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Estimation of Leakage

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					Methods for Leakage
    Estimation

         Dr. P. Sudha
Centre for Ecological Sciences
 Indian Institute of Science
          Bangalore
Estimation of Leakage

   Concept: Implementation of mitigation
    project should not lead to loss of
    environmental or C-benefits outside
    project boundary
   Definition: “the net anthropogenic
    emissions by sources of GHGs and
    removal by sinks, which occur outside
    the project boundary and which is
    attributable to the (CDM) project
    activity".
Types of Leakage

   Primary leakage
       Shift sources of biomass extraction and
        grazing
       Shifting land conversion
   Secondary leakage
       Incentives leading to increased CO2 emissions
   Positive spill over
   No/Low Leakage Potential
   Moderate/High Leakage Potential
                                                                                P o t e n t i a l m a jo r s o u r c e
                                                                                          o f le ak a g e




                                  L a n d c o n v e rs io n fo r fo o d                                                        B i o m a s s e x t r a c ti o n ;
                                  p r o d u c ti o n o r p a s t u r e , e tc                                                fu e lw o o d , tim b e r, g ra s s




                  P o te n tia l fo r                                    P o te n tia l fo r                       A bo ve grou n d                         A b o v e g ro u n d
                   c o n ve rs i o n                                      c o n ve rs i o n                         b io m a ss L O W                      b io m a s s H I G H
                         H IG H                                                 LO W




C a rb o n d e n s ity             L o w c ar b o n d e n sity ,                                                                         D e p en d e n c e                        D e p en d e n c e
h ig h i n l a n d t o                 p a r t i c u la r ly a b o v e                                                                    f or b iom a ss                          f or b iom a ss
 b e c o n v e rte d                    g r o u n d b io m a s s                                                                               LO W                                     H IG H




                                                                 N O N EED TO                 E S T IM A T E
                                                                                LEA K A G E



                                                                                E S T IM A T E
                                                                                LEA K A G E
Methods for monitoring
leakage
   Monitoring by Area
       Project activity boundaries
       Regional/local boundaries
       Global market boundaries


   Monitoring by Key indicators
     Approach and Methods
   Historical Records: Based on past records
    of land use conversion, tree felling,
       From FD, Land Survey office
   Participatory rural appraisal (PRA):
       Group discussion with local stakeholders using
        maps
       Locations of past and future land conversion
       Locations and extent of fuelwood and timber
        extraction
    Leakage Estimation Resulting from
    Land Conversion

   Estimate the ‘Base-year’ C-stock in different
    land use systems.
       Step 1: Estimate land use pattern - land survey
       Step 2: Estimate C-stock for each LUS by ‘plot
        method’
       Step 3: Through PRA, estimate the potential rates
        of land conversion for each LUS,
       Step 4: Estimate the net loss of C-stock based on C-
        stock in ‘Base-year’
       Step 5: Estimate the aggregate carbon emission due
        to LUS and leakage of carbon benefits for the
        period selected.
 Leakage Estimation Resulting from
 Biomass Extraction

Estimate and locate on a map, different LUS
  likely to be subjected to biomass extraction
  outside the project boundary
Locate LUS already subjected to biomass
  extraction in the project area
Estimate C-stock for ‘Base-year’
Through PRA, estimate the extent of land likely
  to be subjected to extraction of biomass
Using estimates of C-stock in ‘Base-year’ for
  estimate the net loss of C-stock (tC/ha)
Estimate the aggregate carbon emission, due to
  biomass extraction, to obtain total leakage of
  carbon benefits during the period selected.
Leakage of carbon benefits

   Leakage during period selected =
   [(Area converted in each land use
    system) x (C-stock change/ha)] +
    [(Area subjected to biomass
    extraction) x (C-stock change/ha)]
Factors contributing to leakage
     Activity Being Replaced                   Leakage
                                               Potential
       Emission Avoidance (Forest Preservation)
Conventional timber harvest practices   High
Conversion to agriculture

Carbon Sequestration (Agroforestry, improved soil
conservation, woodlots, etc.)

-Current agricultural practices         Moderate
-Fuelwood collection

-Livestock Grazing
Types of projects               Causes of leakage
Forest              Conversion to food production
conservation         stoppage, leading to decrease in
Protected area      food production
Halting             Forest clearing for timber or

deforestation        fuelwood stoppage leads to;
                          Forest conversion to a ranch or
Banning grassland
                         

                         grazing land
or forest land
                         Loss of land for alternate use
conversion               Loss of source of income


                            Loss of food production


   High leakage potential
   Types of projects        Causes of leakage
Afforestation or        Loss of land for
reforestation            conversion to
Watershed protection    agriculture
Agroforestry            Loss or reduction in
 Village ecosystem
                         access to timber or
regeneration             fuelwood
Grassland reclamation
                         Loss or reduction in
/ regeneration           income
                         Loss of grazing land or
                         reduced access
Moderate to low leakage potential
Less relevant, if biomass stock on land is in a
degraded state
    Types of projects       Causes of leakage
Sustainable            Reduction in timber
extraction practices    or fuelwood
Regulated grazing      availability in the
Soil and water
                        short-term
conservation            Reduction in income
                        in the short-term

High potential, if under baseline scenario,
the land is an important source of biomass or
income
    Options for Responding to
    Leakage

   Project-level approaches
   Project design elements incorporated
    in projects
   Re-estimation of net GHG benefits
   Macro-level approaches
       National and regional baselines
       Risk premiums and adjustment
        coefficients

				
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