CAHSEE Evaluation 2010 Biennial Report Summary of Findings and by wlv27253

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                                 CAHSEE Evaluation 2010 Biennial Report:
                                Summary of Findings and Recommendations

                                                                                  Presentation to:
                                                     California State Board of Education

                                                                                           Presenter:
                                                                Lauress L. Wise, HumRRO

                                                                                             Date:
                                                                               March 10, 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                     1
       March 10, 2010                                                             CAHSEE Evaluation 2010 Biennial Report




                     Analyses of Test Results:
                     Passing Rates

Passing Rates for Seniors Similar to                                                                                                Trends in 10th Grade Passing Rates
Last Year

                                     Percent of Seniors Meeting the CAHSEE Requirement                                          100.0%
                                                                                                                                                              7 7 .3 %
                                                                                                                                                              7 6 .9 %




                                                                                                                                                                                         7 6 .9 %
                                                                                                                                                                                         7 6 .4 %
                                                                                                                                                             7 4 .8 %
                                                                                                                                                             7 2 .9 %

                                                                                                                                                             7 3 .4 %
                                                                                                                                                             7 3 .3 %




                                                                                                                                                                                       7 1 .8 %


                                                                                                                                                                                       7 2 .2 %
                                                                                                                                                                                       7 2 .1 %
                                                                                                                                                                                       7 1 .7 %
                                                                                                                                           6 9 .9 %
                                                                                                                                           6 9 .2 %
                                                                                                                                         6 5 .4 %
                                                                                                                                         6 5 .1 %
                                                                                                                                         6 5 .2 %
                                                                                                                                         6 4 .3 %
                                                                                              1 0 th G r a d e P a s s R a te




                                                                                                                                80.0%
                                            96%
                                            97%
                                            96%
                                           95%
                                           94%
                                           93%
                                           93%




                                                                                                                                60.0%
                                          90%




                                         90%
                                         90%




                                         90%
                                         90%
                                         89%


                                         88%


                                         88%




                              100%
                                        87%
                                        88%
 P e r c e n t P a s s in g




                                        86%




                                        86%
                                       84%




                                      79%
                                     78%




                               90%
                                     77%
                                     76%




                                                                                                                                40.0%
                               80%
                               70%                                                                                              20.0%
                               60%
                               50%                                                                                               0.0%
                                      All    Asian   Hispanic African Low SES      E. L.                                                    Both                   ELA                        Math
                                                             American
                                                                                                                                                   2004   2005   2006    2007   2008   2009

                                                 2006    2007   2008   2009




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            Analyses of Test Results:
            Trends for Lower-Achieving Demographic
            Groups (10th Grade Passing Rates)
                                           80%




                                                                  70%
                                                      69%
                                                    65 %
                                                   65 %
                                                   65 %
                                                   64 %
                                           70%
                   10th Grade Pass Rates




                                                                                          60%




                                                                                                                                                        59%
                                                                              59%




                                                                                                                                               57%
                                                                                                          53 %
                                           60%




                                                                           53%
                                                                           52%




                                                                                                      53%




                                                                                                                                            51%
                                                                          51%




                                                                                                                                            51%
                                                                                                                                           50%
                                                                         49%




                                                                                                   48%


                                                                                                                                          48%
                                                                                                  4 6%
                                                                                                  4 6%
                                                                                                 4 5%
                                           50%
                                           40%




                                                                                                                                                                                   31%
                                                                                                                                                                      31%
                                                                                                                                                                     30%


                                                                                                                                                                     30%
                                                                                                                                                                   2 7%
                                                                                                                                                                  2 6%
                                           30%




                                                                                                                                                                                                         21%
                                                                                                                                                                                              21%
                                                                                                                                                                                             21%
                                                                                                                                                                                             20%

                                                                                                                                                                                             20%
                                                                                                                                                                                            19%
                                           20%
                                           10%
                                           0%
                                                           All             Hispanic                 Afr. Am.                                   E.D.                     E.L.                      S.E.

