Chapter 8 – Consumer Price Index
Consumer Price Index The Consumer Price Index measures the change in prices for a fixed market basket of goods and services over time. This important economic statistic is the principal means that a country uses to measure inflation, in the case of rising prices, or deflation, if prices are decreasing. In order to convert prices into index numbers, the prices or other relatives are weighted. While conducting the budget enquiry, the amount spent on each item by an average family is decided and that constitute the weights. Because consumption pattern and life styles of people change over time, it is also necessary to conduct a new Household Income and Expenditure Survey to determine the new baskets of various items of expenditure and weights thereof. The CPI is then based on the new ground realities. In the Marshall Islands, the CPI was developed in 1977 by the then Office of Planning and Statistics of the Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands in Saipan. Although the RMI continued to rely upon this CPI, (which was only for the price levels in Majuro), the methodology utilized for deciding various items of consumptions and services and assigning them weights was questionable when they were not based on formal survey. In this background, ultimately a proper Household Income and Expenditure Survey with representation to all classes and covering all areas on random basis, was carried out. Survey Overview: Over a 2-month period from April to May 2002, the Office of Planning and Statistics, which was renamed the Economic Policy, Planning and Statistics Office (EPPSO), of the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), conducted a Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) from April 1 until mid-May. The staff selected four sample areas of Majuro, Ebeye, Jaluit and Likiep. The selection of these sample areas was judgmental and was based on choosing the largest population centers (Majuro and Ebeye) and then two other areas that were logistically feasible to reach in conducting the survey and were in the middle of the islands that were ranked by population. This survey used two types of survey methods to gather data. For the more expensive and less frequently purchased items, such as major appliances, electronic goods, new and used vehicles, etc., a pre-printed, survey questionnaire was completed by an interviewer. For those items which are more frequently purchased, such as food, tobacco, drinks, etc., the household respondent was given a diary to record all purchases during a one-week period. Household Sample: A total sample size of 700 in all four areas was used for the questionnaire portion of the survey. Remarkably, a total of 657 households agreed to participate. For any country getting such a high participation rate is an enviable achievement. For the diary portion of the survey, 355 households participated. Selection of the Item Sample: In the summer of 2002, staff members of the U.S. Bureau of the Census International Program’s Center processed the RMI’s HIES data. These items and expenditures were arrayed using the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI classification system as a frame of reference. Then, using a statistical technique called “Probability Proportionate to Size”, a new item sample was selected.
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Using the PPS technique to select the item sample ensured that those items with the highest monthly household expenditures were selected in the sample. The sample included a total of 61 items compared in the revised CPI. Expanding the Major Groups: Using the BLS Classification System as a frame of reference allowed the EPPSO to expand the number of groups included in the RMI’s CPI. Instead of having four major groups, the revised CPI now has 9 major groups. Having more groups allows the users to understand better which groups are responsible for the increases/decreases of the CPI. In the previous CPI, for example, alcoholic beverages were a part of the Food Group. Now, it is one of the 5 new groups. The others are: Housing, Utilities and Appliances, Medical Care, Education and Communication and Other Goods and Services. Expansion of the Outlet Sample: The previous CPI collected price data from 4 different outlets. In the revised CPI, the number of retail outlets has been expanded by more than ten-fold and the outlet sample now consists of 46 different retail outlets. These are more diversified and geographically dispersed throughout Majuro. This substantially larger outlet sample ensures that the EPPSO collects retail price data from a wide variety of outlets. Data Collection and Price Review Manual: The EPPSO has made another enhancement to the CPI by increasing the data collection training and by formalizing this vital aspect of price collection by developing a Data Collection Manual. This new manual covers virtually all aspects of price collection ranging from initiating the retail outlet to the rules for selecting a retail item and re-pricing. This new manual will improve data collection quality because it will provide guidance to the data collectors in handling almost any type of re-pricing situation. Linking the Old and New CPIs: In the 1st Quarter of 2003, data collectors collected price data for both the old and revised CPIs and the two indexes were “spliced” together at that point. In order for two indexes to be linked together, there must be at least one period where prices are collected for both the old and the new indexes. Beginning in the 2nd Quarter 2003, the EPPSO collected price data for only the items in the revised CPI. From the 4th Quarter 2002 to the 1st Quarter 2003, the price change was based on the previous CPI; from the 1st to the 2nd Quarters 2003, the price movement reflected the change in prices for revised CPI. But it may be kept in mind that the current CPI is reflective of the price levels in Majuro only. Efforts are being made to include price levels from other areas of the RM as well. Changing the Base Period: Another change in the CPI was rebasing it from 1882 = 100 to the 1st Quarter 2003 = 100. This is a mathematical change in the CPI but the more recent base period will make the CPI easier for users to understand. It may be clarified that the price levels under the CPI base 2003 as presented in the tables under this chapter is based on the prices in Majuro only and does not reflect changes in prices levels in other areas of the RMI.
