disease.
Information is going to have to flow freely among providers and with the
patient. Care will be customized to the disease, to the patient's
pharmacogenomics, and to the patient's values and needs. You can say,
"That's managed care,‖ but it's a very different managed care from what we're
practicing now. Patients must learn how to become active participants in their
care. The business side of managed care will be transformed with more focus
on eliminating, preventing, and controlling disease. ― ( Rowley, 2007)

Other technologies can be expected to make substantial progress in healing or
treatment such as genomic treatments, nanotechnology, …….




           CRITICAL ISSUES AND SOLUTIONS
           The sets of major health problems for the next 50 years include
           the dichotomy of health care systems between the rural health
           care of the poorest nations in northern Central America, the
           Andean and Amazonian south America, and specific islands with
           high poverty levels in the Caribbean ( the majority of which are
           indigenous Amerindians leading traditional lives) vs. the
           industrialized nations who have an extremely high level of health
           care, medical research, and in some cases (e.g. Canada, Cuba )
           government subsidized health care.

           We have addressed these separately:

           1.) The high level–poverty nations situation.
           The chief problems herein are in delivery of simple natal and
           maternal care, basic health care through clinics or moveable
           health units and hygiene education as well as availability of some



                                                                               31
level of health care for accidents and illnesses. The water
infrastructure is mostly absent or not functioning properly so that
water borne diseases strike an unacceptably high number of
children, making diarrhea a major killer.


2.) The health care and expected changes in health of the
    industrialized groups within the hemisphere: a.) Ability to
    alter the genetic disposition of the individual by manipulation
    of genetics and genomic investigation and therapy. This
    includes prevention, and eliminating diseases rather than
    retrospective treatment after the disease onset. b.) Growing
    organs reduplication and transplant from stem cells from
    various locations in the body. c.) Nan
    o-technologic treatment for a variety of diseases. d.) Chronic
    disease management e.) Teams of health care providers for
    patients f.)…… g.) …….

SOLUTIONS
Solutions to the poverty health care include better hygiene in
terms of washing hands and children’s hygiene, drinking water,
health care for pregnant mothers and infants, and some concept to
mothers of important food types and vitamin sources for children.
E. Jack Allison has had success in using media in Africa to take
health songs to the poor so that the message comes in an
acceptable way to the poor. This is a rapid change agent. By
setting his original health lyrics in the local languages to local
music with local bands and then publicizing them on the radio (
which is readily available throughout the mountainous areas and
in the urban centers) the messages of ― Wash your hands‖ or ―
Boil your drinking water‖ were accepted and used by the populace
in Malawi and other nations.

Other poverty health care solutions include teaching health care
staff for various levels of health (including nursing staff) from the
hemisphere’s health care schools who would teach one 4 day
weekend per month to a large group of health care or nurses. At
the end of some significant periods these students would receive
certificates and be incorporated into a ―Barefoot health care ―
system prepared to administer simple care into the rural and urban



                                                                   32
           poverty areas. It teaches children at the early levels of schooling
           about primary hygiene rules and water purification and ridding of
           contamination of water supply. Also immunization must be
           offered starting at new-born level rather than adjunct in later
           years.

           Disposition of waste education for building and placement of
           latrines and water purification and wells.

           Nutrition education is also important.


           We can take models from Mexico and Brazil who have worked to
           attain and increasing health standard, especially in the poverty
           locations.




CHAPTER IV. ENVIRONMENT.
Anitra Thorhaug, Nancy Nicholson, Philip
Marshall, David Seaborg, Jane Pratt, Noel Brown ,
Gary Nelson, Franklin McDonald, Murv Sears
Geography
The outline of the hemisphere and its territorial waters are ocean surfaces.
The oceanic extent with various nations’ territories include the Alaskan and
Arctic islands north, Hawaiian Islands west central, the American Samoan
Islands south west, Antarctic Islands of Chile and USA south, Falklands in
the Atlantic ( southeast), Greenland and its islands Northeast and Bermuda
East central . [Kaffeblubben Island the hemisphere’s northernmost point[17].to
Southern Thule islands (southernmost point)and west to the Greenland Island
of Nordstrundingen (easternmost point), while going west to Attu island
(westernmost hemispheric point)]. (There are the Hawaiian Islands, the
American and Samoan, and Guam territories). The western geography of the
terrestrial hemisphere is dominated by the mountainous American cordillera
which runs from the Andes northward on the west coast of South America [19]
up through the Central American cordillera and then the Mexican Sierra
Madres, USA Rocky Mountains, and Canadian PACIFIC Coast Ranges
running to far north Alaska and Canada.[20] On the Eastern continental coast
the Arctic Cordillera runs south along Canada’s eastern [22] Coast , into a



                                                                             33
2300 km long mountain range from Newfoundland in Canada to southeastern
USA ( Alabama) known as the Appalachian Mountains [21] . In northeast
Mexico the Sierra Gordos run from Monterrey southward to join the Central
American Cordillero in Guatemala and Chiapas. Between its coastal
mountain ranges, North America has vast flat areas. The plains of the middle
west and west central Canada and USA spread over much of the continent
with low relief[23] A Canadian Shield covers almost 5 million km² of North
America with generally flat rock.[24] Similarly, the north-east of South
America is covered by the generally flat Amazon Basin.[25] The Brazilian
Highlands on the east coast are fairly smooth but show some variations in
landform, while further south the Gran Chaco and the Argentine Pampas are
broad lowlands.[26]

Hydrology
With coastal mountains and interior plains, the Western Hemisphere has
several large river basins that drain the North and South American continents.
The largest river basin in South America is that of the Amazon, which has the
highest volume flow of any river on Earth.[27] The largest river basin in North
America is that of the Mississippi, covering the second largest watershed on
the planet.[28] The second largest watershed of South America is that of the
Paraná River, which covers about 2.5 million km².[29] Islands in the
Caribbean have very short flows of rivers into estuaries. The lake
systems of the Americas are extensive and provide enormous
reservoirs of water for ecosystems including lake fisheries and
human usage. The USA has cu m / cp/yr, whereas Canada 91,000
cu m/cp/yr and South and Central America have over 10,000cu
m/cp/yr. The great lakes dividing parts of Canada contains 2840
km3 of surface fresh water. while North America has 4702 km3..
Canada has a series of lake resources. The marine regime of the
Western Hemisphere forms a large dividing sea of this hemisphere
from other continents and can be divided into Pacific Ocean (from
the territorial waters of Alaska, Hawaii, Guam, Samoa, Galapagos,
Easter Islands and the Pacific nations from Alaska to Chile) , to
the Arctic ( Canada, USA, Greenland ), Antarctic (USA, Chile,
Argentina) and Atlantic oceans (Greenland, to Bermuda, and to
the islands of Argentina and Falklands-UK) and including the
marine regions of the Greater Caribbean Sea.



Living Biological Resources :


                                                                            34
The plant and animal life of the hemisphere is extremely diverse and a
portion of terrestrial plants & animals and the Caribbean coral reefs
are endangered (38% of the endangered plants of the hemisphere are
in Peru, which has a greater number of species than Canada and USA
combined). The general divisions of ecosystems are the Boreal (in the
Arctic and Antarctic), the temperate (found in North and South
America and mountainous areas and third, the tropical/ subtropical
zone extending generally from Texas and Florida to Southern Brazil,
the Amazon and northern Peru), and the tropical (from South Florida
to Southern Brazil in the Atlantic and Mexico to Northern Peru in the
Pacific) . The marine areas also have extremely diverse and abundant
flora and fauna and potentially have the least change from Pre -
Columbian times (with the exception of some of the lesser-populated
terrestrial mountainous areas in South America and Canada and
Alaska). The hemisphere has experienced and is predicted to have an
increasing significant loss of biodiversity which concerns biologists
greatly. Of Meyers’ (200 3) 25 world for Biodiversity hot spots, 9 are
in the Western hemisphere (The Amazon Forest basin (Tumbes-
Choco-Magdelena), the coral reefs of Belize & Honduras, Chilean
Winter Rainfall-Valdian Forests, Tropical Andes, Cerrado, Atlantic
Forests, Mesoamerican forests, Madrean pine-oak woodlands,
Caribbean Island flora, California floristic province). Most are prone
to development exploitation and loss. The hemisphere’s bays and
estuaries which have been polluted for at least 350 years and are in
fragile condition in most of the hemisphere particularly North
America and the Caribbean Basin. There are spots of worst -case
scenarios such as Haiti where overpopulation and poverty ha ve
decimated all living resources.


Critical problems and solutions
The major problem areas for the next 50 years of environmental non -
sustainability in the Western Hemisphere are the following :
1.)   Deforestation . Much of the terrestrial ecology is concerned
      with the great forest systems of the hemisphere which provide
      well over 20% of the world’s oxygen, plus produce forest
      products, habitat for many species, soil retention, and water
      balance. Deforestation can be viewed with the stewardship
      concept that some forests provide service and are important for
      the whole earth as well as for local benefit where quality of life
      degrades as do the natural plants and animals of the forest
      when forests are removed. Deforestation is highly related to
      poverty in this hemisphere since one of the key uses of the
      forest is use for cooking. (Heating is used very sparingly even
      at high, cold altitudes). Other problems are illegal logging, the
      expansion of ranching, agriculture, and human settlements , all
      of which decimated the original hemispheric forests. One
      member of our committee, Philip Marshall (Yale School of
      Forestry) has shown the highly interactive nature of preserving
      the forests, "The implications of increasing energy scarcity


                                                                     35
      and growing use of biofuels can effect the integrity and
      functionality of        agro-forest-ecosystems. Cereals-based
      biofuels obtained at the expense of food production as well as
      soil                        nutrients                         and
      soil organic matter. I fear that both these constraints on agro -
      biofuels production will shift attention to forest -based
      (cellulosic)                                            biofuels,
      both liquid (e.g. ethanol and methanol) and solid (e.g. firewood
      and pellet fuels), thereby creating massive new commercial
      pressures                          on                         the
      forest ecosystems of the Americas." This coupled with the
      poverty of the Cordillera and Andea n region demonstrates the
      highly interactive nature of preserving the environment. The
      four hurricanes striking Haiti (where 80% of the people are
      under $2/ day) in late summer 2008 are another extreme
      example of how deforestation can leave the local peoples prone
      to soil erosion, flooding, and exposed to catastrophes. Sets of
      solutions include teaching the techniques to all hemispheric
      nations and especially to the on the ground stakeholders how to
      restore mixed forests with native trees, government
      preservation of forests, planting trees for carbon sequestration,
      less use of forest products (partly through advertisement and
      incentive programs), and the alternative livelihoods from the
      forests.

2.)   Climate Change: A second problem thought to be the most critical
      by a number of our committee members was addressed by Rajendra
      Pachauri (2007 Nobel Prize on behalf of the Intergovernmental Panel
      on Climate Change), a scientist from India, "If there's no action before
      2012, that's too late. What we do in the next two to three years will
      determine our future. This is the defining moment." USA National
      Atmospheric and Space Administration's chief climatologist, James
      Hansen, et al.., said in 2008 in Science "If humanity wishes to
      preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and
      to which life on Earth is adapted, paleo-climate evidence and ongoing
      climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its
      current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm." Hansen et al. 2008 cite six
      irreversible tipping points (massive sea level rise, melt of Arctic ice,
      huge changes in rainfall patterns) that will be passed if we do not
      return to 350 ppm soon. One of his strong recommendations beyond
      his foremost recommendation of reducing carbon emissions
      (especially coal and fossil burning releases and emissions of transport
      fuel) is to increase carbon sequestration into long-lived plant material
      such as forests which could immediately and continue to increase
      carbon uptake and decrease CO2 in the atmosphere. He says if this is
      carried out massively to forests, carbon sequestration in forests could
      reduce the carbon level about 60 ppm. Importantly, he has not
      included restoration of long-lived-marine vegetation. This is



                                                                           36
      important to carry out and could double the carbon sequestration if
      included in the restoration depending on how much of this occurs (
      particularly in bays and estuaries around the world) in areas where no
      comptetion occurs for the space, it is merely degraded..

3.)   Loss of Fisheries and Marine habitat (corals, fish
      nursery habitat). The loss of fisheries problem has been
      addressed extensively by Daniel Pauly of University of British
      Columbia, who has discussed the decline in world wide and regional
      fisheries in detail. Despite the apparent statistics from FAO that
      southern South America has the best fish resources in the
      Hemisphere, the artisanal fisheries are highly under-reported
      throughout the world by the FAO statistics, including South America.
      FAO receives the statistics from the national governments, who
      appear to record the commercial catches, rarely the artisanal catches.
      The habitat loss has been addressed by Thorhaug (1983), by Berger (
      1992), by NOAA( 1985), and by UNEP( 1992, 2005). Solutions are to
      also include artisanal fishermen in total catch. To have strict laws
      prohibiting over fishing by foreign powers (of whom at least 6
      industrial powers are known to not conserve fish resources as they
      send industrial fishing boats which fish, can, and dump into the seas,
      and who are presently fishing in the regions of hemispheric territorial
      waters in the Pacific and South Atlantic); to limit bottom trawling
      decimating the habitat, blast fishing, fish poisons and other methods
      which disrupt habitat and captures species not sought (and then
      discarded). .Also, important recommendations are public education
      with enforcement about size limits, breeding seasons, and other
      important sustainable fishing techniques, (Bonaire is an excellent
      example of this.) Other solutions are education of divers, fishermen,
      boaters and others using coral reefs not to disrupt the reefs by shell
      collecting, turning over rocks, anchoring on reefs or patch reefs, or
      collecting or fishing on reefs themselves. (Bonaire, Netherland
      Antilles is a model). Restoration techniques of coastal vegetation
      from seagrasses to mangroves and corals are important parts of the
      solution. The immediate problem is to place the techniques which are
      new and not known well in the hands of the stakeholders involved,
      who are artisanal fisher folk directly through educational programs.
      This has been done in Jamaica (Thorhaug et al. 1985), is being
      attempted in Haiti and Asia (Thorhaug and Cruz, 1987) and in the
      Torre Straights Australia through the children’s educations)(
      McKenzie, Mellors, and Cole, 2004). It can be done in the
      hemisphere. Global warming solutions are the curtailing of fossil
      fuels into the atmosphere and sequestration of carbon dioxide into the
      forests and long-lived marine species through restoration. Much of the
      fossil fuel release is in the Asian continent, although the USA,


                                                                          37
       Canada, Brazil and Mexico, Argentina, Chile, and others in the
       hemisphere need to convert to non-release of fossil fuel very rapidly.


4.)Water pollution and fresh water retention . The Western
hemisphere has a large percent of the earth’s fresh water for 13% of
the earth’s people yet much of it is polluted where large numbers of
people live, especially in the cordillera regions, so that the water
carries diseases and other contaminants. The problem is release of a
variety of substances from untreated sewerage to industrial and urban
wastes directly into drinking water sources. This is extremely
prevalent throughout the hemisphere. Obviously, the sewerage and
industrial output release are a failure of government since most
nations have adopted rules from United Nations Envir onment sources,
but the rules are not enforced for large powerful industries. Indirect
pollutant into water, such as fertilizers, oil from streets, and lead from
batteries, etc. is important. The technical assistance to local
governments to regulate and have adequate, functioning waste
facilities operating on major drinking water sources is a high priority.
There is also the decreasing water with glacial melt in glacial -fed
agriculture which no one appears to be concerned with, but will be a
problem shortly.
5.) Loss of biodiversity. Norman Meyer’s much quoted ―hot
spots‖ of loss of biodiversity shows 9 of the world’s 25 in the Western
hemisphere. Peru and the eastern Andes, Central South America’s
Amazon basin, coral reefs of the western Caribbean, Chilean Winter
Rainfall-Valdian Forests, Tropical Andes, Cerrado, Brazilian Atlantic
Forests, Mesoamerican forests, Madrean pine-oak woodlands,
Caribbean Island flora, California floristic province are Meyer’s
hotspots in the western hemisphere. However, ther e are many more
which deserve preserving or conserving.
The solutions for retention of biodiversity are 1.) to conserve the
major forests, wetlands, coral reefs, and boreal regions; 2.) to
particularly help those nations with massive amounts of biodiversit y
and endangered species in the hemisphere so that the economic
pressures to ―develop‖ there will not overcome their value to the
world; 3.) Poverty alleviation in these ―hot spots‖ is greatly important
as are techniques of reforestation and restoration o f other habitat
types; 4.) to restore habitat from forests through wetlands, and
seagrasses, to coral reefs so that endangered species do not lack
habitat; 5.) to teach alternative livelihoods using forest products so
that maintaining the forests will be important to local stakeholders.




CHAPTER V. Energy Issues and Solutions




                                                                          38
Anibal Martinez, Hugo Tobar, George Mitchell (of advice), and
Anitra Thorhaug (of advice for environmental aspects)
 A great deal of present Western hemispheric energy resources in
the industrialized nations and the industrialized urban portion of
the newly industrializing nations (both in the last hundred years
and presently) derives from carbon-sourced fuels (gas, coal, oil
shale, and petroleum). Additionally, there is a present mixture of
wood, hydro, and solar energy widely used in the hemisphere with
some regional use of geothermal and nuclear. Fortunately, the
Western Hemisphere additionally possesses high levels of
renewable energy sources throughout (from north to south
including the Caribbean and Pacific islands) including abundant
hydro, wind, solar, ocean, geo and biofuel potential energy
sources.
Fossil petroleum fuels are presently chiefly located throughout
North America and the Greater Caribbean Basin nations
(Venezuela, Mexico, Columbia, and Ecuador) and eastern South
America (see fossil reserve map of S. America, appendix 4). Oil
shale is found predominantly in the Rocky Mountains northward;
gas is found throughout the southern in agricultural areas with
various crops from sugar cane to corn and is most advanced
production in Brazil.
We have four sources of information about energy futures in the
USA and Greater Caribbean basin and eastern and middle South
America, with Peru and Bolivia having resources. Wood and peat
form the chief fuel for many near the poverty level, which is much
more than three hundred and fifty million people. This
deforestation activity has an environmental and soil-water effect
so that over the past 500 years (along with clearing of forests for
agriculture, ranching, and urban and industrial development)
wood energy needs have created and continue to create massive
deforestation of the hemisphere. Wood is presently used chiefly in
the hemisphere’s mountainous region as is geothermal. Wood is
also presently used in pockets of poverty in coastal plains near
mountains and in the Amazon Basin. Hydro energy is found in the
mountains and where large rivers run. Atomic energy is found in
the highly industrialized nations of North and South America.
Ocean energy is located in most oceanic nations. Solar is frequent
in the southern USA, all the tropics, and large areas of South
America. Biofuel potentials are found throughout the hemisphere
hemisphere. One is from the International Futures’ model
numbers. A second source is from the US Department of Energy
(which has broken do wn energy from a source-by-source basis and
then projected them until 2030 including internationally, which
includes more than the Western hemis phere). Thirdly, we have an
excellent report prepared for the United Nations by Professor
Anibal Martinez of Venezuela. Fourthly, Professor Hugo Tobar
has organized several report on the Future of Petroleum in
Ecuador and neighboring nations.