                                                                               2004          2005       2006                               2007            2008              2009

                                                                                                                                                                                                                 3
           March 10, 2010                                                                 CAHSEE Evaluation 2010 Biennial Report




            Analyses of Test Results:
            CAHSEE Persistence
                Class of 2008 Exit Codes Analyses                                                                                   Class of 2008 Students Continuing
                By Demographic Group                                                                                                to Take the CAHSEE in 2009 by
                                                                                                                                    Demographic Group
                 Percent Meeting All but CAHSEE Requirement
                                                                                                                                    70%
          4.0%                                                                               3.6%                                                                  61%
                                                                                                          Percent Testing in 2009




          3.5%                                                                                                                      60%
                                                                                      2.8%                                                                                                               51%
          3.0%                                                                                                                      50%    45%       45%   45%                      46%
                                                                                                                                                                             43%                   42%
Percent




          2.5%                                                                                                                                                                                                  38%
                                                           1.6% 1.4%                                                                                                                        37%
          2.0%                                                                 1.4%                                                 40%
          1.5%    1.0% 1.1% 1.0% 0.8%
          1.0%
                                                                                                                                    30%
                                                                        0.5%
          0.5%                                                                                                                      20%
          0.0%
                                                                                                                                    10%
                                                                               .
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            •           Only 1% of Class of 2008 students were coded as having met all requirements
                        except the CAHSEE
                                               • 45% of these students continued to test in 2009
            •           More students who did not graduate in 4 years are continuing to take the CAHSEE
            •           About 60% of last year’s seniors who had not passed the CAHSEE did not test this
                        year (27,500 students)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 4
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                                Analyses of Test Results:
                                Pathways to Success
                        •           We examined the relationship between 7th grade CST scores and passing the
                                    CAHSEE by 12th grade for the Class of 2008
                        •           98% of 7th graders scoring at or above the 7th grade median in 2003 passed the
                                    CAHSEE by senior year
                                     –    91% scoring slightly below (within 35 points) the median passed the CAHSEE by their senior year
                                     –    63% scoring between 255 and 290 passed the CAHSEE
                                     –    Only 30% scoring below 255 passed the CAHSEE
                                     –    Results were lower for some groups (students with disabilities & EL)
                                     –    Relationships similar for other groups – problems for those groups occur mainly before 7th grade
                        •           Students at risk of not passing the CAHSEE can be identified in 7th grade
                                                                                     Class of 2008 CAHSEE Passing Rates by 2003 STAR 7th
                                                                                               Grade ELA and Math Score Levels




                                                                                                                                                                                        100%
                                                                                                                                                                                        100%
                                                                                                                                                                                               100%
                                                                                                                                                                     98%
                                                                                                                                                                           99%
                                                                                                                                                                           99%
                                                                                                                                 95%
                                                                                                                                         93%
                                                                                                                                 91%
                                                            Percent Passing




                                                                                                                     75%
                                                                              100%

                                                                                                                    70%
                                                                                                              63%
                                                                               80%
                                                                                            41%
                                                                                                  39%




                                                                               60%
                                                                                           30%




                                                                               40%
                                                                               20%
                                                                                0%
                                                                                           54




                                                                                                               89




                                                                                                                                  24




                                                                                                                                                                     59




                                                                                                                                                                                         00
                                                                                          -2




                                                                                                              -2




                                                                                                                                 -3




                                                                                                                                                                  -3




                                                                                                                                                                                        -6
                                                                                      0




                                                                                                          5




                                                                                                                             0




                                                                                                                                                                 5




                                                                                                                                                                                    0
                                                                                     15




                                                                                                         25




                                                                                                                            29




                                                                                                                                                            32




                                                                                                                                                                                   36
                                                                                                    Average of 2003 STAR ELA and Math Score

                                                                                                                    Both Tests    ELA Test                       Math Test
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          5
                               March 10, 2010                                                                 CAHSEE Evaluation 2010 Biennial Report




                                Analyses of Test Results:
                                Results for Students with Disabilities
                                         CAHSEE Passing Rates by                                                                                             Average 11th Grade Score Gain by
                                         Time in Regular Instruction –                                                                                       Time in Regular Instruction – 2006
                                         2006 and 2009                                                                                                       and 2009
P ercen t P assing CAHS E E




                              60%                                                                                                                           20
                                                                                                                                       Average Score Gain




                              50%
                                                                                                                                                            15
                              40%
                              30%                                                                                                                           10
                              20%
                                                                                                                                                            5
                              10%
                              0%                                                                                                                            0
                                     100%    81– 99% 67–80% 51–66% 11– 50% 01–10%                                    None                                                  > 80%         50–80%         11–49%      00–10%        All SWD
                                                                                                                                                                                              Time in Regular Instruction
                                                 Percent Time in Regular Instruction
                                                                                                                                                                              ELA - 2006        ELA - 2009   Math - 2006    Math - 2009
                                            ELA - 2006   ELA - 2009                  2006 Math          2009 Math




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          6
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                                          Analyses of Test Results:
                                          Results for Students with Disabilities (Continued)

                                         Percent of Students Using A Common                                                                                    Percent with Common Modification
                                         Testing Modification – 2006 and 2009                                                                                  Qualifying for a Waiver – 2006 and
                                                                                                                                                               2009