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Table 8.1 Items Taken for Price Collection with Weights Item Number Item Code 100000 110000 101000 101001 101002 101003 101005 102001 102003 103000 103001 103003 105002 106001 106002 106003 106004 107001 107002 107007 107008 108001 109000 109002 109004 111000 111099 113000 113002 113003 113005 113006 113008 113011 114000 114002 116000 116007 116008 116099 117000 117001 117002 Item Title All Items Food Bread and Cereals Cereals (breakfast cereal, etc.) Rice Flour Ramen and other instant noodles Bread Donuts, pastries, etc. Meats, Poultry, Fish and Eggs Steak/beef (all types) Canned corned beef Canned luncheon meat (Spam, etc.) Whole chicken (frying chicken, etc.) Turkey and turkey parts Chicken legs Chicken breasts and all other parts Canned mackeral Canned tuna Fresh deep-sea fish (tuna, marlin, wahoo, etc.) Fresh reef fish Eggs Dairy Products Milk - evaporated Ice cream Fruits and Vegetables Other fruits and vegetables Non-alcoholic Beverages Coke Pepsi Colas- all others Coffee (instant coffee) Bottled water/spring water Drink mix (Kool-Aid, Luau mix, etc.) Sugar and Sweets Sugar Other Food at Home Chips- potato, banana, etc. Soy sauce Other food products Food Away from Home Plate lunch Restaurant meals Weight 100.00 35.91 9.83 0.48 4.86 1.43 1.04 1.15 0.87 16.37 0.73 2.42 1.42 2.02 1.41 3.11 0.42 0.70 2.05 0.52 0.67 0.91 1.07 0.53 0.54 0.52 0.52 4.22 0.79 0.59 0.75 0.91 0.58 0.60 1.04 1.04 1.79 0.47 0.75 0.57 1.07 0.40 0.67
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33
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Table 8.1 Items Taken for Price Collection with Weights (continuation) Item Number Item Code 200000 201000 201001 300000 301000 301002 302000 302001 303001 303002 306000 306004 306005 306006 306011 308000 308003 400000 401000 401099 402001 402099 403001 403002 404002 500000 501000 502001 506001 600000 602000 602001 603001 700000 701000 701001 701002 701004 701006 800000 802000 802002 805000 805001 900000 904000 904001 905000 905099 Item Title Alcoholic Beverages Alcoholic Beverages Beer Housing, Utilities and Major Appliances Housing Rent Utilities Kerosene Water (piped or delivered) Electricity Major Appliances Refrigerator Freezer Washing machine Air conditioner Tools, Hardware, Outdoor Equipment Fishing Gear Apparel Apparel Other men's and boys' clothing Shirts (men's or women's) Other women's and girls' clothing Sandals Zorries Diapers (disposable) Transportation Transportation Gasoline (for car, truck or boat) Off-island travel expenditures (airfares) Medical Care Medical Care Hospital visits Health insurance Recreation Video and Audio Goods and Services Television Video player Radio Video rentals Education and Communication Education Tuition Communication Telephone Other Goods and Services Tobacco Products Cigarettes Other Personal Goods Toilet paper Weight 1.68 1.68 1.68 17.07 1.43 1.43 12.11 1.61 1.87 8.63 3.07 0.63 0.60 0.73 1.11 0.46 0.46 4.33 4.33 0.94 0.55 0.54 0.52 0.56 1.22 13.73 13.73 3.78 9.95 2.23 2.23 1.60 0.62 2.32 2.32 0.89 0.28 0.36 0.79 6.56 5.40 5.40 1.16 1.16 16.17 11.60 11.60 4.57 4.57
34
35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
44 45 46 47 48 49
50 51
52 53
54 55 56 57
58 59
60 61
Source: EPPSO, Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2002
