Dropout Powerpoint by bruceifac

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									          Everyone
         Graduates!
What Your School and Community Can Do to
Prevent Dropout and Secure Success for All
                  Youth
                            Nettie Legters
                Center for Social Organization of Schools
                        Johns Hopkins University
      Prepared for the National High School Center Summer Institute
                       Washington, DC, June 2008
UNDERSTAND OUR
  CHALLENGE
How Many Drop Out?
 Nationwide, 1.2 million students drop out of high
  school each year
 7,000/day, 12 million over the next decade
 Every nine seconds in America, a student becomes
  a dropout
                                                           Total Number of Students and Graduates
                                    1s
                                       tG
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                                  2n              (1
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                                                                    2,500,000
                                                                                3,000,000
                                                                                            3,500,000
                                                                                                        4,000,000
                                                                                                                    4,500,000
                                            ra         3-
                                              de          19
                                                             94
                                  3r
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                                                  (1
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                                  5t              (1         96
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                                        G               6-
                                           ra             19
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                                                  (1         97
                                  6t
                                     h               99         )
                                        G




Low Grades
                                           ra           7-
                                              de          19
                                                  (1         98
                                  7t
                                     h               99         )
                                        G               8-
                                           ra             19
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                                                  (1         99
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                                                  (2         00
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                                                                                                                                                          School Students




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                Grade

Middle Grades
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High Grades




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                                                                                                                                Class of 2005 Grade Enrollments and Graduates for the Nation's Public




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                                                       4-
                                                          20
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Graduates
                            Class of 2006 Estimated On-Time Cohort Enrollments by Grade for Tennessee


                   80,000
Total Enrollment




                   70,000


                   60,000


                   50,000
                               n



                                               d
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                                                          4th

                                                                 5th

                                                                       6th

                                                                             7th

                                                                                   8th

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                                                                Estimated On-Time Grade
                              Class of 2006 Estimated On-Time Cohort Enrollments by Grade for Nashville


                     8,000
Total Enrollment




                     7,000

                     6,000

                     5,000

                     4,000

                     3,000
                               n



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                                                          4th

                                                                 5th

                                                                       6th

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                                                                Estimated On-Time Grade
Where Do They Drop Out?
 Half attended achievement gap high schools across
  the country

 Half attended chronically low performing high schools
  located
    In urban areas in Northeast, Midwest and West
    In all areas throughout the South and Southeast
Where Did All The Freshmen Go?
                 12th
               Graders      197

            11th            259
          Graders

      10th                  327
    Graders

  9th                       484
Graders
      Number of 9th Graders in 1996/97 = 669
    % promoted to 12th grade in four years = 29%
 The Nation’s Dropout Crisis is Concentrated in 15% of its High Schools
     in Which Every Year 40% or More of Students Fail to Graduate



         Number of High Schools Nationally by Different Levels of Promoting Power (Class of 2006)


6,000

                                                                                                    5,003
5,000


4,000

                                                                           2,986
3,000                                                2,704

           1,999
                                1,851
2,000


1,000


   0
        60% or below           61-70%                71-80%               81-89%             90% or above
                                                Promoting Power
                                Percentage of Minority Students Attending Schools with Weak Promoting Power


                               70%                   64%
Percentage of Race/Ethnicity




                               60%                                                 54%
                               50%                                                                             47%
                                        40%
                                              35%
           Group




                               40%                                  33%
                               30%
                                                                          22%
                               20%
                                                                                                  8%
                               10%                                                                      5%

                               0%
                                         African American                 Latino                       White
                                                                      Race/Ethnicity

                                                            Nation Tennessee Nashville-Davidson
                                Percentage of Students Eligible for Free or Reduced-Price Lunch in Non-Weak Promoting
                                               Power Schools and Schools with Weak Promoting Power


                         100%
Percentage of Students




                         80%
                                                                                         59%
                         60%                           54%                                                                    53%

                                                                             36%
                         40%                                                                                     32%
                                        28%

                         20%

                          0%
                                              Nation                            Tennessee                       Nashville-Davidson

                           Percentage of students in non-weak promoting power schools eligible for free or reduced-price lunch 2005-06
                           Percentage of students in weak promoting power schools eligible for free or reduced-price lunch 2005-06
Why Do Students Drop Out?
    Bright But Bored
    Life Event
    Academic Failure
    Multi-year Process of Disengagement
    Most Have High Aspirations and Regret Dropping
     Out

 Read:   The Silent Epidemic
         Dropouts in America
Why Do Schools Drop Out Students?
  The Greatest Proximate Cause is that there is
   a fundamental Miss-Match between the
   Number of Students in Need of Academic and
   Social Supports and the Human Resources
   and Know How Available to Help
The Number of Students in need of mentors, tutors, attendance monitoring, and
  homework support in High Poverty Secondary Schools can be in the 100’s

                  Percentages of freshmen with various characteristics,
                               by high school, 1999-2000

