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Our Changing Climate

VIEWS: 47 PAGES: 48

									How is California‟s climate changing and
what are the projections in this century?
Higher Temperature;
Precipitation Forecasts Mixed



              CALIFORNIA CLIMATE
              PROJECTIONS


              Temperatures:
              By end of century,
              temperatures between 3
              and 10.5 degrees F higher
              than today.


               Precipitation:
               Projections show little
               change in total annual
               precipitation; some
               models forecast slightly
               wetter winters; other
               models slightly dryer
               winters.
                                        Higher Temperatures and
                                            Health Impacts




Significant increase in   Over 100 days possible
the number of days        with temperatures >90
conducive to ground       deg F. by end of century
level ozone formation
But Don‟t Extreme Cold Days Have a Similar Impact on Mortality?



     No. They appear to have very different impacts.


     Researchers at the Harvard School of Public Health analyzed climate
     data and mortality records for the 6.5 million deaths that occurred
     in 50 U.S. cities from 1989 to 2000.



   During Cold Snaps Death Rates Increased by                                 1.59%
   During Heat Waves Death Rates Increased by                                  5.74%

           We seem better able to handle cold weather.


                                Source: Mercedes Medina-Ramón and Joel Schwartz; Temperature, Temperature
                                Extremes, and Mortality: A Study of Acclimatization and Effect Modification in 50
                                United States Cities; Occupational and Environmental Medicine. Published Online 28
                                June 2007.
                                           Other Impacts on California:
                                                Water Resources


Water Resources: Significant reduction
Sierra Nevada spring snow pack
forecasted (70 to 90% in high emissions
scenario; half that in lower emission
scenario)


    • California population expected to
    increase from 35 million to 55 million
    by 2050; water resources nearly fully
    utilized already


    • By end of the century, late spring
    stream flow could diminish by up to
    30%; agriculture particularly hard
    hit.


    • Potential reduction in hydropower
    (currently 15% of electricity
    generation)
                                   Other Impacts on California
                                            Agriculture


California produces 50% of all US fruits and vegetables; Increasing
temperatures can increase plant growth (to a point) but can also
diminish the quality of the produce.


    Industries likely to be impacted:


    • Wine Grapes
    • Fruits and Nuts
    • Milk Production


 • Warmer temperatures can increase crop
 damaging pests and pathogens


 • Water availability challenges
Why is it important that we act now to
reduce our greenhouse gas emissions?
The U.S. emits about 6.4 billion metric                             6.4 billion metric tons
tons of greenhouse gases annually, 25%                              CO2/yr
of the world’s total.



These greenhouse gases last a
long time…

       Carbon dioxide stays in the atmosphere
       for approximately 100 years, methane
       lasts about 12 years. Other greenhouse
       gases last even longer.



Warming begets more warming…

 As these gases continue to raise surface temperatures, they
 trigger the release of even greater quantities of carbon dioxide
 and methane that are currently trapped in frozen Arctic
 permafrost and tundra soils, further increasing temperatures.



A feedback mechanism ensues…

             …potentially causing “runaway global warming”.
There is a concern among scientists that we
may only have 10 to 20 years to significantly
reduce our emissions of greenhouse gases or
we could reach a “tipping point” where it will
be too late to slow global warming.
    This Map Made a Lasting Impression


Year 2095 Temperature Changes




                  (Temperature changes from the 1961-1990 average)



    What could I do to slow climate change?


            I did a lot of reading…
Households are Big Contributors to Climate Change



                     Of all U.S. greenhouse gas
                     emissions come from
                     households:


                     • Vehicles
                     • Home Heating
                     • Electricity
So how can each of us slow
global warming now?
                   Reduce our consumption of fossil fuels

  Because greenhouse gas emissions are tied very closely to our energy
  consumption, using less fossil fuel based energy puts fewer greenhouse gases
  into the atmosphere.

  This will help slow global warming.




                                           Mountaintop removal for coal mining
                                           near Rawl, West Virginia.


                                           50% of electricity in the United States
                                           is produced from coal.




