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					                                                                            Global Market Report –Saudi Arabia

                           Saudi Market Performance & Profitability – 2008

                           Saudi Market Performance
                            The year 2008 was a hard year for stock markets around the world and the Saudi bourse was no
                            exception. During the last quarter of the year 2008, Saudi stocks tracked the sharp fall in
                            international oil prices and faced the prospect of a regional economic slowdown amid a global
                            financial crisis. Tadawul All-Share Index (TASI), the Saudi market benchmark, registered 56.49
                            percent in annual losses for the year 2008. The market capitalization, including the new listings,
                            stood at SR924.53bn on December 31, 2008 compared to SR1,947.21bn at the start of the year,
                            as investors’ wealth declined by 52.52 percent.
     KSA Market Report




                            Graph 1: Saudi Tadawul All Share Index & trading volume
                              mn Shares                    Tadawul All Share Index 2004 - 2008
                             600                                                                                            25000
                             500                                                                                            20000
                             400
                                                                                                                            15000
                             300
                                                                                                                            10000
                             200
                             100                                                                                            5000

                               0                                                                                            0
                                12/03      06/04   12/04   06/05    12/05   06/06   12/06      06/07    12/07   06/08   12/08
                                                            Volume            Tadawul All Share Index

                            Source: Tadawul

                            The overall trading activity also declined during 2008. Total volume of traded shares dropped by
                            3.32 percent, with 59.68bn shares traded on the exchange, at an aggregate value of SR1,962.95bn,
                            down by 23.25 percent when compared to SR2,557.71bn in 2007. Alinma Bank was the most
                            traded stock during the year 2008, constituting over 13 percent of total volume of shares traded
                            on the bourse. Although it was listed in the second half of the year, investors exchanged 7.79bn
                            of the bank’s shares, at an aggregate value of SR30.22bn.

                            Table 01: Trading Activity in the Saudi Market
                                                                        Volume (mn          Transactions        Tadawul Annual
                                    Year            Value (SR bn)
                                                                          shares)               (mn)              performance
                             2004                            1,773.86         61,050.80               13.32          84.93%
                             2005                            4,138.70         70,812.73               46.61         103.66%
Omar M. El-Quqa, CFA         2006                            5,261.85         72,741.32               96.10         -52.53%
Executive Vice President
omar@global.com.kw           2007                            2,557.71         61,732.50               65.67          40.87%
Phone No:(965)22951110
                             2008                            1,962.95         59,682.60               52.14         -57.02%
Faisal Hasan, CFA
Head of Research            Source: Tadawul & Global Research
fhasan@global.com.kw
Phone No:(965)22951270
                            Sectoral Performance
Rasha Al-Huneidi            Though Insurance and Multi-Investment sectors registered massive falls of 73.67% and 67.01%
Assistant Vice President
huneidi@global.com.kw
                            respectively in 2008 due to the presence of large investment portfolios on their balance sheets, it
Phone No:(965)22951285      were the heavy weights of the index, banking and petrochemical sectors with a combined market
Dalia El-Shinnawy
                            capitalization of 56.6%, which pulled down the index. Petro-chemical industry lost 66.5% in
Senior Financial Analyst    2008 while the banking sector lost 55.49 percent. Telecommunications and IT sector, the third
dshinnawy@global.com.kw
PhoneNo:(965)22951286
                            largest constituent of the index, accounting for 14.6% of total market capitalization, witnessed a
                            decline of 50.69% in 2008.
                                                                           Global Market Report –Saudi Arabia

