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					                     Methods for evaluating freshwater
                            ecosystem services
                      in support of decision making


David Yates (RAP), Claudia Tebaldi (CGD), Kathleen Miller (ESIG), Susi Moser (ESIG)

Other Collaborators:
David Purkey, Natural Heritage Institute, Sacramento California
Hector Galbraith, University of Colorado, Boulder
Annette Huber-Lee, SEI/Tellus, MIT Boston
Others.. (University of California Davis and Stanford University)
    Physical Hydrology




    Watershed
    Management

                                               Decisions:
                         Integrated            •Sykes Reservoir
   Climate &              Decision             •FERC Relicensing
Climate Change            Support              •Conjunctive Use
                                               •System Operations
                         credibility     relevancy

  Socio-Economics


                                  legitimacy
                                               Decision-Makers
        Ecosystem                              •CALFED
         Services                              •State Assembly
                                               •California Water Dept
                                               •Others
Integrating framework placed in the context
         of a “Trade-off” landscape

                                             Water for nature
 Water for agriculture



                         Water quantity
                         Water quality
                       Seasonality of flow         Domestic water
                          Regulation



Water for recreation                  Water for industry
  Physical Hydrology and Water
          Management


Seamlessly integrating
watershed hydrologic
processes with water
resources management.
         Ecosystem services

                     H2O
                                  Ecosystem
Ecosystem Service   Quantity
                    Quality       •components
                                                Goods and
                                                Services
                    Seasonality   •processes
  Evaluation        Governance
         Ecosystem services

                            H2O
                                                  Ecosystem
Ecosystem Service          Quantity
                           Quality                •components
                                                                        Goods and
                                                                        Services
                           Seasonality            •processes
  Evaluation               Governance




                                                                    Flood/Drought
                                         Wetland – water flow
                                         slowed by:
                    Seasonal flooding    •Low gradient
                     1st Order Decay     •Hydrophilic soils        Biodiversity/Rec
                     Channelization      •Channel morphology
                                         •Plant roots and leaves
                                         •Land use planning
                                                                   Water purification
           Ecosystem services in the SFBW

                            Extractable; Direct Use; Indirect Use
         Har-     Water      Recre-   Trans   Power    Regen.      Nutr.    Flood/   Water     Ero-   Habitat
         vest.   for ag.,    ation,   -port   gener.    of soil    cycl-   drought   purifi-   sion      /
         biota   urban,      aesth.                    fertility    ing     mitig.   cation    con-   biodi-
                 indust.     beauty                                                            trol   versity



Upper              
                                                                           
                                                                                                       
Rivers

Lower                                                                                         
Rivers


 Delta                                                                                         
                    
  Bay                                                                             
                                                                                                        
     Climate and climate change

 Bayesian model gives
                              WNA
 regional distributions of
 seasonal changes




But what is needed are
high resolution time series
for the entire watershed
           The Inter-Disciplinary Framework


      Ecosystem Service                                      Scenario
S      Prioritization and                                  Development:
t          Selection                                    Climate, Land, Pop
a
k
e     Ecosystem Service
h    Assessment Properties
ol                                                                           A
           (ESAPs)
d                                                                            D
e                                                                            A
r                                                                            P
      Ecosystem Service                                 Water Resources      T
P     Indicators/Params                                    Modeling          A
r          (ESIPs)                                                           T
o                                                                            I
c                            ESIP/model estimate                             O
e                                 variance                                   N
s
s
                    Translation Functions
                          (Models)                 Change in Eco
                                                      Service
          Stylized schematic of Sacramento
                                                                                                        (garnering credibility)



                                                                                                 McCloud                        N. Pit
                  Clear
                                                      Shasta
Trinity
                      Whiskey                                                     Pit
                      town
                                                                                                               Pit Virt
                                                                                                               Res             Upper Pit


            Cotton-                                                            Cow
            Wood
                                                                               Battle
           Thomes                                                                                    Almanor
                                                                               Chico
                      Tehema




     Black
     Butte                                                                     Butte
                                                                                                     Upper
  Clear                                                                                              Feather
                               Colusa




                                                                                 Feather
                                                       Sutter Bypass




                                                                                 Oroville Bullards
                                                                                          Bar            Yuba

                                                                                              Bear

          Cache                                                                        Coon
                                                                                                               Upper American
                                                                                                                                              Sacramento River Basin:
          Putah                                               Sacramento
                                                              Weir
                                                                                              Folsom           Lower American                 • 50+ watersheds
                                                                                                                                              • Reservoirs
                                        Yolo Bypass




                                                                                                                  Groundwater
                                                            Sacramento River




                                                                                                                                              • Central Valley Groundwater
                                                                                                                  Irrigated Agriculture
                                                                                                                  Rivers and Tributaries
                                                                                                                  Inter-Basin Transfer

