Daily Metals Commentary by mifei


									                                                                                 Daily Metals Commentary
                                                                                      Wednesday April 14, 2010


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GOLD +4.80, SILVER +14.60, PLATINUM +12.60

London Gold Fix $1159.00 +9.75 LME Copper Stocks (Apr 14) 509,650 tons -
GOLD stks 10.074 ml oz +698 oz SILVER stks 115.8 ml oz +748,687 oz

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: While the US Dollar is showing signs of weakness this morning, the
metals markets seem to be garnering their bullish initial tilt from improved economic expectations in the wake of
an up beat tech sector earnings report overnight. With Intel beating expectations and suggesting they were seeing
increased business spending, that seems to have lent fresh support to precious metals and a host of physical
commodity markets. One might also suggest that concern toward the Greek debt issue was relegated to a back
burner status. With the markets expecting some form of moderate gain in US retail sales readings later this
morning the positive tilt toward the economy might be sustained into and through the US Wednesday morning
action. With energies and a number of industrial commodity markets trading higher today, the outside market
influences would seem to be initially favoring the bull camp. There will also be a US CPI report out this morning
and expectations for that report aren't particularly significant.

GOLD MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: The June gold contract has managed to rise above the prior session's high
in the early action today and it generally managed to respect the even number $1,150 on the charts early today.
The bull camp will suggest that the market is seeing an improved macro economic sentiment, without much in the
way of fresh anxiety from the EU debt front. The bear camp is trying to play up the prospect of a possible change
in the Fed's interest rate statement, with the Fed's Lacker overnight suggesting he was becoming less
comfortable with the leaving rates low for an extended period of time statement. If the bull camp is really
benefiting from improved economic sentiment, then this morning's retail sale report should give the bull's added
incentive. With the US CPI report also due out today, there could be some cross currents for the gold trade from
the Fed policy debate front. The gold market might also garner some lift from very favorable Indian monthly gold
import figures overnight but recently the gold market has tended to give demand side stories more credence than
supply side developments. Gold Stocks for April 12th were 10.074 million ounces up 698 ounce. Therefore, gold
stocks have extended their recent pattern of new record stock levels. The bull camp has come back into control
again and this time there would seem to be several themes contributing to the upside tilt. In addition to impressive
Indian gold imports, the trade is seeing higher equities, a better economic outlook and a weaker US Dollar. Close-
in support is seen at $1,154.70 in the June gold today, but there might not be much in the way of resistance until
the $1,165.80 level. In fact, in the face of a big range up move in the equity markets today, the gold market could
even make a bid at the $1,175 level. However, in order to keep the bull tilt intact, the market probably doesn't
want to see something patently hot from the CPI report, as that could prompt talk of higher US interest rates. At
least at the start today, the gold bulls have a real chance to push prices higher, but some buyers might be waiting
for confirmation of a decent US retail sales reading. It is possible that investment interest for gold could return in
earnest and that could result in a very big upward move directly ahead.
SILVER MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: While May silver has managed to rise above the prior session's high in the
early Wednesday trade, the silver market was still trading below this week's highs. However, silver and other
physical commodities seem to be benefiting from an improved macro economic outlook that seems to be the
result of better than expected Intel Corporate earnings news. However, the silver market did see news of
increased 1st quarter physical silver production from a key Mexican silver mining company overnight and that
might have held back prices early today. Surprisingly the copper market is showing some weakness early this
morning and that might be considered a minor negative outside market issue for silver by some traders. In
another minor negative, exchange silver stocks for April 12th were 115.815 million ounces up 748,687 ounces. It
would appear that silver is set to behave like a classic physical commodity market that is at least temporarily
being cheered by favorable economic views. The big question will be whether the US retail sales and CPI reports
further economic optimism or will they temper the new found optimism. The bulls have the edge from a number of
angles this morning. With the noted correction over the two prior trading sessions, the bull camp should also have
the benefit of favorable short term technical arguments. We see the distinct prospect of a fresh new high for the
move and a trade at the highest level since January 20th. Initial resistance today is seen at $18.60 and critical
close-in pivot point support on the charts is pegged at $18.35. Under a consistent improvement in economic
sentiment, we see a near term run up to $18.875. It is possible that investment interest for silver could return
today and that could result in some significant upside action in silver over the coming trading sessions.

Note: Technical commentary is based solely on statistical indicators and does not necessarily correspond to any fundamental analysis that
may appear elsewhere in this report.

COMEX GOLD (JUN) 04/14/2010: Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory which will tend to support
reversal action if it occurs. The market's short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving
average. The market setup is somewhat negative with the close under the 1st swing support. The near-term
upside target is at 1164.7. The next area of resistance is around 1158.7 and 1164.7, while 1st support hits today
at 1146.1 and below there at 1139.4.

COMEX SILVER (MAY) 04/14/2010: Studies are showing positive momentum but are now in overbought territory,
so some caution is warranted. The market's short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving
average. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was lower than the pivot swing number. The near-term
upside objective is at 1855.3. The next area of resistance is around 1842.2 and 1855.3, while 1st support hits
today at 1805.8 and below there at 1782.4.

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