TOURISM AUSTRALIA GLOBAL MARKET by pengxuebo

VIEWS: 30 PAGES: 25

									TOURISM AUSTRALIA GLOBAL MARKET MONITOR
                                                                                  August 2009




  This report updates the assessment of the impact on Australian tourism of the global economic
  slowdown. This is the fifth of these reports since November 2008 and summarises survey
  responses from a wide range of tourism industry suppliers and sellers of Australian tourism
  product and draws on a range of data available to Tourism Australia. Tourism Australia thanks
  all those businesses who contributed their time during July to provide survey responses that
  made this update possible.


  Executive Summary

  In the six months to June 2009 inbound tourist arrivals declined by 2 per cent compared to the
  same period last year. It is estimated for the month of July 2009, arrivals will decline by up to 13
  per cent on last year - as a result of World Youth Day (WYD) event arrivals which inflated the July
  2008 arrivals numbers.




  Beyond July, there is much uncertainty regarding the impact of the economy on tourism as some
  source markets continue to feel the effects of recessionary instability while others note
  increasing consumer confidence which could unlock pent up demand for travel to Australia.
                                                 2


The Australian dollar’s price competitiveness has declined since the last edition of the Global
Market Monitor (GMM). Despite current exchange rate levels representing a better value
proposition than in the peak of July 2008, there has been a decline in price competitiveness from
Australia’s major source destinations such as the United Kingdom, New Zealand and Korea.

In terms of domestic tourism, most recent data illustrates declining trends. The opportunity that
decreased Australian outbound travel represented for domestic tourism in the early part of 2009
did not eventuate with March quarter National Visitor Survey (NVS) results showing weak
results across the board.

The Australian aviation industry continues to adjust to the challenges despite fears of oil price
increases. There have been relatively few announcements of cuts to aviation capacity and in
some cases increases to capacity have been announced. Airfare discounting is expected to
continue to stimulate demand.

The concern over the swine flu pandemic seems to be reducing through continued
communication of the pandemic’s moderate symptoms and relatively low mortality rate. The
main impact has been seen in parts of Asia and Japan.

Tourism Australia continues to implement business strategies to support flexibility during these
uncertain times and continues to remain active with tactical marketing in key markets. Despite
modest declines in arrivals to Australia over recent months, Australia continues to out-perform
many competing destinations and as a result has gained market share.




www.tourism.australia.com/globalmarketmonitor
                                                                             3


Contents
1.         Tourism Australia’s response to the global economic recession .............................. 4
2.         The fall in the Australian dollar ........................................................................................ 6
2.1        Rising oil prices ..................................................................................................................... 8
2.2        Impacts of the economic crisis on aviation.................................................................... 8
2.3        Other risks to inbound tourism ........................................................................................ 9
3.         Sector Outlooks .................................................................................................................. 10
3.1        Latest results for inbound tourism and expectations for June and July 2009 ... 10
3.2        Summary comments on the outlook for arrivals in
           August to September 2009 .............................................................................................. 11
3.3        Business events market outlook .................................................................................... 11
3.4        Domestic tourism outlook ............................................................................................... 12
3.5        Industry perspectives ........................................................................................................ 14
4.         Individual Market Outlooks ............................................................................................. 16
4.2        United Kingdom ................................................................................................................. 16
4.3        New Zealand ....................................................................................................................... 17
4.4        Germany ............................................................................................................................... 18
4.5        France .................................................................................................................................... 18
4.6        Canada .................................................................................................................................. 19
4.7        Ireland ................................................................................................................................... 20
4.8        Japan ..................................................................................................................................... 20
4.9        China ..................................................................................................................................... 21
4.10 Hong Kong ........................................................................................................................... 22
4.11 Korea ..................................................................................................................................... 22
4.12 Singapore ............................................................................................................................. 23
4.13 Malaysia ............................................................................................................................... 24
4.14 India ....................................................................................................................................... 24
4.15 Taiwan .................................................................................................................................. 25
4.16 Other markets (outside the above 15) .......................................................................... 25




www.tourism.australia.com/globalmarketmonitor
                                                               4




1.       TOURISM AUSTRALIA’S RESPONSE TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC RECESSION


Whilst recognising the difficult market environment and the overall reduction in arrivals, it must
be noted that Australia is out-performing many competing destinations. We are seeing
continued airline competiveness, the slow return of economic stability, and importantly, pockets
of increasing consumer confidence in some markets.

            Table B1: International visitor arrivals by country, August 2009

                                                                      Period in 2009 vs same
            Arrivals to:                                              months in 2008                    % Change
            South Korea                                                         Jan-Jun                        15.3
            Taiwan                                                              Jan-Jun                        10.4
            Malaysia                                                            Jan-Jun                          3.5
            Indonesia                                                           Jan-May                          1.7
            South Africa                                                        Jan-Apr                          0.7
            Australia                                                           Jan-May                        -1.2
            New Zealand                                                         Jan-Jun                        -3.8
            Canada (excl USA)                                                   Jan-May                        -6.6
            India                                                               Jan-Jun                        -9.3
            Hawaii (air arrivals including mainland USA)                        Jan-Jun                        -9.9
            USA (Overseas only)                                                 Jan-May                       -10.3
            Ireland                                                             Jan-May                       -10.4
            Macau SAR (excl China (PRC), Hong Kong SAR)                         Jan-Jun                       -11.5
            Singapore                                                           Jan-May                       -12.1
            United Kingdom                                                      Jan-Mar                       -13.9
            Hong Kong SAR (excl China (PRC), Macau SAR)                         Jan-Jun                       -14.2
            Thailand                                                            Jan-Mar                       -15.8
            Vietnam                                                             Jan-Jun                       -19.1
            China (PRC) (Foreign only)                                          Jan-Jun                       -19.3
            Japan                                                               Jan-Jun                       -28.6
            World                                                               Jan-Apr                        -8.0
            Source: Pacific Asia Travel Association, World Tourism Organisation, National Statistics UK, Central
            Office Ireland


In light of the intense competition and unprecedented low air fares in all key source markets,
Tourism Australia has continued to implement consumer marketing activities with key trade and
airline partners particularly in markets where there are signs of return of consumer confidence
and where specific segments now present Australia with conversion opportunities. These
included; G’day UK multimedia activities with Qantas and all State Tourism Organisations
(STOs), One Week Walkabout campaign in the US with Qantas and Qantas Holidays, Australia
Prefers VISA campaign with Visa and six STOs in China, Value Proposition campaign in Japan with
Jetstar in major newspapers, and the Transformation campaign with partner tags in NZ. In all
cases, these are providing strong tactical messaging about reasons to visit Australia now.