                                                                                                                          4 2.8%
P erce n t U s in g M o d ific a tio n




                                         50%
                                                                                                                                                               50%



                                                                                      3 1 .4 %
                                         40%




                                                                                                                 27 .6%
                                                                                                                                                               40%




                                                                                                                                           P ercent P assing




                                                                                                                                                                                               28.4%
                                                                                                                                                                                       25.8%
                                                                                                                                                                               25.3%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                    24.9%
                                                                                                                                                                       24.3%
                                         30%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    22.6%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    22.3%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    21.8%
                                                                                                          18 .4 %




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            20.3%
                                                                                                                                                               30%
                                                                           1 6 .3 %
                                                                           15 .7 %




                                                                                                                                                                                                            17.8%


                                                                                                                                                                                                                            17.5%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            17.5%
                                         20%
                                                    1 0.2%




                                                                                                                                                               20%
                                                   8.0%




                                                                                                 7 .4 %
                                                                    5.4%
                                                3.0%
                                                2.8%




                                         10%                                                                                                                   10%

                                         0%                                                                                                                    0%
                                                 Grade 10              Grade 11                      Grade 12                                                              Grade 10                             Grade 11                        Grade 12

                                                Oral - 2006    Oral - 2009       Calc - 2006              Calc - 2009                                                  Oral - 2006                     Oral - 2009            Calc - 2006           Calc - 2009




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     7
                                         March 10, 2010                                                      CAHSEE Evaluation 2010 Biennial Report




                                          Review of Test Quality:
                                          Alignment Review Results
                                         •     Independent alignment study
                                                – Examined alignment of the Feb. 2008 CAHSEE test
                                                – Repeated review for ELA test in 2009
                                                      • Generally good alignment
                                                      • May want to increase depth of knowledge of reading comprehension questions
                                                      • May need further investigation of differences between ETS and independent reviewers on
                                                        mapping questions to specific content objectives.
                                         •     Scoring consistency for the essays
                                                – Percent agreement in essay scores similar to prior years. For 10th grade essays:
                                                      • 67% exact agreement
                                                      • Less than 1% discrepancies greater than 1 score point
                                                                                                                                   Test Alignment Outcomes for 2009 Review
                                                                                                                                   Categorical                  Depth of       Range of                 Balance
                                                              Content Strand                                                       Concurrence                   Know-          Know-                    Index
                                                                                                                                                                 ledge          ledge
                                                                                                                                                                       ELA
                                                         1 Word Analysis, Fluency, and
                                                           Systematic Vocabulary                                                     YES                         YES              YES                     YES
                                                           Development
                                                         2 Reading Comprehension                                                     YES                         NO               YES                     YES
                                                         3    Literary Response and Analysis                                         YES                         YES              YES                     YES
                                                         4    Writing Strategies                                                     YES                         YES              YES                     YES
                                                         5    Writing Applications                                                   YES                         YES              YES                     YES
                                                         6    Written and Oral English
                                                                                                                                     YES                         YES              YES                     YES
                                                              Language Conventions                                                                                                                                                                                   8
                                         March 10, 2010                                                      CAHSEE Evaluation 2010 Biennial Report




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 Review of Impact of CAHSEE Requirement:
 Student Questionnaire Responses
 •                                                             Some trends from 2005 to 2009
                                                                    – Students report increased help preparing to take the CAHSEE
                                                                                • Teacher explained the CAHSEE (37/35% from 36/32%)
                                                                                • Spent time in class or took a special class to prepare
                                                                    – More students believe the CAHSEE is “very important” (81% from 79%)
                                                                    – More students reported most/all of the CAHSEE topics were covered in their
                                                                      courses (94/92%)
                                                                    – More 10th graders say they will stay in school and keep trying if they do not pass
                                                                      (77/79%)
 •                                                             Students who passed were more likely to report
                                                                    –   Use of released items to prepare
                                                                    –   Plans to attend college
                                                                    –   All or most topics were covered in their classes
                                                                    –   They would stay in school and try again if they did not pass
 •                                                             Students who did not pass either test were more likely to report
                                                                    –   The CAHSEE was not very important
                                                                    –   They might be delayed in graduating and have to take extra courses
                                                                    –   The CAHSEE might prevent them from graduating
                                                                    –   They plan to work full time or join the military after high school
                                                                    –   Many topics were not covered in their courses and CAHSEE questions were
                                                                        more difficult than those encountered in their courses
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   9
March 10, 2010                                                                                                                                CAHSEE Evaluation 2010 Biennial Report




