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i ii PRICES OF BANK OF BOTSWANA PUBLICATIONS ii Domestic SADC Members Rest of the World 1. Research Bulletin (per copy) ii P11.00 US$5.00 US$10.00 2. Annual Report (per copy) ii P22.00 US$10.00 US$15.00 3. Botswana Financial Statistics Free US$25.00 US$40.00 (annual, 12 issues) ii 4. Aspects of the Botswana P82.50 US$29.00 US$42.00 Economy: Selected Papers ii ii Please note that all domestic prices cover surface mail postage and are inclusive of VAT. Other prices include airmail postage and are free of VAT. Cheques, drafts, etc., should be drawn in favour of Bank of Botswana and i forwarded to the Librarian, Bank of Botswana, Private Bag 154, Gaborone, Botswana. RELEASE DATES FOR ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL NEWS FOR THE BANK OF BOTSWANA WEBSITE Regular economic and financial highlights are published on the Bank of Botswana website according to the following timetable: Inflation: around the 10th day of each month following the release of the monthly Consumer Price Statistics by the Central Statistics Office. Commercial bank credit: around the 27th day of each month. Exchange rates: by the end of the first business day following the end of each month. Botswana Stock Exchange: on the first business day following the end of each trading week. Bank of Botswana Certificates: on Wednesdays, the day following the regular Tuesday BoBC auctions. Botswana Financial Statistics: around the last day of the month following the publication. ii iiii ABBREVIATIONS USED THROUGHOUT THE BFS ABC African Banking Corporation iiii BoB Bank of Botswana BoBC Bank of Botswana Certificate iiii BOTASH Botswana Ash iiii BBS Botswana Building Society BDC Botswana Development Corporation iiii BFS Botswana Financial Statistics iiii BGI Botswana Game Industries BIHL Botswana Insurance Holdings Ltd iiii BMC Botswana Meat Commission BMVAF ii Botswana Motor Vehicle Accident Fund BSB Botswana Savings Bank BSE Botswana Stock Exchange CPI Consumer Price Index CSO Central Statistics Office DF Development Fund ECH Electronic Clearing House EFT Electronic Funds Transfer FISIM Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured FNBB First National Bank of Botswana FCA Foreign Currency Account GDP Gross Domestic Product IMF International Monetary Fund PDSF Public Debt Service Fund P Pula RSF Revenue Stabilisation Fund SDR Special Drawing Rights of the IMF t thebe iii iiiiii HIGHLIGHTS iiiiii (Relevant table numbers in brackets) Inflation (2.1-2.5) In December 2005, inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index iiiiii (CPI) increased to 11.4 percent, 0.1 percent up from 11.3 percent in November. Apart from increases in inflation for furniture and appliances iiiiii (by 0.7 percent from 7.6 to 8.3 percent) and leisure (by 0.5 percent from 4.4 percent to 4.9 percent) there were only marginal upward movements: for alcohol and tobacco (from 16.7 to 16.9 percent), and clothing and footwear iiiiii (from 1.8 to 1.9 percent). Together these offset decreases registered in fuel and power (from 27.4 to 26.7 percent), household operations (from 10.9 to iiiiii 10.7 percent), health and personal care (from 4.7 to 4.0 percent) and transport and communication (from 20.4 to 20.1 percent). By tradeability, inflation rose iiiiii slightly from 13.5 to 13.6 percent in the tradeable category whilst it declined from 6.1 to 6.0 percent for non-tradeable goods and services. iii Monetary Supply (3.1-3.4) Between September and October, 2005 M1 and M2 fell by P516.3 million (14 percent) and P432.5 million (3.7 percent, respectively. This was due to decreases in demand deposits and currency outside banks of P475.2 million (16.1 percent) and P41.1 million (5.6 percent), respectively. M3 and M4 increased by P290.0 million (1.5 percent), and P649.3 million (3.0 percent), respectively. The increase in M3 was due to a rise in Bank of Botswana Certificates of P722.5 million (9.6 percent) while the growth in M4 was due to increase of P359.3 million (14.5 percent in foreign currency deposits. Net foreign assets increased by P1 507.4 million (4.3 percent) to P36 219.3 million in October from P34 711.9 million the previous month. The increase was a result of rise in Bank of Botswana foreign assets by P1 008.7 million (3.0 percent) and P83.6 million (2.9 percent) increase in commercial banks’ foreign assets against a decrease of P415.0 million (24.8 percent) in foreign liabilities of commercial banks. The increase