                                                                 39
We have used belo w three projections: 1.) International Futures
until 2055; 2.) US Depart of Energy International models to 2030;
3.) Anibal Martinez for Venezuela.
The model from International Futures gives us the follo wing
energy information:
The model from US Dept Energy shows the amount of energy
needed by the non-OECD nations is increasing by over 90% in the
30-year period from 2005 forward, while the varied energy
sources supply 57%, leaving a gap between need for consumption
and actual supply available. This will create a highly critical
problem. The presently industrialized nations (Brazil, Argentina,
Chile, Columbia, Costa Rica, Mexico, Canada, USA, Venezuela,
Puerto Rico, and certain other island nations with Peru on the
border) will be decreasing their fossil energy consumption after
intensely developing whatever fuel reserves they have and can
buy, while much of the rest of the world also will be running out of
petroleum reserves. (Note that during the next 30 years North
America’s energy consumption continues to be high per capita
compared to the majority of nations in the Hemisphere.) Although
when energy consumption from each of these nations is compared
per capita, the hemispheric nations fall into industrialized and
industrializing. The future fossil fuel resources available in North
America have increased in energy resources by 120 billion barrels
due to Canada’s recently discovered fields. Intense exploratory
efforts at locating further energy resources are underway in 2009 -
11 in both North and South America and in the Caribbean.
However, past estimates for future Mexican production have
recently been revised downward as has its resource , although
exploratory research in the south central Gulf of Mexico is
ongoing with modern technology. South American estimates, of
proven resources, includes Venezuela ( 80 billion barrels oil and
100 million cubic meters of proven gas reserves), Brazil [12.2
billion barrels of proven oil reserves (Oil and Gas Journal ,2008)
and large potential deep natural gas 0.2 trillion cu ft], Argentina
[2.6 billion barrels of proven oil reserves , and had 15.8 trillion
cubic feet (Tcf) of proven natural gas reserves (OGJ, January
2008)], Colombia has substantial gas (in the north) and oil
reserves (1.5 billion barrel of crude), and Ecuador [4.5 billion
barrels (OGJ,2008), and had 345 billion cubic feet natural gas
(OGJ, January 2006)]. Bolivia (55 trillion cuft), Peru and Trinidad
and Tobago have substantial gas reserves in the neighborhood of
Brazil’s. (See figure belo w and figure of gas and oil fields in South
America by C. Schenk et al 1996 in Appendix ) 4.) Additionally,
there is a very large hydro resource occurring throughout the
Andes including from southern Colombia (relying heavily on
hydro at present with more under construction), Ecuador (where
17% comes from hydro and 3% from natural gas), Peru, Bolivia,
Chile, and Argentina where about half of its energy comes from
hydro and a substantial amount from natural gas. Hydro -power is
projected to increase in South American to over 33% of total



                                                                    40
utilization in the next 50 years. Central America also has a vast
renewable hydro-energy resource in the Cordillera so that
increased utilization of hydro in Central America is predicted
strongly in the next 50 year period. Nuclear is expected to
increase in the industrializing nations in the hemisphere.
Presently, USA, Argentina, Brazil, Canada, and Mexico utilize
nuclear energy resources moderately and would be expected to
strongly increase their present nuclear capacity along with wind (
many nations), hydro, and possibly geothermal in those nations
with this resource.
It should be noted that private sector and government efforts in
the hemisphere to switch from a carbon-based fuel source to cost-
and effective wind, solar, biofuels, ocean energy, and a more
environmentally-acceptable hydro- and other sources are intensely
underway. Brazil, a world leader in biofuels, (Brazil produced
390,000 bbl/d of ethanol in 2007, up from 306,000 in 2006) is
training other neighboring nations in this technology and
intensively doing research for cost efficiency . Also coal, of
abundance and used previously throughout the hemisphere, is
undergoing intense research in terms of environmental releases
into the atmosphere in the oxidation phase. If this occurs there is
abundant coal throughout the hemisphere, especially in northern
South America and Canada. Shale which contains both gas and oil
is found in large abundance and can be processed to have various
levels of emissions.
Critical problems and solutions
The critical hemispheric question posed is where shall we obtain
the energy capacity to fulfill the increasing demand for the next
30-50 years during the transition from oil to renewable sources of
energy?
Our partial answer is gas for the hemisphere, which is found in
abundance in many hemispheric locations , while more is being
discovered yearly while further intensive exploration is underway.
This gas resource as an intermediate fuel solution obviously
occurring for po wer generation and industry and in liquefied form
for transport in North America and a as a second sets of solutions
for the Caribbean, South and Central American nations other
than those with fossil resources is a combination of wind and
hydro-power with perhaps some geo thermal in the mountainous
areas with the resources. For example, Argentina has found
sharing a hydro grid with Paraguay plus nuclear and gas with
future gas cars as their solution. Hemispheric nations might
consider cooperatively sharing po wer grids when economically
feasible. Bolivia might create revenue by sharing hydro -grids with
Paraguay, or Argentina. Presently, Argentina and Paraguay share
and plans are underway for sharing of po wer via the Yacyreta
hydroelectric dam, with 3,500 megawatts (MW) of ins talled
capacity (the largest power plant in Argentina). Argentina and co -
owner Paraguay share the electricity generated from Yacyreta


                                                                 41
evenly, with almost all of Paraguay's share exported to Argentina.
The 1,890-MW Salto Grande is another bi-national project, o wned
by the governments of Argentina and Uruguay; in May 2006,
Uruguay and Argentina launched a study on a proposed new
hydroelectric facility near Salto Grande that would have an
installed capacity of 265 MW. Colombia has plans underway for a
massive hydro facility in the mountainous south.
The second critical problem for the nations with large numbers of
citizens no w in poverty (of $1 to 2 per day) is with what energy do
they supplant the wood and charcoal resources for cooking and
heating? They must have energy which is almost free, sustainable,
and available in their area. The problems are getting them to
adopt the new energy source, accessibility of new energy and its
usability with almost no infrastructure or money to do so . Very
cheap information is also a component for solar, wind or hydro. 3 -
Tier is remapping the world’s energy sources and will make
available to communities in developing nations renewable energy
sources available to them. They will make this kno wn to central
and local governments. There are various answers to the poverty-
energy problem starting with solar cookers to forest restoration
with varied indigenous plant species. Vegetative fuels can be are
planted and harvested specifically for local fuel. A great deal of
work is required dealing directly with the indigenous people and
their local governments to make this viable. 3 -Tier says ―Energy
futures are highly interactive with other issues: governance,
economics, population, poverty alleviation, social issues,
environment, international relations with non-hemispheric energy
producing nations (Middle East, Asia, Africa), and hemispheric
security. ― For instance, historically, wood provided the bulk of
cooking and heating fuel for the entire indigenous and early
colonial hemisphere in pre-fossil era and until the 20 th century in
many presently industrialized areas. Its continued use no w (which
now decimates critical forests) occurs because these peoples do not
have alternative fuel sources for cooking and the forests are
thought of as ―global commons‖ by them. A second interactive
example is the need to continue activities to train for
environmental preparedness for accidents in the shipping routes
for the Caribbean, North, Central and South American petroleum
shipping and production facilities which emergency response
activity is important to the Greater Caribbean’s environmental
sustainability. The environmental planning for its future energy
extraction in the arctic and other areas of North America is
presently done with large quantities of environmental input and
care. The present fossil fuel production of the hemisphere no
longer includes massive accidents as previously experienced in
Venezuela in Lake Maracaibo, in Yucatan, and on Alaska’s and
California’s coasts as well as in the Ecuadorian jungle. Most sites
in the hemisphere are prepared with cleanup procedures to
immediately deal with small and intermediate spills and petroleum
and gas workers have training to do clean -up. International clean
up groups such as Clean Caribbean funded from the hemispheric



                                                                  42
gas and oil companies maintain these clean-up facilities and
equipment which can be transported to anywhere in the
hemisphere within hours to overcome environmental degradation.
National governments have trained the ir clean-up regulators
about best practices. Sharing of the latest clean -up technology
among nations in the hemisphere is regularly carried out.
This energy review relates a critical set of realities for the
industrialized and urbanized portion of the hem isphere. Energy
sits at the nexus of a knot of interrelated problems. The large
group of citizens in poverty, unless allowed very cheap fuel, will
continue to deforest the hemisphere to the detriment of many
other environmental values by such as decreasing oxygen
production of these forests and lo wering carbon dioxide
sequestration (affecting climate change), allowing soil erosion
where forests have been removed ( Haiti’s last 4 hurricanes had
massive slumping of soil from their mountains) , lessening the
drinking water quality for health, and lessening the forests for
human and animal habitat.
During the next fifty years, as many of the potential South and
North American renewable sources come on line and unless
further energy supplies are found (as new fie lds of fossil fuel
reserves which were very recently found in Canada), this time is
likely to be a period of destabilization of the industrialized areas
due to the fossil energy sources running out and the renewable
energy resources only slo wly technically coming on line and/or
becoming cost-effectively feasible. The period is most likely to be
one of pressure on fossil energy resources, infrastructure and
refining and societal pressure due to need for cheap energy on
economics, governments, industry, environment, and commerce
(especially transportation). Large pressures on individuals in
terms of life style choices (such as cost and fuel availability to
drive to work and thus ho w far from work, schools and shopping
to live) will occur throughout the industr ialized portions of the
hemispheric nations.
Second, increased use of the energy sources of gas, hydro -,
geothermal, plus nuclear energy sources in the intermediate future
(10-30 yr) as the fossil fuels run low is very likely to be seen
(especially in South and Central America) especially where there
are large opportunities in the western Andes and the back of the
eastern Andes feeding into the Amazon for utilization of hydro -
energy sources where there is work on hydro installations well
underway.
Third, the hemisphere is very fortunate that many nations
continue have substantial sources of fossil (especially gas reserves
in South America), hydro, nuclear, geothermal, and other
renewable energy (which may come into commercial feasibility in
the second half of the century). Remarkable is the fact all
hemispheric nations except Bolivia and Paraguay have seacoasts
for ocean energy with excellent current and wave sources.


                                                                       43
(Negotiations of Bolivia with Peru for a small coastal area may
solve Bolivia’s problems, while Paraguay may come to an
accommodation with Argentina its present energy partner about
coastal space.) Even the smallest nations in the Caribbean and
Pacific have renewable resources in abundance such as solar ,
wind , hyrdo and current so that switching to renewable energy as
rapidly as feasible is very important futures activities for energy
infrastructure throughout the hemisphere.
―Countries, especially developing countries. where energy needs are
increasing most rapidly, are not investing in ren ewable energy
projects because information about the value of the potential
renewable energy resource is unknown or poorly defined .3 TIER’s
―Remapping the World‖ initiative will provide the critical information
that has been missing to make renewable energ y a viable choice:
information regarding the availability and value of renewable
resources. For the first time, communities in developing countries that
lack access to power will have the information to decide how
renewable energy can power their communiti es.‖




Global Geothermal Resource reserves Geothermex (1973)




Chapter VI. LEGAL FRAMEWORK
Roberta W. Gibbs, Stanley Cohen, Francesco
Stipo, Noel Brown, Pierre Armand, Thomas
Clingen
Most of the Latin American like the USA nations have Constitutional
Governments --constitutional presidential republics. Thi s is in
contrast to Europe, which has mostly Parliamentary governments or
Constitutional Monarchies, as in the case of Canada. The Napoleonic
Law is a Code of Civil Law not constitutional law. It is the
implementation of the law that differs from country t o country, due to
many factors, like corruption, or poverty or stability of the
government. The history of the revolutions to separate themselves
from the colonial powers from 1776 to the 20 th century included a
sharing of information about the structure o f constitutions among the
many nations. Simon Bolivar and San Martin in South America based
the new governments after the Revolutions in 1810 onward on the
same principles and structure as did the constitutional convention in
the United States. Most constitutions in the hemisphere began from a
basis of an English or Spanish legal system, although there were
French and Dutch additionally. Individual nations have various



                                                                     44
constitutions, legislatures and judiciaries which consider the effects of
the law and law enforcement on the hemispheric national societies.
There are many issues that are interconnected, so that the legal system
itself may not be as important as the governance of the social and
commercial conditions, and of enforcing the existing laws.
The six most important problems to be solved as we look at the
judiciaries, the legislatures, the enforcement of laws: 1.) How can the
legal systems, the specific laws, or the enforcement of existing laws
interface with the social and economic spheres in such a way so as to
create sustainable social and economic environments for the citizens
of the hemisphere within the timeframes of rapid change of
economies, resources, population, social , security, and health factors
and other problems such as international systems ?
2.) Why is the governance in some nations with similar populations
and resources better than others ? Contrasts are found in Haiti vs.
Jamaica, Haiti vs. Dominican Republic, Costa Rica vs. Nicaragua,
Costa Rica vs. Guatemala, and Paraguay vs. Peru.
3.) There are the political rivalries that exist, for example between the
northern Bloc (North America and parts of Central America), joined
together by NAFTA and the Southern Bloc which centers around
Brazil and Venezuela and participates in MERCO SUR. Will these
separate blocks impede hemispheric sustainability?

   4. ) One of the problems of non -sustainability is the discrepancies
which extreme poverty and the simultaneous lack of education and
access to many factors makes in the preparedness of some nations’
citizens to follow events and government actions and then to vote on
government’s decisions which effect their own resources and their
nations well-being.
 5.) Another set of questions arises about influencing the legislation of
the individual nations which can occur through the transnational
treaties and agreements, for example through free trade zones, which
can be used to achieve better social and economic conditions for the
citizens of the participating nations. NAFTA as an example has been
considered beneficial for all the participants (although not everyone
would agree). In terms of jobs and GDP an argument can be made that
Canada, USA and Mexico have benefited from NAFTA. This was not
true of the MERCOSUR, the Mercado, Commun del Sur,
among Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay, because instead of
integrating their economies, each attempted to politically expand their
spheres of influence. One way to influence the laws and the
enforcement of laws in the member nations is through setting
standards through these international treaties The Americas are
divided into roughly five areas each embracing one or more free trade
agreements: 1. NAFTA, which includes Mexico, Canada and the
United States. 2. CAFTA, which includes Costa Rica, El Salvador,
Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, United States, and more recently
the Dominican Republic DR-CAFTA. 3. CARICOM, which includes


                                                                          45
the Caribbean community. 4. MERCOSUR, which includes Argentina,
Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. and 5 . The ANDEAN Community,
which includes Columbia, Peru, Bolivia and Ecuador. Venezuela and
Cuba belong to no free trade group and Chili has a bilateral agreement
with the United States.
6.) A third set of non-sustainable problems was in election laws have
been legislated and are being enforced in various nations that require
outside observers to oversee the integrity and hence the validity of the
elections. The efficacy of participatory democracy has in this way
been increased. It is suggested that this ov ersight could occur more
evenly in the future. The United Nations or neutral bodies of election
oversight, implements whatever decree or process requires elections
to be supervised.

 .

How was it that in the United States, Canada, Jamaica, and a series of
others were able to pass so many laws that benefit the citizens as a
whole, and not just a small ruling clique, such as in so many nations,
where a small group of individuals holds both
the economic and political power? (Civil Rights legislation ,
Social Security, health care and other laws that benefit citizens ). Is it
due to Legislative bodies having more power relative to the
Executive ? Is this because an active involved citizenry demanded
laws that benefit the whole of society, not just a subsection of the
elite? In the case of the USA, the New Deal legislations of the '30s
and again in the case of the Civil Rights legislations of the '60s, were
promoted by a strong executive branch. What safeguards need to be
imposed to prevent the Execu tive, or Members of the Congress, from
functioning for their own benefit and those who belong to wealthy and
powerful cartels of economic interests. What remedies are there when
such a conflict of interest does arise? Haiti assumed the French model
of having an independently elected President which has been
superseded by the imposition of the English Parliamentary system
where the Prime Minister is not independently elected but is simply
appointed depending on which Party has the majority in Parliament. I n
Haiti after the 1987 Constitution, the two systems were combined so
that the President appoints the Prime Minister, subject to a vote of
confidence from the two Houses. But in Haiti this is not working and
recently the President had to fire the entire C ongress because it would
not accept the Prime Minister that the President had appointed. In the
United States we have a tripartite system where the power is balanced
and the Branches can oppose each other.

In Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica,Jamaica, and Argentina democracy seems
to be working better than in for instance Venezuela and Bolivia. One
problem is that foreign patents are not recognized as this discourages
corporations from other nations from doing business there.
Enforcement of international treati es could be a solution herein.



                                                                        46
Since the structures in all these countries are similar (they all have
tripartite governments and general elections) it is not the structure that
needs to change, but the way the structure is operating which needs to
be changed or the method by which the law is enforced. Is it not only
be a matter of enforcing the laws that exist, but passing laws that give
people economic support or civil rights, for example? How is it that,
if the government is corrupted (that is, if the government functions for
the benefit of the powerful economic interests which govern for their
own good, and not for the good of the whole of society ) good laws be
passed in the first place? Brazil, for example has some good laws: a
social security program and a universal health law that insures free
medical care. The problem appears not to be lack of good laws. The
problem is that often the laws that are in place are not enforced or
applied for the best interests of the majority of citizens. Often this is
due to budgetary problems. Money is not appropriated or allocated for
necessary programs because of shortage of funds.

In the history of some Latin American countries one sees struggling
democracies followed by dictatorships, occa sionally with repeated
military juntas all of which obliterates the original democracy. Many
of Latin America’s constitutions are very recent. Is there a difference
due to the facts that originally these nations were colonies, exploited
in a mercantile system in which a foreign landed aristocracy ran the
country for its own benefit with little regard for the citizens or other
people living under its legal systems as a whole, whereas, in some
parts of United States and Canada, and some of the Caribbean Islan ds,
a history of self determining groups of citizen colonizing, not with the
intent of exploiting, but with the intent of building communities,
homes, farms, and finally a nation where they could live as free and
independent people with some colonizing power, overthrown fairly
early (1775-6) and before that lightly administered in the frontiers ?
(Groups question :Is one solution to prevent abuse of power increased
globalization, where in return for relinquishing some absolute
sovereignty, the nation receives economic benefits that improve its
economies and allow the middle class and the poor to better
themselves? Moreover, there then exists a superstructure of
international law to balance absolute power of national leaders. In
other words, in order for a democracy to work, there has to exist a
critical mass of people who are as concerned, or more concerned for
the good of the whole as they are for their own good, so that they are
capable of passing and enforcing laws in a dispassionate way for the
benefit of the whole society not just to aggrandize their own power
and wealth.)

   Perhaps the concept of sustainability of wholeness and health in
which the proper end of government is to provide the regulations that
creates the balances that a functioning flourishing society and
economy and political system must have. This in turn creates healthy
happy people who in turn create a healthy happy society. The bottom
line is the individual A method to break the cycle of non -sustainable
power that results in imba lances of economic and social opportunity is
for these countries to be open to international organizations,


                                                                        47
international law and international agreements. Then they will be
forced to enforce these agreements, otherwise they will lose the
economic benefits of them. The economic tool is the best to convince
the politicians of these countries to abide by laws that lead to the
common good.)

In some nations there is the belief that a citizen can achieve economic
independence, even if through crime. In many other countries there is
no economic opportunity. This leaves the country open to being taken
over by the military or whomever has economic power. Politics in
some ways can be seen as the struggle over who is going to have the
economic opportunity. And yet there is a circularity because the laws
that are legislated and enforced, or not, regulate the ways in which
wealth can be accumulated, or not.)

Is the problem of power because there is fundamentally not
enough resources to support the population, or be cause the
resources are not being allocated properly?
   (What population levels can be sustainably supported through
utilization of sustainable resources indefinitely into the future is a
question that needs to be addressed. Historically nature resto res
overpopulated areas to balance through famines, wars and disease. But
can we not discover a way to balance our populations and resources in
benign, creative ways in which human populations can flourish in
balance with natural ecologies, without suffering these traumatic
dislocations in both the human and environmental spheres? Is this not
part of the answer to the question of how to achieve a healthy society
and healthy individuals? ) should this be deleted.

