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Department of Infrastructure and Planning
Sunshine Coast – what
are the big demographic
changes?
Alison Taylor
4th State of the Region Summit
Sunshine Coast University
6 November 2008
Outline
• Past and current growth
• Future growth scenarios
• The biggest demographic change - ageing
• How does Sunshine Coast compare with other major centres?
• Who is coming and who is going?
• Selected indicators of economic change and social capital
• What is the impact for business, government and the community?
Sunshine Coast population
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006pr 2007p
Caloundra (C) Maroochy (S) Noosa (S)
Source: PIFU calculations, ABS 3218.0
p – preliminary r - revised
Annual growth (amount)
Average annual change, five yearly periods and one year to 2007
12,000
06/07 growth down 17.5%
on previous 5 year average
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006pr 2007p
Caloundra (C) Maroochy (S) Noosa (S)
Source: PIFU calculations, ABS 3218.0
p – preliminary r - revised
Annual growth (rate)
Average annual change, five yearly periods and one year to 2007
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006pr 2007p
Caloundra (C) Maroochy (S) Noosa (S)
Source: PIFU calculations, ABS 3218.0
p – preliminary r - revised
Share of regional growth
Percentage share of Sunshine Coast total growth
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006pr 2007p
Caloundra (C) Maroochy (S) Noosa (S)
Source: PIFU calculations, ABS 3218.0
p – preliminary r - revised
What do we know about past growth on the Sunshine
Coast?
•The population numbers have trebled in the last 25 years (93k to 295k)
• Growth has averaged 9-10,000 each year 1986-2006
• Growth in 2006-07 was down 17.5% on the average 2001-06
What do we know about the rate and distribution of growth?
• The population was growing much faster in the late ’70s and ’80s
• Apart from 2006-07, the distribution of growth has remained steady
since the mid ’70s
Maroochy largest share generally 40-50% of region’s growth
Caloundra 30-40% of region’s growth
Noosa 16-17% of region’s growth except for 2006-07 when it was 6%
What about the future?
• Some think our projections are too high (those concerned with
environmental consequences, impacts on their quality of life or assets)
• Some think our projections are too low (those concerned with
stimulating increased economic activity, impacts on their bottom line)
• Some say we simply extrapolate past trends and do not take any
account of the future (those who are dissatisfied or haven’t read the
description of our methodology or associated research papers)
Our mission
… is to provide a set of projections using the best
models, incorporating the latest and most accurate
information and research, while remaining objective as
to the nature, scale and impact of future influences
To achieve this…
• Updates twice every five years to take account of new data, the latest
trends and research
• Maintenance of extensive databases
• Close scrutiny of results, comparison with actuals, analysis of
variation
• Continuous improvement of models to take account of external data
eg. land supply, development activity, industry planning
• Consultation program with every local council, discussion with local
experts
• Extensive program of presenting results and seeking feedback
Sunshine Coast future population
Low, medium and high series projections (2008 edition)
600,000
500,000
400,000
Low 461,200
300,000 Medium 501,200
High 558,900
200,000
100,000
0
86
91
96
01
p
11
16
21
26
31
06
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Low Medium High Actual
Source: PIFU calculations, ABS 3128.0 and
Queensland government, 2008 edition population
projections
What if the growth rate of last decade continued?
800,000
700,000 people on the
700,000
Sunshine Coast by 2031?
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
NB: ‘extrapolation’ is the result of
applying the growth rate 1996-2006
Actual Low Medium High Extrapolated
Source: PIFU calculations, ABS 3128.0 and
Queensland government, 2008 edition population
projections
Annual growth (amount)
Average annual change, five years ending
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
NB: ‘actual’ value for 2011
represents actual change 2006-07 Actual Low Medium High
Source: PIFU calculations, ABS 3128.0 and
Queensland government, 2008 edition population
projections
How big could this region get (in the next 25 years)?
