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5. POPULATION AND HOUSING OF WORKFORCE 5.1 Inherent Growth

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5. POPULATION AND HOUSING OF WORKFORCE 5.1 Inherent Growth

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									DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY AND RESOURCES
ONSLOW STRATEGIC INDUSTRIAL AREA
EXPANSION STUDY




5.            POPULATION AND HOUSING OF WORKFORCE

The Pilbara LNG project will have a significant impact on population and housing within the town of
Onslow. The Pilbara LNG project and other industries within the SIA will have three key phases;
construction, operation and de-commissioning. Each of these phases will have different impacts on
the population and housing of Onslow. Typically the construction phase of a project requires many
more workers than the operation and decommissioning phases.

5.1           Inherent Growth
In addition to demand for housing generated by each of the three scenarios discussed in this report
there is also likely to be a inherent growth in the population of Onslow over time. While this growth is
expected to be small it is important that it is still considered in the context of the SIA’s development
and future demand for residential land.

The Onslow Structure Plan suggests that inherent population growth is likely to be minimal without
external stimulus. BHPB’s Multi User Infrastructure Study assumes a growth rate of 0.38% from the
towns 2001 census population of 795 people to 2011. This allows for a small natural growth in
population perhaps resulting from the retention of some of the construction workforce.

Using the same growth rate and without applying multipliers there is assumed to be an inherent
growth in population of approximately 79 people over the 25 year horizon used for each scenario.
This will result in an increase in demand for housing of approximately 27 dwellings.

5.1.1 Construction Workforce

BHPB estimates that a construction workforce which will peak at approximately 2,500 workers is
required for the LNG project. At present BHPB intends to house the majority of this workforce in a
temporary construction camp located adjacent to the plant site. This camp would then be maintained
and used for subsequent construction phases of the project assuming that they proceed within two
years of the previous phase. A number of employees will also be accommodated within the townsite
in residential type dwellings.

There may be significant social benefits to providing some or all of this accommodation within the
Onslow Townsite.

The Shire of Ashburton’s Town Planning Scheme number 7 currently permits the provision of
construction accommodation within the towns tourist precinct. Currently there are two areas zoned for
tourism within the townsite. The first is located adjacent to the Bindi Bindi Aboriginal community and is
approximately 3Ha in area. The second site is adjacent to the current light industrial area near
Beadon Creek. This is a much larger area however it is currently in use for a variety of purposes.

The use of these sites to accommodate construction camps may have benefits for tourism in the
future. If the accommodation is built to an appropriate standard it may be sold to a tourist operator
when there is no longer a need to accommodate the construction workers. Alternatively the site, once
it is fully serviced may be developed as a caravan park with service bays or campsites.


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DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY AND RESOURCES
ONSLOW STRATEGIC INDUSTRIAL AREA
EXPANSION STUDY


Another alternative is to accommodate the construction workforce on land currently zoned urban
development within the existing townsite. To facilitate this, the existing R-Code density of 12.5/30
would need to be increased significantly. This option provides a significant opportunity for the Shire.
When the construction camp is no longer needed the dwellings may be removed and the lots sold for
private residential dwellings.

Based on a density of 80 dwellings per hectare (a Residential coding of R100 taking into account land
required for public open space, roads and other infrastructure- approximately 20% of the maximum
density) an area of approximately 28 Ha is required to accommodate BHPB’s construction workforce.
The proposed tourist site could therefore only accommodate approximately 10% of the construction
workforce for the BHPB project.

The entire construction camp could be developed within the 60Ha of land currently zoned for urban
development with approximately 30Ha of land remaining for other development.

In addition to the BHPB project subsequent downstream industries will also result in additional
population to be housed in Onslow.

Based on the three scenarios identified the estimated maximum construction workforce will be
approximately 2,500 people. This is in effect a ‘maximum case scenario’ and is based on all projects
going ahead based on timelines used to define these. To accommodate this size of population at a
density of 100 dwellings per hectare (R100 zoning) the area of land required is approximately 44 Ha,
including land for infrastructure. Having two large scale projects in parallel in the region may occur
however, it is likely that the proponents will attempt to avoid this in an effort to reduce competition for
resources.