(photo Kent Kessinger)
      There are many ways we can use less energy


We can drive smaller, more fuel efficient cars and use cars less often:




                          = 36 MPG = 6,500 pounds
                                               CO2 per year



                           = 23 MPG =          10,200 pounds
                                                CO2 per year




                           = 13 MPG = 18,059 pounds
                                       CO2 per year

                           (Estimates based on US average of 12,000 miles/year)
         We can make some simple substitutions

Replacing just 1 incandescent light bulb with 1 compact florescent
bulb saves about 150 pounds of carbon dioxide per year!




If every American household replaced just 5 high-use incandescent bulbs with
compact florescent lights we'd collectively save more than $8 billion each year in
energy costs and we would prevent the greenhouse gases equivalent to the
emissions from nearly 10 million cars.



                                                       Source: http://www.energystar.gov
                         Look for the Energy Star



In 2004 Americans using Energy Star products:


    • Avoided Emissions = 20 million cars
    • Energy Saved = 24 million homes

    • Saved $10 billion dollars




                                                    Source: http://www.energystar.gov
   5 things that require tons of energy and can produce
   tons of carbon dioxide


    Vehicles
    Heating Systems
    Clothes Dryers
    Dehumidifiers
    Refrigerators/Freezers




                                          A typical dehumidifier costs
Prioritize energy efficiency in these     $275/yr to operate and
items!                                    produces 2000 pounds of
                                          carbon dioxide per year.
                            Stop the Snacking!

  Some appliances and electronic
  devices are never truly “off”; they
  continue to draw electricity even when
  they aren‟t being used.


  Stop them from snacking on your
  electricity and wasting your money!


   Use a UL power strip and turn the
  power strip off when not in use.



Note
       Some electronics can
       use up to 30% of their
       electricity requirements
       even when they are
       “OFF”
               Small changes really add up



Replace your old refrigerator               Set your thermostat down a few
with a new Energy Star:                     degrees in the winter
  Annual savings:                           Annual savings:
    $90; 700 pounds CO2                          $135; 1400 pounds CO2


                                   Drive JUST 10 fewer miles per week
                                   Annual savings:
                                       $80; 520 pounds CO2


                                                 Reduce your garbage by 10%
 Wash clothes in cold water only
                                                 through greater recycling or reduced
 Annual savings:
                                                 packaging
     $70; 500 pounds CO2
                                                 Annual savings:
                                                      1200 pounds CO2


          Caulk and weather-strip around doors and
          windows
          Annual savings:
              $80; 650 pounds CO2
                                                     *These are mid-range estimates from
                                                     published sources; your savings may vary.
            More household ideas…



           Use a Clothesline: Electric
           dryers use tons of energy
           and produce tons of CO2!




                                         Consider
                                         replacing your
                                         vehicle with a
Shop Locally!                            more fuel
                                         efficient car (10
                                         MPG higher).
                                         Save 4300
                                         pounds of CO2
                                         and $660 per
                                         year.
Put your kids on the bus rather than drive them to school




   You‟ll save 3600 pounds of CO2 per year and $540 a year.


   The school bus: it takes our children away and returns them safely
   several hours later. WE LOVE IT!

                                          (Estimate based on 20 miles/day for 180 school days)
Use Biodiesel: put your oil furnace or boiler on a carbon diet


                                                           Use biodiesel (bioheat
                                                           B5) a mixture of 95% #2
                                                           fuel oil and 5% biofuels
                                                           (soybean based).


                                                           Requires no retrofitting of
                                                           existing equipment.


                                                           Expected to have ASTM
                                                           approval by Fall, 2007

                             Soybeans
                                                           Reduces CO2
                                                           emissions by 708
                                                           pounds per year.




                            Assumes 800 gallons fuel oil used per year. 4% reduction in CO2 for B5
We are promoting these and
other residential actions that
can be taken to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions
through the NH Carbon
Challenge.


