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Montana Montana

VIEWS: 45 PAGES: 17

									               Demographic and Economic Profile

                                 Montana
                                   Updated May 2006



Metro and Nonmetro Counties in Montana

Based on the most recent listing of core based statistical areas by the Office of
Management and Budget (December 2005), 4 counties in Montana are part of
metropolitan statistical areas, and 6 counties are part of micropolitan areas. The
micropolitan category defines counties that were previously included in the
nonmetropolitan category, and include an urban area with a population of 10,000 to
49,999 plus surrounding counties that are linked through commuting ties. These areas
often represent important economic and trade centers in rural areas. The remaining 46
counties in Montana are considered noncore counties. Using these classifications and the
population estimates for 2005, 34.9 percent of Montana residents live in metropolitan
areas, 30.0 percent live in micropolitan areas, and 35.2 percent live in noncore areas.


                          Metro and Nonmetro Counties
                                  in Montana




                   Metropolitan Counties
                 Nonmetro Counties:                   Source: U.S. Census Bureau and
                       Micropolitan Counties          Office of Management and Budget
                       Noncore Counties               Map prepared by RUPRI




                                                                                        1
Population

Montana’s population in 2005 was 935,670, up                               Percent Change in Population
3.7 percent from the 2000 Census. During the                         Area:               1990-2000 2000-2005
1990s, the population in Montana grew by 12.9                        U.S.                    13.1%     5.3%
percent. Nationally, population increased 13.1                       Montana                 12.9%     3.7%
percent during the 1990s, and 5.3 percent from                         Metropolitan           13.4%     3.6%
April 2000 to July 2005. Within Montana,                               Nonmetropolitan        12.7%     3.8%
population growth in the micropolitan areas                              Micropolitan         19.7%     8.1%
exceeded growth in the metropolitan and                                  Noncore               7.7%     0.4%
noncore areas during both time periods.                              Source: U.S. Census Bureau



                 Percent Change in Population,                                     Twenty three counties in
                          1990-2000                                                Montana lost population
                                                                                   during the 1990s, all
                                                                                   nonmetro counties. The
                                                                                   largest population losses
                                                                                   were in eastern Montana.
                                                                                   Three counties experienced
                                                                                   population gains over 30
                                                                                   percent during the 1990s,
                                                                                   and all were nonmetro
     Population decline of 10% or more
                                                                                   counties in the
     Population decline less than 10%                                              southwestern part of the
                                                      Source: U.S. Census Bureau
     Population increase less than 10%
                                                      Census 1990 and 2000
                                                                                   state (Broadwater, Gallatin
     Population increase 10% or more                  Map prepared by RUPRI        and Ravalli Counties)
        30% or more increase


                                                                                   Between the 2000 Census
                 Percent Change in Population,                                     and July 2005, 33 counties
                          2000-2005                                                in Montana lost population
                                                                                   - 1 metropolitan and 32
                                                                                   nonmetropolitan counties.
                                                                                   The fastest growing county
                                                                                   during this period was
                                                                                   Gallatin County, which is
                                                                                   the Bozeman, MT
                                                                                   Micropolitan Area,
                                                                                   growing 15.3 percent
     Population decline of 10% or more
                                                                                   during this time period.
     Population decline less than 10%
     No Change or Population increase less than 10%   Source: U.S. Census Bureau
                                                      Population Estimates
     Population increase 10% or more                  Map prepared by RUPRI




                                                                                                             2
The Economic Research Service, USDA, classifies counties as population loss counties if
the population declined from 1980 to 1990 and from 1990 to 2000. In Montana, 21
counties are classified as population loss counties, all of them nonmetropolitan, and most
of them in the eastern part of the state.


                   ERS County Typology: Population Loss Counties




                                                                    “number of residents declined both between
                                                                    the 1980 and 1990 censuses and between the
                          Population Loss Counties                  1990 and 2000 censuses ” (ERS, USDA)
                          Other Counties
                                                                              Source: Economic Research Service, USDA
                                                                              Map prepared by RUPRI




Race / Ethnicity

The population of Montana is 91.1 percent white and 0.4 percent African American.
Nationally, the population is 80.4 percent white and 12.8 percent African American.
Native Americans make up 6.4 percent of Montana’s population, compared to 1.0 percent
of the total U.S. population. People of Hispanic origin make up 2.4 percent of Montana’s
population, compared to 14.1 percent of the total U.S. population.

