Green House Gas Emissions and Population by alendar

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                                                                               Who are the greenhouse gas emitters?


       Green House Gas Emissions                                           • 20 countries* account for over 80 per cent of the
                                                                             world’s greenhouse gas emissions.
             and Population
                                                                           • 4 countries* account for around 50 per cent of
                          Peter McDonald
                               Director                                      emissions.
        Australian Demographic and Social Research Institute
                  The Australian National University                       * European Union counted as one country




                                                                        Figure 2. The 20 largest greenhouse gas emitters: per capita emissions
    Figure 1. The 20 largest greenhouse gas emitters: total emissions    including and excluding emissions from land-use change and forestry, c. 2004
    and cumulative share (%) of global emissions, c. 2004 (Garnaut)     (Garnaut)




                  Emissions per capita                                                    The significance of China
• The largest per capita emitters, Australia, USA, Canada,
  Russia and Saudi Arabia are all major food and/or energy                • Per unit of GDP, China’s emissions are four
  producers for the rest of the world, and this why their per               times those of the USA.
  capita emissions are so high.
                                                                          • With China’s GDP growing at 9 per cent per
• Three of these countries, USA, Canada and Australia, have                 annum, its GDP will double in eight years.
  high levels of immigration because they are the world’s
                                                                          • All else being equal, China’ emissions will
  three most popular destinations.
                                                                            double in eight years.
• However, adding more people to these countries does not                 • The rise is China’s emissions in these eight
  add proportionally to their emissions because a high                      years will be about 140 times Australia’s planned
  proportion of production in these countries is not consumed               reduction in emissions over the same time
  within the country. Especially true of Canada and Australia.              period.




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        UN Population Projections, 20 Largest Emitters
                   Medium Variant, 2010-2050, (thousands)                                                               GDP or Population?
                                                                                       • The future level of emissions in these countries has very
Country               2010        2050         Country              2010       2050
                      1354.1      1417.0                            110.6      129.0
                                                                                         little to do with their population growth.
China                                          Mexico
USA                   317.6       403.9        Rep Korea            48.5       44.1
                                                                                       • In the next eight years, China’s population will hardly
EU(27)*               499.4       515.3        Australia            21.5       28.7
                                                                                         change at all, yet its emissions will double.
Indonesia             232.5       288.1        Myanmar              50.5       63.4
Brazil                195.4       218.5        South Africa         50.5       56.8    • Russia’s emissions will rise despite a fall in its population.
Russia                140.4       116.1        Iran                 75.1       97.0
India                 1214.5      1613.8       Nigeria              158.3      289.1   • Changes in GDP drive changes in emissions, not changes
Japan                 127.0       101.7        Rep Congo            67.8       147.5     in population.
Malaysia              27.9        39.7         Thailand             68.1       73.4

Canada                33.9        44.4         Saudi Arabia         26.2       43.6
 * EU projection from Eurostat.




     GDP, GDP per capita and Population               Concentration of greenhouse      World, 1950 - 2050: Total Population (in billions) and Average
                                                      gases in the atmosphere                   Number of Children (Total Fertility Rate, TFR) High, Medium and Low Variants




                                                                                       Source: UN Population Division (1997): World Population Prospects, 1950-2050.
                                          (Garnaut)                                    The 1996 Edition. (Annex I and II)
                                                                                       Chart: G.K. Heilig, 1996, IIASA-LUC




                         2000-2005 Fertility = 4+
                             (61 countries)                                             Emissions and reduction of high birth rates
• Angola, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Burundi, Chad, DR Congo,
  Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Malawi, Mali, Niger, Rwanda, Sierra Leone,                   • High fertility countries today are all very poor countries
  Somalia, Uganda, Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Eq. Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia,                  (UAE is the only exception).
  Gambia, Guinea, Kenya, Madagascar, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal,
  Togo, Tanzania, Zambia, Lesotho, Namibia, Swaziland, Cameroon,
  Central African Republic, Comoros, Congo, Djibouti, Ghana, Gabon,                    • A reduction in their fertility rates is an essential step in
  Mauritania, Sao Tome & Principe, Libya, Sudan (44)                                     reducing their levels of poverty.
• Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bhutan, Laos, UAE, Yemen, Palestine (7).
                                                                                       • But reducing their rates of population growth will contribute
• Timor Leste, Micronesia, Papua-New Guinea, Samoa, Solomons,                            little to reduction of emissions. Indeed, if their living
  Vanuatu (6)
                                                                                         standards rise as a result of lower population growth,
• Bolivia, Guatamala, Haiti, French Guiana (4)                                           emissions will increase.




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        Inevitability of population growth                                          Population redistribution
                                                                      • For resource and environmental reasons, humans have
• Success in reducing world population growth in the past 40            been redistributing themselves on the surface of the earth
  years has been astounding.                                            for over 60,000 years.

• To reduce world poverty, we urgently need to revitalise             • We cannot stop redistribution of population across the
  efforts to reduce fertility rates in the remaining countries          globe, rather it needs to ne managed and accommodated
  with high fertility.
                                                                      • Today, Australia is further away from zero migration than it
                                                                        has ever been in its history.
• But we cannot stop world population rising to about nine
  billion. This is the number we reach if world fertility drops to    • Zero net migration for Australia is a fairyland policy. It is not
  two children per woman by 2050.                                       going to happen in the foreseeable future – especially with
                                                                        an open border with New Zealand.




                     Final messages
1.   An over-emphasis on population control as the solution to
     rising global emissions detracts effort away from the
     control of emissions driven by increases in GDP – the
     real problem.
2.   Even then, control of emissions must be done in a way
     that allows economic growth to continue. The rest of the
     world cannot be denied improvements in their standard of
     living. Again, it is fairyland policy to believe that we shall
     all sit back unalarmed as world economic growth sinks.
3.   In relation to population, the real issue is the impact of
     global warming on populations. This is where we should
     be directing our attention.




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