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The above table is a summary of the "futures only" report.
Click here to view a summary of the "futures combined with options" report.
Following is a summary of the weekly "Supplemental Commitments of Traders Report" from the CFTC.
This report only covers twelve agricultural commodities and identifies the positions of the Commercial
Index Traders "CIT" that are reported in the regular report's large trader data.
The above tables are summaries of the current Commitments of Traders Report and the Supplemental
Report from the CFTC. Traders need more analysis than the above tables to make informed trading
decisions. Subscribe to Commitments of Traders .com to receive the information most traders want to
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Useful summary tables for quick review.
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WEEKLY COT COMMENTARY Charts of Supplemental Report
data
weekly EMail
6/12/09 4:00 pm eastern HOLIDAY
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CLICK HERE for a link to the upcoming WEB PAGE NOTE TO
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I try to post th
above linked
The large non commercial "large spec" traders OPEN TRADE COT Tables to
-the trend following managed futures- are driving this market, RECOMMENDATIONS: the web site
prior to 4 PM
not passive institutional investors (like last year.) Following are the open trade eastern on the
recommendations in this free release date.
Each week I email this free COT commentary with the following summary table of the data in the weekly commentary. The
"Supplemental COT Report." The following summary is last week's 6/2/09 summary. Subscribers should see commentary w
Commodity Index normally be
Timing .com (shortcut updated
www.cit1.com ) and Stock between 4:00
Index Timing .com 5:00 PM easte
(shortcut www.sit1.com ) on the release
for further date. The
recommendations. weekly charts
with the COT
data plotted a
OPEN FUTURES OPTION updated by 8
TRADE pm eastern on
RECOMMENDATION: the release da
HOLD the DECEMBER 500
E-Mini S&P 500 put for $500
or better on 4/20/09. Risk is WEEKLY OPE
the net premium paid plus INTEREST
SUMMARIES
TABLE 1 commission.
ARE POSTED
ON SEPARAT
OPEN FUTURES OPTION PAGES. Click
TRADE on the above
RECOMMENDATION: links Futures
HOLD the JULY 2010 Only
SUGAR 11 cent put bought and
for 50 or better on 5/18/09. Combined
In sugar each 1.00 cent is Futures and
$1,120, so 50 points is 50 Options
times $11.20 or $560. Risk and
the net premium plus Supplemental
commission CIT to view the
summary table
Sugar option prices: of the current
release data.
Chart and
quote links
BarChart
Quotes, and daily
charts
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The above table is just from the current weekly Supplemental Report, it does not include commentary on the IntRates:
comparative information to evaluate the data. Commitments of Traders Energy:
Report: Index:
Subscribers to the web site can view tables that have a 12 week listing of the net totals for each FX:
commodity and the summary page totals with the range of the data for the last one year and three Click here for information Grains:
years. Subscribers also have access to charts of the data plotted over a chart of each commodity about SUBSCRIBING
Softs:
to Commitments of
and the totals plotted over a chart of the CRB. Viewing this comparative historical data is intended to Traders .com and Stock Meats:
give subscribers deeper insights into what is going on between the large trader groups in the Index Timing .com
markets. Contract
Specifications
Past commentary archive
Following are two charts from last week's Supplemental Report chart page.
See Futures
20090227 100 year chart of corn and
the new inflation plateau.
Trading Schoo
(See the Supplemental Report chart link Charts of Supplemental Report data at the top of this page.) for memos and
other links of
The first chart is last week's chart of front month soybeans with the supplemental data plotted, and interest
further down,, last week's chart of the CRB with the summary totals plotted.
See backgroun
page for a
In the following charts, possible
"trading
the net small spec is in yellow, strategy."
net large spec is in green
net commercial is in red,
and net commodity index trader in blue
Each color is plotted relative to it's own range over the time period
displayed. If in a given chart the largest net small spec was 500 and the
largest net commercial was 50,000, they would both be at the top of their
respective range and plotted at the highest point in their chart.
In the above table, in SOYBEANS, the net small spec (the non reported net totals) total is -20,513.
