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					                                                     The BIG PICTure

                                                     severe drought
              Our current experience of very dry conditions
for many years now, and over so much of eastern Australia, may be
another drought – or it may be something more ominous …


As the drought continued, prayer                     Periodic droughts are an enduring feature of life    parts of eastern and southern Australia, with          city populations are almost totally disconnected
                                                     in Australia. Over the 100 years between 1895        rainfall deficits remaining widespread over            from the drought experiences of rural people –
was abandoned and more devilish
                                                     and 1995 we have experienced nine periods            Tasmania, Victoria, South Australia, NSW and           those on farms, living in small towns and owning
steps adopted. Finally soldiers                      of serious drought. These periods have lasted        southern Queensland. It was the driest year on         or working in businesses in provincial centres.
with rifles marched to the tops                      from two to eight years. In each case drought        record (since 1900) across parts of the south,
                                                                                                                                                                 Drought effects do show up in the national
                                                     was experienced in at least two states and on        most notably in northern and eastern Tasmania,
of the hills and began shooting                                                                                                                                  accounts. The 1982–83 drought was the most
                                                     one occasion (1918–20) all states experienced        northeast Victoria and adjacent parts of
at passing clouds.                                   drought conditions. Overall, serious drought has     southern NSW and the ACT.2 While some areas
                                                                                                                                                                 severe one experienced in the 20th century. It
                                                     been experienced somewhere in Australia in 39                                                               cost nearly $5 billion in reduced production
Laurie Lee, Cider with Rosie, Longman’s Publishing                                                        are now experiencing their fourth or fifth year
                                                     of these 100 years.1                                                                                        and insurance claims with a 40% drop in
Group, London and New York, 1959                                                                          of drought conditions, people on the land are
                                                                                                                                                                 cereal grain, cotton and sugar production,
                                                     Because of the regular cyclical occurrence of        aware that dry conditions have prevailed for up
                                                                                                                                                                 the destruction of millions of livestock and
                                                     drought, Australian farming practices have           to nine years in some places.
                                                                                                                                                                 thousands of tonnes of topsoil blown away in
                                                     evolved so that, in good years, farmers try to
                                                                                                          As drought conditions extend across a region,          dust storms.3 Overall, gross domestic product
                                                     make provision for drought by storing surplus
                                                                                                          farmers defer sowing crops. They substantially         (GDP) was reduced by 0.75%, with a 9%
                                                     fodder, silage and grain feeds. Security of water
                                                                                                          reduce livestock numbers by either selling             reduction in rural exports.4
                                                     supply is a critical buffer to the immediate
                                                                                                          animals for slaughter or sending them to
                                                     impacts of drought. During the last century,                                                                In provincial cities and rural townships,
                                                                                                          agistment. Animals that do remain on drought-
                                                     all Australian governments carried out major                                                                the effects of drought are immediate and
                                                                                                          affected properties have to be hand fed, either
                                                     infrastructure projects aimed at ’drought-                                                                  endure for several years after a drought
                                                     proofing’ both rural areas and capital cities        with feed that has been stored in good years
                                                                                                                                                                 has broken with good seasonal rainfall.
                                                     through the construction, and strategic siting, of   or with purchased feed. This is a very expensive
                                                                                                          way for farmers to operate.                            A recent business and industry survey reported
                                                     large water storages across the mainland.
                                                                                                                                                                 that, overall, 59% of respondents considered
                                                     At the present time a significant proportion         The serious impacTs                                    that the drought was having a negative
                                                     of Australia is experiencing a prolonged dry         of droughT                                             impact upon their business. The overwhelming
                                                     period and the Federal Government has officially     Prolonged drought can lead to social and local         impact was a decline in revenues for 77% of
                                                     declared this period a drought.                      industry decline and it can damage aquatic             businesses.5
                                                     December rainfall totals for 2006 were generally     ecosystems. The depth of these direct impacts is
                                                     well below average across the drought-affected       not always felt in the big cities. Indeed our large


                                                                                                                                                                Victorian Women’s Trust - Our Water Mark            41
                                                    The BIG PICTure

