Apresentação - As Perspectivas de Combustivies Liquidos by fionan

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									As Perspectivas de Combustíveis
 Líquidos Alternativos no Mundo
   Seminário “Perspectivas Energéticas para América Latina”
              18 de Outubro de 2004 (UNICAMP)
                  Dr. Francisco Rosillo-Calle
                   Imperial College London
                    (University of London)
                    RESUMO
•   O papel da indústria do automóvel
•   Mudanças/implicações
•   Os grandes desafios
•   Cenários- ER
•   Cenários – transporte
•   Combustíveis principais no mundo
•   Gasolina, diesel, sintéticos, gás natural, etanol,
    biodiesel, metanol, biogás, bio-óleo, hidrogênio,
    DME, ETBE, células combustíveis
    The Role of the Automobile
 Industry/O papel das Montadoras
• Changes in alternative renewable transport fuels
  (RTFs) do not happen in a vacuum / As
  mudanças no sistema de combustíveis
  dependem de muitos fatores
• They are interrelated to the:
  – Automobile industry/ A indústria do automóvel
  – Developments in engine technology/Des.tec motores
  – Development in fuel technology /Des. tec. de
    combustíveis
  – Availability and cost of fuels/ Disponibilidade e custos
    de combustíveis
  – Social, economic, political….. changes
             O Papel/….
• WE drive on industrially manufactured
  fuels. the tech is constantly improving
  under constant socio-econimic and
  enviromental pressures” / Nós usamos
  combustíveis industriais. Esta tecnologia
  muda constantemente, devido a pressões
  sociais, ambientais e econômicas”
• Environ. advantages of RTFs is not always
  sufficient
                O Papel …
• The automobile industry is going through major
  changes/Grandes mudanças no setor
• Global dominance by a few/ Domínio mundial
• Intensive competition/ Forte competição
• Low margins on benefits or losses/ Margem de
  benefícios é muito pequena
• The industry has invested massively on oil-
  based fuels/ Investimento pesado na área dos
  combustíveis fósseis
 The top 10s/ As 10 primeiras em
              2003
• GM            8.59 M units (185.5$B)
• Toyota        6.78       (153.1$B)
• Ford          6.54       (154.2$B)
• VW            5.02        (98.4$B)
• DaimerC       4.36       (171.9$B)
• PSA/Peugeot 3.29          (61.2$B)
• Hyundai      3.05         (38.9$B)
• Nissan       2.97         (65.8$B)
• Honda/       2.39         (42.4$B)
Renault
                O Papel…
• The industry make 60 M cars & trucks/yr /Produz
  60 M de veículos/ano
• In 1995 there were 600 M vehicles/ 600 M de
  veículos em 1995
• In 2010 there may be one billion / Podem ser um
  bilhão em 2010
• This posses major environmental problems/
  Problema ambiental sério, com 0.5 M
  mortes/ano de acordo com a OMS
        Os 4 desafios principais
• The Fuel Challenge/ O desafio dos
  combustíveis
• Urgent need to find environmentally cleaner
  fuels (be fossil-based or RTFs)/ Necessidade de
  usar combustíveis mais limpos
• At the moment there is not a clear winner/
• Which RTFs? Mais usual combustível?
• Which criteria to select them? Que critério?
• Most promising –ethanol, biodiesel, synthetic
  fuels (fossil and biomass)/ Mais promissor
• Hydrogen, fuel cells… longer term alternatives
                 O DESAFIOS...
• The engineering challenge/ Desafio da engenharia
• The IC engine has dominated the transportation
  systems/ Domínio do motor CI
• Urgent need to developed a more environmentally
  friendly engine/ propulsions systems/ Necessidade de
  desenvolver novos sistemas para proteger melhor o
  meio ambiente
• IC will dominate next two decades/ O motor CI vai
  continuar a dominação nas próximas duas décadas
   – Promising innovation is the flex-fuel
• New propulsion systems (hydrogen) still require
  considerable RD&D/ Novos sistemas de propulsão vão
  demorar ainda muitos anos
            OS DESAFIOS…
• Environ. & Health Challenge/ Os desafios
  ambientais e de saúde
• Transport is responsible c30% CO2
• Stringent environmental legislation/Maior
  controle ambiental
• Partial solutions/ Algumas soluções parciais:
• Menos carros
  – Improve the ICE/ Melhorar a eficiência
  – Use cleaner fuels (ethanol, biodiesel, synthetic (fossil
    or biomass based)
  – Utilizar combustíveis menos poluentes
          OS DESAFIOS….
• Structural/Market challenge/ O desafio
  das estruturas
• Some new fuels (e.g. hydrogen) require
  expensive infrastructure
• Others (ethanol, biodiesel) don‟t and this is
  a major advantage
• Alguns dos combustíveis (o hidrogênio)
  necessitam de estruturas muito caras
               SCENARIOS
• Development of RE will affect new RTFs
• O desenvolvimento dos RTFs está supeditado
  ao desenv. das ER
• RE can make a major contribution
• EREC scenarios*
  – Robust support RE = 50% energy (2040)
  – Significant support = 25%
  – (EREC takes into account only tech dev in RE, and
    not in conventional energy- ela só considera os
    desenvolvimentos tecnológicos)
  *Conselho Europeo das Energias Renováveis
                        Scenarios
               2001 2010     2020   2030 2040
World energy
consumption    10,038 11,752 13,553 15,547 17,690
MTOE

