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									          Telecommunications
       Industry Association (TIA)
                Webinar

 How Will Smart Devices Drive Mobile
           Growth in 2010?
                    TIA’s
  Analysis Based on TIA s 2010 ICT Market Review & Forecast

Presented by TIA President Grant Seiffert, TIA Vice President for
   Technology and Business Development Cheryl Blum and
                   Economist Arthur Gruen
                           3-5 Year Forecast and
                              Global in Scope
    •     p produced by TIA annually since 1986
        Report p           y          y
    •   Economists Wilkofsky-Gruen Associates
    •   Online version through TelecomTV
    •   Segments information by:
        – Geography (U.S., international, global)
        – Sectors & services:
            •   Landline
            •   Wireless
            •   Enterprise
                      p
            •   Network equipment
            •   Broadband
            •   VoIP
            •   Data transport
            •   Internet access
2
               Global Market Forecast




    • Mobiledata-services demand skyrocketing
    • Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) principal driver
3
                    Mobile Market Drivers

      Post-recession          2010-13
    • Post recession recovery 2010 13 dominant driver for
      next four years
    • Growing demand for high-volume data applications
      d i i all segments
      driving ll        t
    • Smartphone sales booming
    • Demand pushes rollout of 4G networks




4
                Wireless Market Overview




        • Key takeaways

    Wireless revenue will total an estimated $278B in 2013
    from $215B in 2009, a 6.6% compound annual increase.
5
              U.S. Wireless Subscribers




    Wireless penetration will increase from nearly 90% in
         to      than          f the     l ti by 2013.
    2009 t more th 95% of th population b 2013
6
             Wireless Services Revenue




    Wireless services spending to average 6.9% growth
    on a compound annual basis through 2013, estimated
    to total $211B.
7
    Mobile Internet Demand

     Data-related
     Data related spending nearly doubled
     during the past two years, rising to
     $43 billion in 2009 from only $23.2
     billion in 2007 and $12.3 billion in
     2006.




8
                 U.S. Wireless Services
                 Revenue by C t
                 R         b Category




                                           p     g
    Data will account for 44% of services spending
    in 2013.
9
                    Wireless Monthly ARPU




     Reversing the long-term trend, ARPU growth during
                   y                 p     p
     the next four years will be the principal driver of overall
     spending growth.
10
               Smartphones Sales Booming




       • Key facts
     Smartphones will account for 41 percent of unit sales in
     2013 from 25.3 percent in 2009.
11
                    Equipment Revenue




     Overall wireless equipment and infrastructure
      p      g
     spending will total $23.3B in 2013 from $17.3B in
     2009, increasing at a 7.7% compound annual rate.
12
               Wireless Device Revenue




     Revenue is expected to grow by 2.5% on a
                                                $22B.
     compound annual rate through 2013 reaching $22B
13
           Tower Demand


     The growing use of
     smartphones is driving a
                        usage,
     surge in bandwidth usage
     requiring more antennas for a
     given area and creating
     demand for additional cell
     towers.




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               M2M Communications Growth

     • Subscriber base – including DoD and a variety of
       industries – is growing for M2M asset monitoring
       applications
                       i i         k    d     i     fixed d
     • M2M communications tracks and monitors fi d and
       mobile assets, including trucks, ships, pipelines and
             y       ,
       utility meters, around the world
     • ORBCOMM announced agreement in 2009 to provide
       services through a major CDMA wireless provider in the
       US
       U.S.
     • Satellite growth fueled by the continued use of satellites
                         g
       for asset tracking and remote M2M communications

