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					   Climate System, Climate
Prediction and Climate Change

               Dr.SONG Yan
   Dept. of Science and Technology Training
     Training Centre of China
   Meteorological Administration

                                              1
Ⅱ The fact of climate change




                               2
            Outline

Introduction of IPCC and UNFCCC
Global Climate Change Monitoring
    Air Temperature Change
     Precipitation Change
    Climate Extreme Events




                                   3
1 Introduction of IPCC and UNFCCC




                                    4
    Climate Change: definition
  Climate change is defined as the change of global
and regional climate system induced by natural
factors and human activities. Much attention has
been given to the anthropogenic climate change.

     Note: The definitions given by the IPCC and
     the UNFCCC are rather different!



                                                      5
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
                  政府间气候变化专业委员会

Set up in 1988 by WMO and UNEP (United Nations
Environment Programme/ 联 合 国 环 境 规 划 署 ) , the IPCC
provides the decision-makers and others interested in
climate change with an objective source of information
about climate change.
 Its role is to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and
transparent basis the latest scientific, technical and socio-
economic literature(文献) produced worldwide relevant
to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate
change, its observed and projected(预计的) impacts and
options(方案) for adaptation and mitigation.
Four Assessment Reports in 1990, 1995, 2001 and 2008.
                                                                 6
  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
              政府间气候变化专业委员会

• Reports should be neutral(中立的) with respect to (关
  于,对于)policy, although they need to deal objectively
  with policy relevant scientific, technical and socio
  economic factors. They should be of high scientific and
  technical standards, and aim to reflect a range of views,
  exper'tise(专家意见) and wide geo'graphical coverage.




                                                              7
   Con'stituency (支持者)of IPCC is made of :
• The governments: the IPCC is open to all member countries
  of WMO and UNEP. Governments of participate in plenary
  Sessions (大会)of the IPCC where main decisions about
  the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are
  accepted, adopted and approved. They also participate the
  review of IPCC Reports.
• The scientists: hundreds of scientists all over the world
  contribute to the work of the IPCC as authors(作家),
  contributors (投稿者)and reviewers(评论家).
• The people: as United Nations body, the IPCC work aims at
  the promotion of the United Nations human development
  goals .
                                                              8
            Why the IPCC was created

• Climate change is a very complex issue: policymakers need
  an objective source of information about the causes of
  climate change, its potential environmental and socio-
  economic consequences(结果) and the adaptation and
  mitigation options to respond to it. This is why WMO and
  UNEP established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
  Change (IPCC) in 1988.
•



                                                         9
           Why the IPCC was created
•   The IPCC is a scientific body: the information it provides with its
    reports is based on scientific evidence and reflects existing
    viewpoints within the scientific community. The comprehensiveness
    of the scientific content is achieved through contributions from
    experts in all regions of the world and all relevant disciplines(学科)
    including, where appropriately documented, industry literature(工业
    文献) and traditional practices(惯例), and a two stage review
    process by experts and governments.

•   Because of its intergovernmental nature, the IPCC is able to provide
    scientific technical and socio-economic information in a policy-
    relevant but policy neutral way to decision makers. When
    governments accept the IPCC reports and approve their Summary
    for Policymakers, they acknowledge the le‘gitimacy (正确性)of
    their scientific content.
                                                                      10
               Why the IPCC was created
•   The IPCC provides its reports at regular intervals and they immediately
    become standard works of reference, widely used by policymakers,
    experts and students. The findings of the first IPCC Assessment Report
    of 1990 played a decisive role in leading to the United Nations
    Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which was
    opened for signature in June 1992 and entered into force (生效)in
    1994. It provides the overall policy framework for addressing (陈述,
    表明)the climate change issue. The IPCC Second Assessment Report
    of 1995 provided key input (内容)for the negotiations of the Kyoto
    Protocol (京都议定书)in 1997 and the Third Assessment Report of
    2001 as well as Special and Methodology Reports provided further
    information relevant for the development of the UNFCCC and the Kyoto
    Protocol. The IPCC continues to be a major source of information for
    the negotiations under the UNFCCC.                                  11
•
                     What is IPCC working on?
•   The IPCC is currently starting to outline(勾画) its Fifth
    Assessment Report (AR5) which will be finalized (定稿)in 2014. As it
    has been the case in the past, the outline of the AR5 will be developed
    through a scoping(规划) process which involves climate change experts
    from all relevant disciplines(学科) and users of IPCC reports, in particular
    repre‘sentatives (代表)from governments. As a first step, experts,
    governments and organizations involved (有关的)in the Fourth
    Assessment Report have been asked to submit comments and observations
    (观察报告) in writing. These submissions are currently being analysed by
    members of the Bureau(办公署). Further input(汇报、报告) from
    governments and organizations is expected at the 30th Session of the
    IPCC (21-23 April 2009, Antalya/安塔利亚, Turkey). The scoping meeting
    (规划会议)to define the outline of the AR5 is scheduled for 13-17 July
    2009 (attendance is by invitation only). The outline will be submitted to the
    31st Session of the IPCC and Sessions of the three Working Groups, which
    will be held in Bali, Indonesia, 26-29 October 2009.                      12
The United Nations Framework Convention
           on Climate Change
               联合国气候变化框架公约