This total is the last data point plotted by the yellow line. The reported non commercial large trader
net in the above table of 88,884 is the last data point plotted by the green line. The last data point of
the net commercials, - 199,275, is the end of the red line. The last data point of the net index traders,
130,904, is the end of blue line.
CHART 1
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Following is a portion of the Supplemental Report 12 week summary for the Large non commercial
traders. You can see that the large (managed futures) trader totals have increased from the low of
the last year of net -9,551 to the current 88,884. The current 88,884 is a slight drop from the
previous week's total of 89,724. The large (managed futures) traders contributed to the increase in
the price of soybeans since the December lows by increasing their net long positions by almost
100,000 contracts
TABLE 2
Following is a portion of the Supplemental Report 12 week summary for the Commodity Index
Traders (CIT).
The CIT positions are generally the hedge positions created to support the Index Fund buying. You
can see that the index trader totals for SOYBEANS has increased from the low of the last year of net
89,731 to the current 130,904. The current 130,904 is a slight increase from the previous week's
total of 129,455. The portion of the up move since the December lows in soybeans was supported
by the index traders increasing their net positions (from 89,731 to 130,904) by almost 40,000
contracts.
TABLE 3
When I make the above comparative analysis, I conclude that the up move in SOYBEANS has
been driven more by the net increase of 100,000 contracts by the large non commercial
(managed futures) trader than by the 40,000 contract net increase by the Commodity Index
traders (Commodity Index Funds).
In the following chart of the CRB, I plot the summary totals of the Supplemental Report. For
example, the last data point for the green line large non commercial trader is the 383,901summary
total on table 1 above (green arrow.) the last data point for the blue line large commodity index
trader is the 1,103,675 summary total on table 1 above (also a green arrow.)
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CHART 2
If we look to table 2 above we can see that the total of the large non commercial traders (large spec
green line) has risen to 383,901 from a December low of -112,762, or a net accumulation of nearly
500,000 contracts net total in the listed Ag contracts covered by the Supplemental Report. Also, we
can see in the table 3 summary totals that the Commodity Index Trader net total blue line in Chart 2
has risen from the low of the last 12 months of 922,933 to 1,103,675, or an accumulation of 180,000
contracts.
SO JUST BASED ON THE AG MARKETS COVERED BY THE SUPPLEMENTAL COT REPORT
WE CAN CONCLUDE THAT THE GENERAL RISE IN THE MARKETS IS BEING DRIVEN BY THE
LARGE NON COMMERCIAL (LARGE SPEC MANAGED FUTURES) TRADER, NOT THE
INSTITUTIONAL ASSET ALLOCATION MONEY BEING DIRECTED AT COMMODITIES.
This IS what you would expect. Last year the gains of the commodity indexes attracted "investment"
money that really had no place gambling in commodities. They "thought" they were diversifying risk.
Since the 65% drop in the popular Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, those "investors" should
recognize that commodities are not place for investment dollars. Commodities are very speculative
and too volatile to consider as a portfolio balance vehicle.
The idea that you can diversify risk through MANAGED FUTURES has not been disproved. The
majority of managed futures programs tend towards trend following, and it is my view that the above
analysis supports the idea that managed futures are the dominant player in the commodity markets
driving the up trend.
This has been a long winded attempt to support the general idea I quickly get from Chart 2 above,
that the green line large trader non commercial is driving the market, not the blue line index
traders. So I can say "hot" money is driving the market, not buy and hold money, not money looking
for average returns of a group.
Unlike the passive investment of the commodity index funds, the managed futures generally trade
EACH market INDIVIDUALLY and have tested stop and reverse disciplines. When signs of a change
in trend develop, expect the markets to become dysfunctional as the managed futures traders race
to the exits and reverse. This is the traditional reason we watch the COT data.
Prior to 2007 and 2008, when the large managed futures traders traded on the turn in trend, this
news letter would recommend trading with the trend change when it was obvious that the trend
change would make a volatile turn from the mis balance of the short term large spec trader opposite
the longer term net commercial. In 2007 and 2008, trend turns down repeatedly failed to develop
because the commodity index accumulation continued without respect to the trends of the individual
markets.
I believe this is NO LONGER THE CASE. I believe the crush since the bubble burst has stopped the
mindless accumulation of commodity index funds. I believe the commodity index funds are no longer
dominating the commodity markets. Further, I believe money that MIGHT have considered going into
mindless accumulation of commodity index funds is now going into managed futures.