 Review of Impact of CAHSEE Req’t:
 Student Questionnaire Responses
  Were Most or All Topics on the Test                                                                                                                                Reasons Given for Not Doing Well:
  Covered in Your Courses (10th                                                                                                                                      2009 (10th Graders)
  Graders)
     % S a y i n g M o s t/ A l l T o p i c s C o v e r e d




                                                                                                                                                                        9%
                                                                                                                                                       94.2%




                                                                                                                                                                       9%




                                                              96%                                                                                              10%
                                                                                                                                      93.9%
                                                                                                               9 3 .7 %
                                                                                           93.3%




                                                                                                                                                9 2 .4 %
                                                                                                                                  92.3%




                                                                                                                                                               8%
                                                                        92.2%




                                                              94%
                                                                                                                          91.5%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                           5%
                                                                                                   9 0 .6 %




                                                                                                                                                               6%
                                                                                                                                                                                                               5%



                                                                                                                                                                                                                          5%




                                                              92%
                                                                                                                                                                                     4%
                                                                                                                                                                                    4%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                    4%
                                                                                8 8 .9 %




                                                                                                                                                               4%
                                                              90%
                                                                                                                                                                                                 2%
                                                                                                                                                                                                 1%




                                                                                                                                                               2%
                                                              88%
                                                                                                                                                               0%
                                                              86%                                                                                                    Too Nervous     Not       Not Enough Testing         Other
                                                                        2005               2006                 2007              2008           2009                              Motivated      Time    Conditions     Reasons

                                                                                                                                                                                          After ELA   After Math
                                                                                                              ELA Math




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   10
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                   Review of Impact of CAHSEE Req’t:
                   Enrollment Decline Trends
                  Enrollment Decline Trends: Fall 10th                                                                                                                                           Enrollment Decline Trends: Fall 11th
                  to Fall 11th Grade                                                                                                                                                             to Fall 12th Grade
                  12%                                                                                                                                               12%
                                                                            CAHSEE                                                                                                                                No CAHSEE Requirement           CAHSEE            CAHSEE Requirement Fully in Effect
                                                                                                                                                                                                      11.0%
                                             No CAHSEE Requirement         Requirement         CAHSEE Requirement Fully in Effect                                                                             10.8%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       10.6%                    Requirement
                                                                          Partly in Effect                                                                                                                                                     Partly in Effect
                  10%                                                                                                                                               10%


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     8.1%
                                        7.8%             7.9%                                                                                                                                                                                 7.6%                  7.8%
                  8%                                             7.7%                                                                                                                8%
                                                7.4%                                                                                                                                                                                                     7.2%




                                                                                                                                      Percent Decline
Percent Decline




                                                                          6.7%      6.4%     6.4%
                                                                                                     6.0%
                  6%                                                                                                  5.7%                                                           6%
                                                                                                             5.5%                                                                                                                                                            5.2%
                                                                                                                               4.8%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       3.9%
                  4%                                                                                                                                                                 4%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2.5%
                                                                                                                                                                                     2%
                  2%


                                                                                                                                                                                     0%
                  0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                      2000       2001        2002    2003     2004       2005       2006     2007      2008      2009
                                        2000     2001    2002    2003     2004      2005     2006    2007    2008     2009     2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            High School Class
                                                                           High School Class




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              11
                  March 10, 2010                                                                                    CAHSEE Evaluation 2010 Biennial Report




                   Review of Impact of CAHSEE Req’t:
                   Graduation Rates

                  Graduation Rate Trends: 2003 - 2008                                                                                         Graduation Rates by Racial/Ethnic
                                                                                                                                              Group – 2007 and 2008
                                       100
                                                                                                                                                 R a t io o f G ra d s t o 9 t h G ra d e rs




                                                 86.7           85.3          85.1
                                                                                                                                                                                                          92%




                                        90                                                    83.4                                                                                             100%
                                                                                                                                                                                                         90%


                                                                                                                                                                                                                         89%




                                                                                                             80.6            80.2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        85%




                                        80
                                                                                                                                                                                               90%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    79%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    78%




                                        70
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               71%




                                                 70.8           70.6           71.1                                                                                                            80%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              68%




                                                                                              67.1           67.7            68.5
                   P e rc e n ta g e




                                        60
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             62%




                                                                                                                                                                                               70%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            58%


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        58%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       56%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    55%




                                        50
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    55%




                                                                                                                                                                                               60%
                                        40
                                                                                                                                                                                               50%
                                        30
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Asian          Filipino    White     Pacific      Amer.      Hispanic      Black
                                        20                                                                                                                                                                                                   Islander      Indian
                                        10