15
              Smart Device Communications
                 d St d d D      l     t
               and Standards Development
       TIA s
     • TIA’s Smart Device Communications Engineering
       Committee (TR-50) launched in Dec. 2009
     • Scope approved last week for committee to develop and
          i t i “               ti interface standards “ f
       maintain “access agnostic i t f        t d d for
       smart device communications
     • Participants include: Alcatel-Lucent, Cisco, Ericsson,
       ILS Technology, Intel, Intercon Systems, IRG Energy,
       Lantiq, LG, Microsoft, Mitsubishi Electric, Motorola,
                                               g
       Nokia, Numerex, Qualcomm, Samsung, SkyTerra  y
       Communications, Sprint, Tyco Electronics, UL, Verizon
       Wireless, VIA Telecom, VoCAL, WirefreeCom and
       WK3C Wireless

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                 Broad Scope for Smart Device
                  Communications St d d
                  C       i ti    Standards
     TIA TR-50 standards to address these functional areas:
     •   Requirements
     •   System Architecture
     •   Cross-Industry Communication
         Cross Industry
     •   Leverage Existing (and future) Physical Infrastructure
     •   Information Models (State Diagrams)
     •            (e.g.,    Content,
         Security (e g Data Content Mutual Authentication)
     •   End to End Performance and Scalability of Equipment and
         Networks
     •   Network Management/Operations
         N t    kM            t/O     ti
     •   Device Management (including discovery and identity)
     •   Protocols
     •   Minimum Performance, Conformance and Interoperability Testing
17
                 More Wireless Standards
                      Development


     • TIA’s TR-45 writes mobile and
       personal communications
       systems standards
     • CDMA2000 is TIA’s registered
       trademark
       t d     k
     • TIA’s STAR – Standards and
                gy   p     p
       Technology Report – published
       annually



18
     More on Other Sectors Soon




19
                     Research Methodology

                                         third party
     1. Reference unbiased, respected third-party sources
     2. Identify underlying economic, technological, regulatory
        and competitive factors
     3. Develop models to quantify impact of factors on industry
        revenues
     4 Create forecast scenario for each causative factor and
     4.
        assign relative significance weight
     5. Apply proprietary mathematical models and algorithms to
        compute range of prospective results
     6. Tune the results based on professional expertise and
        institutional knowledge
20
                             How To Order

        TIA s
        TIA’s 2010 ICT Market
        Review & Forecast
        Mobile and Wireless
        Communications
        Chapter Is Available
        Today




     http://www.tiaonline.org/market_intelligence/mrf/index.cfm


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                 World Recognized
          TIA: A World-Recognized Authority

                 ,         p
     Since 1924, TIA has represented the gglobal information
     and communications technology (ICT) industry
     Works through Policy, Standards, Environment,
     Intelligence and N t
     I t lli                ki
                    d Networking
     3,000 TIA standards developed, including:
         New Committee: Smart Communications Devices
         Data centers and Cat 5/Cat 6 cabling
         Cell towers and CDMA technologygy
         CALEA and P25
         Ethernet

22
                      TIA Board of Directors
               Recognized leadership
               Advances association mission

                          Alcatel Lucent
     ACS | ADC | ADTRAN | Alcatel-Lucent | ANDA Networks | AttivaCorp |
       Avaya | Bechtel Communications, Inc. | Cisco Systems | Corning
      Incorporated | Ericsson, Inc. | GENBAND, Inc. | Graybar | Henkels &
     McCoy     Technology | I t l C
     M C | ILS T h l                      Intersect, I | LGE | Mi
                            Intel Corp. | I t     t Inc.|             ft
                                                               Microsoft |
         Motorola | Nokia Siemens Networks | Nortel | Openwave, Inc. |
        Panasonic Computer Solutions Co. | Powerwave Technologies|
        Qualcomm | Research In Motion | Sumitomo Electric Lightwave
     Corporation | Tellabs | Tyco Electronics | Ulticom, Inc. | Verari Systems
                                                    y
      Advisors to the Board: FAL Associates | Orca Systems | Telcordia
                                  Technologies
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     TIA s
     TIA’s Policy Agenda




24
        Thank You!

      Contact TIA at
     msnyder@tiaonline.org
     msn der@tiaonline org



                     g
         tiaonline.org

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