Climate Change Effects on Transportation Infrastructure by vly13664

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									Climate Change Effects
   on Transportation
     Infrastructure



         Ted Devens, PE
  NC Department of Transportation
Contributors: Brian Yamamoto PE, Dave Henderson PE
          Outline
    The Current Condition

Infrastructure Challenges Ahead

    Changing Ecosystems

     Management Models

    NCDOT Considerations
The Current Condition
    NCDOT monitors
Climate Change initiatives
       at all levels
World Stage – United Nations
1988 IPCC Created
       Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
1990   First IPCC Report
1992   Earth Summit at Rio de Janiero
1995   2nd IPCC Report
1997   Kyoto Protocol (183 nations signed)
       Reduce GHG emissions
2001 3rd IPCC Report
2006 An Inconvenient Truth – Nobel Prize
2007 4th IPCC Report
                National Stage
1987   National Research Council – Responses to Changes in Sea Level:
       Engineering Considerations
2001   TRB – Global Climate Change and Transportation
2002   USDOT – Impacts of Climate Change on Transp.
2005   USDOT – 1st Workshop on Impacts of Climate Change
2006   USDOT – 2nd Workshop on Impacts of Climate Change
2007   ICF International – Potential Impacts of SLR on Trans.
2008   AASHTO – Primer on Transportation and Climate Change
2008   TRB – Potential Impacts of Climate Change on US Transp.
2008   USDOT – Impacts of Climate Change… Gulf Coast Study
2008   FHWA – Information on Climate Change and Transp.
2009   EPA, USGS, NOAA, USDOT – Coastal Sensitivity to Sea Level
       Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region
2009   TRB – Planning for CC Impacts @ US Ports
2009   TRB – Factors Affecting Airport… and the Impact of CC
2009   USACE – Incorporating Sea-Level Change Considerations in
       Civil Works Programs
       North Carolina Stage
2005
Legislative Commission on Global Climate Change

2007
Monitor NOAA and Sea Grant research (local)

2009
DEM - SLR Risk Management Study

2009
DCM - SLR Planning (Rulemaking) Initiative
Sea Level Rise
    (SLR)
Oregon Inlet, NC




        Empirical Rate = 11 inches / Century
Beaufort, NC




      Empirical Rate = 10 inches / Century
Wilmington, NC




       Empirical Rate = 8.2 inches / Century
NRC SLR Prediction (1987)



                6 ft




                3.3 ft




                1.6 ft
IPCC SLR Prediction (2001)
                      2.9 ft

                    2.3 ft




        1.5 ft



                         0.7 ft
IPCC SLR Prediction (2007+)
   Climate Change Summary


Climatologically, the world is NOT STATIC.


     Empirical Data Suggests that:
          Sea Level IS rising.
    Rainfall intensity IS increasing.
   Climate Change Summary

     The BIG question for Engineers:

  When and at what amplitude will the
        geological peak occur?


Long-standing engineering assumptions may
              need to change.
      Challenges to
Transportation Infrastructure
Roadway Elevation and Width
Drainage
Geotechnical Stability
Safety & Functionality
     - Shoulders, Guardrails, Median
Erosion Resistance
      - Future Armoring?
Bathymetry
Bathymetric Approach…OK


        High Energy



                      Existing
Bathymetric Approach… Not OK

                   High Energy




                                 SLR
                      Existing
NC 12 on the Outer Banks
NC Hurricane Landfalls Since 1950
Hurricane Frequency & Intensity
Hurricane Frequency & Intensity
                            NC Hurricane Intensities Since 1950- Maximum Lifespan Classification

                        6



                        5
 Number of Hurricanes




                        4



                        3



                        2



                        1



                        0
                                1              2              3              4              5
                                                          Categories
Warmer Waters?
Hurricane Frequency & Intensity
  Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
                    Barometric                           Storm           Damage
 Category                            Wind Speed
                     Pressure                            Surge           Potential
      1           28.94" or more       75 – 95 mph      4 – 5 ft     Minimal damage
   (weak)        980.2 mb or more        65 – 82 kt   1.2 - 1.5 m      to vegetation
      2           28.50" - 28.93"     96 – 110 mph      6 – 8 ft    Moderate damage
 (moderate)     965.12 - 979.68 mb       83 – 95 kt   1.8 - 2.4 m        to houses
      3            27.91"-28.49"     111 – 130 mph      9 – 12 ft   Extensive damage
  (strong)      945.14 - 964.78 mb      96 – 113 kt   2.7 - 3.7 m   to small buildings
      4            27.17"-27.90"     131 – 155 mph     13 – 18 ft         Extreme
(very strong)   920.08 - 944.80 mb     114 – 135 kt   3.9 - 5.5 m   structural damage
                                                                       Catastrophic
     5               < 27.17"         > 155 mph        > 18 ft
                                                                     building failures
(devastating)      < 920.08 mb         > 135 kt        > 5.5 m
                                                                          possible
Signs
Increasing Wind = Larger Waves
 Wind & Fetch Distance => Wave Height
Storm Surge: Katrina
Navigable Clearance
Navigable Clearance
Navigable Clearance
              Structures
Storm Surge & Wave Energy

