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					                                 The Tasmanian

t rends                          Labour Market
                                 Review
                      Labour Economics Office                                                                   August 2006
   •   Employment steady at 225,100
   •   Unemployment rate down slightly to 6.2%
   •   Participation rate steady at 61.1%

       Note: All Labour Force estimates are
                                               Male unemployment increased by around 1,500
       from the Australian Bureau of           over the year, contrasting with a 1,200 fall in
       Statistics’ Labour Force Survey and     female    unemployment.         The    current
       are Trend estimates unless              unemployment rate in Tasmania is 6.2%, the
       otherwise stated.
                                               same as it was last August.       The current
                                               national unemployment rate is 4.8%, while in
         Employment                            other States, NSW recorded a rate of 5.4%, Vic
                                               4.8%, Qld 4.5%, SA 4.8%, and WA 3.3%.
   Total employment in Tasmania
   remained virtually unchanged
   over the month to August, but                                            Male & Female Participation Rates-Tasmania

   was 2.0% higher than it was in
   August last year.      Full-time             72.0

   employment grew by 2.3% over
   the last 12 months, while part-              67.0

   time employment increased by                 62.0
   1.4%. Total male employment
                                                                         Male
                                                                         Female
   fell marginally over the month,              57.0
   but was 0.2% higher than it
   was in August last year. There               52.0

   was a 1.8% fall in male part-
   time employment, but this was                47.0
                                                       Aug-96


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                                                                                                                Aug-02


                                                                                                                         Aug-03


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                                                                                                                                           Aug-05


                                                                                                                                                    Aug-06
   off-set by a 0.6% rise in full-
   time employment. Total female
   employment continues to reach
   record highs, and is now 4.2%                       Labour Force & Participation
   higher than it was in August                        Rates
   last year. This increase was                The number of people in the Tasmanian labour
   made up of a 5.7% rise in full-             force is currently estimated to be 240,000,
   time female employment, and a               which is about 2.0% higher than it was a year
   2.7%     rise   in    part-time             ago. The number of males increased by 1,700,
   employment.                                 while the female labour force grew by 3,000 over
                                               the year.    Participation rates in August were
         Unemployment                          61.1%, up from 60.3% in August last year.
                                               Female participation rates reached record levels
   The    total   number      of               at 55.0%, while male participation rates were
   unemployed in Tasmania is                   marginally above what they were in August last
   currently 14,900, which is a                year, but have started to fall in recent months.
   slight fall on the number                   The graph above shows that, over time, male
   recorded last month, but is a               and female participation rates are moving closer
   1.8% increase on the figure                 together.   The national participation rate in
   recorded in August last year.               August was 65.0%.

  Feature Article                             TASMANIA’S INDUSTRIES (PART 2)

  Department of Employment & Workplace Relations, Level 12 188 Collins St, Hobart Tas-
  mania 7000, GPO Box 9879, Hobart, Telephone (03) 6222 9832     Facsimile (02) 6234
  9203
2

           Labour Force Estimates - Tasmania                                                             DEWR's Skilled Vacancy Survey Index (trend)
                      (Trend data)                                                                       fell by 7.1% over the month, but by 31.8% over
                                                         Aug-2005           Jul-2006            Aug-2006 the year, in Tasmania. Nationally it fell by 3.2%
                                                          000's              000's               000's   over the month and by 6.8% over the year.
Employment                                                                                                                                         Other Indicators
Male                                                      119.8                120.4                    120.1   Building Approvals in Tasmania increased by
Female                                                    100.8                104.5                    105.0   3.3% over the month of July, and are now 16.7%
Full-time                                                 150.1                153.4                    153.6   higher than they were a year ago. There have
Part-time                                                  70.6                 71.6                     71.5   now been 3 consecutive months of growth,
Persons                                                   220.7                225.0                    225.1   following the previous 15 months of decline in
Unemployment                                                                                                    the figures. Nationally, the series increased by
Male                                                           7.9                  9.5                  9.4
Female                                                         6.7                  5.6                  5.5                                   Building Approvals, Tas and Aust, 1996 to
Persons                                                       14.6                  15.1                14.9                                                     2006

Labour Force                                                                                                     300                                                                                                               18000
Male                                                      127.8                129.9                    129.5                                                                                     Australia (RHS)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   16000
Female                                                    107.5                110.2                    110.5    250
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   14000
Persons                                                   235.3                240.1                    240.0
                                                                                                                 200                                                                                                               12000
Unemployment Rate %
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   10000
Male                                                           6.2                  7.3                  7.3     150
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   8000
Female                                                         6.2                  5.1                  4.9
Persons
                                                                                                                 100        Tasmania (LHS)                                                                                         6000
                                                               6.2                  6.3                  6.2
Full-time Teenage*                                            19.7                  14.9                24.5     50
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   4000

