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The G20 The Financial Times plans to publish this Special Report on June 25, 2010. Advertising booking deadline: about 5 weeks before (Advertising copy deadline: about 2 weeks before) We plan to include the following features (please note that this list is provisional): 1. Introduction A slow and unbalanced recovery The G20 meets in Toronto on June 26-27 amid a continuing slow and unbalanced world recovery. Its main aim will be to foster stability and sustainability in the global economy as it emerges from crisis. ECONOMIC BACKDROP 2. Exit Strategies To what extent are countries moving back to normality from extreme monetary, fiscal and financial policies? This article will examine the progress so far, the role of coordination in the G20 and long road ahead. 3. Eurozone Woes Continental Europe came out of recession early, but speed masked wider tensions in the single currency area. Has Europe now managed to solve its internal tensions and can the area become a motor of global growth once more? 4. China and Its Exchange Rate The G20 Pittsburgh summit avoided opening festering wounds on global exchange rates by brushing the issue under the carpet. Is it the price China will demand for co-operation at the G20, or is it becoming more willing to think about changes to its dollar peg? 5. Is it Back to Business as Usual in Financial Markets? The recovery in financial markets led the wider economic bounce. But recovery led to a re-emergence of some of the pre-crisis practices, particularly in paying large bonuses. How far has the landscape in financial markets really changed almost three years after the crisis started? THE G20 AGENDA 6. Progress in Developing a Framework for Strong and Balanced Growth The Pittsburgh G20 summit agreed a framework for strong, stable and balanced growth, setting up a process monitored by the IMF. The Fund has now pronounced that countries’ forecasts are inconsistent since there is too great a reliance on exports in most G20 countries. Will the framework develop teeth or procedures that will lead to changes in policy or will it be largely ignored? 7. Financial Regulation 2010 – The Year of Tough Choices By the end of 2010, global regulators have pledged to have agreed the new financial regulatory landscape. What is already agreed? Is the process on track? And what are the main remaining obstacles? 8. A Levy on Banks – An Idea of its Time The International Monetary Fund reported on the possibility of a new levy on banks at its Spring 2010 meetings, leaving any decision to the G20. Though the consensus on the idea has built steadily over the past year, is the idea ready now for implementation? 9. The Korean Agenda South Korea is the first country outside the G8 to chair the G20 since it gained its new prominence in global affairs. It will emphasise emerging economies when it chairs the G20 in November and seek agreement for its idea of a “global financial safety net,” which it believes can help achieve more balanced global economic growth. THE INSTITUTION OF THE G20 10. A Body Aiming for Takeover from 2011 The G20 is already calling itself the “premier forum for international economic cooperation”. The influence of the G8 is waning. Will a transfer of power become complete in 2011 and could an amalgamation of the G20 and IMF integrate all of the world’s economic governance under one unified structure. 11. Global Governance the G20 and Satellite Organisations The G20 is not alone in managing the global economy. It must work with the World Bank on development, the FSB on regulation, the IMF on early warning and surveillance and the OECD on tax havens. How do these bodies work together? 12. New Faces at the Summit It is quite possible that a new British prime minister will go to the Canada G20 summit as his first big summit. The same is true of the Japanese leadership. How will the new faces blend in with those for whom the G20 is a regular part of the diplomatic year? 13. What France Wants with the G20 France will take over the chairmanship of both the G8 and G20 in 2011. How far are its tentative plans to merge the two organisations advanced. Will global governance appear very different in a year’s time? ECONOMIC RISKS FOR THE RECOVERY 14. Protectionism – The Dog That Didn’t Bark A big fear of the global recession was a return to protectionism. Apart from minor trade barriers, world leaders refrained from efforts to protect domestic population from the effects of the downturn. Can such restraint survive the recovery? 15. Labour Market Puzzles – Why is US Unemployment so High Almost alone among advanced economies, the US has seen a much larger fall in employment than output. Jobs has become the most important issue, while labour markets in other countries have been more benign. To what extent will the US suffer from its active firing practices, or is it a sign of its greater dynamism? 16. Government Bond Markets – The Next Leg of the Crisis Will a sovereign debt crisis come next? Markets have so far swallowed huge increases in sovereign debt. Will they require greater compensation for holding debt and will some countries be unable to pay? CANADA AS HOSTS OF G20 17. Canada’s Crisis Canada has enjoyed a much better ride through the crisis other advanced economies. Was this just a product of its tough financial regulation and commodity-driven economy? What else did Canada get right? 18. Tensions Between the G8 and the G20 Canada insisted on a G20 summit, following immediately on the back of the G8 summit in Muskoka. This has led to suspicions among emerging economies that the rich G8 will use its earlier summit as a preparatory meeting, leaving a fait acomplis for the G20 summit. How will Canada manage these tensions? 19. Toronto – The Host City Toronto is hosting the G20. How is it planning to manage the security surrounding the event and what does it see as the main benefits of appearing in the global spotlight? 20. Stephen Harper – Ambitions for Canada Stephen Harper’s theme for the G20 is “Recovery and new beginnings” and wants to see the summit as “less about new agreements than accountability for existing ones”. Putting real results at the heart of the summit strategy is a risk. How is the man suited to ensuring such risks pay off. 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