Scour

Wind Loads

Deck Height
         Navigable Clearance
         Storm Surge susceptibility

Temperature effect on expansion joints
            Hydraulics

Drainage Double-Whammy to Highways

    Rising Sea Level?

    Additional Rainfall Intensity?
Rainfall Intensity
Rainfall Intensity



     ?
                 ?
Existing Drainage Condition
Potential Drainage Concern:
    after Sea Level Rise
 Potential Drainage Concern:
after SLR & ∆ Rainfall Intensity




  Also – Fill and Slope Stability Concerns
Open Channels
Open Channel Flow
 in Coastal Plains




            Normal Water Elevation
Open Channel Flow
 in Coastal Plains

          Available Conveyance Area




             Normal Water Elevation
Open Channel Flow
 in Coastal Plains




RAISED Normal Water Elevation
due to Sea Level Rise
Open Channel Flow
 in Coastal Plains

                     REDUCED Conveyance Area




Normal Water Elevation
due to Sea Level Rise
Open Channel Flow
 in Coastal Plains

                     ADDITIONAL Conveyance Area




Normal Water Elevation
due to Sea Level Rise
Floodplains & Floodways
New FEMA Floodplains to consider?
             Geotechnical
Soil Saturation       Capillary Rise
Load Transfer         Fill-slope Stability
    Transportation Issues

Underground Utilities
     Subject to Inundation


Pavement Design & Maintenance
     High groundwater tables
     Increased flooding
     Temperature Extremes
Changing Ecosystems
  Shoreline Transition
2100   2075   2050   2025   2000
Wetland Transition
   2100             2000


                       TIDAL
                       MARSH




          COASTAL
           MARSH



                    TIDAL
                    MARSH
       Ecological Planning
Changing Wetland Locations
    Today’s tidal marsh drowned in 30 years
    Salt marsh today = Tidal Marsh
    Swamp forest or farm fields = Salt Marsh

Wetland Mitigation
    Creation, Restoration, Preservation
    Restore wetlands that will be inundated?
    What does “In Perpetuity” mean?
       Ecological Planning
Changing Habitats

Endangered Species Protection & Mitigation
    Will habitat exist in the future?

What is Best for Environmental Stewardship?
    Plan for Existing Conditions…. or Future?
Red Wolf Mitigation Plan?
      Ecological Issues

Significant engagement is necessary to
    address environmental laws that
      assume STATIC conditions.

                EPA
          NOAA Fisheries
        USFWS Regulatory
        USACE Regulatory
     Appropriate State Agencies
Coastal Communities
     Examples of Existing
Regulatory Models that consider
        Climate Change
Policy & Rulemaking by Others
United Kingdom

US Army Corps of Engineers (July 2009)

Council on Environmental Quality
  - may require NEPA to consider Climate Change

“Climate Change Adaptation Plans”
  - by other states or localities
 US Army Corps of Engineers
July 2009 - USACE Circular 1165-2-211
  Requires consideration of Sea Level Rise when
  planning/designing Civil Works programs.
  “Planning studies and engineering designs
  should consider alternatives that are developed
  and assessed for the entire range of possible
  future rates of sea-level change.”

  Low rate                 Empirical data trend
  Intermediate rate        Modified NRC Curve I
  High rate                Modified NRC Curve III
4.5 ft




1.6 ft
 US Army Corps of Engineers
For each sea-level scenario, determine:

  Sensitivity of plans & designs
  Degree of Risk
  Human health and safety
  Economic costs and benefits
  Environmental Impacts
  Strategies to minimize adverse consequences

Make a decision
What if the Corps of Engineers was
       planning a highway?