                    Table 02: Tadawul Sectoral Performance& Market Cap. Change in 2008
                                                          % of total market        % of total market     Market Cap %            Index %
                                  Index
                                                        capitalization Dec 2008 capitalization Dec. 2007 Change in 2008           change
                    Banks & Financial Services Index             31.10%                  29.98%             -50.74%               -55.49%
                    Petrochemical Industries Index               25.62%                  34.40%             -64.64%               -66.52%
                    Cement Index                                  3.49%                   3.85%             -56.90%               -57.82%
                    Retail Index                                  1.14%                   0.79%             -30.98%               -31.94%
                    Energy & Utilities Index                      4.31%                   3.34%             -38.79%               -39.17%
                    Agriculture & Food Industries Index           3.70%                   2.33%             -24.40%               -32.66%
                    Telecommunication & IT Index                 14.58%                  10.49%             -34.00%               -50.69%
                    Insurance Index                               1.15%                   1.59%             -65.65%               -73.67%
                    Multi - Investment Index                      3.61%                   4.64%             -63.04%               -67.01%
                    Industrial Investment Index                   2.45%                   0.84%              39.39%               -46.55%
                    Building & Construction Index                 2.41%                   1.52%             -24.49%               -42.94%
                    Real Estate Development Index                 5.10%                   5.05%             -52.02%               -52.12%
                    Transport Index                               0.76%                   0.67%             -46.38%               -45.25%
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                    Media & Publishing Index                      0.37%                   0.40%             -55.81%               -55.21%
                    Hotels & Tourism Index                        0.19%                   0.13%             -30.05%               -35.64%
                    Source: Tadawul & Global Research

                    IPOs and New listings during the year 2008
                    The number of companies offered part of their shares to investors through an Initial Public
                    Offering (IPO) reached 13 companies during the year 2008, with consolidated share capital of
                    SR52.3bn. The size of those offerings combined reached 2.63bn shares with a total offer value of
                    SR36.39bn. This shows a downtrend from 2007 levels, which witnessed the offering of 25 IPOs
                    at a combined share capital of SR94.8bn.

                    All 13 companies (in addition to three more) were listed for trading in 2008, bringing the total
                    number of listed stocks to 127. The following table includes detailed information on 2008 new
                    listings.

                    Table 03: New listings at the Saudi Stock Market during 2008
                                                                                                      Offer price       price on
                                  Company                           Sector             Listing date                               % Change
                                                                                                       SR/ share 31/12/2008 (SR)
                    Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical       Petrochemical Industries     27/01/08              21           15.55 -25.95%
                    Arabia Insurance Cooperative            Insurance                    04/02/08              10            13.2   32.00%
                    Trade Union Cooperative Insurance       Insurance                    09/02/08              10            12.8    28.00%
                    Al Sagr Cooperative Insurance           Insurance                    10/02/08              10            12.1    21.00%
                    Zain KSA                                Telecom                      22/03/08              10           10.65     6.50%
                    Bupa Arabia for Cooperative Insurance   Insurance                    17/05/08              10           11.95    19.50%
                    Saudi Re for Cooperative Insurance      Insurance                    24/05/08              10             8.8 -12.00%
                    Mohammad Al Mojil Group                 Building & Construction      26/05/08              70            44.1 -37.00%
                    Alinma Bank                             Banking                      03/06/08              10            11.1    11.00%
                    Basic Chemical Industries               Industrial Investment        16/06/08              30            23.8 -20.67%
                    United Cooperative Assurance            Insurance                    21/06/08              10            35.2 252.00%
                    Abdullah Al Othaim Markets              Retail                       14/07/08              40              40     0.00%
                    Halwani Bros Company                    Agriculture & Food           16/07/08              20            20.6     3.00%
                    Saudi Arabian Mining                    Industrial Investment        27/07/08              20           10.65 -46.75%
                    Astra Industrial Group                  Industrial Investment        18/08/08              42           24.45 -41.79%
                    Methanol Chemicals                      Petrochemical Industries     16/09/08              12           11.15    -7.08%
                    Source: Tadawul & Global Research
                                                                Global Market Report –Saudi Arabia

                     Major Highlights of the year 2008
                     - Re-structuring the market’s sectors and indices to become 15 instead of 8 and to calculate the
                       market’s index based on free-floated shares effective April 05, 2008.
                     - Tadawul started displaying the substantial shareholdings of listed companies on its website of
                       shareholders who own 5% or more of each listed company effective August 16, 2008.
                     - Capital Market Authority (CMA) issued board resolution allowing authorized persons to enter
                       swap agreements with non-resident foreign investors to transfer economic benefits to the Saudi
                       companies’ shares listed on Tadawul, while retaining legal ownership of the shares, effective
                       August 18, 2008.
                     - Tadawul implemented new tick size effective September 13, 2008.

