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Thailand and Technology Trends

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					Gartner Predicts 2010 Local Program


   Thailand and
 Technology Trends



              Thaweesak Koanantakool
                   Vice President,
National Science and Technology Development Agency
                  29 January 2010
         Thailand and Technology Trends
      Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010
           Agenda
• General Trends facing Thailand
• Thailand – quick and slow
• Gartner's Hype Cycle and
  Thailand
• Social Media Concerns
• Challenges for Thailand's
  Broadband development
• Other little BIG issues
    – Security, Privacy, Digital Rights


   Thailand and Technology Trends
Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010   2
      General Trends facing Thailand
• Climate Change
• Concerns for food, water and energy/fuels
• Aging Societies
• Economic Regionalization –
  AFTA → Asia Community (ASEAN+3,+6)
• Broadband access (wired/wireless)




                Thailand and Technology Trends
             Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010   3
      Thailand – quick and slow adopter
• Quick adopter of many technologies
  – Color TV introduced before UK
• Slow adopter of many regulatory practices
  –   ISDN (slow, late, short-lived, unproductive)
  –   Establishing Regulatory Body
  –   WIFI (slow regulatory announcement)
  –   3G (sluggish and unclear plan)
  –   WiMAX (too many reservations)
  –   Digital Broadcast (slow, private sector driven)
  –   Freeing spectrum for Digital Communications (unheard of)
  –   Last-mile unbundling (hardly happens)
  –   Number portability, TLS, USO, etc...
                    Thailand and Technology Trends
                 Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010         4
                          Gartner
                       Hype Cycle 2009




   Thailand and Technology Trends
Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010   5
         From Smart phone to
 an ebook reader, web browser and game




Apple iPad, launched Jan 28, 2010
                   Thailand and Technology Trends
                Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010   6
     Mobile Device plays all “matured”
    applications in Gartner's Hype Cycle


Speech
Recognition




                 Thailand and Technology Trends
              Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010   7
     Mobile Device plays all “matured”
    applications in Gartner's Hype Cycle
           Schmap Geo Tweeter
           Schmap.com
Location   Another fine Geo Social tool comes
Aware      from the developers of the amazing
Apps       local search service Schmap.
           Schmap publishes local guides,
           providing a wealth of information to
           visitors of many major urban centers
           around the Globe... access
           information, photos, reviews and
           ratings on places of interest and
           much more. The company also has
           developed a number of location
           sharing tools, widgets, and services
           including the Schmap Geo-Tweet
           utility.
                     Thailand and Technology Trends
                  Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010   8
     Mobile Device plays all “matured”
    applications in Gartner's Hype Cycle
           พระทนงสถตยมโหฬาร


Location
Aware
Apps




                 Thailand and Technology Trends
              Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010   9
     Mobile Device plays all “matured”
    applications in Gartner's Hype Cycle


Social
Networking




                Thailand and Technology Trends
             Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010   10
                 Which screen will you
                            be using?




   Thailand and Technology Trends
Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010   11
It all depends on the bandwidth...




          Thailand and Technology Trends
       Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010   12
Broadband status: World




     Thailand and Technology Trends
  Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010   13
Does broadband availability
 contribute to economy?




   Economy                    Broadband




       Thailand and Technology Trends
    Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010   14
   Thailand and Technology Trends
Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010   15
Take a closer look into mobile technology
• Transistor radios
• Cassette tape, Walkman         [TM]




• Mobile phones


• Bluetooth earphones
• Television in smart phones
• Everything in smart phone



                Thailand and Technology Trends
             Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010   16
Applications, Bandwidth and Technology
                                Source: Verizon




    Source: http://www.engineersireland.ie/sector_papers/Next_Generation_Broadband.pdf
                       Thailand and Technology Trends
                    Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010                              17
    Do we end up with three screens?
• จอเลก
• จอกลาง
• จอใหญ/จอยกษ




  All capable of IP connection?


                 Thailand and Technology Trends
              Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010   18
  Thailand is a fast adopter of Social Media




Social media needs “always-on” “everywhere” services.
Speed is optional...
Picture source: slideshare.net
                        Thailand and Technology Trends
                     Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010   19
Thais hardly concern with the hidden and
           potential problems
Five scary things That Facebook Knows About You
1. Facebook Saves Things That Have Been Deleted
   – Whatever status updates or unglamorous pictures of you are still inside
     the server somewhere. A word of advice, think carefully and be tactful
     when uploading photos or making a status update.
2. Facebook Knows Your Viewing History
   – Log of clicks are used by Facebook to determine your viewing history.
     Hence, it knows whose photos you are going through.
3. Facebook Knows How Often You Interact With Or Click On The
Profile Of A Given Person
   – Depending on the number of visits you made on your friend’s profile,
     Facebook uses this data as a method to judge who your good friends are.
     This is visible through Facebook search where your friends are not listed
     in alphabetical order but by the people who you interact most with.
     important is that people should be more tactful when they are online. In
     the real world, people may forgive and forget but in the virtual world, there
     are always traces of data that could be used against you.
                        Thailand and Technology Trends
                     Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010                     20
   We hardly concern with the hidden and
            potential problems
Five scary things That Facebook Knows About You

4. Facebook Carries Out Psychological Tests On New Features
    – Instead of doing group sampling or beta testing on their new features,
      Facebook does the above plus eye ball tracking to get an idea of where
      you are looking at.
5. Facebook Employees Are Able To Retrieve Any Message You’ve
Sent Out
    – Since all data are stored in the server, employees have the clearance to
      pull out any data about you through a simple query on your profile.
    – Whether the interview was a hoax or made-up, I think what’s more
      important is that people should be more tactful when they are online. In
      the real world, people may forgive and forget but in the virtual world, there
      are always traces of data that could be used against you.

