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Housing Needs in Birmingham

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					Birmingham City Council Housing
Strategy 2004/05

Part 1: Making the Connection

Technical Appendix C

Affordable Housing Needs Model
Introduction and background
This technical paper is an appendix to the housing strategy being prepared by
the Housing Department. It sets out the approach taken in determining the
level of housing need for social rented housing across the city over the 10
year period 2004/05 to 2013/14. Social rented housing includes housing
managed by Birmingham City Council (BCC) and Registered Social Landlords
(RSLs) as well as shared ownership housing managed by RSLs. The model
is based on the ODPM guidance: Local Housing Needs Assessment: A Guide
to Good Practice (ODPM, 2000). The approach to modelling need for social
rented housing is set out in Table A1.1 and is applied in the following way:
i)        Needs estimates for the whole of Birmingham utilising available data in
          the council and housing association waiting lists in addition to lettings
          information and disposals of stock (clearance and right-to-buy);
ii)       a disaggregation of this model to Housing Market Areas in order to
          account for differences in demand for social rented housing across
          Birmingham.

The full results are shown in Tables A1.1 to A1.3 below. When taking into
account planned demolitions the model indicates that an additional
15,905 affordable and social rented dwellings are required to meet
demand over the 5 year period 2004/05 to 2008/09. The programme
includes 3,363 units in Year 1, 3,275 (Year 2), 3,225 (Year 3), 3,157 (Year
4) and 2,885 social rented units in year 5 (2008/09). From 2009/10 to
2013/14 a programme of 6,245 affordable and social rented dwellings is
required for the 5-year period.

Implementation of the model needs to recognise that the pattern of demand
across the city is uneven and there is a mismatch in the demand and supply
of particular property types (Table A1.3). There also needs to be sensitive to
the needs and aspirations of households presenting for social housing. Our
Residents Survey indicates that where there is a need for affordable housing
the preference of Asian households is for low cost home ownership and
council housing leading to right-to-buy. Therefore, whilst the model follows
best practice guidance in assessing local housing needs for social rented
housing, changes in the operation of the housing waiting list and preferences
for different types of affordable housing will mean that some of the demand
presenting on the council and Housing Association waiting lists will be for
shared ownership or low cost affordable housing. For this reason the model
needs to be read in conjunction with the evidence base set out in the housing
strategy, this includes:
         Housing Market Area profiles
         The Housing Department’s sustainability index
         The Housing Department’s Residents Survey
         The Business Plan and Action Plan.




                                          2
The model will be updated on an annual basis to monitor trends in the current
baseline position and demand across property types. It is the intention of the
Housing Department to produce an updated model which will make estimates
for the total demand for affordable housing (including social rented housing).
This will take account of tenure preferences, income levels and aspirations of
different households across Housing Market Areas of the city. In the next
section we consider the implementation of the model in more detail.

Implementation of the social housing needs model
In this section we set out the approach to modelling social housing and
affordable housing needs for Birmingham

1) New applicants to the waiting list as at 1 April 2003

This is the figure reported in the HIP. It is the new applicants on the waiting
list as at 1 April 2003. This is used as a baseline for comparison with relets
and the waiting list figure of the ‘new households with priority need net of
deletions’ as at line 9. The waiting list for council housing applicants was
18,482 and for Housing Associations this was estimated to be 5,155 as at 1
April 2003 (Table A1.1).

2) Less households not in need or non-priority cases

The best practice identified by ODPM in Local Housing Needs Assessment: A
Guide to Good Practice (DETR, 2000) requires local authorities to consider
insurance cases/deadwood and where in-situ solutions are most appropriate.
To account for these cases we have removed from the waiting list households
that are not in housing need or have rejected suitable offers. The cases that
we have removed as not in housing need are as follows:
      applicants that have socio-economic status only (ie: 50 points)
      applicants with zero points
      applicants that rejected 2 or more offers
      applicants that had been registered over 1 year and had rejected an
       offer

3) Less duplicate applicants on the LA/HA lists

Due to the nature of general needs waiting lists in the social rented sector
there will be a degree of duplication of applicants on both the waiting list
operated by Birmingham City Council and waiting lists operated independently
by Registered Social Landlords. Our basic approach to determining the total
size of the waiting list operated by Housing Associations in Birmingham and
account for the degree of overlap with Birmingham City Council’s waiting list is
shown in Figure A1.1. The method is described more fully in the section
below. Three datasets were used to model overall demand in the RSL sector
and to account for duplication:



                                       3
      The council’s waiting list
      A sample (comprising of 4 main providers) of Housing Association
       waiting lists
      The Housing Association stock holdings database.