The economy and the law. The interface between the economic and
legal spheres of influence in a society is complex and crucially
important. Arguably the middle class is created, in the face of
economic forces that tend to concentrate wealth, through the
imposition of the graduated income tax. This was the experience of
the United States during the late 1920's and 1930's .There became a
polarization of wealth and poverty in the USA.
   In order for an economy, and therefore a society based on that
economy, to flourish, there must be a broad circulation of purchasing
power through out an expanded middle class. This enables people to
buy the goods and services that comprise the economy, and hence
allows the demand to exist for goods a nd services, which is answered
through the creation of businesses in a free entrepreneurial society.
Without this demand, businesses will fail, which is part of
what happened during the 30's. The graduated income tax is of course
a law that has widespread economic effects in a society.
   People who create value in a society must be amply rewarded
proportionately to the value they create and yet in order for the whole
to flourish there must be broad distribution of purchasing power in the
market. In effect the graduated income tax maintains the necessary
balance in a society, enabling the middle class to form and then to
function. Democracy is founded on a well educated, well -informed,



                                                                     48
energetic and creative middle class. This is what the laws in
democratic societies endeavor to bring about. Likewise public schools
are instituted by law and attendance mandated by law. The effective
public education system is a prerequisite for the existence
of an enlightened, educated, informed, skilled population that is
essential in allowing a democracy to function as well as indispensable
in creating not only the workforce that makes and economy
successful, but also in encouraging the innovation and insight that
allows the creation of the technologi es that form the foundation of any
economy.
   Patent law and a viable and enforceable system of intellectual
property rights allows the protection of intellectual property rights so
necessary to businesses. A body of business and corporate laws, for
example, the Uniform Commercial Codes set out the fair and just
merchants with one another. Law, of course, forms the foundation of
every Constitutional Democracy on the earth today.A nation's
constitution sets out the natural rights inherent in the fact of being a
human being in legal terms, so as to guarantee that those natural rights
be accorded fundamental status as the legal rights of citizenship. The
concept of the natural rights of human beings traces back through the
European Enlightenment to Ancient Athenian thought. It is a concept
that has not always been honored and yet it is arguably the foundation
of..... and, as human consciousness evolves it has become the
foundation of the modern world.
  It has been observed throughout history that great polarization of
wealth and poverty is not a sustainable situation, because as the social
conditions deteriorate from below, the structures on which the power
base is founded crumble, leading to chaos and revolution, which
eventually topples those who are causing the oppression.
Was it that the indigenous tribes saw the Spanish as stopping the
bloodshed between various tribes and as long as they were not
taken into slavery by the Spanish, they tolerated this whole
arrangement because of the peace, the Spanish brought to the
areas and possibly the higher technology which increased
agricultural technology and opportunity for food and protection
from famine? Why with a few Spanish with limited arms did the
whole of the indigenous people not revolt and kill all Spanish as
they did in the beginning in Jamestown and other colonies in the
states, Canada, and in Haiti?
Second, why did no kings ( exept the Portuguese in exile) come to
the western hemisphere when there were many rich resources to
be obtained here? Were they so afraid to leave their seats of
power? Did they not like or value what was in the hemisphere
even the gold, silver and jewels?
It is imperative to discover how to structure a society and how to inspire a
people to govern themselves in such a way that broad distribution of
purchasing power, broad access to education, and the universal right to start
one's own business and to achieve a fair and functioning business community


                                                                           49
interfaces with, and creates, the good of the whole society (Roberta Welsh).

The abatement of borders, for example through free trade agreements like
NAFTA, results in availability of resources to everyone (Stanley Cohen).

Many critics of NAFTA hold that it only benefits the wealthy and powerful
international conglomerates and global corporations by allowing them to
enter a country and take the resources, while leaving workers and the
environment worse off than before. There is also a growing feeling in the
United States that NAFTA has shifted jobs abroad, opened its borders to an
unstoppable flood of illegal aliens and illegal substances, and decreased
general economic well-being of the middle class. To limit the power of large
conglomerates and protect the interest of small businesses and individuals,
free trade agreements need to be integrated by labor laws and anti-trust
regulations. The compression of the power of the corporation is derived from
a balance between the country's sovereignty and globalization. What prevents
the foreign or global corporation from becoming the sovereign power in the
country is the local corporation that lobbies for laws that stop the
international corporation from taking over. There should be a balance
between the sovereignty of a country and the political
power of international corporations (Francesco Stipo).

It would be beneficial to structure some kind of global partnership
arrangement, such that global partnerships could enable investment capital to
be closely linked with projects and policies that benefit the whole society,
and funds are not siphoned off to corruption rather than benefiting citizens in
need. Sustainable development should be a top priority for the Hemisphere
and the creation of legal and governmental structures in which sustainable
development can occur. A top priority is the prevention of corruption and
exploitation by local or international organized criminal syndicates,
government, elected officials, local legitimate power bases, or by
international corporations or external governments. (Pierre Armand).

Many people believe that some multinational corporations are not only
exploiting workers and the environment in impoverished nations around the
world, but are also exploiting workers and the environment in the United
States. Free trade agreements should be integrated by laws that require
corporations and international and external national governments to act in
socially responsible ways to avoid a modern form of economic colonialism.
The passage and enforcement of good laws is at the very crux of, and forms
the ultimate foundation that makes a healthy viable flourishing society
possible. Free enterprise, regulated capitalism and socially responsible
democracy go hand in hand. Many corporations want fair regulations to be
fairly enforced, so that those corporations who pollute and exploit do not
acquire thereby an unfair competitive advantage over the corporations who



                                                                               50
want ensure a clean environment and good working conditions. Free
enterprise, to initiate and to run , to own one's own business, and to own
one’s own property is an important part of what it means to live in a
democracy. If the wealth of the nation has tended to concentrate in relatively
few centers ,.what is to keep these enormous wealth centers from using the
wealth to put their own candidates into office, to buy off regulators, to lobby
for laws that increase their own power and wealth, but are not necessarily in
the best interests of the country or the society as a whole? (Roberta Welch).


Often corporations or national governments external to the hemisphere agree
to undertake social projects such as training workers, building schools and
houses, providing medical care and then some time later after they have
received what they wished in terms of commerce, they move so the benefits
collapse. If this happens, there has been no self-sustaining, long term benefit
to that society. (Stanley Cohen).

There are one hundred and ninety-two sovereign countries in the world today
and each one has their own government so that the local governments will
enact laws that protect the local economies from the power of the largest
global corporations. For example, United States is open to the world and yet
the local corporations provide a balance, and the government protects
local corporations and businesses. There is a balance between law and reality.
Opening up a society to international agreements will bring about the changes
in laws and law enforcement at the national level in a way that will be
beneficial to the society and the economy as a whole.
Globalization has to be regulated in a way such that the international
corporations do not abuse their power. This is why international laws and free
trade agreements must have provisions that protect the corporation on the one
side and also protect the interests of the weakest economic individuals on the
other (Francesco Stipo).

The issue is how this international cooperation should be structured. A
framework should be structured in which the various nations of the
hemisphere can evolve.( Pierre Armand)

The United States could have become a multitude of different nations, but
instead they developed a federal system, an enormous free trade group in
effect, with a central government a common Constitution providing for
common defense and common laws. The multiple levels of
government, local, state and federal provide a further balance of power so
that each helps to prevent the other from becoming corrupted. In a similar
sense, some sort of adoption of mutual uniform set of commercial laws could
be applied to the American Hemisphere (Stan Cohen).




                                                                             51
All the countries of the Americas should sit down and conceive of
some forms of partnership and some structure that would control the flow of
money so that it does not go into the pockets of politicians, corrupt
government officials, their backers, or criminal syndicates. All countries must
cooperate to stop giant criminal cartels. A cashless society might be one way
of controlling criminal activities. Perhaps international agreements and
legislations that would prohibit the purchase of certain goods and acts by
cash or in any other way, so that it would be impossible to purchase or to pay
for these illegal acts and substances with cash or in any other way (Pierre
Armand).However a cashless society could contain the risk of turning into a
highly controlled, big brother type of society (Stan Cohen).
The underlying problem is that there is a market for all illegal items
(Roberta).Huge grants of money from United States to Colombia have helped
to transform that society and economy from being dependent on the drug
trade to becoming viable in many other areas of economic endeavor (Stan).




CRITICAL PROBLEMS
A summary of the most important few problems in the
legal issues of the future of the Americas for example:
1. Constitutional law is for the most part in place now in most of the
nations of the Americas.
2. Passage of socially beneficial laws has been achieved in many nations but
must be guarded against the usurpation by special interest groups acting to
aggrandize their own wealth and power at the expense of social well being.
3. Enforcement of socially beneficial laws is the problem. This is a
governance problem. The good laws that exist must be enforced and funded.
That will require both political pressure from the citizens in each nation, and
pressure from the international community.
4. The role of international laws and treaties and free trade agreements in
bringing about good social and economic conditions in a society should be
expanded.
5. Regulation of global corporations is essential.
6. The nations of the Americas might consider together, creating a structure
in which the more developed nations, enters into a partnership with the
developing nations along the lines of a Marshall Plan for the Americas, in
which the investment of funds is closely monitored and in which a legal
framework is instituted in the context of which the developing nations can
evolve.




                                                                              52
7. Criminal syndicates and international criminal activities are an enormous
problem particularly with respect to the illicit trafficking of armaments,
persons and illegal substances. These organizations have so much power and
wealth that they are able in some cases to corrupt not only the enforcement
but also the governments of nations. This should be a top hemispheric
priority in terms of laws and enforcement and of creative solutions such as
we have seen in Columbia.


SOLUTIONS
1.) A primary focus of the Legal Aspects Subcommittee is the
establishment of a Fair Trade Community of the Americas to which we
envision eventually all the nations of North and South America will
belong.
   The Fair Trade Community would establish three levels of
membership based on the degree of democratization, transparency, and
functionality of potential member nations. As nations meet these
standards they will be admitted and given the advantages that such
membership confers. The founding members are envisioned to be Brazil,
Mexico, Canada, the United States, Chile, Argentina and Costa Rica,
provided that these nations enforce an internal standard of democracy
and integrity.
   The Fair Trade Agreement would first and foremost be fair to all
parties, and unlike the Free Trade Agreements will not give undue
economic and political advantages to the international corporations, but
will rather require that worker protection and worker rights be in place,
that environmental integrity be protected, that sustainable technologies,
businesses and practices be given priority, that anticrime and
anticorruption laws be enforced, that strict security at all national
borders be mandated and that criminal trafficking in persons and
substances be stopped.
   The Fair Trade Community will offer protection, not only because it
will end the exploitation of people, and the deterioration of ecosystems,
in the Americas, but, as important, it will prevent the exploitation of the
Americas by overseas nations and corporations.
   The Fair Trade Community will work with the Organization of
American States and other organizations to provide a transnational
judiciary, a system of
courts of arbitration, and, most importantly, a bottom up democratically
controlled representative system, through which employees elect
representatives to the body which legislates rules. The Fair Trade
Community will of course
observe all the laws of the member nations and all the applicable
international treaties under the auspices of the United Nations, the



                                                                           53
World Trade Organization
and other legitimate international organizations, noting that where there
is a conflict of law, the conflict will be referred to the World Court in the
Hague,
or other designated body, as the final arbitrator.

2.) One solution to the problem of nations with large numbers of
citizen in poverty who presently lack the education to follow the
government actions and vote their best interests is that a neutral
impartial body might provide some kind of legal democratic
framework and sequential steps by which nations which are not truly
democratic can evolve. The institutionalization of democratic
standards and ideas among the citizens is not easy to create and to
maintain. It requires hard work from the citizens and it demands that
the citizens be committed to the concepts of human rights, freedom,
and democratic participatory government which are questions of
education and socialization of the citizens.




Chapter VI. Poverty alleviation issues and
solutions.
Andrew Oerke, John Schiller, Pierre Armand

In terms of suffering and the dangers it poses to society and the
environment, poverty is near the top of our list of hemispheric
problems. In addition to the anxiety and the meager life style that
it engenders, poverty is a major factor in causing disease,
environmental degradation, the population explosion, educational



                                                                           54
disabilities, social unrest and conflict. Of course, it is a major
issue to be addressed when considering social justice.
In the hemisphere in 2008 It is clear ho w many live under $2/ day
per person. These numbers are seen in Table XXX. (O ne estimate
finds there are about 207 million persons living under the UN
poverty limit of $2/day from S. Engels , hearing US Congress,
2007. Other estimates are as high as 350 million and the
summation from the International Futures model is some what
lower.) Brazil has 34 million poor of a population of 196.8
million; Mexico 17 of 108.4; Peru 7 of 29.62; Haiti, 7 of 9.169;
Columbia 6 of 48.3; Argentina 5 of 40.44; and Venezuela 4 of
28.42). There is another group which has lo wer populations but
high percentage poverty, but the total number is lower than the
nations above (This is comprised chiefly the northern central
American and Andean nations.) (There is a third group which
have almost no poverty including Canada, Puerto Rico, Uruguay,
Guyana, Belize and Suriname and other small islands which
belong to Europe or have good economies such as the Bahamas .
Then there is a fourth group with about 10% poverty including
Jamaica, Panama, Chile, Dominican Republic. An unacceptable
level of poverty is found in specific sites and nations in the
hemisphere. Many of these are found in the Andean (especially
Bolivia and Paraguay and the Andean portions of Peru and
Ecuador) and northern Central American nations, plus Haiti and
a few other nations in the Caribbean (where about 80% are under
$2/day). It is these same high-poverty areas in the hemisphere
which are experiencing unsustainable population growth. It is also
these areas that are putting the greatest pr essure on their
environmental resources. People in poverty are desperate. The
survival and themselves and of their children and their culture is
at stake. They will cut down the forest for building and fuel
materials to sell in the market, and for land for food production.
They will produce large numbers of children for security in their
old age, because they experience a high infant mortality rate and
lack the educational and economic incentives to do otherwise.
They suffer from a shortened life span and debilitating health
problems simply because they lack the kno wledge of the most
basic public health measures. Glaring social and economic
inequities have terrible social consequences: crime, class warfare,
political strife, and war itself.


(Insert table here of per capita income in each high-poverty
hemispheric nation and number of citizens in the poverty ( under
$2/ day) level and a summing of the total number of the people in
for Americas, South, North, Central , & the Caribbean.)
The problem is obvious and huge in the world at large as well as
the western hemisphere. An estimated two to three hundred
million in the hemisphere struggle under or just around the
poverty level. (The hemisphere’s poverty levels have two


                                                                     55
definitions within the International futures models, both taken
from United Nations standards: One is that per person the income
is $1/ day or less; the second is $2/ day or less. What happens to
people on $2.50 / day are they not also poor? There are several
problems with these poverty definitions as you project poverty
forward in time in our International Futures model. One is that
the definition may change over the chosen time frame as the value
of money changes which can change in many hemispheric nations (
(Argentina, Mexico, Haiti) almost overnight. The second is that
those in the country living a subsistence existence may do
adequately on that amount, but city dweller’s who must purchase
all commodities including water, housing, cooking fuel, food, etc.
may survive under far worse conditions on this same $2/
person/day.)
The problem of ho w to solve poverty is enormous with grave and
dire consequences ‖The first step is to recognize that poverty is
systemic and ―paradigmatic‖. The present strategies to eliminate
or alleviate poverty can be divided into the trickle-downers and
the trickle-uppers. There is a great de al of acrimony dividing the
two approaches but, although both of the approaches are being
utilized, poverty is not being reduced except in individual cases.
The absolute number of those in poverty has not been seriously
diminished. Given the tremendous differential in labor costs,
investment is drawn to regions where labor is cheap and this is
certainly one of the most potent forces for job creation in the
developing world. At the same time, since the advent of
microfinance programs in the non-profit sector, much success has
been achieved by providing small loans at the bottom of the
economic pyramid. Despite the two approaches, working
simultaneously, although many victories have been achieved, the
war on poverty is far from being won. Poverty persists.
The problem is that poverty is systemic and in order to eliminate
poverty, the system, the paradigm will have to be changed.
The present financial system says that credit is only g iven to those
who do not need credit, that is to those who already have a surplus
of capital either in the form of cash or collateral. Whether the
capital is controlled by the government of the private sector, the
problem for the poor is their access to capital. Without access to
capital in the form of credit there is little chance that the small
farmer can improve his production or that the aspiring
entrepreneur can start a business.
This situation began to change when a Quaker business man David
Scull initiated a microfinance program in Kenya in the mid -1960’s
and one of us (A. Oerke) expanded it to Liberia in 1971-2. In the
70’s and 80’s this non-profit program had started or trained
microfinance programs in more than fifty developing nations.
Other organizations such as Accion, Women’s World Banking,
Grameen Bank in Bangladesh joined the movement in the late
1970’s and early 80’s and microfinance programs began to
proliferate in the 90’s until today. This trickl e-up approach has


                                                                   56
operated under the rubric of sustainability and has helped
hundreds of thousands of small entrepreneurs to start and
improve their businesses.
Despite the success of this approach these problems remain: 1.)
There is not enough donor money available to make much of a
dent in the problem; 2.) Most of the microfinance programs are
not really sustainable in that they are dependent on donor
financing; 3.) The sustainability model is static and not dynamic
or gro wth-oriented. Sustainability is the appropriate paradigm for
the environment but not for eliminating poverty. What is needed
is a generative model that can create surpluses that will be re -
invested to serve other clients in poverty; and 4.) a model which is
no longer dependent of the affluent and those with capital to
create the development that will eliminate poverty because that is
not happening therefore a model is needed in which those in
poverty can access credit by themselves are able to collateralize
themselves. Several experiments are underway to achieve these
goals. 1.) There is presently an attempt to evaluate the houses and
land of ― squatters‖ to give an economic value to the assets that
can be used as collateral. 2.) In addition to the many programs
and disciples of David Skull’s and Andrew Oerke’s efforts
managed to spin off, most of whom are still working on and
expanding micro-credit programs, the Partners for Productivity
has made an attempt to join the for -profit and non-profit sectors
in a synergy that would generate surpluses and thereby is able to
grow in its effort to eliminate poverty. One of the lieutenants,
Shari Berenbach is no w head of the Calvert Social Investment
Fund set up by Exxon Foundation and several others with assets
exceeding $300 million, all dedicated to microfinance projects.
This model has now been picked up in Norway, Germany, and
Holland. 3.) Two of the executives (Oerke and Armand) who ran
the Scull program after Scull retired in 1976 , have developed a
new generative microfinance model and are presently testing it in
Haiti, where the need is especially great particularly in the wake
of the disastrous hurricanes of 2008 and subsequent ruin of crops
and flooding Haiti has experienced. As soon as the model has been
tested in the field, it will be replicated in as many developing
nations as possible, particularly in the Western hemisphere setting
the goal of fifty of the global poorest for the next ten years. This
third initiative is being coordinated with hemispheric initiative
launched by the USA Club of Rome. It is one of an ensemble of
projects that will be spun off from this USACOR study in an effort
to anchor this study in the actual world with real results among
the stakeholders, rather than having the study end up as one more
report on the shelf.
PROBLEM: The major critical problem found by the committee
was the access to capital by the poorest persons of the hemisphere,
which is comprised of those living on $1 to 2/day. Frequently these
are small farmers, or micro-businesses of agricultural and natural
resource products (fish, crafts, etc.) and can be either rural or



                                                                  57
urban. An important interactive factor is family size. Another is
infrastructure (roads to a central market, a central market,
packing houses, communications to the market, vehicles to get
produce to market, etc.) supporting selling excess agricultural
production over what the farmer’s family consumes.
Solutions: The access to capital is best solved by microcredit
which does not depend on original government or charity input
from a large credit donation to be split into many pieces, but
must, if it is to reach throughout the hemisphere, be self
generated. This is now being tested thoroughly in Haiti.


Chapter VII. Economy
By Robert Hoffman, Orio Giarini, David Lehrer, Pierre Armand,
Herman Daly (of advice), et al.
Introduction
There are 38 nations in the Hemisphere, of which 17 possess an
industrialized economy while the others are newly industrializing
and will develop rapidly during the 50 year period. North America
(Canada, Mexico and USA) is highly industrialized as are
Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Uruguay, Venezuela, Columbia, Puerto
Rico, Iceland, Jamaica, Netherland Antilles, Bahamas, Panama,
Costa Rico, and the Virgin Islands. The populations of these
nations, the GDP and size of their economies differ vastly among
both among the industrialized and non-industrialized nations of
the hemisphere. Their futures may progress very differently from
one another due to varying natural resources, excellence of
governance, and energies of the citizens. Some nations are already
participating in the post-industrial service phase (e.g. Banking
plus tourism in some island–nations forms the economic basis),
while other nations are chiefly agricultural (e.g. Central America).
A series of nations have resource extraction (mining and oil a nd
gas production) as important economic sectors (Chile, Peru,
Bolivia, Ecuador, Venezuela, Columbia, Brazil, Jamaica, Canada,
USA, Mexico). Many have highly productive fisheries for export
particularly the Pacific coast nations from Canada to Chile. A few
nations specialize in forest products (Canada, USA, Chile, and
Brazil). The economic future of the various nations may evolve
differently. Some have extensive histories of peaceful government
transitions with responsible voters who guard their democracies
and others have encountered more turbulent governance patterns,
some with several revolutions, or military take -overs. The natural
resources are concentrated in the larger nations at the two ends of
the hemisphere, while the very small nations have extens ive ocean
resources, but less mineral, water and forest resources. Vibrancy
and vigor of the peoples who produce the economic products occur
throughout, partially due to the sustainable natural resource base
to date, and partially due to their own energies .