Source: http://therumpus.net/2010/01/conversations-about-the-internet-5-
anonymous-facebook-employee/?full=yes
                         Thailand and Technology Trends
                      Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010                     21
From GSM to LTE to Femtocell




                                                    WiMAX
                                                   Femtocell




http://wimaxcomnet.blogspot.com/2008_02_01_archive.html
            Thailand and Technology Trends
         Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010          22
      Backbone network, Access network
• National Broadband plan is needed
• Optical fiber backbones – 1gb/s, 100gb/s
• Access network (last mile)
  –   Copper (ADSL, VDSL)
  –   Fiber (FTTH)
  –   Wireless LAN (WiFi, WiMAX)
  –   Cellular access (3G – HSPA; LTE; Femtocell)
• Regulatory arrangement
  – Who does what?
  – When
  – Smart use of RF Spectrum
                   Thailand and Technology Trends
                Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010   23
            Broadband Challenge 1:

• Concession trap
   – Delay in 3G licensing & deployment
   – Problems with existing concessions and loss of
     revenues to state-owned telcos once 2G providers
     moving their customers over to their new 3G network
   – State-owned telcos: rolling back of privatization and
     lack of incentives to compete


   Our Entangled Regulatory
Environment needs a big clean up
                   Thailand and Technology Trends
                Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010      24
               Existing Mobile Concessions
         Operator          Network          Concession           Period          Revenue
                                            Granted by        (Year expired)     Sharing

            AIS            900 GSM              TOT               25 years       15-30%
                                                                   (2015)

           DTAC           1800 GSM              CAT               27 years       12-30%
                                                                   (2017)

         Orange           1800 GSM              CAT               16 years       25-30%
       (True move)                                                 (2013)

            DPC           1800 GSM              CAT               16 years       25-30%
                                                                   (2015)



       End the concessions sooner...
Source: Adapted from http://www.ndaventures.com/Thailand_Telecom_Brief.pdf p.6
                               Thailand and Technology Trends
                            Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010                        25
                     Challenge 2:

 • FTTx/ FTTH for Thailand
   – Upgrading from copper to optical fiber
   – Migrating to IP-based/ packet-switched networks
   – Appropriate investment models – Government
     funding? Public-private partnership? Private
     investment? Combination of methods?



New technologies needs solid national
   open access network backbone
                  Thailand and Technology Trends
               Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010   26
                    Challenge 3:

• Some pressing regulatory issues
  – Strong competition policy to discourage abuse of
    power by incumbents
     • Account separation/ structural separation
  – Open access backbone network
     • Reducing redundancy
  – Unbundling policy for last miles
  – Hand-off policy for value-added services
  – Consumer protection: Price, speed & quality of
    service


                 Thailand and Technology Trends
              Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010   27
Infrastructure Sweet Spots and
        Happy Operators




        Thailand and Technology Trends
     Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010   28
                    Challenge 4:

• Bridging the digital divide
  – Moving forwards technologically while ensuring
    nobody is left behind
  – Appropriate investment models to encourage
    broadband deployment in rural and other cost-
    prohibitive areas
     • Deployment of wired + wireless networks
     • Appropriate USO/ funding mechanisms

  Watch for LTE and Femtocells,
and be watchful for 3G and WiMAX.
                 Thailand and Technology Trends
              Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010   29
                The Way Forward - 1

• Addressing management and regulatory issues
   – End of concession era
   – ICT2020 and the national broadband plan?
• Upgrading the networks
   – Backbone: Complete migration from copper to fiber
   – Last miles: 100% coverage using a combination of wired and
     wireless technologies
• Investing in infrastructure with “sustainability” in
  mind
   – Gradual upgrades
   – Shared resources with little redundancy/ Open access networks
   – Reuse of equipment where possible


                    Thailand and Technology Trends
                 Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010             30
             The Way Forward - 2
• Clean up the Concession Contracts
• Redefine TOT/CAT Infrastructure Sweet Spots
• Create happy operator environment –
  level-playing field
• Creating local industry on broadband
  infrastructure
  – Service Innovations by Thai Companies
  – Export potential
• Protecting & educating consumers
  – Focus on price, speed, and quality of broadband
    services
  – Channels to address grievance
                 Thailand and Technology Trends
              Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010   31
                Last, but not least
Other issues
  – Security threats for Internet and Cloud Computing
  – Privacy
  – DRM




  “There are many good plans in Thailand.
  You've got to predict whether they
  can be implemented and who will do it.”

                  Thailand and Technology Trends
               Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010   32
                 Q&A




            Thank you for your attention
            htk@nectec.or.th
   Thailand and Technology Trends
Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010   33

				
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