Figure A1.1 Attributing households in need from Housing Association waiting
            lists to HMAs

  Sample of Housing                 Match sample of HAs             Matched
  Association waiting               waiting list to Local           HA-LA
  lists from HAs                    Authority waiting list on       sample
                                    address and postcode

                                    Utilising stock holdings of
                                    sample HAs estimate total       Estimated
  Reduce waiting list in            size of waiting list in each    size of HA
  sample datasets by                HMA by applying ratio of        list in each
  factor of 0.36 to                 waiting list to stock           HMA less
  account for duplicate             against known stock of all      duplicates
  cases                             HAs in each HMA

  Remove HA waiting list                                            HA demand
  applicants ‘not in need’          Apply origin-destination        by HMA
  in each HMA                       ratios ie: preferences          excluding
  according to criteria             expressed on local              duplicates by
  and ratios adopted in             authority waiting list to re-   property type
  the LA model (at line             assign demand to HMAs           required
  2)


i) Match Sample of HAs to the local authority waiting list
The first stage of the exercise was to identify commonality between the
sample of Housing Association lists and Birmingham City Council Housing
Department’s waiting list. The applicant address (House or Flat number) and
Postcode was used to match on both lists. This revealed an overlap of
approximately 36%; ie: 36% of applicants for RSL housing also appeared on
the Birmingham City Council waiting list.

ii) Estimate the size of the waiting list across HMAs
Birmingham City Council holds information on the total stock holdings of RSLs
within each of the city’s nine Housing Market Areas. Using the sample waiting
list a calculation was produced expressing their waiting list size as a
percentage of their stock holdings in each of the HMAs. This was then
applied to estimate the size of the HA waiting list in each HMA. Across the
city the RSL waiting list was estimated to be 5,155 households (Table A1.4).

iii) Estimating the level of need for housing on HA waiting lists
The next step was to split this overall number of Housing Association
applicants into those ‘in need’ and those ‘not in need’. By utilising the
approach to estimating ‘need’ used in line 2 of the model outlined above:




                                         4
     Housing Association Waiting list * Ratio of Housing Need survey in need
     = Number of Housing Association applicants in need

Approximately 69% of the waiting list (3,552 households) was estimated to be
‘in priority need for social rented housing’ (Table A1.4). At this stage we
reduced the waiting list by 36% to reflect the duplicate cases identified in step
i) above. The total number of households on the RSL waiting list and in need
of social rented housing was 2,273 as at 1 April 2003.

iv) Modelling the estimated demand for HA rented housing need across
Housing Market Areas by property type required

The final stage of the exercise involved modelling the number of households
in priority need on RSL waiting lists (net of duplicates) across each of the nine
Housing Market Areas and the type of properties required to meet demand.
Council housing applicants can make up to six neighbourhood preferences
and these preferences can be attributed to a Housing Market Area. This
information can be used to model demand (priority housing need) across the
HMAs expressing this as a matrix of origin of demand against stated
preferences (destinations). The methodology followed the procedure adopted
below under the heading Modelling Demand by Property Type and Housing
Market Area (below).

4)     Plus transfer applicants in need

Figure A1.2 Criteria for inclusion of transfer applicants

                           Live Transfers cases as at 1
                                    April 2003


                                   15,447
                                                             Exclude Ordinary
                                                             transfer cases with no
                                                             special case type, bed
       SPECIAL TRANSFERS           ORDINARY                  space or need points
      Include special cases
      such as homeless,
                                   TRANSFERS
                                   Only include ordinary
                                                                   7,613
      clearance medical cases      cases with bed space
      for priority transfer        points and child points

            2,512                         5,322

                     Priority transfer cases


                          7,834



                                           5
A total of 15,477 households were on the transfer list as at April 1 2003. Of
these we excluded non-priority cases as outlined in Figure A1.2. A total of
7,834 transfers were included in the model. Lettings of HA housing stock
could not be disaggregated from the waiting list in line 1 of the model.

5)     Plus priority homeless in temp accommodation

Homeless count in temporary accommodation at 1st April 2003.