Biomass         1080     1291    1653   2221   2843
Hydro L          223     255      281   296    308
Hydro S           9.5     16       34    62     91
Wind              4.7     35      167   395    584
PV                0.2      1      15    110    445
Solar T          4.1      11      41    127    274
Solar            0.1       0.4     2      9     29
           Scenario, Cont..
Geother    43      73      131     194     261


Tidal…     0.05     0.1      0.4     2       9


Total RE 1364     1683    2324     3416   4844


% RE      13.6    14.3    17.1     22.0   27.4
              Scenarios
• RE provides (exclud trad biomass &
  hydro) 100 GW of grid connected electric
• Cumulative investment/ Inversões (1995-
  2003)= $85 B
• Wind/Eloica Power 40.3 GW (2003); 0.5%
  world electricity; 2008 = 95GW
• Germany = 14.6 GW (2003)
• Spain = 6.4 GW
• USA = 6.34 GW
        Scenarios Transporte
• Global estimates not quantified/O potencial
  mundial não foi quantificado
• Studies focussed on tech rather than economics
  or social/Estudos sobre a questão tecnológica
• Competition for other uses (electric, heat) makes
  it difficult to determine the most effective use
• Outros usos da biomassa dificulta qual o melhor
  uso energético
• Lack of an international market/ Falta de um
  cartel internacional
       Scenarios Transporte..
• Advanced Conversion tech
• Key R&DD areas/ Áreas princípais de P&D
  – Conversion of cellulose to sugars
  – Biomass conversion via gasification & thermal
    chemical routes/ Gasificação, termo-química
    converção
  – (ethanol, methanol, DME, synthetic fuels,- can be
    obtained from resulting gases)
  – Pyrolysis to produce “bio-crude/bio-oleo”
                                 Possible Fuel Chains
                                    Possible UK-based renewable transport fuel chains
        Resources                   Conversion technology                                End-fuel               End-use

    Arable/Annual crops
    Rape (Canola) seed                                                                    Bio-Oil

           Wheat

           Maize                     Pressing/Esterification

         Sugar Beet                                                                      Bio-Diesel

          Potatoes
                                                                                                       Internal combustion
  Herbaceous perennials             Hydrolysis/Fermentation                                            engine vehicle
         Miscanthus
                                                                                          Ethanol
       Swithchgrass

     Reed canary grass                                                                                 Fuel cell vehicle
                                            Pyrolysis
     Woody perennials
Short rotation willow / poplar                                                           Methanol

       Pine / Spruce                                                                       DME

     Residues & wastes                    Gasification
     Forestry residues                                                                  Bio-Methane

           Straw
                                           Digestion                                     Hydrogen
Municipal solid/liquid waste

    Waste fats and oils                                                                                Battery vehicle
                                          Combustion
                                                                                         Electricity   Trains

