AFIR Colloquium Unrealized Gains in Stocks from the Viewpoint of

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					2nd AFIR Colloquium 1991, 2: 279-286
Unrealized Gains in Stocks from the Viewpoint of Investment Risk Management
Naoki Matsuyama

Investment Administration Department, The Neiji Mutual Life Insurance Company, 1-1 Marunouchi, 2-chome, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, Japan

Summary
On the cost basis or “cost or market whichever is lower” basis (adopted in Japan and some European countries), most insurance companies have more or less excess of market over book value of equities. This paper focuses on those unrealized gains in stocks and those mechanism for controlling evaluation loss in stocks on “cost or market whichever is lower” basis, from the viewpoint of the life insurance company of which portfolio consist of traditional fixed premium products. First, the anticipated evaluation loss in the stock portfolio is estimated by the level of those unrealized gains, for reservation for future possible evaluation loss in stocks. Second, the preferable level of unrealized gains which have preferable level of risk of evaluation loss is estimated on buy-and-hold strategy (which is typical in investment in stocks in the life insurance companies above). And, estimations above are based on some simple stochastic models (the lognormal distribution).

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Résumé Bénéfices d’Actions Non Réalisés du Point de Vue de le Gestion du Risque de Placement
Sur la base des coûts ou sur la base “coûts ou marché selon celui qui est le plus faible” (adoptée au Japon et dans quelques pays européens), la plupart des compagnies d’assurance ont plus ou moins un surplus de marché sur la valeur comptable des actions ordinaires. Cet article se concentre sur les bénéfices d’actions non réalisés et sur les mécanismes destinés à contrôler la perte d’évaluation dans les actions sur une base “coûts ou marché selon celui qui est le plus faible”, du point de vue de la compagnie d’assurance sur la vie dont le portefeuille consiste en produits traditionnels à prime fixe. Premièrement, la perte d’évaluation anticipée dans le portefeuille d’actions est estimée par le niveau des bénéfices non réalisés, pour réserve de pertes d’évaluation futures éventuelles d’actions. Deuxièmement, le niveau préférable des bénéfices non réalisés qui ont un niveau préférable de risque de perte d’évaluation est estimé sur une stratégie acheter-et-conserver (qui est caractéristique de l’investissement en actions des compagnies d’assurance sur la vie cidessus). De plus, les estimations ci-dessus sont basées sur quelques modèles stochastiques simples (la distribution lognormale).

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1. Introduction In a many certain countries, percentage law gains in legal of restrictions capital require in insurance equities. In companies Japanese to reserve particular gains for in to reserve

gains

insurance excess used stocks to of for is free life

companies, listed equities are accounted on “cost or market whichever is lower” basis. realized for special Insurance capital dividend not law no.86 in as in the less requires stocks far To as insurance capital such companies losses is over for reserve

insurance

no.86,

surplus rules

exceptionally

termination. of or

appropriate

evaluation (except is In over

generally insurances). from stocks. companies

permited of

accounting competent to excess of

variable needed many of

Approval have more

authorities market

always reality, book

accumulation

surplus

no.86-reserve.

insurance domestic

value

Excess of market over book value of domestic stocks of 5 life insurance company Nippon Daiichi Sumitomo Meiji Asahi * ratio companies in Japan at the end of the fiscal (billions of yen) ratio* 162 % 140 % 96 % 198 % 130 % of market over book value / book value gains goal of ? for special of dividend is in 8%) book as a of it capital adequacy 8,842 5,641 3,251 4,350 2,609 = excess year 1989

What is the significance A function termination. for Japanese value of of those banks

of those unrealized unrealized gains is required

a provision 45% of

And BIS regulation(the admit market. to in their own funds.

appropriate

excess

market over

stocks

And, a part

may be recognized

bubble of the stock

Are there any other factors including more strategic viewpoints?

2. To control It for is easy to

evaluation see future that

loss excess of market over From this loss book value of view, of it stocks will can work be useful

making up for

evaluation possible

loss.

point

to anticipate

evaluation

in the stock

portfolio.

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2-1 Formula of the anticipated evaluation loss The most popular model for the evolution of stock prices is the lognormal

distribution,

that is

where Z:The standard normal random variable with mean 0, standard deviation 1. µ :The mean logarithmic stock return per unit time. σ :The standard deviation of logarithmic stock return per unit time. St/S . :The stock return over the instant 0 to t. ( µ and σ are defined per security.)

Here, we note that B is the book value of a security, and St is the price of a security Anticipated at time t. loss is

evaluation E [max(O , B – St)]

The first

term of the formula above is

where N; The second term is The cumulative density function of standard normal distribution.

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Hence,E [max(O , B – St)]

Formula (2-1 a) can be reexpressed by risk neutrality argument.