The Convention on Climate Change sets(提出) an
overall framework for intergovernmental efforts to
tackle(应对) the challenge posed by climate
change. It recognizes that the climate system is a
shared resource whose stability can be affected by
industrial and other emissions of carbon dioxide and
other greenhouse gases. The Convention enjoys(包
含) near universal(世界的) membership(成员),
with 192 countries having ratified(认可).

                                                       13
  The ultimate objective for UNFCCC:
To achieve stabili'zation (稳定性)of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that
would prevent (防止)dangerous anthropogenic
interference (干扰)with the climate system. Such a
level should be achieved within a time frame (时间期
限)sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally
to climate change, to ensure that food production is
not threatened and to enable economic development
to proceed (进行)in a su'stainable manner.



                                                  14
                PRINCIPLES
-- The Parties should protect the climate system for
  the benefit of (为了…的利益)present and future
  generations of humankind, on the basis of 'equity
  (公正)and in accordance with (按照)their common
  but diffe'rentiated (有区别的)responsibilities (责任)
  and respective (各自的)capabilities. Accordingly,
  the developed country Parties should take the lead
  in combating (抗击)climate change and the adverse
  effects (反作用)thereof (在其中).



                                                       15
New and strong evidences indicate that Global warming is
  ‘une’quivocal(不争的). Climate warming has affect
  human subsistence(生存) and development and bring
  severe challenge to socio-economic sustainable
  development, as well as touch deeply to agriculture and
  food, water resources safety, energy and human health
  safeties.

Global warming has globalization feature and historical root,
  which is not a problem of one time, one region or one
  country. It is not a single climate problem, even not an
  ordinary environmental problem. Adaptation and
  mitigation must make efforts from science, technology,
  economy, politics, society and di'plomacy.

                                                        16
         Detection and Attribution
IPCC:
     Detection of climate change is a process to
prove that a change in temperature or any other
climatic variables could not be explained by natural
variability.
     Attribution is a process to relate a change in climate
to any human factors including the increase of
atmospheric CO2 concentration.



                                                              17
2 Global Climate Change Monitoring




                                     18
  Global Climate Change Monitoring

• Persistent and complete global climate observations
  are essential for (基本的)decadal climate change
  monitoring.

• Now we can monitor and analyze the long-term
  change of atmospheric temperature, precipitation,
  snow cover, sea level pressure, GHG in the climate
  system. And also we start to investigate the climate
  change of oce'anic and atmospheric patterns and
  extreme events .
                                                         19
• Climate change needs long term precise homogeneity
  observations.

• To detect anthropogenic effect of climate change
  requires long term systematic data accumulations (积
  累).

• Through   GCOS    ( Global   Climate     Observing
  System), global climate observed data are collected
  and long term systematic data sets are constructed.
  For climate change detection, inhomogeneities
  should be adjusted.

                                                    20
3 Air Temperature Change




                           21
    公元1856-2005年全球地表温度变化
    (相对于1961-1990年30年气候平均)




Global mean surface temperature rose 0.74℃ during
1860-2005;
The ten warmest years occurred in the aft 1990 period.