 Non-Biomass Renewables
         Hydro
         Wind
         Solar
         Marine
      Scenarios Transporte…
• Biofuel production (biocombustíveis) 120 BL (80
  BL gasoline equiv) or 6% of world gasoline
  (2020)
• Other = 10% and 3% of diesel (ethanol from
  cane)
• 33-35% of gasoline (2050-2100)
  – Produced mostly in DLG/ Produtores países pobres
  – Consumed mostly in DVC/ Consumidores países
    indústriais
 COMBUSTÍVEIS PRINCIPAIS
• Gasoline & reformulated gasoline from
  crude oil
• Diesel oil & reformulated diesel from crude
  oil
• Synthetic fuels (from oil, coal, natural gas
  and biomass)
• Natural gas
       Combustíveis, cont..
• Methanol from natural gas, coal, or
  cellulose material
• Ethanol from sugars/starches and
  cellulose
• Biodiesel from oil-containing plants
• Hydrogen by electrolysis of water
• Dimethyl-ether (DME) from natural gas
Fuel cells (electric engines)
     Production of Biomass Derived
         End-Fuels (Transport)
1.   Biodiesel
2.   Ethanol
3.   Hydrogen
4.   Bio-oil
5.   Bio-gas
6.   Methanol
7.   DME
8.   Electricity
       Combustíveis, cont…
• ETBE based on bioethanol
• Biogas
• Bio-dimethyl ether based on biomass or
  biodegradable waste/resíduos, lixo
         Combustíveis, cont..
• The biofuels considered in the EU are:
• Biodiesel (from rapeseed/carola,
  sunflower/girassol, etc)
• Bioethanol (sugar beet/beterraba, cereals, etc)
• ETBE (based on bioethanol)
• Biogas
• Biomethanol (based on biomass or
  biodegradable waste)
• Biodimethylether (based on biomass or
  biodegradable waste)
       Combustiveis, cont…
• Gasoline/diesel- reformulated
• R&D on these fuels is gathering pace/
  Incremento rápido em P&D
• These fuels quality is improving and will
  develop, eventually, into even higher and
  cleaner fuels/ Melhora da qualidade dos
  combustíveis (gasolina e diesel)
• They would be able to compete with
  biofuels on an environmental basis
        Combustiveis, cont…
• Synthetic fuels/ Combustíveis sintéticos
• Synthetic fuels will become increasingly
  important (alcohols, diesel and gasoline) Maior
  importância no futuro
• South Africa has been producing them for many
  years (oil, coal and natural gas)
  – 40% of total supply
  – New plants are coming on stream in USA, Malaysia
  – This has implications for biofuels
        Combustíveis, cont…
• Ethanol (bio) 2003
• World 38+ Bl (13 countries/países)
• Brazil 14.2 BL
• USA 10.6 BL (circa)
• EU c. 2.2 BL (incl. bioethanol-based ETBE+
  Synthetic- incu ETBE a partir do álcool)
• Others, c.2 BL
• (Australia, Canada, Colombia, China, India,
  Mexico, Peru, South Africa, Thailand, etc)
• 35 countries interested
        Combustíveis, cont…
• Ethanol, cont.
• World/Mundo =60-70 BL in 2012; 120 BL in
  2020 (c.10% transport fuels)
• Brazil 22 BL in 2012
• USA 20 BL (2012)
• EU 8-10 BL (2010)
• Canada 1.33 BL 2010)
• China 10 BL (2010?)
• India 1.5 BL
• LA/AL 3-5 BL (Peru 1.2 BL; Colombia, 1 BL..)
        Combustíveis, cont…
• Methanol
• Used in the past/ Utilizado como combustível
• Produced mostly from natural gas
• Used as a building block for many applications
• Production 47.3 BL (2000)
• It is suitable for gas turbines and IC
• Best candidate for fuel cells/Muito promissor
  para uso em células combustíveis
• Potential fuel demand 3.3 BL (2010)(American
  Methanol Institute- www.methanol.org
                                      Bio-methanol
Feedstocks                          Conversion Technology

                                     Gasification and syngas
Crops (Lignocellulosic)              reformulation                                    End-Fuel
•Short Rotation Coppice
•Long Rotation Forestry                                                          •Raw bio-oil
•Residues:                            Pilot Demonstration:
                                                                                 •Stabilised bio-oil
     - Forestry                       • Oil stabilisation and use
     - Agricultural                                                              •Upgraded bio-oil
                                      Novel:
Other                                 • Catalytic upgrading of oil
•Waste oils & fats?                   • New reactors and
                                        continued development of
                                        existing reactors




•Hydrogen                                               Electricity Production
•Battery powered vehicles and electric trains                Via turbine
                                                        (steam and / or „gas‟)
                                                               Fuel Cell              End Use

