Black Sea region Development of sunseed production and crushing by whoodeewhoo

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									   Black Sea region:
Development of sunseed
production and crushing
                                   Sergey Feofilov
                                    UkrAgroConsult
         Prepared for the Second Seminar
“Policy Options for the Ukrainian Sunflower Sector”
                     April 2005
                GDP growth rates
                    (Persentage change in real terms)


    16
    14
    12
    10
     8
     6
     4
     2
     0
    -2   1998       1999     2000    2001   2002   2003     2004   2005
    -4
    -6
    -8


         Bulgaria          Ukraine     Romania     Russia      Kazakhstan




2
          Black Sea Region: Sunflower Yields, MT/ha

    1,8


    1,6


    1,4


    1,2


     1


    0,8


    0,6
           2001/02             2002/03       2003/04    2004/05     2005/06*

                     Ukraine        Russia    Romania   Bulgaria   Moldova




3
    Black Sea Region: total sunseed production and crushing,
                              KMT
      14000
      12000
      10000
       8000
       6000
       4000
       2000
         0
              2001/02   2002/03    2003/04       2004/05   2005/06*

                              Production   Crushing




4
      Black Sea Region: sunseed production, KMT

    5000
    4500
    4000
    3500
    3000
    2500
    2000
    1500
    1000
     500
       0
           2001/02        2002/03     2003/04      2004/05      2005/06*

                Ukraine     Russia   Romania    Bulgaria   Moldova




5
           Black Sea Region: sunoil exports, MT

    1000

    800

    600

    400

    200

      0
           2001/02     2002/03            2003/04    2004/05

                      Ukraine    Russia    Romania




6
          Sunoil production and export, MMT
    3,5                                                                                    1,2


     3
                                                                                           1

    2,5
                                                                                           0,8

     2
                                                                                           0,6
    1,5

                                                                                           0,4
     1

                                                                                           0,2
    0,5


     0                                                                                     0
            2002/2003        2003/2004       2004/2005    2005/2006
          Total sunoil production in Ukraine and Russia   Sunoil production in Argentina

          Total sunoil export from Ukraine and Russia     Sunoil export from Argentina


7
    Ukraine: Forecast of the 2005 grain and sunseed production

                           2005*                         2004
                                            UkrAgroConsult   Official statistics
    Wheat                       17 250              16 529               17 518
    Barley                         8 340            10 615               11 069
    Corn                           5 150             5 300                8 793
    Rye                            1 135             1 398                1 592
    Oats                            920                997                1 006
    Feed peas                       827                603                  600
    Other                          1 543               865                1 140
            Total grain         35 165              36 307               41 718
    Sunseed               3 800 – 4 000              3 395                3 052
                                      * forecast




8
    New drivers in ag production in
       the Black Sea countries

          Investments in the agrarian sector

          Behavior of farmers was modified

          Development of export aimed infrastructure
           of the market

          Currency exchange factor

          Increase in the government support


9
     Investments in the agrarian
               sector

         Growth of input usage

         Lower dependence on weather

         Stabilization of production

         Increase in grain export potential




10
     Ukraine: Wholesale prices for heavy fuel




11
       Black Sea Region: Main operators of
              sunseed/sunoil market

     Ukraine / Украина        Russia / Россия
     Зерноторговая компания   Русагро
     Каргилл                  Солнечные продукты
     Бунге                    Астон
     Евротек                  Юг Руси
     Запорожский МЖК          ОГО
     Одесский МЖК             Нижегородский МЖК
     Пологовский МЭЗ          WJ
     Кернел Групп             Эфко



12
                                ROMANIA
 Stockholder                            Edible oil producers
                                        Unirea SA in Iasi (Eastern Romania)
 Bunge – 40% of the market              Muntenia SA in Buchapest
                                        Interoil SA in Oradea (Western Romania)
 Argus (Romanian) – 20% of the market   Agrus factory in Constanta
                                        Olpo Ulei SA in Podari
 Cargill – 17% of the market
                                        Olpo Ulei SA in Craiova
 Suntory Agrochemical                   Agricover SA

                                BULGARIA
 Stockholder                            Edible oil producers
 Bunge – 30% of the market              Kaliakra in Dobrich
 Papas Olio – 23% of the market         Oil plant in Yambol
 Biser Oliva – 18% of the market        Oil plant in Balchik
 Niva – 10% of the market               Plant in Stara Zagora
 Zlatna Trakia – 3% of the market       Plant in Kostinbrod

13
     Government support to the Ag
              Sector

          Cheaper credits and insurance

          Direct payments per hectare

          Large investment in export logistics




14
     Exchange rate of USD to UAH




15
     Exchange rate of USD to RUR




16
             New markets


      WTO joining


      Closer to consumers and lower freight rates




17
     Ukraine: Sunoil export in 2003/04 season


                              Others
      N. Africa & Near East                          EU 25
                               10%
               13%                                    36%




                  CIS
                                       Switzerland
                  15%
                                          26%




18
     Ukraine: Sunoil export in 2004/05 season
             (September – January)

                                              Others
                N. Africa & Near East           1%
                                                       EU 25
                         23%                            43%




          CIS
          21%




                                Switzerland
                                    12%




19
     Ukraine: Sunoil export in 2003/04 season


                              Others
      N. Africa & Near East                          EU 25
                               10%
               13%                                    36%




                  CIS
                                       Switzerland
                  15%
                                          26%




20
     Argentina: Sunoil export in 2003/04 season


                           Others
                            18%                       EU 25
                                                       29%
          India
           12%




      China
       5%
                                                      N. Africa & Near East
                                                               16%
                  Russia            S. & N. America
                   3%                     18%




21
     Argentina: Sunoil export in 2004/05 season
              (September - January)

                         Others                     EU 25
                          23%                        27%




     India
      4%




        China
         4%




                Russia
                 2%
                                                     N. Africa & Near East
                                  S. & N. America             21%
                                        19%




22
23
                                                                                      105
                                                                                            115
                                                                                                  125
                                                                                                        135




                               -5
                                     5
                                         15
                                              25
                                                   35
                                                        45
                                                             55
                                                                  65
                                                                       75
                                                                            85
                                                                                 95
                           09.2003
                           09.2003
                           10.2003
                           10.2003
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     Domestic operations
                           08.2004
                           08.2004
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                           10.2004
                           10.2004
                           11.2004
                           11.2004
                           12.2004
                           12.2004
                           01.2005
                                                                                                              Ukraine: Crushing margins, $/T




                           01.2005
                           02.2005
                           02.2005
                           03.2005

								
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