There has also been a range of digital activities which have seen a very strong response and
engagement: FIT segment in Korea, China, Hong Kong and Taiwan; the Youth segment in the
UK, Ireland, US, Canada and Europe; Orbitz in the USA; and to Australia’s Facebook, MySpace and
Twitter.

Domestically, the No Leave No Life campaign continues to encourage Australians to use their
leave on a holiday in Australia through above the line multimedia and digital campaigns.




www.tourism.australia.com/globalmarketmonitor
                                                5


Going forward, Tourism Australia has developed its global plans to place an emphasis on volume
(whilst still recognising the importance of economic value and dispersal) and as such Annual
Operating Plan projects include a higher degree of tactical messaging and partnerships with
industry who can convert. We will also maintain a much greater degree of flexibility with our
budget allocations and each quarter will be fully reviewing the business environment and
adjusting accordingly. At this stage there are no changes to our market categorisation as a result
of the latest forecasts.




www.tourism.australia.com/globalmarketmonitor
                                                                                                                                                                                             6




2.                      THE FALL IN THE AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

In July 2008, the Australian dollar reached its peak level against many overseas currencies. This
was followed by a decline in the value of the Australian dollar between August 2008 and March
2009 against major overseas currencies which enabled Australia’s price competitiveness as a
destination to improve. However, recent data shows this price competitiveness has been short
lived as the Australian dollar has appreciated between March and July 2009.

In particular the charts below illustrate a return to as high or higher exchange rates and
therefore a decline in price competitiveness from Australia’s major source destinations such as
the UK, New Zealand and Korea. Other countries remain relative to peaks in July 2008. The
Tourism Forecasting Committee’s (TFC) most recent forecast (Forecast 1, 2009) also suggests
that the Australian dollar will continue to appreciate against most currencies in line with world
economic growth further impacting Australia’s price competitiveness moving forward.
Table 1 -Exchange rates of selected foreign currencies, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA),
http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/exchange_rates.html (date accessed 30 July 2009)

                                                         Exchange rate $AU to $US                                                                                                                                                                      Exchange rate $AU to Euro
                                                                               Source: RBA                                                                                                                                                                                         Source: RBA 
 1.00                                                                                                                                                                                        0.70 
                                                                                                                                                                                             0.60 
 0.80 
                                                                                                                                                                                             0.50 
 0.60 
                                                                                                                                                                                             0.40 

 0.40                                                                                                                                                                                        0.30 
                                                                                                                                                                                             0.20 
 0.20 
                                                                                                                                                                                             0.10 
     ‐                                                                                                                                                                                            ‐
                                                         Sep‐07




                                                                                                                           Sep‐08
                        Mar‐07



                                              Jul‐07




                                                                                          Mar‐08



                                                                                                                Jul‐08




                                                                                                                                                            Mar‐09



                                                                                                                                                                                  Jul‐09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Sep‐07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Sep‐08
             Jan‐07




                                                                    Nov‐07

                                                                               Jan‐08




                                                                                                                                      Nov‐08

                                                                                                                                                 Jan‐09
                                   May‐07




                                                                                                     May‐08




                                                                                                                                                                       May‐09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Mar‐07



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jul‐07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Mar‐08



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jul‐08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Mar‐09



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jul‐09
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jan‐07



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  May‐07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Nov‐07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jan‐08



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           May‐08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Nov‐08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jan‐09



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   May‐09
                                                       Exchange rate $AU to Pound                                                                                                                                                                      Exchange rate $AU to $NZ
                                                                                Source: RBA 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Source: RBA 
  0.60 
                                                                                                                                                                                                 1.40 
  0.50 
                                                                                                                                                                                                 1.20 
  0.40                                                                                                                                                                                           1.00 

  0.30                                                                                                                                                                                           0.80 
                                                                                                                                                                                                 0.60 
  0.20 
                                                                                                                                                                                                 0.40 
  0.10 
                                                                                                                                                                                                 0.20 
         ‐                                                                                                                                                                                            ‐
               Jan‐07



                                     May‐07



                                                           Sep‐07

                                                                      Nov‐07

                                                                                 Jan‐08



                                                                                                       May‐08



                                                                                                                             Sep‐08

                                                                                                                                        Nov‐08

                                                                                                                                                   Jan‐09



                                                                                                                                                                         May‐09
                                                Jul‐07




                                                                                                                  Jul‐08




                                                                                                                                                                                    Jul‐09
                          Mar‐07




                                                                                            Mar‐08




                                                                                                                                                              Mar‐09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Sep‐07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Sep‐08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Mar‐07



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jul‐07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Mar‐08



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jul‐08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Mar‐09



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jul‐09
                                                                                                                                                                                                             Jan‐07



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     May‐07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Nov‐07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jan‐08



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              May‐08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Nov‐08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jan‐09



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      May‐09




                                                 Exchange rate $AU to $Canadian
                                                                                  Source: RBA                                                                                                                                                             Exchange rate $AU to $SG
 1.00                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Source: RBA 
                                                                                                                                                                                             1.40 
 0.80                                                                                                                                                                                        1.20 
                                                                                                                                                                                             1.00 
 0.60 
                                                                                                                                                                                             0.80 
 0.40                                                                                                                                                                                        0.60 
                                                                                                                                                                                             0.40 
 0.20 
                                                                                                                                                                                             0.20 
     ‐                                                                                                                                                                                            ‐
                                                         Sep‐07




                                                                                                                           Sep‐08
                        Mar‐07



                                              Jul‐07




                                                                                          Mar‐08



                                                                                                                Jul‐08




                                                                                                                                                            Mar‐09



                                                                                                                                                                                  Jul‐09
             Jan‐07



                                   May‐07




                                                                    Nov‐07

                                                                               Jan‐08



                                                                                                     May‐08




                                                                                                                                      Nov‐08

                                                                                                                                                 Jan‐09



                                                                                                                                                                       May‐09




www.tourism.australia.com/globalmarketmonitor
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    7

                                                Exchange rate $AU to Japanese Yen                                                                                                                                                                                                                Exchange rate $AU to $HK
                                                                                                Source: RBA                                                                                                                                                                                                            Source: RBA 
 120.00                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             8.00 
 100.00 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    6.00 
  80.00 

  60.00                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             4.00 

  40.00 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2.00 
  20.00 

        ‐                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                ‐
                                                                        Sep‐07




                                                                                                                                                            Sep‐08
                              Mar‐07



                                                          Jul‐07




                                                                                                                  Mar‐08



                                                                                                                                              Jul‐08




                                                                                                                                                                                                      Mar‐09



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jul‐09
                Jan‐07