                    Saudi Market Pforitability
                     Saudi corporate profit margins fell in the fourth quarter of last year after companies started to
                     feel the impact of declining oil prices and the overall economic slowdown.

                     Overall profitability decreased by 7.57% in 2008 compared to the corresponding period last year.
                     Those results excludes losses registered by Kingdom Holding Company and newly listed, non
KSA Market Report




                     operational insurance stocks. Kingdom Holding’s net losses for the financial year 2008 stood at
                     SR29.9bn compared to SR1.21bn profits in 2007.

                     Table 04: Saudi Arabia Corporate Profitability
                     Market Sectors                           2008 (SR mn)            2007 (SR mn)         Change %
                     Petrochemicals                                 26,847.96             30,465.17          -11.87%
                     Banking                                        24,304.00             24,160.90            0.59%
                     Telecommunications                             13,139.00             13,402.00           -1.96%
                     Cement                                          4,002.87              4,477.19          -10.59%
                     Real Estate                                     2,406.40              2,680.29          -10.22%
                     Building and Construction                       2,256.01              1,320.58           70.83%
                     Agriculture & Food                              1,414.27              2,149.45          -34.20%
                     Industrial investment                           1,179.26               637.60            84.95%
                     Energy & Utilities                              1,149.80              1,528.20          -24.76%
                     Transport                                         865.69               614.18            40.95%
                     Retail                                            723.79               640.40            13.02%
                     Media and Publishing                              397.10               522.40           -23.99%
                     Hotel and Tourism                                 123.55                 79.71           54.98%
                     Insurance                                          67.00               525.00           -87.24%
                     Multi-investment                                 (484.08)             1,703.18                 -
                     Market                                        78,392.62             84,906.26             7.57%
                     Source: Tadawul

                     Among the sectors, banking and petrochemical sector amount to 65% of the total corporate
                     profitability as compared to 64% in FY2007. The sector which witnessed the highest profitability
                     drop was multi-investment sector followed by insurance and agriculture/food sector. While the
                     sector which witnessed the most increase was industrial investment sector followed by
                     building/construction sector & hotel/tourism sector.

                     Financial Sector
                     Saudi banking sector despite some dampening effects in 4Q08 remains an attractive destination
                     for financial institutions worldwide. During the previous quarter (3Q08), the Saudi banking
                     sector managed to escape severe repercussions at the time of global financial distress due to
                     limited exposure to the global financial markets. However, the fourth quarter results negatively
                     affected the overall performance of the year 2008. The consolidated net profits of the banking
                     sector posted a marginal growth of 0.6% in FY2008. The bank’s profitability growth retreated
                     considerably in the fourth quarter of the year on the account of investment portfolio losses and
                     increase in provisions booked to confront the drop in the local and global stock markets.
                                                                Global Market Report –Saudi Arabia
                    Al Rajhi Bank with 4Q08 net profit of SR1.4bn and FY08 profitability of SR6.5bn led the
                    banking sector performance in both fourth quarter and annual results. Overall, the market heavy
                    weights on full year basis (FY08) posted mixed results with Al Rajhi Bank and Saudi British Bank
                    recording an increase of 1.2% and 12.0%, respectively; while SAMBA Financial Group and Riyad
                    Bank posted decline of 7.5% and 12.4%, respectively. Most of the banks learning from the
                    experience of lower fee based income in 2007 (due to then dampened stock market activity)
                    embarked on plans to decrease dependence on revenue from equity market activity. However,
                    before they could considerably diversify their revenue sources, the 2008 downturn in global
                    markets is believed to have a significant impact on investment portfolios.

                    Although 4Q08 banking results reflected some dampening effects mainly due to setting aside of
                    higher financial allocations in consideration to market conditions, the overall good asset quality
                    of the Saudi banking sector is maintained with well provisioned banks’ balance sheets and not
                    reporting of even a single bail out during 2008 global crisis. The supportive domestic economic
                    measures & positive developments in global financial arena, coupled with banks’ restructuring
                    plans and efforts to lower dependence on revenues from equity markets provide a window for
                    modest performance by the banking sector in 2009.