                                                                    58
Future Statistics of
Economics in the Hemisphere
The economic outlook projection from this study is derived from
Hughes International Future Model which operates with a series
of parameters: GDP [Gross Domestic (national) Product], GDP
per capita, GDP gro wth rate, Government consumption,
Government expenditures, investment, infrastructure index,
knowledge society index, imports, exports, trade balance,
Solvency (debt :GDP ratio), external debt , liquidity, reserves of
international exchange, investment ratio to gross domestic
product, and private consumption.
The economic private consumption of the Western Hemisphere is
presently $8450 in billions of dollars: The $8450 of the hemisphere
will be increasing to $38458 in 2055 or increasing 450%. For
North American it is presently $7492 billion predicted to go to
$28736 or about 4 fold increase; for South America it is $803
billion going to $8119 or about a 10 fold increase and for Central
America $53.5 billion going to $735.3 or about 13.7 fold increase.
This is fortunate since populations will increase at about 100 -
131% in Central America.
The GDP is presently $12537 billions of USD for the total
Americas and is predicted to be $61155 billion or an increase of
487% (For North America $11061 predicted to be $45919; South
America $1269 predicted to go to $12626, for Central America $70
predicted to be $1104.
The solvency ratio average for the hemisphere is lessened little
between 2000 and 2020 (4.93). Ho wever, between 2020 and 2055
the solvency ratio falls precipitously to almost MINUS 40 percent
of present. South America only falls 10.75 %, while North
American falls 38.01 % and Central America 20.27 %.( These
numbers were created prior to the world economic crisis and the
present USA budget of 2009.)
The investment ratio to gross domestic product ratio for the
hemisphere’s average is predicted to be +7.26 in 2055 changing
from its present -4.26. This is split between South America 7.3,
North America 8.8 and Central America 6.15. The liquidity
(current account as percentage of reserves) decreases from a
present -107.77 to -96 in 2055 for the hemisphere as a whole.
South America is 162.35, North America -98.71 and Central
America -74.85.
The trade balance changes for the hemispheric average to $189.12
by 2055 from -$361 billion presently. These 2055 numbers are
broken down as South America -$2021.89, North America +
$76.26, Central America +$94.97 billion dollars, showing a good
earning ratio for Central America, while North America
overcomes its present high negative balance of trade, which
changes the hemisphere’s balance from negative to positive .


                                                                     59
The foreign direct investment in stock in billions of dollars
increases about 5 fold from present $234 (hemispheric average) to
an increase of $1138.47 by 2055: South America, projected to
$1161.86; North America, to $1112.59; and Central America ,to
$1921.05 . This does not sho w the foreign investment in 2055 in
commercial or industrial enterprises or in real property. I do not
think that this includes currency held. The Hughes data fail to
indicate if foreign indicates ―outside the hemisphere‖ or includes
money circulating within the hemisphere.
Critical Economic Problems Impeding A Sustainable Future for the
Western Hemisphere:
   1.) Energy costs (carbon (during transition to renewable) and
       development of renewable energies ): (to committee—this
       problem is highly recommended for perusal and suggested
       by the energy committee for you to consider as one of the
       important points for your committee).You may wish to read
       their section. The environmental costs of energy are
       probably not factored into the numbers above because
       beyond USA and Canada the others are not yet doing this.
   2.) The discrepancy between high income and capital assets
       and lo w income and low capital assets which makes an
       highly unbalanced situation.
   3.) The cost to receiver nation and donor nation of migrations
       of large number of (skilled and unskilled ) citizens wh o are
       migrating throughout the hemisphere chiefly due to a
       economic flo w from poor to r ich.
   4.) ???
   5.) International trade. (The legal issues committee has
       recommended this item to the economic committee to
       consider . They have written extensively using this as their
       priority problem and solution. Please read the final
       paragraphs of the legal issues about a hemispheric free
       trade zone which they wish you to peruse.) The other
       problem associated with this is that the Chinese are buying
       farmland with its concomitant water in the south American
       hemisphere, and rights to fish throughout the Pacific rim
       and the timber wherever possible ( Peru, Canada, Brazil) .
       these resource extractions at very lo w prices may denude
       the resources of the smaller south and central American
       nations at really low prices, before they know what is
       happening, leaving them with nothing. The prospect of
       foreigh nations purchasing farmland and water for their
       own existence because they have exceeded their carrying
       capacity, leaving the hemispheric nations with almost no
       resources is frightening.
Solutions for a Sustainable Future for the Western Hemisphere:



                                                                   60
CHAPTER IX. SOCIAL PROBLEMS by Dana
Raphael, Mary Catherine Bateson, Hadley Smith,
Michaela Walsh, D.Jane Pratt, Lewis Lipsitt, Robert
Docter, Irene Tinker, Bobbi Gibbs, Natsuko Utsumi
The original human population of the Hemisphere were called Amerindians,
made up of thousands of tribes of indigenous peoples. Amerindians still exist
in very large numbers throughout the hemisphere but they form an especially
large proportion the Latin American mountains plus Amazon basin
population. They speak not only in their indigenous languages ( Maya,
Quechua, Arawak, Tupulo, Navaho) but in their national languages of
Spanish, Portuguese, several Creole dialects , French and English. Seven
large groups of migrants have come from diasporas to the hemisphere. As a
result today their mixtures with other groups and pure one-disaspora
descendants can be described as : 1.) The European diaspora came mainly
from Spain, British Isles, Italy, Portugual, France, Poland, Germany,
Netherlands, and Scandinavia; 2.)Mextizos are peoples of mixed European
and Amerindian ancestry; 5.)The Subsaharan (Black) African diaspora;
5.)Mulattoes are some proportion of mixed Black African and European
ancestry; 6.) Zambos in Spanish, Cafusos in Portuguese, and free mixture or
half and half in English are peoples of mixed Black African and Amerindian
ancestry; 7.) Asians are peoples of unmixed origin descending from diasporas
from Central, Eastern, Southern, and Southeast Asian; 8.) Middle Easterners
are from the Western Asia (Turkey to Pakistan) and North Africa (from
Morocco to Egypt); 9.) Amerasians are peoples of mixed, usually European,
and Asian ancestry. These groups are found in all four regions of the
hemisphere, although 7., 8., and 9. are found more in North America and the
Caribbean and 4. tends to not be found in the western Andes. The hybrid
vigor of this large mixing of gene pools from various continents is
remarkable for the hemisphere’s health and vitality of its peoples.

Linguistic groups are highly dependent on the original colonial languages.
Latin America is named for the Spanish and Portuguese languages (languages
descended from Latin).which dominate nations from Mexico to Chile (and
usually include Cuba and Dominican Republic).Anglo-American languages
dominate North American north of Mexico and English (a Germanic-, Norse-
, French- and Latin-rooted language) prevails (except in French Canada and
some French Islands). There are English-speaking cultures in the former
British colonial Islands, Belize, Guyana’s, USA and Canada which have
several differences from the Latin nations in the disciplines we study herein



                                                                           61
such as culture, governance, law, and economies, education, and poverty of
indigenous peoples. There are other north European colonies in the Island
Caribbean although retaining the North European colonial languages,
generally have much in common with the Anglo-Islands. (This is handled in
much more detail in the Language Arts and Culture Section)

There are pockets of extreme social problems found throughout the
hemisphere especially in mountainous areas and around highly
urbanized areas. Delivering social services to remote people with
difficult terrain has evidently confounded many governments of the
hemisphere. At present estimates range from 200 million to 350
million living below the poverty level
The per capita data for poverty as well as the population growth data
for the 50 year period in the 2005 -2055 shows that the two land-
locked South American nations (Bolivia and Paraguay) along with
northern Central America ( Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, El
Salvedor, and several Caribbean Islands including Haiti as the areas of
greatest poverty. Poverty and population growth appears in the
international futures model to be highly inter-dependent. Social
problems of a wide variety of types occur in the hemisphere’s nations.
Abuse of children and of females is found throughout the hemisphere.
. Slavery still exists even in urban centers in North America, although
abolished a century or more ago by most constitutions in the
hemisphere, as does illegal trafficking in humans. The present
International Future models give us information beyond that found
above in population growth, food, economy, health, and poverty
alleviation. These chapters (population food, health, and poverty)
should also be referred to.
Although the highest infant mortality is 117 deaths per 1000 births in
Haiti, it is 22.12 per 1000 births overall average presently in the
Western hemisphere and is projected to fall within the 50 yr future to
6.2. However, in Central America it is presently 29.86 , projected to
fall to 14.57 (continuing to be unacceptably high) with Guatemala
being 41 deaths/1000 children born. Bolivia has even higher infant
mortality rate of 61 average and 112 for rural areas/1000 births. South
America is presently 31.74 deaths/ 1000 births predicted to fall to
5.865 and North America is 12.11 falling to 4.2, with the Caribbean
34.53 falling to 14.57. (See Table xx).
Malnourished children overall are presently around 5% of children in
the hemisphere, projected to be falling to 0.01% overall. Both Central
America and the Caribbean are around 15% presently, predicted to fall
to about 0.05% in 50 years. Since the chief export of the Central
American nations is agriculture, it is a matter of distribution that such
malnourished children occur. The economies and exports are predicted
to increase so that considerations of social justice enter into the
malnutrition equation.
The calories available per capita overall are presently 3197 which will
increase to 3636 in 2055. The Central and Caribbean calories per


                                                                         62
capita are presently 2346 projected to increase to 3285. Pockets of
insufficient food supplies remain particularly in areas of low water
and difficult cultivation of food.
Birthrate is 15.93 projected to go to 12.68 overall for the hemisphere.
In both Central America and Caribbean it is 29.86 projected to go to
12.68. In South America it is 21.7 projected to go to 10.27. In North
American it is 15.87 projected to go to 10.27. Certain nations’
birthrates are projected to remain very high. These generally are those
in greatest poverty and with the highest infant mortality rates, which
are Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Hai ti, Bolivia and
Paraguay.
The survival/self expression index is presently 0.2621 overall
projected to increase to 0.954. In Central America and Caribbean it is
0.1422 projected to go to 0.4031. In South America it is presently
0.31 going to 0.6355. In North America it is .2726 increasing to 1.396
The ratio of traditional to secular index is presently overall 0.0945
going to 0.3624. In South America it is 0.1797 projected to increase to
0.2599.In North America it is 0.0394 projected to increase to
0.5281.In Central America and the Caribbean it is 0.07 projected to
increase slightly to 0.0922.
The materialism/post-materialism index is presently 1.907 projected
to increase to 2.453 overall. The South America is 2.115 increasing to
2.434. In North America it is 1.717 increasing to 2.434. In Central
America and the Caribbean it is 1.683 increasing to 2.256.
Literacy will increase from overall 92.73 to 99.49 , rivaling Europe. In
South America it will go from 89.61% to 100%. In North America
from 97.74% to 100%. In the Caribbean and Central America from
76.11 to 97.15. Obviously, there are pockets in rural areas of far lower
literacy especially in northern Central America and Haiti.
The physical quality of life index for most in the hemisphere is high.
Overall it is 90.29 % going to 96.42%. In South America it is 86.32
going to 97.2; in North America it is 95.74 going to 96.85. In Central
America and Caribbean it is 80.52 projected to go to 92.41.
There are historical solutions to some social issues. An example of a solution
in the industrialized nations is the discovery and simple solution for sudden
infant death syndrome which lowered infant deaths from this cause by
50%.Lewis Lipsett (2004) said, ―In developed countries, more children under
1 year of age die of crib death (sudden infant death syndrome, SIDS) than of
all other causes combined. Researchers and clinicians proposed many
possible causes of SIDS, but the abrupt, unexpected death of some babies
remained mysterious and frightening. Although infant behavior may explain
some of these deaths, scant attention addressed behavioral characteristics of
babies who died without medical explanation. Any explanation of SIDS must
account for the fact that most SIDS deaths occurred at 2 to 5 months of age,



                                                                            63
acknowledging that a protective mechanism appears to spare babies before 2
months but then disappears. The respiratory occlusion reflex serves as an
initial defense against smothering and can provide such an explanation.
Infantile reflexes wane, after providing opportunities for learned responses to
be acquired.
During this well-documented neurobehavioral transition from subcortical to
cortically mediated responding, some babies, viable for the first 2 months,
may become especially vulnerable if they fail to acquire sufficiently strong
defensive behaviors needed to prevent occlusion after the waning of the life-
preserving reflex. Recent success of back-to-sleep directives, urging that
babies sleep on their backs to avoid smothering, supports this hypothesis.‖ (
Lipsitt, 2004). This is an example of a scientific medical discovery, which
once learned could simply be passed on to mothers by physicians and made a
large social difference in infant mortalities in North
America.

CRITICAL SOCIAL PROBLEMS and SOLUTIONS
The committee has evaluated the sets of critical social problems in
the future of the Western Hemisphere. The foremost critical
problem is ho w to change actions of stakeholders into sustainable
actions for the Hemisphere. Both awareness of the problem and
solutions for the process of change are imbedded in the follo wing
quotes from two members of the social issues committee :
           Mary Catherine Bateson (2008) has expressed the essence of the social
           problem, ” As we discuss the changes in awareness and attitudes
           needed for changes in behavior to bring about environmentally
           sustainable conditions globally there are three levels of change involved.
           I. People need to understand and acknowledge the facts about
           interconnected global dangers and potential humanitarian crises that
           confront us, some most urgently, and their relevance to them and their
           descendents. II. People need to understand that actions can be taken to
           reduce those dangers, both at the personal and local level and
           extending globally. III. People need to believe that reducing these
           dangers and alleviating the associated suffering is not only possible but
           also worth doing, even if they believe their own interests are not
           directly affected.”

           “I and II can be regarded as primarily informational, but this is an error.
           We tend to assume that if the scientific facts are disseminated and
           appropriate technologies are made available, these will be sufficient to
           motivate action, but even here there are underlying standards and
           assumptions that act as barriers. III is entirely a matter of values. It is
           important to acknowledge that we are talking about fundamental
           changes in systems of belief, by which I mean not religions but what
           people take for granted as common sense. The items in the following
           lists are themselves interconnected. Not all human beings (individuals
           and nations) accept the following ideas:
                - conditions for life around the globe are interconnected



                                                                                   64
               - human behaviors can change these conditions and have in the
           past
      - there are such things as “universal human rights” and basic minimum
      standards to be met everywhere
      - human beings have a responsibility for each other’s well-being and
      for the stewardship of natural systems.”

           “Most human beings (individuals and nations) have traditionally believed
           at least some of the following:
      - that more is better and growth is necessary
                - that the natural world and all its species were created for their use
      - that they own territories and resources to do with as they like, ignoring
      effects that go further afield
      - that what they do personally has no wider effect either way
      - that the well being of a particular nation or community is more important
      that that of any other group
      - that their misfortunes are caused by others (e.g. colonial powers)
      - that the misfortunes of others are unconnected to them and caused by
      fate
      - that human suffering from such causes as infant mortality, disease and
      poverty, including mass epidemics and famines, is inevitable (and
      sometimes deserved)
      - that national populations and economies should be maximized
      - that inequality (i.e. cheap labor) and competition are necessary to healthy
      economies, and that different standards of living, health and education
      naturally apply to different groups
      - that collateral damage to ecosystems and persons are inevitable outcomes
      of competition
      - that different areas of policy (e.g. education and health) are unconnected
      and can be left to different groups of experts
      - that more complex technology and increased production equal progress
      and progress cannot be stopped.”
           “When we speak about awareness and changing attitudes or
           consciousness, we are speaking about all of these issues. When we are
           examining cases or examples of change where local behaviors have
           wider effects (such as SIDS prevention), we need to consider which of
           these issues they illuminate or obscure, how they play local vs. globally,
           and how they connect to each other.”

 ―Individual Human beings’ actions in the microcosm have
consequences in the macrocosm.‖ ― Unless individuals begin to
identify themselves as part of the process, they will not themselves be
willing to change. Humans live and act in multiple worlds, each one
providing a context for the development of a sense of identity in
relationships, each one potentially more inclusive.‖ ―The goal of
education for global responsibility must be to give each child a sense
of being as a part of these larger contexts. Because so many private
familial actions have an impact on global systems, it is urgent to
maintain a sense of identification with these systems and to think
habitually in terms of the causal and ethical relationships between
multiple coupled and embedded worlds. Within the tradition however,
we have come to emphasize the individual over the relationship and


                                                                                    65
we build our ethical systems rather narrowly on the value of
individuals, rather than cherishing the multiple emergent identities
that consist in being a part of some larger system. This tends to keep
us unaware of the broader ethical imperatives of being part of a
community or an ecosystem or even a family. ―We need to develop
both an ethic that values relationships as well as individuals and a
capacity for identification with all the larger systems with all the
larger systems of which we are part. For adults, the task is one of re-
learning. For children the task is building the foundation for the
future lifelong learning. The tools that will be needed to
communicate about the process of change have the potential for
further broad changes in patterns of thought leading the
individual child or adult into a sense of being part of the
biosphere. Such tools include systems, metaphors, narratives of
connection, crossovers between disciplines and crossovers between
ways of knowing such as participant observati on. The ultimate is an
education for global responsibility that unfolds in a pattern of lifelong
learning.‖ ―All living systems are similar in ways that are harder to
recognize, and an understanding of planetary systems is potentially
linked to an understanding of single organisms – you and me-and
small communities depend upon lar ger systems, but because of
systematic—organizational—similarities and vulnerabilities.‖
―Because of the possible analogies between different levels, it is
possible to move both up and down the levels of description, back and
forth between macrocosm and microcosm: to use global understanding
both as a source of local insight and to project local insight onto
global issues.‖ ―Making the connections across contexts . The ability
to move among multiple coupled and embedded systems is not only
critical for making the connection between individual action and
global implications, it is also directly relat ed to the capacity to utilize
education by transferring learning, recognizing and relevance in a new
setting and adapting to a new contexts.‖
―Effective communication would include the following: 1.)
Challenges to think globally; 2.) A Time scale extended beyond the
present; 3.) Integrating kinds of knowledge; 4.) An introduction to
systems thinking; 5.) An ability to deal with uncertainty; 6.)
Knowledge as a path to adaptation as well as control; 7.) Awareness
of the value of diversity; 8.) The habit of self reflection.‖ (from M.C.
Bateson 2008).


          Aurelio Peccei
          ―What we’ll need at this point in human evolution is to learn what
          it takes to learn—and learn it.‖


Hadley Smith (2009) makes these comments on change. “In working with
change systems, I have found that there are progressive,
developmental stages involved in achieving a change in behavior and
these must be equal to the complexity of the changes we need.


                                                                          66
Changing our behavior is an effect of mind change, and mind change
is an effect of an expanded awareness of ourselves, of others, and of
our shared contexts. We must start by learning a host of new
lessons which are grounded in current realities—not in those
outmoded views, values, and reasoning processes which produced
our past successes. For embedded in many of those successes are
the seeds of our present failures, and if we persist in using them
they will likely produce more failures because the environments in
which they reside have changed radically, as well. Consequently,
whole new levels of inquiry and understanding are called for which
require learning new and integrated ways of thinking, doing, and
behaving based on the ethics of whole systems and on the values and
initiatives which will sustain and enhance all living systems.”

