Biofuels and Vegetable Oil Prices
Presentation to Globoil 2007 Goa, September 2007 By James Fry LMC International Ltd, Oxford, UK Www.LMC.co.uk
Outline of the Presentation
Understanding the impact of government subsidies on today’s biodiesel market
The US “Splash & Dash” and “Touch & Go” The EU’s targets and tax incentives
Export tax incentives for biodiesel Implications for palm oil, the only oil stored solely as oil, rather than seed
The outlook for Malaysian supply-demand and prices – with sensitivity analyses
The Impact of US Biodiesel Policy:
“Splash and Dash” and “Touch and Go”
Splash & Dash/Touch & Go
The US blending credits of $1/gallon have led to a surge in B99 biodiesel exports (they need the 1% of fossil diesel to get the blending credits) from the US. Biodiesel is also imported into the US, where it receives blending credits after adding 1% diesel, and is exported as B99. Most of the exports go to the EU, where the biodiesel enjoys a second subsidy.
US Biodiesel Supply: 2007 Output & Imports
Av. of last 2 months, '000 tonnes 210 180 150 120 90 60
30
0 Feb Mar Apr
Imports
May
Output
Jun
Jul
US Imports Are Now Sizeable
In the earlier part of the year, there was uncertainty whether the “touch and go” re-export business would be stopped by the US Administration. Now that these doubts have eased, imports have risen; in July, they were near 25% of total US biodiesel supply. Nearly all imports are from SE Asia, but S. American supplies are now increasing.
Where Does US Biodiesel Supply Go?
210 180 '000 tonnes 150 120 90 60 30 0
Feb
Mar
Exports
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Domestic Consumption
US Exports Match Local Use
Thanks to the $1/gallon blending credit, both local biodiesel producers and importers of foreign biodiesel have been expanding B99 exports rapidly. Domestic biodiesel use has been stable this year at around a million tonnes/year, but exports could exceed this volume, even if there is no further growth and export tonnages remain at July’s level.
US Suppliers Face a Squeeze
US biodiesel producers face pressure on two fronts. Their product has become increasingly expensive vs. fossil diesel, restricting its ability to sell in the domestic market. The refined soybean oil price has risen to a point where net processing margins are tight, even if they are slightly better than the negative margins earlier this year.
US Biodiesel Processing Margins Fall
US$ per tonne, fossil diesel equiv.
300 250
200
150 100 50 0 -50 Feb-05 Aug-05 Feb-06 Aug-06 Feb-07 Aug-07
Soy Biodiesel Premium over Fossil Price + Blending Credit Soy Biodiesel Processing Margin
Meanwhile, EU Biodiesel Producers Come Under
Pressure from US Imports
A 2-Tier EU Biodiesel Market
The leading EU biodiesel market, that in Germany, has two separate segments. One – to meet the official biodiesel target B5 (5%) blend – pays no fuel taxation. The other – the sale of B100 biodiesel fuel for heavy transport vehicles – has, since August 2006, paid a low level of fuel taxation, of 12.5 US cents per litre, which reduces the profitability of such sales.
EU Biodiesel & Rapeseed Oil Prices
1,150 US$ per tonne, diesel equivalent 1,100 1,050 1,000 950
900
850 800 750 Jun05 Sep05 Dec05 Mar06 Jun06 Sep06 Dec06 Mar07 Jun07
German B5 Biodiesel Price Crude Rapeseed Oil
German B100 Biodiesel Price
EU Biodiesel Margins are Squeezed
US$ per tonne, diesel equivalent 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 Jun05 Sep05 Dec05 Mar06 Jun06 Sep06 Dec06 Mar07 Jun07
B5 Biodiesel Premium over Rapeseed Oil B100 Premium over Rapeseed Oil
EU Biodiesel Margins Slump
Rapeseed methyl ester enjoys a premium in the EU market and is well placed for sales when winter fuel standards apply. Nevertheless, rapeseed oil prices have risen to the point where biodiesel margins are low or negative even on B5 biodiesel used in mandates; sellers of the B100 biodiesel that pays modest German fuel tax are under even more pressure.