                                                                                                                  Reservoir                   • Canals and Diversions
                                                                                                                  M&I Water
                  Delta
                                                                               San Joaquin
                                                                                                                  Demand
                                                                                                                  Instream Flow Requirement
                                                                                                                                              Demands:
                                                                               Inflows                                                        • Ag. & Urban Atm.
                                                                                                                                              • Municipal and Industrial
                                                                                                                                              • Reserves, Instream
                                                                                                                                              • Regional Diversions
WEAP Schematic of Sacramento Watershed
WEAP Schematic of Sacramento Watershed
     Calibration and Validation

Model Evaluation (1961-1999):
1. Flows Along Mainstem and Tributaries
2. Reservoir Storage and Release
3. Trinity Diversion
4. Agricultural Water Demand
5. Groundwater Storage Trends
6. Yolo Bypass Flood Inundation
7. Sacramento River Water Temperature
Streamflow reproduction for select watershed
Reservoir Storage Reproduction
  FOLSOM Reservoir

                                                                                                                                                                     Old Operating Rule



 1.E+06

 1.E+06

 8.E+05

 6.E+05

 4.E+05                                                                  Obs
                                                                         Model
 2.E+05
                                                                         88 Rule Rev
 0.E+00
          Oct-56

                   Oct-58

                            Oct-60

                                     Oct-62

                                              Oct-64

                                                       Oct-66

                                                                Oct-68

                                                                           Oct-70

                                                                                    Oct-72

                                                                                             Oct-74

                                                                                                      Oct-76

                                                                                                               Oct-78

                                                                                                                        Oct-80

                                                                                                                                 Oct-82

                                                                                                                                          Oct-84

                                                                                                                                                   Oct-86

                                                                                                                                                            Oct-88

                                                                                                                                                                     Oct-90

                                                                                                                                                                              Oct-92

                                                                                                                                                                                       Oct-94

                                                                                                                                                                                                Oct-96

                                                                                                                                                                                                         Oct-98
                                                                                                                                                   New Operating Rule
        Presently, difficult to determine densities of
                    hydrologic variables

Probabilities of          Probabilities of change             Decisions on
Climate Change                       in                    Adaptation Planning
                          Hydrological Variables    (e.g. new storage infrastructure)




      “Joint” scenarios                 flow
        Presently, difficult to determine densities of
                    hydrologic variables

Probabilities of     Probabilities of change             Decisions on
Climate Change                  in                    Adaptation Planning
                     Hydrological Variables    (e.g. new storage infrastructure)




            P                     flow




            T              ?
Western North America Climate Scenarios




                  What is the joint probability?
CSIRO and CCC heavily weighted in determining the winter distributions
Western North America Climate Scenarios




                        But not consistent-
 These same models are given less weight for the summer distributions
A stage along the way to getting at probabilities…
          Stylized Scenarios using K-nn



                                              WmDry
                                              WmDryT2
                                              WtWnt
                                              WtWntT2
                                              WtWntT4
                                              VWtWntr
                                              VWtWntrT3




 (Yates et al. 2002)
                 Scenarios of Monthly Avg. Tmp (55 Stn, ~40 yrs)
35
                  Stylized Sacramento Climate Scenarios
30
                                          Scenarios of Monthly Avg. Tmp (55 Stn, ~40 yrs)
                     35
                                                                                                                           hist
25
                     30
                                                                                                                           WrmDry (+1.9C)
                                                                                                                           WrmDryT2 (+3.9C)
20                   25
                                                                                                                           WtWnt (+0.9C)
                     20
                                                                                                                           WtWntT2 (+3.2C)
                 C




15                   15
                                                                                                                           WtWntT4 (+5.2C)
                     10
10                                                                                                                         VWtrWnt (+3.2)
                      5
                                                                                                                           VWtWntT3 (+6.2)
                      0
5                          Oct     Nov    Dec    Jan     Feb       Mar    Apr    May    Jun     Jul     Aug    Sep


                                         Scenarios of Monthly Avg. Precip. (55 Stn., ~40 yrs)
                     300
0
     Oct   Nov        Dec
                     250          Jan      Feb         Mar         Apr     May         Jun      Jul       Aug        Sep

                     200
             mm




                     150


                     100


                     50


                      0
                            Oct    Nov     Dec    Jan        Feb    Mar    Apr    May    Jun      Jul    Aug    Sep
                                                                                                 McCloud                        N. Pit


Trinity
                  Clear


                      Whiskey
                                                      Shasta
                                                                                  Pit
                                                                                                                                                        River Flow
                      town
                                                                                                               Pit Virt
                                                                                                               Res
                                                                                                                          35
                                                                                                                               Upper Pit                Assumed No Irrigation or Storage
                                                                                                                                                 Scenarios of Monthly Avg. Tmp (55 Stn, ~40 yrs)

            Cotton-                                                            Cow
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Avg. Monthly River flows below Yolo and Sacramento
            Wood                                                                                                          30
                                                                               Battle                                                                                           8
           Thomes                                                                                    Almanor                                                                                                                                  hist
                                                                               Chico                                      25                                                    7                                                             WrmDry (+1.9C)
                      Tehema