                                                                                      Nov‐07

                                                                                                    Jan‐08




                                                                                                                                                                          Nov‐08

                                                                                                                                                                                        Jan‐09
                                            May‐07




                                                                                                                                May‐08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                    May‐09
                                            Exchange rate $AU to Malaysian Ringgit                                                                                                                                                                                                          Exchange rate $AU to $Taiwan
                                                                                                  Source: RBA                                                                                                                                                                                                          Source: RBA 
 4.00                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               30.00 
 3.50 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    25.00 
 3.00 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    20.00 
 2.50 
 2.00                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               15.00 
 1.50 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    10.00 
 1.00 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        5.00 
 0.50 
    ‐                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        ‐




                                                 Exchange rate $AU to Korean Wan                                                                                                                                                                                                   Exchange rate $AU to Chinese Renminbi
                                                                                                  Source: RBA                                                                                                                                                                                                            Source: RBA 
 1,500.00 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        8.00 
 1,250.00 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        6.00 
 1,000.00 

   750.00                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               4.00 
   500.00 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2.00 
   250.00 

            ‐                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                ‐
                                                                                 Sep‐07




                                                                                                                                                                     Sep‐08
                                                                   Jul‐07




                                                                                                                                                       Jul‐08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jul‐09
                                       Mar‐07




                                                                                                                           Mar‐08




                                                                                                                                                                                                               Mar‐09
                         Jan‐07




                                                                                               Nov‐07
                                                                                                             Jan‐08




                                                                                                                                                                                   Nov‐08
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jan‐09
                                                     May‐07




                                                                                                                                         May‐08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                             May‐09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jan‐07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jan‐08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jan‐09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   May‐07



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Sep‐07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Nov‐07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           May‐08



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Sep‐08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Nov‐08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 May‐09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jul‐07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jul‐08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jul‐09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Mar‐07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Mar‐08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Mar‐09




www.tourism.australia.com/globalmarketmonitor
                                                  8




2.1      Rising oil prices

Heavy discounting of airfares is likely to continue for the remainder of 2009, although not to the
same degree as occurred in late 2008 and early 2009 (Tourism Forecasting Committee, Forecast
2009 Issue 1).
Recent signs of an economic recovery have seen oil prices rise causing concern among airlines
(Australian Aviation Express). While oil prices are still well below record highs experienced in mid
July 2008, Consensus Economics expects oil prices will continue to rise over the coming 12
months (assuming the global economy recovers). This will place further pressure on airlines and
may result in airlines reinstating/increasing fuel surcharges.



2.2      Impacts of the economic crisis on aviation

The economic crisis continues to be the key factor impacting airline profitability but in recent
months a number of airlines have reported declines in traffic associated with the Swine Flu.
International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimates international passenger revenue fell by
as much as 30 per cent in May 2009 (the first full month to feel the impact of the Swine Flu on
travel), compared to a 20 per cent fall in March Quarter 2009. In terms of demand, Asia Pacific
carriers reported a 14 per cent fall in passenger traffic during May 2009, a result better than
Mexican carriers(-40%) but worse than Latin American (-9%), North American (-11%) and Middle
Eastern (+15%) carriers. According to Giovanni Bisignani, IATA’s Director General and CEO, “We
may have hit bottom, but we are a long way from recovery. Capacity is not aligned with demand.
Passenger load factors dropped 3.3 percentage points over the last 12 months”.

Despite this, Australia continues to perform relatively well. Australia has seen relatively few
cancellations or cuts in international capacity and in a number of cases (E.g. Delta, V Australia,
Tiger, AirAsia X) services has recently been added. According to the Bureau of Infrastructure,
Transport and Regional Economics, international passenger traffic to Australia increased 1.3 per
cent in May 2009, and Australian domestic traffic fell only 1 per cent (compared to a 9 per cent
fall in global international traffic). While this is an improvement compared to previous months,
load factors on Australian services continue to fall, in line with global trends. In addition, as the
global economy recovers during 2010, other international destinations are expected rebound
quicker than Australia as airlines re-divert capacity back to more business orientated routes
(Tourism Forecasting Committee, Forecast 2009 Issue 1).

Feedback from Australia’s airports indicates that there is considerable variability in the outlook
for major city destinations due to shifts in both inbound and domestic airline seat capacity. For
the month of June domestic and international capacity for the surveyed airports declined.

The Gold Coast and Perth received the largest growth in international seats during June 2009
compared to the previous year while Cairns, Sydney, Darwin and Brisbane declined.

Perth and Brisbane accounted for the largest growth in domestic capacity while the Gold Coast,
Sydney and Cairns contracted the greatest in June 2009.




www.tourism.australia.com/globalmarketmonitor
                                                          9


Table 2 -Change in international and domestic seats six months to June 2009 for selected airports

  % change on same month 
                                 January    February     March       April       May         June
        previous year
Sydney         Domestic                0%        ‐7%           ‐5%      ‐5%        ‐11%         ‐6%
               International          ‐1%        ‐6%           ‐3%       2%         ‐1%         ‐2%
Melbourne      Domestic                na         na            na       na          na          na
               International           na         na            na       na          na          na
Brisbane       Domestic                4%         1%            5%       3%         ‐4%          0%
               International           2%        ‐3%            0%      ‐3%         ‐7%         ‐6%
Gold Coast     Domestic               ‐3%       ‐16%          ‐13%       0%        ‐11%         ‐9%
               International         154%       136%          150%     145%        189%        153%
Cairns         Domestic                4%        ‐2%           ‐4%       1%        ‐13%        ‐14%
               International         ‐45%       ‐54%          ‐48%     ‐46%        ‐46%        ‐40%
Adelaide       Domestic               ‐5%       ‐11%            3%      12%          0%          0%
               International          ‐2%        ‐2%           ‐1%       6%          7%          1%
Perth          Domestic               13%         8%           15%      13%          9%          8%
               International          17%         4%            9%      12%         10%          9%
Darwin         Domestic                8%        ‐1%            2%      17%         30%         31%
               International           2%        28%           18%      ‐4%        ‐21%        ‐24%

Source: Survey responses from Australian airports.



2.3      Other risks to inbound tourism

H1N1 influenza (‘swine flu’) continues to be a concern for inbound travellers resulting in
cancellations particularly in the school groups sector from North Asian markets. Feedback from
industry indicates that continued updates on the pandemic status have been required to reduce
panic among concerned travellers.

While the World Health Organisation (WHO) has declared the H1N1 outbreak as phase six (that
is pandemic status) they consider the overall severity of the influenza “moderate”. The
moderate assessment reflects that; most people recover from infection without the need for
hospitalisation or medical care, national levels of severe illness from H1N1 appear similar to
levels seen during local seasonal influenza periods and hospitals and health care systems in
most countries have been able to cope with the numbers of people seeking care.