         Hadley Smith quotes about how mind frames work the Harvard
         authority, Howard Gardner, who offers keen observations about
         changing our minds in his book Changing Minds, the Art and Science of
         Changing Our Own and Other People’s Minds,(2004). Gardner speaks
         of mind changing occurring continually, especially among the young.
         Yet certain ideas develop very early in life which prove very obstinate
         to change. Gardner says “The trick in „psychosurgery‟ (i.e., mind
         changing) is to accept the changes that will happen anyway,
         acknowledge that certain other changes may be possible, and
         concentrate one‟s efforts on those changes of mind that are
         important, won‟t occur naturally, but can be achieved with sufficient
         effort and motivation.” Hadley adds, “For some, there is great
         resistance to undertaking fundamental change and Gardner‟s
         “psychosurgery” is certainly a key lever. But there are other levers
         which may be elicited by circumstances and these go beyond personal
         choice.” For example, Thomas Friedman observed in a July 2008 New
         York Times article about people in the Middle East, “People don‟t
         change when you tell them they should. They change when they tell
         themselves they must.” Michael Mandelbaum observed, “People don‟t
         change when you tell them there is a better option. They change when
         they conclude that they have no other option.”
         Hadley Smith ( 2009) indicated the factors making up awareness as ”
         Reason ,research, resonance, redescription, resources and rewards, real
         world events, and resistances. Changes comes about usually when the
         first 6 operate in consort and the resistance is relatively weak. Change
         is not likely to come about if the resistance is strong and the others are
         not aligned coherently. “ Smith quotes Gardner, “Most mind change is
         gradual over a long period of time. And that it may be fleeting and slip
         back to old ways if not continually supported. “ Smith concludes,“Life is
         always changing. The challenge for human beings is to shape changes
         consciously, for inherent in this obligation rests our future and our
         freedom.”




                                                                                67
Understanding and utilizing the process by which people may change
and accept the critical problems and solutions is the important critical
point to the Social Issues Committee.
Several other problems included in their priority list are the
following: 1.)Access to potable wa ter; 2.) Access to health
information especially for infants and mothers ;3.) empowerment of
women and 4.) education of women in poverty.


Interactions of social issues with other issues:
   1.) Health issues interact with infant and maternal
       mortality, in particular as well as access to capital and
       justice governance.
   2.) Food and drinking water issues interact with
       insufficient nutrition and lack of potable water for
       health especially for children. Food production is the
       chief employment source of the hemisphere. In terms
       of using carbon-sourced energy, wood and charcoal is
       widely used by rural people in poverty to cook their
       families food.
   3.) The social effects of poverty are a major critical
       problem in Central America, the Andes, the Amazon
       basin and around many urban centers where
       populations are under $2/day/capitat.
   4.) Environment interacts with food and drinking water,
       health and energy for food cooking (from forests,
       frequently endangered forests). All of these have ―soft
       technology‖ solutions which NGO’s working in the
       areas could begin teaching the poor to activate
       meaning that the NGO’s would carry out projects
       aimed toward sustainability.
Strategy :

         After identification of an overall change in awareness concept, we
need to tailor the argument for change in awareness. The steps needed to
make this argument successful include the following: 1.) Framing the
argument so that it attracts a constituency; 2.) Linking the argument to the
constituency’s needs; and then 3.) Communicating the argument. This is
illustrated here:




                                                                               68
       Some texture on each of the next steps:




Developing a Constituency: Previous examples of major change all appear to
have found a constituency. Examples include Rachel Carson’s ― Silent
Spring‖, which found a constituency in naturalists. William F. Buckley
found a constituency in blue collar workers unhappy with civil rights and big
government (see M. Yee, New York Times Magazine, February 28, 2008).
Both those efforts found traction in government and politics.

         Linking to the Constituencies’ Needs: An example by Dr.Lewis
Lipsitt involved ending use of cafeteria trays in a college setting. The
students wanted to ―go green‖ and found support for their objective of less
water usage and energy waste from the college administration, which wanted
to save money. The latter constituency may be replicated in various regions
within the Americas, or it may not. Further, implementation and detailing of
the high level recommendations should include a survey of possible
constituencies. Such a group, to have impact, must have: 1.) Size; 2.)
Influence; or 3.) The ability to influence another group with size or influence.
In particular, it may be fruitful to examine the issues in combination. Let us
take water availability, reproductive rights and education of women. Water
rights have long been a focus of power according to Ms. Margaret Catley-
Carlson, the Chair of the UN Commissioner on Water Affairs, so the most
powerful groups have already obtained what they want, and will defend those
interests. Similarly, education and reproductive rights are well-defined
battlefields. However, by mixing these categories (echoing of Bateson ―Less
Separation of Disciplines‖) new political outcomes may be possible.
Buckley’s writings on social groupings and economics, which gave the
conservative movement a means to attack liberalism in the 1960s. In a similar
way, looking at constituent needs across issues may be fertile means for
finding a constituency. This could be illustrated as: This may be particularly
fruitful if a relatively powerless constituency, e.g. women prone to high birth
rates, can link to a more empowered constituency, e.g. education.

Disseminating the Argument: the argument, better defined, must be
communicated. This was traditionally accomplished, in part at least, through
a book, which may still serve as an excellent platform. However, there are
other choices. Choices may include web publication or web-enabled
networking. Some have suggested that the political strategy used by Obama
may have broader applicability (―S. Silver, ―Relationship Marketing: How
the Obama Effect is Set to Transform America,‖ Admap, January 2009, pages



                                                                             69
40-41.). Another example of networking of messages comes from the
change in practices to alleviate Sudden Infant Death syndrome (SID). There,
a constituency of mothers who were not satisfied with diagnosis and reactions
to SID. This was a widely held concern as SID is one of the leading causes
of infant death. The concern by this group influenced US pediatricians to
form a committee, and to name the problem. Under the leadership of the
American Academic of Pediatrics, the change in practice was communicated,
initially domestically, later globally. Practice changes included both
cleanliness, and encouraging setting infants to sleep on their back. This is a
perfect example of global messaging via networking. Further, of a
constituency swinging the position of an empowered elite to change global
practices. However, the ability to reach key constituencies should be a
criterion in the choice of target. Strategy section From Robert Docters, 2009

Interactions:
   1.) All the disciplines needing change to become sustainable could derive
       information from awareness raising information and strategy sections
       above.

   2.) The poverty issues in this Hemisphere have not always been seen to
       the groups in power as non-sustainability sectors. The strategy of
       appealing to those in power to create a middle class from those
       presently in poverty which new middle class would consume their
       goods may be a powerful mechanism to overcome a great many side-
       effects of poverty by showing the upper class their own interests in
       this.

       Governance




CHAPTER X. LANGUAGE, ARTS, AND
CULTURE
Andrew Oerke, Douglas Mitchell, Sylvia Zimmerman, Jeannette
Lozano, Anitra Thorhaug, Jordan B. MacLeod, Russell Kakautl ,


There are two parts of this section for culture and arts. The non-
industrialized groups and the industrialized groups. Language
enters into both groups




                                                                           70
A. The non-industrialized groups. As the distinguished USACOR
past-President Ambassador John McDonald has concluded in his
book co-authored by Louise Diamond, (1995) ―The methods to
erase ethnic strife include valuing minority ethnic groups’
languages, cultural ceremonies, and artistic expression within a
nation.― The impending ethnic crisis in Central and South
America of indigenous peoples who (although in the majority or
near majority in many nations) have not held po wer in the last
approximately 450 to 500 years. Here we examine what the
languages, culture and arts status are at present and recommend
solutions for the future. Few statistics are available. Much of the
Caribbean and North America and industrialized South America
has been in process of adjustment to the valuing of ethnic rights
over the past fifty years.
The American Hemisphere from the Arctic Circle to the Antarctic
tip of Tierra el Fuego has sustained indigenous peoples for several
tens of millenia. Since the 1500’s a majority of the population of
indigenous peoples in many cases were pushed to lesser productive
agricultural and/or hunting lands by the various Diasporas, which
felt they could ―claim‖ the territory in the name of some distant
king in another hemisphere by planting a flag, fighting a few
battles and bivouacking an army. In some cases, there were
outright land purchases, or trades ; in other cases, the land was
shared until the Diaspora settlers outnumbered the indigenous
peoples. There are also military struggles in the pages of the
hemisphere’s history between diasporan and indigenous peoples in
the hemisphere and between various colonizing nations both in the
Hemisphere and in non-Hemisphere locations. (This is not to
minimize the past warfare among tribes of indigenous peoples pre-
Columbian and post-Columbian Western Hemisphere nor to
minimize the battles in the continents from which the diasporas
came –Europe, Asia and Africa.)
Many of the Central and South American peoples were
agriculturalists and needed food to exist from their fertile lands.
In the more barren parts of the hemisphere such as the Arctic
Circle or desert areas of the North America, there were peoples
following a nomadic indigenous existence. These nomadic peoples
were more difficult to convince about land belonging to
individuals than were the settled agriculturalist cultures.

―There is no part of the world with as many distinctly different native
languages as the Western Hemisphere. Because the number of
indigenous American tongues is so large, it is convenient to discuss them
under three geographical divisions: North America (excluding Mexico),
Mexico and Central America, and South America and the West Indies. ―




                                                                          71
―It is not possible to determine exactly how many languages were
spoken in the New World before the arrival of Europeans or how many
people spoke these languages. Some scholars estimate that the Western
Hemisphere at the time of the first European contact was inhabited by
40 million people who spoke 1,800 different tongues. Another widely
accepted estimate suggests that at the time of Columbus more than 15
million speakers throughout the Western Hemisphere who used more
than 2,000 languages. The geographic divisions within that estimate are
300 separate tongues native to some 1.5 million Native Americans N of
Mexico, 300 different languages spoken by roughly 5 million people in
Mexico and Central America, and more than 1,400 distinct tongues used
by 9 million Native Americans in South America and the West Indies.‖
(Columbia Encyclopedia 2007)

―By the middle of the 20th century, as a result of European conquest and
settlement in the Western Hemisphere, perhaps two-thirds of the many
indigenous American languages had already died out or were dying out,
but others flourished. Still other aboriginal languages are only now being
discovered and investigated by researchers. Some authorities suggest
that about one half of the Native American languages North of Mexico
have become extinct. Of the tongues still in use, more than half are
spoken by fewer than 1,000 persons per language; most of the speakers
are bilingual. Only a few tongues, like Navajo and Cherokee, can claim
more than 50,000 speakers; Navajo, spoken by about 150,000 people, is
the most widely used Native American language in the United States. By
the end of the 20th century. 175 Native American languages were spoken
in the United States, but only 20 of these were widely known, and 55
were spoken by only a few elderly tribal members; 100 other languages
were somewhere between these extremes. Mexico and Central America,
however, have large aboriginal populations employing a number of
indigenous languages, such as Nahuatl (spoken by about 1.5 million
people) and the Mayan tongues (native to about 4 million people). In
South America, the surviving Quechuan linguistic family, which includes
far more native speakers than any other aboriginal language group in
the Americas, accounts for some 12 million speakers. Another
flourishing language stock of indigenous South Americans is Tupí-
Guaraní, with about 4 million speakers.‖ (Columbia Encyclopedia 2007)

OF the various languages spoken in the western hemisphere there are
three major types of languages:




                                                                        72
    1.) European origin languages ( Spanish, Portuguese,
    French, English). Portuguese is spoken in Brazil by
    approximately 200 million.. Spanish is spoken 320 million
    in many nations chiefly in Central and South America and
    several Caribbean islands, but also, regional communities
    throughout North America. French is spoken by
    approximately 22 million in Canada, the Caribbean
    (Haiti,Guadelooupe, Martinique), French Guiana, the
    French islands of St. Pierre and Miquelon as well as
    Acadiana in Southern Lousiana, USA, plus small groups in
    Belize, Nicaragua and French Guiana . English is spoken
    by 350 million people chiefly in the United States, Canada,
    Caribbean islands ( Jamaica, Trinidad, Tobago, The
    Bahamas, Bermuda), in Central America only in Belize,
    and in South America in Guyana, and many other nations
    with English speaking populations. Dutch is spoken by
    about 210,000 in the Netherland Antilles and Aruba in
    Caribbean, and in Suriname in South America plus 85,000
    in Pennsylvania. For the 50,000 citizens of Greenland both
    Inuit and Danish are official languages.
    Indigenous languages. There are 600 indigenous
    languages remaining in the hemisphere, of which major
    linguistic groups are comprised of the following:Quechua
    spoken by 10 to 13 million speakers in the Andes, plus
    northern Argentina. Guarani is the native language in
    Paraguay for approximately 6 million people, and regions
    where these have migrated such as northern Argentina,
    Bolivia and Amazonian Brazil. Aymará is a native
    language of the Andres spoken in Bolivia and Peru by
    about 2.2 million. From Chiapas and Yucatan southward
    through 1.9 million speakers speak Mayan languages.
    Nahuatl has 1.5 million speakers in central Mexico (which
    includes the Aztecs). In Argentina and Chile Mapudungun
    is spoken by 440,000. In the Southwest U.S.A., Navajo is
    the largest indigenous with about 180,000 speakers., while
    Cherokee is spoken by about 20,000 in Oklahoma. In
    Arctic U.S.A., Greenland, and Canada about 80,000 speak
    Inuit. Canada’s largest indigenous language (closely-
    related Algonquian) is Cree with 50,000 speakers. In the
    Caribbean coast of Nicaragua and Honduras 180,000
    Miskitos speak Miskito. The Garífuna people speaking
    Garifuna who inhabit the Caribbean coast in Nicaragua,
    Belize, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua. Throughout
    the Americas other languages are spoken by fewer citizens,



                                                             73
               some by only a handful of speakers many very aged.      (
               THESE NUMBERS NEED
               COMPARING WITH OTHER
               NUMBERS.)
              3.) Western Hemisphere Idioms and/or language mixtures.
               Antillean creole is spoken by about a million and a half
               people in the Eastern Caribbean (Dominica, Guadeloupe,
               Martinique, St. Lucia) plus French Guiana. Haitian Creole
               (French plus various African languages) is spoken by 8
               million in Haiti plus the several million Haitian Diaspora
               throughout North America. Gullah (West-African-based
               language with some English added) is spoken by the
               African-American Gullah people who live in coastal S.
               Carolina and Georgia, USA. Whole new languages or new
               combinations have resulted, an example is Papiamentu (a
               combin of Portuguese, Spanish, Dutchfrom various
               Caribbean colonizers). Other examples of mixtures are
               found in Brazil, Jamaica, Belize, Netherland Antilles, plus
               Spanglish spoken in the USA.

.

Other indigenous languages are spoken by fewer participants
throughout Anglo-America and Hispanic America. Spanish is widely
spoken in USA (southeast , southwest and major cities) substantial
Migration from Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Europe brought
hundreds of Diasporan linguistic diversity over the past 150 years (300
languages spoken in the United States, Canada, Brazil, Chile and
Argentina) chiefly in small groups. A mixture of American Sign
Language used by a half million people as awithin the North American
Deaf Community.

―The difficulties facing forecasting about the fate of endangered
languages: Previous efforts to predict the number of languages that will
become extinct in the next century are flawed in that they do not make
fine enough distinctions between language situations and they assume
that socio-economic patterns that characterized the colonial period and
the rise of the nation state will continue indefinitely. Several breaks from
the past, which may affect language death, can be examined, including
language revitalization programs, information technology, globalization,
and environmental degradation. ―( Whaley, 2003)




                                                                           74
This is an index to the Native American language and cultural
information on our website arranged by culture area. (Indian tribes web
page)




                                                                     75
Ar Su No
cticbar rth
cul cticeas
tur cul t
e tur wo
are e odl
a are an


              76
a   ds
    cul
    tur
    e
    are
    a




          77
78
So Gr Gr
uth eat eat
eas Pla Ba
t ins sin
cul cul cul
tur tur tur
e e e
are are are
a a a




              79
80
Pla No Cal
tea rth ifo
u we rni
cul st a
tur cul cul
e tur tur
are e e
a are are
    a a




              81
82
So Me Ca
uth soa rib
we me bea
st ric n
cul an cul
tur cul tur
e tur e
are e are
a are a
    a




              83
84
An A Co
deama no/
n zonSo
cul ian uth
tur cul ern
e tur cul
are e tur
a are e
    a are
        a




              85
86
 Today there are 50 million people of pure indigenous stock ( Table x).
There are 300 million and more of mixed indigenous and ―other‖ stock.
   The birth rate and percent of population of indigenous and mixed
 indigenous peoples is very high in Northern Central America and the
                                Andes.




          Quotes From J. McDonald and L. Diamond (1995)

  1. ―Disregard of Non-Negotiable Issues -- the empires, and many of
     the successor nation states, have stimulated violence and conflict
     by totally ignoring three fundamental human rights issues that go
     to the core of a people's identity and which are thus non-
     negotiable:

         a. ―Language -- to control ethnic groups, governments have
            frequently denied them the right to speak, read or write
            their own language. This control mechanism does not work
            because a people will kill for the right to speak their own
            language. It is at the heart of their ethnicity, their identity.

         b. ―Religion -- history has proven again and again that a
            people will kill and die for the right to practice its own
            religion.

         c. ―Denying ethnic groups their identities. This has occurred
            frequently in the hemisphere by taking indigenous peoples
            into the Diaspora community and forcing the new values,
            language and culture to be the only ones they may follow
            or speak.‖
         d. ―Culture -- the imperialists have used various means to
            deny an ethnic group its identity by destroying its culture,
            e.g., deny a people the right to produce their own literature
            or poetry, take away their music, their dance, the beautiful
            clothes they wore for special occasions, and not allow
            ceremonies of birth, death and marriage.
             ―When the denial of language, religion and culture takes
             place simultaneously, violence is guaranteed. The common
             thread linking these three non-negotiable issues is that
             they are all man made; all have been imposed by the state -
             - and thus could be changed by a stroke of the pen. There
             are other reasons for violence in the world, such as




                                                                         87
             poverty, hunger, a lack of natural resources, etc., but these
             are long-term issues.‖



             LANGUAGE PROBLEM AND SOLUTIONS

             Language and culture are often intrinsically intertwined.
             Although this may not be true for Western Culture and
             the Emerging Global Culture, both of which comprise a
             mosaic of different languages, it is certainly true of ethnic
             cultures and cloistered cultures. In a recent interview with
             the head of the Smithsonian Ethnic and Folk Festival
             Section, he remarked that if the language dies, the culture
             will die. While this is not true as suggested above for
             Western Culture or the emerging Global Culture, it
             certainly seems to be true for the more isolated and fragile
             ethnic tribal cultures. If language goes, then dress,
             customs, rituals, religion, myths, stories, and legends,
             dances, and visual representation go also. And finally the
             culinary practices fade out or are absorbed into the
             dominant culture. When the Europeans began conquering
             and settling the Western Hemisphere, there were two
             thousand living languages. Now, a four hundred fifty years
             later, there are only six hundred left, and these are
             vanishing at an alarming rate. As they vanish, the culture
             goes with them.