     Black
     Butte                                                                     Butte                                                                                                                                                          WrmDryT2 (+3.9C)
                                                                                                     Upper                                                                      6
  Clear                                                                                              Feather              20                                                                                                                  WtWnt (+0.9C)




                                                                                                                                                         acre-feet x 1e6
                                                                                 Feather
                               Colusa



                                                       Sutter Bypass




                                                                                                                    C
                                                                                                                                                                                5                                                             WtWntT2 (+3.2C)
                                                                                                                          15
                                                                                  Oroville Bullards                                                                             4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              WtWntT4 (+5.2C)
                                                                                           Bar      Yuba                                                                                                                                      VWtrWnt (+3.2)
                                                                                                                          10                                                    3                                                             VWtWntT3 (+6.2)
                                                                                              Bear
                                                                                                                                                                                2
                                                                                                                          5
          Cache                                                                        Coon
                                                                                                               Upper American                                                   1
                                                                                                                          0
                                                                                                                                 Oct       Nov    Dec   Jan
                                                                                                                                                                                0 Feb   Mar  Apr  May    Jun    Jul    Aug Sep
          Putah                                               Sacramento                                       Lower American                                                       Oct   Nov Dec    Jan    Feb     Mar   Apr  May          Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep
                                                                                              Folsom
                                                              Weir
                                        Yolo Bypass


                                                            Sacramento River




                                                                                                                                                          Irrigation w/ all Available Storage
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Avg. Monthly River Flows below Yolo and Sacramento
                                                                                                                                                                                       8
                  Delta                                                                                                                                                                7
                                                                               San Joaquin
                                                                               Inflows                                                                                                 6
                                                                                                                                                                     acre-feet x 1E6   5

                                                                                                                                                                                       4

                                                                                                                                                                                       3

                                                                                                                                                                                       2

                                                                                                                                                                                       1

                                                                                                                                                                                       0
                                                                                                                                                                                           Oct    Nov   Dec   Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep
                                                                                                                       McCloud                  N. Pit


                  Trinity
                                    Clear


                                        Whiskey
                                                                        Shasta
                                                                                                     Pit
                                                                                                                                                           Water Temperature
                                        town
                                                                                                                                   Pit Virt
                                                                                                                                   Res         Upper Pit   Assumed No Irrigation or Storage
                                                                                                  Cow
                                                                                                                                                                                Sacramento @ Butte Avg. Water Temps.
                              Cotton-
                              Wood
                                                                                                  Battle
                                                                                                                                                               28
                             Thomes                                                                                      Almanor
                                                                                                  Chico                                                        24
                                        Tehema



                        Black
                        Butte                                                                     Butte
                                                                                                                         Upper
                                                                                                                         Feather                               20
                    Clear
                                                                                                    Feather                                                               threshold
                                                 Colusa



                                                                          Sutter Bypass




                                                                                                                                                           C
                                                                                                                                                               16
                                                                                                     Oroville Bullards
                                                                                                              Bar      Yuba
                                                                                                                                                               12
                                                                                                                  Bear
                                                                                                                                                                8
                            Cache                                                                         Coon
                                                                                                                                   Upper American
                                                                                                                                                                4
                                                                                                                                                                    Oct   Nov Dec     Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep
                                 ~40 yrs)
ios of Monthly Avg. Tmp (55 Stn, Sacramento
                    Putah                                                                                                          Lower American
                                                                                                                 Folsom
                                                                                    Weir
                                                          Yolo Bypass


                                                                               Sacramento River




                                                                                                                                                               Irrigation w/ all Available Storage
                                                                                                                                      hist                                      Sacramento @ Butte Avg. Water Temps.
                                                                                                                                      WrmDry (+1.9C)           28
                                    Delta                                                                                             WrmDryT2 (+3.9C)
                                                                                                  San Joaquin                                                  24
                                                                                                  Inflows                             WtWnt (+0.9C)
                                                                                                                                      WtWntT2 (+3.2C)          20
                                                                                                                                                                           threshold
                                                                                                                                      WtWntT4 (+5.2C)
                                                                                                                                                           C



                                                                                                                                                               16
                                                                                                                                      VWtrWnt (+3.2)
                                                                                                                                                               12
                                                                                                                                      VWtWntT3 (+6.2)
                                                                                                                                                               8

                                                                                                                                                               4
                                                                                                                                                                    Oct   Nov   Dec   Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep

Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr       May          Jun                            Jul                        Aug           Sep
                    Plans for „05

1. Refine Water Resources Model to able to address relevant
   issues
    •   FERC Re-licensing of the Yuba, American Bear
    •   Sykes Reservoir Analysis
    •   Others..
2. Regional Scenarios
    Develop complete probabilistic approach w/ Bivariate
      Bayesian Model
3. Refine Ecosystem service evaluation by placing into an
   uncertainty construct
4. Legitimacy: Continue to engage relevant stakeholders in
   model development and application process, especially utility
   of probabilistic results!

				
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