                                                                Vehicle
                                                               IC Engine
       Combustíveis, cont…
• Biodiesel
• Rapid increase in recent years/Aumento
  rápido nos anos recentes
• EU = c2.5 BL (Germany= 1.3 BL)
• Can be obtained from many sources
• Many countries are considering biodiesel
• Brazil can be a world leader
  – Programa de biodiesel
       Combustíveis, cont…
• Bio-crude/bio-oleo
• Many potential applications/ Grande
  potencial
• Niche applications/Aplicações especiais
• Unlikely use in transportation in large
  scale/Uso em pequena escala
        Combustíveis, cont…
• Biogas
• Large experience in non-transport applications
• Used in niche markets (urban transport)
• Many experiments
• Can use same infrastructure than natural gas
• Pode utilizar a mesma estrutura que o gás N
• Small-scale applications/Usos em pequena
  escala
• Low calorific value/Baixo valor calorífico
         Combustíveis, cont…
•   Gás natural
•   Prime candidate for hydrogen/fuel cells
•   Clean fuel; increasing use
•   About 2 M vehicles worldwide (2004)
    (CNG and LNG)
    – 130,000 in the USA
    (Natural Gas Vehicles Coalition)
        Combustíveis, cont…
• Dimethyl ether (DME)
• Advantage: can be made from any
  carbonaceous feedstock (N gas, coal, biomass)
  using established technologies/DME pode-se
  conseguir do gás N, carvão mineral, biomassa..
  com tecnologias existentes
• Current global production= 150,000 t/y + 1.8 Mt
  under construction
• Major interests:
  – Russia- from N gas in Siberia
  – China- from coal (cooking/cozinha, transport)
  – Iran (0.8 Mt, export for LPG/GLP);
                           DME (Dimethyl Ether)
Feedstocks                    Conversion Technology
                              Advanced Gasification and
Crops (Lignocellulosic)       syngas reformulation
• Short Rotation Coppice
• Long Rotation Forestry                                       End-Fuel
• Residues:                    Novel:
     - Forestry                • Still in R&D stage       •DME as diesel
     - Agricultural                                        extender / modifier

Other
• Wastes (MSW)




                                      Vehicle
                               Internal Combustion              End Use
                                      Engine
        Combustíveis, cont…
• Ethyl tertiary butyl ether (ETBE)
• Made by reacting ethanol with natural gas and
  petroleum derivatives to produce a clean-
  burning fuel additive/Produzido a partir da
  reação de etanol com o GS, e outros derivados
  do petróleo para a produção de um aditivo limpo
• ETBE is approx. 42% ethanol
• ETBE is favoured in the EU
• MTBE is facing difficulties
       Combustíveis, cont…
• Hydrogen
• Considered as the ultimate fuel/ O mais
  promissor para células combustíveis
• Hydrogen from ethanol
• Many problems
• Infrastructure
• 20 years away in large scale
                                          Hydrogen
Feedstocks                          Conversion Technology
                                    Gasification and syngas
Crops (Lignocellulosic)             reformulation
• Short Rotation Coppice            Electrolysis
• Long Rotation Forestry
• Residues:                           Pilot Demonstration:                         End-Fuel
     - Forestry                       • Fuel Cell Vehicles
                                                                                •Hydrogen
     - Agricultural                   • CHP systems

Other                                 Novel:
• Renewable Electricity               • Infrastructure development
• Wastes (MSW)                        • ??




•Hydrogen                                              Electricity Production
•Battery powered vehicles and electric trains               Via turbine
                                                       (steam and / or „gas‟)
                                                              Fuel Cell             End Use

                                                              Vehicle
                                                             Fuel Cell
              Main References
• www.erec-renewables.org
• www.biodiesel.at
• www.methanol.org
• www.economist.com/surveys/
• Mainstreaming Renewable Energy in the 21stC,
  Worldwatch Inst. Paper 169 (May 2004
• Sawin J L (2004) Thematic Background Paper 3, Int.
  Conf. RE, Bonn, June 1-4
• Fulton L (2004) Biofuels for Transport- An International
  Perspective, IEA
• Zervos A, Lins C, Schafer O (2004) Tomorrow‟s World,
  REW 7:4: 238-245
              Finalmente…
• Não é fácil dar resposta a uma questão muito
  complexa como é o futuro dos combustíveis no
  setor do transporte.
• Muitos avanços técnicos são ainda necessários
  e muitas mudanças sociais, políticas e
  ambientais…
• No futuro os combustíveis podem ser muitos,
  mas o petróleo vai dominar ainda por várias
  décadas

• MUITO OBRIGADO PELA SUA ATENÇÃO!

								
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