Natural Gas Data Systems by ukx18840

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									Natural Gas Data Systems

Conceptual Framework
Measurement and Distribution
Current Developments and Changes
               Roy Kass
               Energy Information Administration
               May 1999
                  Generalized Schematic Physical Flow of Natural Gas in U.S.


                                                                 Consumers
Wellhead Production




                         Gas
                                                                  Residential
                         Processing
                         Plant                        Local
                                                      Distrib.    Commercial
                                                      Company
                             Pipeline                             Industrial

                                                                  Elect. Util.
                                        Underground
                                        Storage
       Imports
                                         Generalized Schematic
                                       Sales of Natural Gas in U.S.

                                                               Consumers
Wellhead Production



                      Gas
                                                                 Residential
                      Processing
                      Plant                      Local
                                                 Distrib.        Commercial
                                                 Company
                          Pipeline                               Industrial

                                                                 Elect. Util.
                                   Underground
                                   Storage
      Imports
                                           Third Party
                                            (Marketer, Broker)
                   Measurement and
                     Dissemination
                  of Natural Gas Data
Production

Storage

Consumption by Residential, Commercial, Industrial

Consumption by Regulated Utilities

Consumption by Other Electric Generation

Transportation
                       Measurement and
                         Dissemination
                      of Natural Gas Data

Overarching Fact of Natural Gas Data Surveys:

Respondents are companies that physically deliver the
gas and who report on a “custody” or physical delivery
basis.
                 Natural Gas Production
Measured By
  Survey of Producing States and Mineral Management Service




Disseminated Through
   “Evolving Estimate” in Natural Gas Monthly. Full data
   are not complete until the Fall of the following year
                 Underground Natural Gas
                         Storage
Measured By
 Monthly Survey of Storage Field Operators --
 asking injections, withdrawals, base gas, working
 gas.
 Confidential Survey
Disseminated Through
 State- and National-level aggregates published in
 Natural Gas Monthly
                Residential, Commercial
                     and Industrial
                     Consumption
Measured By
   Monthly Survey of 400 Company/States
    (Delivered to End Users)
    Confidential Survey

Disseminated Through
    Aggregated by State and Nation in Natural Gas Monthly
     Volumes by Sector
     Price (onsystem sales only) by Sector
               Consumption at Regulated
                   Electric Utilities
Measured By
   Surveys of Regulated Electric Utilities
    One focusses on volumes consumed
    Another focusses on price of fuel consumed

Disseminated Through
    Aggregated by State and Nation in Natural Gas Monthly
     Volumes consumed by Electric Utilities
     Price of fuel used in generation by Electric Utilities
               Volumes and Prices: Special
                Datasets for Monthly Data

Measured By
     Monthly Surveys already noted


Disseminated Through
      Special datasets on Web
       Text files for Total United States
       Flat files with synopsis of State x Sector volumes,
              prices and percentage onsystem sales
                  Annual State-To-State
                         Flows
Measured By
   Annual Survey of Entire Natural Gas Industry
   Not Confidential


Disseminated Through
     State Level Aggregates -- Natural Gas Annual

    Micro Level Responses -- EIA-176 Query System
                     Measurement and
                  Aggregation of Annual
                 Supply, Disposition, Prices
Measured By
   Annual Survey of Entire Natural Gas Industry
   Not Confidential


Disseminated Through
    National, Regional, and State Level Aggregation --
    Natural Gas Annual and Historical Natural Gas
    Annual
                   Measurement and Respondent-level
                    Dissemination:Annual Supply,
                          Disposition, Prices
Measured By
   Annual Survey of Entire Natural Gas Industry
   Not Confidential


Disseminated Through
     Micro-level database -- EIA176 Query System
                  Natural Gas Data Systems
                        Development

With changes in the regulatory and financial environment,
EIA’s natural gas systems are increasingly unable to
successfully measure the industry


    * Separation of equity from custody flows

    * Rise of Actors outside the scope of current systems

    * Development of new phenomena such as market hubs
Percentage of Natural Gas Deliveries For Which Price is
          Measured, By Sector: 1984 forward
                                  History                       Projections
          Restructuring