Because the assumption risk neutrality the market, of of of (r ; risk free interest rate) then r= Hence,E [max(O,B-St)]

NOW, anticipated evaluation loss in the stockportfolio is

S* ; securities portfolio on the 2-2 Preferable levelof the reservation evaluation for loss The level of the reserve for the future possible evaluationloss and the level of the unrealized gains in the portfolio are not to be independent each other, To make up evaluation loss in stocks,those unrealized gains and the reserve can help each other, So, to determine the level of the reservation for future possibleevaluation lossin stocks, formula(2-1a) and (2-1b) are helpful. Followingare trial calculationson 2 simple assumptions, and they show preferable levelof the reservation evaluation for loss of the next year by the ratio to the book valueof stocks. Assumption ] 1 1)We define the model security*of which daily returns have properties that the mean and the standard deviation equal to the averageof those means and standard deviations component of securities Nikkei-225. of 2)Here, use daily logarithmic we return on stocksof Nikkei-225 over the term 1983. 1987.12 (quoted from “The evolutionof stock prices in Japan” 1989, 1Kariya,Tsukuda,Maru).
[

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Nikkei-225 Model security* Figures ×250 3)The the portfolio above √ 250 should be or × (business here

mean 0.07% 0.069% transfered day basis). consists of

standard

deviation

0.94% 2.25% to annual basis by and multiplying the ratio(=

considered

model

securities,

excess of market over book value / book value) of each of the securities in portfolio are the same. 4)There are no changes in book value of stocks for one year. [ Assumption 2 ] 1)We define -225 the model security is imported of which volatility from the ratio is of 2.4 times standard that of Nikkei deviation in option.(2.4

Assumption 1.) 2)Here, we use implicit volatility of Nikkei-225 option and interest rate. We choose typical 3)The that 33% as volatility, on this assumption 7% as risk consists of free model interest securities, rate. and They are the ratio data in the 4th quarter portfolio of 1989.

(= excess of market over book value / book value) of each of the securities in the portfolio are the same. 4)There are no changes in book value of stocks for one year. 2-2-1 In Trial calculation 1, in Assumption 1 evaluation (2-1a). anticipated evaluation 6.0 % 3.9 % 1.6 % 0.7 % 0.3 % 0.1 % loss / book value at the end of the year 0% 10 % 30 % 50 % 70 % 90 % loss in the stock portfolio (for 1

Assumption

anticipated

year)

can be calculated

by formula

Ratio* at the beginnig of the year

* ratio = excess of market over book value / book value 2-2-2 Trial Trial calculation in in Assumption 2 Assumption 1 shows the anticipated level of the

calculation

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evaluation in a moderate loss situation the stock market. of In assumption we can calculate in more volatile 2, it situations imported fromthe implicit volatilities Nikkei-225 of option withformula (2-1b). Ratio* the beginnig anticipated at evaluation / book value loss of the year at the end of the year 28.4% 0% 100% 9.9% 200% 4.2 % 300% 2.0% * ratio excess market = of overbookvalue bookvalue / 2-3Preferable level riskof evaluation in stocks of loss For insurance companies which portfolios of consistof traditional fixed premium products, the typical of investment stocks a strategy in is buy-and-hold strategy. Whatis the preferable levelof risk of evaluation loss in stocks especially on buy-and-hold strategy? One idea is that the excess expected of return(market value) over the floor rate (which is required to exceed credited interest rates of insurance products) should greater be thananticipated evaluation loss. If not so, it would better invest other be to in safety assets. Theideais expressed that, E [max (0, St–F)] > Σ E [max(0 , B – 1 St)] 1 i ∈ S* S* ; securities the portfolio in where St ;Total price of the stock portfolio. of in 1 St ;Price a security the portfolio. 1 B ;Book value of a security in the portfolio. So F ;Floor rateof the stock portfolio(=× (1+f)). Theexcess expected of return overthe floor rateis, E [max(0,St-F)]
*(2-3a)*

where The folmula above can be reexpressed riskneutrality by argument. *(2-3b)* where

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The inequality above will be satisfied by controling the ratio (= excess of market over book value / book value). Following is a trial calculation. # Here, we set that St has the same properties that of Nikkei-225, of and the floor rate is 7%. In Assumption2 (withformula(2-1b),(2-3b)), preferable the ratio above is 35% and more.

3. Conclusion 1)Thereis ambiguous meaningin holdingunrealized gains in stocks.But it is important that a significant function of holding such unrealized gains in stocksis to have a natural (builtin) resistibility its investment risks, to as we have seen. 2)Calculations based on even simpler assumptions(as we have seen) will be useful for determination any regulations standards on unrealized gains of or on stocks, since there are few investment regulations that have any mathematical background our insurance in industries. It will be more interesting for investment risk management to do the above calculations the real portfolios stocks with more details. on of

REFERENCES 1. JarrowR.A., Rudd R. OptionPricing(1983IRWIN) 2. Rubinstein M., Cox J. OptionsMarkets(1978Prentice-Hall) 3. KariyaT., Tsukuda Y., Maru J., The evolution stockpricesin Japan of (1989 Toyo-keizai)

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