                                         Racial Composition of the Population in
                                               Montana and the U.S., 2004
                   100.0%                                                                                    U.S.
                    90.0%                                                                                    Montana
                    80.0%

                    70.0%

                    60.0%

                    50.0%

                    40.0%

                    30.0%

                    20.0%

                    10.0%

                      0.0%
                                 White           African      Amer. Indian/     Asian      Hawaiian/      Two or More
                                                American      Alaska Native               Pac. Islander     Races
               Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates




                                                                                                                        3
                                                               Racial Composition of the Population in
                                                                 Montana by CBSA Category, 2004
Within Montana, the metro
population is 93.4 percent              100.0%                                                                                    Metropolitan
                                         90.0%                                                                                    Micropolitan
white and 3.3 percent Native                                                                                                      Noncore
                                         80.0%
American. The micropolitan
                                         70.0%
population is 95.3 percent
                                         60.0%
white and 2.6 percent Native
                                         50.0%
American. The noncore
                                         40.0%
population is 85.4 percent
                                         30.0%
white and 12.8 percent
                                         20.0%
Native American.                         10.0%

                                          0.0%
                                                       White      African American   Amer. Indian/     Asian       Hawaiian/       Two or More
                                                                                     Alaska Native                Pac. Islander      Races
                                      Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates




                                              Location of Indian Reservations in Montana
The map to the right shows
the location of Indian
Reservations within the state
of Montana. In three
Montana counties, Native
Americans make up the
majority of the population
(Big Horn, Glacier, and
Roosevelt Counties). Those
counties are shown in the
map below.                                          Indian Reservations                          Source: US Census Bureau
                                                                                                 Map created by RUPRI Community Information
                                                                                                 Resource Center Interactive Map Room:
                                                                                                 http://circ.rupri.org




                            Native American Majority Counties
                                   The majority of the population was
                                       Native American in 2004




                     Native American Majority Counties
                     Other Counties                                                      Source: U.S. Census Bureau
                                                                                         Population Estimates
                                                                                         Map prepared by RUPRI




                                                                                                                                                 4
Age
                                                            Age Distribution of the Population in Montana
The age distribution of the                                     Metro and Nonmetro Portions, 2000
metro and nonmetro                           18.0%
                                                                                                                                                   Metro
population in Montana is                     16.0%
                                                                                                                                                   Nonmetro
shown in the chart to the                    14.0%

right. The percent of the                    12.0%

population in the 20 to 34 age               10.0%

groups is higher in the metro                 8.0%

areas, while the percent of the               6.0%
population age 45 and over is                 4.0%
higher in the nonmetro areas.
                                              2.0%

                                              0.0%
                                                       <5      5-9     10-14   15-19   20-24   25-34     35-44     45-54   55-59   60-64   65-74   75-84   85+
                                                                                                       Age Group
                                             Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000




                         Older Population Counties
                                                                                                       In several Montana counties
                       20% or more of the total population
                          was age 65 or over in 2004                                                   the population age 65 and
                                                                                                       over accounts for 20
                                                                                                       percent or more of the total
                                                                                                       population. These counties
                                                                                                       are all nonmetro, and most
                                                                                                       of them are located in the
                                                                                                       eastern part of the state.



        Older Population Counties
        Other Counties                                       Source: U.S. Census Bureau
                                                             Population Estimates
                                                             Map prepared by RUPRI



                                                                                                       In addition, several counties
                    ERS County Typology:                                                               are destination counties for
               Retirement Destination Counties                                                         the retirement aged
                                                                                                       population. ERS classifies
                                                                                                       counties as retirement
                                                                                                       destination counties if the
                                                                                                       “number of residents 60
                                                                                                       and older grew by 15
                                                                                                       percent or more between
                                                                                                       1990 and 2000 due to
                                                                                                       inmigration.” In Montana,
                                        “number of residents 60 and older grew by                      9 counties, all nonmetro,
                                        15 percent or more between 1990 and                            are classified as retirement
      Retirement Destination Counties   2000 due to inmigration ” (ERS, USDA)
                                                                                                       destination counties.
      Other Counties                       Source: Economic Research Service, USDA
                                           Map prepared by RUPRI



