Space Tourism for Europe A Case Study

Space Tourism for Europe: A Case Study Michael W. LaCroix ABSTRACT • This paper discusses the long-range perspectives for commercial passenger transportation into Low Earth Orbit ( LEO ): a European Space Tourism Initiative. Southern Spain is introduced as a potential location for Spaceport Europe' from which commercial space trips would be conducted. Based on a market model for a thirty-year time span (2020 to 2050), three different market growth scenarios are developed (no growth; low growth; high growth). These concepts introduce a launch vehicle design which comprises the best features of current European launch vehicle projects (eg SÄNGER, STS-2000) that promise a significant reduction in recurring costs. Technological variables of the transportation system and the infrastructure as well as transportation demand trends have been used as input for an integrated operations and cost model. Computer simulation of passenger transport within the given time span produced cost trends which promise specific transportation costs of as low as $60,000 (1990 values) per seat. Admittedly, such cost figures require very high passenger numbers that might be beyond any real demand. Space Tourism for Europe • It has been a European company that pioneered space tourism: as early as 1954, Thomas Cook in Britain, the world's oldest travel company, initiated the 'Moon Register', a list where enthusiasts can sign an option for a commercial trip to the moon. The company guarantees to provide tickets at the earliest possible date. Despite the fact that Thomas Cook did not advertise the register, over 1,000 people have enlisted to date. In 1992, the launch of a Moon Register' campaign in Germany drew over 2,000 people to sign up within a couple of months. At present, still no opportunities exist for booking commercial space trips, either in Europe or anywhere else. In view of a European Common Market of almost 400 million citizens with an average GNP per capita of about $20,000 (1992), one must admit that the relative market potential for commercial space trips is promising. So the question is, what has to be done to build up a European space tourism industry? • • Launch Vehicle Technology • Optimal vehicle layout for commercial utilization requires a 'design for operations'. This means that top priority has to be given to the reduction of recurring costs and to vehicle safety. It is a fact that currently evaluated European concepts of advanced HTOHL (Horizontal Take-Off, Horizontal Landing) launch vehicles support these objectives. They even promise to provide the required technology for future passenger launch systems, although this is not yet the focus of interest. Launch Vehicle Technology Launch Vehicle Technology • The trigger for the current favoring of a winged concept for the next century's European launcher was provided by various research efforts in the 1980s: the work done in the UK on HOTOL was followed later on by the start of the German SÄNGER program and the French STS-2000. All these presently fragmented R&D efforts are likely to be merged into one single joint European launcher project. ESA is trying to pave the way for this with FESTIP (Future European Space Transportation Evaluation Program). At present, the agency conducts "a general assessment study to decide whether or not reusable launchers, in their various possible designs, are the way to go to facilitate access to space." (8) Recent surveys concerning the development strategy for future commercial passenger transportation show that a two-stage HTOHL is likely to lay the foundation for the first European passenger orbiter. (1,2,5) After all, Europe once demonstrated technological excellence with Concorde and such a vehicle would appear to be a logical evolutionary step. Among all concepts named above, SäNGER is by far the best documented design (see Fig. 1). It has also been suggested for space tourism before.(1,5) A Sänger -type vehicle (STV) such as a 2-stage HTOHL launch vehicle with around 40 passengers and a launch mass of under 400Mg would provide the potential design for space tourism purposes. Political will provided, such a hypersonic vehicle could be ready for commercial operations in the year 2020. The relevant technical data of the Sänger vehicle is shown in the next slide. (including the product improvement). Launch Vehicle Technology Year Configuration Stages Passengers Crew Launch Mass Net Mass Propellant Mass Propulsion 1. Stage Engines 1. Stage Propulsion 2. Stage Engines 2. Stage Launch Rate 1. St. Lifetime Launch Rate 2. St. Lifetime [no] [LpA] [launche s] [LpA] [launche s] 50 450 25 150 [no] [no] [pers] [pers] [Mg] [Mg] [Mg] 36 4 2020 2050 HTOHL 2 43 4 366.00 184.7 178.1 Airbreather 6 Rocket 1 144 850 55 240 Spaceport Europe • Europe is densely populated and its southernmost regions are still relatively remote from the equator. So, during the history of spaceflight European authorities have been forced to conduct launch operations overseas, in remote places like Hammaguir (Algeria), San Marco Equatorial Range (Kenya), Woomera (Australia) and Kourou (French Guiana). In view of increasing launch rates, the logistics for the support of a spaceport overseas might become too expensive. By operating an HTOHL launch vehicle one gains the ability to conduct missions from the European mainland. This new opportunity leads to the concept of a Spaceport Europe'. Such a concept comprises airport facilities optimized for ground operations of hypersonic transports, for vehicle refurbishment and in situ LOX / LH2 -production. The optimal location for such a facility would be the Southern tip of Spain. Spaceport Europe Spaceport Europe • • • • • • The arguments in favor of such a location are: In situ solar powered propellant production is well served by the extremely sunny weather Southern Spain is relatively close to the equator (36.5° North). A wide range of launch azimuths lead over open water or uninhabited areas in Northern Africa. The glide paths of upper stage vehicles returning from orbit come in from over the open waters of the Atlantic. Almost unknown to the public, there is already a place in Europe that is near perfect for serving as a base for a future spaceport: the former Rota Naval Air Station near Cádiz, Spain Spaceport Europe Market Development • Most critical for