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					               Fair Compromise




  Fair Compromise
         in a
Morally Complex World
                                                                 Fair Compromise


Apéritif. Assigned Amounts as Natural Resource

• Transfers are resource transfers not to be compared with develop. assistance

• Resource Interpretation is not tied to ex ante determination of AAs; e.g.

                                  Population Baseline
                                                  Baseline  Global GHG Cap
                                                                            Commit. Period
Assigned Amount (Per Capita) =
                               Global Population

 Global GHG Cap Commit. Period = Reduced Baseline Emission Intensity  Ex Post GDP

                                        Global GHG emissions Baseline   
                                  R% 
                                                                          Global GDP Commit. Period
                                                                         
                                             Global GDP Baseline        

                                                                   Global GDP Commit.Per iod 
                                                                   Global GDP Baseline   R%
                                 Global GHG emissions Baseline                             
                                                                                             

                                = Grandfathering  GDP Growth  R%
                                                                    Fair Compromise



Le Repas. Distributing a ‘Cake’ in a Morally Ambiguous Context


                 Per Capita                                            Grandfathering
          1995 population shares                                   1995 energy emission shares
                     USA   Economies in
                            Transition                             LDCs India        USA
         India       5%                    Rest of     Rest of
                               7% EU                                6%   4%          21%
         16%                               Annex I   non-Annex I
                                     7%
                                             9%         10%
                                           MENA
LDCs                                                  China                                   Economies
                                            5%
 22%                                                  14%                                    in Transition
                                                                                                 17%
                                   China              MENA
         Rest of                                                    Rest of        EU
                                   21%                 6%
       non-Annex I                                                  Annex I       13%
           10%                                                        9%




                 Annex I:     22%                                      Annex I:     61%
                 non-Annex I: 78%                                      non-Annex I: 39%
                                      Fair Compromise


A ‘Mixed’ Compromise Solution


          Ck = Compromise share of Party k

          Ck = wGF GFk + wPC PCk


         GFk = k’s Grandfathering share
         PCk = k’s Per Capita share

                wGF + wPC = 1
                                                       Fair Compromise

Social Preference Score Weightings I

                                           Preference Scores
Annex I   # of Parties                 Per Capita     Grandfathering
USA             1                          0               X 50
                                                            1
Japan           1                          0                1
EU           15+1                          0               16
EIT            21                          0               21
Rest            9                          0                9
non-Annex I
China           1                          X 23 + 5
                                           1                 0
India           1                          X 25 + 7
                                           1                 0
LDCs           95                          95                0
Rest           19                          19                0
MENA           15                          0                15

Total                                      XX
                                          116 174 :          X
                                                            63 113

                                          wPC 0.61        wGF 0.39
            Preference Score Weights       X X
                                         0.65 .51           X X
                                                          0.35 .49
                                                Fair Compromise

Social Preference Score Weightings II

               2005 Population*       Preference Scores
Annex I                           Per Capita   Grandfathering
USA                      292m         0              X 292m
                                                     1
JPN                      127m         0            127m
EUM                      378m         0            378m
EIT                      391m         0            391m
Rest                      12m         0             12m
non-Annex I
CHN                      1,304m     1,304           0
IND                      1,082m     1,082           0
LDCs                     1,569m     1,569           0
Rest                      944m       944            0
MENA                      335m         0           335m

Total                    6,491m     4,900         1,591m

                                     wPC           wGF
        PreferenceScore Weights     0.75           0.25
* UN Medium Projection
                                                                  Fair Compromise



         Per Capita                                                Grandfathering




Non-Annex I: 78%   Annex I: 22%                         Non-Annex I: 39%   Annex I: 61%


                    ¾               Preference Score                   ¼
                                            USA    Economies in
                                    India   9%      Transition
                                    13%                9%

                       LDCs                               EU
                        18%                               8% Rest of
                                                             Annex I
                                                               9%
                        Rest of                           MENA
                      non-Annex I              China       5%
                         10%                   20%


                                       Annex I:     31%
                                       non-Annex I: 69%
                                 Fair Compromise


Digestif ‘Back to the Present’

PP-Principle
Polluter Pays Principle

PA-Principle
Polluter Acts Principle

PAF-Principle
Polluter Acts First Principle

				
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