100%

 80%

 60%

 40%

 20%

 0%
       1984        1987         1990         1993        1996     2000

                          Residential Commercial Industrial
            NEXT GENERATION *
            NATURAL GAS (NG)2



A project to design and implement a
 new, comprehensive information
  program for natural gas to meet
   customer requirements in the
       post-2000 time frame.
                        NEXT GENERATION * NATURAL GAS

                        Problems with EIA‟s Current Natural Gas
                        Information Program


The data collection program currently in place was designed before industry
restructuring

Changes in the regulatory environment and industry restructuring have
challenged EIA’s ability to provide information on the natural gas industry

EIA captured only 15 % of industrial prices in 1998 compared with 75 % in 1984

With customer choice program underway for residential and small commercial
consumers, coverage of prices paid by those consumers will likely decline as
well

There is currently no coverage of many new transportation and marketing
activities which have developed in the energy market.
                         Next Generation * Natural Gas
                                  Project Overview


Data Requirements


                                                        Industry
                                                       Conceptual
                                                         Design

             Information Collection
                   Redesign




                                      Cognitive and
                                      Pilot Testing


    Focus Group
      Report
                                                      Implementation
                             Next Generation * Natural Gas
                                     Data Requirements

Determine Initial                                   Industry
 Requirements                                      Conceptual
    4/30/99                                          Design

               Refine Requirements
                   (within EIA)
                      8/1/99
                                                                  Quality Assurance
                                                                      Projects
                               Secure Buy-In for
                               Data Requirements
                                 (Outside EIA)
                                     3/1/00
Focus Group                                         Finalize Data
  Report                                            Requirements
                                                       4/1/00



                                                                Operationalize Data
                                                                  Requirements
                                                                      6/1/00
                     NEXT GENERATION * NATURAL GAS



Focus Groups: 1998                 Executive Interviews: 1998 & 1999

1.  NARUC Gas Committee
                                   1.   GasMart Conference
2.  EIA Staff
                                   2.   Media
3.  Gas Industry Standards Board
                                   3.   Trade Groups
4.  Academics, Consultants, and
                                   4.   Congressional
    Attorneys
                                   5.   Consultants
5. Federal Officials
                                   6.   Investment Community
6. GasMart Conference
7. Energy Mix at University of
    Houston
8. American Public Gas
    Association (small LDCs)
9. DOE NARUC
10. U.S. Association of Energy
    Economists
                                    NEXT GENERATION * NATURAL GAS
                                          Focus Group Highlights


• Market data to assess competitiveness ”Consumers are going to be asking,
    particularly as the direct market more and more encroaches on residential [customers],
    „Why am I paying what I‟m paying, and is it fair?‟”
   information about marketers
   prices, measured at various points
   market forces that drive prices
   the effect of electricity generation on the gas market
•   Pipeline capacity data
•   The role of storage in the deregulated industry ”I would put a big
    emphasis on the storage side ….. There‟s more EIA can do in terms of the price of gas
    going into and out of storage, who it‟s being sold by, who the owners are, how much of
    the capacity is changing hands over the year, who owns it, when they‟re using it on a
    seasonal basis, et cetera.”
• More timely data; real-time market data
                       NEXT GENERATION * NATURAL GAS
                   Data Requirements: What We Have Accomplished to Date




• Gathered customer input through focus groups (10 groups) and
  executive interviews.
• Developed a data requirements database from focus group results.
• Presently conducting meetings to validate and refine requirements for
  the major segments of the natural gas industry.
• Established and presently conducting a “Communications Plan.”
• Established an Intranet site.
• Initiated several data quality and data methodology studies.
                 NEXT GENERATION * NATURAL GAS
               What We Expect to Accomplish by the End of the Year




• Publish a Federal Register Notice seeking
  comments on the natural gas information program
• Develop a retail unbundling status report by State
• Establish an Internet Website
• Refine the data requirements
• Initiate discussions with customers to seek buy-in
  for data requirements

								
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