Percent   100%


          80%


          60%


          40%


          20%


           0%

                        First-time freshmen                               Magnet or vocational schools



                        First-time, no more than 14 years old

                        First-time, on-age, attendance of at least 80% in 8th grade

                        First-time, on-age, at least 80% attendance, 7th+ in math and
                        reading
TAKE ACTION
 Identify Dropouts and Develop Early Warning
  Systems
 Implement System of Comprehensive, Targeted,
  and Intensive Interventions in Schools and Across
  Your Community
 States and Districts Serve as Brokers of Diverse
  Portfolio of High Schools and Coordinated
  Interventions
 Advocate for Federal and State Investments
IDENTIFY DROPOUTS
 Are Easily Identifiable Using Data Routinely Collected
  by Schools
 Can be Identified at Key Junctures of Secondary
  School When Their Odds for Success are About to
  Take a Turn for the Worse
 Often Persist in School for a Long Time before
  Dropping Out, Despite Years of Struggles
Attendance, Behavior and Course Failure in the Secondary
 Grades are Highly Predictive of High School Graduation

    Graduation Outcomes for Students with 6th Grade
            Off-Track Indicators-Philadelphia

100%
 80%
 60%
 40%
 20%
  0%
       Attend <    Fail Math Fail English Suspended
        80%

 Does Not Graduate               Graduates On Time
 Graduates with One Extra Year
In High Poverty School Districts, 75% of Eventual Dropouts
      Can be Identified between the 6th and 9th Grade



    Percent of Dropouts That Can Be
   Identified between the 6th and 9th
      grade-Boston Class of 2003
                                      End of 6th Grade

            24%                       End of 9th Grade
                       43%
                                      No Off Track
            32%                       Indicator 6th-9th
                                      Grade
  Using Early Warning Systems and On and Off Track
Indicators We Can Identify Which Students have Great
    Odds of Dropping Out Long Before They Do So
Comprehensive Prevention Model
   Type of Intervention   Portion of Failure to   Resource Needs
                          Succeed Students
                          Addressed

   School-wide            65-75%                  Maybe able to Re-
   Preventative                                   Organizes Existing
                                                  resources

   Targeted               15-25%                  Additional
                                                  Resources Typically
                                                  Needed

   Intensive              5-10%                   Partners with
                                                  Resources Needed
High School Reform Components
   Personalized School Organization
        Small Learning Communities, Ninth Grade Academy, Career Academies,
         Teams, Common Planning Time, Extended Class Periods
   Curriculum/Instruction
        Common Core College Preparatory Curriculum
        Individualized Learning Plans
        Double & Triple Dose Math & English
        Active Instruction, Integrated Career Themes
        Freshman Seminar, Senior Seminar
        Acceleration Opportunities (AP, IB, Early College)
   Student and Staff Support
        Mentors, Tutors, Counseling, Wrap-Around Services
        Leadership Development
        Planning & Coaching
        Community Engagement and Partnerships
School Disengagement Precedes Involvement with the Juvenile Justice
                 System and Teenage Pregnancy




 Males Incarcerated in High            Females Who Give Birth in
   School-Philadelphia                  High School-Philadelphia




                     No 6th Grade
            33%
                     Indicator
                                                          No 6th Grade
                                                33%       Indicator
                     6th Grade Off
    67%                                                   6th Grade Off
                     Track Indicator
                                          67%             Track Indicator
Currently in Large Cities the Social Safety Net is Not Working


      Dropout and Graduation Rates for Philadelphia
      Students Involved with Social Service Agencies-
                      Class of 2000

  100%
   80%
   60%                                                Graduate
   40%                                                Dropout
   20%
    0%
         Teengage Aduse and Foster Care   Juvenile
         Pregnancy Neglect                 Justice
                              FY 2007 ED Appropriations:
                               The Missing Middle Chart

$20,000,000,000

$18,000,000,000
                                                                       Small Learning Communities
$16,000,000,000                                                        Pell
                                                                       SEOG
$14,000,000,000
                                                                       LEAP
$12,000,000,000                                                        Federal Work Study
                                                                       Striving Readers
$10,000,000,000
                                                                       TRIO
 $8,000,000,000                                                        GEAR-UP
                                                                       Perkins
 $6,000,000,000
                                                                       Head Start
 $4,000,000,000                                                        Reading First
                                                                       Title I
 $2,000,000,000

            $0
                  PreK-6   Grades 7-9   Grades 10-12   Postsecondary
Important State and Federal Roles in
Transforming Secondary Education
 Graduation Promise Act-(sufficiently funded to
    transform all low performing high schools)
   Success in the Middle Bill
   Adolescent Literacy
   Highly Effective Teacher Fund
   Data Systems and Graduation Rate Accountability-
    Common and Accurate Measure, Meaningful Growth
    Goals, Disaggregated, Equal to Test Scores
   Secondary Innovations Bill
WHAT’S THE PRIZE IF WE
        ACT?
Social and Economic Benefits
 Our nation can recoup 45 billion dollars in lost tax
  revenues, health care expenditures, and social
  service outlays if we cut the number of high school
  dropouts in half (Levin et. al, 2007)

 Pacific Northwest could see a $8 billion boost in its
  economy by cutting # of dropouts in half (Alliance for
  Excellent Education)
Benton Harbor Freshmen
Bring Home the Gold
The Center for Social Organization of Schools
         Johns Hopkins University
        3003 N. Charles St., Ste. 200
            Baltimore, MD 21218
                410-516-8800
             www.csos.jhu.edu

								
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