in Bank of Botswana foreign exchange reserves was mainly a result of domestic foreign exchange inflows (P110.2 million), net currency revaluation gains (P981.9 million) and interest and dividend income (P94.2 million) that were offset by net market losses (P173.4 million). Total Deposits (3.13-3.16) Total deposits held by commercial banks were P13 758.4 million in November, 2005 down by P68.9 million (0.5 percent) from P13 827.3 million in October. While there was a substantial decline fixed deposits up to six months of P447.7 million (28.6 percent) this was substantially off seet by increases of P210.4 million (3.1 percent) and P108 million (19.5 percent) in call accounts and deposits fixed for up to 12 months. Credit Growth (3.17-3.19) The year-on-year growth in commercial banks’ credit was 6.9 percent in November 2005 compared to 8.0 percent in October. This is 4.1 percent below the lower end of the Bank of Botswana credit growth target range for 2005 of 11-14 percent. The fall in the annual rate of credit growth was attributable to lower year-on-year growth in credit to the business sector, which was down to 1.0 percent from 5.4 percent in October. Month-on- month, credit to this sector fell by 0.6 percent. At the same time, year-on- year growth in credit to the household sector was 11.5 percent, up 1.5 percent from 10.0 percent in October. The monthly growth in credit to households rose from 0.1 percent in October to 1.7 percent in November. The share of credit to the household sector in overall credit increased to 59.0 percent from 58.4 percent in October. iv Bank of Botswana Certificates (4.3) iviv The value of outstanding Bank of Botswana Certificates increased by P319.1 million (2.6 percent) to P12 671.9 million in November from P12 352.8 million in October. The increase in BoBCs is attributed to the rise in own iviv holdings of commercial banks of P26.6 million (0.6 percent) and their holding on behalf of customers of P193.3 million (4.6 percent), and other iviv financial institutions holdings of P157.8 million (12.0 percent). Exchange Rates (6.5) iviv During November 2005, the Pula appreciated against all major international currencies except the rand, against which it depreciated by 2.1 percent. It appreciated most against the Japanese yen (4.3 percent) and least against the iviv US dollar (0.1 percent). On an annual basis, the Pula depreciated against all major currencies. The smallest depreciation was 9.4 percent against the iviv Japanese yen while the largest was 21.8 percent against the US dollar. Foreign Reserves (6.10) Following a slight decrease in September, foreign exchange reserves increased iviv by P1 009 million (3.0 percent) in October to P34 544 million from P33 535 million. The increase was the result of net revaluation gains of P981.9 million, iv domestic foreign exchange inflow of P110.2 million and interest and dividends income of P94.2 million. These were offset by net market losses of P173.4 million. In US dollar and SDR terms, the foreign exchange reserves decreased, respectively, by USD51.6 million and SDR23.4 million, to USD6 155.8 million and SDR4 275.8 million. v vv CONTENTS Page vv 1. National Output vv 1.1 Gross Domestic Product by Type of Expenditure - Current Prices 1 1.2 vv Gross Domestic Product by Type of Expenditure - Constant 1993/94 Prices 2 1.3 Gross Domestic Product by Type of Economic Activity - Current Prices 3 vv 1.4 Gross Domestic Product by Type of Economic Activity - Constant 1993/94 Prices vv 4 vv 2. Prices v 2.1 Cost of Living Index by Location (November 1996 =100.0) 5 2.2 Cost of Living Index (November 1996 =100.0) 6 2.3 Annual Inflation 6 2.4 Cost of Living Index by Commodity Group (November 1996 =100.0) 7 2.5 Cost of Living Index: Tradeability Analysis (November 1996 =100.0) 8 3. Banking System 3.1 Monetary Survey: Monthly Balances 9 3.2 Monetary Survey: Monthly Percentage Change 10 3.3 Monetary Survey: Year-end/Quarterly Balances 11 3.4 Monetary Survey: Year-on-Year Percentage Change 12 3.5 Bank of Botswana: Assets 13 3.6 Bank of Botswana: Liabilities 14 3.7 Notes in Circulation: by Denomination 15 3.8 Coins in Circulation: by Denomination 16 3.9 Commercial Banks: Assets 17 3.10 Commercial Banks: Liabilities 18 3.11 Commercial Banks: Liquid Assets 19 3.12 Commercial Banks: Reserves 20 3.13 Commercial Banks: Deposits by Holder 21 3.14 Commercial Banks: Deposits by Type 22 3.15 Commercial Banks: Deposits by Holder (Percentage Distribution) 23 3.16 Commercial Banks: