Conference Agenda

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					Conference Agenda.

09:00 -10:00 Registration

10:00-11:00 Opening session
Congress Hall, Lower Ground floor
Chair: Stephen Penneck, Director of Methodology, Office for National Statistics

10:05 Welcome address
      Karen Dunnell, National Statistician

10:15 Methodology, assessment and service delivery
      Richard Aldritt, UK Statistics Authority

10:35 Methodology and the GSS
      Stephen Penneck, Director of Methodology, Office for National Statistics


11:00-11:20 Refreshments and exhibits
Foyer and Congress Suites 1-4, Lower Ground floor


11:20 – 13:00 Syndicate Sessions 1 to 4

Session 1: Time series analysis
Room, Invision Suite 1 & 2, Second floor
Chair: Gary Brown, Office for National Statistics

11:20 How to handle an untimely administrative source - Do's and don'ts of
      forecasting
      Kevin Moore, Office for National Statistics.

11:50 Five minute break

11:55 Seasonal adjustment in a mass production environment
      Duncan Elliott, Office for National Statistics
   .
12:25 Five minute break

12:30 An evaluation of X-13A-S on monetary and financial data
      Fida Hussain, Bank of England


Session 2: Dissemination
Room, Congress Hall, Lower Ground floor
Chair: Graham Jenkinson, Office for National Statistics

11:20 Data sharing: The UK’s Economic and Social Data Service
      Louise Corti and Sharon Bolton, Economic and Social Data Service
11:50 Five minute break

11:55 New procedures governing the release of microdata derived from social
      surveys
      Carole Abrahams and Martin Stringfellow, Office for National Statistics
   .
12:25 Five minute break

12:30 Data visualisation
      Alan Smith, Office for National Statistics


Session 3: Small area estimation
Room, Meeting Rooms 1 & 2, Fifth floor
Chair: Martin Brand, Office for National Statistics

11:20 Model-based local authority estimation of all labour market states
      Kevin McGrath, Denise Silva, Office for National Statistics and Ayoub Saei,
      Health Protection Agency,

11:50 Five minute break

11:55 Bayesian statistics for small area estimation
      V. Gomez-Rubio, N. Best, S. Richardson, Imperial College and Philip Clarke,
      Office for National Statistics

12:25 Five minute break

12:30 A local area model for emigration
      Dick Heasman, Office for National Statistics


Session 4: Quality
Room, Council Chamber, Fifth floor
Chair: Luned Jones, Welsh Assembly Government

11:20 Progress on the statistical disclosure control strategy for the 2011 UK
      Census
      Caroline Young and Keith Spicer, Office for National Statistics

11:50 Five minute break

11:55 The Methodology Consultancy Service
      Simon Compton and Ceri Underwood, Office for National Statistics

12:25 Five minute break

12:30 Process quality in the Office for National Statistics
       Rachael Viles, Sarah Green and Rachel Skentelbery, Office for National
       Statistics


13:00 - 14:00 Lunch and exhibits
Foyer and Congress Suites 1-4, Lower Ground floor


14:00 – 15:04 Syndicate Sessions 5 to 8

Session 5: Measurement of output and productivity of public services
Room, Meeting rooms 1 & 2, Fifth floor
Chair: Emily Carless, Office for National Statistics

14:00 Developing a quality-adjusted output measure for the Scottish education
      system
      Joanne Briggs, Scottish Government

14:30 Five minute break

14:35 Using fraud and error data as a quality measure of the benefits system
      Ceri Holdsworth, Office for National Statistics
   .
15:05 Five minute break

15:10 From Holt-Winters to X12-ARIMA: measuring the impact on forecasting
      error on quarterly estimates of public sector output
      Daniel Ayoubkhani, Office for National Statistics


Session 6: Estimation and Analysis
Room, Council Chamber, Fifth floor
Chair: Barbara Noble, Department of Transport

14:00 Matching UK road traffic accidents as recorded by the police with those
      from hospital records
      Kevin McGrath, Office for National Statistics and Matthew Tranter,
      Department for Transport

14:30 Five minute break

14:35 Estimating the male/female employment splits in BRES using additional
      data sources
      Hannah Finselbach, Salah Merad and Kevin Moore, Office for National
      Statistics
   .
15:05 Five minute break

15:10 Using the Offenders Index to investigate patterns of offending
       Brian Francis and Keith Soothill, Lancaster University


Session 7: Demography
Room, Congress Hall, Lower Ground floor
Chair: Peter Fullerton, Office for National Statistics

14:00 Sub-national population projections for Wales
      Emma Arnell-Smith, Welsh Assembly Government

14:30 Five minute break

14:35 The proportion of marriages ending in divorce
      Ben Wilson and Steve Smallwood, Office for National Statistics

15:05 Five minute break

15:10 Understanding and measuring uncertainty associated with the mid-year
      population estimates
      Joanne Clements and Alison Whitworth, Office for National Statistics


Session 8: Survey methods
Room, Invision Suite, Second floor
Chair: Caron Walker, Office for National Statistics

14:00 Telephone data entry – enhancing the system
      Mark Peck and Gemma Hamilton, Office for National Statistics

14:30 Five minute break

14:35 Coverage assessment and adjustment in the 2011 UK Census
      Owen Abbott, Office for National Statistics

15:05 Five minute break

15:10 Ethnic minorities and non-response in the Millennium Cohort Study
      Shirley Dex, Institute of Education


15:40 – 16:00 Refreshments and exhibits
Rooms: Foyer and Congress Suites 1-4, Lower Ground floor


16:00-17:00 Closing session: Trust in official statistics
Congress Hall, Lower Ground floor
Chair: Frank Nolan, Office for National Statistics

16:00 Panel discussion
      John Pullinger, House of Commons Library
      Paul Wiles, Head of Government Social Research Service
      Mary Sweetland, National Health Service, Scotland
      Other panellists to be confirmed

16:55 Closing comments from Chair


17:00 Close