• If growth resembles the medium series projections – 501,000
• If growth slows as in the low series projections – 461,000 (40,000 less
than the medium series)
• If growth increases as in the high series projections – 559,000 (58,000
more)
• If the growth rate of the past decade continues – 687,000 (186,000
more)
• If climate change impacts, peak oil and further financial crises all hit
hard – 415,000 (based on a 5% slowing in absolute growth each year)
• Or… the population could decline
Population ageing – the biggest impact…
• Across Queensland, the number of people aged 65 years or more will
double in the next two decades (from 511,000 to 1.2 million)
• Last 20 years - 242,000, projected increase next 20 years - 586,000
• Increase in this age group (up 115%) much larger than any other age
group (eg. kids under 15 years up 26%)
Share of population 65 years and over
• 1986 – 10.3%
• 2006 – 12.1%
• 2026 – 18.7%
• 2056 – 26.1%
Changes to age structure 1986 to 2026 (Sunshine Coast)
• On the Sunshine Coast, the number of people aged 65 years or more
will double in the next two decades (from 47,500 to 100,800)
• Last 20 years – 31,300, projected increase next 20 years - 53,200
• Increase in this age group (up 112%) much larger than any other age
group (eg. kids under 15 years up 44%)
Share of population aged 65 years or more
Sunshine Coast Queensland
1986 14.0% 10.3%
2006 16.1% 12.1%
2026 21.9% 18.7%
Source: QLD government 2008 ed. medium series
population projections
1986 population pyramid for Sunshine Coast (RC)
85+
80-84
1986 Total Population:
75-79 116,533
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14 Males Females
5-9
0-4
20000 15000 10000 5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000
Source: QLD government 2008 ed. medium series
population projections
2006 population pyramid for Sunshine Coast (RC)
85+
80-84
2006 Total Population:
75-79 295,125
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14 Males Females
5-9
0-4
20000 15000 10000 5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000
Source: QLD government 2008 ed. medium series
population projections
2026 population pyramid for Sunshine Coast (RC)
85+
80-84
2026 Total
75-79 Population:
70-74 460,866
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14 Males Females
5-9
0-4
20000 15000 10000 5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000
Source: QLD government 2008 ed. medium series
population projections
Changes to age structure 1986 to 2026 (Noosa)
• In Noosa, the number of people aged 65 years or more will double in
the next two decades (from 7,900 to 16,900)
• Last 20 years – 5,800, projected increase next 20 years - 9,000
• Increase in this age group (up 112%) much larger than any other age
group (eg. kids under 15 years down 21%)
Share of population aged 65 years or more
Noosa Sunshine Coast Queensland
1986 11.7% 14.0% 10.3%
2006 16.2% 16.1% 12.1%
2026 28.9% 21.9% 18.7%
Source: QLD government 2008 ed. medium series
population projections
1986 population pyramid for Noosa (S)
85+
80-84
1986 Total Population:
75-79 18,780
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29 Males Females
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Source: QLD government 2008 ed. medium series
population projections
2006 population pyramid for Noosa (S)
85+
80-84 2006 Total Population:
75-79 49,213
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24 Males Females
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Source: QLD government 2008 ed. medium series
population projections
2026 population pyramid for Noosa (S)
2026 Total
85+ Population:
80-84 58,626
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24 Males Females
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Source: QLD government 2008 ed. medium series
population projections
Comparative age structure
(for usual residents of local government areas at August 2006)
Sunshine Gold Brisbane Fraser Mackay Townsville Cairns Qld
Coast Coast Coast
Median 41 37 34 43 36 32 35 36
age
(years)
% less 19.5 18.3 18.1 19.4 22.1 21.7 21.8 20.7
than 15
% 25-54 39.4 42.0 44.3 36.0 43.7 43.1 46.1 42.0
% 65 or 16.6 14.2 11.8 19.4 10.6 9.3 9.0 12.4
over
Source: www.dip.qld.gov.au (Census fact sheets) and
ABS 2006 Census
Who is moving to the Sunshine Coast?
In flows from intrastate, interstate and overseas, 2001-2006
3,500
Two peaks, one
3,000 for 25-44 years
and one for 55-59
2,500 years
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
s
15 y e s
s
25 4 y e s
30 y e s
s
40 9 y e s
45 y e s
s
55 4 y e s
60 y e s
s
70 9 y e s
75 y e s
s
s
+ rs
-1 ar
ar
-1 ar
-2 ar
-2 ar
-3 ar
-3 ar
-4 ar
-4 ar
-5 ar
-5 ar
-6 ar
-6 ar
-7 ar
-7 ar
-8 ar
85 a
ye
20 y e
35 y e
50 y e
65 y e
80 y e
ye
10 9 ye
4
9
9
4
4
9
9
4
4
9
4
5-
Intrastate Interstate Overseas
Source: PIFU calculations, ABS 2006 Census
Who is moving away from Sunshine Coast?