Feedback indicates that the H1N1 flu pandemic is not expected to have as severe an impact on
the Australian tourism industry as the SARS pandemic experience during 2003.




www.tourism.australia.com/globalmarketmonitor
                                                10




3.       SECTOR OUTLOOKS


3.1      Latest results for inbound tourism and expectations for June and July 2009

In the six months year to date June 2009, inbound arrivals were down 2 per cent on last year. The
month of July 2009 is expected to be over 10 per cent down on last year as a result of the
inflated arrivals in July 2008 because of the World Youth Day event. This dip in arrivals in July
2009 is expected to bring the seven months to July arrivals figure down by 3 per cent on the
same period last year.

Japan has endured further large falls in arrivals in May 2009 and June 2009. It is expected to
continue to decline in July 2009 as significant cancellations within school group sector due to
H1N1 flu eventuate. The general election on 30 August in Japan will also have a negative impact
on outbound travel as it falls within the summer holiday season.

Korea also continued its double digit decline in May and June due to the country’s economic
problems and sustained low value of the won currency.

In other North Asian markets such as Hong Kong, arrivals increased by over 80 per cent in April
but dropped back in May and June and are expected to stabilise in July 2009. Taiwan is
experiencing a relatively strong growth period a result of aggressive China Airlines airfare
promotions.

Established South East Asian markets such as Malaysia improved substantially in May 2009 and
June 2009 while Singapore continued to fluctuate up 35 per cent in April, flat on May 2009 and
up 7 per cent in June 2009. While growth is estimated for Malaysia through July there is still
traveller concern relating to swine flu but good airfare deals are definitely stimulating travel to
Australia. Singapore is expected to continue to fluctuate due to swine flu concerns.
Singaporeans will continue to make last minute bookings to firstly take advantage of good deals
and alleviate cancellation fees.

Chinese arrivals were down in May 2009 and June 2009. July is also expected to be heavily
impacted by swine flu concerns as the Chinese market responds to Chinese government advice
to reduce or cancel their summer vacation plans.

India performed well in April and May 2009 but declined slightly in June 2009. July 2009 is
expected to perform well despite recent media coverage relating to violence against Indian
students while studying in Australia.

New Zealand arrivals declined in May and June 2009. New Zealand’s volatile recessionary
conditions are expected to impact arrivals through July where declines of up to 5 per cent are
estimated.

Arrivals from the USA grew in May and June 2009. July 2009 results are expected to be down
because of the WYD effect. Canadian arrivals were weaker than last year through May and June
and are expected to continue to decline through July, also impacted by the WYD effect.

UK arrivals improved through May and June 2009 compared to the same period last year and are
expected to remain flat through July. The economic situation in the UK is having a negative
impact on arrivals; however aggressive airfare sales are stimulating sales.

Arrivals from France remained strong in May and June 2009 but are expected to decline during
July 2009. Germany and Ireland arrivals were positive through May but weakened in June 2009
and are expected to decline through July. July is particularly affected by the WYD spike last year.


www.tourism.australia.com/globalmarketmonitor
                                                11




3.2      Summary comments on the outlook for arrivals in August to September 2009

Tourism Australia sought feedback on the level of bookings for travel in the August/September
period from selected key tourism industry operators. We recognise however that comparing
bookings received now with bookings held at the same date last year for travel in coming
months is influenced by the current economic environment, swine flu and much shorter booking
time frames. Comments in this section only provide a rough indication of the short term
outlook– and should be used with more than usual caution.

Feedback from outbound sellers of Australia is that long haul Western markets like the Canada,
the US and the UK are mildly optimistic with bookings for September showing slight growth.

Other European markets such as France, Germany and Ireland are showing a downturn in
bookings through August and September.

Some overseas based sellers commented that there may be pent up demand in China which
could turn the decline in arrivals experienced through the April to July period to a more flat out
look on last year by September.

Japan and Korea look set to continue to decline through August and September although there
are some small signs of recovery in FIT and group segments from Korea. Other North Asian
markets like Hong Kong are set to remain stable while Taiwan is expected to see some growth
during the August/September period.


3.3      Business events market outlook

There were 178,000 inbound visitors with a primary purpose for visiting Australia of attending a
Conference/Convention/Exhibition for the year ending March 2009 (down 1 percent on last
year), although this data is affected by the inclusion of some of the 110,000 estimated inbound
World Youth Day visitors (source: ABS Arrivals and Departures). In addition, there were 144,500
inbound arrivals visiting Australia as part of an incentive trip organised by their employer year
ending March 2009 (Source: Tourism Research Australia, International Visitor Survey).

There were also 670,000 domestic overnight visitors whose primary purpose for travel was to
attend a Conference/Convention/Exhibition (down 33 percent) in the year ending March 2009.
In addition, there were 706,000 domestic overnight visitors travelling on an incentive trip
organised by their employer in the twelve months ending March 2009 (source: Tourism Research
Australia, National Visitor Survey).

In terms of the business events market outlook, feedback from several of the major convention
bureaus in Australia’s capital cities indicated that:
    • There has been little change in the level of enquiries for conventions during June 2009
       compared to last year
    • June is generally a quiet period for enquires and enquiries should pick up throughout
       September to November 2009 for February to May 2010
    • Lead time for corporate meetings is becoming significantly shorter for example some
       corporate meetings are being booked as short as 1-2 weeks out
    • There could be pent up demand for Asian incentives business throughout 2010 as
       incentives are one area which have declined in recent times.
    • Cancellations have remained relatively stable with few examples of cancellations due to
       H1N1. It has however caused apprehension among predominantly Asian markets and the
       conventions industry has had to work closely with markets to constantly inform and
       update them of the situation.


www.tourism.australia.com/globalmarketmonitor
                                                 12

      •   Companies are increasingly becoming cautious about announcing their conferences and
          incentives and are requesting that convention centres do not make announcements or
          disclose event details to the media.
      •   There is also evidence of more competitive pricing amongst key business event products
          such as hotels and venues and a shift towards more flexible contracts to secure more
          business during these more challenging times.
      •   The association market continues to be more resilient than the incentive market –
          however, there is strong competition in this sector and Australia is losing out to other
          destinations who engage in the practice of “subvention” or “incentivising” of bids.
      •   The association sector’s resilience stems from the need for associations to hold annual
          meetings under their charter.
      •   Leading DMCs have focussed more on the domestic market which has performed more
          strongly as companies keep their meetings in Australia instead of taking them off shore.
      •   The overall profile of the market is very varied – some companies continue to report good
          leads and good business while others have been substantially affected by the GFC.
      •   The exhibition sector appears to be performing more strongly – commentary from its
          industry association suggests major consumer events have been well supported by
          exhibitors.