6)     Minus policy on clearance of backlog (= 1 years lettings)

The ODPM guidance on local needs assessments makes recommendations
that local authorities should clear the backlog of need and the assumption is
that a 20% reduction in the backlog would remove the total backlog over a 5-
year period. Birmingham City Council Housing department believes that this
is an unrealistic policy to pursue. Our policy is to remove the backlog of
existing need up to the equivalent of one year’s aggregate lettings of social
housing across the city. In the next section we set out the issues related to
the policy judgement on removal of the total backlog over the short to medium
term:

i)    A policy to remove the backlog (ie: remove the waiting list) within 5 years
      would not be achievable. This is because an increased supply of
      housing would only serve to increase demand for already popular
      neighbourhoods.       Clearing the backlog could have a potentially
      disastrous impact on our housing markets, as it would remove the
      waiting list entirely and increase tenancy turnover. The increased
      pattern of churning would reduce the cohesion of neighbourhoods and
      impact on popularity and perceptions.

ii)   The delivery of the social housing programme should be conducted
      within a framework that is securely founded in the principles of plan,
      monitor and manage. If we plan to remove the waiting list based on
      current needs we would seriously under or over estimate the underlying
      demand.
      The waiting list fluctuates from month-to-month and therefore caution
      needs to be exercised in modelling future need. Over the 10-year period
      1994-2004 the average number of new applicants for council housing
      has averaged 1,677 per month and the average for 2003 was in line with
      this figure. However, the number has fluctuated and the pattern appears
      cyclical (Figure A1.3). Between 1994-2000 the number increased year
      on year. Since 2000 the average number has declined although the
      average in 2003 was still above the average monthly presentations
      between 1994-1997. Newly arising need in line 10 of the model is
      therefore based on presentations for housing made in 2003, which is in
      line with the 10-year average.




                                        6
Figure A1.3 Number of new applicants to the waiting list 2002-2003
 3000                                                                                            60
                     Number of New Applicants
                     (left axis)
                     % change based on 1994
                     monthly average (1265)                                                      40
 2500


                                                                                                 20
 2000

                                                                                                 0
 1500
                                                                                                 -20

 1000
                                                                                                 -40


   500
                                                                                                 -60


       0                                                                                         -80
           1994


                  1995



                           1996



                                    1997



                                                1998



                                                       1999



                                                              2000



                                                                     2001



                                                                            2002



                                                                                   2003



                                                                                          2004
In this strategy we have set out the baseline programme that needs to be
delivered in order to secure some underlying demand for our properties. In
future years we will monitor these trends and adjust the projected shortfall
accordingly. The shortfall identified is adjusted in relation to demand and is
founded within the principles of plan, monitor and manage.

iii)       The majority of housing need is met within a year (Table A1.5). The
           delivery of additional housing identified in the backlog at line 15 of the
           model would improve this performance in line with the achieved housing
           of households presenting on the list within the municipal year.

7)           Backlog of Existing Need

The backlog of existing need is the sum of lines 1-6.

8)           Annual need to reduce backlog (20%)

A policy judgement of reducing 20% of the backlog over a 5 year period is
applied.

9)           Plus Housing Register new households with priority need net of
             deletions including new household formation

This is calculated by comparing the waiting list as at 1 April 2002 to the
lettings that occurred during the period 1 April 2002 to 31 March 2003. The
waiting list as at 1 April 2003 is then added to this to give the overall level of
newly arising need throughout the year (Table A1.6).


                                                        7
10)    Newly Arising Need

Consideration was given to factoring in new household formation based on
the Chelmer model used by East Anglia University in modelling household
growth. Using this model, we estimated an additional 1,200 households per
annum over the next 10 years. We believed that the opening of the waiting
list following the Homelessness Act 2002 would include some of that growth.
Furthermore, as noted above, newly arising need in line 10 of the model is
based on new applications for housing made in 2003, which is in line with the
10-year average and therefore flattens out any cyclical effect in demand
arising from changes in the underlying demographic.

11)    Gross relets (LA)

All council and housing association lettings related to applicants and transfers
during the period 1 April 2002 to 1 April 2003 (in the case of Housing
Associations data was only available for 1 April 2001 to 1 April 2002).

12)    Less projected relets on vacant properties

Whilst we have exercised caution in judgments on the elimination of the
backlog, we have been more relaxed in the modelling of the effect of vacant
properties and disposals (clearance and RTB) in our model. The impact of
stock on the model is largely reflected in the flow of lettings at line 11; with any
changes to the stock of dwellings resulting in an increase in the relet rate,
which will then impact on the overall level of need.

