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Countermeasures - PDF

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					              Merge Climate Change with D l
              M     Cli t Ch                      t
                                    ith Development




                             Kejun JIANG
                           Kjiang@eri org cn
                           Kjiang@eri.org.cn

                     Energy Research Institute, China




                                                                  1
                                                             ERI, China




         Energy Production and Consumption in China, 1957-
                               2006

       2000

       1500
                                                        Consumption
Mtoe




       1000
M




                                                        Production
        500

          0
          1950      1970          1990         2010
                           Year




                                                                  2
                             CO2 Emission in China, 1990-2005

                    6000
                    5000
    Millito t-CO2
                2




                    4000
                    3000
          on




                    2000
                    1000
                       0
                           90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
                                                Year


                                                                             3




20% Energy Intensity Target in 11th Five Year Plan

    • 20% energy intensity reduction within 11th Five Year
      Plan(2005-2010)
      Plan(2005 2010)
    • Very good for China, not only for energy, but also for
      environment, economic structure optimization
    • Most ambitious target in the world: making full effort to
      reach the target
      One of th Bi
    • O                     t     ti                 iti ti
              f the Biggest actions on GHG mitigation:
      190million t-C reduction in 2010 compared with baseline,
                   tC
      410million t-C reduction compared with no intensity
      change




                                                                             4
 Countermeasures to reach 20% energy intensity target



• Allocate target to all provinces.
• 1000 large energy user monitoring program in national level,
                                               monitoring.
  but local government extend the number for monitoring
• Government investment on energy saving project:
  23.5billion Yuan in 2007 from government budget.
• Energy saving and emission reduction is one key indicator
  for local chief government official.
• Closing small coal fired power plants, steel making plants,
  coke making plants etc.:
• Strong implementation of 10 energy conservation program
  in the long-term energy conservation plan.
    s b s g e e gy co se v o s s c d sys e
• Establishing energy conservation statistic data system
                                                            5




 Sustainable Development and Energy Policies


  Renewable energy law: renewable energy target by 2020
  Wind:             30GW
  Solar Power PV: 1.8GW
  Solar heater:     300million m2
  Biomass Power: 30GW
  Bi       Di l
  Biomass Diesel: 2Mt
  Biomass           10Mt
  Biomass solid fuel:50million ton
  Small Hydro:      80GW




                                                            6
 China’s National Climate Change Programme



• Status Quo of Climate Change in China and Efforts to Deal
  With Climate Change
• Impacts and Challenges of Climate Change on China
• Guidelines, principles and objectives of China to respond to
  climate change
• China’s policies and measures to address climate change
• China’s Position on Key Climate Change Issues and Need
  for International Cooperation




                                                                                           7




                  Contribution to the CO2 emission Reduction
        4.0
                                                                          Social Efficiency
        3.5                                                               improvemen
        3.0                                                               Technology progress

        2.5                                                               Oil
 Gt-C
    C




        2.0
                                                                          Gas
        1.5
                                                                          Nuclear
        1.0
        1 0

        0.5                                                               Renewable

        0.0
        0 0
           1990   2000   2010   2020   2030   2040   2050   2075   2100
                                       Year




                                                                                           8
                                                                                      ERI, China
                     long term
Key technologies for long-term energy perspective


  • Modern renewable energy production (solar energy
    etc.)
        )
  • Advanced nuclear power generation
  • Fuel cell
     GCC/A
  • IGCC/Advanced clean coal technologiesi
  • Advanced gas turbine

  • Unconventional nature gas and crude oil production
            g
    technologies
  • Syn-fuel production technology