B. ART
The arts of the indigenous peoples are presently in precipitous
decline except in specific sites where private sector or government
has decided that indigenous arts can be saved and thus spends the
funds to stem the tide of loss .
The cultural ceremonies of many of the indigenous groups are far
less than a century ago, although specific institutions have been
set up (the Mexican Museo Antropologico or the Smithsonian F olk
Festival, for instance) to preserve festivals. A great deal of
literature exists which discusses the ceremonies and li nguistics of
various specific tribes. (For a list of tribes nation by nation see
American Indian Tribes web page.)
The ideological commitment to equality and democracy has
become a passion in the Americas and i n many other parts of the
world. The idea of democracy has become more than an idea: it is
more a cultural force that governs the way society works in much
of the world. Even the rich wear T-shirts and blue jeans. Culture
is no longer limited to the elites. Museums, movies, pop music,



                                                                        88
concerts, and cultural events at all levels are available free or at
low cost. Eating out is no longer limited to the affluent. When
Steve Jobs was asked why he developed the minicomputer, without
hesitation he maintained that it was to make the computer
available to everybody. The creation of the interest represented
the same motivation. Many other examples could be cited. In other
words, the democratic impulse is so deeply engrained in the social
psyche in countries in the Americas and elsewhere that it emerges
from the cultural unconscious in many ways.
The universal appeal of these cultural manifestations is obvious .
Where ever one goes one hears the music, sees the movies, and
visuals, dresses in the clothes, and thinks the thoughts and lives
the values of the proletariat, not the élites.
From one point of view, this is a po werful and positive
development for human values. As with most things, there is
another side to this powerful development. For instance, what if
the continued forces of technology and cultural democracy become
as po werful? They create one homogenous culture for the whole
world. This could lead either to a burst of creativity for the planet
or to a lack of diversity and challenge that has been the
destruction of many cultures and subcultures studied by Toynbee.
This latter possibility demands that we do all that we can do to
preserve the languages and diverse cultures while we still can.
They may be the salvation of civilization itself. The solution is to
greatly increase our efforts in this respect on the part of
governments, foundations, museums, scholars, writers, and
tourists. The folk festivals of the Smithsonian and in Oaxaca, the
native American POW WOW that are community created all over
the Americas must be supported given greater financial and public
relations support. Just as there are critical botanical cures
endangered in our forests while we destroy our environment, there
are cultural secrets in alternative cultures that may be critical
cures for social ailments and problems. Here are two simple
examples: 1.) cultures in developing -world contexts generally have
a greater sense of the individual as a matter of society so that the
purpose of the individual is to serve society. In the industrialized
cultures, society is seen as something that exists for the sake of the
individual. Obviously, we can learn from each other and a
both/and solutions is called for. 2.) A sense of time is different in
the dominant industrialized culture from what it is in non-
industrialized cultures. Industrialized cultures are obsessed with
the past, to learn from it, and the future to plan for it. This
obsession often misses the important satisfaction that comes from
living in the only time we have –the living NOW. Non-
industrialized cultures typically are tied to the NOW while often
ignoring the past except as legend and myth, and forcing the
future into a cultural format hostile to change or so laden with
inertia that it cannot change. Obviously all culture would be
richer if a synthesis of these very different cultural paradigms
could be achieved. There are many other examples that could be



                                                                     89
given but , a great deal of work remains to be carried out in the
language and the cultural domain. There may not be much time
before the industrialized culture and its perhaps non-sustainable
paradigm completely engulfs the human species and wholly wipes
out diversity and creativity. The second problem is that realities
about the Western Hemisphere will be lost in the truths which the
indigenous languages contain ( Inuits have many different words
for snow, Hawaiians many words for types of lava rocks.)
There are two undercurrents occurring simultaneously: 1.)
Decline in language, art and culture of the indigenous peoples with
pockets of indigenous culture being preserved and taught; 2.) A
new art and culture reflecting the hemisphere having chiefly
arisen as native and non-derivative of the diasporas which is
manifested in a series of fine arts (painting, sculpting, murals,
etc.) as well as written literature (novels, poetry, theatre).In
dance some preserves old patterns, (Ballete Mexicano), while
other creates new varieties of dance with Latin music such as the
cumbia ( Columbia),the samba and Bossa nova ( Brazil)the tango (
Argentina and Uraguay), Marinera ( Peru), Tondero ( Pirua). There is
also higher ―art‖ music (Songs of the Southwest-Waldrup) and other
art forms (performance art, opera, etc.). This is particularly
apparent in the popular culture . This new Western Hemisphere
art form is frequently in nations which are more industrialized
and supportive of artistic endeavor, although exceptions occur
such as Pablo Neruda’s poetry of Chile and Peru (Nobel Prize)
especially Residencia en la tierra, the stories of Gabriel Marquez
of Colombia, or Gabriel Mistral, Chile (both Nobel Prize winners),
Miguel Asturias, Guatemala (Nobel Prize),Mario Vargas Llosa
and Jorge Luis Borges. While Derek Walcott, St. Lucia (Nobel
Prize) has a distinctly Caribbean flavor. Tamayo, the Mexican
painter, is an example of indigenous vision with a distinctly of
Mexican color palette, iconography, and subject matter all derived
from his childhood experience as an indigenous person.
The Problem :
1.) The disappearance of a language o r a culture is a significant
occurrence for the human race on the most obvious level. It robs
the world of some of its magnificent diversity and variety that are
the basis of the richness and wonder of life itself. Each culture
enriches us with its stories and legends, its religion, its art, its
music, its dance and its way of interacting with nature and with
other members of its groups and those outside its group. It is the
depth and variety of those cultural resources that were the
wonderfully varied tapestry of modern life. To subtract from this
seminal diversity is to diminish all of us
2.) Each language is a cognitive windo w on reality. Each has its
particular structure, rhythm and sound as it struggles to represent
what it experiences in the world though its medium in a way that
is communicable to others. Each one is unique and its grammatical
structure, its rhythms, sounds, and strategies may tell us as much


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about reality as its words do. Once the language is lost, this
particular insight into reality is also lost. We fight hard to protect
endangered species of plants and animals. Billions of dollars and
decibels are expended on this effort, yet when a language dies, it
dies unnoticed and un-mourned. Almost no one considers loss of
language a problem. Many see the preservation of traditional
languages as a nuisance, a bother, and something that holds people
back from assimilation into the dominant culture. For the most
people, the destruction of languages is an invisible or non-existent
problem and this is the kind of problem that is the most difficult
to solve. The disappearance of the culture poses the same problem.
If such a culture is endangered or dying, it may be noticed by a
few anthropologists, but no one else cares and no care is offered to
the sick patient. Plant and animal species are seen as objects of
great value to be protected with regulations and financial support.
Endangered languages and culture are ignored or mummified in a
book or museum.
 3.) The third problem relating to the loss of languages and
cultures. The British historian Arnold Toynbee carefully studied
the cultures and civilizations that have emerged during human
history. His study reveals that cultures have exhibited a
morphology, a birth, gro wth and death phase. The death occurs
when the culture is no longer able to successfully respond to the
challenges facing it or has no challenges and difficulties to give it
energy. In the largest sense , the death of these cultures caused
untold suffering and confusion, but there was always another
culture that could and would take the place of the dying one, and
so the future of the human race (or the human experiment if you
wish to call it that) was insured. To ward the end of his life
Toynbee remarked that there may be only one culture left and
that is Western Technological Society. If indeed Western
Technological Society is overwhelming all other societies, what
will take its place when it looses its motive force? Will the species
itself merely begin to fade away and disappear ―not with a bang
but with a whimper‖? If this is so even a remote possibility, we
must begin to take the possibility seriously and deal with it.
4.) The problem has been complicated by the emergence of a
powerful new idea on the human scene. With the advent of the
American Revolution and the Mexican, Haitian, Venezuelan,
Colombian, Argentine, and other revolutions that soon followed in
South and Central America, a po werful new movement toward
equality and democracy began to spread around the world. The
frontier experience in America further intensified the reaction
against a society with class distinction by elevating the common
man and praising his self-reliance. This frontier experience
created not only self-reliance, but flexibility of dealing without
societal networks and infrastructure, and asserted the equal role
of women who frequently kept the home and farm operating
without men who were fighting or workings elsewhere.
Additionally in many locations there was considerable interaction



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between indigenous peoples and the diasporas in whic h
information and culture flo wed in both directions. [Sam Houston,
first Senator from Texas and First President of Texas, wore
American Indian attire to the US senates (since he had lived with
the Indians for several years) until he was outlawed to wear this
by Senator Calhoun.]


SOLUTIONS:
The committee has chosen to consider critical problems of non-
sustainability in both categories:
1.) The dwindling languages are a critical problem which will
continue to loose languages and eventually those cultures unless
direct action is taken by individuals within the language -culture
groups, scholars and other who understand the importance of
conserving these important windows on reality . The concept of
language schools run by the speakers them selves with local
regional or federal funds and partly self sustained such as the
―Hebrew Schools ―, which have taught language and culture to
children in many of the nations of the world over more than a
thousand years can function to keep the language alive.
2.) The problem of the decreasing use of the culture, art,
celebrations, and language which can be maintained in cultural
centers such as Museo de Antropologia‖ in Mexico City along with
the Oaxaca , The Canadian Museum of the First Nations, The USA
Museum of the American Indian. These celebrate in multi -artistic
media the art, languages, dance, culture, and celebrations of a
number of tribes. A second solution are the one tribal groups
museums and celebrations of tribes which in north America are
becoming more prevalent as ―Po w wo ws‖ of tribal groups, and
excellent historical and cultural museums on tribal lands and in
regional museums created, financed and carried out by the
indigenous peoples themselves with no government sponsorship or
funding.
3.)For the more industrialized art forms, the problem has been
over the past three hundred years to separate the derivative from
the Diaspora from the art forms arising in the Western
hemisphere. Strides have been made in music (Jazz, blues, pop,
musical comedy, utilizing native themes in classical format.
―Songs of the Southwest‖ by Gideon Waldrup, Bob Dylan’s music
and lyrics, the musical anthropologists like Woody Guthrie and
Pete Seegar (reviving work songs), Los Indios, Xavier Cougat, the
Samba and many other dance -music forms. In art Tamayo, the
Mexican artist having icons, color palette and themes totally of the
Mexican culture, Siqueiros, Orozco, and the Ecuadorian Quechua
artist Guayasamin. In literature and poetry one finds an original
Western hemisphere literary voice which started in the 1800’s
with Mark Twain, and followed by Ernest Heming way, Pablo


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Neruda, Octavio Paz ,Derek Walcott, William Faulkner, Gabriel
Marquez, Gabriel Asturias, John Ashbury, and Borges and in
theatre Tennessee Williams and Eugene O’Neill. In dance, there
are indigenous dance forms taken to the level of the stage in Ballet
Folklorico Mexicano, jazz dance of Alvin Alley, and many other
jazz troups, the Brazilian and Trinidadian festivals of Carniv ál,
such as the Hopi rain dances, and Oaxac a festival dances), North
American POW WOW’s, New Orleans Jazz Fest, and other forms.
Greater support for totally Western Hemisphere voices in the Arts
need to become available.
Interactions:
Governance: The consideration of the needs of groups with
indigenous histories should be given through museums, active
participation in cultural events, and curriculum in the schools
respecting these indigenous histories. Indigenous language schools
are best run privately due to past histories of damping out
languages by the governments. The official languages, of course,
with assistance for early childhood proficiencies in official
languages, and adult official languages courses should be
provided.
Poverty: Many efforts to obiliterates poverty eds up obliterat ing
language and culoture.
Education: Curriculum should include an understanding of the
indigenous culture of that nation.
Legal: Universal enfranchisement of indigenous peoples with
protections for their voting rights. It is because the lobbies have
made environment central that endangered plants and animals
have more rights than endangered languages, which diversity may
be essential to the survival of the human race.
Environment: The indigenous people’s should have some say over
presently owned government land’s that are their native and
historical patrimony especially if they provide essential cultural
and food, and medical elements for them.




CHAPTER XI. EDUCATION
Howard Jacobson, Edna de Sousa, Marilyn
Moseley, Jarad Oerke



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The model tells us that the educational level during the
50 year interval will increase in most of the nations,
including industrialized and newly industrializing.
Interactions of education:
   1.)   Population, women who have a small
         amount of education tend to smaller
         families
   2.)   Development of the nation: the real
         development is not only in infrastructure
         but in the development of the citizen’s
         minds and skills.
   3.)   Health. Education for simple health
         concepts such as hygiene and finding and
         using skilled health workers.
   4.)   Languages of their cultural group should
         be a portion of this.
   5.)   Food and environment. It is possible to
         combine information about simple
         technologies for food and conserving the
         environment with education which will act
         practically in children’s lives.
CHAPTER XII. Governance Issues and
Solutions
Mark Rosenberg, Pierre Armand, Francesco Stipo,
Suzanna Chacon, Noel Brown, Gil Gerberto
Introduction:
         The democracies in the Western Hemisphere are some of the oldest and
         most continuous in the world. The Icelandic Alting has convened
         continuously for more than 1000 years being democratically elected
         throughout with an informed and responsible citizenry. Prior to the
         European and African Diasporas , the governance ranged from
         theocracies to tribal democracies with the agriculturist societies of
         Mexico and Central America and Western South America tending toward
         theocracies, while North America and Eastern South America hunter
         gatherer societies tended toward tribal democracies.
          The first revolutions against colonial powers were held in the Western
         Hemisphere from 1750 to 1850 (USA (1776), Haiti (1791), Mexico
         (1810), and the Bolivarian and San Martin revolutions which engulfed
         Spanish America, ending in the 19th century (Langley, 1998). These
         revolutions of national groups of peoples born in the Hemisphere
         against the European colonizing governments had a profound impact on
         the governance of the Western hemisphere (Langley, 1998). The
         mutually shared experience of necessarily being self-sufficient, dealing



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         with Indigenous peoples who operated from wholly different sets of
         governing principles, participating in these anti-European-colonial
         revolutions, and finally creating and operating the various national
         democracies has bound the hemispheric nations together to make their
         experience of entering the industrialized age different from the
         European or Asian entry into the industrialized experience. Although
         many Western Hemisphere nations either had a revolution or were
         granted self-governance during the last 60 years, there are still some
         colonial powers which control governments of island nations in the
         Hemisphere (Netherlands, Denmark, France, England). Most
         hemispheric governments are constitutional presidential democracies
         while the colonial vestiges have left some of the island nations as well
         as Canada with Parliamentary governments in contrast to Europe,
         which has mostly Constitutional Monarchies. The Napoleonic
         Law is a Code of Civil Law not constitutional law.


Critical Problems :
There are several sets of particularly severe Hemisphere
governance problems leading to non-sustainability: 1.) Some of
the long-lived democracies in the hemisphere appear to be
going through a period where ethnic conflict is dominating
within the nations between various citizen groups or between
democracy and other political philosophies differing from
democracy. National stability for nations which have ethnic
conflict is frequently threatened.
 2.) Critical security issues from international threats which
include proliferation of weapons, rampant crime, international
criminal cartels which deal in illegal smuggling of people and
substances, piracy, energy security, food and water security,
and terrorism among others.
 3.) Problems of resource security with governments which
evidently cannot control their allocations of resources . These
resources include agricultural land and its concomitant water,
energy resources, minerals, forests, potable drinking water,
fisheries, people and other issues , some of which are criminal
activities such as trans-national shipments of illegal arms and
substances.
4.) Corruption within governments which frequently leads to the
citizens in poverty (under $2/day/person) not receiving minimal
health, education, or infrastructure access.
Solutions:
1.The Merida Initiative works with the the partnership betw een
USA, Mexico, Central American nations, Haiti, Dominican
Republic to couter organi zed crime. ( specifically drug cartels
and gangs who threaten safety of communities) Also the


                                                                               95
example of Columbia’s effort to confront FARC . The Peruvian
Government’s efforts to stamp out the drug growth.
2.) The Free trade Agreements as significant boosts to
democratic consolidation: 1.)Peru-USA free trade agreement;
NAFTA: Mercur;      ; Columbian-USA free trade agreement.


Interactions:
1.)Education : Citizens receiving civics of citizenship education
to understand and deal with voting and tasks of citizenship are
highly needed in certain emerging economies and always
important in industrialized economies.
2.) Environment:
3.) Language , Culture
4.) legal
5.) economy
6.) energy


CHAPTER XIII. SECURITY Issues and
Solutions
C. Van Hudson

Chapter XIV. Technology Issues and
Solutions: Bertrand Chatel, Fredrich Prinz,
Hans Bleuel, William Rowley.
Many of the above topics (energy, economics, food, environment,
governance,education, etc.) have relied heavily in the last hundred
and fifty years on advances in technology to create new opportunities,
to become cost-effective, and to allow a better living standard in the
Western Hemisphere.The technological advances range from the
internet, to nuclear and other energy types, wide spread use of
vehicular transportation including airfreight, myrids of medical
advances including instrumentation, procedures, and therapies and
pharmeceuticals, Norman Borlaug’s ―Green revolution― in crop
production (first carried out in Mexico), and many other agricultural
advances, and including drinking water filtration for healthier
children. One might consider two types of technology. First, soft or
low tech wherein stakeholders may use this technology readily and
make choices to purchase and/or use it for their life and business
persuits: soap, fish culture, forest and marine plant restoration,
computers, cell telephones,mortgages and financing loans, birth


                                                                    96
control methods, and planning for the future are examples of
relatively low tech and low cost technology . Second, hard technology
has been used by industry and governments increasingly which is
expensive and must be carefully controlled. Examples here are oil
refining methods, hydro-power, modern medical equipment and
procedures, remote sensing for agricultural, forestry and
environmental assessment, disaster planning and tracking, and modern
security methods.
The Western hemisphere has been particularly creative in inventing
new technologies and there are indications are that many more will
occur. The International Futures Model does not give the Technology
committee statistical indications of what will occur . Therefore, many
of the projections are from the committee’s experience and foresight
capacity.
Problems: 1.) The costs and environmental side effects of renewable
energies’ technologies; 2.)National Security technology getting out of
control of the democracies who own and invent it. 3.) The trade off
between indigenous rights and global use of pharm aceutical
technology from indigenous formulas.
Potential Solutions from Technology
   1.) Birth control methods which is yearly or long-term
   2.) Low cost energy from renewable hemsipheric sources
   3.) Transport without toxic emmissions
   4.) Low cost Drinking water delivery.
Interactions:
   1.) Energy: Technology is extremely important to create cost-
       effective renewable energy and environmentally clean fossil
       energy.
   2.) Education: Education in technology is important to produce
       citizens who will be involved in the industrialized world.
   3.) Poverty: much „soft energy could be transmitted to those in
       poverty with excellent results. NGO’ s should concentrate on
       this.Examples are hygiene with use of soap, simple farming
       advances, silvaculture, town planning for wastes, and simple
       business skills such as hand held computers.
   4.) Economics: The „break throughs― which aid in stepping up the
       economic life of nations are very dependent on technology.
   5.) Legal issues: those nations which have strong patent laws and
       goverance respects patent laws have higher and better
       economies.




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CHAPTER XV. RELIGION

Thomas Berry, Keith Johnson, John Weaver
Let us not forget the history of North and South America where small groups
of religious peoples fled Europe to start religious groups in the ―New World‖.
Also the kings and queens of Spain and Portugal funded large groups of
padres accompanying the explorers and coming in large numbers later to set
up schools and religious centers to convert the indigenous peoples. Thus from
the very beginnings of the European Diaspora there were religions imported
into the hemisphere. Early settlers in North America and the Caribbean,
remembering European experiences of religious intolerance, carefully wrote
religious tolerance into their new constitutions both for provincial governing
and after the revolutions into the national governing.

The most categorization of faiths in the Western Hemisphere are as follows:
1.Christianity (North America: 85 percent; South America: 93 percent)
divided into the following : Roman Catholicism (Mexico 93%; USA 24% ,
Canada,40%) ; Protestantism (USA, 50% ; Canada, 25% ; Latin America
growing number chiefly Evangelical and Pentecostal ;Eastern Orthodoxy
0.5% (chiefly USA and Canada 3 %) ; Other and non-denominational
Christians (1,000 denominations); 2. Atheism (Canada 16 %, USA, 12 %,
Mexico, 5 %, South America, 4 %); 3. Judaism chiefly North Americans, 2 %
(USA, 2.5 %; Canada, 1.2 %) ), Latin America, 0.23 %-- Argentina chiefly .
4. Islam in North American 0.5% (Canada, 1.9 %, USA, 0.6%, and Mexico,
0.2%), and very little in South and Central America, 0.3 %); 5.) Native
American animists found throughout frequently simultaneous with other
religions, chiefly with the Catholic faith but also Protestant faiths, these
include the Pacific Islands and exclude the African-based animists. In the
Caribbean Island nations and eastern coastal plains of North and South
America, there are also African-rooted animistic believers, who also combine
their practises with Catholicism or Protestant religions. 6.) Other faiths
include Sikism, Hinduism, Buddhism, and Baha‖i are found in smaller
numbers.

Interactions:
   1.)     Population in this hemisphere has been influenced by religious
           beliefs which exclude birth control measures. Poverty is
           another factor in this influence.




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   2.)   The concepts of man’s dominion over nature needs
         reconceptulaizing into man’s stewartship of nature which is
         also found in many holy books (Berry, 1998, 1988)

   3.)   The faith-based missions to poverty areas in the Hemisphere
         are some of the most effective for sustainability in terms of
         health care , education, and other needs. The sustainability
         aspects along with the problems needs to be high-lighted and
         replicated. For example, a Catholic priest teaches
         Guatemaleans how to create value added for their forest
         products rather than chop down the forest.