                                                    severe drought

     When a drought is officially declared,         •	 maintain and protect Australia’s agricultural      gLoBaL WarmiNg                                         rises in average daily temperatures by the end
     governments respond by activating drought-        and environmental resource base during                                                                    of this century in the range of between 2.0°C
                                                                                                          If global warming continues and ambient
     relief schemes for farmers and rural              periods of extreme climate stress; and                                                                    and 4.5°C, with a 3.0°C rise a strong possibility.
                                                                                                          temperatures are reset somewhere between
     communities. These have now evolved to         •	 ensure early recovery of agricultural and                                                                 Furthermore, it states that the average rise in
                                                                                                          0.54°C and 1.24°C, the annual surface-water
     the point where responses are in accord           rural industries consistent with long-term                                                                global temperatures by the end of the century
                                                                                                          runoff will be reset accordingly. Predictions for
     with Australia’s National drought policy.6        sustainable levels.                                                                                       is unlikely to be less than 1.5°C.8 This increase
                                                                                                          Victoria are alarming. By 2030 there will be a
     The objectives of this policy are to:                                                                                                                       in average temperatures, and the consequent
                                                    We need to ask whether the dry conditions             deficit in surface-water runoff in 28 of the 29
     •	 encourage primary producers and other                                                                                                                    shift in local climate conditions, will become
                                                    being experienced in much of Australia                surface-water management areas across the
       sections of rural Australia to adopt self-                                                                                                                an overlay, accentuating any natural change
                                                    simply represent a prolonged severe                   state of Victoria.7 unfortunately, this sort of
       reliant approaches to managing risks                                                                                                                      in our weather pattern that may take place
                                                    drought, or whether they point to a                   analysis is not available for all of the major river
       stemming from climatic variability                                                                                                                        concurrently.
                                                    fundamental change in our weather                     systems of southern Australia.
                                                    patterns; a change that will have major               The 2007 report of the Inter-governmental Panel
                                                    impacts upon the availability of fresh                on Climate Change8 (IPCC) forecasts
                                                    water in this country.




                                                                    Grafton                                                                                      figure 1. areas in NsW declared for
                                                                                                                                                     Grafton
                                                                                                                                                                 drought assistance
                                    Bourke                                                                   Bourke
                                                                                                                                                                 In the space of seven years, drought conditions
                                                               Tamworth
                                                                                                                                                                 have spread across Australia’s most populous
                                                                                                                                                                 state. even when there was some good seasonal
                   Broken hill                                                              Broken hill                                                          rainfall (as in 2005), almost the whole state was
                                                    Orange                                                                                                       drought-declared within the next year.
                                                                                                                                Orange
                                                               Sydney                                                                                            Source: NSW Department of Primary Industry,
                   Wentworth                                                                 Wentworth                                      Sydney
                                                                                                                                                                 Resource information – monthly maps,
                                                    Goulburn
                                                                                                                                                                 <www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/aboutus/resources/maps>.




                        January 2000                                                     January 2007



42     Victorian Women’s Trust - Our Water Mark
                                                                                  The BIG PICTure

                                                                                  severe drought


                                                                                                                                                                              1 800 000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     100
                         10 000 000                                                                                                                                                 1 800 000
                                                                                                               100
                           10 000 000
                                                                                                              100
                                                                                                                                                                              1 600 000                                                              90 100
                          9 000 000                                                                            90
                            9 000 000                                                                                                                                               1 600 000                                                             90
VOluMe IN sTOrAge (Ml)




                                                                                                                                                     VOluMe IN sTOrAge (Ml)
                                                                                                              90                                                              1 400 000                                                              80
                          8 000 000                                                                            80
                            8 000 000                                                                         80                                                                    1 400 000                                                             80                  1996/1997
                                                                                                                                         1996/1997                            1 200 000                                                              70




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           PerCeNT Full (%)
                                                                                                                     PerCeNT Full (%)
                         7 000 000                                                                                                      1996/1997                                                                                                                             1997/1998
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                1996/1997
                           7 000 000                                                                           70                        1997/1998
                                                                                                              70                                                                    1 200 000                                                             70
                                                                                                                                        1997/1998                                                                                                    60                       1998/1999
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                1997/1998
                          6 000 000                                                                            60                        1998/1999                            1 000 000
                            6 000 000                                                                         60                        1998/1999                                                                                                         60                  1999/2000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                1998/1999
                                                                                                                                         1999/2000                                 1 000 000                                                         50
                         5 000 000                                                                             50                       1999/2000                              800 000                                                                                        2000/2001
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                1999/2000
                           5 000 000                                                                          50                                                                                                                                          50
                                                                                                                                         2000/2001
                                                                                                                                        2000/2001                                   800 000                                                          40                       2001/2002
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2000/2001
                         4 000 000                                                                             40                        2001/2002
                           4 000 000                                                                          40                        2001/2002                              600 000                                                                    40                    2001/2002
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2002/2003
                          3 000 000                                                                            30                        2002/2003
                                                                                                                                        2002/2003
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     30
                            3 000 000                                                                         30                                                                    600 000                                                                                     2002/2003
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2003/2004
                                                                                                                                         2003/2004                             400 000                                                                    30
                                                                                                                                        2003/2004                                                                                                    20                         2003/2004
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2004/2005
                          2 000 000
                            2 000 000                                                                          20
                                                                                                              20                         2004/2005                                  400 000
                                                                                                                                        2004/2005                                                                                                         20                    2004/2005
                                                                                                                                                                               200 000                                                               10
                          1 000 000
                            1 000 000                                                                          10
                                                                                                              10                                                                    200 000                                                               10
                                  00                                                                          00                                                                     0                                                               0
                                        JUL
                                         JUL   AUG SEP
                                                AUG SEP   OCT NOV
                                                           OCT NOV   DEC
                                                                     DEC   JAN
                                                                           JAN   FEB
                                                                                 FEB   MAR APR
                                                                                       MAR APR   MAY
                                                                                                 MAY    JUN
                                                                                                       JUN                                                                                0
                                                                                                                                                                                         JUL      AUG SEP  OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN            0
                                                                                                                                                                                                JUL  AUG SEP  OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN