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                                                                                                         299000 mE                         300000 mE        301000 mE           302000 mE   303000 mE                                        304000 mE           305000 mE      306000 mE                         307000 mE          308000 mE




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                                                                                                                            ONSLOW STRATEGIC INDUSTRIAL AREA - Potential Construction Camp Locations - FIGURE 4
I:\300 WI\09252 - Onslow Strategic Industrial\ENG\MapInfo_GIS\ Pot_C_Camp_Loc.PDF
DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY AND RESOURCES
ONSLOW STRATEGIC INDUSTRIAL AREA
EXPANSION STUDY




5.1.2 Construction Camp Infrastructure

Development of temporary construction camps within the townsite presents several infrastructure
opportunities for Onslow. These opportunities are similar for both of the potential ‘in town’ locations. In
both cases the towns existing infrastructure will require significant upgrades to accommodate the
increased population. These upgrades are discussed in detail in Section 6.5 of this report.

In addition to the two ‘in town’ locations identified earlier there may be a requirement to cater for a
significant proportion of the construction workforce for all projects at another location. Depending on
the timing of these projects it may be possible to use the Pilbara LNG camp for subsequent projects.

Tourist Precinct

This option would also ensure that all necessary services (water, sewer, gas, telecommunications)
would be extended to facilitate future development of the site.

Urban Development Land

The construction camp could be designed in such a way that facilitates future residential
development. Infrastructure services and a road network could be developed that support future
residential development.

On Site Camps

The potential exists to create on site camps either within the SIA or on adjacent land to accommodate
the construction workforce. These camps can be located within the buffer zone of the SIA provided
they are temporary accommodation only. Depending on the location of the camp/s the clearing and
earthworks required to facilitate construction will therefore benefit the development of the SIA. If
construction camps for various projects are centralised on a common site there may also be the
potential to share infrastructure and minimise duplication of services.

5.1.3 Operation Workforces

The operational workforce for each project within the SIA will be much smaller than the estimated
construction workforces.

Estimated operational workforces for each scenario have been prepared based on known current
workforces at similar industrial developments. Calculations to determine married and single dwelling
requirements are based on the following simple multipliers:-

         Direct employment is based on operation of the plant only and a 70:30 ratio of married to
         single people;

         Indirect employment is assumed to be 25-30% of the total workforce;

         Consequential employment is assumed to be 25-30% of the total workforce; and

         An average family size of 3 people per household (based on Pilbara average).




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DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY AND RESOURCES
ONSLOW STRATEGIC INDUSTRIAL AREA
EXPANSION STUDY


These multipliers have been taken from the Onslow Structure Plan and have been developed by the
DOIR. Each of these assumptions is explained in greater detail in Appendix 1.

In addition to the Pilbara LNG project, other projects will also have a significant impact on population
and housing in Onslow. The following tables summarise the potential permanent population and
housing implications of each downstream industry proposed in the development scenarios.

It has been assumed that a residential workforce model will be employed by all industries located in
Onslow. This model is preferred by WorleyParsons and the State Government as indicated in the
current Onslow Structure Plan (2003).




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DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY AND RESOURCES
ONSLOW STRATEGIC INDUSTRIAL AREA
EXPANSION STUDY



Table 5 Summary of Population and Housing Impacts by Scenario
                                          Population                                                                            Demographics
                                                                                   TOTAL            Natural                                                    TOTAL        TOTAL
                                                                                  Workforce        Growth @        Married          Single                    Dwelling    Population
      Industry         Direct         Indirect         Consequential              Increase          0.38%         Dwellings        Dwellings   Dependents   Requirement    Increase
    Scenario 1          220              66                 66                         352            79            273              106          273           378          924
    Scenario 2          510             153                153                         816            79            598              245          598           842         2037
    Scenario 3          650             195                195                        1040            79            754              312          754          1066         2575