Participation Rate %                                                                                                                                                                                                               2000

Male                                                          67.0                  67.7                67.5      0                                                                                                                0
                                                                                                                       Jul-96


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                                                                                                                                                             Jul-00


                                                                                                                                                                      Jul-01


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                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jul-04


                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jul-05


                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jul-06
Female                                                        53.9                  54.8                55.0
Persons                                                       60.3                  61.1                61.1
    *unadjusted data
                                                                                                                2.4% over the month, and by 4.4% over the year.
              Job Vacancies                                                                                     The Consumer Price Index for Hobart rose by
                                                                                                                1.2% over the quarter to June 2006, and by
    The ANZ Bank Job Advertisement series                                                                       3.5% over the year. These figures are slightly
    (trend) for August increased by 0.9% over the                                                               below the national average, which increased by
    month, but was still 2.9% below the figure                                                                  1.6% over the quarter, and by 4.0% over the
    recorded in August last year. Nationally the                                                                year.
    series fell by 0.2% over the month, and by
    3.4% over the year..                                                                                                 Newstart & Youth Allowees

                    ANZ job vacancies & DEWR Skilled Vacancy Series- Tasmania 1996-
                                                2006                                                            Benefit recipients (Newstart & Youth Allow-
     600                                                                                                        ances) - Tasmania
                                            Tas ANZ
     500
                                            Tas SVS
                                                                                                                                                   < 1 2>     12                                               % >                     12
     400                                                                                                                                           months months Total                                         months
     300                                                                                                        July-2005                           4,478             9,542             14,020                    68.1%
     200                                                                                                        July-2006                           4,607             9147              13,754                    66.5%
     100                                                                                                        Number dif-
      0
                                                                                                                ference (ann.)                        129             -395              -266
           Jul-96


                     Jul-97


                              Jul-98


                                       Jul-99


                                                Jul-00


                                                         Jul-01


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                                                                                               Jul-05




                                                                                                                % difference                        2.9%              -4.1%             -1.9%
3

                                   TASMANIA’S INDUSTRIES (PART 2)

    Introduction
    The following article is the second in a series that will look at Tasmania’s industries,
    largely from an employment perspective. It examines how they have changed over time,
    both in terms of structure, such as growth of part-time work or gender split for example,
    and in terms of overall numbers. This article will look at industries in Tasmania that
    employ more than 10,000 people but less than 20,000. The following graph shows the
    industries in question, and their employment levels over the last 10 years.
    Property & Business Services
    This industry covers a diverse range of activities, and has been Tasmania’s fastest growing

                                    Employment by selected industries in Tas (000s)

    20.0

    18.0

    16.0

    14.0                                                                              Property and Business Services
                                                                                      Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
    12.0
                                                                                      Construction
    10.0                                                                              Education
                                                                                      Government Administration and Defence
     8.0
                                                                                      Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants
     6.0                                                                              Personal and Other Services
     4.0

     2.0

     0.0
       1996   1997   1998   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006




    industry over the last 10 years, with 7,600 jobs created between May 1996 and May 2006.
    The areas covered by this industry include, real estate agents, computer services, legal
    and accounting services, cleaning services, and business services not elsewhere classified,
    which includes call centres.
    Tasmania’s economy has expanded significantly in the first few years of the 21st century,
    and this has created additional demand for businesses services, such as accounting
    services, for example. The growth in the real estate industry is most likely to have been
    driven by Tasmania’s property boom between about 2001 and mid 2005. Finally, the call
    centre industry is one which has been growing in Tasmania for some years, with a recent
    State Government report stating that around 5,500 Tasmanians are employed in call
    centres. Further employment growth of 16% predicted over the coming year.
    Agriculture forestry & fishing
    Agriculture, forestry and fishing is Tasmania’s fifth largest employing industry, with
    around 16,500 people employed as at May 2006. Employment in this industry has fallen
    by 7.8% over the last 10 years, most likely due to factors such as, increasing
    mechanisation in harvesting and production methods, rationalisation, particularly in the
    farming sector, where larger, corporately owned farms are tending to replace smaller
    family owned and operated businesses.
    Around 74% of employees in this industry group are males, and just over 70% of all
    workers are employed full-time. There is a significant seasonal element to this industry
    group, and even though annual averages have been used to minimise data volatility, it is
    likely that there are peaks in employment over the summer and autumn periods that are
    not necessarily picked up by the labour force survey.
4