However, we have taken the view that long-term vacant properties reduce our
ability to meet housing need and therefore require insertion into our model in
order to fulfil our objectives of plan, monitor and manage. If vacant properties
were part of the housing stock they would allow an additional 107 properties
to be let (based on an average turnover rate of 14% on 766 long-term vacant
properties as at 1 April 2003).

13)    Less projected relets on planned clearance and RTB

Similarly projected clearance and RTB reduce our ability to meet housing
need. Based on an average turnover rate of 14% the 3,482 planned
disposals (RTB & Clearance) will reduce the flow of lettings by 487 in
2004/05.

14)    Supply of affordable units

The sum of lines 11 to 13.

15)    Overall shortfall (surplus)




                                         8
The overall shortfall (surplus) of affordable units is the sum of line 8 plus10
less line 14 ie:

       (Annual backlog + Newly arising need) - Supply of affordable units

Modelling Demand by Property Type and Housing market Area

The shortfall of 3,363 social rented and affordable housing units identified in
the citywide model (Table A1.1) was then modelled to each Housing Market
Area and a profile of the required property types identified for each HMA.
Information from the council’s waiting list on demand for property types and
the supply of lettings for the period April 2002-March 2003 was used to
estimate the demand for housing association housing on a similar basis. The
demand for housing was based on the preferences for neighbourhoods and
assigned to HMAs. Seven steps were used to profile the required property
types across the HMAs:
i)     Notional social rented coming through each year including transfers:
       based on the profile of lettings of council stock made in 2002/03, the
       proportions were assigned to the aggregate lettings of Housing
       Association stock over the same period. A total of 13,503 social
       lettings in 2002/03 (by property type and HMA) are shown in Table
       A1.7;
ii)    Aggregated demand by preferred HMA as at 1 April 2003: based on the
       profile of waiting list applicants in need on the council waiting list; the
       proportions were assigned to the aggregate demand for Housing
       Association stock (excluding non-priority cases) over the same period.
       A total of 16,901 households in priority need were on the council and
       Housing Association waiting list on 1st April 2003, these are shown by
       property type and HMA in Table A1.8;
iii)   Ratio of aggregate supply to aggregate demand: for each property
       demand was compared to lettings for the year; the model assumes that
       where demand is below supply no additional properties are required ie:
       Table A1.9 shows that 98.6% of demand for 1 bed satisfied in the year
       in City Centre;
iv)    Delete cases above 1.0 ie: properties with over supply: where the ratio
       was above 1 then supply exceeds demand (Table A1.10);
v)     Reverse the power of the coefficient: the higher the coefficient in Table
       A1.10 the lower the demand therefore the coefficient in Table A1.10
       was reversed (1-coefficent) (Table A1.11);
vi)    Percentage of each property type in demand areas: the percentage is
       based on the coefficient share of row totals in Table A1.11 and shown
       in Table A1.12;
vii)   Programme in first year based on Housing Needs model across the city
       of an additional 3,363 affordable and social rented dwellings: the total
       programme and number of units is shown in Table A1.2.




                                        9
Tables




  10
Table A1.1          Social housing needs in Birmingham
                                                                                               LA           HA          Total
1)     New applicants to the waiting list as at 1 April 2003                                18482          5155        23637
2)     Less households not in need or non-priority cases                                     5769          1603        -7372
3)     Less duplicate applicants on the LA/HA lists                                              -         1279        -1279
4)     Plus transfer applicants in need                                                      7834             -        +7834
5)     Plus priority homeless in temp accommodation                                           259             -         +259
6)     Minus policy on clearance of backlog                                                                           -13503
       (= 1 year of lettings)
7)     Backlog of Existing Need                                                                                        9576
8)     Annual need to reduce backlog (20%)                                                                             1915
9)     Plus Housing Register new households with priority                                   11256          2711       14237
       need net of deletions including new household
       formation
10)    Newly arising need                                                                      14237                  14237
11)    Gross relets                                                                          9364          4139       13503
12)    Less projected relets on 766 vacant properties as at                                   107             -        -107
       1 April 2003 (> 6 months)
13)    Less projected relets on 4,337 planned disposals                                       607                       -607
       (RTB & Clearance) in 2004/05 (HRA Business Plan)
14)    Supply of affordable units                                                            8650          4139       12789