Export Tax Incentives Help Some Biodiesel
Exporters
Export Subsidies Play a Role
The US, as we have seen, is an example of a government that provides subsidies that allow producers to export biodiesel at competitive prices, to the EU in particular. Others now subsidise biodiesel exports: Argentina provides differential export tax advantages worth over $150 per tonne. Indonesia’s recently introduced palm oil export tax gives its biodiesel exporters an advantage of over $50.
The Implications for Palm Oil Prices
Malaysian Stocks Drive Prices
Analysis of the past behaviour of palm oil prices reveals that Malaysian stocks are their most important single determinant. Today I forecast Malaysian output, stocks and exports for three alternative cases: Case 1: Crude oil prices stay near $80; US biodiesel exports persist; food use slows. Case 2: Food demand does not slow. Case 3: US export subsidies end.
Outlook for Malaysian Output Growth
40%
Year-on-year Change %
30% 20%
10%
0% -10% -20% -30%
Jan04
Jul- Jan04 05
Jul- Jan05 06
Jul- Jan06 07
Jul- Jan07 08
Malaysian Output and Exports, Case 1
Year-on-year Change %
40% 30%
20% 10%
0% -10% -20% Jan-04
Output
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Output Forecast
Exports
Export Forecast
Malaysian Stocks and Prices, Case 1
($80 crude; food use slows; US exports continue)
Stocks, '000 tonnes, & M$/tonne 2,750 2,500 2,250 2,000
1,750
1,500 1,250 1,000 750 Jan-04 Price Jan-05 Price Forecast Jan-06 Stocks Jan-07 Jan-08 Stock Forecast
Case 1 Forecasts
Case 1 is when crude oil prices stay near $80, but food demand and some biodiesel use (e.g., in Europe) is hit by high prices. In this case, Malaysian export growth will be low, partly because the export taxes will enable Indonesia to export biodiesel more easily than Malaysia. CPO prices in this case move in a range near M$2,500 before falling away in Q1.
Impact of Biodiesel on CPO Prices
(Case 2 = Case 1 + strong demand; Case 3 = Case 1 without US subsidies)
'000 tonnes, stocks and M$/tonne 2,750 2,500
2,250
2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1,000 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 Stocks Case 1 Price Case 1 Stocks Case 2 Price Case 2 Stocks Case 3 Price Case 3
Comparing the Forecasts
In Case 2, the most bullish of the three, food and biodiesel demand is unaffected by high vegetable oil prices (alternatively, crude oil prices could rise far above $80). This lifts prices to M$2,750 before a fall. Case 3 is like Case 1, except that the US subsidies are ended on biodiesel exports. This pulls prices down to a M$2,250-2,500 range to attract new outlets for CPO.
Conclusions
Vegetable oil prices seem to have risen too high in relation to biodiesel prices. Subsidised exports, notably from the US, have been crucial in sustaining demand. Weak palm oil output tightened supply and underpinned the recent price rise; but the next 6 months will see CPO output revive. CPO prices should fall by January (sooner if US export subsidies end), unless crude petrol prices rise further in the meantime.
My Own View
The price forecasts I have presented all assume that crude oil prices stay near $80 and that the world economy steams ahead. I am less upbeat myself, fearing the knockon effects of troubles in the US. I expect crude oil prices to fall in the next 6 months; thus I go along with the lowest of my forecasts (Case 3), even if the US biodiesel export subsidies are not ended. If they end, as they surely will do sometime soon, CPO prices will fall lower.
If you would like a copy of this presentation, please
email me at Jfry@Lmc.co.uk
Acknowledgements: EU, Jacobsen, MPOB, OECD, Oil World, UFOP and USITC for data