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Retail E-Commerce Forecast: Cautious Optimism
Published on June 2009

                                                                                                            Report Summary


US retail e-commerce sales (excluding travel) will total $132 billion in 2009, down 0.4% from 2008. Assuming the recession ends this
year, as many economists predict, eMarketer forecasts online sales will begin to rebound in 2010 and hit full stride in 2011.


The Retail E-Commerce Forecast report tracks the trends that will influence online sales in the near and far future.


Web research has become a priority for value shoppers in today’s recession. Currently 86% of Internet users are online
shoppers—they browse, research and compare products on the Internet, but do not necessarily buy online. As a result, though
often ignored, store sales influenced by online research are three times higher than e-commerce sales.


Even so, many consumers opt to buy online for convenience, price and broad product selection. Over 80% of online shoppers are
also online buyers.


Even after a decade, some online consumers still refrain from buying online due to security and privacy concerns or the inability to
touch and feel products. But Web retailers are adding new content and features to overcome these hurdles.


Key questions the “Retail E-Commerce Forecast” report answers: What is the forecast for retail e-commerce and
online travel sales' How does the recession impact online sales and shopping habits' What percent of online consumers research and
buy products on the Internet' What is the influence of online research on store sales' And many others… eMarketer
Reports—On Target and Up to Date


The Retail E-Commerce Forecast report aggregates the latest data from marketing and communications researchers with eMarketer
analysis to provide the information you need to make quick, well-informed business decisions.




                                                                                                            Table of Content

Executive SummaryUS B2C E-Commerce Sales, by Segment, 2008-2013 (billions and % change)Key QuestionsThe eMarketer
ViewKey eMarketer Numbers—US Retail E-Commerce ForecastB2C E-Commerce SalesUS B2C E-Commerce Sales, by
Segment, 2008-2013 (billions and % change)US Retail E-Commerce Forecast ModelUS Retail E-Commerce Forecast Model,
2008-2013US Online Shopper and Buyer Definitions, 2009Retail E-Commerce SalesUS Retail E-Commerce Sales, 2008-2013
(billions and % change)Comparative Estimates: US Retail E-Commerce Sales, 2008-2013 (billions)US Retail E-Commerce Sales,
2002-2007 & 2008-2013 (CAGR)US Total Retail Sales Growth vs. Retail E-Commerce Sales Growth, 2002-2008 (% change)US
Retail E-Commerce Sales As a Percent of Total Retail Sales, 2002-2008Online Shoppers US Online Shoppers and Penetration,
2008-2013 (millions and % of Internet users)US Online Buyer's Online Shopping Behavior due to the Current Economy,
February-March 2009 (% of respondents)Importance of the Internet for Making Buying Decisions* According to US Internet Users,
April 2009 (% of respondents)Likelihood of US Internet Users Researching Online Before Making an Offline Purchase, April 2009 (%



Retail E-Commerce Forecast: Cautious Optimism                                                                                   Page 1/4
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of respondents)US Retail Sales, by Channel, 2007-2012 (millions)Reasons that US Online Buyers Check Online Retail Sites Before
Shopping in Stores, December 2008 (% of respondents)Sources Used to Evaluate Products for Purchase According to US Internet
Users, October 2008 (% of respondents)Online BuyersUS Online Buyers and Penetration, 2008-2013 (millions and % of Internet
users)Comparative Estimates: US Online Buyers, 2007-2010 (% of Internet users)Reasons that US Online Buyers Purchased from a
Retailer's Website Instead of in a Store, December 2008 (% of respondents)Reasons that US Internet Users Prefer to Purchase
Online vs. in a Store, by Gender, October 2008 (% of respondents)Leading Reasons that US Internet Users Do Not Plan to Do More
Shopping Online this Holiday Season, 2008 (% of respondents)US Online Buyers As a Percent of Online Shoppers,
2008-2013Average Annual Retail E-Commerce Sales per US Online Buyer*, 2008-2013Online TravelUS Online Leisure/Unmanaged
Business Travel Sales, 2008-2013 (billions and % change)US Online Leisure/Unmanaged Business Travel Sales As a Percent of
Total Travel Sales, 2006-2010US Online Leisure/Unmanaged Business Travel Sales As a Percent of B2C E-Commerce Sales*,
2008-2013 (billions and % change)ConclusionEndnotes104450Comparative Estimates: US Retail E-Commerce Sales, 2008-2013
(billions)104458Comparative Estimates: US Online Buyers, 2007-2010 (% of Internet users)104463Key eMarketer
Numbers—US Retail E-Commerce Forecast104465US Retail E-Commerce Forecast Model, 2008-2013104468 | 104469 |
104473 | 104475US Retail E-Commerce Sales, 2008-2013 (billions and % change)US Retail E-Commerce Sales, 2002-2007 &
2008-2013 (CAGR)Average Annual Retail E-Commerce Sales per US Online Buyer*, 2008-2013US B2C E-Commerce Sales, by
Segment, 2008-2013 (billions and % change)104472US Online Buyers As a Percent of Online Shoppers, 2008-2013104476US
Online Leisure/Unmanaged Business Travel Sales As a Percent of B2C E-Commerce Sales*, 2008-2013 (billions and %
change)Related Information and LinksRelated LinksContactReport Contributors




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Retail E-Commerce Forecast: Cautious Optimism                                                                          Page 4/4

				
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