                                                                                                                                                            5
Educational Attainment                              Percent of Population 25 Years and Over
                                                    with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher, 2000
The percent of the population
age 25 and over that has earned
a Bachelor’s degree or higher is
24.4 percent in both the U.S.
and in Montana. Over 20
percent of the population had a
Bachelor’s degree in 20
Montana counties (all 4 metro
counties, all 6 micropolitan
counties, and 10 noncore                                 Less than 15%
counties).                                              15% to 20%
                                                                                                                      Source: U.S. Census Bureau
                                                        Higher than 20%                                               Census 2000
                                                                                                                      Map prepared by RUPRI




The chart to the right compares                                  Educational Attainment in Montana
the educational attainment of                                    Metro and Nonmetro Portions, 2000
Montana’s metro and nonmetro               Graduate/Professional Degree                                                                Metro

populations. The percent of the                       Bachelor's Degree
                                                                                                                                       Nonmetro

population with high
educational attainment                                Associate Degree


(Bachelor’s degree or higher) is               Some college, no degree

greater in the metro areas,
                                                   High school graduate
while the percent of population
with low educational                         9th-12th grade, no diploma

attainment (high school degree
                                                    Less than 9th grade
or lower) is greater in the
                                                                      0.0%          5.0%   10.0%       15.0%      20.0%        25.0%    30.0%       35.0%
nonmetro areas.                                                                                    Percent of Population 25+
                                          Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000




  ERS County Typology: Low Education Counties                                                 ERS classifies counties as
                                                                                              low education counties if
                                                                                              “25 percent or more of
                                                                                              residents 25 to 64 year old
                                                                                              had neither a high school
                                                                                              diploma nor GED in
                                                                                              2000.” In Montana, two
                                                                                              counties are classified as
                                                                                              low education counties -
                                                                                              Wheatland and Golden
                               “25 percent or more of residents 25-64 years                   Valley Counties, both
                               old had neither a high school diploma nor                      nonmetro.
      Low Education Counties   GED in 2000” (ERS, USDA)
      Other Counties
                                       Source: Economic Research Service, USDA
                                       Map prepared by RUPRI




                                                                                                                                                6
Poverty

In 2003 the poverty rate was 12.5 percent in the U.S. and 14.2 percent in Montana
(Census Bureau estimates). The poverty rate in Montana counties ranged from 9.2
percent in Jefferson County to 26.2 percent in Roosevelt County. Five Montana counties
had poverty rates exceeding 20 percent in 2003, all of them nonmetro.


                      Percent of Population in Poverty, 2003




                     Less than 10%
                     10% to 14.9%
                     15% to 19.9%                          Source: U.S. Census Bureau
                                                           Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates
                     20% or higher                         Map prepared by RUPRI




ERS defines persistent poverty counties as those counties with poverty rates of 20 percent
or more in each decennial census from 1970 through 2000. Nationally, 386 counties are
persistent poverty counties, and three are located in Montana. All three Montana
persistent poverty counties are nonmetro (Glacier, Blaine, and Big Horn Counties).


                                   ERS County Typology:
                                 Persistent Poverty Counties




                                                 “20 percent or more of residents were poor as
                                                 measured by each of the last 4 censuses,
                   Persistent Poverty Counties   1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000” (ERS, USDA)
                   Other Counties
                                                         Source: Economic Research Service, USDA
                                                         Map prepared by RUPRI




                                                                                                     7
Health Care Services

The designation of areas or populations as medically underserved is based on an index of
four variables - the ratio of primary medical care physicians per 1,000 population, the
infant mortality rate, the percent of the population with incomes below the poverty level,
and the percent of the population age 65 and over (Health Resources and Services
Administration, HHS). Within Montana, much of the state is considered medically
underserved, shown in the map below.