                    The insurance sector witnessed a massive decline of 87.24% in 2008 due to high exposures in
                    equity instruments. National Company for Cooperative Insurance (NCCI) profit declined by
KSA Market Report




                    87.24% to SR102mn accounting for bulk of the decline. However, the insurance sector witnessed
                    the largest number of listings during the year with 6 new listings.

                    Profitability of the Multi-Investment Sector was affected heavily by losses incurred by Kingdom
                    Holding Company. However, even after discount the company’s exceptional losses, the sector as
                    a whole incurred losses of SR484.80mn in FY2008 compared to gains of SR1,703.18mn gains in
                    FY2007. Kingdom Holding Company incurred a net loss of SR30.98bn in the fourth quarter
                    compared with a net profit of SR255.6mn a year earlier. The net loss is due to investment losses
                    in stock markets. Full-year net losses totaled SR29.9bn compared with a net profit of SR1.21bn
                    in 2007.

                    Energy & Petrochemical Sector
                    Petrochemical sector during the 9M-2008 was enjoying higher profitability growth on the back of
                    sky high oil prices. Moreover, the leading players were the major beneficiary of such growth in
                    sector as the sector growth was leaded by these big companies like SABIC, SAFCO and
                    SIPCHEM. However, the global economic and financial situation started deteriorating and
                    rapidly entered in worst zone during 4Q-2008. This led to crisis like situation in oil market and
                    plummeted 9M-2008 average crude oil prices of US$107.8 per barrel to 4Q-2008 average crude
                    oil price of US$54.8 per barrel.

                    The slump in crude oil prices during 4Q-2008 totally reversed the outlook for petrochemical
                    sector and the sector faced huge decline in its profitability. Moreover, the falling crude oil prices
                    has impact more on the large players profitability like SABIC where the PAT fell by 95.7% as
                    compared to 3Q-2008 PAT of SR7.2bn. On the other hand, SIPCHEM and SAFCO profitability
                    witnessed a remarkable fall of 74.5% and 70.7% in 4Q-2008 PAT as compared to 3Q-2008.

                    Furthermore, the decline in profitability is not only attributed towards the fall in crude oil prices
                    but also to the global economic slump which led to a decline in the demand of various
                    petrochemical products, metals and more specifically steel. In addition, the decline in top line of
                    the sector while raising cost of expansion was another factor that contributed to the tumult.

                    Going forward, we expect a recovery in economic and financial situation from current level will
                    lead to drag the OPEC crude oil prices from current prices of US$42.0 per barrel (as on 30th Jan
                    2009) and range in between the levels of US$55-US$60 per barrel during 2009-12.

                    Within the Petrochemical Industry Sector, Advanced Polypropylene Company (APC) registered
                    a massive rise in profitability in FY2008 with an increase of 9904.76%, reaching SR210.10mn by
                    the end of FY2008 from SR2.10mn in 2007. The reason for the sharp upsurge in full-year net
                                                                Global Market Report –Saudi Arabia

                    profit can be attributed to the fact that the company started its sales operations in 2008 while it
                    was at the construction stage in the previous period. It is worth noting that despite the
                    skyrocketing annual profits, APC’s fourth-quarter net loss widened to SR76.1mn from a loss of
                    SR79,000 a year earlier due to a decline in global petrochemicals' prices over that period.

                    Energy & Utilities sector witnessed a 24.26% decline in 2008 profitability. Saudi Electricity
                    Company narrowed its net loss 32% to SR436mn during the fourth quarter from a net loss of
                    SR643mn in the corresponding period of last year. The company’s full-year net profit fell 24% to
                    SR1.08bn in 2008 from SR1.41bn in 2007. The decline in full-year net profit is due to rising
                    personnel and some operating expenses.