Chapter XVI. MODELS USED FOR PROJECTIONS


The basic concepts learned in the first global models ―Limits to
Growth‖, ( Meado ws, et al. 1971), ( World 1 model) and
―Mankind at the Turning Point‖ (Mesorovich and Pestel, 1978)
and as well as the more refined models in ―Limits to Gro wth-30
years out‖(Meadows, Meadows and Randers, 2004) ) (World 3)
have propelled this effort. The Jerry O. Barney Global 2000 also
caused us to think individual nations which obviously brought us
to the sum of nations. Without these earlier and recent update of
these models this work would not have been undertaken. The
major difference is that most of these studies encompassed the
globe, not the American Hemisphere, and there is evidently no
method to separate out the national or regional American
hemisphere factors from them. The single nation studies, as useful
as they are to the nations leave the flows of environmental factors,
trade, immigration, and other factors out of the models. The basic
concepts under which we have interpreted the data, and some of
the critical problems and their solutions we found are direct
offspring of these sets of authors of these models (all members of
the USA Club of Rome) and we are greatly indebted to these
authors for their innovative break through in thinking and
concepts so as to set the general field of futures research in which
we have contributed information and predictions about the
Western Hemisphere. We appreciate their encouragement as we
worked this project.
The International Futures model of Dr . Barry Hughes, who
generously allowed us to use the data he and his colleagues
generated, was separated into basic factors for nations and
summed into regions, and could be separated away from the global
model into the Western Hemisphere. This was a fortunate
occurrence for our purposes once we had decided on the


                                                                       99
parameters of this project (time frame, geographic frame,
disciplinary matter). For example, the concepts of health futures
was a completely finished global scenario to which we have added
our experience and wisdom of several centuries of medical
practice among the authors who brought medical futures in terms
of technologies and world health to bear as well as critical medical
thinking.


WHAT DO THE MODELS TELL US?
The models clearly indicate two separate sets of forward -moving
events which are interrelated. The future of the highly industrialized
existence is characterized by large industrial urba n areas scattered
from Vancouver and Fairbanks to Santiago and Buenos Aires where
fossil-fuel-based economies with millions of inhabitants in each city
act out lives demanding a great variety of material resources and high
infrastructure support systems su ch as medical, transport, energy,
agriculture, water, education and others.
The second existence is characterized by rural, chiefly mountainous
citizens (frequently composed of the original and indigenous
hemispheric inhabitants) whose lives presently dem and minimum
from most hemispheric resources (except from forests, soil and water)
and minimum infrastructure to service them. During this next 50
years, we find it likely that the two processes will intersect robustly,
conflicting over natural resources and participation in governance and
other matters. The beginnings of this intersection have begun to occur
in 2009. Migration from the poor nations into the richer (Paraguay to
Argentina, Central America and the Caribbean into North America ,
Bolivia to Peru), internal migration to the cities for employment
throughout the hemisphere, civil disobedience of the citizens living on
less than $2/day in the island nations,Central, and South America,
civil demands for more participation and government benefits
developing from Chiapas, Mexico to Bolivia . These processes have
already begun and appear to be accelerating in pace with the dynamics
of turmoil predicted to occur. This interaction between the two sets of
citizens (industrialized and non-industrialized), regardless of nation of
origin within the hemisphere, we view as one of the large events of
the hemisphere’s next 50 years.
 The other major set of events predicted herein exacerbate this first
problem: resource depletion problems. The resource depletion rang es
from fossil energy (a key disruptive factor in industrialized settings),
fish, agricultural soil (key to all citizens), to CLEAN drinking water.
There is a third critical set of non-sustainable problems of highly
industrialized groups particularly whi ch includes loss of capacity of
governance, corruption, international economic systems, air and water
pollution ranging beyond national borders, criminal groups operating
outside of government control sometimes internationally, economic
and monetary problems, etc. We have delineated solutions for the


                                                                      100
problems, which when initiated now as preventative solutions, rather
than later when the crises appear as reactive solutions, will lead to
sustainable paths for the nations and peoples who choose to follow
these paths. Awareness is key to these solutions being activated.
The International Futures models have given us qua ntitative
predictions, which are likely to occur if major ―wild cards‖ in the
trends (such as severe effects of global warming, major international
conflicts within hemispheric locations, major sun flares, metorites
hitting the Yucatan Peninsula or other unpredictable events such as
collapse of international monetary systems) do not occur. We have
looked at these trends with our interdisciplinary committees as wise,
experienced practitioners in the various disciplinary fields and we
have then decided on the most critical non-sustainable problem sets
likely to occur from both this data from our combined experiences.
Then we have constructed what we consider the best sets of solutions
to these critical problems. These analyses must be communicated to
the particular stakeholders whose actions can correct or minimize the
most critical sustainability problems. Strategies need to be created for
activation of each change.




CHAPTER XVIII. RECOMMENDATIONS.


WHAT SOLUTIONS DO WE RECOMMEND FOR THE
CRITICAL PROBLEMS?
For the first time, we are presenting an analysis of the next 45-50
years of the Western Hemisphere using the International Future
model (Hughes, 1995) summed into 4 regions, then into the whole
of the Americas.


Bi-modal problem sets dominate future sustainability of the
Western Hemisphere. This is seen within many disciplines for the
―Future of the Western Hemisphere‖. The industrialized
populations need substantial energy to continue their present
lives, which necessitates a switch to alternate energy. Also water
use for agriculture and industry needs a great deal of modification
as does food availability. The non-industrialized populations will
under go population gro wth of 60 to 131% in 50 years creating
heavy pressures on their resources and infrastructure. This will
intersect with the industrialized parts of all hemispheric nations.
The effects of these non-industrialized populations include the


                                                                     101
following: 1.) very high population gro wth (between 60 and 131%
in the 45 year period; 2.) creating simultaneous doubled
agricultural and water demand while soil declines in the
mountainous and tropical rainforest regions; 3.) demand on
PRESENTLY highly insufficient health care and insufficient
educational facilities available for the almost doubling and large
numbers of humans in the hemisphere in poverty of less than $1 -2
per day. These doubled number of ―in poverty‖ citizens lack the
access to capital as well as education, health care and clean
drinking water. The industrialized nations as well as
industrialized areas within the poorer nations will be undergoing
their o wn sets of critical problems as they necessarily must switch
to renewable energy sources through a difficult transition period
and undergo an apparent loss of food production and supply
(including fish and grazing land) despite a higher demand from a
moderate increase in population, economic problems while coping
with the above, and transitions within educational, health,
environment, technology, and governance sectors (in many
industrialized hemispheric nations) .
The committees for each discipline have studied the International
Future’s model predictions decided on the most critical issues to
be addressed and potential sets of solutions for each. Most of these
problems are highly interdisciplinary so as to effect many
categories simultaneously. We have listed major critical problems
in disciplinary categories belo w:
   1.)   POPULATION. The Problem: An increase of
         305 additional people population (from 887 million to
         1.19 billion) will occur highly differently among the
         nations of the hemisphere over the next 50 years. A very
         rapidly expanding population gro wth (from 131% to
         60%) will occur in most of the poorest nations (Northern
         Central America (96.3%, the Andean nations from 60 to
         80%, and Haiti 96%). Simultaneously, industrialized
         South America (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Chile,
         Colombia, Venezuela), along with North America
         (Canada, Mexico, USA), (which nations are the bulk of
         the present population), plus most Caribbean island
         nations (except Haiti) will stabilize around 24-33%
         growth. These industrialized nations will contribute
         more total numbers to the hemisphere gro wing 191.6
         million whereas the three central American nations grow
         25 million. The poorer nations in the Andes and
         Northern Central America increase far greater in
         percentage-wise. Recommendations: A program of
         access to capital for micro-businesses in rural and poor
         nations and urbanized poverty areas in industrialized
         nations where poverty is below $2 /day (especially for
         women in poverty).This micro-credit needs to be
         sustainable thus found from the people themselves as
         initiated by donors (Oerke and Armand, 2009). Institute



                                                                  102
      immediately better infant and maternal health care in
      the poorest nations Honduras, Guatemala, Nicaragua, El
      Salvador, Bolivia, Haiti, Grenada and Paraguay at
      minimum (which maternal and infant health care has
      been sho wn to lo wer population growth) . Better
      education of women to 4th grade with emphasis on
      reading, math and small trade skills (shown to lower
      population rate). (Many more of the recommendations
      below for other subject matter interact with this rapid,
      high growth population problem.) The industrialized
      side of the solutions is awareness in the industrialized
      nations of citizens of what their actions are doing to
      resources from wood to petroleum including diet . There
      needs to be programs at all levels of activities to balance
      industrialized nations’ consumption with natural
      resources and balance population with food, water and
      natural resources. Energy is the particular ciritical
      immediate problem to balance as is water from
      agriculture.
2.)   ENERGY. The Problem: A transition resulting
      from diminishing petroleum to using sustainable energy
      sources is underway already. One part of the transition
      is due to the natural resource depletion of petroleum and
      high cost of import, part due to non-sustainable
      environmental side effects for burning coal (which fuel is
      in adequate amounts in many hemispheric nations) and
      side effects of petroleum for transport. Throughout the
      Western hemisphere within the next 45-50 years nations,
      energy intensive activities such as po wer plants,
      industries, residential and commercial energy use and
      transport will be required to switch immediately to
      renewable sources (found in abundance throughout the
      Western Hemisphere including ocean energy). The
      intermediate time-frame solutions (10-30 years) will
      include natural gas, hydro or geothermal (where
      available), wind, and nuclear (in some industrialized
      nations). Solutions: 1.) The recommendation to
      immediately create methods for diminishing use of
      carbon-based coal and petroleum by substitution of
      readily convertible sources such as hydro, nuclear, etc..
      2.)Intensive exploration for further natural gas
      resources is highly recommended. 3.)Intensive
      engineering for low cost hydro, wind, solar and oceanic
      energy (all but 2 hemispheric nations have oceanic coast
      lines) plus potentially clean coal and 4 th & 5 th generation
      nuclear power plants for cost-effectiveness and fewer
      environmental side effects. 4.) Rapidly switching
      vehicular fuel sources at least partially throughout the
      hemisphere is recommended immediately. Argentina is
      already proceeding in this. 5.) The transition away from
      deforestation by the poorest of the poor ($1 to 2/day)



                                                                103
          requires an extensive network of aid to bring to these
          citizens renewable sources of energy for cooking needs
          so they desist in deforesting and begin replanting the
          deforestation around them. 6.) Teaching forest
          restoration techniques and alternative forest livelihoods
          to these deforesting stakeholders in poverty is
          immediately mandatory with rewards to them for NOT
          cutting do wn their forests and to undertake forest
          restoration efforts.


3.) SOCIAL ISSUES. The Problem: A critical problem of
how the large and conservative population, industries, and
commerce of the hemisphere (not easily changing course in terms
of life style, producing large families, use of water sources,
carbon-based energy, transport, or use of energy-demanding
technology) will be informed about their action’s effects to create
a change in actions. They need to clearly understand their o wn,
their children’s and their grandchildren’s role producing their
non-sustainable resource use and ho w they as individuals affect
the hemisphere’s future plus their options in changing their
future actions. A series of their present actions are creating a non-
sustainable future for all the hemisphere and these facts need to
clearly be communicated to them with a strategy for change . Their
actions range from their present use of energy sources (wood and
charcoal, coal and petroleum), to their impact on water sources,
farming techniques which preserve soil, food production
compatible with the population size, environmental conservation
of critical resources such as fish and fish habitat, forests for
oxygen of the hemisphere, and other items. Solutions: ―Effective
communication with stakeholders would include the following: 1.)
Challenges to think globally; 2.) A time scale extended beyond the
present; 3.) Integrating kinds of knowledge; 4.) An introduction to
systems thinking; 5.) An ability to deal with uncertainty; 6.)
Knowledge as a path to adaptation as well as control; 7.) Awareness
of the value of diversity; 8.) The habit of self reflection.‖ ― For
adults, the task is one of re-learning. For children the task is
building the foundation for the future lifelong learning. The tools
that will be needed to communicate about the process of change
have the potential for further broad changes in patterns of
thought leading the individual child or adult into a sense of being
part of the hemisphere. ).― ―Unless individuals begin to identify
themselves as part of the process, they will not themselves be willing
to change. Humans live and act in multiple worlds, each one providing
a context for the development of a sense of identity in relationships,
each one potentially more inclusive. The goal of education for global
responsibility must be to give each child a sense of being as a part of
these larger contexts. Such tools include systems, metaphors,
narratives of connection, crossovers between disciplines and
crossovers between ways of knowing such as participant observation.
The ultimate is an education for global responsibility that unfolds in a



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pattern of lifelong learning.‖ ―It is urgent to maintain a sense of
identification with these systems and to think habitually in terms of
the causal and ethical relationships between multiple coupled and
embedded worlds. Within the tradition however, we have come to
emphasize the individual over the relationship and we build our
ethical systems rather narrowly on the value of individuals, rather
than cherishing the multiple emergent identities that consist in being a
part of some larger system. This tends to keep us unaware of the
broader ethical imperatives of being part of a community or an
ecosystem or even a family.‖ (Above quotes from M.C.Bateson,
2007). Among the new awareness need is consumer awareness of the
individuals effect of the food, water, energy, transport that families
make on the hemisphere and its environment (such as carbon footprint
for products or resource sustainability –an example, explication of
endangered species ownership and importation, which has grossly
stopped this activity).
  Food and clean drinking water. The
4.)
Agricultural Problems: Food production is not only a
critical need of the Western Hemisphere population, but currently
the major employment source and economic activity in many of
the 38 nations. Previous to the present, the hemisphere has been
more-or less food self-sufficient. This is unlike other parts of the
world where famines have occurred in the last 100 years and
cyclically before that. How ever, the International Futures’
predictions show that acutely increasing soil erosion plus
agricultural water problems coupled with the sharply increasing
population in certain areas will decrease the agricultural
productivity per capita throughout the hemisphere in the next 50
years while about 305,000,000 people (almost adding a population
the size of the present USA) to the hemisphere. Fisheries has
already been declining in North America and the Caribbean and is
predicted to seriously decline in the Pacific (Pauley, 200 5).
Particularly important to the agricultural nexus of problems are
the degrading agricultural with soil-water problems in the hot
spots of population growth --northern Central American
(Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua) and Andean
South American nations (especially Bolivia and Paraguay). This
agriculture is frequently on steep slopes of the Cordillera where
the almost doubled population in these locations is predicted to
create great pressure on agricultural production unless modified.
In some cases glaciers are melting creating very enriched water
supply which will not sustain long. The strain will occur despite a
large increase in agricultural imports for many nations except
North America, and increased average hemispheric yield
predicted to increase from 3.0 tons per hectare to 4.5 tons/ha as an
average throughout the hemisphere . This allo ws the overall
production to increase from 803.3 million metric tons for the
hemisphere to 1160 millio n metric tons so that the agricultural
demand due to high population growth and a higher rural
longevity in the population hot spots can partially be absorbed in
the crop supply. However, many nations intend to export much



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more food to an array of non-hemispheric nations such as Europe
and especially Asia whose production will decrease per capita.
Agricultural Solutions: 1.) Financing another critical round
of research with goals such as the Borlaug Green Revolutions
which produced large increases in productivity for cereal crops
and rice, this time fixing on Western hemisphere tubers , beans
and fruits ; 2.)Making the fertilizers organic and local so that the
expense for small farmers for commercial fertilizers and depletion
of nitrogen and phosphate cease; 3.) Grazing land conflict with
forests conservation and grazing vs. other important habitat is of
high importance of stabilize throughout the hemisphere from
Argentina and Chile to Canada. In Brazil, clearing of the Amazon
for grazing and small farming is creating a major detriment to a
planetary resource. (18% of the planet’s oxygen is being produced
by the Amazon rain-forest. There are various estimates of this
number, however the total forests of the hemisphere do provide a
great deal of the earth’s oxygen.)


Fisheries Problems: Fisheries are also of critical concern to
local food production throughout the hemisphere. Fisheries were
first seen to fail in some Caribbean nations (Haiti, Jamaica, Cuba)
and then recently have undergone a major decrease in eastern
North America. Large vessels from non-hemispheric nations are
fishing out stocks in and near hemispheric territorial waters.
Fisheries Solutions: 1.)Strict enforcement of sustainable
fisheries practices are necessary immediately; 2.) increased fish
habitat restoration, 3.)protection of coral reefs in the Greater
Caribbean, Pacific tropical and subtropical nations, and 4.) an
end to dredging and filling estuaries , coastal land, river wetlands
and bottoms, and lake front; 5.) Water quality of lakes, rivers,
estuaries and coastlines is very important to fish nursery habitat
and dumping of sewerage and industrial and municipal output
should be stopped. 6.) Removal of subsidies to fishermen,
especially to deep sea fishing is important in preserving the de ep
sea fishing and keeping fish prices internationally correct. 6.)
Fishing quotas will be necessary until sustainable fisheries
reemerge in the Western Hemisphere , especially in the Caribbean.
7.) Also consumer awareness is an important point of citizen
awareness in order to teach the consumer how non-sustainable the
fishing techniques were which obtained the seafood they are
purchasing; 8.)Immediatley halting of off-shore fishing rights
especially for factory ships granted to non-hemispheric nations is
a critical problem for nations to face in terms of non-
sustainability. Specific nations’ ( frequently not located in the
hemisphere) large production ships are stripping offshore
hemispheric areas of marine fish resources belonging to many
hemispheric nations, not exclusively to the nations whose waters
in which the fish are captured, since fish are highly migratory.
Hemispheric agreements should be made about fishing right




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grants to these ships, to avoid these exterior nations picking the
least strong nation and for corruption to be stopped.
Water Problems: There is abundant water in the hemisphere,
however, specific areas most of which are dry have over-populated
in terms of their water resources both for agricultural and human
consumption. The few deserts and chaparral areas in north
America appear sunny, but have not created a sustainable water
regime for their productivity. The dumping of domestic and
industrial waste into otherwise viable drinking water throughout
the hemisphere is also an extremely no n-sustainable use of water
resources with many other options. The failure of governance on
all levels to provide potable drinking water for their citizens is
linked to a wide variety of health problems .
5) Economic     Issues. Problems:

    6) Poverty. The Problem: The hemispheric poverty
   problem will increase significantly from (depending on the
   definition) 25-40% belo w $2/day to near 52% . All nations have
   segments of their population living in poverty. As resources
   become more scarce these segments are more effected. The
   Central American and Andean region with very high
   population growth is predicted to have increased poverty
   (frequently in highly rural remote areas or in urban poverty
   areas). This is predicted to cause disruptions due to increased
   agricultural pressure, pressure on forests for fuel and
   increased agricultural space, on health and water systems and
   highly increased migration to urban areas without ready access
   to jobs, and possibly more crime . Solutions: Sustainable
   access to capital in the r ural areas is highly important in the
   solution of this problem. The creation within the poor
   themselves of very small pools of capital which can be accessed
   at moderate local interest rates is an extremely important
   solution. Meanwhile, the normally instit uted micro-credit
   process with donor funding of the initial recyclable funds
   should continue to occur at a increased scale especially to
   Northern Central America, the Andean regions, and Haiti.
   Women must be participants in the micro-credit lending.
   Empowerment of women economically is another partial
   solution to this problem. Education of women to 3 rd to 4 th
   grade, and more child and maternal health care are important.
7.) Legal Issues. The Problems: There are a series of legal
issues including non-functioning international legal regulations ,
which have been endorsed. O ther hemispheric legal issues are
structural. Fair electoral laws are important to be implemented
throughout the hemisphere, whereas they are not presently . The
problems of poorly functioning regulatory systems and inability of
governance to create adequate conditions for citizens in many
nations is important. Critical Problem: Non-sustainable legal