                                      (IPCC,2007)   22
Linear trend of annual
temperatures.
1901–2005 (upper; ℃
century–1);
1979–2005 (lower; ℃
decade–1)
(IPCC AR4, 2007)




                   23
 Linear trends of annual mean daily
temperature range from 1979 to 2004
          (Vose et al. 2005)
                                      24
 Warming trends for China are significant in the past 100 years




Global and China surface air temperature changes in the recent 100 years,
                     relative to the period 1961~1990               25
         Annual and seasonal mean surface air temperature
               series of mainland China:1905-2001
Anomaly( ºC)                                                                        3
                                                                                    2
                                                                                            a. winter
                                                                                    1
 1.00                                                                               0
                                                                                    -1
                                                                                    -2
                                                                                    -3
                                                                                     3
 0.50                                                                               2       b. spring
                                                                                    1
                                                                                    0
                                                                                    -1
                                                                                    -2
 0.00
                                                                                    -3
                                                                            0.79℃   1
                                                                                     2
                                                                                            c. summer
                                                                                    1
                                                                                    0
 -0.50
                                                                                    -1
                                                                                    -1
                                                                                    -2
                                                                                     3
                                                                                    2       d. autumn
 -1.00
                                                Global average: 0.60 ℃              1
                                                                                    0
                                                                                    -1
                                                                                    -2
 -1.50                                                                              -3
     1900   1910   1920   1930   1940   1950   1960   1970   1980   1990   2000     1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000


                                        Year                                             Seasonal mean surface air temperature
                                                                                         anomalies in China: 1905~2001. The solid
  The solid lines denote temperature anomalies,
                                                                                         lines denote temperature anomalies, and the
  and the dashed lines indicate linear trend that is                                     dashed lines indicate linear trends that are
  significant at the 0.01 confidence level.                                              significant at the 0.01 level except for
                                                                                         summer.
                                                                                                                                  26
            Trends of annual mean surface air temperature of
                        China during 1951-2001




2009-5-25                                                      2727
  Characteristics of China SAT (Surface Air
Temperature )change as obtained from national
                station network
  • Rapid warming over the past 100 years, especially
    over the last 25 years;
  • More evident warming in north than in south;
  • A few areas undergoing a cooling, in particular in
    summertime and springtime;
  • Larger increase of SAT in cold seasons;
  • Significant drop in annual and daily SAT range
    nationwide.
                                                         28
Difference from the global change:
• More rapid warming in China, even more in
  North of China;
• More significant warming in 1930s-1940s;
• A delayed warming of about ten-years behind
  global average in the recent warm period;
• More significant warming in cold seasons and
  nighttime;
• Much more evident drop in daily temperature
  range (DTR).
                                                 29
   Characteristics of upper air
      temperature change
• No significant warming in the past 40-50 years
  for troposphere (对流层)of China;
• Warming in mid-to lower troposphere is also
  weak for the past 40-50 years, but significant for
  period 1979-2004;
• Significant difference exists between surface
  and upper air temperature trends.


                                                  30
                                                          Annual mean air temperature
                                                          trends (°C/10yr) of the mid
                                                          and lower troposphere (yellow)
                                                          and the surface (red) over
                                                          China for 1961~2004

                                                                           SAT
                                                                           MLT     0.25

                                                                                   0.2

                                                                                   0.15

                                                                                   0.1

                                                                                   0.05

                                                                                   0


Com'parison of country averaged annual mean air temperature anomalies
between the mid and lower troposphere (above) and the surface (below) over
China for 1961~2004.
Dot lines indicate the level of 1971~2000 average or the value of 0°C anomalies.
Solid straight lines indicate linear trends. Error bars denote two-sigma
uncertainty ranges

                                                                                         31
4 Precipitation Change




                         32
Trends of annual
precipitation.
Above: 1901–2005, %/
century;
Below: 1979–2005, %/
decade.


Grey areas indicate
insufficiency of data.


From GHCN data set
(IPCC, 2007)




                   33
               Precipitation has been changing significantly
                    in the most area of the continent



                                                               increase




                                                               decrease

                                                               ( IPCC AR4, 2007 )
Changes of annual precipitation in continental scales during 1901~2005 (%)
                                                                       34
 In most land areas, the proportion of heavy precipitation is increasing.
      Frequency of heavy precipitation in China is also increasing.




                                                                  ( IPCC AR4, 2007 )
Distribution of the proportion of heavy precipitation and extreme heavy precipitation
                               (+: increase; -: decrease)


                                                                               35
  Annual mean precipitation               Precipitation over eastern
  (1971-2000)(Gao, et al., 2003)          China (1956-2000)




Northern China’s population and land area account for 37% and 45% of
the whole country’s, respectively, but the average water resource there
only accounts for 12%of the country’s total amount.                 36
Trend of annual precipitation from 1956 to 2002 in
China. Yellow and red color indicates decrease in
annual precipitation.




                                                     Trend of precipitation change
                                                     over eastern China from 1951
                                                     to 2004. Negative (blue)
                                                     indicates a decreasing trend.