3.4       Domestic tourism outlook

Domestic tourism has weakened in the first quarter of 2009 on the back of a very weak 2008. As
a lower share of the domestic tourism business is booked well in advance, expectations for
future domestic tourism is more difficult than for inbound markets. Also, leading indicators for
domestic tourism are not available compared to inbound tourism.

There continues to be an increased willingness in the marketplace to extend lead time bookings
as late as possible in order guarantee a bargain. Travel both domestically and abroad is being
seriously considered by consumers.




The above graph from the Roy Morgan consumer confidence index reflects the improving levels
of consumer confidence over the past two months particularly compared to the lows of one year
ago (Source: Roy Morgan Research).

The Westpac Index of Consumer Sentiment 2009 echoes the Roy Morgan Consumer Sentiment
rating and indicates growth of 9.3 per cent in July from June. The Westpac Index of Consumer
Confidence, Chief Economist, Bill Evans commented “This is a stunning result which attributes
the improvement to consumer relief at Australia avoiding a technical recession and to the
Governments financial handouts. This is an increase of 23.2 per cent over the last two months –
the largest two month increase in the Index since the survey began in 1975. Apart from the
release of the March quarter national accounts, the standout force must be the huge financial
www.tourism.australia.com/globalmarketmonitor
                                                 13

handouts introduced by the Government to counter the global financial crisis. The first wave
was paid mainly to pensioners and carers while the second paid low/medium income earners
over the March/May period. It has now been almost fully disbursed and has resulted in an
instant boost to retail sales and supported this surge in confidence”.

Consumers’ assessments of their finances compared to a year ago recorded a slight deterioration
to a net balance of -8 per cent. This occurred as only 21 per cent of Australian households
responded that they were better off compared to a year ago while 29 per cent of households
stated they were worse off. Australians most confident about their financial prospects were
males aged in their 20’s while females in their 20’s and 30’s were most confident.

Over the next 12 months consumers expect spending to increase for general household
expenses such as housing, health and transport costs whereas consumers expect to decrease
spending in home renovations, holiday and travel, entertainment, sports and leisure.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March 2009 indicates the cost of a domestic holiday fell 5.2
per cent in the March quarter 2009 (compared with the December quarter 2008). This is
consistent with discounting in response to weak demand for domestic travel.

Retail trade for the March quarter 2009 was 1 per cent stronger than for the December 2008
quarter. This included solid growth of 3 per cent for trade in accommodation, cafes and
restaurants. This is consistent with increased “cocooning activity” but at the same time less
spending on tourism.

Data from the Roy Morgan Holiday Tracking Study, indicated that intention to take either short
(one or two nights) trips or long trips (three or more nights) in Australia in the next 12 months is
slightly stronger for both in May 2009 than it was in May 2008. As a result, total trips have
increased marginally for the May 2009. Intention to travel overseas in the next 12 months
(Overseas total trips) has remained flat over the past 3 months even though data in the month
of May 2009 is significantly higher than May 2008.

The most current data (Quarter 1 2009) were released in June 2009 from National Visitor Survey
(NVS). For the year ending March 2009, the results indicated declines across all major aspects of
the survey, overnight trips (-9%), visitor nights (-10%), daytrips (-5%), and total domestic
economic value (-3%). The average length of domestic trips are continuing to decrease (3.8
nights per trip) while the total domestic overnight trip propensity is marginally below four trips
per year. Domestic business travel was very weak throughout 2008 and has continued to
weaken further in the first quarter of 2009.

The NVS figures are slightly lower than expected due to Easter falling in March 2008 compared
to April 2009. This means the March 2009 quarterly results would be expected to be weaker than
the equivalent 2008 results. For the year ending March 2008 the results include two Easter
periods (April 2007 and March 2008) while the year ending 2009 results include no Easter
periods.

Domestic travel continues to suffer a steady decline in the overall length of stay within the
younger age groups (20-29 and 30-39 years) as represented in the graph below. A negative for
the industry still remains in how to stimulate domestic consideration within these age groups. In
the past, much expectation and the strongest increases in domestic travel have occurred within
the 55+ year age bracket. However increases in domestic travel for this group might retract
somewhat given the current economic downturn and losses suffered on the stock market and
within superannuation over the past year.




www.tourism.australia.com/globalmarketmonitor
                                                                                                    14

                                          NVS Overnight Trips by Age Groups
                   18,000
                   16,000
                   14,000
                   12,000
 Overnight Trips




                   10,000
                    8,000
                    6,000
                    4,000
                    2,000
                       0
                             Yr Mar      Yr Mar    Yr Mar     Yr Mar    Yr Mar    Yr Mar      Yr Mar    Yr Mar    Yr Mar 
                               01          02        03         04        05        06          07        08        09
                        15 ‐ 19 years               20 ‐ 29 years             30 ‐ 39 years               40 ‐ 49 years 
                        50 ‐ 59 years               60 ‐ 69 years             70+ years 



Source: National Visitor Survey, Tourism Research Australia

The average petrol price across the country has increased around 4c since quarter 1 2009
however compared to 12 months ago prices are considerably lower at around 30c.

BITRE domestic aviation statistics for the year ending March 2009 indicate that passengers
carried were up 4 per cent overall, with the top 10 routes up 2 per cent and other routes 6 per
cent. However, an increase in passengers taking multi-sector trips could be contributing to these
increases.

ABS data on outbound tourism in the month of June 2009 continued to increase (up 5%) albeit at
a slower rate than the month of April which recorded an 8 per cent increase. These figures have
fallen considerably in comparison to surges felt over the same period one year ago. The year
ending June 2009 has seen a moderate increase of 3 per cent. Outbound destinations have
continued to advertise strongly and be aggressive in the marketplace which is a constant threat
to domestic tourism.

The decline in outbound travel is consistent with a reduction in overall travel activity by
Australians and some switching away from outbound travel due to the competitiveness of the
Australian dollar. While the decline in domestic overnight is greater than for outbound the
turnaround in outbound travel has been significant.


3.5                         Industry perspectives

Feedback from such industry sectors as the accommodation, attractions and inbound tour
operators (ITOs) was sought in this edition to gauge their perspective on recent economic and
external factors on business.

Feedback from Australian accommodation providers indicates a very mixed outlook. The
backpacker sector commented that this market had shown relative resilience in these difficult
times, noting specifically that there is not as much growth in the backpacker market as
previously experienced - but there is growth. Among the higher end accommodation providers
there has been a significant decline in the incentives and groups markets. The GFC is certainly
impacting the “grey” market, with travellers “scared to spend their superannuation” while there
is a general observation that the FIT market is holding up well. Accommodation providers across
the board noted consumers are trending towards shorter lead times and searching for
exceptional deals.

