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europe_poland by deiney

VIEWS: 9 PAGES: 4

									Poland: Current Economic Conditions
Poland - Real GDP Growth
Constant Prices
Percent Change, Year Ago

• • • • •

Economic growth is estimated to be 5.8% in 1998. Lower inflation from sagging global commodity and manufacturing prices. Interest rates less sensitive to portfolio investment. Monetary policy can be eased. Zloty’s position against dollar down steadily since float. Equity market one of the most successful of former Eastern Bloc countries. Poland’s equity market felt financial collapse in Russia.

8 7 6 5 4 3

•
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Source: Bloomberg

Poland - Inflation Rate
Consumer Price Index
Percent Change, Year Ago Percent

Poland - Interest Rates
Short-Term and Long-Term
50 40 30 20 10 0
3 Month Interbank Long Term Bond

100 80 60 40 20 0

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Source: IFS

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Sources: WEFA; Datastream

Poland - Exchange Rate
Zlotys Per US Dollar
PZ/US$ Index

Poland - Equity Index
Warsaw Stock Exchange General Index
25000 20000

0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

15000 10000 5000

3.5 4.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Source: IFS

0

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Source: Bloomberg

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Poland: Current Economic Conditions
Poland - Official Reserves
Total Reserves Minus Gold and as Percent of GDP
US$ Billions Percent

• •

30 25 20 15 10
Reserves Minus Gold - L Reserves as % of GDP - R

20

Foreign inflows main source of Hungary’s foreign exchange reserves. Industrial production down during most of 1998. Unemployment high, but declining. Regional unemployment varies considerably. Poland’s fiscal situation continues to improve. Budget deficit just over 1% of GDP in 1997.

15

• •

10

5 5 0 0

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

Source: IFS

Poland - Current Account Balance
As Percent of GDP
Percent

Poland - Industrial Production
Industrial Production Index
Percent Change, Year Ago

5 0 -5

20 10 0 -10

-10 -20 -15 -20 -30 -40

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Source: WEFA

Source: IFS

Poland - Unemployment
Unemployment Rate
Percent Percent

Poland - Budget Balance
Government Surplus/Deficit as Percent of GDP
1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6

17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Source: IFS

-7

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Source: Datastream

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Poland: International Trade
Poland - Composition of Exports 1997
Mineral fuels 7% Food & live animals 12% Machinery & equipment 21% Other 3%

• •

Poland’s two main export categories: manufactured goods and chemicals, and machinery and equipment. Germany is Poland’s most significant trading partner. Germany receives 34% of Polish exports and provides 27% of Polish imports. Export levels held steady in 1998 despite zloty devaluation. Poland’s trade with Russia could decline this year from Russian currency crisis. Trade balance still negative – import levels high.

Manufactured goods, chemicals 57%

• • •

So urce: Eco no mist Intelligence Unit

Poland - Composition of Imports 1997
Other Food & live 5% animals 8% Mineral fuels 9%

Poland - Trade Balance
Merchandise Exports, Imports, and Balance
US$ Billions

6 4

Exports Imports Trade Balance

Manufactured goods, chemicals 42%

2 0 -2

Machinery & equipment 36%
So urce: Eco no mist Intelligence Unit

-4

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Source: IFS

Poland - Destination of Exports 1996

Poland - Origin of Imports 1996

Other 34%

Germany 34%

Germany 27% Other 39%

UK Russia 4% 7% Netherlands US Italy France 4% 6% 5% 6%
So urce: Eco no mist Intelligence Unit

US 2% France Netherlands 4% 5%
So urce: Eco no mist Intelligence Unit

Italy 10% Russia UK 7% 6%

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Poland: Finance
Poland - Foreign Direct Investment
Foreign Investment Flows
US$ Billions

• • •

Foreign direct investment up since opening of Polish economy in early 1990s. Foreign liabilities as % of GDP constant during this time. Poland’s population growth rate down since early 1980s. Exception: period right after demise of communism. Poland’s retention of land ownership during Soviet control led to emergence of market-driven enterprise. Germany is critical to Polish trade. Germany overtook former Soviet Union as Poland’s major trade partner.

5 4 3 2 1 0

• •
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98
Source: IFS

Poland - Foreign Liabilities
As Percent of GDP
Percent Percent

Poland - Population Growth Rate
Population Growth Rate
1.00 0.80 0.60

20

15

10 0.40 5 0.20 0.00

0

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

Source: International Financial Statistics

Source: IFS

Poland - Historical Destinations of Exports
Exports as Percent of Poland's World Exports
Percent Percent

Poland - Historical Origins of Imports
Imports as Percent of Poland's World Imports
42

40
Germany Russia (U.S.S.R.) United States United Kingdom

30

34 25 17
Germany Russia (U.S.S.R.) United States United Kingdom

20

10

8 0

0

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

Sources: Direction of Trade; Economist Intelligence Unit

Sources: Direction of Trade; Economist Intelligence Unit

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