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					         Third International Seville Conference on
       Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):
  Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making
                  16th-17th October 2008

Science and Technology Foresight in
Russia: Results of a National Delphi
                                              Alexander Sokolov
                                                Foresight Centre

    Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge

                                    Higher School of Economics
Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi


                            CONTENTS

              General background

              Methodology and implementation
              scheme

              Some results

              Further steps
Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi


  General background
        Concept of Socio-economic Development: 2020


                                                                           Strategies
                                                                           for
                                                                           particular
        Macroeconomic forecast              Foresight for industries       industries




                    S&T Foresight                    Scenarios
                        Delphi




        Strategy of Innovation Development: 2015
Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi


                      Major stages of Delphi

          Preliminary desk research
          Socio-economic objectives
          Selection of experts
          Identification of thematic areas
          Delphi topics
          Survey methodologies
          Expert panels
          Data analysis
          Discussion and dissemination of results
Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi


         Preliminary desk research
       Benchmarking Russia vis-à-vis leading
       countries
       Bibliometric analysis – the most cited experts,
       fast growing R&D areas (research fronts)
       - QUANTUM DOT BIOCONJUGATES; QUANTUM DOTS; INVIVO IMAGING; LIVE
       CELLS; DIAGNOSTICS
       - HIGHLY ORIENTED ZNO NANOROD/NANOTUBE ARRAYS; ULTRATHIN ZNO
       NANOTUBES; THIN ZNO FILM


       Patents – Russia’s positions by technology
       area
       Statistics – resources and R&D capacities
       (personnel, research units, R&D funding,
       output indicators)
Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi


             Socio-economic objectives


        Human potential and increasing quality
        of labour resources
        Economic development
        Institutional development
        Environment and safety issues
Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi


                 Experts
                                                   Delphi survey
                                                                       Over
                                                                       2000
         Research centres
                                                Expert panels
         Universities                                                300
                                                  Experts-
         Business                                Integrators 20

         Government
Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi

                   Thematic Areas
                   (5-8 technology areas and 80-100 topics each)

           1. Information and Telecommunication Systems
           2. Industry of Nanosystems and Materials
           3. Living Systems
           4. Medicine and Health
           5. Rational Use of Natural Resources
           6. Transportation, Aviation and Space Systems
           7. Power Engineering and Energy Saving
           8. Manufacturing Systems
           9. Safety
           10. Technologies for Society
Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi


  Questionnaire and issues covered by the survey




                           • Importance for Russia
                           • Time of realisation
                           • Level of Russian R&D
                           • Leading country
                           • Needed policy measures
                           • Expected results
                           • R&D vs commercial use
Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi


  Regions covered by the survey




          Number of respondents
Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi


  [Header]
 Polymers with increased mechanical
 strength and chemical resistance
                                                   40%




                                                   41%
 Crystals and nanostructured metals with
 increased construction and functional
 propertiesfor transport applications

                                                   31%
 Methods of creation of components for
 nanoelectronics
                                                                                                                   R&D realisation
                                                   34%
 Nanostructured materials and coatings
 for implants

                                                   21%
 Nanomaterials for urgent stopping of
 hemorrhages in emergemcies

                                                   32%
 Materials for alternative sources of
 energy (solar batteries; portable fuel
                                                                                                                                    Commercial
 cells; hydrogen accumulators;
                                                                                                                                     application
 electrochemical and thermoelectrical
 cells; supercondensators et al)

  Time of R&D realisation and commercial
                                                             2014 2015    2016    2017      2018    2019    2020   2021     2022
                               application
                                                                                                                          Expected results
        - Leading   country
 40%   - Level of R&D in Russia
       compared to the world leaders
                                                                Increasing                                     Strengthening
                                       Integration into                                  Resolving social
                                                                domestic                                       position on global
                                       global value chains                               problems
                                                                competitiveness                                markets
Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi


  Nanotechnology and materials: expected results

                                 1. Nanotechnology and nanomaterials



         6. Biocompatible materials                                    2. Polymers and crystals




                                                                       3. Nano- and microsystems
         5. Membranes and catalysts                                    equipment



                                          4. Composites and ceramics



             Positions on world markets                 Global value added chains

              Domestic markets                          Social development
Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi


  Time of realisation: Living Systems

         Biosystems, bioanalytical devices


         Biomedicine and veterinary


         Cell technologies

         Genome and postgenome
         technologies for medicine

         Biosynthesis, biocatalysis,
         metabolic engineering

         Bioengineering


         Bioinformation technologies
Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi


       Level of R&D vs Importance: Living Systems
  Importance for Russia




                                     Level of R&D in Russia compared to the world leaders
                          Realisation time
Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi


                            Further steps

        Finalisation and integration of results

        Wide dissemination and discussion

        Building S&T priorities (Revision of National Critical Technologies: 2009)

        Identification of the areas for the National Innovation Projects

        Fine-tuning the National S&T Programme

        Identification of S&T priority areas for particular industries

				
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