15)    Overall shortfall (8+10-14)                                                                        3363

Note: Housing Association waiting list was not split between transfers and general applicants as the data was held
inconsistently


Table A1.2          Programme in first year based on Housing Needs model across
                    the city of an additional 3,363 affordable and social rented
                    dwellings
                                                                              Maisonettes
                                    1 and 2 bed




                                                    Bungalows




                                                                              and 3 bed
                                                                     houses




                                                                                                houses



                                                                                                             houses
                                                                     2 bed




                                                                                                3 bed



                                                                                                             4 bed




                                                                                                                         Total
                                    Flats




                                                                              flats




City Centre                                 1                          38                         26           36       100
East Birmingham                                                       279                        247          344       870
Eastern Periphery                        21                            76                                      57       154
North West Birmingham                                                  84                            63       153       300
Northern Periphery                       20         23                 46                                      30       119
Northern Suburbs                         41                            61                            17        67       185
South West                                                             68                                                68
Suburban Ring North                    94          97                 149           24            10         145        518
Suburban Ring South                   224         126                 231           84            33         350       1049
Birmingham                            400         246                1033          108           395        1181       3363




                                                                11
Table A1.3         10 year social and affordable housing programme


                                 2004/05    2005/06     2006/07     2007/08      2008/09
                                  Year 1     Year 2      Year 3      Year 4       Year 5
        1
Backlog                             1915       1915        1915        1915         1915
Plus newly arising need           14237       14237      14237       14237        14237
             2
Minus relets                      13503       13420      13437       13473        13525
Vacants                              766        740         706         674          644
RTB                                 3000       1800        1600        1400         1200
Demolitions                         1337       1337        1337        1337            0
               3
Net disposals                        714        543         510         478          258
                      4
New supply required                 3363       3275        3225        3157         2885


              5
Opening stock                     72,820     68,483      65,346      62,409       59,672
                         6
HA Stock assumptions              35,511     40,372      44,958      49,330       53,490
                                 108,331    108,855     110,304     111,739      113,162




                                2009/10     2010/11     2011/12     2012/13       2013/14
                                 Year 6      Year 7      Year 8      Year 9       Year 10
        7
Backlog                               0           0           0           0             0
Plus newly arising need          14237        14237      14237       14237         14237
             8
Minus relets                     13736        13321      13099       12901         12725
Vacants                             631         588         557         525           494
RTB                                1000         833         648         462           276
Demolitions                           0           0           0           0             0
               9
Net disposals                       228         199         169         138           108
                      10
New supply required                 729        1115        1306        1474          1620


              11
Opening stock                    58,472      54,423      51,534      48,645        45,756
                         12
HA Stock assumptions             57,253      58,751      60,538      62,433        64,421
                                115,725     113,174     112,072     111,078       110,177




1
  20% of backlog up to 1 years worth of lettings
2
  Based on 12.5% turnover of combined LA and HA stock
3
  Based on 14% turnover on disposals of LA stock (turnover 2002/03)
4
  Does not take into account planned provision (as at 1 February 2004 this included 700 S106
and 177 ADP units)
5
  Based on assumptions in the HRA Business Plan; estimates beyond 2010/11 derived from
trends
6
  Based on December 2002 stock figure
7
  20% of backlog up to 1 years worth of lettings
8
  Based on 12.5% turnover of combined LA and HA stock
9
  Based on 14% turnover on disposals of LA stock (turnover 2002/03)
10
   Does not take into account planned provision (as at 1 February 2004 this included 700
S106 and 177 ADP units)
11
   Based on assumptions in the HRA Business Plan; estimates beyond 2010/11 derived from
trends
12
   Based on December 2002 stock figure


                                            12
Table A1.4    Estimated size of Housing Association waiting list and
              households in need
                                      HA                           On HA        On HA
                      HA stock waiting Potential          % of waiting list waiting list
                          (Jan list as % size of HA applicants      and in         less
                         2003) of stock waiting list  in need        need duplicates
City Centre               2883       14.2       410       77.1        316           202
East Birmingham           7381       15.5      1143       69.8        798           511
Eastern Periphery         1566       11.3       176       73.5        130            83
North West                8131       13.0      1060       64.1        679           434
Northern Periphery         681       16.3       111       69.9          77           50
Northern Suburbs          1586       10.3       164       62.6        102            65
South West                3951       16.3       645       75.6        488           312
Suburban Ring North       2907       15.7       457       64.0        292           187
Suburban Ring South       6425       15.4       990       67.6        670           429
Total                   35511        14.2      5155       68.9       3552         2273