                        Medically Underserved Areas in Montana




                                                       Data Source: Health Resources and Services
                    Medically Underserved Area
                                                       Administration, HHS
                    Medically Underserved Population   Map created by RUPRI Community Information
                                                       Resource Center Interactive Map Room:
                    Governor Defined Area              http://circ.rupri.org




Health Professional Shortage Areas (HPSAs) are those areas that “have shortages of
primary medical care, dental or mental health providers and may be urban or rural areas,
population groups, or medical or other public facilities” (Health Resources and Services
Administration, HHS). Within Montana, many areas of the state are designated as
primary care HPSAs for the total and/or low income populations, shown in the map
below.

                   Health Professional Shortage Areas (Primary Care)
                                      in Montana




                     Total Population                  Data Source: Health Resources and Services
                                                       Administration, HHS
                                                       Map created by RUPRI Community Information
                     Low Income Population             Resource Center Interactive Map Room:
                                                       http://circ.rupri.org




                                                                                                    8
Per Capita Income

Montana’s per capita income has lagged behind the nation, with the gap widening
somewhat since the mid 1980s. In 2003, per capita income in Montana was $25,406,
compared to $31,472 for the U.S.

                                                   Per Capita Income in Montana and
                                                     the U.S., 1969-2003 ($2003)
            35,000
                                    U.S.
            30,000                  Montana

            25,000


            20,000


            15,000


            10,000


             5,000


               -
                      69

                              71

                                      73

                                              75

                                                      77

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                                                                              83

                                                                                      85

                                                                                              87

                                                                                                      89

                                                                                                              91

                                                                                                                      93

                                                                                                                              95

                                                                                                                                      97

                                                                                                                                              99

                                                                                                                                                      01

                                                                                                                                                              03
                   19

                           19

                                   19

                                           19

                                                   19

                                                           19

                                                                   19

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                                                                                           19

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                                                                                                                   19

                                                                                                                           19

                                                                                                                                   19

                                                                                                                                           19

                                                                                                                                                   20

                                                                                                                                                           20
           Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System




Within Montana, 2003 per capita income ranged from $16,136 in Blaine County to
$29,421 in Yellowstone County. Sixteen counties, all nonmetro, had per capita income
less than $20,000 in 2003. Twelve counties (4 metro and 8 nonmetro) had per capita
income exceeding $25,000 in 2003.


                                                           Per Capita Income, 2003




                           Less than $20,000
                           $20,000 - $24,999                                                  Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis,
                                                                                              Regional Economic Information System
                           $25,000 or more
                                                                                              Map prepared by RUPRI




                                                                                                                                                                   9
Nonmetro per capita income in Montana has lagged behind metro through much of the
past several decades, with the exception of 1973. In 2003, metro per capita income was
$28,395, compared to $23,796 in nonmetro areas.

                                         Per Capita Income in Montana Metro and
                                         Nonmetro Portions, 1969-2003 ($2003)
             30,000
                                    Metro

             25,000                 Nonmetro


             20,000



             15,000



             10,000



              5,000



                -
                    69

                            71

                                    73

                                            75

                                                    77

                                                            79

                                                                    81

                                                                            83

                                                                                   85

                                                                                           87

                                                                                                   89

                                                                                                           91

                                                                                                                   93

                                                                                                                           95

                                                                                                                                   97

                                                                                                                                           99

                                                                                                                                                  01

                                                                                                                                                          03
                    19

                           19

                                   19

                                          19

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                                                                                                                         19

                                                                                                                                 19

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                                                                                                                                                 20

                                                                                                                                                         20
           Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System




The per capita income gap between metro and nonmetro areas is measured with nonmetro
per capita income as a percent of metro. In 1973 the nonmetro per capita income
exceeded metro per capita income, but the gap has widened since that time. In recent
years, the gap has continued to widen - from 90.5 percent in 1993 to 83.8 percent in
2003.