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issues are clearly visible in the three major trade zones no w
established in the hemisphere Nafta, Mercosur and the Andean
community . Solution: A fair-trade zone including the entire
hemisphere for three levels of trading partnership throughout the
hemisphere is suggested to stimulate trade and economic
development throughout including areas no w economically
underdeveloped. (Note: Some of the apparently non -sustainable
legal issues are in fact issues arising from non-adequate
governance, rather than inadequate laws .)
9 .) Environment. The Problems and Solutions:
Environmentally there appear to us four dominant critical
problems: A) climate change, which issue includes the destruction
of the South and Central American forests particularly (which
forests provide a great portion of the earth’s oxygen), as well as
wetlands and coral reefs and other marine habitat and the
concomitant glacial-melt-sea-level rise. There are two parts to this
solutions: 1) All industrialized hemispheric nations and
industrialized parts of newly industrialized nations need to
rapidly switch to lower carbon-release energy sources and utilize
greater gas, hydro, nuclear, geo, and wind in the intermediate 15 -
30 yr transition to renewable energies. The vehicular emissions
are a major issue in industrialized nations so that aqueous
transport, and rail transport of good and people is preferable, and
strict governmental emission control throughout the hemisphere
must be carried out with NO CORRUPTION. 2) Halting
deforestation (see belo w B. deforestation). Sequestering carbon by
the broad-scale Pan-hemispheric activities of restoration of both
forests and long-lived marine plants are critical solutions which
will also provide solutions for belo w critical problems B, C and D.
; B) Deforestation, particularly in South and Central America, but
also on the Island nations, is not only critical for climate change,
but for the health of the hemisphere in producing oxygen, habitat,
and for hotspots of endangered species. Within the 50 years a
great change in forest and marine plant cover is predicted based
on the last 50 yr and must be halted by conservation, teaching
alternate industries from the forests themselves, halting illegal
logging, teaching forest and marine & estuarine restoration
techniques. C) Water use by industry, agriculture and
municipalities and pollution of water. The critical problems of
non-polluted drinking water simulataneously with providing
adequate water for ecosystems for fisheries , forest, wetland, and
other food webs while simultaneously furnishing water for
agriculture are clearly one of the critical interdisciplinary
problems which must be addressed by a newly -created, carefully-
executed water management throughout the hemisphere. Strict
attention to adequate technology transfer directly to the local level
so that sewerage and industrial outflows into natural waters are
halted and universally monitored is important for sustainability.
D) Biodiversity of the hemisphere is under attack during the next
50 years in the forests, wetlands, fresh and marine waters and
coral reefs. The hemisphere has 9 of 25 planetary hot spots of



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critical concern (Meyers, 1998). Solutions depend highly on the
good governance without corruption in each hot spot region. The
solutions includes conservation or purchase of the hot spots and
other critical areas, preservation of critical hemispheric forests
and reefs and large-scale restoration especially of critical forests,
wetlands, seagrasses and coral reefs. Beyond the hot spots, the
hemisphere has very important biological resources that are not
yet decimated, but are very critical and must be conserved, such
as the Great Lakes of North America and other critical lakes
throughout the hemisphere.
   9.)Environment. The Problems and Solutions: Environmentally
   there appear to us four predominant critical problems: A.)
   climate change which issue includes the destruction of the
   South and Central American forests particularly (which forests
   provide a great deal of oxygen for the earth), as well as
   wetlands and marine habitat and the concomitant glacial-melt-
   sea- level rise. There are two parts to this solutions: 1.)All
   industrialized hemispheric nations and industrialized parts of
   newly industrialized nations need to rapidly switch to lower
   carbon-release energy sources and utilize greater gas, hydro,
   nuclear, geo, and wind in the intermediate 15-30 yr transition
   to renewable energies. The vehicular emissions are a major
   issue in industrialized nations so that switches and for strict
   governmental emission control which must be done with NO
   CORRUPTION. 2.) Halting deforestation (see belo w B.
   deforestation) Sequestering carbon by the broad-scale Pan-
   hemispheric activities of restoration of both forests and long-
   lived marine plants are critical solutions which will also
   provide solutions for belo w critical problems B, C and D. ;
   B.)Deforestation, particularly in South and Central America
   are not only critical for climate change, but for the health of
   the hemisphere in producing oxygen, habitat, and for
   endangered species. Within the 50 years a great change in
   forest and marine plant cover is predicted based on the last 50
   yr and must be halted by conservation, teaching alternate
   industries from the forests themselves, halting illegal logging,
   teaching forest and marine & estuarine restoration techniques.
   C.)Water use and pollutio n. The critical problems of non-
   polluted drinking water and adequate water for ecosystems for
   fisheries food webs while simultaneously furnishing water for
   agriculture is clearly one of the critical interdisciplinary
   problems which must be addressed by a newly-created,
   carefully-executed water management throughout the
   hemisphere. Strict attention to adequate technology transfer
   directly to the local level so that sewerage and industrial
   outflows into natural waters are halted and universally
   monitored is important for sustainability. D). Biodiversity of
   the hemisphere is under attack during the next 50 years in the
   forests, wetlands, fresh and marine waters and coral reefs. The
   hemisphere has 9 of 25 planetary hotspots of critical concern
   (Meyers, 1998). Solutions depend highly on the good



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governance without corruption in each hotspot region. The
solutions includes conservation or purchase of the hot spots
and other critical areas, preservation of critical hemispheric
forests and reefs and large scale restoration especially of
critical forests, wetlands, seagrasses and coral reefs. Beyond
the hotspots, the hemisphere has very important biological
resources that are not yet decimated, but are very critical and
must be conserved, such as the Great Lakes of North America
and other critical lakes throughout the hemisphere .

      10.) Health and Drinking Water. Most Critical
      Health Problems Newly Industrializing world: A
      critical need for lessening child mortality is clear
      (ranging from Haiti with 117 deaths per 1000 births to and
      Northern Central American nations with deaths from 41 to 68
      /1000 births to the Andes with infant mortality in Bolivia overall
      average is 61 deaths /1000 births and 112 for rural areas/1000
      births). Maternal death rate is also high in these same nations.
      High child mortality has been shown previously to be highly
      related to high population growth. Solutions: The two
      immediate health goals would be to create substantially better
      hygiene training and better maternal care during pregnancy and
      infant care in these areas. Other health care solutions for these
      regions of high poverty include teaching hygiene and health care
      by staff trained (for various levels of health including nursing
      staff) from the hemisphere’s health care schools (in industrial or
      wealthier nations) who would fly to the nation to teach one 4-day
      weekend per month to a large group of health care trainees or
      nurses in country. At the end of some significant period these
      students would receive certificates and be incorporated into a
      ―Barefoot health care ― system in the high poverty nation and be
      prepared to administer simple care for several years into the rural
      and urban poverty areas as the payment for having this
      certification. It would be part of their responsibility to teach
      children at the early levels of schooling about primary hygiene
      rules and water purification, latrines, ridding contaminants from
      the water supply, and simple nutritional education. Also
      immunization must be offered starting at new-born level rather
      than adjunct in later years. Disposition of village waste education
      in terms of building and placement of latrines and water
      purification and wells is important. Another goal would be shared
      medical staff personnel training at a variety of health care levels



                                                                      110
     between industrialized and high mortality nations over the next
     decades, to allow more trained-local-health personnel to serve the
     needs of the north Central American and Andean nations within
     their nations. INDUSTRIALIZED NATIONS
     Problems : Conversely, in industrialized nations there are other
     trends occurring: Rapid medical technological advances, lessening
     child mortality and extending longevity. One of the problems is
     getting the technology benefits to the widest range of citizens in
     need. The health care and expected changes in health of the
     industrialized groups within the hemisphere are likely to be
     affected by the following: a.) Ability to alter the genetic
     disposition of the individual by manipulation of by genetics and
     genomic investigation and therapy. This includes prevention
     rather than retrospective treatment after the disease onset. b.)
     Growing organs reduplication and transplant from stem cells from
     various locations in the body. c.) Nanno-technologic treatment for
     a variety of diseases; d.) ;e.) Teams of health providers for the
     patients working together; f.) Especially important is extending
     awareness of personally-controlled illness factors such as
     smoking, poor dietary habits, overdosing of alcohol and drugs and
     lack of exercise; g.) The new system of the future should tend
     toward being ―safe, effective, patient-centered, timely, efficient,
     and equitable‖ (Rowley, 2007); h.) Another is to adapt to the
     cultivated and locally available food sources to wider hemispheric
     use. The industrialized nations need to eat lower on the food web
     (more vegetables, grains and fruit and far less meat) to maximize
     nutrition per acre of yield more equitably. Water Problems and
     Solutions:Clean drinking water interacts with industrial and
     village and municipal non-controlled output into water sources,
     agricultural run-off and regulation, enforcement plus maintenance
     of filtering systems. Water is abundant, but not distributed evenly
     in the hemisphere and a long history of municipal and industrial
     dumping into water sources, has left many areas with drinking
     water contamination seriously affecting health, particularly in the
     mountainous areas and large cities in the coastal plains of Central
     and South America. Local solutions are required.

11.) Governance. The Problems: The constitutional
democracies forming a large majority of national
governments (Canada and certain island nations have
parliamentary systems) in theory have excellent


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  constitutions and many have signed the same
  international treaties. The practice of governing these
  democracies varies widely from Canada and
  Greenland to Haiti. Two critical problems needing full
  attention come sustainable are corruption and also the
  incapability of many nations to control the critical
  problems within their nation (e.g. pollution of rivers,
  illegal cutting of forests, child abuse, terrorism,) and
  between their nation and other nations (e.g.
  proliferation of chemical weapons, illegal immigration,
  illegal factory fishing throughout various national
  waters and just offshore from these). Democracy
  including fair voting availability for all eligible citizens
  appears to be declining. A large discrepancy among
  nations exists as to success of public training for their
  population to be participants in democracy including
  their awareness of national, regional and hemispheric
  affairs, which training lies at the heart of any
  democracy. Strict and unbiased voting booth
  availability. Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Costa Rica, and
  Jamaica are nations which have taken major strides
  forward in democratic governing and citizenship
  training in the last twenty years despite large groups
  of citizens in poverty. Hemispheric counterterrorism,
  bolstering regional capacity and cooperation and
  preventing emerging threats is important to prevent
  arms proliferation and non-hemispheric nations to
  intervene. The Merida initiative is an example of
  positive action.
11.) Language, Art and Culture. Language
Problems: There are over a thousand languages in the
Western Hemisphere. When Columbus arrived there
were more than 2000 languages. The various diasporas
have added hundreds of languages. Presently only 600
indigenous languages remain, but many hundreds of
diasporas languages ranging from Zulu to Icelandic have
been added. Some indigenous languages are presently
spoken by only a few elders and need critically to survive
as window on their realty as do the major indigenous
tongues Quechua, Maya, Tupo-Arawak, Natu’al, and
Navajo. Language Solutions include are special
language culture schools run by the communities for
teaching children language and culture. Because of
negative histories these should not be involved with the
government business of running public schools. The
people participating in the various cultures are greater in
numbers than the linguistic groups. From the indigenous
citizen’s point of view, it is extremely important to
dignify, retain, and respect their culture, language, and
religion. This creates more peaceful relations between the
and its indigenous peoples. Cultural Problems: In USA


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COR past- president Ambassador John McDonald &
Louise Diamond’s (1996) ―Theory of Multitrack
Diplomacy‖, it is stated that ethnic conflict is far less
likely to arise when the religion, language and culture
are maintained and accepted with dignity by the
government with jurisdiction over those peoples.
Solutions: The Mexican Government’s two great
indigenous museums (the Museo de Antropologico in
Mexico City and the State of Veracruz’s Antropologico
Museo in Jalapa, Peru’s Antropologico Museo), which not
only exhibit cultural and ethnic relics and crafts of a wide
variety of indigenous peoples, but are used for education of
all peoples about these groups are a highly recommended
sTo maintain indigenous celebrations and festivals are
positive examples of what all the hemispheric nations should
undertake with respect to maintaining and dignify their
indigenous peoples. Arising from the indigenous people
themselves presently are museums now being placed on
tribal grounds and what in North American is known as
Indian Powwows (festival) held seasonally throughout
North America. The Oaxaca Festival of music and dance
featuring a wide array of indigenous cultures is also an
excellent example of highlighting the important cultural
values.
   12.)Education: information not yet complete
   3.)    Security : information not yet complete
   4.)    Technology Issues: information not yet complete
   5.)    Religion and the Future: information not yet
          complete



CHAPTER XVIII. CONCLUSIONS.
The hemisphere is rich in natural resources which have served its
indigenous peoples for 20,000 to 30,000 years and served the
diasporas plus the indigenous people for the last 450 years.
Particularly rich are the hemsiphere’s forests providing a large
percent of the earth’s oxygen, the fresh water sources, an
abundance of minerals from gold to uranium found throughout
the hemisphere, large amounts of energy resources (fossil and
renewable), excellent agricultural soils, floral and faunal
biodiversity and a rich fisheries. During the past 450 years
(particularly the past 160 years), the accelerated rate of utilization
of resources and the greatly accelerated rate of population gro wth
(from somewhere between 20 to 80 million in 1500 increasing to
887 million in 2005 and predicted as 1.19 billion in 2055) creates



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the need for the entire hemisphere to suddenly for the first time
contemplate either a major adjustment or a non-sustainable
future. The hemisphere and most of its nations have been food and
water self-sufficient until now so that great famines are not a part
of the history. The hemisphere’s citizens share the same ocean
waters, the same air streams, the same biological diversity of
plants and animals. Artificial political lines were drawn in the 15 th
and 16 th centuries which divided the nations from the hemispheric
geography over which tribes wandered to find food resources .
Our International Futures’ model predictions show that during
the next 50 years specific locations in the hemisphere will undergo
great pressures from interactive factors such as population growth
vs. health (infant mortality), poverty and lack of education.
Present fossil energy resources will deplete severely to affect
industrialized life so that trade-offs demanding extensive energy
and environmental constraints on fossil emissions will be another
driving force during the next 50 years. In place of European
nations wishing to exploit the resources, Asian nations, facing
severe over-population problems which has far exceeded their
natural resource base will attempt to exploit Western hemispheric
resources and in terms of fish, forests, minerals, agriculture soil
with its con-committant water, and other resources. In some
nation, Asian nations are already doing exploiting the Western
Hemisphere resources.
There is a series of important changes we have found to avert the
baseline crisis of resources being inadequate for the combined
force of accelerated gro wth of population and increasing
industrialization. These changes differ for the industrialized
nations versus the changes needed in the newly-industrialized
nations (chiefly found in Northern Central America, the Andean
region and Haiti). Both must be dealt with now in order to avert
chaos within the 50-year time frame.
One of the most important points we addressed is ho w to change
the patterns and activities of the stakeholders presently acting
non-sustainably, but who could change to sustainable patt erns.
For stakeholders to realize their own children and grandchildren
will be burdened by the problems of non-sustainability due to
their o wn actions begins their awareness process. Stakeholders
realizing what effects their actions have on the resources and that
they have multiple choices for their actions is a second step.
A critically important point which emerged is creating economic
opportunity for the hundreds of millions of indigenous and other
poor peoples (under $1 to $2/day) in the hemisphere so that they
have a better access to capital, health, water, education, so that
they will act to stabilized their populations rather than
overshooting their food production and water sources due to
continuing their extremely high growth rates (up to 131% in the
50 years in northern central America and up to 68% in the
Andes). This problem is of critical concern to many of the


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disciplinary problems so that increased population relates
strongly to other problems throughout the hemisphere such as
health, food and water, migration, trade, education, and
governance.
The solutions for the critical problems are:
The industrialized nations will face energy and agricultural crises
as fossil energy sources deplete, environment degrades, and energy
sources must be replaced by renewable energy. Increasing
demand will exceed renewable or oil capacity in the next 30 years
wherein gas, hydro and geothermal will be the most likely to fill
the gap. Careful soil and water stewardship is demanded.
Deforestation no longer occurs in most industrialized nations
except Brazil; mixed indigenous tree, shrub, and marine
reforestation is of key importance for sustainability of already
decimated forests throughout the hemisphere (Brazil and Central
America in particular), whereas conservation of forests elsewhere
is mandatory. The industrialized nations will not experience
population growth greater than 34% . However, they also will face
drinking water quality problems south of the Rio Grande. (North
of this river USA and Canada have large supplies of water which
need to be properly distributed.) Decimated inland and marine
fisheries except in far South America occur for the industrialized
nations which need major estuarine restoration and fisheries
regualrions enforcement. Particularly vexing is the offshore issue
of factory fishing ships from other parts of the globe , who have
already depleted their o wn fisheries, which must be banned from
Hemispheric waters and regulations to sustain open water marine
ecosystems. The issue of factory ships fishing within the
Hemispheric waters needs increased regulation ,
institutionalization and vigourous international and national
enforcement.
Both the industrialized nations and the newly industrializing
nations will need to concentrate on solidly good governance to
stem the illegal movement of substances and peoples ongoing
throughout the hemisphere from Argentina to Canada.
Governance occurs by constitutional democracy throughout the
hemisphere except Canada and European colonies. Presently,
there are widely varying levels of governance in terms of
effectiveness, transparency and corruption. Cooperation through
a ―Fair Trade Zone‖ for the hemisphere has been suggested by the
legal issues committee as a necessity to moderate the flow of
commerce throughout the nations .
Also of critical dimensions are the languages, cultures and art of
the indigenous peoples, which were 2000+ indigenous languages
prior to Columbus and now are less than 600. Non-governmental
indigenous language training of children 6 to 12 in their native
languages is recommended. The indigenous folk museums and
cultural festivals (Po wwows organized by the tribes, the Oaxaca
festival, Smithsonian folk festival etc.) are recommended for each


                                                                115
nation as especially effective in dignifying indigenous cultures and
educating the next generations . Throughout the hemisphere
avoidance of ethnic conflict and giving dignity to the important
indigenous cultures is recommended. Art, music and literature
with the Western hemisphere voice (rather than derivative of
other cultures) has emerged in the 20 th century and should be
highly supported to build an increasingly vibrant hemispheric
voice in the arts. (Jazz, Zydeco, Andean music, the artists
Tamayo, Rivera, Kahlo, Siqueiros, O’Gorman, poets Neruda and
Paz, and a series of writers such as Walcott, Marque z, Twain,
Heming way, Faulkner, Williams and Borges, are all examples of
unique hemispheric voices in the arts.)
The environment of the hemisphere has substantial resources, but
these are being degraded rapidly throughout the hemisphere and
as other nations apparently discover these resources, the
acceleration increases. Fish resources have been decimated in the
last century first in the Caribbean, then north Atlantic, and now
north and middle Pacific. Fisheries are sustainable only in the far
south of South America according to several sources . The three
major forests of the hemisphere which have had major attention,
but still are not sustainable ( in south and Central America ) and
need better management as well as restoration.
Health issues are very important to the well being of the
population and its productivity. The high inf ant and maternal
mortality in northern Central America and the Andes plus Haiti
need intensive concentration to correct. This is partly poor
drinking water conditions and lack of partly hygiene education
with overpopulation plus little or no maternal and infant health
care. The industrialized citizen’s futures includes a series of
improved technologies such as gene therapy, gro wing organs for
transplant and nanotechnology therapies, as well as increased and
necessary attention to modifying behavior which induces diseases (
Smoking, alcoholism, obesity, lack of exercise , heart disease, ).
Longevity throughout the hemisphere increases about 5 to 7 years
with women living several years longer than men disregardless of
nation, or poverty level.
The work now begins of citizens changing their lives to sustainable
patterns throughout the Western Hemisphere.




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XIX.LITERATURE CITED

XX.APPENDICIES
  1.) Lists of Committee members and
      affiliations.
  2.) Lists of National Associations of the
      Club of Rome in the Western
      Hemisphere.
  3.) List of Native American tribes and
      their locations
  4.) The IF model . Projections for the
      Western Hemisphere.
  5.) Projections of infant mortality in the
      9 highest mortality nation, vs.
      Canada
  6.) Lists of governance statistics for
  7.) Energy Reserves of the hemisphere
  8.)
LIST OF FIGURES.
LIST OF MAPS
  1.) Forests of the American Hemisphere
  2.) Fresh and ground water of the
      hemisphere.
  3.) Remote sensing imagery of the
      hemisphere.
  4.) Maps of the American Hemisphere (
      population, urban centers, minerals,
      fisheries, marine resources, energy
      sources,
   MAPS SHOWING GEOLOGY, OIL AND GAS FIELDS AND
 GEOLOGIC PROVINCES OF THE SOUTH AMERICA REGION.
                               Compiled by
    Christopher J. Schenk, Roland J. Viger, and Christopher P. Anderson




                                                                          117
   Map showing geology, oil and gas fields and geologic provinces
                   of The South America Region
            Click on a map area to Zoom-in on Provinces.

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       5.)




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   Competitor                    Current Share      Share in 3 Yrs.

   Largest competitor            50%                30%

   Second largest competitor     25%                20%

   Third largest competitor      15%                12%

   Projected Growth of Competitors


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