                                                                MONTH                                                                                                                                               MONTH




                           figure 2. Water storage levels for rural water supplies and melbourne’s water supplies,
                           1996–97 to 2004–05
                           The longer the period of drought, the less water there is entering storages. For Victorian rural and
                           metropolitan storages, as illustrated above, the volumes of surface water flowing into storages are
                           declining year by year.
                           Source: State Water Report: A statement of Victorian water resources, DSe, Melbourne, 2005.
                           <http://www.dse.vic.gov.au/DSe/>.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Victorian Women’s Trust - Our Water Mark                        43
                                                                  The BIG PICTure

                                                                  severe drought


                   10,000,000

                         9,000,000

                         8,000,000
     NuMBers OF PeOPle




                         7,000,000

                         6,000,000

                         5,000,000                                                                                 refereNces
                                                                                                             1.   Bureau of Meteorology, Drought trends,        6.   Department of Agriculture, Fisheries
                         4,000,000                                                                                BOM, Melbourne, <www.bom.gov.au/                   and Forestry, Exceptional circumstances
                                                                                                                  climate/drought/livedrought.shtml>.                handbook, DAFF, Canberra, 2006, <http://
                         3,000,000                                                                                                                                   www.daff.gov.au.
                                                                                                             2.   Bureau of Meteorology, Drought statement,
                         2,000,000                                                                                4 January, 2007, BOM, Melbourne, 2007.        7.   rN Jones & PJ Durack, Estimating the
                                                                                                                                                                     impacts of climate change on Victoria’s
                         1,000,000                                                                           3.   S Power, G Loughlin & A Clark, Drought in
                                                                                                                                                                     runoff using a hydrological sensitivity
                                                                                                                  Australia: impacts, mitigation, monitoring,
                                                                                                                                                                     model, CSIrO report to the Victorian
                                                                                                                  policy and prediction, Convegno Siccita.
                                     Stage 1    Stage 2         Stage 3   Stage 4     Stage 5                                                                        Greenhouse unit, DSe, Melbourne, 2005.
                                                                                                                  Cagliari-Villasimius, 2000, p. 2.
                                                    sTAge OF WATer resTrICTIONs                                                                                 8.   IPCC established by the World
                                                                                                             4.   Australian Bureau of Agricultural research
                                                                                                                                                                     Meteorological Organization (WMO) and
                                                                                                                  economics, Australian commodities
                                                                                                                                                                     united Nations environnment Programme
                                                                                                                  forecasts issues, no. 2, ABAre, Canberra,
                                                                                                                                                                     (uNeP), 4th assessment report – 2007:
      figure 3. Water restriction levels for australian cities and towns with a population                        1995.
                                                                                                                                                                     Mitigation of climate change, summary
      greater than 50 000                                                                                    5.   Victorian employers’ Chamber of Commerce           for policy makers, p. 25.
      At the end of December 2006, water restrictions applied in 28 out of 32 cities across Australia with        and Industry, December quarter 2006, VECCI
      a population greater than 50 000 people. A total of 15 602 000 people were on Stage 3 or Stage 4            survey: Droughts and interest rates drive  some other useful sources
      restrictions. This represents 71% of the Australian population.                                             a drop in business confidence, 29 January  •	 General information about Federal
      Source: Water Services Association of Australia, <https://www.wsaa.asn.au/download/2006/                    2007, p. 2.                                   Government drought assistance is available
      Dec22restrictions.doc>.                                                                                                                                   at <http://www.daff.gov.au/droughtassist>.



44                   Victorian Women’s Trust - Our Water Mark

				
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