Table 6 Summary of Population and Housing Impacts by Industry
                                                Population                                                                      Demographics
                                                                                       TOTAL        Natural                                                    TOTAL        TOTAL
                                                                                      Workforce    Growth @        Married          Single                    Dwelling    Population
        Industry              Direct        Indirect         Consequential            Increase      0.38%         Dwellings        Dwellings   Dependents   Requirement    Increase
    BHP LNG Train 1            150             45                 45                        240       79            194               72          194           266          655
    BHP LNG Train 2            70              21                 21                        112                      78               34           78           112          269
    BHP LNG Train 3            70              21                 21                        112                      78               34           78           112          269
    BHP LNG Train 4             70              21                   21                     112                      78                  34       78            112          269
    Methanol                    70              21                   21                     112                      78                  34       78            112          269
    GTL (DME)                   150             45                   45                     240                      168                 72       168           240          576
    Fertilisers
    (Ammonia)                    70              21                  21                     112                       78                 34        78           112          269

    TOTAL                       650            195                  195                     1040      79             754                 312      754          1066         2575
Notes
1        DOIR ration of 70% married to 30% single ratio for the Pilbara Industrial projects has been used.
2        Assumes cohabitation of single status employees.




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DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY AND RESOURCES
ONSLOW STRATEGIC INDUSTRIAL AREA
EXPANSION STUDY



The Shire of Ashburton’s Town Planning Scheme Number 7 identifies approximately 60Ha of land for
future urban development to the south of the existing Onslow townsite. Depending on the density of
development this area would accommodate approximately 480 dwellings (8 per hectare) including
roads, parks and other infrastructure. At increased densities the town could accommodate more
dwellings however consideration must be given to the impacts that this would have on lifestyle and
amenity within the town.

Table 7 Potential Future Dwellings by Zoning Density

                  Zoning (R- Code Density)                     Potential Dwellings*        Average Lot Size
                                                                  (approximate)

                                     10                                     480                1,000 m2

                                   12.5                                     650                   750 m2

                                     20                                    1000                   500 m2

                                     30                                    1700                   330 m2

* Note:- Figures based on DPI Country Land Development Program 2005, Onslow Housing Discussion Paper. Table 7 uses
dwelling densities established by the WAPC known as the R-Codes. These densities refer to the number of dwellings that are
provided per hectare. An R-Code of 10 therefore represents a density of 10 dwelling units per hectare. Table 7 reduces the
number of dwellings by 20% to allow for the provision of roads, parks and other infrastructure.

Additional dwellings could also be catered for within the existing townsite on existing residential lots.
This would require larger residential lots to be subdivided into multiple lots to allow for the
construction of new dwellings. Although this scenario is possible it is unlikely that a significant amount
of this redevelopment will occur until such time as the existing supply of greenfields residential land is
exhausted. As such estimates for increased dwelling numbers in the existing town site through
subdivision of existing single residential lots have not been included in this report.

It is currently estimated that there are approximately 66 vacant lots within the existing townsite. It is
assumed that these lots will be developed in the future as demand for residential land increases.
Discussions with local government staff and real estate agents has only identified one vacant lot
currently for sale with a further five lots potentially available through private sale; they are therefore
not included in development potential estimates, however, clearly the potential exists to utilise some
of these lots for residential development purposes.

Tables 8 - 10 compares the total number of dwellings required for each scenario in comparison to the
total number of potential dwellings available through development of the existing urban development
area, excluding existing vacant lots.




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DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY AND RESOURCES
ONSLOW STRATEGIC INDUSTRIAL AREA
EXPANSION STUDY



Table 8 Potential Future Dwellings (R12.5) – Operational Workforce

                            Scenario          No. Dwellings Required                 Remaining Housing Stock
                                                (incl natural growth)

                                 1                          378                                   272

                                 2                          842                                  - 192

                                 3                          1066                                 - 416

Table 9 Potential Future Dwellings (R20) – Operational Workforce

                          Scenario           No. Dwellings Required                  Remaining Housing Stock

                                1                          378                                       622

                                2                          842                                       158

                                3                         1066                                    - 66

Table 10 Potential Future Dwellings (R30) – Operational Workforce

                            Scenario          No. Dwellings Required                       Remaining Housing

                                 1                          378                                  1322

                                 2                          842                                   858

                                 3                         1066                                   634

Tables 8 - 10 illustrate that to cater for the increased demand for residential dwellings resulting from
Scenario One within the area currently set aside for urban development the existing density of 12.5
dwellings per hectare is sufficient. To cater for Scenarios Two and Three an increase in density
between 20 and 30 dwellings per hectare is required.