Most ITOs observed an increasing trend of FIT markets but a steep decrease in the group tour
markets. Some commented that the decrease in group tour markets were due to the crash in the
incentive markets; however, there was not an obvious consensus on the performance of the
incentive markets, with some operators observing the market to be relatively resilient in the
midst of H1N1 influenza. Many cited H1N1 as the primary culprit for the poor performance of
China, Singapore, Hong Kong, Korea and Japan; although, the negative growth figures in the
www.tourism.australia.com/globalmarketmonitor
                                                15

months of June and July have to be viewed in light of the strong spike in group travels to
Australia last year due to the World Youth Day. One operator noted they have seen a significant
decline in the French family market during August, with many people cautious about booking
and increasingly looking for value for money. The short-term outlook for the remainder of the
year seems to depend on whether or not the tourists simply postponed their April-July travels to
travel later in the year (September to December). Respondents expressed uncertainty over this
but generally the respondents were cautiously optimistic that upcoming holiday periods in
September will boost tourism to Australia.

Attractions experienced a decrease in demand from most inbound markets, although some
segments such as Malaysian FIT, NZ, and WHM markets held-up well. Direct international
aviation capacity was identified as a significant constraint for attractions in destinations such as
Cairns. In general, the trend of short-lead time has been observed by the respondents across
international and domestic markets. Interestingly, this poses a major challenge for fixed capacity
businesses without the short-run flexibility to adjust to the short-notice spike in demand; one
respondent outlined that they have turned down a large number of customers because of this.




www.tourism.australia.com/globalmarketmonitor
                                                 16




4.       INDIVIDUAL MARKET OUTLOOKS

4.1      United States

Tourist arrivals from the USA grew by 9
per cent in May 2009 and June 2009
compared to the same months in the
previous year. Tourism Australia
estimates that USA arrivals for the
month of July 2009 will be down by over
12 per cent due to the inflated World
Youth Day (WYD) arrivals figures
recorded during July 2008.



Total short term leisure and business visa
applications were down in May and June 2009 compared to the same months the previous year.
The working holiday maker visa applications improved on last year for May and June; however
this is the smallest category of visa applications. Visa applications for leisure and business visas
are a reasonable leading indicator for total arrivals from the USA, leading arrivals by one to two
months.

Feedback from sellers of Australia in the USA indicated that the number of enquiries for June
were relatively stable compared with the same month last year. There were very few reported
cancellations for travel in July, August and September. Forward booking trends were quite
mixed, but a more consistently optimistic outlook is reported for August. Sellers commented
that the lead times between booking and travel had shortened in recent months, and travellers
are seeking shorter, cheaper and closer vacations. Widespread seller web marketing of the super
cheap airfares is having the desired stimulus effect on consumer inquiry and booking. However,
while inquiries and bookings tend to be holding, overall yield is down for sellers, who are now
making much less revenue through airline commissions (average airfare down 42 per cent on a
year ago).


4.2      United Kingdom

Tourist arrivals from the UK were up 3%
per cent on last year for the month of
May 2009 and were up 5 per cent in June
2009 compared to the same months in
the previous year. Tourism Australia
estimates that UK arrivals will be on par
with last year for the month of July 2009.




www.tourism.australia.com/globalmarketmonitor
                                                   17


Total short term leisure visa applications were down in May and June 2009 compared to the
same months the previous year. Applications for business and working holiday maker visas were
down in May, however improved in June compared to the same months last year. Visa
applications for leisure and business visas are a reasonable leading indicator for total arrivals
from the United Kingdom, leading arrivals by one to two months.

UK sellers reported significant increases (over 15%) in the level of enquiries in June. The bookings
results for July-September were mixed with some sellers reporting a slight decrease, while
others reported over 25 per cent increase in bookings compared to the same period last year.
Sellers observed that late booking trends were fuelled by low airfares, which stimulated the
demand for first-time visitors and VFR market to Australia. Unlike sellers in other countries,
some UK sellers observed increases in the lead time with enquiries and bookings for 2010
increasing.



4.3      New Zealand

Tourist arrivals from NZ declined by 7 per
cent in May 2009 and declined by 6 per
cent in June 2009 compared to the same
months in the previous year. Tourism
Australia estimates that NZ arrivals will
be down by 2 per cent in the month of
July 2009 compared to last year.




As NZ visitors don’t require a visa before
leaving NZ there is no data on visa
applications for this market.

NZ remains in volatile recessionary conditions with low consumer sentiment and high inflation.
Sales trends are variable from month to month but interest is kept high with aggressive tactical
airline activity for Australia. Trade maintain it is difficult to forecast forward booking trends for
the year ahead, with the continued trend to shortener lead time as consumers continue to wait
for hot deals. Little reported impact of H1N1. In terms of current economic conditions, retailers
convey that there is still a high level of interest in leisure travel to Australia, and airlines continue
to drive the market with highly competitive fares from both full service and low cost carriers in
an aim to drive market share across the Tasman. Whilst air only is buoyant, so is the full package
holiday which has been prompted by both aggressive land pricing and key events/attractions
gaining momentum for Australia including significant activity around Jersey Boys (the musical)
in Melbourne.




www.tourism.australia.com/globalmarketmonitor
                                                18



4.4      Germany

Tourist arrivals from Germany grew by 5
per cent in May 2009 but declined by 16
per cent in June 2009 compared to the
same months in the previous year.
Tourism Australia estimates that German
arrivals will be down by between 14 and
19 per cent in July 2009 compared to last
year. The July declines are a likely result
of the July 2008 figures being inflated by
German WYD arrivals.



Total short term leisure and business visa
applications were down in May and June 2009 compared to the same months the previous year.
Visa applications for leisure and business visas are a reasonable leading indicator for total
arrivals from Germany, leading by around one to two months. The Working Holiday Maker
sector which represents around 10 per cent of German arrivals and visa applications, have
increased in visa lodgements during May and June 2009.

The trend of declining enquiries continued for German sellers in July. Sellers on average reported
a drop in bookings between 1-20 per cent, although the figures varied substantially across
sellers; for instance, bookings for July, August and September varied between +15% and -25%.

German sellers observed tendencies for late and last minute bookings. One seller commented
that the lead time has changed from six to eight months to three to five months. Several sellers
also noted the decreasing competitiveness of Australia relative to North American, South
American and Asian destinations. Some German sellers noted that while FIT market has held up
well, group travel is down. Furthermore, sellers commented that the youth sector held up well,
but families and elderly couples have not been so resilient to the economic downturn.