                                         0                                                                                                                                                                                                  2007 2008
                                                 2003           2004          2005            2006          2007             2008
                                                                               Graduation Year
                                                    Graduation Rate Required for NCLB Reporting      Ninth Grade to Graduate Rate




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              12
                  March 10, 2010                                                                                    CAHSEE Evaluation 2010 Biennial Report




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 Review of Impact of CAHSEE Req’t:
 Teacher Characteristics and CAHSEE Performance
        Percentage of Schools Using Teachers with Emergency Credentials

                                                      ELA                    Math
                  Number of Teachers with        2005     2009          2005      2009
                  Emergency Credentials        (n =187) (n =105)      (n =199) (n =135)
                  Some / Most (25-100%)           4.2      3.0           7.5       4.4
                  Only a few (less than 25%)     34.2     24.8          45.2      21.5
                  None                           61.5     72.4          47.2      74.1



 •	 Examined relationship of survey responses to school-level CAHSEE 

    passing rates (and score gains for remedial program questions)

       –	 Teaching experience was significantly related to CAHSEE success for
          ELA, but not for math
 •	 Especially in math, teachers in schools serving high numbers of low 

    achieving students had less experience teaching the CA content 

    standards.


                                                                                          13
March 10, 2010                             CAHSEE Evaluation 2010 Biennial Report




 Recommendations
 Recommendation 1: California should seek
   additional ways to encourage students who do
   not pass in 4 years to continue their studies for
   1 or more additional years. The paths of
   students who do continue should be studied to
   identify programs that help them succeed.
       –	 For some students, community college options may
          work better (a different environment)
       –	 Need to know more about what programs students
          are pursuing

                                                                                          14
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 Recommendations (Continued)
 Recommendation 2: New interventions should be
  targeted at earlier grades, using test scores to
  identify students who have fallen behind their
  classmates and are at risk of failing to meet the
  CAHSEE requirement.
       – Current interventions have focused on 12th grade
         remediation and additional years of high school.
       – Study is needed to identify programs that are effective
         in helping students who have fallen behind at earlier
         points to catch up by the end of high school.


                                                                    15
March 10, 2010	            CAHSEE Evaluation 2010 Biennial Report




Recommendations (Continued)
 Recommendation 3: In these tight financial times,
   districts may need particular help and direction
   to attract and retain teachers who are
   experienced and well qualified in the subjects
   that they teach. District and school efforts to
   increase coordination across grade levels and
   between general and special instructional
   programs should also be encouraged and
   supported.
       –	 Teacher qualifications were again found to be 

          related to student outcomes

       –	 As was coordination across instructional elements         16
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 Recommendations (Continued)
 Recommendation 4: Districts, schools, and IEP
   teams should make all possible efforts to
   provide access to the general curriculum to
   students with disabilities so that these students
   can obtain the skills needed to pass the
   CAHSEE.
       –	 Instructional decisions for students with disabilities
          are local and thus not easy to monitor.
       –	 Students who do not have access to the general
          curriculum have little chance of passing CAHSEE.

                                                                     17
March 10, 2010	             CAHSEE Evaluation 2010 Biennial Report




 Recommendations (Continued)

 Recommendation 5: Curricular goals, possibly
   including a fifth year of high school, should be
   studied for English learners who enter U.S.
   schools during high school. California schools
   should also find further ways to help English
   learners who enter U.S. schools prior to high
   school but continue to have difficulty learning
   English.
       –	 Many English learners simply need more time
       –	 But some students still struggle to become proficient
          in English.

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 Recommendations (Continued)
 Recommendation 6: The state and districts need
   to support additional study of non-academic
   factors that may limit some student’s ability to
   meet the CAHSEE requirement. Procedures
   that are effective in overcoming psychological
   barriers should be identified and disseminated.
       –	 Some students report test anxiety and low 

          motivation as limiting factors.





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 Recommendations (Continued)
 Recommendation 7: California schools and
   districts need to find ways to increase
   graduation rates for low-income and minority
   students.
       –	 Gap reduction has been a priority; gaps in
          graduation rates are a particularly important problem




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 Recommendations (Continued)
 Recommendation 8: The State Board of Education
  should initiate a new review of the CAHSEE
  content requirements. The Board should allow at
  least 3 years for implementation of changes to
  the CAHSEE test specifications, including
  development and field testing of new questions
  and test forms based on the revised
  specifications.
       – It has been over a decade since the HSEE panel
         began consideration of CAHSEE content.
       – Recent common core standards for college and work
         readiness might be considered in reviewing CAHSEE
         content requirement.
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