From now on I recommend you monitor individual markets for possible changes in trend when the
commercial hedgers have one year or more record net shorts or net longs. I believe we no longer
need to be afraid of trend reversals being stopped in their tracks from mindless waves of
accumulation from index investors.
My brief review of some of the major commodity trading advisors - managed futures - suggests they
have had a tremendously profitable May which brought their returns back to barely positive for the
year. They WERE having a difficult year because trends were uncertain. Now that they have
recovered, I expect they might be faster on the trigger to anticipate a trend turn in order to protect
their year to date returns.
My GUESS is at about a 4% reversal we should expect the large trader managed futures to jump out
of the trend and look to reverse. Consider individual commodity shorts on a 4% drop, with a stop
above the recent highs.
The short term trend high in gold has been 992. Today's fall through 950 into the 930s is the type of
action I think we need to watch for to suggest the large spec managed futures traders are starting to
exit that individual market. The high in crude has been 73.23. I think getting near down 4% to 69.50
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will bring a heavy wave of managed futures large spec trader selling. The high in soybeans has been
12.91. I think today's fall into the 12.30s could be the beginning of a heavy wave of managed futures
large spec trader selling.
Bottom line: I no longer view the index funds as the dominant player.
Good luck and good trading!
George
PS Would you like me to consult with your firm on these or other matters? Call me at 239-947-9131, or email me at
george@georgeslezak.com
Email george@georgeslezak.com for more information.
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Note: GREY BACKGROUND items on this commentary page do not change from week to week.
Comments and trade recommendations are selected from the markets that are highlighted with light green or light
red in the 12 week summary of net commercial positions and in the 12 week summary of net commercial positions
"with options" . The markets highlighted in light green or red are markets where the position of the net commercial
hedge traders are near the FIVE YEAR record net high or net low number of contracts. The strategy followed in
this web site is usually to then trade on a breakout of the two week high/low, in the direction of the net commercial
position, with stops at the opposite two week high/low.
The 12 week summary schedules also identify when the net commercial positions are near the high or low of their
ONE YEAR or THREE YEAR range. They are then highlighted in yellow and identified by I or III (or I- or III- ) in the
columns. I recommend that if you consider trades following the net commercials in markets where the net
commercial position is near the one year or three year range that you use a shorter term trading strategy with daily
monitoring.
My choice of markets for comment or trade recommendation is not suggested as the optimal choices. I am not
commenting, and I am not making trade recommendations on every market highlighted in the 12 week summaries.
All aspects of any trade recommendations contained in this report are subject to modification at any time.
FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE AND
THE RISK OF LOSS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED CAREFULLY BEFORE MAKING ANY TRADES. A STOP
LOSS MAY NOT LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE AMOUNT INTENDED. YOU SHOULD BE FOREWARNED THAT
SYSTEMS WHICH TRIGGER FREQUENT TRADING SIGNALS AS PART OF A DAY TRADING STRATEGY
CAN RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY
INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. ANY STATEMENT OF FACTS HEREIN CONTAINED ARE DERIVED
FROM SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE, BUT ARE NOT GUARANTEED AS TO ACCURACY, NOR DO
THEY PURPORT TO BE COMPLETE.
ANY REFERENCE TO PERFORMANCE IS INTENDED TO BE UNDERSTOOD AS STRICTLY THEORETICAL.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES REGARDING HYPOTHETICAL RESULTS
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE
DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO
ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS
SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE
GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING
DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY
ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO
WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING
LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.
THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE
IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR
IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN
ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY
INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS EXISTS IN FUTURES TRADING.
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All traders should read the CFTC CONSUMER ALERTS and the "COMMISSION ADVISORY" on trading systems.
This web page is sent each week to "subscribers" to the free email commentary. Subscribers
sign up to receive this email. This email is not sent to email "lists." If you wish to stop receiving
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email is sent by George Slezak from the Commitments of Traders .com web site which is
written in Bonita Springs, Florida. Telephone 888-311-3400.
Email george @georgeslezak.com for more information
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