4.5      France

Tourist arrivals from France grew by 35
and 11 per cent respectively in May 2009
and June 2009 compared to the same
months last year. Tourism Australia
estimates that French arrivals will
decline in July 2009 by up to 17 per cent
compared to last year as a result of
inflated July 2008 figures relating to
WYD.



Short term visa applications from France
grew during May 2009 (due to growth in the leisure sector) but declined through June compared
to the same month in the previous year. Visa applications from the Working Holiday Maker
sector have increased strongly during this period. The Working Holiday Maker sector represents
around 15 per cent of French arrivals.

Bookings and enquiries for June and July varied considerably among French sellers. While
respondents did not report any cancellations, bookings and enquiries varied between-20 per
cent and +20 per cent. In contrast to German sellers, some French sellers indicated a drop in the
www.tourism.australia.com/globalmarketmonitor
                                                19

FIT and “sur measure” (tailor made itinerary) trips, while others have seen increases in WHV
trips. Generally, last minute bookings have been the norm in the past few months. Although
sellers acknowledged that there has been some substitution towards cheaper destinations (as
well as greater price sensitivity), they were generally optimistic about the improved price
competitiveness of Australia, citing the positive impact of ATE in negotiating reduced prices.


4.6      Canada

Tourist arrivals from Canada declined by
11 per cent in May 2009 but was on par
in June 2009 compared to the previous
year. Tourism Australia estimates that
Canadian arrivals will be down by almost
20 per cent in July 2009 as a result of
WYD arrivals last year.




Applications for holiday and business visas by Canadians were down during May and June 2009
compared to the same months in the previous year. This was predominantly due to decreases in
leisure and business visa applications. Visa applications for leisure and business are a reasonable
leading indicator for total arrivals from Canada, leading by around one month. Working Holiday
Maker visa applications are a comparatively small sector of arrivals and while they improved on
last year between January and March 2009, have declined through May and June.

Sellers commented that the April to September period is an off-peak season for Canadian
travellers. Thus, the low levels of enquiries were expected. Sellers, however, did note a rise in
enquiries for FIT and budget touring, as well as increase in bookings during July compared with
2008. In particular, there has been an increase in demand for Australian tourism from the youth
sector, while the senior segment decreased. Sellers also reported a trend towards enquiries and
quotes being obtained well-in-advance but commitments to bookings and payments are done in
the last minute.




www.tourism.australia.com/globalmarketmonitor
                                                20




4.7      Ireland

Tourist arrivals from Ireland grew by 1
per cent in May 2009 but declined by 16
per cent in June 2009 compared to the
same months in the previous year.
Tourism Australia estimates that Irish
arrivals will be down 17 and 22 per cent
in July 2009 compared to the same
month in 2008. July will be down on last
year as a result of the inflated July 2008
figures due to the WYD event.



Total tourists visa applications from
Ireland declined during May and June 2009 compared to the same months in the previous year.
The Working Holiday Maker sector which represents around 25 per cent of Irish visa applications
and which had experienced strong growth in the first nine months of the financial year have
declined substantially through April, May and June 2009. Total visa applications for leisure and
business visas are a reasonable leading indicator for total arrivals from Ireland, leading by
around one month.

The GFC induced rise in the unemployment levels in Ireland has had a mixed effect on Irish
sellers. Some sellers noted some positive effects, citing an increase in the demand for long-haul,
long-duration trips to capitalise on the redundancy packages. This was particularly prevalent
among older travellers. Sellers commented that the youth and WHV markets held up well due to
the stronger job market perception in Australia than in Ireland. Other sellers, however, reported
a general decline in the levels of bookings and enquiries. Consistent with the sellers in other
countries, Irish sellers reported a continuation of the late booking trend.


4.8      Japan

Tourist arrivals from Japan fell by 24 per
cent in May 2009 and fell by 45 per cent
in June 2009 compared to the same
months the previous year. Tourism
Australia estimates that Japanese
arrivals will be down by up to 40 per cent
in July 2009 compared to the same
months in 2008 due mainly to the
significant impact of H1N1 on the School
excursion segment.



Visa applications from Japan fell by over
40 per cent and 50 per cent across all visa types in June and July 2009 respectively, compared to
the same months in the previous year.

Japanese sellers, while reporting some improvements in July enquiries, have mostly reported
strong decline in bookings for the period July to September (more than 25 per cent). Sellers have
commented that the cancellations were primarily due to H1N1, and significantly the peak
season for the school excursion segment. Sellers also noted a tendency for travellers to choose
‘shorter-haul’ destinations (e.g. Micronesia) over Australia and Hawaii.

www.tourism.australia.com/globalmarketmonitor
                                                21


Sellers reported that the Japanese tourists generally feel Australia, with the exception of Cairns,
as an expensive destination. Short lead time is also a key trend observed by the sellers, noting
that the airlines’ heavy discounting practices cause a ‘deflationary spiral’ in the prices, which
provide consumers with great incentives to hold-out their purchases until the last minute.
Furthermore, one seller noted that the airlines are tightening the conditions for group bookings
(for group tours), and this is providing sellers with the disincentive to promote group tours to
countries such as Australia.


4.9      China

The Chinese market went into decline
around mid 2008, following the
catastrophic Sichuan Earthquake and the
Government’s and public’s reaction of
cutting outbound travel. This trend was
reinforced by a stay at home approach
for the Beijing Olympics and the
cancellation of the National Golden
Week holiday period.




Tourist arrivals from China fell by 18 per cent in May 2009 and fell by 21 per cent in June 2009
compared to the same months the previous year. It is estimated that Chinese arrivals will be
down by a more moderate 4 per cent in July.

Leisure visa applications from China were down during May and June 2009 compared to the
same months in the previous year. Business visas declined in May however improved in June.
Leisure visa applications account for approximately 75 percent of all visa applications lodged and
lead actual arrivals by around a month.

Sellers in China reported a sharp drop (common to report over 25 per cent drop) in the levels of
enquiries and bookings for June, July and August. Cancellations in July and August were also over
25 per cent for many sellers. Almost all sellers cited the H1N1 and the associated government
advice on overseas travelling (and the strict quarantine policy) as the main cause of this drop.
But some sellers also noted that June and July are traditionally a weak season, therefore, the
sharp drop in percentage exaggerates what is a small volume.