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Table 8.2 Average Monthly Household Expenditure by Nine Major Groups: 2002 Groups Food Alcoholic Beverages Housing, Utilities and Major Appliances Apparel Transportation Medical Care Recreation Education and Communication Other Goods and Services Note: Data based on survey of 657 households on Majuro, Ebeye, Jabor and Likiep Source: Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2002 Average $ 512.12 20.57 225.15 56.99 194.04 27.55 33.14 91.37 494.84 Percent 30.93 1.24 13.60 3.44 11.72 1.66 2.00 5.52 29.89
Fig 8.1 Percent Average Monthly Household Expenditure : 2002
Other Goods and Services 30%
Food 30%
Education and Communication 6% Alcoholic Beverages 1% Recreation 2% Medical Care 2% T ransportation 12% Apparel 3%
Housing, Utilities and Major Appliances 14%
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Table 8.3 Average Monthly Household Expenditure by Selected Food Items: 2002 Item Rice Chicken legs Canned corned beef Cola/soda Canned tuna Whole chicken (frying chicken, etc.) Beer Flour Turkey and turkey parts Bread Sugar Ramen and other instant noodles Eggs Coffee (instant coffee) Donuts, pastries, etc. Steak/beef (all types) Restaurant meals Ice cream Milk - evaporated Fresh deep-sea fish (tuna, marlin, wahoo, etc.) Chicken breasts and all other parts Plate lunch Bananas Milk - fresh Note: Data based on survey of 657 households on Majuro, Ebeye, Jabor and Likiep Source: Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2002 Expenditure (US$) 54.63 34.96 27.24 24.02 23.03 22.66 18.85 16.04 15.85 12.97 11.70 11.69 10.22 10.19 9.80 8.18 7.54 6.06 5.92 5.80 4.69 4.50 3.47 2.86
Table 8.4 Average Monthly Household Expenditure by Selected Household and Social Items: 2002 Items Loan payments (not for vehicle/boat) Funerals Church-related activities Tuition Remittances overseas (outgoing) Cigarettes Home construction/repair/maintenance Taxi or bus fare Traditional titles and activities Weddings Hospital visits Life insurance Video rentals Telephone Health insurance Medicine Note: Data based on survey of 657 households on Majuro, Ebeye, Jabor and Likiep Source: Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2002 Expenditure (US$) 166.01 47.07 39.87 37.33 35.75 33.03 26.48 16.67 12.30 12.14 10.84 9.95 8.19 8.01 4.23 1.99
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Table 8.5 RMI Consumer Price Index: 2003 and 2004 (First & Second Quarters) FIRST QUARTER 2003 = 100 ALL GROUPS REVISED CPI BASE WEIGHTS Q1 2003 Q2 2003 Q3 2003 Q4 2003 Q1 2004 Q2 2004 % CHANGE 100.00 100.00 100.50 100.99 101.97 102.22 102.46 0.23 35.91 100.00 102.27 103.10 105.72 106.30 106.64 0.32 1.68 100.00 100.00 103.79 101.52 102.27 102.27 0.00 17.07 100.00 99.30 99.24 98.97 99.02 99.44 0.42 4.33 100.00 99.70 102.08 102.75 105.73 103.71 -1.91 13.73 100.00 98.08 97.65 97.78 97.95 99.19 1.27 2.23 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 0.00 2.32 100.00 100.15 100.10 99.08 100.93 100.93 0.00 6.56 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 0.00 16.17 100.00 100.50 101.08 101.69 100.36 100.36 0.00 Food Alcoholic Beverages Housing and Utilities Apparel Transportation Medical Recreation Education & Communication Other Goods & Services
Source: Economic Policy, Planning and Statistics Office
Fi gure 8.2 Consume r Price Inde x: Q 1 2003 to Q 2 2004 103.00 102.50 102.00 101.50 101.00 100.50 100.00 99.50 99.00 98.50
101.97
102.22
102.46
Index
100.99 100.50 100.00
Q1 2003
Q2 2003
Q3 2003
Q4 2003
Q1 2004
Q2 2004
Q uarte rs/Ye ars
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