                          Per Capita Income Gap in Montana: Nonmetro PCI as
                                     a percent of Metro, 1969-2003
            110.0%



            100.0%



             90.0%



             80.0%



             70.0%



             60.0%



             50.0%
                  69

                            71

                                    73

                                            75

                                                    77

                                                            79

                                                                    81

                                                                            83

                                                                                    85

                                                                                            87

                                                                                                    89

                                                                                                            91

                                                                                                                    93

                                                                                                                            95

                                                                                                                                    97

                                                                                                                                            99

                                                                                                                                                    01

                                                                                                                                                            03
               19

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                                 19

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                                                                                                         19

                                                                                                                 19

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                                                                                                                                 19

                                                                                                                                         19

                                                                                                                                                 20

                                                                                                                                                         20




           Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System




                                                                                                                                                                 10
Employment Structure

In 2003, government and government enterprises accounted for the largest shares of total
employment both in Montana (15.7%) and the U.S. (14.2%). Retail trade was the second
largest employment sector, accounting for 12.2 percent of Montana employment and 11.0
percent of the U.S. employment.

                 Employment by Industry in Montana and the U.S., 2003
                                          Farm
                                                                                                             Montana
           Forestry, fishing, related activities
                                        Mining                                                               U.S.
                                        Utilities
                                  Construction
                                Manufacturing
                              Wholesale trade
                                  Retail Trade
              Transportation & warehousing
                                   Information
                         Finance & insurance
               Real estate & rental & leasing
            Professional & technical services
   Management of companies & enterprises
             Administrative & waste services
                         Educational services
              Health care & social assistance
           Arts, entertainment, & recreation
            Accommodation & food services
 Other services, except public administration
     Government & government enterprises

Source: BEA,REIS                               0.0%   2.0%   4.0%       6.0%   8.0%   10.0%   12.0%    14.0%    16.0%     18.0%




                                                                                Montana Counties by
The ERS economic typology                                                      ERS Economic Typology
classifies counties into one of
five industry categories of
specialization or as
nonspecialized. The map to the
right shows the classification of
Montana counties by this
typology. The map illustrates
the importance of farming in
much of the state, as well as                                Farming
                                                             Mining
government, mining and                                       Manufacturing
services in several areas.                                   Government
                                                             Services                          Source: Economic Research Service, USDA
                                                             Nonspecialized                    Map prepared by RUPRI




                                                                                                                               11
Unemployment

In 2004 the unemployment rate in Montana was 4.4 percent, compared to 5.5 percent for
the U.S. Within Montana, the unemployment rate ranged from 2.1 percent in Sweet
Grass County to 9.7 percent in Lincoln County.


                                  Unemployment Rate, 2004




                 Less than 3%

                 3.0% to 4.9%

                 5.0% to 6.9%                         Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics,
                                                      Local Area Unemployment Statistics
                 7.0% or higher                       Map prepared by RUPRI




ERS classifies counties as low employment counties if fewer than 65 percent of the
residents aged 21 to 64 were employed in 2000. In Montana, 4 counties (all nonmetro)
are classified as low employment counties - Glacier, Lincoln, Roosevelt, and Sanders
Counties.


                  ERS Typology: Low Employment Counties




                                           “less than 65 percent of residents 21-64 years
                 Low Employment Counties   old were employed in 2000” (ERS, USDA)
                 Other Counties
                                                   Source: Economic Research Service, USDA
                                                   Map prepared by RUPRI




                                                                                             12
Agriculture

Agriculture is an important industry in many parts of the state. Twenty-six counties are
classified by the Economic Research Service as “farming dependent” (see map on page
11). The map below shows the value of agricultural products sold in 2002 for Montana
counties. One county (Yellowstone) had sales of over $100 million in 2002.

                   Market Value of Agricultural Products Sold, 2002




                    Less than $10M
                    $10M to $49.9M
                    $50M to $99.9M            Source: Census of Agriculture, 2002 USDA,
                                              National Agricultural Statistics Service
                    $100M or more             Map prepared by RUPRI




Average farm size in Montana is 2,139 acres, and over 46 percent of farms in the state are
larger than 500 acres. The map below shows the percent of farms in each county that are
larger than 500 acres.