                    Cement & Building Materials Sector
                    Cement sector witnessed a decline in profitability by 10.5% in FY2008 mainly due to a ban on
                    exports which was imposed in June 2008 to cater for strong local demand. Additionally, the
                    slow- down of the real estate sector added to the sector’s pains. All eight listed companies within
                    this sector witnessed their profitability decline in FY2008, except Southern Province Cement
                    Company. Southern Province Cement Company witnessed 12.4 percent YoY increase in profits.
                    The company’s net profit was buoyed by a rise in sales and income from other operations.
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                    The assets of the eight listed cement companies in the Kingdom perched over SR23bn as
                    compared to SR21bn at the end of FY2007. Sector liabilities as a percentage of the total assets
                    increased from 20% in FY2007 to 24% in FY2008. The sector is comparatively less leveraged
                    and does not face any financial problem in a global recessionary environment.

                    On an overall basis the average cement prices rose 3.5% in FY2008 to SR264/ton as compared
                    to SR254/ton in FY2007. The cost per ton of cement companies in the Kingdom rose 15% in
                    FY2008 to SR31/ton as against SR26.5/ton in FY2007. Despite all the beatings, Saudi cement
                    sector enjoys maximum profitability margins in the region. Nevertheless its gross margins in
                    FY2008 declined to 56% as compared to 61% in FY2007. The operating and net margins also
                    declined in unison to the decline in gross margins and were down by 5% and 6% in 2008 to 53%
                    and 52% respectively. Return on equity took a much higher toll as it went to down to 74% from
                    105% in 2007 while return on assets went down to 18% from 21% in 2007.

                    The ban on exports resulted in an export volume drop of 30% to 2.4mn tons as compared to
                    3.5mn tons in 2007. On the other hand slowdown in the local real estate and construction sector
                    dropped the local deliveries to 26.5mn tons as against 26.8mn tons in 2007.

                    On the whole, cement sales in the Kingdom amounted to 29.8mn tons in 2008 as against 26.8mn
                    tons in 2007. Four new companies initiated commercial production in 2008 namely, Riyadh,
                    Najran, Madina and Western cement. 11% of the local deliveries and 13% of the exports were
                    taken away by the new entrants, eating up the market share of the previous companies.

                    Building and Construction Sector profitability increased by 70.83% in the same period. The
                    profitability of the sector has largely been driven by increase in profitability of Saudi Arabian
                    Amiantit Company by 266.61% to SR235mn and increase in profitability by 85.08% to
                    SR217.1mn of Red Sea Housing Company.

                    Telecommunications Sector
                    The Saudi telecom market is the largest by size in the GCC region. The mobile market has been
                    growing rapidly in recent years breaching the 100% penetration mark. However, growth in fixed
                    lines services has been stagnant. Saudi Telecom Company (STC) had a full monopoly over the
                    mobile market until 2003, when the second mobile license was granted in 2004 to Etihad Etisalat
                    Company (Mobily). In March 2007, a consortium led by Zain of Kuwait won the third mobile
                    license with a bid of US$6.1bn. Zain Saudi launched its services in Q4 2008. The fixed market
                    was liberalized when three consortia- led by Bahrain Telecommunications (Batelco), Hong
                    Kong's PCCW and US based Verizon Communications won three fixed line licenses in April
                    2007, bringing the total number of fixed line licenses in the kingdom to four and ending STC's
                    monopoly over fixed lines.
                                                                 Global Market Report –Saudi Arabia
                    During 2008, the Saudi telecom sector witnessed a drop of 1.96% in profitability on a y-o-y basis,
                    largely driven by the drop in STC’s profitability in 2008. STC’s full-year net profit fell 8.1% to
                    SR11.05bn from SR12.02bn a year earlier, while Mobily’s net profit jumped by 51.6% on y-o-y
                    basis to reach SR2.1bn in 2008. STC’s share in the sector’s profitability (consisting of STC and
                    Mobily profits) declined from 90% in 2007 to 84% in 2008.