5.2           Demographics
A simple demographic model has been applied to determine the likely composition of new households
in Onslow. The same factors used in the Onslow Structure Plan have been used here assuming three
person households for each of the potential scenarios.

Table 11 Summary of Population Demographics by Scenario
                                                                                                                                    3
Family Unit                                                                0.3                 0.5                  0.2           people
                                               Married                  Infant               Primary          Secondary
                           Single             Worker and               (under 5             School (6-       School (12-17
                          Workers              Partner                  years)              12 years)           years)             Total
Scenario 1                  106                  545                      82                   136                55                818
Scenario 2                  245                 1195                     179                   299               120               1793
Scenario 3                  312                 1509                     226                   377               151               2263



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DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY AND RESOURCES
ONSLOW STRATEGIC INDUSTRIAL AREA
EXPANSION STUDY



Table 12 Summary of Population Demographics by Industry Type
                                                                                                                                 3
Family Unit                                                                0.3                0.5                0.2           people
                                                Married                 Infant              Primary        Secondary
                               Single          Worker and              (under 5            School (6-     School (12-17
Industry                      Workers           Partner                 years)             12 years)         years)             Total
BHP LNG Train
1*                                72                 389                   58                 97                 39              583
BHP LNG Train 2                   34                 157                   24                 39                 16              235
BHP LNG Train 3                   34                 157                   24                 39                 16              235
BHP LNG Train 4                   34                 157                   24                 39                 16              235
Methanol                          34                 157                   24                 39                 16              235
GTL (DME)                         72                 336                   50                 84                 34              504
Fertilisers
(Ammonia)                         34                 157                   24                 39                 16              235

TOTAL                            312                1509                  226                 377                151            2263

                               *Note: Inherent population growth has been included in Train 1 estimates

Tables 11 - 12 illustrate that even the development of Scenario 1 will result in a significant increase in
demand for school and child related services.

Consideration must also be given to how the demographics of Onslow might be changed as a result
of future development. Currently the median age of Onslow’s population is 47 while for the wider
Pilbara region and Western Australia as a whole the median is 33 years of age (Onslow Structure
Plan, 2003).

5.3           Social Considerations
The town of Onslow offers its residents a broad range of social services, but provision is limited as
most services are provided from other larger towns within the region or from Perth. Many services are
provided on a fly in – fly out basis and therefore are not available at all times. For example, Doctors
services are only available on Mondays, Tuesdays and Thursdays with specialist services available
on a monthly or less frequent basis. Appendix 3 summarises existing social services provided in
Onslow.

Significant increases to Onslow’s population would result in increased demand for these services and
may therefore warrant the permanent location of these services within the town. The lack of services
may also impede the town’s ability to attract a workforce for industry within the SIA.

Other social services such as schools, sporting facilities and other recreational facilities are available
within the townsite. However, with the exception of the new school under construction, many of the
town’s existing facilities are run down and will require significant upgrading.

The construction phases of industries that are developed within the SIA will require significant
numbers of people to locate within Onslow or in ‘on site’ construction camps. It seems preferable that
at least some of the construction population is located within the Onslow townsite. This would have


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DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY AND RESOURCES
ONSLOW STRATEGIC INDUSTRIAL AREA
EXPANSION STUDY


significant short term economic benefits for the town site however, consideration must be given to the
potential negative impacts that these fluctuations in population might have such as the increase in
demand for services, changes to the demographics of the population and distortion of the local
economy.

It is recommended that a full Social Impact Assessment is undertaken in order to assess the potential
impacts of various population changes on the town of Onslow.




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