The “Challenge” is for all
476,000 households in NH to
reduce their CO2 emissions by
10,000 pounds per year.
And after you take the Carbon Challenge you can tell everyone…
         Our take-home message…




Each of us must take steps to protect our Earth's climate.
Summarizing my carbon reductions since 2005

70 CFL Bulbs:               10,500 pounds CO2/yr


Driving 780 fewer miles
(15 miles/week) a year         500 pounds CO2/yr


Reduced oil consumption
by 200 gallons/year (more
wood heat)                    4,000 pounds CO2/yr


Lowered thermostat
a few degrees in winter       1,000 pounds CO2/yr


Switched to cold water
when washing clothes           500 pounds CO2/yr
________________________________________                 29%
TOTAL REDUCTION             16,500 pounds CO2/yr         less


And I‟m saving OVER $250 on my electric bill annually!
Climate Change Stabilization Requires Action at all Scales

 Individual – many actions are possible

 Municipal – 620 US cities representing over 67 million Americans
have signed the US Mayors Climate Protection Agreement pledging
emissions reductions
                         Action From the States

States with Greenhouse Gas Inventories




                                         States with Climate Change Action Plans




 California is Leading the Way!
States with Renewable Portfolio Standards




                                            Regional Agreements
   Businesses Understand that Using Energy More Efficiently
        Reduces Costs and Greenhouse Gas Emissions




“I am convinced that it is prudent to take action now to address what we
do know (about climate change).” James E. Rogers, CEO Cinergy
Climate change stabilization requires action from




              While individuals…
              Municipalities…
              States…
              Regional entities…
              and many other countries


              are taking action…
This has been our federal government‟s climate change policy:




         New Hampshire residents got tired of waiting…
    ..we placed on the ballots in       towns
    throughout NH a resolution calling for federal and
    local action on climate change.




And what was the response from New Hampshire?
              Loud and Clear!




towns endorsed the resolution! (90%)


towns did not endorse the resolution (7%)


towns tabled the resolution (3%)
                   New Hampshire Climate Change Resolution



   To see if the town will go on record in support of effective actions by the President
   and the Congress to address the issue of climate change which is increasingly
   harmful to the environment and economy of New Hampshire and to the future well
   being of the people of ____________.

These actions include:

 1.    Establishment of a national program requiring reductions of U.S. greenhouse
       gas emissions while protecting the U.S. economy.

 2.    Creation of a major national research initiative to foster rapid development of
       sustainable energy technologies thereby stimulating new jobs and investment.

   In addition, the town of __________ encourages New Hampshire citizens to work
   for emission reductions within their communities, and we ask our Selectmen to
   consider the appointment of a voluntary energy committee to recommend local
   steps to save energy and reduce emissions.




                     www.carboncoalition.org
With our first-in-the-
nation primary, New
Hampshire residents
can impact the tone
and issues of the next
Presidential election.




Let‟s make sure the
Presidential candidates
understand we want
ACTION on climate
change!
We are Already Seeing the Effects
What About the Naysayers???




To those people who insist that we can‟t reduce our
greenhouse gas emissions because our economy is
simply too fossil fuel based and renewable energies
can‟t meet our energy demand


I‟ve got this question…
“What have we ever created, developed, invented,
engineered, and patented that ever began with the
assumption that


„This will NEVER work. This just CAN‟T be done.‟ ”
              Do you think this happened?




Wilbur: “Wow, this flying thing is WAY harder than I thought.”


Orville: “Yeah, let‟s just quit.”
                 If we take an historical perspective
         we have met major environmental challenges in the past:


       40 years               25 years                    20 years                       Now
         ago                    ago                         ago


                     OZONE                                                      CLIMATE
 SMOG             DESTRUCTION                    ACID RAIN                      CHANGE

  Solution:         Solution: Montreal         Solution: a market-based      Solution: households,
   catalytic      Protocol CFC phaseout         “cap and trade” system      industry, & government
  converter        (US key participant)        for regulating utility SO2      working together
(US invention)                                  emissions (US creation)



 Since then:          Smog reduced by one-third to one-half
                      CFCs all but eliminated, ozone layer appears to be (slowly)
                     rebounding
                      Acid rain emissions cut by a third; forests rebounding

        In all of these cases, reductions in pollutants were much cheaper and
        occurred much faster than anticipated! We CAN meet the challenge and
        reduce the risk of climate change!
Using Current Technologies We Can Significantly Reduce Our
Emissions Giving Us “Breathing Room” to Transition to a (Hydrogen?)
Fueled World

        3                                                   Electricity end-
                                                            use efficiency
                                                2.6
       2.5                                                   Improved
                                                             Building and
                                                             Industrial
        2                                                    Efficiency

                         1.8                                Passenger
                                                            vehicle
 GtC




       1.5                                                  efficiency

                                                            Other transport
                                                            Efficiency (“smart
        1                                                   growth”
                                                            transportation
                                                0.9         planning; mass
                                                            transit)
       0.5
                                                             Renewables

                                                            CCS and Supply
        0                                                   efficiency
         1970    1990       2010       2030         2050
                                           Source: Pacala and Socolow, 2004
The United States is well positioned to create many of the technologies
and products needed to transition to a low carbon energy world.