a flourishing space tourism market is low-cost transportation. As one can easily imagine, demand is a function of ticket price. The lower the ticket price, the more people want to fly into space. A first survey on the potential world-wide demand for LEO space tourism was undertaken in 1985 by Society Expeditions of Seattle, USA. The company's quantitative findings are depicted as graphical function in the next slide. Market Development Market Development Market Development Market Development Cost Model • • • • Computer simulation of passenger operations within the given time horizon produced cost trends and allowed clues to potential cost reductions. The estimation of cost parameters vs. time applied a statistical-analytical method which is based on the Trans-cost' model by D.E. Koelle.7 Some of the original Trans-cost equations were adapted, while most Cost Estimation Relationships (CERs) were either customized' or newly developed to handle a couple of special cases which were not taken into account by the original model. Most modifications concerned the hardware costs. The prime objective of cost analysis within this study has been the assessment of specific transport costs ($ per seat per flight). The specific cost equals total cost (overall operations cost) divided by numbers of passengers. The overall operations costs are split into five cost elements. These comprise direct operations cost, indirect operations cost, vehicle amortization cost, launch site/range cost and cost for maintenance and refurbishment. Specific Transportation Costs Bridging the "Price Gap" • After having seen that demand for space tourism could probably fall short of the costs of the space tourism sector, one has to ask oneself what could be done to bridge the "price gap" shown in Fig. 9? The answer is easy, either the launch system operations become less expensive or the potential customers become wealthier. Since the first option is out of the question hope of an even better vehicle than a Sänger -type vehicle coming out of Europe within the next decades seems to be completely unfounded a sensitivity analysis of Society Expedition's demand curve has been conducted. Different levels of wealth increase within the target group (high income people: HIP) have been assumed and the resulting overall demand (devoted to space tourism) as a function of passenger throughput has been plotted together with the overall costs. The year of reference is 1990. As one can see, the No Growth Scenario requires only about 1% per year increase in real purchasing power (from 1990 on) for reaching the demand/supply-equilibrium. • "Price Gap" "Price Gap" "Price Gap" Pricing • Pricing is the most important issue in the high-risk world of commercial space. The strong interdependence between ticket price and space transportation demand as mentioned before makes this clear.(1) Any pricing strategy has to take into account the negative effect high profitability leading to rising prices could have on demand. As long as the premise is to initiate a new market for manned space transportation systems in conjunction with public access to space, a high profit margin should not be the focus of interest. The dilemma with this survey is that all three scenarios promise seat costs higher than the demand price per ticket. This means losses rather than profits and leaves no room for any discussion of pricing policy. Unfortunately, such cost projections leave little leeway for space tour extras like staying in an orbital hotel or visiting an orbital recreation facility. After all, the market projections could be too pessimistic, but, whatever the real market development will be, in view of the cost digressions attainable with a Sänger -type vehicle, any future supplier of commercial space tours would most probably have to do without much profit. • • Conclusion • A European Space Tourism Initiative is feasible. Crucial is, however, to strive for this goal. ESA 's FESTIP program and its successors will hopefully produce an Advanced Launch Vehicle that could be used for Commercial Space Tours. Rota Airport is also there and could be converted into a real European Spaceport for Aerospace Planes and other HTOHL vehicles. The economic feasibility calls for a small initial market volume, say 2 to 4 launches per year, and then a slow growth towards a balanced market, whatever its volume may be. An additional space tour lottery might prove to be a liable way to balance possible price gaps; furthermore a lottery would attract far more people to the subject of space tourism than the space tour business itself. Admittedly, the given cost calculations do not leave much room for goodies like orbital hotels. So European Space Tours will most probably be limited to day trips into LEO . A day trip here means 5 - 8 orbits and up to 12 hours of flight duration. Nevertheless, space tourism offers a bold, positive vision for Europe's future in space. • • References 1. S Abitzsch and F Eilingsfeld , 1992, "The Prospects for Space Tourism: Investigation on the Economic and Technological Feasibility of Commercial Passenger Transportation into Low Earth Orbit ", Preprint IAA -92-0155. David Ashford and Patrick Collins , 1990, "Your Spaceflight Manual: How You Could Be A Tourist in Space Within Twenty Years ", London: Headline P Q Collins and D M Ashford , 1998, "Potential Economic Implications of the Development of Space Tourism ", Acta Astronautica 17: 421-431. Patrick Q Collins , 1989, " Stages in the Development of Low Earth Orbit Tourism ", SpaceTechnology 9: 315-323 Dietrich E Koelle and Wolfgang Kleinau , 1989, " Man-into-Orbit Transportation Cost: History and Outlook ", Preprint IAF -89-695 Dietrich E Koelle and Heribert Kuczera , 1990, " SÄNGER Space Transportation System: Progress Report 1990 ", Preprint IAF -90-175 Dietrich Koelle , 1991, " TRANSCOST Statistic-Analytical Model for Cost Estimation and Economic Optimization of Space Transportation Systems ", M ünchen: MBB -Report URV-185 M Pfeffer, June 1993, 'ESA studies future launchers: The winged launcher configuration studies' Reaching for the Skies 8: 1-3 'Tourismus größter Arbeitgeber', Der Tagesspiegel 14183: 47, 26 April 1992 Christiane Wronski (Marketing & Public Relations Representative of Thomas Cook Germany), Personal Communication, 6 March 1993. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.