Table A1.5    Proportion of waiting list in need that have been re-housed at
              end of year
                                                                         % in need at
                                                     On list 2002 &      beginning of
HMA                                       In Need              2003      year housed
City Centre                                   701               179              74.5
East Birmingham                              2929              1098              62.5
Eastern Periphery                             987               311              68.5
NW Birmingham                                2866               856              70.1
Northern Periphery                            348                92              73.6
Northern Suburbs                              281               101              64.1
SW Birmingham                                1849               472              74.5
Suburban Ring North                          1186               359              69.7
Suburban Ring South                          1566               515              67.1
Total                                       12713              3983              68.7




                                         13
Table A1.6    Newly arising need for social and affordable housing



                                   2) 1 April 3) 1 April
                                        2002       2003 4) year on 5) Newly
                           1) LA    Waiting Waiting           year     arising
                          Relets      List in    List in change (3-   need in
Council                  2002-03        Need       Need          2) year (1+4)
City Centre                  475         606        665         59         534
East Birmingham              877        2109       2611        502       1379
Eastern Periphery           1653         943       1196        253       1906
North West Birmingham       1044        1747       2211        464       1508
Northern Periphery           417         350        417         67         484
Northern Suburbs             239         309        345         36         275
South West Birmingham       3136        1999       2280        281       3417
Suburban Ring North          666        1145       1386        241         907
Suburban Ring South          856        1342       1602        260       1116
Birmingham                  9364       10551      12713       2163      11526



                                   2) 1 April 3) 1 April
                                        2002       2003 4) year on 5) Newly
                                    Waiting Waiting           year     arising
                           1) HA      List in    List in change (3-   need in
Housing Associations      Relets       Need       Need           2) year (1+4)
City Centre                  200         184        202         18         218
East Birmingham              415         412        511         99         514
Eastern Periphery             63          65         83         18          81
North West Birmingham        872         343        434         91         963
Northern Periphery            39          42         50           8         47
Northern Suburbs              87          59         65           6         93
South West Birmingham        183         274        312         38         221
Suburban Ring North          163         154        187         33         196
Suburban Ring South          308         359        429         70         378
Birmingham                  2330        1892       2273        381       2711
Total Newly Arising
Need (Totals in col 5)                                                  14237




                                          14
Table A1.7    Notional social rented coming through each year including
transfers




                                                                              Maisonettes
                        1 and 2 bed




                                          Bungalows




                                                                              and 3 bed
                                                                  houses




                                                                                                 houses



                                                                                                            houses
                                                                  2 bed




                                                                                                 3 bed



                                                                                                            4 bed




                                                                                                                         Total
                        Flats




                                                                              flats
City Centre              624               7                         5               183          21           7       848
East Birmingham          946              42                       128               209         246           9      1580
Eastern Periphery        923             125                       173               256         292          35      1804
North West Birmingham   1421              45                       249               243         273          28      2259
Northern Periphery       179              13                        29               101         183           5       510
Northern Suburbs         176              53                        22                82          48           2       383
South West              1968             221                       304               499         555          61      3609
Suburban Ring North      591              48                        99               123         200          13      1074
Suburban Ring South      663              76                       178               119         397           3      1436
Birmingham              7363             684                      1177              1843        2261         176     13503

Table A1.8    Aggregated demand by preferred HMA as at 1 April 2003

                                                                              Maisonettes
                        1 and 2 bed




                                          Bungalows




                                                                              and 3 bed




                                                                                                 houses
                                                                  houses




                                                                                                            houses
                                                                  2 bed




                                                                                                 3 bed



                                                                                                            4 bed




                                                                                                                         Total
                        Flats




                                                                              flats


City Centre              632               1                        76                96          57          53       916
East Birmingham          877              28                       609               209         817         351      2892
Eastern Periphery       1038              94                       290               117         212          50      1801
North West Birmingham   1267              20                       456               192         412         163      2509
Northern Periphery       263              22                       122                38          58          10       513
Northern Suburbs         371              27                       101                27          62          11       599
South West              1628              89                       414               145         209          57      2542
Suburban Ring North     1076              90                       347               138         210          42      1904
Suburban Ring South     1767             117                       501               156         437         138      3116
Birmingham              8930             464                      2934              1151        2511         911     16901