    Education
    Coverage of this industry group ranges from pre-school education to universities and TAFE. The graph
    above shows that over the last quarter, construction replaced education as the sixth largest employing
    industry in Tasmania, but this is likely to be a short-term trend, with construction employment
    subject to significant variations over time.
    In May 2006 approximately 37% of the education workforce was employed part-time, compared to
    32.1% for the total workforce. Around 68% of the education workforce were female, compared to 46%
    of the total workforce.
    The trend over the last 10 years in education employment has been positive, with employment growth
    of 6.7% between May 1996 and May 2006. However, there are a number of issues facing the
    education sector generally relating to a falling number of school aged children, with numbers predicted
    to fall even more over the next few years. Against this backdrop, there are also claims that the current
    teacher population is ageing, and so will need to be replaced in a relatively short period of time.
    Employment in the TAFE sector may well increase in response to industry demands to address skill
    shortages, for example. In addition, debates about class sizes can affect demand for teachers. The
    complex interaction of all these factors will affect whether or not the positive trends of employment in
    the education industry will continue into the future.
    Government Administration and Defence
    This industry classification covers local government and State and Commonwealth government
    employees, where their main activities relate to formulating and administering government policy. So,
    for example, nurses employed in public hospitals would be classified under the health and community
    services industry, despite the fact that they are State Government employees. Similarly, road
    construction crews working for local councils would be classified under the construction industry,
    rather than this industry classification.
    Total employment in government administration and defence declined by 21.6% between May 1996
    and May 2006. Given the diverse range of influences affecting the different levels of government, it is
    difficult to generalise about the reasons for this. However, the trend to outsource “non-core” functions
    to the private sector, and resource sharing and rationalisation at the local government level, are likely
    to be significant contributing factors.


                                         (to be continued next month)


                          ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN AUGUST 2006
    4th   Aug   State-owned energy retailer Aurora Energy has announced staff cuts of 20, with the
                redundancies coming mainly from middle-management positions. (The Examiner)
    4th Aug     Two major apple growers in the Huon Valley, south of Hobart, have announced they are
                leaving the area, resulting in the loss of about 60 full-time jobs and 100 seasonal jobs.
                Driessen Brothers have chosen to leave the industry as they claim it has poor prospects,
                while Reid Fruits has chosen to relocate to Plenty, north-west of Hobart and to
                concentrate on growing cherries. The area around Plenty has lower rainfall than the Huon
                Valley, and therefore there is less chance of the cherries being damaged by rain at harvest
                time. (The Mercury)
    10th Aug    The current Minister for Human Services, Mr Joe Hockey, has been appointed to a new
                position of Minister assisting the Minister for Workplace Relations. (The Mercury)
    11th Aug    The State Government launched a program yesterday to help young ex-offenders into the
                workforce. Justice Minister Steven Kons announced that the Supported Employment
                Programme would train participants in key industry skills and placed in jobs with ongoing
                support. It is anticipated that 12 young people will be assisted by the program each year.
                (The Burnie Advocate)


                This report contains material of a speculative nature and therefore should
                be used with caution. The Commonwealth, its officers, employees or
                agents disclaim any responsibility for any loss howsoever caused whether
                due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of this report
5
    16th Aug   A leading southern Tasmanian baker, Maypole Foods, has been placed into
               receivership, owing an estimated $2.3m. The business employs around 65
               permanent and casual staff at Glenorchy in the northern suburbs of
               Hobart. The receivers have indicated that the business will continue to
               trade, and that a number of expressions of interest for the business had
               already been received. (The Mercury)
    22nd Aug A new campaign has been started by teacher aides in Tasmania to give
             them and other support staff a full year’s pay. Currently they are only
             paid for 40 or 42 weeks of the year. (The Mercury)
    23rd Aug   The Minister for Workplace Relations, Mr Kevin Andrews announced an
               extension of the General Employee Entitlements and Redundancy scheme
               (GEERS). The scheme is designed to pay redundancy entitlements to
               employees of companies that go into liquidation. The changes announced
               mean that workers can get 16 weeks redundancy pay, rather than the 8
               weeks that was available to them previously. (The Burnie Advocate)
    25th Aug   Vestas, a company which manufactures and assembles components for
               wind farms, has announced it will close its plant in Wynyard, north-west
               Tasmania, by the end of the year. The factory’s closure is attributed to a
               lack of demand for wind farm turbines, and will result in the loss of about
               65 jobs. (The Mercury)
    29th Aug   The Spirit of Tasmania III, which has operated between Sydney and
               Devonport since January 2004, completed its final sailing yesterday and
               berthed in Devonport for the last time. (The Mercury)




           This report contains material of a speculative nature and therefore should
           be used with caution. The Commonwealth, its officers, employees or
           agents disclaim any responsibility for any loss howsoever caused whether
           due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of this report

				
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