MISHAP TREND ANALYSIS
Analysis1.doc
(By Carl C. Frank, Code 481) Trends are analyzed using mishap rates. All commands should have a working knowledge of mishap trend analysis. Commanding officers can use mishap rates to conduct an overall trend analysis of almost any portion of training, work, exercises, etc. that his command is engaged in (as well as utilizing an overall mishap rate). These analyses may be used for comparison against previous time periods for the same unit, other units, training exercises, field problems, etc. However, if the data you use is not accurate - the results will not be accurate. As with any mathematical analysis, the more data points available - the more accurate your results will be. The computation is extremely simple and consists of taking the number of injuries, multiplied by 200,000 (a mathematical constant) and the results divided by the number of hours worked. If the exact number of hours worked is not known, you can utilize 173.3 hours per man per month. Example: A unit with an average of 150 men has 5 lost time mishaps during a quarter: 150 men x 173.3 = 25,995 hrs per mo x 3 mo = 77,985 hrs worked per qtr. 5 mishaps x 200,000 = 1,000,000/77,985 = 12.82 mishap rate (Note: This is a rate, NOT a percentage.) By plotting the mishap rates on a simple line graph (with the mishap rate on the “y” [or vertical] axis and the time frame on the “x” [horizontal] axis), general trends may be quickly spotted and corrective action applied before the trend gets out of hand. (See chart 1.)
RATE 16 14 12 10 8 6 1/03 2/03 3/03 QUARTE R 4/03 1/04
MISHAP RATES (Chart 1)
If a general trend is noticed, further analysis is often called for to identify the precise problem. Again, the procedures are relatively simple. For example, if you notice that the number of mishaps is rising, you could chart the number of mishaps by using the type of injury (cut, strain, fracture, etc.) on the “y” axis and the number of mishaps on the “x” axis. This will pinpoint the most prevalent type of injury. (See chart 2.)
Th Yr P2 E) S O F M I( S H A P S C a t
( N o . o f I n j u r i e s ) T Y P E L a c e r a t i o n S p r a i n F r a c4 t u r e H e a t S t r e s s C o n t u s i o n
1 D i s l o c a t i o n 8 1 7 1 0 1 3
0 5 1 0 1 5 2 0 N O . M I S H A P S
1 At this point I would construct a similar chart (for the same period) only I would change the “x” axis to show the number of lost work days. The reason for this is that you may find that while heat stress is causing the
most mishaps, strains are costing you the most in loss of work days and is therefore a problem area that will require further evaluation. (See chart 3.)
T ( Y h P a Er St O F3 M I C S H A P S )
(a L o s ts W o r k D y ) T Y P E L a c e r a 1 t i o 3 n S p r a i n F r a c t u r e H e a t S t r e s s C o9 n t u s i o n D in s l o c a t i o
1 8 2 3 2 6 3 9
0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 N O . R L O S T W O K D A Y S
The next step in the analysis would call for taking the work task being performed at the time of the mishap. Use the work task in the “y” axis and the chart will show you what task is causing the most mishaps (see chart 4).
H E A T S T R E S S ( C h a r t 4 )
( ih W o) ro kp T a s k a t a T m e f M i s T A S K
5 P r e p f o r M o v e
D i g g i n g I n F o r c e M a r c h F iu r e & M a n e v e r P h y s is c a l F i t n e s
2 2 2 8 1 8 1 3
8 O t h e r
0 5 1 0 1 5 2 0 2 5 3 0 3 5 N O . S O F M I S H A P
Additional breakdowns are possible depending on what answers you are seeking. You might take the above example and break down the work task causing the problem by time of day or location (or both), etc. (See chart 5.)
H E A T S T R E S S ( C h a r t 5 )
( F o r c e M a r c h ) M i s h a p s 1 0 8 6 4 2
8 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 3
1
0 00 6 0 15 7 02 8 03 9 14 1 16 17 18 19 10 1 1 1 2 T i m e o f D a y
0 0 0 0
In general, mishap trend analysis is an effective method used to identify and correct safety problems. It does require accurate and effective mishap reporting of all mishaps in a timely fashion. All reports must be factual and must contain enough information to ensure that proper analysis can be conducted.
2