                                                                            37
                                             Trends of annual mean
                                       precipitation over China from
                                                       1956 to 2002




Annual precipitation change
—difference of precipitation between
1980-2000 and 1956-1979




                                                                  38
Rainfall (mm)
700

600
      summer

500
                                                     冬季
400   spring                                         春季
                                                     夏季
300
                                                     秋季
200
      autumn
100

      winter
  0
   1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000   Year

Area-averaged seasonal rainfall in the Yangtze
         River Basin: 1960-2001                           39
5 Climate Extreme Events




                           40
             Extreme event
• An extreme event is an event that is rare
  within its statistical reference distribution at
  a particular place.
• Definitions of “rare” vary, but an extreme
  event would normally be as rare as or
  rarer than the 10th or 90th percentile(百分
  点).



                                                41
• An extreme climate event is an average of a
number of weather events over a certain period of
time, an average which itself is extreme (e.g.
rainfall over a season)."




                                                    42
When is an extreme extreme?
  (different for different users)


Ca‘tastrophes (大灾难)- extreme
extremes (99.9%)




                                    43
Warm day and cold day

45
度




40
35
30
25
20                           Tmax
                             最高温度
15
                             气候平均值
                             Climate mean
10
                             第5个百分位值
                             The 5th percentile
 5
                             第95个百分位值
                             The 95th percentile
 0
     1   2   3   4   5   6   7    8    9   10 11 12 月
                                                        44
Warm nights and cold nights
    30
度




    25

    20

    15
                                 最低温度
                                 Tmin
    10                           Climate mean
                                 气候平均值
     5                           第5个百分位值
                                 The 5th percentile
                                 第95个百分位值
                                 The 95th percentile
     0
         1   2   3   4   5   6    7    8    9   10 11 12 月
                                                             45
  All-China mean annual number of days of warm days during 1951-
1999 (thick line, and dashed line was 11-point binomial filtered) and cool
days (thin lines, and dashed line was 11-point binomial filtered)
     (d/a)
50


40


30


20


10
     1951


             1956


                    1961


                           1966


                                  1971


                                         1976


                                                1981


                                                       1986


                                                              1991


                                                                     1996
                                                                            46
All-China mean anomalies for (a) number of hot days and (b) number of frost days
                                                                                    (trend:-0.5d/10a)
            10


                                                   hot days
             5
     (d)




             0



             -5
                     91




                             96




                                     91




                                             96




                                                      91




                                                              96




                                                                     91




                                                                             96




                                                                                         91




                                                                                                 96
                    15




                            15




                                    16




                                            16




                                                     17




                                                             17




                                                                    18




                                                                            18




                                                                                        19




                                                                                                19
                                                  frost days                      (trend: -2.4d/10a)
           15

           10

            5

            0
()
d




            -5

           -10

           -15

           -20
                   91




                           96




                                   91




                                           96




                                                    91




                                                            96




                                                                    91




                                                                           96




                                                                                       91




                                                                                               96
                                                                                                      47
                  15




                          15




                                  16




                                          16




                                                   17




                                                           17




                                                                   18




                                                                          18




                                                                                      19




                                                                                              19
In many regions, changes in total precipitation
are linked to changes in heavy precipitation

               USA
        S. Canada       Total Precip
     S.E. Australia     Heavy precip
        FSU -west
        FSU - east
           Norway
          N. Japan
 Region




          S. Japan
          N. China
           S. China
           Ethiopia
         W. Kenya
     SW S. Africa
              Natal
         Nord-este
          Thailand
                  -15       -10        -5   0      5    10
rectangle n.长方形, 矩形          Linear trends (%/decade)
                                                         48
 concurrent adj.并发的, 协作的, 一致的 consistent adj.一致的
                   Figure winter storms appear
Northern Hemispheric intense4
         to be occurring more frequently

                    100


                    80


                    60
Storms per Winter




                    40


                    20


                     0
                      1900   1920   1940          1960   1980   2000

                                           Year
                                                                   49
        Changes in intense NH winter storms and
             temperatures correlate well
       Degrees C                                        Events/year
0.6                                                               90
         Global T (11 yrm)
         Winter Storms (11 yrm)
0.4                                                                 75


0.2                                                                 60


  0                                                                 45


-0.2                                                                30


-0.4                                                                15


-0.6                                                                0
  1860       1880     1900    1920      1940   1960   1980    2000
                                                               50
                                     Year
       The End


Comments?

            Questions?


                         51