The short-term outlook varies with some sellers indicating that many bookings in July have been
postponed to August and September. Some sellers are cautiously optimistic about the corporate
tour and FIT in the coming months once the H1N1 flu is under control. Sellers are generally
positive towards the National holiday period in October. Sellers maintain that Australia remains
a top destination for Chinese tourists due to its ‘safe and healthy’ image.




www.tourism.australia.com/globalmarketmonitor
                                                22




4.10     Hong Kong

Tourist arrivals from Hong Kong were
flat in May 2009 and declined 18 per cent
in June 2009 compared to the same
months the previous year. Tourism
Australia estimates that Hong Kong
arrivals will grow by up to 5 per cent in
July 2009.




Visa applications from Hong Kong overall were flat in May and down in June 2009 compared to
the same months in the previous year. While working holiday maker visas grew during May and
June, they account for a small proportion of all visa applications from Hong Kong. Visa
applications are a reasonable leading indicator for total arrivals from Hong Kong by around one
month.

We received limited feedback from Hong Kong based sellers in the latest wave of the Global
Market Monitor as to the main cause of this decline. Sellers reported no change in the levels of
bookings, enquiries and cancellations for other months. Some sellers asserted that trips have
been postponed to October and December. Sellers also noted a very short lead time of less than
4 weeks.


4.11     Korea

Tourist arrivals from Korea fell by 25 per
cent in May 2009 and fell by 20 per cent
in June 2009 compared to the same
months in the previous year. Tourism
Australia estimates that Korean arrivals
will be down by at least 22 per cent in
July, compared to last year.




Visa applications from Korea declined
over the May/June 2009 period compared to the same period last year. Business and working
holiday maker visas improved on last year for May and June, however leisure visa applications
which account for the largest proportion of applications, declined by over thirty percent during
May and June. Leisure visa applications lodged to visit Australia lead actual arrivals by around a
month.




www.tourism.australia.com/globalmarketmonitor
                                                23


Most Korean respondents specialised in group travel products. Most Korean sellers reported
steep declines (more than 20 per cent) in enquiries, and increase in cancellations for July/August
compared with last year. And for several respondents, September enquiries and bookings appear
to be mixed with some reporting small increases in bookings whilst others still not seeing any
improvement compared to the same period last year. Swine flu was identified as the prime
culprit for the decline, but the poor economic conditions and short lead time to bookings were
also common comments made by the sellers.


4.12     Singapore

Tourist arrivals from Singapore were flat
in May 2009 and grew by 7 per cent in
June 2009. Tourism Australia estimates
that Singaporean arrivals will decline by
approximately 8 to 14 per cent in July
2009, compared to last year.




Visa applications from Singapore
declined in May and June 2009 compared to the same months in the previous year. Applications
for holiday and business visas are a reasonable leading indicator for total arrivals from
Singapore. Commonly, the lead of visa applications is around one to two months ahead of
arrivals.

Singaporean based sellers noted steep declines in bookings for July/August period compared to
the same months last year. Cancellations, on average, appear unaffected but enquiries dropped
significantly (with all respondents reporting at least 15 per cent decline) in June.

Singaporean sellers commented that H1N1 had a greater impact for outbound tourism among
Singaporeans than the GFC. The general trend has been a substitution of long-haul trips towards
short-haul trips. Consequently, American and European destinations, and to an extent even
Australia, missed out on the 2009 season as Singaporeans favoured Malaysia, Phuket, Koh Samui
and Bali. Sellers also experienced a strong decline in group travel enquiries and bookings (and
increase in cancellations). An interesting point was made by one firm that the trend towards late
bookings is partly fuelled by the fare dumping practices by airlines.




www.tourism.australia.com/globalmarketmonitor
                                                24




4.13     Malaysia

Tourist arrivals from Malaysia grew by 28
per cent in May 2009 and grew by 46 per
cent in June 2009 compared to last year.
Tourism Australia estimates that July
2009 will grow by up to 18 per cent on
last year.




Visa applications from Malaysia grew
during May and were flat in June 2009 compared to the same months in the previous year. Visa
applications for leisure and business visas are a reasonable leading indicator for total arrivals
from Malaysia. Commonly, the lead of visa applications is around one to two months ahead of
total arrivals.

It was common for Malaysian based sellers to report declines of more than 25 per cent in
bookings for the July/August 2009 period compared to the same months in 2008. Contrary to
the results from the previous Global Market Monitor, it was common for Malaysian sellers to
report an increase in the FIT demand. Consumer behavioural traits such as greater tendency to
bargain-hunt, short lead-time to bookings and ‘wait-and-see’ attitude were common
observations among the sellers.


4.14     India

Tourist arrivals from India grew by 6 per
cent in May 2009 but declined by 1 per
cent in June 2009, compared to last year.
Tourism Australia estimates that Indian
arrivals will improve by between 14 and
18 per cent in July 2009, compared to last
year.




Total visa applications from India
declined in May and improved in June
2009 compared to the same months in the previous year.

Indian sellers reported mixed results for July enquiries and bookings with figures fluctuating
between +25 and -25 per cent across sellers. Cancellations did not change over the same period
last year.

Going forward there were no reports of cancellations however some agents reported a drop off
in enquires for the next two to three months.

Sellers were generally still positive about the short-term outlook, and identified the trend of
growing interest for new Australian destinations.

www.tourism.australia.com/globalmarketmonitor
                                                25

4.15     Taiwan

While this market has been weakening since 2005, recent shifts in the environment imply a less
negative outlook at least in the short
term. Tourist arrivals from Taiwan grew
by 53 per cent in May 2009 but fell 3 per
cent in June 2009, compared to last year.
Tourism Australia estimates that
Taiwanese arrivals will be up by about 16
to 20 per cent in July 2009.

Visa applications from Taiwan grew
during the May and June 2009 period
compared to the same months in the
previous year. Visa applications for
leisure are a reasonable leading indicator
for total arrivals from Taiwan.
Commonly, the lead of visa applications is only around one month ahead of turning points in
total arrivals.

Taiwanese sellers reported mixed results with some reporting slight improvements in enquires
and bookings while others reporting up to 25 per cent decline. Sellers noted that while
cancellation levels did not change much, those who cancelled were primarily motivated by the
H1N1 news. Taiwanese sellers also observed the trend towards short lead time for bookings.



4.16     Other markets (outside the above 15)

Nearly one quarter of total arrivals in
2008 came from markets outside the top
15. Arrivals for markets outside the
above 15 markets improved by 6 per cent
in May 2009 but fell 1 per cent in June
2009. Tourism Australia estimates that
these arrivals will be down by up to 25
per cent in July 2009. The strongest
growth markets (outside the Top 15)
include the Gulf region, Indonesia,
Vietnam and the Philippines.



Visa applications from markets outside the top 15 have declined in the May to June 2009 period
compared to the same months in the previous year. This suggests that arrivals from these other
markets might slow in coming months.




www.tourism.australia.com/globalmarketmonitor

								
To top