asia_indonesia by deiney

VIEWS: 56 PAGES: 6

									Indonesia: Current Economic Conditions
Indonesia - Real GDP Growth
1990 Prices
Percent Change, Year Ago

• •

10

Real GDP is estimated to fall 13% in 1998 as a consequence of the Asian financial crisis. The country has been plagued by riots: violence and government corruption. The CPI rose over 77% in 1998, highest level since 1967. For 1998, through September, the rupiah had lost 70% of its value, and the stock market has lost over 40% of its pre-crisis value.

8

• •

6

4

2

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

Source: IFS

Indonesia - Inflation Rate
Consumer Price Index
Percent Change, Year Ago Percent

Indonesia - Short-Term Interest Rate
3 Month Interbank Rate
70 60

100 80

50 60 40 20 10 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Source: IFS

40 30 20

0

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Source: Datastream

Indonesia - Exchange Rate
Rupiah per US Dollar
RI/US$ Index

Indonesia - Equity Index
Jakarta Composite Index
800 700 600 500 400 300 200

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Source: IFS

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Source: Bloomberg

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Indonesia: Current Economic Conditions
Indonesia - Official Reserves
Total Reserves Minus Gold and as Percent of GDP
US$ Billions Percent

•

25
Reserves Minus Gold - L Reserves as % of GDP - R

16 14 12

During October 1998 the rupiah gained 40% against the dollar, as the government used capital from the IMF and other sources to stabilize the rupiah. Official reserves declined significantly until March 1998, when the rupiah began to appreciate.

20

•

15 10 10 8 5 6 4

• The unemployment rate is nearly 16% and the poverty rate is accelerating. • Low prices in world markets, production of intermediate industrial goods has soared.

0

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Sources: IFS; Milken Institute

Indonesia - Current Account Balance
As Percent of GDP
Percent

Indonesia - Industrial Production
Intermediate Industrial Goods
Percent Change, Year Ago

2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4

120 100 80 60 40 20 0

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Source: Datastream

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Source: IFS

Indonesia - Unemployment Rate
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent Percent

Indonesia - Budget Balance
Government Surplus/Deficit as Percent of GDP
0 -2

16 14 12 10 8 6

-4 -6 -8

4 2 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Source: Datastream

-10

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Source: Datastream

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VI-34

Indonesia: International Trade
Indonesia - Composition of Exports 1996
Crude oil & products 13% Natural gas 9% Plywood 6% Other 59% Ready-made garments 5% Textiles Rubber 4% 4%
So urce: Eco no mist Intelligence Unit

• • • • •

Indonesia’s trade surplus for 1998 is estimated to be double last year’s surplus of $11.8 billion. Surplus increase resulting from a 34% drop in imports after the rupiah’s depreciation. Exports fell only 6% in 1998 as the rupiah’s depreciation helped exports remain competitive. Indonesia exports over 44% of its goods to Asia. Indonesia exports mainly primary products and laborintensive goods.

Indonesia - Composition of Imports 1996
Raw materials Others 4% 7% Fuels & lubricants 8% Food, drinks & tobacco 10% Chemicals 14%
5

Indonesia - Trade Balance
Merchandise Exports, Imports, and Balance
US$ Billions

Machinery & transport equipment 41%

4 3 2 1 0

Exports Imports Trade Balance

Other manufactures 16%

-1

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Source: IFS

So urce: Eco no mist Intelligence Unit

Indonesia - Destination of Exports 1996

Indonesia - Origin of Imports 1996

Japan 23% Other 40% US 13% Netherlands 3% China 4% Singapore S. Korea 10% 7% S. Korea 6% Other 41%

Japan 20%

US 13% Singapore 8% Germany 6%

Australia 6%

So urce: Eco no mist Intelligence Unit

So urce: Eco no mist Intelligence Unit

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Indonesia: Finance
Indonesia - Foreign Direct Investment
Foreign Investment Inflows
US$ Billions

•

2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5

Massive capital flight since the Asian crisis. No confidence in the banking system encouraged many Indonesians and foreigners to keep money outside the country. Indonesia has $140 billion in public and private debt. Indonesia has been able to restructure its $80 billion in private debt with foreign lenders.

• •

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Source: IFS

Indonesia - Portfolio Investment
Inflows
US$ Billions Percent

Indonesia - Foreign Debt Service Due
As Percent of GDP
13

4
Inflows into Indonesia

2 0 -2 -4
Note: Data not available for 1991Q1, Q4,1992Q1,Q3,Q4 Note: Outflows not available

12 11 10 9 8

-6

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Source: IFS

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Source: Datastream

Indonesia - Foreign Debt
As Percent of GDP
Percent Percent

Indonesia - Government Debt
As Percent of GDP
90 80 70 60

160 140 120 100

50 80 60 40 40 30 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Source: Datastream

20

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Source: Datastream

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Indonesia: Banking and Trade
Indonesia - Sectors of the Economy 1997

• •

Overall economic recovery will be slow. Gross fixed capital investment has decreased by 25% in 1998. Domestic investment has declined 44%, and private consumption dropped 15% in 1998, as the rupiah’s collapse. Agriculture may be the only sector to grow in 1998, as both manufacturing declined 12%, and construction fell 35%. Capital flight a continuing problem.

Other 17% Transport & comm. 7% Trade, hotels & restaurants 17% Construction 8%
So urce: Eco no mist Intelligence Unit

Agriculture 16% Mining & quarrying 10%

•

•

Manufacturing 25%

•

Indonesia - Capital Flight
Investment Outflows
US$ Billions

Indonesia - Gross Fixed Capital Investment
As Percent of GDP
Percent

4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Source: Datastream

37 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Source: Datastream

Indonesia - Consumption
Real Private Consumption
Percent Change, Year Ago US$ Billions

Indonesia - Trade with US
Export and Import Levels
0.8 0.6
Exports Imports Trade Balance

20

10 0.4 0 0.2 0.0 -10 -0.2 -20 -0.4

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Source: Datastream

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Source: WEFA

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March 10, 1999 www.milken-inst.org

Indonesia: State of the Economy
Indonesia's Inflation Rates
CPI vs. CPI Food
Percent Change, Year Ago

•

150
CPI (Food) CPI

The rise in prices of basic goods, such as rice and cooking oil, has led to violent protests across Indonesia. The International Labor Organization projected that 80 million people, almost half of Indonesia’s population, will fall below the poverty line (of $1 a day) by the end of 1998. Oil and gas exports fell 32% in 1998, and petroleum production has also dropped amid the country’s turmoil.

100

•

50

•
0

-50

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Source: IFS; Bloomberg

Indonesia - Role of Trade
As Percent of GDP
Percent Percent

Indonesia Old and Young Dependents
Young and Elderly as Percent of Total Popuation
60
0 - 19 years old 60 years and older

30
Exports Imports

25 20

50 40 30

15 20 10 5 10 0

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

Sources: IFS; WEFA

Source: United Nations

Indonesia vs. US Interest Rates
Short-Term Interest Rates
Percent

Indonesia - Production of Petroleum
Crude Petroleum
Percent Change, Year Ago

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Indonesia Deposits 3 Month US Fed Funds Rate

100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Source: Datastream

-60

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Source: IFS

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March 10, 1999 www.milken-inst.org

Homer
VI-38

Index

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