Out flows from intrastate and interstate, 2001-2006
3,500
Two peaks, one
3,000 for 20-24 years
and one for 55-59
2,500 years
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
s
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
ar
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
+
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
5-
85
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
Intrastate Interstate
Source: PIFU calculations, ABS 2006 Census
What is the net change to the Sunshine Coast population?
Net change from intrastate and interstate movement, 2001-2006
2000
Two peaks, one
1500 for 35-39 years
and kids and one
1000 for 55-64 years
500
0
Net loss of 15-24
-500 year olds
-1000
-1500
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
+
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
5-
85
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
Intrastate Interstate
Source: PIFU calculations, ABS 2006 Census
Economic structure:
Where do workers living in Sunshine Coast work?
• 94,234 or 83.7% worked in Sunshine Coast
• 7,780 or 6.9% no fixed address
• 1,696 or 1.5% Queensland undefined
• 857 in Brisbane CBD
• 711 in Cooloola Shire (562 in Gympie)
• 678 in Central Caboolture
• 434 in Brisbane airport and port precinct
Source: PIFU calculations, ABS 2006 Census
Economic structure:
Where do workers working in Sunshine Coast live?
• 94,234 or 96.3% lived in Sunshine Coast
• 209 from Central Caboolture (409 from balance of Caboolture)
• 187 from Morayfield
• 162 from Gympie
• 133 from Burpengary-Narrangba
Source: PIFU calculations, ABS 2006 Census
Economic structure – labour force status
• People aged 20-44 years unemployed and looking for work
Maroochy – 1,943 or 4.4 % of people of this age (ranked 48 out of 160 in Qld)
Caloundra – 1,170 or 4.6% (ranked 39 out of 160 in Qld)
Noosa – 625 or 4.9% (ranked 29 out of 160 in Qld)
3,738 people in Sunshine Coast (949 or 25% were aged 20-24 years)
• People aged 20-44 years not in the labour force
Maroochy – 6,961 or 15.7% of people this age
Caloundra – 4,135 or 16.4%
Noosa – 2,122 or 16.6%
13,218 people in Sunshine Coast (5,165 or 39% were aged 35-44 years)
Source: PIFU calculations, ABS 2006 Census
Economic structure – change in main industries
Selected industries of employment, 1996, 2001 and 2006
18,000
up 68%
16,000
14,000
up 90%
up 82%
12,000
10,000
up 68%
8,000
up 65% up 89%
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Manuf acturing Construction Retail trade Accom & food Prof , sci & Public admin & Education & Health care &
services tech services saf ety training social assis
55% increase in employed
1996 2001 2006
persons 1996-2006
Source: PIFU calculations, ABS 2006 Census
Social capital – education
Sunshine Gold Brisbane Fraser Mackay Townsville Cairns Qld
Coast Coast Coast
% 3.8 4.9 8.9 3.3 3.4 6.6 4.1 5.3
attending
TAFE or
Uni
• 4,014 people aged 20-34 years left school at year 11 or below
• 1,725 people aged 20-34 years left school at year 9 or below
Source: PIFU calculations, ABS 2006 Census
Social capital – children in families where both parents (or
single parent) not working
• 7,178 children aged less than 15 years or 14.8% of this age group
• 1,356 were in families where both parents were not in the labour force
• 148 in families where both parents were unemployed
Source: PIFU calculations, ABS 2006 Census
Summary: what are the big demographic changes?
Population
• Population will increase in size – probably to around half a
million people within next 25 years
• The rate of growth will slow to average about 8,000 people
each year
Summary: what are the big demographic changes?
Ageing
• Population ageing is already pronounced (particularly in Noosa)
• Future growth in numbers of older people will outweigh growth in
every other age group
• By 2026, more than one in every four people Sunshine Coast
residents will be aged 65 or over
Summary: what are the big demographic changes?
Migration
• Current migration patterns have resulted in:
net gains of young families and retirees mainly from interstate
a net loss of young people to other parts of Queensland
Summary: what are the big demographic changes?
Economic indicators
• 96% of all jobs in Sunshine Coast at 2006 were occupied by locals
• 84% of employed locals worked in Sunshine Coast
• Sunshine Coast in the top third of Qld areas for 20-44 year olds
unemployed – large number of young unemployed (950 were 20-24
years)
• Stronger than average growth of employment in construction,
public admin and safety, and health care and social assistance over
past decade
Summary: what are the big demographic changes?