                    Saudi Telecom fourth-quarter net profit witnessed a great hit, dropping by 61.9% to SR1.17bn
                    from SR3.06bn in Q4 2007. The company attributed the drop to forex losses of SR2bn. Saudi
                    Telecom (STC) which lost its monopoly in both the mobile and fixed market, have expanding
                    outside its home market beginning with the Maxis deal which gave STC foothold in Malaysia,
                    India, and Indonesia. Later, STC won the bid for a 26% stake in Kuwait's third mobile service
                    operator. It also acquired a 35% stake in Oger Telecom, which gave STC presence in Turkey and
                    South Africa. We believe that currency depreciation in the foreign markets in which STC
                    operates have greatly affected the company’s revenues in Q4 2008. Total revenues for the full
                    year 2008, witnessed an increase of 37.7% on a y-o-y basis. STC’s EBITDA margin dropped
                    from 48.5% in 2007 to 42.8% in 2008.

                    Etihad Etisalat Company (Mobily), Saudi's second mobile operator, saw its fourth quarter net
                    profit rose above 51% to SR778mn. The company which is a pure domestic operator was able to
                    withstand the effects of the global financial crisis. Mobily’s total revenues soared 28% to
KSA Market Report




                    SR10.8bn. EBITDA margin increased from 34.9% in 2007 to 35.1% in 2008. The company
                    attributed the increase in profit to the growth in subscribers and demand for broadband services.
                    Mobily has been keen on strengthening its position in the broadband market. In 2007, the
                    company acquired a 99.9% stake of the local data provider Bayanat Al-Oula, and set up Mobily
                    InfoTech, a fully owned subsidiary in India, which will provide information technology and
                    consulting services. In addition, it acquired 96% of Zagel International Communication Network
                    Company which is specialized in providing internet services in Saudi Arabia.

                    Table 5: Top Companies in Terms of Maket Capitalization
                                                                            Profitability (SR mn)        Profit Growth (%)
                                        Company                 Market Cap   Full year      Full year
                                                                                                          Annual       QoQ
                                                                   (%)            2008           2007
                    Saudi Basic Industries Corporation              16.71% 22,000.00        27,022.27     -18.59%    -95.72%
                    Saudi Telecom Co.                               10.62% 11,047.00        12,022.00      -8.11%    -61.29%
                    Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corporation         9.09%   6,525.00       6,450.00       1.16%    -18.95%
                    SAMBA Financial Group                             4.99%   4,454.00       4,828.00      -7.75%    -31.34%
                    Saudi Electricity                                 4.17%   1,075.00       1,412.00     -23.87%       -
                    The Saudi British Bank                            3.50%   2,920.00       2,607.00      12.01%     -7.61%
                    Riyad Bank                                        3.44%   2,639.00       3,011.30     -12.36%      3.20%
                    Kingdom Holding Company                           3.20% (29,911.00)      1,210.00        -          -
                    Banque Saudi Fransi                               2.74%   2,806.00       2,711.00       3.50%    -21.49%
                    Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Co.                      2.43%   4,280.00       2,207.80      93.86%    -70.71%
                    Ettihad Etisalat                                  2.35%   2,092.00       1,380.00      51.59%     44.34%
                    Arab National Bank                                2.19%   2,486.00       2,416.00       2.90%    -30.89%
                    Alinma Bank                                       1.80%     390.00         -             -          -
                    Dar Alarkan Real Estate Development Company       1.74%   2,356.20       2,008.60      17.31%     -9.96%
                    Almarai Co.                                       1.65%     910.30         667.30      36.42%    -25.37%
                    Mobile Telecomuniction Saudi                      1.61%     -              -             -          -
                    Saudi Kayan Petrochemical Company!                1.58%     494.08                       -      -133.74%
                    Jabal Omar Development Company                    1.47%     (37.60)        -             -          -
                    Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical Co              1.47% (1,256.00)        (443.00)       -          -
                    SAVOLA Group                                      1.31%     202.00       1,230.00    -83.58%        -
                    Total                                           78.08% 35,471.98        70,740.27     -49.86%
                    Source: Tadawul & Global Research
                    ! Profits for 19 months since inception
                                                                                             Global Market Report –Saudi Arabia
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                     Alternative Investment                                     Research                                               Index
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