Deposits by Type (Percentage Distribution) 24 3.17 Commercial Banks: Loans and Advances Outstanding by Sector 25 vi vivi 3. Banking System (continued) vivi 3.18 Commercial Bank Credit: Outstanding Loans and Advances to Households vivi 26 3.19 Commercial Banks: Advances and Liquid Asset Ratios 27 3.20 vivi Commercial Banks: Loans and Advances by Maturity 28 3.21 Commercial Banks: Loans and Advances by Interest Rate vivi (Percentage Distribution) 29 3.22 vivi Commercial Banks: Off-Balance Sheet Items 30 3.23 Commercial Banks: Income and Expenses 31 vivi 3.24 Commercial Banks: Arrears on Loans and Advances 32 3.25 Commercial Banks: Arrears by Sector vi 33 3.26 Electronic Clearing House (ECH) – Cheque Clearance and Electronic Funds Transfer (EFTS) 34 4. Money and Capital Markets 4.1 Interest Rates 35 4.2 Interest Rates: Nominal and Real 36 4.3 Bank of Botswana Certificates: Total Outstanding 37 4.4 Bank of Botswana Certificates: Auctions Summary 38 4.5 Botswana Stock Exchange: Total Listings 39 5. Non-Bank Financial Institutions 5.1 Merchant Banks: Assets and Liabilities 40 5.2 Botswana Building Society: Assets and Liabilities 41 5.3 Botswana Development Corporation Ltd: Assets and Liabilities 42 5.4 Botswana Motor Vehicle Accident Fund: Assets and Liabilities 43 5.5 Botswana Savings Bank: Assets and Liabilities 44 5.6 Hire Purchase Finance and Leasing Companies: Assets and Liabilities 45 5.7 National Development Bank: Assets and Liabilities 46 5.8 Distribution of Pension Fund Assets 47 6. External Trade and International Finance 6.1 Balance of Payments Analysis 48 6.2 Balance of Payments Summary 49 6.3 Exports: Principal Merchandise 50 vii 6.4 Exports: Selected Commodity Price viivii Indices 51 6. External Trade and International Finance (continued) viivii 6.5 Exchange Rates: Foreign Currency Per Pula viivii 52 6.6 Exchange Rates: Foreign Currency Per Pula - Averages 53 6.7 viivii Exchange Rates: Selected Foreign Currencies Per US Dollar 54 6.8 Exchange Rates: Selected Foreign Currencies Per US Dollar - Averages 55 viivii 6.9 Real Exchange Rates Indices: Foreign Currency Per Pula 56 6.10 viivii Foreign Exchange Reserves: Selected Currencies 57 6.11 Commercial Banks: Foreign Currency Accounts and Total Deposits 58 viivii 6.12 Commercial Banks: Foreign Currency Deposits by Type 59 6.13 Foreign Currencies: Sales by the Banking Sector vii 60 6.14 Foreign Currencies: Purchases by the Banking Sector 61 6.15 International Investment Position 62 7. Public Finance 7.1 Government: Budget Summary 63 7.2 Government Revenue 64 7.3 Government Expenditure 65 7.4 Government Lending: Outstanding Loans (PDSF, RSF and DF) 66 7.5 Government: Medium and Long Term External Government Guaranteed Debt Outstanding 67 The following symbols have been used throughout this publication: ... to indicate that data are not available, either because information was not available to the Bank of Botswana at the time of publication, or that a facility/institution/classification, etc., did not exist; and - to indicate that the figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown. Any changed data appear in bold/italics. viii Notes : viiiviii 1. Tables in this publication are prepared according to relevant international standards. In particular they viiiviii follow the guidelines set out in System of National Accounts (SNA) and the relevant manuals of the IMF, including the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual 2000, 5th Balance of Payments Manual and the viiiviii 1986 Government Finance Statistics Manual. 2. viiiviii In most cases the tables report data over a ten-year period up to the most recent time for which data is available. However, in some cases the reporting period may be either shorter or longer depending on data viiiviii availability and the space needed for reporting. 3. viiiviii The publication is reviewed on a regular basis to ensure the reporting of relevant data and to enhance presentation. Hence there may be some variation in content and presentation from year to year. The viiiviii following tables have been included for the first time effective April 2005 publication: viii 3.18 Commercial Bank Credit: Outstanding Loans and Advances to Households 3.26 Electronic Clearing House (ECH) – Cheque Clearance and Electronic Funds Transfer (EFTS) 4.1 Interest Rates (combining previous Tables 4.1 – 4.3) 4. For some tables, numbers do not add up to stated totals due to rounding off.
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