•   Technologies are particularly needed in China and India.
•   New jobs and new industries will be created




                     We just need to get going!
                                                               www.ecogeek.org
                            In Conclusion…

                            It‟s up to us


                         How our climate changes in
                         this century really depends
                         on us.


                         The energy choices we
                         make today will largely
                         determine the climate we
                         have tomorrow.



Roger Stephenson photo
The choice is ours.
Thank-you!




  http://carbonchallenge.sr.unh.edu
References:


Slide 4: Average Temperature on Earth without Greenhouse Gases. Source: Vital Climate Graphics:
http://www.vitalgraphics.net/climate2.cfm?pageID=6
Slide 9: Oceans and Climate Change. Source: The Oceanic Sink for Anthropogenic CO2 Science Science 16 July 2004
[http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/305/5682/367] and NASA Facts: The Roles of the Ocean in Climate Change
[http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/MediaResources/Roles_Ocean.pdf]
Slide 10: Thermohaline Circulation. Source: NASA Facts: The Roles of the Ocean in Climate Change
[http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/MediaResources/Roles_Ocean.pdf]
Slides 12 Ice core image from An Inconvenient Truth. p. 65
Slides 13-16: EPICA Ice Core. Source: An Inconvenient Truth. pp. 66-67.
Slide 17: Keeling Curve. Source: NOAA Climate Monitoring and Diagnostic Laboratory (CMDL)
Slide 18: CH4 and N2O since Industrial Revolution. Source: IPCC: http://www.ipcc.ch/present/graphics/2001syr/large/02.01.jpg
Slide 20: Temperature Changes in 1995. Source: NCAR Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) Data available
through EOS-WEBSTER http://www.eos-webster.sr.unh.edu
Slide 22: Human Population. Source: An Inconvenient Truth. pp. 216-217.
Slide 23: Carbon Dioxide Projections. Vital Climate Graphics. Source:
http://www.vitalgraphics.net/graphic.cfm?filename=climate2/large/14.jpg
Slide 24: Temperature Change Projections for 2100. NCAR Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) Data available
through EOS-WEBSTER http://www.eos-webster.sr.unh.edu
Slide 27: Climate Impacts. Vital Climate Graphics http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/20.htm
Slides 28-29 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. 2004. Impacts of a Warming Arctic; http://amap.no/acia/
Slide 31: Source: An Inconvenient Truth. P. 145
Slides 32-34 Weiss and Overpeck; University of Arizona

Slides 35-36 San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission; http://www.bcdc.ca.gov/index.php?cat=56
Slide 37: Al Gore, An Inconvenient Truth. pp. 108-109
Slide 38: Al Gore, An Inconvenient Truth. pp. 116
Slide 39: Al Gore, An Inconvenient Truth. pp. 120
Slide 40: Al Gore, An Inconvenient Truth. pp. 156-157
Slide 42: Union of Concerned Scientists, Global Warming in New Hampshire
Slide 43-46: Northeastern Climate Impact Assessment, The Changing Northeast Climate
Slides 51-52 and Slides 53-54: California Climate Change Center; Our Changing Climate: Assessing the Risks to
California
Slide 63: Carbon Dioxide from Vehicles. Toyota Corolla, Camry, and Land Cruiser MPG estimates from
http://www.fueleconomy.gov/
Slides 77-79: Pew Center on Global Climate Change; http://www.pewclimate.org
Slide 89: Image from the North Carolina Division of Archives and History
Slide 90: Some Convenient Truths. Atlantic Monthly (September, 2006)
Slide 91: S. Pacala and R. Socolow. Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years
with Current Technologies Science (August 13, 2004; Vol. 305)




           Special thanks to Dr. Steve Frolking, Dr. Rob Braswell, and Dr. Annette
           Schloss for reviewing this presentation and making numerous helpful
           suggestions.




                                                                                                                July 27, 2007

								
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