                                                                                                      9




 Identify efficiency promised technologies: fully used by 2020
 To make Chinese industry best energy efficiency in the world
  before 2030: own energy policy target
     Sector               Technologies
     Steel Industry       Large size equipment (Coke Oven, Blast furnace, Basic oxygen
                          furnace ,etc.), Equipment of coke dry quenching, Continuous casting
                              hi
                          machine, TRT
                          Continuous rolling machine, Equipment of coke oven gas, OH gas and
                          BOF gas recovery , DC-electric arc furnace
     Chemical Industry    Large size equipment for Chemical Production, Waste Heat Recover
                          System, Ion membrane technology, Existing Technology Improving
     Paper Making         Co-generation System, facilities of residue heat utilization, Black
                          liquor recovery system, Continuous distillation system
     Textile              Co-generation System, Shuttleless loom, High Speed Printing and
                          Dyeing
     Non-ferrous metal                          ,                        y      ,Q
                          Reverberator furnace, Waste Heat Recover System, QSL for lead and
                          zinc production
     Building Materials   dry process rotary kiln with pre-calciner, Electric power generator with
                          residue heat, Colburn process, Hoffman kiln, Tunnel kiln
     Machinery            High speed cutting, Electric-hydraulic hammer, Heat Preservation
                          Furnace
     Residential          Cooking by gas, Centralized Space Heating System, Energy Saving
                          Electric Appliance, High Efficient Lighting
     Service              Centralized Space Heating System, Centralized Cooling Heating
                          System, Co-generation System, Energy Saving Electric Appliance,
                          High Efficient Lighting
     Transport            Diesel truck, Low Energy Use Car, Electric Car, Natural Gas Car,
                          Electric Railway Locomotives
     Common Use           High Efficiency Boiler, FCB Technology, High Efficiency Electric
     Technology           Motor
                          S d Adj t bl Motor, Centrifugal Electric Fun, Energy Saving
                          Speed Adjustable M t C t if l El t i F E                      S i
                          Lighting
                                                                                                     10
A lot to do


  • Efficiency standard: move faster, technology already
    available
  • Fiscal polices: energy tax, carbon tax, subsidy for
    cleaner energy
            h l       diff i
  • New technology diffusion
  • Environment education
  • Government political push




                                                               11




    Policy Options for alternative transport scenario
                    Mode              Policy Options
                              New Boing Airplane, AirBus
     Air
                              380
                              Efficiency improvement 8% for
     Railway
                              electric and diesel locomotive
                              15% efficiency improvement
     Waterway                 by using larger tank and
                              engine
                              Advanced diesel truck, more
     Freight Large Truck
                              then 50%
                              Hybrid Truck, 20%
     Freight Small Truck      Hybrid Truck, 50%
                              New Diesel Truck, 40%
     Bus                              Bus,
                              Hybrid Bus 70%
     Car                      Efficient diesel car, 30%
                              Hybrid car 50%
     Biomass Fule             Ethonal 30% of gasoline use
                                               g
                              BioDiesel 15%
     Public Transport         Take 15% more from car use
     Bicycle                  10% more
                              St t from 2010, similar rate
                              Start f     2010 i il     t
     Fuel tax                 by 2020 with that in Japan and   12
                              Europe
                    模型分析及结果: 征收能源税情景
                    Modeling analysis result: Energy tax scenario
                                        能源税对中国GDP的影响
                                    Effect of energy tax on GDP of China
                   0.5%
             ate
损失率 %, Loss Ra




                   0.4%
                   0.3%

                   0.2%
                   0 2%
  率




                   0.1%

                   0.0%
                              2000        2005      2010      2015  2020                                2025      2030
                                                              年份, Year

                                                                                                                       能源税对能源需求的影响
                                                                                     ction Rate                    Effect of energy tax on energy demand
                                                                                                                   Eff     f                      d    d
                                                                                                  18%
                                                                                                  16%
                                                                                                  14%
                                                                                                  12%
                                                                           节能 %, Reduc




                                                                                                  10%
                                                                                                   8%
                                                                                                   6%
                                                                                                   4%
                                                                            能率




                                                                                                   2%
                                                                                                   0%
                                                                                                           2000      2005    2010 2015        2020         2030
                                                                                                                                                     2025 13
                                                                                                                             年份,Year




                   Strong energy policies pushed Chinese industry to be the top
                   in the world

                                                                     Fixed Unit Ivestment

                                    3000                                                                                                             1995
                                    2500                                                                                                             2000
                                                                                                                                                     2005
                                    2000
                          yuan/kW
                                W




                                                                                                                                                     2010
                                    1500                                                                                                             2020
                                    1000                                                                                                             2030
                                      500                                                                                                            2050
                                          0
                                                 International International                                   China IGCC   China SC   China USC
                                                     IGCC       IGCC-Fuel
                                                                    Cell




                                                                                                                                                           14
 Road Map of Mitigation Policies


          2020
• Before 2020, continue domestic energy conservation
  policies, renewable energy, nuclear policies, reduce the
  growth rate for GHG emission
• After 2020, take target to reach peak of emission in 2030,
  or even before 2030.
  Try t      k d      d ti      ft 2030 t ki l d i
• T to make deep reduction after 2030, taking lead in new
  technology development




                                                               15

				
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