Education and social indicators
• Relatively low educational participation in uni or TAFE with over
4,000 people leaving school at or below Year 11 level
• Nearly 15% of children under 15 lived in a home where both
parents, or a lone parent, were unemployed or not in the labour
force
Implications: for business, government and the community
The population is growing and ageing
• Bigger population will mean a larger market and more
opportunities, an increased rates and tax base but balanced by
the need for extra services and facilities, and expanded
infrastructure
• Nature of demand will change as the population ages (both
numbers and share of population will increase)
Implications: for business, government and the community
New people will continue to come and more jobs needed
• Continuing influx of new residents, particularly from interstate,
brings new energy and resources but also creates new demands
and the need to re-establish social support networks
• Ongoing need to create more local jobs – particularly in key
industry niches with good future prospects
• Vital that there are opportunities for young people to get jobs locally
• Encourage education and training to better equip people for the
future
What does a city of 300,000 elsewhere in the world look
like?
Coventry (UK) – 306,000
• Further inland than any other city in Britain
• The site of Lady Godiva’s naked horseback ride
• Devastated in WWII, boomed in ’50s and ’60s but hard
hit by decline in motor industry – high unemployment
• Recovering with the introduction of new industries such
as business services, creative industries, logistics and
leisure Lady Godiva by John Collier ca 1897
Historic buildings
(cathedral ruins)
Council House Incinerator burns rubbish Sports arena Coventry University
and generates power
What does a city of 300,000 elsewhere in the world look
like?
Reno (Nevada, USA) – 303,000
• Relatively young (only 150 years old)
• Settled because of gold discovery and laying of railroad
• Legalisation of gambling and liberal divorce laws
contributed to development
• Gambling remains strong and the city is famous for its
casinos
• Good transport links, low taxes and cheap land created
opportunity for warehousing and distribution industries
• Known as the ‘biggest little city in the world’
Strong brand
Iconic images Reno skyline Lake Tahoe
What does a city of 500,000 elsewhere in the world look
like?
Dublin (Ireland) – 505,000
• In 1800s was the administrative, cultural and economic
hub of Ireland
• Strong growth in ’90s and ’00s leading to increase in cost
of living and average wage
• Banking and finance industries have become important
• Microsoft, Google, Amazon, PayPal, Yahoo and Pfizer Trinity College
have European headquarters there
• Re-development of inner city industrial areas leading to
Council relaxing restrictions on high rise development
• Growth forecast to continue - albeit slower than the ‘Celtic City Hall
Tiger’ years – at 3-5%
Europe’s 5th largest stadium
River Liffey
Port tunnel High speed tram DART train
What does a city of 500,000 elsewhere in the world
look like?
Baton Rouge (Louisiana, USA) – 479,000
• Since European settlement has functioned under seven
governing bodies
• Immigration of French-speaking Canadians (Cajuns)
contributed to unique cultural atmosphere Exxon facility
• Spared damage in Civil War and survived intact Louisiana State University
• Significant modernisation in 1900s due to strategic location for
production of petroleum, natural gas and salt plus north-south
railroad and US effort in WWII
• Sprawl in the ’50s and ’60s - inner city revitalisation in the ’90s
• Major transit port, 2nd largest refinery and state capital (lots of
government employment)
Government building
Planned 30+ storey condo
(ground breaking 2009)
Arts centre
Baton Rouge and the Mississippi River
Lessons for the Sunshine Coast
• Need the basics of transport, education, health, civic and cultural
infrastructure
• Sunshine Coast shares some characteristics with other cities –
can look to what they did for ideas, for example:
Coventry reduced unemployment by stimulating new industries (business
services, creative industries, logistics, leisure)
Dublin attracted European headquarters, a cluster developed
Lessons for the Sunshine Coast
• Capitalise on natural advantages eg. strategic location and
assets eg. environment (more national parks than any other
region in Queensland)
• Have a strong brand or image and work it (there are already 5
‘Sunshine Coasts’ around the world – Australia, Canada, New
Zealand, South Africa and United Kingdom)
Lessons for the Sunshine Coast
• Every city experiences good times and bad times – what counts
is taking up opportunities and making something of them
• Be prepared to
reinvent yourself
be flexible
innovative
willing to change
(eg. redevelopment of existing areas, relaxing restrictions if needed, striving for
the best and looking to the future)