                              Percent of Farms in County that are
                                  500 Acres or Larger, 2002




                    Less than 25%
                    25% to 49.9%
                    50% to 74.9%              Source: Census of Agriculture, 2002 USDA,
                                              National Agricultural Statistics Service
                    75% or more               Map prepared by RUPRI




                                                                                          13
Entrepreneurship

Entrepreneurship is an important
component to economic                         CFED Development Report Card for the States
development today.                                             Entrepreneurial Energy
Unfortunately, data that allows
us to measure entrepreneurship
activity and trends is difficult to
ascertain, particularly at the
county level. The CFED
Development Report Card rates
each state on its entrepreneurial      Grade
energy, “evaluating the extent to        A
which new firms are generated            B
and whether they are                     C
                                         D
contributing to employment               F                                       Source: CFED
growth.” While this is a state-        Not shown: Alaska (C) and Hawaii (D)      Map prepared by RUPRI
level ranking, it provides useful
insight as to how a state is performing. Montana receives a grade of “C” on this
indicator, more favorable than nearby Great Plains states, but less favorable than
Washington and Idaho, each receiving grades of “A.”


As mentioned, county level indicators are difficult to ascertain, but one good indicator of
entrepreneurial activity is the proportion of workers that are self employed. The map
below show self employed workers as a portion of nonfarm private employment in the
county.

                                 Entrepreneurship in Montana:
                                   Self Employed as a Percent of
                                 Nonfarm Private Employment, 2003




                 Less than 10%

                  10% to 14.9%

                  15% to 19.9%                        Source: U.S. Census Bureau,
                                                      Nonemployer Statistics and
                  20% to 29.9%                        Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional
                                                      Economic Information System
                  30% or more
                                                      Map prepared by RUPRI




                                                                                                   14
Recreation Counties

The Economic Research Service developed a classification for nonmetropolitan
recreation counties, to capture the recreational opportunities and development in many
rural parts of the nation. The classification is based on a number of factors, including
employment and income derived from recreation-related activities, seasonal housing units
within the county, and receipts from hotels and motels. Nationally, 334 counties are
classified as nonmetro recreation counties (those counties nonmetro either in 1993 or
2003 are classified), and are concentrated in the Mountain West, Upper Great Lakes, and
New England. In Montana, 12 counties are classified as nonmetro recreation counties.
Carbon County was a nonmetro county in the 1993 classifications so is included.


                  ERS Typology: Nonmetro Recreation Counties




                                                          Counties that were nonmetro in 1993 are
                     Recreation Counties                  classified. Carbon County was nonmetro
                                                          in the 1993 classifications, but changed
                     Other Counties                       to metropolitan status since that time, so
                                                          is included in this typology.
                Source: Economic Research Service, USDA
                Map prepared by RUPRI




                                                                                                       15
Data Sources and References

Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System
      http://www.bea.gov/bea/regional/reis/

Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics
      http://www.bls.gov/lau/home.htm

CFED Development Report Card for the States
     http://drc.cfed.org/

Economic Research Service, USDA, 2004 County Typology
     http://www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/Rurality/Typology/

Health Resources and Services Administration, Department of Health and Human
Services, Designations of Health Professional Shortage Areas and Medically
Underserved Areas and Populations
       http://www.bhpr.hrsa.gov/shortage/

National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA
2002 Census of Agriculture
      http://www.nass.usda.gov/Census_of_Agriculture/index.asp

Office of Management and Budget, Statistical Area Definitions and Guidance on Their
Uses
       http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/bulletins/fy05/b05-02.html

RUPRI Community Information Resource Center Interactive Map Room
     http://circ.rupri.org/

U.S. Census Bureau

       Census 2000
       http://www.census.gov/main/www/cen2000.html

       Population Estimates
       http://www.census.gov/popest/estimates.php

       Metropolitan and Micropolitan Area Classifications
       http://www.census.gov/population/www/estimates/metrodef.html

       Nonemployer Statistics
       http://www.census.gov/epcd/nonemployer/

       Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates
       http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/saipe/saipe.html



                                                                                 16
For Comments and Questions on this Report:


           Kathleen K. Miller
         RUPRI Program Director
            (573) 882-5098
            miller@rupri.org




             Contact RUPRI

       Rural Policy Research Institute
      Truman School of Public Affairs
      University of Missouri-Columbia
            214 Middlebush Hall
          Columbia, MO 65211
           (573) 882-0316 Voice
           [573] 884=5310 FAX

            http://www.rupri.org




                                             17

								
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