  Hypothetical Application of the
          Corps’ Model
Planned Two-Lane Highway



 Right-of-Way at present Sea Level




             Drawing is not to scale
Planned Two-Lane Highway



      Right-of-Way at moderate SLR
 Right-of-Way at present Sea Level




             Drawing is not to scale
Planned Two-Lane Highway

          Right-of-Way at significant SLR
      Right-of-Way at moderate SLR
 Right-of-Way at present Sea Level




              Drawing is not to scale
NCDOT Considerations
  Where is the State of NC?
Education & Continued Research
    Public
    Decision-Makers
                                               NC is
Platform for Decision-Making               transitioning
    Public Policy
    Land Use Planning
    Engineering Design Criteria
    Ecosystem Management

Spinoff Research - Adaptation
    Risk Management & Cost Effectiveness
    Planning Considerations
Potentially more issues to consider

Potential changes in land use
  City & County plans
  CAMA land use plans

Ecologic foresight

Future changes in Design Criteria may generate a
  wider roadway footprint & right-of-way
    Current NCDOT Thoughts

SLR prediction models still vary substantially
Money is tight and must be spent wisely
Closely Monitor Research – at all levels
Closely monitor NC initiatives & provide input
  DEM SLR Risk Management Study
  DCM Rules Development
  Legislative committees
     Current NCDOT Thoughts

Implement new NEPA planning considerations as
  CEQ requirements change
Consider programmatic pre-authorizations
 Ex: Roadway armoring, Tidal flapgates
For now…
  Address Climate Change issues on a project-by-
  project basis.
Later On…
  Consider risk management models as appropriate.
  Perhaps similar to USACE model… perhaps not.
             Similar Issues…

NCDOT
    Railroads
    Aviation
    Ferry Division
    Public Transportation

NC Port Authority
 NCDOT is willing to partner
as we “think ahead” about our
       changing world
Questions We’re Asking Ourselves
 What is the actual risk presented by each Climate
  Change aspect?

 What is the Cost vs. Benefit to address?

 Are systemic risk management models appropriate?

 How can we productively partner with other entities
  to “think ahead?”

 Will other entities share cost and/or risk?
       Risk Assessments
USDOT (w/ Federal Highway Administration)

EPA / NOAA / USGS

Transportation Review Board (TRB)

AASHTO

NC DEM - SLR Risk Management Study
Specific Climate Change Concerns
    Wind & Water
        Sea Level Rise
        Increasing Rainfall Intensity
        Hurricanes & Storms
              Storm Surge
              Wave Energy
              Wind
        Bathymetry
    Temperature Extremes
    Fog
Rising “Normal Water Level”
 Tidal ebb and flood

 Higher tailwater elevations

 Raise pipe outlets?

 Design for outlet control? (larger pipe size)

 Retrofits to existing highway ditches?
      Flap gates
      Wider ditches / canals
   Increasing Wind Loads?

Increased lateral loads

Increased lift in negative pressure zones

Wind Erosion and Accretion

Vehicular safety on bridges
   Hypothetical Example of
  Environmental Stewardship
Scientists are very concerned about wetlands’
 ability to migrate with SLR
     Will substrate development keep up with SLR?
     Vertical barriers threaten migration
     Existing roadways are potential barriers

Possible consideration w/ new roads & retrofits
     Build “Permeable Roads” w/ Equalizer Pipes
     Allows transfer of water, nutrients, seeds…
     Allows passage of aquatic species & reptiles
                                        Sea Level Rise Projections: Region X
                      7.00
                                                                                                             6.81

                      6.50

                      6.00                                                                         5.93

                      5.50
                                                                                                             5.20
                      5.00                                                               5.06
Projected Sea Level




                      4.50                                                                         4.50
                                                                               4.23
                      4.00
                                                                                         3.83
                                                                                                             3.59
                      3.50                                           3.41
                                                                               3.18
                                                                                                   3.08
                      3.00
                                                           2.63      2.55                2.59
                      2.50
                                                                                                                    Minimum Projection
                                                                               2.13
                      2.00                                                                                          Maximum Projection
                                                           1.95
                                                 1.86
                                                                                                                    Planning Concensus Level
                                                                     1.69
                      1.50
                                                 1.38
                                                           1.28
                                       1.13
                      1.00                       0.89
                                       0.83

                      0.50             0.53
                             0.41
                             0.30
                             0.19
                      0.00
                         2025       2050      2075      2100      2125      2150      2175      2200      2225
                                                                  Year

								
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