Table A1.9    Ratio of aggregate supply to aggregate demand
                                                                                        Maisonettes
                           1 and 2 bed




                                                      Bungalows




                                                                                        and 3 bed
                                                                           houses




                                                                                                          houses




                                                                                                                      houses
                                                                           2 bed




                                                                                                          3 bed




                                                                                                                      4 bed
                           Flats




                                                                                        flats




City Centre               0.986           5.836                        0.071                1.902         0.373      0.136
East Birmingham           1.078           1.461                        0.210                1.003         0.301      0.026
Eastern Periphery         0.890           1.329                        0.597                2.188         1.376      0.696
North West Birmingham     1.122           2.304                        0.546                1.266         0.662      0.173
Northern Periphery        0.680           0.621                        0.241                2.645         3.129      0.516
Northern Suburbs          0.475           1.964                        0.221                3.035         0.778      0.145
South West                1.209           2.484                        0.735                3.436         2.656      1.065
Suburban Ring North       0.549           0.536                        0.284                0.886         0.954      0.306
Suburban Ring South       0.375           0.649                        0.356                0.765         0.908      0.024




                                                      15
Table A1.10 Delete cases above 1.0 ie: properties with over supply




                                                                                          Maisonettes
                           1 and 2 bed




                                                        Bungalows




                                                                                          and 3 bed




                                                                                                                         houses
                                                                             houses




                                                                                                              houses
                                                                             2 bed




                                                                                                              3 bed




                                                                                                                         4 bed
                           Flats




                                                                                          flats
City Centre               0.986                                          0.071                                0.373      0.136
East Birmingham                                                          0.210                                0.301      0.026
Eastern Periphery         0.890                                          0.597                                           0.696
North West Birmingham                                                    0.546                                0.662      0.173
Northern Periphery        0.680             0.621                        0.241                                           0.516
Northern Suburbs          0.475                                          0.221                                0.778      0.145
South West                                                               0.735
Suburban Ring North       0.549             0.536                        0.284                0.886           0.954      0.306
Suburban Ring South       0.375             0.649                        0.356                0.765           0.908      0.024

Table A1.11 Reverse the power of the coefficient in Table A1.10



                                                                                Maisonettes
                        1 and 2 bed




                                            Bungalows




                                                                                and 3 bed
                                                                    houses




                                                                                                   houses



                                                                                                                houses
                                                                    2 bed




                                                                                                   3 bed



                                                                                                                4 bed
                        Flats




                                                                                flats                                    Total
City Centre             0.014                                       0.929                        0.627         0.864      2.44
East Birmingham                                                     0.790                        0.699         0.974      2.46
Eastern Periphery       0.110                                       0.403                        0.000         0.304      0.82
North West Birmingham                                               0.454                        0.338         0.827      1.62
Northern Periphery      0.320            0.379                      0.759                                      0.484      1.94
Northern Suburbs        0.525                                       0.779                        0.222         0.855      2.38
South West                                                          0.265                                                 0.26
Suburban Ring North     0.451            0.464                      0.716         0.114          0.046         0.694      2.48
Suburban Ring South     0.625            0.351                      0.644         0.235          0.092         0.976      2.92

Table A1.12 Percentage of each property type in demand areas
                                                                                Maisonettes
                        1 and 2 bed




                                            Bungalows




                                                                                and 3 bed
                                                                    houses




                                                                                                   houses



                                                                                                                houses
                                                                    2 bed




                                                                                                   3 bed



                                                                                                                4 bed




                                                                                                                            Total
                        Flats




                                                                                flats




City Centre                0.6                                       38.2                          25.8         35.5      100
East Birmingham                                                      32.1                          28.4         39.6      100
Eastern Periphery        13.5                                        49.3                                       37.2      100
North West Birmingham                                                28.1                          20.9         51.1      100
Northern Periphery       16.5             19.5                       39.1                                       24.9      100
Northern Suburbs         22.0                                        32.7                               9.3     35.9      100
South West                                                          100.0                                                 100
Suburban Ring North      18.1             18.7                       28.8             4.6           1.8         27.9      100
Suburban Ring South      21.4             12.0                       22.0             8.0           3.1         33.4      100
Birmingham               11.9              7.3                       30.7             3.2          11.8         35.1      100




                                                        16